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Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

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ParanoidDrone

Smash Master
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Really though, what super heavy character has worked in Smash (other than Snake)?

What are they missing to make them more viable?
In a game where mobility is king, frame data is the heir apparent, and combos are much more freestyle and character-dependent than a normal fighting game, belonging to an archetype that's defined by being slow, laggy, and large scores a hat trick on the "get ****ed" meter.

On paper, heavy characters kill earlier than most characters, survive longer due to their weight, and generally have something to bypass or threaten shield. In practice, their susceptibility to combos makes their weight moot, their poor recovery makes them vulnerable to gimps, and their shield punish options aren't generally fast enough to catch people with.

At the risk of sparking yet another nerf/buff discussion, I think an interesting solution would be to change the recovery paradigm. Right now, lightweights tend to have vastly superior recoveries to heavyweights. What if that was reversed, where lightweight characters have poor recoveries and heavyweights have excellent (or at least long distance) ones? Given how important the offstage and recovery game is to Smash, that could possibly go a long way towards letting heavyweights survive long enough to take advantage of their weight in the first place. Rage helps but it can only go so far when you can be gimped by a sex kick at the ledge.

Failing that, I think we can look to DK for cues. He has good tilts and an excellent grab game, so he can space the opponent out and has an answer to shield pressure that they must respect. Ganondorf isn't quite on the same level but he has surprisingly decent frame data.
 
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EternalFlare

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 13, 2015
Messages
306
Oh geez, I take a break from Smash to splurge on Overwatch for a week (reached rank 60 woot) and talk blows up about two of my co-mains in my absence, of course.

Regarding Ness's design and its inherent strengths and flaws: Why is this thread so darn mercurial about Ness's viability? Seemed only a little while ago when everyone was speaking how overrated he is and how we're approaching the death of the character, and then just a couple posts later people are saying his kit's pretty strong even despite its flaws and that you can never count him out. I mean, I know the two aren't mutually exclusive opinions, but the tone behind the post shifts dramatically from abrasive cynicism to celebrating optimism.

I'm of the consistent belief that Ness will ALWAYS be a threat in tournaments, and will likely never stray from being a low-high tier/Top 20 character. As several people have mentioned by now, Ness has some of the best tools to work with in both his advantage state and his disadvantage state, combo-heavy tools at early-and-mid percents for the former and crazy good moves with raw kill power that can catch the opponent off-guard and set up a surprise comeback for the latter. As long as Ness retains such explosive strengths that can easily switch the momentum of a game in his favor, he'll always remain relevant despite his horrible match-ups against Sheik and Rosalina (the former of which I'm actually starting to reconsider. It's still an uphill battle for sure, but perhaps not the near auto-loss that I assumed it to be).

Regarding Yoshi and Sky's MU chart for him: Utter trash. You don't make special exceptions in MU numbers depending on the player you play against. If that specific player happens to utilize the tools of the character Yoshi is going against such that the MU numbers shift more towards their favor, then you use THAT number, since a MU chart is supposed to reflect how a character stacks up against each other when they're both played at their most optimum. Add to the fact that some of those MU numbers seem weird and highly out-of-place (-2 on Fox? Hell naw, -1 at worst; -1 on Ryu? Even and that's being 1 point generous to Ryu; +1 on Diddy? Since when did this stop becoming our worst top-tier match-up?), and yeah, you have a pretty questionable, if not downright inaccurate, list in itself.
I agree about Ness being top 20. But he has far from some of the best tools in disadvantage. His landing and anti-juggle options are pretty limited and he always has a chance to get gimped every-time he's forced to up B. And he's a pretty decent combo weight. All this combined means he's often taking a ton of damage before being able to reset back to neutral. Speaking of which, his neutral is decent but is out classed by several other neutrals in the game, I'd argue even Lucas has a much better neutral overall.
 
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FeelMeUp

Smash Lord
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Nov 11, 2013
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getting destroyed by almost every top character(sheik, fox, cloud, rosa, etc) and randomly gets pooped on by some mediocre/average characters(corrin, MK, villager, etc)
 

ParanoidDrone

Smash Master
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Jan 26, 2008
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Baton Rouge, LA
Even if Ness is disadvantaged in a particular matchup, he has enough raw power behind him that you really can't afford to make a mistake. Bthrow is the obvious one, but getting complacent and getting hit by PKT2, or recovering into PK Flash will both end a stock in a hurry.
 

Envoy of Chaos

Smash Ace
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May 9, 2016
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Rock Hill, SC
Aside from Shiek, Rosa, Meta Knight and Sonic who does Ness just lose to badly? Marth and Cloud I can see but they aren't as bad as the others I listed. Diddy isn't terrible, Fox and Ryu are even, Mario and Mewtwo are doable. He wins or goes even with alot of his fellow High-Mid tiers like ZSS and Pika.

I cannot see Ness not being a top twenty character. He's not solo viable at all but he isn't average
 

dakotaisgreat

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Oct 9, 2015
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In a game where mobility is king, frame data is the heir apparent, and combos are much more freestyle and character-dependent than a normal fighting game, belonging to an archetype that's defined by being slow, laggy, and large scores a hat trick on the "get ****ed" meter.

On paper, heavy characters kill earlier than most characters, survive longer due to their weight, and generally have something to bypass or threaten shield. In practice, their susceptibility to combos makes their weight moot, their poor recovery makes them vulnerable to gimps, and their shield punish options aren't generally fast enough to catch people with.

At the risk of sparking yet another nerf/buff discussion, I think an interesting solution would be to change the recovery paradigm. Right now, lightweights tend to have vastly superior recoveries to heavyweights. What if that was reversed, where lightweight characters have poor recoveries and heavyweights have excellent (or at least long distance) ones? Given how important the offstage and recovery game is to Smash, that could possibly go a long way towards letting heavyweights survive long enough to take advantage of their weight in the first place. Rage helps but it can only go so far when you can be gimped by a sex kick at the ledge.

Failing that, I think we can look to DK for cues. He has good tilts and an excellent grab game, so he can space the opponent out and has an answer to shield pressure that they must respect. Ganondorf isn't quite on the same level but he has surprisingly decent frame data.
Charizard, Dedede, and Bowser don't really have bad recoveries though. Now before someone jumps on me for this, a recovery doesn't need to be ungimpable like ZSS or Shiek to not be bad. But Charizard, Bowser, and Bowser (to a lesser extent) can generally make it back to the stage from anywhere. You're right when it comes to a character like Ganondorf though.
 

Envoy of Chaos

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It's not a terrible MU either. The worst I can see it as is 45:55. Backthrow is especially great against Fox plus Ness can harass him off stage with PK Thunder when Fox is trying to recover. With 58 characters in Smash 4 putting him outside of twenty is putting him closer to a average character which he simply is not
 

Frihetsanka

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Apr 26, 2016
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Sweden
getting destroyed by almost every top character(sheik, fox, cloud, rosa, etc) and randomly gets pooped on by some mediocre/average characters(corrin, MK, villager, etc)
Corrin, Meta Knight, and Villager are average now? They're all arguably top 20. Also, FOW puts the Fox MU as even. If none of those are top 20, and Ness isn't top 20 either, then I'd be very interested in seeing your top 20.
 
D

Deleted member 269706

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ness vs fox isn't even.
Well this is an interesting statement.

From what I gathered, Fox vs Ness is generally considered pretty even but I've heard both sides argue that they lose. With that said, I am inclined to believe that Ness actually beats Fox for a few reasons.
  • Grabs - When Ness gets a grab on Fox, it's almost never a good thing. At low percents we eat fair strings, and at high percents, bthrow cleans up the stock earlier than you'd expect. On the other hand, Fox gets next to nothing off of grabs.
  • PK Fire - This move is able to stuff both methods of recovering, that is Illusion and Fire Fox.
  • Air Mobility & Airdodge - It is MUCH more difficult to catch Ness coming down due to his exceptional mobility and airdodge. Definitely one of the hardest characters to juggle, which is something usually Fox excels at.
  • Nair - Although it's frame 5, it often breaks him out of things that Fox likes to throw at him. Basic MU advice we give to players looking to deal with Ness is: "After you him him, shield". Doesn't matter if it's a dash attack, utilt, dtilt, nair, the safest thing to do is shield because his Nair is so good at breaking up the pressure.
  • Fair - Just a great spacing tool, really difficult to punish... We have no move that helps us space nearly to the degree that he does.
  • PK Thunder - Even though we have shine to keep it away, the move can still be used to harass us when recovering. It's also more difficult to exploit offstage (when Ness is using it to recover) than you might imagine.
  • PK Magnet - Forcing approaches with laser is no longer a viable strategy.
  • Fox's weight - Being so light, he's so suspect to being KOed to so many options, be it any smash attack, uair, bair, dair, and of course, bthrow. Ness can clean our stock up much easier than we can clean his up, and he has more methods for doing so.
However like I said, from the resources I've looked into, it's unclear as to who really wins the MU. I don't think the MU would ever be more than 55:45 for either party. In any case, to say that Fox destroys Ness is quite the exaggeration.
 

Ffamran

The Smooth Devil Mod
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Edit: I regret these typing up these walls...

WARNING: Giant walls incoming! Do not attempt to feed or touch as they are not friendly walls. You have been warned.
It sort of feels like Falco is a lesser Ryu, someone who plays the footsies game with a variety of tools, only Falco has fewer tools (but arguably more well-rounded such as that f-tilt), and gets less reward. He's for someone who really, really loves playing in neutral, but in a way that's unfamiliar for many Smashers, as mostf his neutral tools are quite good but not overwhelming in any sense.

I think I may have mentioned this before months ago, but my impression is that Falco's player base also suffers from his very identity changing. Falco in Melee and Brawl was the king of shenanigans. You picked him because you wanted some sweet-*** combos/chain grabs, and he was all about just attacking with tricky options and absurdly powerful tools in advantage and neutral. Now, he's almost the opposite: a character that can fight, but has nothing that feels like an "X" factor. Those who remain are probably not the Falco mains of old.
Outside of my standing that with an incomplete game plan, Falco is a "lesser everyone" because he doesn't have enough to make him stand out, Falco always played a Street Fighter or traditional 2D fighting game style of neutral, but because of certain things like Blaster, it wasn't always apparent. Still, you could consider his Blaster as a supped up version Guile's Sonic Boom that always had access to an unlimited version of Charlie and Guile's Sonic Break. Poke, zone, pelt, and I don't think it was as common in Melee or Brawl as it is in Smash 4, combo into like in a traditional 2D fighting game. The only thing he added with Blaster was zoning which turned it from a really good zoning tool to a really good approach tool or in other words, the best and most broken projectile in Smash.

The Falco playerbase does suffer from Falco's identity crisis and it's just not Smash 4 which I don't think you're implying. It's been like this in each game including PM. All versions of Falco play so differently that it is very off-putting for people. There are people who just play him for him, but in most cases, they're not the high-level players like you see with Boss, Dark.Pch, or DKWill. DK, Luigi, and Peach never really changed. Sure, some things here and there, but can you really say they went through what Falco did and possibly does with every game? I'm willing to bet that Smash 5 Falco ends up completely different than Smash 4 and once again, people are not going to like him. Hopefully this is not the case.

I s2g Falco's Jab feels incomplete. Numerous times have I Jabbed someone, only for them to get a powershield out before the Rapid Jab kicks in. Is there some specific timing to that?

Funny enough, I also brainstormed ideas about what buffs Falco could gain to get, and my mind always went back to "what if Falco's Laser had Sheik's Gravity Grenade properties?" That single laser would grant Falco instant access to his amazing close range kit on hit due to the knockback and set up for super easy Usmashes and Bairs. Alas.

Ah well, at least his Usmash is incredibly good for what it does. May be one of the best ledge coverage options in the game.
It's weird... Are you holding down jab when it connects or tapping it? If you hold down jab, Falco has a different timing for his jab 2 to rapid jab than other characters. For most characters, their held and tapped jabs transition almost the same like Fox and Sheik's rapid jab. Falco's on the other hand, is noticeably slower for some reason.

The questions to your idea of a buff for Falco: what happened to Explosive Blaster and is that really Star Fox? I'm not going to talk about the second question, so for the first one, if that were the case, it would to be designed in a way that it's not stupid which Explosive Blaster is and that came at the cost a very delayed hitbox and high recovery which all of Sheik's Burst Grenade options have and technically ZSS's Electromagnetic Net. Also, there is a problem where it would kill Falco's ability to gimp with lasers and worsen the problem where doing so could save people since he'd be pulling them into the stage. Sure, you could try to snipe them while facing the stage, but still...

An example of very stupid would be this video which is extreme since it's existing in Melee where Blaster auto-cancels and Fox is using it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfhBwWinyic.

PM Mario Fireball version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArZEqf3kcN4.

I don't know enough about the character but I think the jab is meant to be a mixup rather than a reliable chain. Jab, jab, rapid jab. Jab jab, shield. Jab, jab, ftilt. Jab, jab, fsmash. Jab, jab, grab. Etc.
It was a reliable chain in Brawl and technically Melee since it was the same as Fox's, but its ability to mixup was definitely helped by it very low recovery even for a jab at 10 frames for jab 1 and 13 frames for jab 2. Jab 1 was frame 2, had 4 active frames, and 15 total frames and jab 2 was frame 3 (+8; fastest transition), had 4 active frames, and 18 total frames. What also helped was that both had set knockback. Brawl jab was a run of the mill rapid jab with stupidly low recovery making it good for mixups, but because of differing hit stun mechanics in Brawl and Smash 4, it wasn't as powerful as pre-patch Fox's since and the low set knockback while keeping his opponent in the same place, meant that it would create similar situations where if someone recognizes it, can probably get out e.g. characters with frame 3 Nairs can mash it and break the mixup.

For Smash 4, there is the problem of its high recovery. Samus's jab despite its shaky start, has low recovery at 14 frames. Falco's doesn't; Falco's jab 1 has 19 recovery frames and jab 2 has 21 recovery frames. That's tilt territory of average recovery which for jab would be high recovery. Its very low knockback not helped by its pitiful growth means it not safe even at high percents. For any character with a move faster than 8 frames, Falco going for a mixup is likely to get punished. Okay, go for a full jab, but wait, we've agreed that it's not reliable. Holding down jab makes it even worse where jab 2 to rapid jab gets at best, escaped and at worst, punished. If it connects, then rapid jab can still be escaped, especially during its transition into rapid jab finisher. A punish is a punish; for some characters, it's not as bad like Mario using Nair or Marth using Dolphin Slash won't get Falco killed, but against someone like Ganondorf with his Uair, Jigglypuff with her Rest, Luigi with his Nair, or Ryu with his Shoryuken? Falco's dead.

Btw it's debatable if Falco has a better Ftilt than Ryu considering Ryu's (soft) Ftilt is disjointed on the tip (no hurtbox).
Falco's main advantages over Ryu's light Ftilt is slightly higher damage and the ability to angle. Ryu's advantages one which you mentioned already: being disjointed, also includes invincibility on Ryu's upper leg, 1 more active frame, lower recovery at 17 recovery frames to Falco's 20, and the fact it's safe on-hit at low percents. Falco's Ftilt is not safe on-hit until 40% to 50%, a problem shared with (Dr.) Mario and Luigi. Not so much shared by Captain Falcon, Kirby, Jigglypuff, and PAC-MAN, and definitely not by Fox, Samus, and ZSS. For Fox, his unangled Ftilt starts being positive on-hit, so +1, on Mario at 20%. At 0%, Fox's is -4. Contrast this to Falco's which is -11 on-hit at 0% and starts being +1 at 40% on Mario. Great range, but... not having any base knockback, a trait carried over since Melee, really hurts its usage when Falco's much more reliant on it compared to in past games; in previous games, Falco could easily get you to 40% while Smash 4 Falco is more likely to use Ftilt before.

My argument is that Falco's Ftilt is the standard, average check kick Ftilt and many of them, Kirby, Jigglypuff, and PAC-MAN's are in a similar boat while those under which is only the Mario Bros. since they have equally as bad base and really high recovery on theirs for no reason. Capt., Fox, Samus, and ZSS would be over his as good check kick Ftilts. Ryu's is different and while more inflexible kind of like Ganondorf's, is still better since it's safe on-hit at 0%.

Also one more thing regarding Falco. What buffs did he really receive in Smash 4?

I mean he's had a great downtilt, ftilt and Up Smash since Melee. He's had an amazing jab since Brawl.

His recovery was buffed significantly from previous games but recoveries in general in Smash 4 are better than they have ever been so this doesn't really make Falco stand out either.

So I think former Falcos are ignoring him not because he's different but because he's simply far worse and the things he's good at he's been good at in previous games as well.
Going to discuss the second and third statements before listing for the first...
Ftilt has not changed since Melee outside of losing 2 active frames 1 of which was because the startup was increased to 6 between Melee and Brawl. It's good, but suffers a problem of stagnating and not changing for different environments which you could say for a lot of moves like Marth's jab was decent at best in every game... Marth's patch jab? Hell yeah. That's a good and welcome change.

Melee Dtilt is in my opinion, the best version of Dtilt while Brawl's is the worst. Brawl Dtilt was much weaker in knockback and was given a 9% sour-spot. Consider that Dtilt was already a short-ranged move, so why the sour-spot? Also consider it's in the game where hit stun canceling helped characters survive to higher percents. Yeah... Smash 4's while better, especially as a poke because of its disjoint carries over Brawl's problem of having a sour-spot or rather, now sour-spots. It's stronger, but much weaker than Melee's which could KO at 100% to Smash 4's sweet-spotted KO'ing at 145%. If Ftilt had some base, like 10 or 20 base, making it much better for poking since it wouldn't be unsafe on-hit, jab wasn't just bad, and even then, I would still take Melee's or a Melee-esque Dtilt over having a disjointed and inconsistent Dtilt. A much stronger Dtilt for punishes, especially since it's basically a traditional 2D fighting game sweep, and one that can still function for setting up. Even without the disjoint, it would have more range than in Melee and Brawl because of the animation change: in previous games, Falco shared Fox's where he just spun in place while in Smash 4, Falco steps forward while crouching and whips his tail around. Without the disjoint, he would only have slightly less range than Fox's which itself has a range problem since the tip doesn't have a hitbox.

For Up Smash, Melee's would pretty much be fine. Nothing special and nothing amazing. Brawl's as a move alone was pitiful -- even lost its head invincibility from Melee. It was basically a utility Smash along with Down Smash and Side Smash being slower ended up being a hard punish Smash to Fox and Wolf's, "We have 2 utility Smashes and 1, fast and strong punish." What made it so great was DACUS and the fact Falco was one of the few characters who could cancel dash attack into Up Smash aka gatling combo. That made it a great damage tool and dash attack into a KO confirm. Smash 4's as a move is probably the best, but started off as probably the worse since it was much more unreliable and weak with other issues like only the first hit connecting under platforms making it a 4% Up Smash. Now, it has a lower starting hitbox which was done by making its startup 1 frame earlier (and matching it startup with Melee's), it's stronger, has good invincibility placement, and high I-frames along with its low startup, average recovery, and high active frames it had since launch. It still can be unreliable at times, but arguably, it's probably Falco's best Up Smash. One thing that could be a problem is that out of the other flip kick Up Smashes, it has the highest active frames for its strong hit which can KO by itself at ~130%. Everyone else has to deal with a clean hit that lasts from 1 frame to 3 frames; Falco's strong hit lasts 8 frames. Theirs KO at much lower percents like 110%, but people probably wouldn't like dealing with such a meaty hit that is invincible.

Smash 4 Falco's recovery...
I would argue that in terms of recovery, it's Melee > Brawl >= Smash 4. My argument is that Melee Falco's Fire Bird was much more usable and safer; it didn't have a charging hitbox, but it was much stronger, so if you screwed up, you would die. Let's make it more reasonable and give it a late hit. So, Melee Fire Bird does 16% to Melee-onward Fox's 14% and 8% late Brawl onward... Let's say 10% late. Getting hit by it was a threat compared to in Brawl onward where Fire Bird is an unreliable multi-hit with poor hitboxes and inability to KO. Melee Fire Bird, like other Up Specials, also had low landing lag. For whatever reason, Brawl and Smash 4 upped landing lag on recovery moves to an average of 30 frames. Wasn't the case for Fire Bird and Fire Bird in Brawl and Smash 4 where Brawl Fire Bird has 15 regular and 19 fast fall while Smash 4 Fire Bird has 19. Melee Fire Bird? 6 frames. Falco could mixup his recovery and recover on the stage without a problem. 6 frames is really low, but if Smash 4 Fire Bird had 12 and the average was 15 or 18, then whoa, people can actually recovery onto the stage. It won't ever be go the ledge all the time because that's so safe... Except it doesn't and the times where Brawl and Smash 4 Falco are forced to use Fire Bird even in Smash 4 where where ledge hogging doesn't exist, Falco's screwed. It's only got slightly above-average vertical left and average diagonally up lift, but double the startup of other recovery moves while also moving slower than most of them. Oh, and while Falco Phantasm had slightly less distance -- it's like one character width less than Fox Illusion -- in Melee, at least it had a full coverage and didn't raise his hurtbox.

Brawl Falco's recovery was probably the best horizontally. Falco Phantasm in Brawl was given lower startup: 16 frames to Melee and Brawl's 18, lower recovery: 32 to Melee's 39 and Smash 4's 39 grounded and 45 aerial, made to move faster, and its travel distance was matched with Fox's. Falco Phantasm was better than Fox Illusion in every way which you should not do for any character; you should not make a move just strictly a better move or an inferior version in post-Brawl Fire Bird's case to Fire Fox and Fire Wolf. Falco Phantasm was the burst movement of Smash. Unfortunately, as I explained already, his vertical recovery was bad and the higher landing lag on Fire Bird meant he couldn't mixup his recovery like in Melee. Falco mainly went to the ledge horizontally if he could or went to the stage horizontally. He couldn't angle his way wherever he wanted like in Melee.

Smash 4 Falco's recovery while seeming better because he can use Falco Phantasm without entering into helpless mode isn't that great when you consider that Fox has the same thing, Fox's recovery was considered at best, good and at worst, average, and that other characters generally had their recoveries meaningfully improved. Falco's wasn't the case. I could even argue that his was actually nerfed, but that would take a lot of time and would be controversial. First off, Fire Bird was not changed from Brawl at all. It was bad in Brawl and stayed bad in Brawl. To make matters worse, if you include customs, Distant Fire Bird isn't any better; it's still worse than Fire Fox like Fire Bird and factoring in Twisting Fox, Fire Bird and Distant Fire Bird are both worst to Fire Fox and Twisting Fox. Fire Bird being the way it is can be considered a reason why Falco's one of the few characters to have a Melee-esque recovery where a simple tap can gimp them easily. Yes, Falco has a high double jump, but he's still a fast faller who with enough hit stun, can end up too far for both his double jump and Fire Bird to save him, especially if it's just Fire Bird. Other characters who have this problem would be Cloud without meter, Dr. Mario, and Little Mac with Cloud and Little Mac at least having reasons for their poor recovery and Dr. Mario still has a fast vertical recovery and another option to recover up slightly with Doctor Tornado. For Falco Phantasm, the new pose while cool to differentiate his and Fox's is weird since they decided one of his wings should be raised up. This only serves to raise his hurtbox up allowing characters with moves that can reach over the ledge to easily clip him even if he goes parallel to the ledge. If he goes any lower, he won't grab the ledge and just fall. Falco Phantasm is also slower than Fox Illusion in travel and as I said already, the higher recovery in the air means if Falco misses the ledge, he's going to go to be stuck in a lot of recovery while falling and might not be able to make it back up with his jump and Fire Bird. Even if he could, there's so much time to just watch what he's doing and plan an edgeguard.

Buffs he got in Smash 4?
Meaningful buffs since there's random stuff like, "Oh, look, Falco's 0.040 faster in run speed from Brawl's 1.432 to Smash 4's 1.472." At launch: Dtilt's higher knockback (and disjoint), the foundation of his present-day Up Smash, Down Smash (kind of), Nair's final hit having much higher knockback, and Fair. First 4 are simple with Down Smash being the most minor and ends up also being slightly buffed in knockback growth, +2 from its 76 to 78 in 1.1.4. That being said, I'd still take a Melee-esque Dtilt for higher power and more consistency over range which Ftilt should be doing. Fair was a "should have been done in Brawl." For whatever reason, Brawl Fair was not only weak and had poor connection issues, but also had questionably high landing lag, 33 frames, when it's not like Bowser's Dair, Captain Falcon's Fair, or the Links' Dair, y'know, KO moves, lack of any set knockback to help its loop hits, and questionably high frame gaps at 7 frames between hits. And then you look at Fox's and his connects fine allowing it to do 27% reliably, has low(er) landing lag, and helped with his recovery by lifting him up.

With patches: Up Smash, Nair, Fair, and Dair. Notice how I didn't say anything about Uair. Up Smash was explained already, so to Nair; Nair was given auto-link angles making it connect much better, but for me, this comes at a cost: overlapping with Fair. I'll discuss that later... Fair was straight up buffed: lowered startup, lower frame gaps from a workable 6 frames to 4 frames, and much lower landing lag at 25 frames to its inexplicably carried over from Brawl, 32 frames. Dair not spiking grounded targets helps since Dair's clean, spike hit has very high hit lag, a multiplier of 2, which makes can give people more time to react to the spike not to mention the problem of hit lag and shields where higher hit lag moves were much more unsafe -- this was changed in 1.1.0 and further altered in 1.1.1 if recall correctly. Post-1.0.8, grounded opponents are launched up 80 degrees which gives me an idea... to discuss later.

Let's move changes that didn't buff, but didn't exactly nerf Falco: the only really moves are Dtilt, Nair, Uair, and Bair. Dtilt was explained already. The rundown is that it shifted Falco from having a short-ranged, but very powerful Dtilt that KO'd to a sort of Melee Fox Dtilt with Roy Dtilt hitboxes and range. Nair started off in Brawl as something similar to Samus's Uair where it didn't guarantee a full connection, but its low landing lag, 9 to Smash 4's 15, allowed Falco to setup and mixup with it. With it becoming a regular multi-hit that connects well, it overlaps with Fair where Nair's main advantage is speed, lower landing lag, no landing hit, so that when frame synced, Falco can follow up instead of having a landing hit to send his opponent flying, and a property that sends his opponent flying wherever he faces allowing Falco to control where he wants his opponent to be while Fair is slightly stronger -- raw KO power-wise, they KO at around ~200% center-stage --, has more active frames, and is slightly disjointed or heavily disjointed regarding its landing hit.

Pre-1.0.8, Uair was a strong Uair that could KO from the ground at 160%. The only problems it had was carried from Melee: a body sour-spot that was about as weak as Zelda's Bair and Fair sour-spots. Why it existed when his normal knockback on Uair was significantly lower than Fox's, I don't know. Even with his high jump, it still wouldn't KO until later and in Melee where gravity didn't affect vertical knockback and characters had higher fall speed, it probably didn't KO until late like his Brawl and pre-1.0.8 Smash 4 Uair. The only thing that needed to be fixed was the sour-spot which still had a used to confirm into a Bair at higher percents. Lower startup was just a buff. The knockback changes from 27 base and 100 growth to 35 base and 90 growth? Nerf. Pre-1.0.8 Uair didn't have a good hit angle, 68 degrees, but 1.0.8 made it even worse by making it convoluted and on a "short-ranged move"; 1.0.8 made it so the lower leg and foot had a 65 degree hit angle, the upper leg had a 75 hit angle, and the body had an 85 hit angle. Hitting with the legs, you would not be able to KO on the ground without DI until 194%. That's in the range of Mario and ZSS's Uair KO percents both of which do much lower damage, but have better angles and very high growth to offset their lower damage. Add in DI and there you go, that's why even high up, Falco's Uair doesn't KO. Hitting with the body, you could KO at lower percents, at around 178%, but there's the problem of the body hitbox being small and the fact it's on his body. Most people would go for the legs to be safe. Going right next to someone with his low air speed and trying to hit with a small hitbox? All of this is why I feel like 1.0.8 did more to nerf his Uair than buff. It also forced a Uair that kind of doesn't work with Falco and doesn't play on he's got a good jump, he Uair shouldn't be strong, but strong enough where if he's high up, he can send you into the blast zone or his jump plays with his Uair to allow him to juggle kind of like how Corrin, Fox, Marth, Roy, and Yoshi juggle with single hits and chasing rather than Uairing multiple times like Capt., Mario, and ZSS which Falco can't really do because not only is he slower, but his Uair having high base and high damage means that like after 20% to 30%, he can't do even do 2 Uairs.

Bair's simple. It was tuned from a versatile, but offensive move to a purely offensive move that's not really versatile as it lacks range, coverage, and high active frames on it strong hit. Not really a buff or a nerf; it can be viewed as either, but for most, it's a buff since it addressed a problem of Brawl where Falco was really weak in KO power -- didn't help that one of the reasons Falco was weak in Brawl was Bair being nerfed in the first place. At times, it is overrated as people don't factor in its short-range and it being tuned purely for offense making it highly-specialized move and while it does fantastic at hitting fast and hitting hard, it doesn't do other things poorly like being a good jump-in aerial or a poke like Bayonetta, (Dr.) Mario, Fox, Samus, or ZSS's. Still, because it's so different compared to his old Bair and being designed to work with Falco, you can't really say buff or nerf, but rather, change or overhaul.

Ah, the sad parts: nerfs. Some of these will overlap like Nair's going to be here because of its landing lag increase and when considering that nothing had changed other than that and its knockback increase, it being similar to Brawl, but having higher landing lag preventing its old setups from working as well as it did. So, jab, Dtilt, Nair, Uair, Dair, Blaster, Fire Bird, and Falco Phantasm. Jab was explained already, but some other things include its rapid jab damage going down from 1% to 0.4% and possibly some knockback changes making it not do enough hit stun for the rapid jab finisher to connect. Dtilt's just the inconsistent hitboxes because of the new, middle sour-spot, Nair and Uair I just explained and Fire Bird, and Falco Phantasm will also be skipped.

For Dair, it's mainly the massive startup increase and it becoming a generic, slow spike Dair -- there's also the landing increase from Brawl's 12 to Smash 4's 23. For the record, Falco's Melee, especially Melee, and Brawl Dair were broken. Fast, high damaging, good knockback Dair with low landing lag either by default in Brawl, 12 frames, or L-canceled, 9 frames in Melee with Melee also basically being a divekick and crossup aerial. Spiking with Dair is a Falco thing, but what if doesn't work for whatever reason? Falco jumps high, a fast Dair or even average Dair that could spike would be insane and with its high active frames, the late hit would still be able to gimp people. Cloud works a "balanced Falco Dair" because Cloud's jump is low. Falco could work it too if his jump was low, but it's not; a Falco thing is his high jump. Falco's Dair with average startup, 10 frames, would kill Luigi's. Luigi would have jack on Falco's other than low recovery and lower landing lag. 1.0.8 making it so Falco's Dair doesn't spike grounded opponents made me think of something: "What if Falco's Dair wasn't a spike anymore? What if it was a Dair that instead of sending people down, sent people up?" They could have done that, made it frame 11 on startup where its clean hit sent people up 80 degrees and its late hit stayed the same as the 361 degree hit. Would need some other changes like it should probably not do 13%, maybe the late hit shouldn't be active for 14 frames, and maybe slightly lower landing lag. Knockback is fine; 10 base and 80 growth clean and 20 base and 90 late wouldn't kill people. Anyway, I'm rambling, but it could give Falco a unique Dair, a new Falco thing, and be interesting to see how it could be used.

Blaster... Blaster's problem stems from both Smash 64 where it was Fox's and Brawl. A projectile that can continuously fire and does hit stun is difficult to balance. What also doesn't help is that from 64 to Brawl, it had infinite range -- went from one end of the stage to the blast zone --, it auto-canceled giving it very little recovery, and it had a high rate of fire. It's history was 64: broken, Melee: broken, and Brawl: broken. Now? Broken, but in terms of like a broken car instead of a broken move that limited an opponent's options heavily. Nobody wants to deal with a projectile like that, but of course, people want a projectile like that to use. Brawl did something that had it not, could have kept Blaster at least in decent shape: lowering it startup. Brawl lowered is startup from Melee's 23 to 12. Note how the total frames was not touched at all. Brawl had the same high recovery as Smash 4's on the ground; Brawl had 45 recovery frames to Smash 4's 48. Brawl Falco was able to get away with it since with the faster rate of fire, he could hit you multiple times, keep you in hit stun enough, and go through with its high recovery without much of a problem. Oh, and the insane range helps to. Smash 4 Falco can't do that, he's likely going to hit you once, cause only 1 laser's worth of hit stun, and go through the high recovery. If the startup was never changed, Smash 4 Falco (and Brawl too), could have ended up with 35 frames of recovery. That's pretty decent for a projectile in Smash 4. Smash 4 alone, however, removed auto-canceling for all projectiles and in most cases, didn't compensate for them, with Falco's being hit the hardest since it had insanely high recovery for its hit stun and damage, decreased the range from "infinite" to about 2/3's of Final Destination, lowered the fire rate -- not sure on Brawl's, but Melee's was 24 frames per trigger pull grounded and 16 in the air while Smash 4's is 40 grounded and 33 aerial --, and also increased the total frames for aerial Blaster from Brawl's 41 frames to 49 raising the aerial recovery from 32 frames to 41.
 
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MushroomKiller

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getting destroyed by almost every top character(sheik, fox, cloud, rosa, etc) and randomly gets pooped on by some mediocre/average characters(corrin, MK, villager, etc)
Nice backing of your opinion there. I'll be sure to take you seriously from now on with such strong logical reasoning and explanations.

I was gonna give you a block and send you to the bowels of my ever-growing list, but you don't seem to make as many stupid posts so I'll give you one last chance to redeem yourself. Or don't, I don't care.

I agree about Ness being top 20. But he has far from some of the best tools in disadvantage. His landing and anti-juggle options are pretty limited and he always has a chance to get gimped every-time he's forced to up B. And he's a pretty decent combo weight. All this combined means he's often taking a ton of damage before being able to reset back to neutral. Speaking of which, his neutral is decent but is out classed by several other neutrals in the game, I'd argue even Lucas has a much better neutral overall.
Perhaps I should have been more specific: Ness doesn't have strong disadvantage tools, I agree with you on that, but the moves he can throw out WHILE in his disadvantage state are what makes him so dangerous. You can't just blindly rush in on Ness while you're giving him all your percents and expect him to just take it until he dies. If you're at high percent, that clutch back throw or U-air can come in any moment, ending your stock and effectively setting the game back to neutral, where Ness does have much more of a chance to bring the game back into his favor.

Unless we're talking about edgeguarding Ness (subset of disadvantage), in which case yeah gg Ness, especially if you're Sheik, Rosalina, or Megaman lol.
 
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FeelMeUp

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Nice backing of your opinion there. I'll be sure to take you seriously from now on with such strong logical reasoning and explanations.

I was gonna give you a block and send you to the bowels of my ever-growing list, but you don't seem to make as many stupid posts so I'll give you one last chance to redeem yourself.



Perhaps I should have been more specific: Ness doesn't have strong disadvantage tools, I agree with you on that, but the moves he can throw out WHILE in his disadvantage state are what makes him so dangerous. You can't just blindly rush in on Ness while you're giving him all your percents and expect him to just take it until he dies. If you're at high percent, that clutch back throw or U-air can come in any moment, ending your stock and effectively setting the game back to neutral, where Ness does have much more of a chance to bring the game back into his favor.

Unless we're talking about edgeguarding Ness (subset of disadvantage), in which case yeah gg Ness, especially if you're Sheik, Rosalina, or Megaman lol.
your opinion means nothing to me, go ahead and do it.

I'm at a friend's place. I'll give reasoning and drop my top 20 tonight
 

MushroomKiller

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your opinion means nothing to me, go ahead and do it.

I'm at a friend's place. I'll give reasoning and drop my top 20 tonight
It doesn't matter if my opinion means nothing to you, you're not the one ignoring me lol (unless there's some stealth mutual ignore function I'm not aware of).

Either way, another one bites the dust ~

Even if Ness is disadvantaged in a particular matchup, he has enough raw power behind him that you really can't afford to make a mistake... recovering into PK Flash will both end a stock in a hurry.
Has... Has this ever happened before? PK Flash is almost entirely useless that I think Down Smash and PK Thunder juggles are almost always better methods of edgeguarding a recovering enemy.

Aside from Shiek, Rosa, Meta Knight and Sonic who does Ness just lose to badly?
Swap Meta Knight with Megaman and you have my list of four characters Ness loses badly to. I'd say Meta Knight is only a slight disadvantage, actually. His disjoints aren't as troublesome as Marth's or Corrin's, and Ness isn't exactly the size and weight to be caught in his juggles anymore.

Well this is an interesting statement.

From what I gathered, Fox vs Ness is generally considered pretty even but I've heard both sides argue that they lose. With that said, I am inclined to believe that Ness actually beats Fox for a few reasons.
  • Grabs - When Ness gets a grab on Fox, it's almost never a good thing. At low percents we eat fair strings, and at high percents, bthrow cleans up the stock earlier than you'd expect. On the other hand, Fox gets next to nothing off of grabs.
  • PK Fire - This move is able to stuff both methods of recovering, that is Illusion and Fire Fox.
  • Air Mobility & Airdodge - It is MUCH more difficult to catch Ness coming down due to his exceptional mobility and airdodge. Definitely one of the hardest characters to juggle, which is something usually Fox excels at.
  • Nair - Although it's frame 5, it often breaks him out of things that Fox likes to throw at him. Basic MU advice we give to players looking to deal with Ness is: "After you him him, shield". Doesn't matter if it's a dash attack, utilt, dtilt, nair, the safest thing to do is shield because his Nair is so good at breaking up the pressure.
  • Fair - Just a great spacing tool, really difficult to punish... We have no move that helps us space nearly to the degree that he does.
  • PK Thunder - Even though we have shine to keep it away, the move can still be used to harass us when recovering. It's also more difficult to exploit offstage (when Ness is using it to recover) than you might imagine.
  • PK Magnet - Forcing approaches with laser is no longer a viable strategy.
  • Fox's weight - Being so light, he's so suspect to being KOed to so many options, be it any smash attack, uair, bair, dair, and of course, bthrow. Ness can clean our stock up much easier than we can clean his up, and he has more methods for doing so.
However like I said, from the resources I've looked into, it's unclear as to who really wins the MU. I don't think the MU would ever be more than 55:45 for either party. In any case, to say that Fox destroys Ness is quite the exaggeration.
Fantastic points. Thanks for giving actual informed, well-explained contributions to the boards :) I, too, agree it's not worse than 55-45 in either character (I'd give it to Fox based solely on the matches I've seen and played though).

edit: Actually, nah, I think it's pretty much a 50-50 for either characters. Some extra points and arguments I'd like to make (reflected on some past matches and Fow vs. Larry Lurr for this):

  • Fox... Actually does not seem to do well edgeguarding Ness as other characters can. Besides a clutch Reflect, maybe, but that accounts on Fox getting there in time and positioning himself just right where the ball is looping. Most good Ness save their double jumps, anyway, and combine its weird trajectory with a well-timed airdodge to make it back onto stage, at least the first time. It makes sense, too, since Fox never struck me as good of an edgeguarder as Sheik or Rosalina, and gets most of his kills off the top.
  • On the topic of edgeguarding, Ness actually does it better against Fox than the latter does to him. You mentioned PK Fire, but the tail of PK Thunder and well-spaced aerials seem to do the trick even better - especially the aerials, which can be devastating to Fox if he's at high percents.
  • Mobility is where Fox has the advantage over Ness though (duh), and Fox can run out of Ness's hitboxes and dash back in to start a combo that not even Ness's godly airdodge can save him from. Jabs into uptilts into up-airs are as real a threat as ever for Ness, though you're right that Ness's nair does do some wonders in snuffing these. Speed, though, basically just means that Fox has stage control most of the time, something Ness has to work hard under the comparatively limited tools of his neutral to wrestle back.
  • Fox absolutely wins Ness on Duck Hunt, though. 60-40.
  • I disagree, actually, that Ness has an easier time killing Fox than Fox does against Ness. Dair is a highly situational move that really only works if Fox is caught in PK Fire off the stage (which I guess can happen more frequently than other characters given the nature of his recovery, as you mentioned, but still, getting there in time and landing the hitbox...), and bair has to be spaced just right to get the sweetspot. Fox, meanwhile, has a kit that often leads into a devastating uair to send Ness flying to the top, and the stifling speed to get into Ness's space and KO him with an upsmash. Their killing potential is about equal against each other, imo.
tl;dr Ness vs. Fox is even guys, nothing more to see here ~
 
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Amadeus9

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Nice backing of your opinion there. I'll be sure to take you seriously from now on with such strong logical reasoning and explanations.

I was gonna give you a block and send you to the bowels of my ever-growing list, but you don't seem to make as many stupid posts so I'll give you one last chance to redeem yourself. Or don't, I don't care.
your opinion means nothing to me, go ahead and do it.
It doesn't matter if my opinion means nothing to you, you're not the one ignoring me lol (unless there's some stealth mutual ignore function I'm not aware of).

Either way, another one bites the dust ~


This is a little out of hand, guys
 

my_T

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@Rawkstar

Fox definitely does not lose the ness match-up. It's either even or slightly in fox's favor

Why? Neutral

The difference in speed makes it difficult for ness to safely play neutral in this match-up. Fox can put on a lot of pressure or just straight up punish a stray aerial or dash attack in neutral and it's by no means a difficult thing to do. Fox on the other hand can run away pretty easily if he is feeling pressured because of how slow ness is; this is even easier to do on stages with platforms. Fox's normals are also very safe and difficult to punish.

The ness/falcon match-up pretty much works the same way. Neutral is just really difficult to play from ness's perspective because of how easily he can be punished or put in disadvantage because of falcon's speed.

Ness can wreck falcon/fox pretty hard when they are in disadvantage but they can do the same to ness. Ness is not hard to juggle; just attack him from below so as best to avoid fair, bair, uair, and the better part of nair. His fall speed also makes it easier to set up landing traps or to just keep juggling him.

Looking at theory, personal experience, and top level results I would argue that Ness is at a slight disadvantage against both fox and falcon. The neutral in both these match-ups is just too rough for ness

and the level of optimism some of you have for this character is hilarious. Having good kill options and high damage out put will only get you so far. Everything starts in neutral; on average I would say atleast half if not majority of a match is spent in neutral
 

Shady Shaymin

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Ness loses to :4sheik:,:4diddy:,:4cloud:,:rosalina:,:4villager:,:4metaknight:,:4sonic:. All common tournament threats at both mid and high levels of play.

Ness beats :4pikachu:,:4zss:,:4ryu:. Three less common tournament threats who should still be prepared for if one wants to win a big event.

Looking at the bad matchups, it's hard to imagine why anyone would want to pick up this character as a dedicated solo main. But when I look at the good matchups, and then consider the fact that a lot of characters struggle vs those three, and that Ness has a relatively low learning curve...it makes me think that Ness could have a bright future as a counterpick character.

Are there any characters that would appreciate being paired with Ness in a tourney, either for matchups or to complement their gameplan?
 

sedrf

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Found something anti retweeted.
I sometimes feel people either rely too much on theory/results alone and not both
 

Ulevo

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Swap Meta Knight with Megaman and you have my list of four characters Ness loses badly to. I'd say Meta Knight is only a slight disadvantage, actually. His disjoints aren't as troublesome as Marth's or Corrin's, and Ness isn't exactly the size and weight to be caught in his juggles anymore.
Meta Knight can death combo Ness.
 

Y2Kay

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Found something anti retweeted.
I sometimes feel people either rely too much on theory/results alone and not both
Real talk though . . .

How many candidates for top tier haven't gotten top 8 in a major at least once?

:150:
 

blackghost

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I'd say best usmash goes to Mario, mostly due to the combination of high character pick rate, raw power, and ease of use. I'll take it as a given that Olimar's purple usmash is also good, I simply don't use him enough to judge.

Other notable usmashes I can think of are Luigi/Dr. Mario (face it, they're pretty similar to Mario's), Rosalina (similar in function, if not power; Luma helps), and Ganondorf (stupidly safe for its power). Lucas, ZSS, Bayonetta, and Palutena go into the "novelty" category for their size and, in Lucas's case, raw power.

Sheik and Diddy can score kills off of their usmashes too, but Sheik needs a sweetspot and a read while Diddy confirms out of a banana, which means he can do basically any move he wants so I'm not sure the smash itself is anything special.
I wouldn't ever put bayo smashes in a best of or notable list. size or not it's not always even mandatory to block her smashes. just challenge them. it's unique with its size but if you aren't witch timed they are very average
 

ParanoidDrone

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I wouldn't ever put bayo smashes in a best of or notable list. size or not it's not always even mandatory to block her smashes. just challenge them. it's unique with its size but if you aren't witch timed they are very average
That's why I called it a "novelty". (Her dsmash is super fun though.)
 
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#HBC | Red Ryu

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Found something anti retweeted.
I sometimes feel people either rely too much on theory/results alone and not both
My only issue with that tweet is that I can only believe something like that for so long before I start to put something like that into question, more so when they consistently don't and even under perform past that.
 

EternalFlare

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Real talk though . . .

How many candidates for top tier haven't gotten top 8 in a major at least once?

:150:
I can't think of a single example in any Smash game or traditional fighter of a character that was perceived as top tier without results at the highest level. It's one thing if a game just came out. But 2 years later in the age of information (allowing players to get really good, really fast unlike before), I'm rather skeptical of a character being amazing if they don't have results. At that point all you have is theory crafting which anyone can do. For instance: Ganon is top tier. We just need a player that has the best reads on the planet to showcase this.

Good players are biased with their mains just like the rest of us. They aren't some unfathomable source of information.
LI Joe for instance who tweeted this, claims Nash is only top 5 despite 3 of the top 5 at Evo being Nash players (including himself) in a 5000 person tournament. Nash has fantastic results in general both in America and especially Japan (who has a much stronger SF scene) where he recently took yet another big tournament.

In Smash it's no different. Anti/Ally claimed Mario wasn't even top 8 for the longest time, M2K said Cloud isn't top 5, Zero said Diddy and Sheik aren't top 5 etc. Top players consistently underrate their characters especially if they are getting great results.

Which makes sense, these tend to be the most dedicated players and naturally want people to think the character has as little to do with their success as possible. Plus they obviously don't want their mains nerfed.

Anyway I think Ryu is the character in Smash 4 that people claim is easily top 3 despite lacklustre results and clear glaring flaws. His neutral game is just not on level of Diddy, Sheik, Sonic, Mario etc. and people assume his punish game makes up for this, as if he can just get in for free. As if he doesn't just get camped out hard if the opponent just respects him. And no amount of combo/confirm optimizations is going to fix these issues. I just can't see him ever consistently being top 8 at majors, he relies too heavily on the opponent making big mistakes.
 
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EternalFlare

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Who claims this? His results aren't bad though, but not enough to justify being top 5 right now.
I've seen multiple top player tier lists with him in top 3.

He has yet to make top 8 at a single major. He has some big wins on the West Coast (which is known for having aggressive players which Ryu loves) at smaller tournaments. And granted Trela got 9th at Evo but didn't even make it out of pools at Ceo which doesn't look too good when you average it out.

That's not enough to even justify top 8 really. Diddy, Sheik, Mewtwo, Rosa, Fox, Sonic, Cloud, Mario and ZSS have had consistently much better results over a long period of time.

And there are rarely talked about characters with better results at the most stacked events like Megaman and Villager.
 
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Y2Kay

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Who claims this?
Mostly Non-Ryu mains.

A lot of the respectable Ryu mains I know are aware of the character's limitations and don't think of him that highly. Most people who believe him to be top 5 are people who mimic Zero in order to pull off the illusion of high level understanding.

But that's just a guess. 乁◥θ┴θ;◤ㄏ

:150:
 

Krysco

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I mean, some notable people clearly believed Ryu was at least top 5, hence the tier list on the first page of this thread. And this was back with fewer results to rely on and prepatch Sheik running around.

Also, my cousin just asked me this question and I thought it'd be an interesting one to bring up here:

"so just in general who is currently said to be the leading smash 4 player? since it was zero for so long and now its kinda not"
 
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Nobie

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I think there's a tendency to exaggerate somewhat bad matchups into insurmountable walls, and to use matches as "evidence" to feed into that. If half of the bad matchups mentioned in this thread were anywhere near as awful as people claimed, the tournament landscape would look way different.

Anyway, Trela still thinks Ryu is top tier. From what I can tell, he thinks the character still has tremendous potential.
 

ParanoidDrone

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Another part of the problem, which I'm sure has been mentioned before, is that people who regularly use a given character are acutely aware of their flaws, while people who don't use that character are less aware. As a result, the first player can reasonably think the character is lower than reality, and vice versa for the second player.

Feeding into this a bit is the simple fact that we don't know what the other player is thinking. What looks smooth and effortless onscreen may be hiding a constant stream of "oh god oh god how did that work i thought i was dead and now i'm next to them in shield gotta get out of here". Or maybe that's just me. Point is, it's down to player perception and that will NEVER be the same between any two people.
 
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Another part of the problem, which I'm sure has been mentioned before, is that people who regularly use a given character are acutely aware of their flaws, while people who don't use that character are less aware. As a result, the first player can reasonably think the character is lower than reality, and vice versa for the second player.
There's also the other side in that those who regularly use a certain character or characters have more insight on their strengths. As such, they may perceive their character(s) as better.
Either way, it doesn't help that some people over exaggerate one or the other (sometimes without concrete evidence). I do wish people in general could be more realistic about the perceptions of their characters and opposing ones as well, but I may be asking for too much.
 
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Ghostbone

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Ally would have the best recent results, but the sample size of 1.1.6 majors is still pretty small.


As for Ryu, that character has no evidence of being top tier/top 5 or whatever, my impression is that Trela has bopped ZeRo and Anti in friendlies more than a few times, leading them to be super biased. Ryu is a very polarising character that has some very winnable matchups, but then also has solid counters in the top tiers (Rosa is at least -2, Sonic is probably -2 as well, many others are -1 for Ryu). That's not the matchup spread of a top tier, and there's no way Ryu finds himself in the top 10 characters of this game, especially when results have never given any support to that theory.
 
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EternalFlare

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As for Ryu, that character has no evidence of being top tier/top 5 or whatever, my impression is that Trela has bopped ZeRo and Anti in friendlies more than a few times, leading them to be super biased. Ryu is a very polarising character that has some very winnable matchups, but then also has solid counters in the top tiers (Rosa is at least -2, Sonic is probably -2 as well, many others are -1 for Ryu). That's not the matchup spread of a top tier, and there's no way Ryu finds himself in the top 10 characters of this game, especially when results have never given any support to that theory.
Exactly.

I'd argue Villager and Megaman are bad matchups for Ryu as well (possibly worse than Rosa).

Villager can run away for days while applying safe pressure. And he has some of the best edge guarding on Ryu allowing him to consistently gimp Ryu in ways no other character can. Ryu is forced to recover high in a predictable fashion and hope he doesn't eventually have to go beow the stage.

As for Megaman, Ryu simply can't compete with the characters neutral, he completely shuts Ryu down. He has to make hard read after hard read to stand a chance and abuse Megaman's lack of kill power and rage.

Edit:

I almost forgot Mario as well who beats Ryu at all aspects of the game. He out neutrals him. He destroys him in combos. Whereas Ryu's extended combos don't really work on Mario thanks to his floatiness and 3 frame nair. And if while recovering he ever does a tatsu towards the stage, it could be an instant kill on reaction thanks to cape (which is an option Mario can force out thanks to FLUDD).
 
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Nobie

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Another part of the problem, which I'm sure has been mentioned before, is that people who regularly use a given character are acutely aware of their flaws, while people who don't use that character are less aware. As a result, the first player can reasonably think the character is lower than reality, and vice versa for the second player.

Feeding into this a bit is the simple fact that we don't know what the other player is thinking. What looks smooth and effortless onscreen may be hiding a constant stream of "oh god oh god how did that work i thought i was dead and now i'm next to them in shield gotta get out of here". Or maybe that's just me. Point is, it's down to player perception and that will NEVER be the same between any two people.
I think this is actually what colors such skewed perceptions of Mewtwo. To people on the outside, Mewtwo looks like this safe, brainless character who can just dtilt and fair people to death without much worry, but to Mewtwo players themselves it's like constantly being on the precipice. There's a face Abadango makes when he messes up as Mewtwo, and it's a look any Mewtwo player can understand.

There's also nothing to suggest in theory or results that Mario beats Ryu. While Mario has the mobility advantage, his frame data isn't THAT much better than Ryu's, and because of Mario's short range he has to fight well within the Ryu danger zone. All of the other characters listed who have good matchups against Ryu have one thing in common: the ability to zone like a mofo. Mario can technically sort of kind of do that, but it's not his forte by any means.

Sometimes I think Smash players think "neutral game" means "how much can you short hop." Not to say that it's entirely untrue, but...
 
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EternalFlare

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I think this is actually what colors such skewed perceptions of Mewtwo. To people on the outside, Mewtwo looks like this safe, brainless character who can just dtilt and fair people to death without much worry, but to Mewtwo players themselves it's like constantly being on the precipice. There's a face Abadango makes when he messes up as Mewtwo, and it's a look any Mewtwo player can understand.

There's also nothing to suggest in theory or results that Mario beats Ryu. While Mario has the mobility advantage, his frame data isn't THAT much better than Ryu's, and because of Mario's short range he has to fight well within the Ryu danger zone. All of the other characters listed who have good matchups against Ryu have one thing in common: the ability to zone like a mofo. Mario can technically sort of kind of do that, but it's not his forte by any means.

Sometimes I think Smash players think "neutral game" means "how much can you short hop." Not to say that it's entirely untrue, but...
I've explained what makes the matchup bad and results do support it.

Trela has lost to Zenyou who's 3rd at best with Mario:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S12u6_nzEdQ

He's also dropped games to pocket Marios in the past.

Mario definitely can't keep Ryu out as well as the previously mentioned examples but he doesn't have to. His dair is a perfect move for shutting down Focus attack both on the ground and in the air. And he simply outpunishes Ryu which is rare as Ryu gets comboed all over the place whereas Mario doesn't. Then add his very exploitable recovery to the mix.
 
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FeelMeUp

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Well this is an interesting statement.

From what I gathered, Fox vs Ness is generally considered pretty even but I've heard both sides argue that they lose. With that said, I am inclined to believe that Ness actually beats Fox for a few reasons.
  • Grabs - When Ness gets a grab on Fox, it's almost never a good thing. At low percents we eat fair strings, and at high percents, bthrow cleans up the stock earlier than you'd expect. On the other hand, Fox gets next to nothing off of grabs.
  • PK Fire - This move is able to stuff both methods of recovering, that is Illusion and Fire Fox.
  • Air Mobility & Airdodge - It is MUCH more difficult to catch Ness coming down due to his exceptional mobility and airdodge. Definitely one of the hardest characters to juggle, which is something usually Fox excels at.
  • Nair - Although it's frame 5, it often breaks him out of things that Fox likes to throw at him. Basic MU advice we give to players looking to deal with Ness is: "After you him him, shield". Doesn't matter if it's a dash attack, utilt, dtilt, nair, the safest thing to do is shield because his Nair is so good at breaking up the pressure.
  • Fair - Just a great spacing tool, really difficult to punish... We have no move that helps us space nearly to the degree that he does.
  • PK Thunder - Even though we have shine to keep it away, the move can still be used to harass us when recovering. It's also more difficult to exploit offstage (when Ness is using it to recover) than you might imagine.
  • PK Magnet - Forcing approaches with laser is no longer a viable strategy.
  • Fox's weight - Being so light, he's so suspect to being KOed to so many options, be it any smash attack, uair, bair, dair, and of course, bthrow. Ness can clean our stock up much easier than we can clean his up, and he has more methods for doing so.
However like I said, from the resources I've looked into, it's unclear as to who really wins the MU. I don't think the MU would ever be more than 55:45 for either party. In any case, to say that Fox destroys Ness is quite the exaggeration.
I'll drop a few points on why I think Fox vs Ness is worse than even.
-In this matchup, like many, Fox controls the ground completely while Ness wins in short hop vs short hop air situations.
-His nair(though f5) tends to act like a f3 in breaking out of combos. But you've correctly noted that you should always wait until he acts to extend the strings. Utilt>shield>utilt works flawlessly, as Ness can't do anything while in lag from landing after his move has been shielded.
-Fox can efficiently pseudo laser camp Ness and force the game to a snail's pace unless Ness approaches, which Fox stuffs extremely well with PP away>DA/Jab or PP forward>Utilt.
-When I consider this matchup bad(worse than 55:45 borderline 6:4), I think of a 2 ban ruleset where Fox doesn't have to play on either FD or Smashville. I feel like Ness handily wins on both of these stages. But on picks like DH, T&C, Lylat, Battlefield and Dreamland Fox can still juggle Ness with absolutely no risk by constantly poking from below.
-Ness is extremely bad at getting off the ledge against Fox while probably being the good character that's most susceptible to Fair footstool.
-It's very difficult to flat out juggle Ness, but trapping his landings with EDD+PP utilts/usmash is absurdly easy. Ness can't do anything to try and land against Fox without having to retreat to the ledge or throw out an easily punished aerial. The only time Fox incurs risk for PP tilting towards a landing Ness is at high percent when Ness is facing away.
-Ness definitely destroys Fox offstage, like most. Stuffs side b extremely well, 2 frames extremely well, PK thunder is obnoxiously good vs Firefox on startup, etc.
-Ness grabbing Fox means huge damage or death. Fox is insanely good at playing anti grab with sub frame 5 moves that have little cooldown but you'll still get grabbed by the kid eventually.
etc
The reason I think Ness as a character is kinda ass compared to what most think is because it's so easy to lame out his bad mobility and trap his garbage recovery/off ledge options. Fox can laser camp Ness(playing around absorption ofc), stuff approaches to start combos and exploit Ness' horrible flaws over and over again. Ness is HORRIFYING once he grabs you or gets in, but playing around that is no big deal when your character's frame data and groundspeed is almost twice as fast.
and I unfortunately have to say that it's hard to find footage of this because the top players of fast characters(aside from Sonic) generally don't play lame regardless of how effective it is in a matchup.
 
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Ropalme1914

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Exactly.

I'd argue Villager and Megaman are bad matchups for Ryu as well (possibly worse than Rosa).

Villager can run away for days while applying safe pressure. And he has some of the best edge guarding on Ryu allowing him to consistently gimp Ryu in ways no other character can. Ryu is forced to recover high in a predictable fashion and hope he doesn't eventually have to go beow the stage.

As for Megaman, Ryu simply can't compete with the characters neutral, he completely shuts Ryu down. He has to make hard read after hard read to stand a chance and abuse Megaman's lack of kill power and rage.

Edit:

I almost forgot Mario as well who beats Ryu at all aspects of the game. He out neutrals him. He destroys him in combos. Whereas Ryu's extended combos don't really work on Mario thanks to his floatiness and 3 frame nair. And if while recovering he ever does a tatsu towards the stage, it could be an instant kill on reaction thanks to cape (which is an option Mario can force out thanks to FLUDD).
Why would Cape be an instant kill? Sure, it puts Ryu in a bad position, but it gives him back his Tatsu, and it's not that easy to cape Ryu when he's going to use Shoryuken.
About that thing that where Ryu belongs in the tier list, I see him around 8th. Also, I think that Ryu mains actually see him higher than the others, like Hooded, he always says that he makes his videos trying to make him top 3 (which he believes Ryu can be).
 
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