PND
Smash Champion
Your math about comebacks is completely flawed. You can't break a match down into statistics like "Player A is down 50% of his resources, and has a 25% of winning the match with two stocks versus 30% with 3 stocks" because player psychology is way too important of a factor.
One player might be down a stock and think "I'm down on resources, I should dig my heels and play safe. Keep winning small exchanges and trades until I close out the gap."
Another player, equally skilled, might think "Okay, that didn't work. I only need to kill him twice, time for some big plays."
Player A might make more comebacks with 3 stocks
Player B might make more comebacks with 2 stocks.
One player might think "Okay, down a stock, time to do this. I've still got two in the tank. No need to get desperate."
Another, equally skilled, might think "Do I really want to play like this for three whole stocks? I could just give up so I can get to my counterpick quicker."
Player A might make the comeback with 3 stocks, but perhaps not with 2.
Player B might have made that comeback if it was only 2 stocks, but perhaps not with 3.
As for timeouts, if you dial the clock down, I promise you I will go into every match, every set, every tournament with the intent to time out players. You are completely wrong on that front. It will not make the game more exciting at all. If matches are already taking 5 minutes for two stock and going to time, one extra minute will not in any way, shape, or form make up for the extra stock.
You're right, as the game develops, players will find more efficient ways to kill. That's also what they said about Brawl. The truth is: as players discover more efficient ways to kill, they will also discover more efficient ways to not be killed.
We can't make a safe bet that "Oh, I think matches will go faster as we get better." Because the opposite could be just as true. As offensive play and offensive strategies emerge, so will defensive ones. And historically, Smash is very, very defensive. (Even Melee)
We need to plan for the game we have now, not the game we might have in 5 years. Right now, I firmly believe 2 stocks is the best for the current metagame.
One player might be down a stock and think "I'm down on resources, I should dig my heels and play safe. Keep winning small exchanges and trades until I close out the gap."
Another player, equally skilled, might think "Okay, that didn't work. I only need to kill him twice, time for some big plays."
Player A might make more comebacks with 3 stocks
Player B might make more comebacks with 2 stocks.
One player might think "Okay, down a stock, time to do this. I've still got two in the tank. No need to get desperate."
Another, equally skilled, might think "Do I really want to play like this for three whole stocks? I could just give up so I can get to my counterpick quicker."
Player A might make the comeback with 3 stocks, but perhaps not with 2.
Player B might have made that comeback if it was only 2 stocks, but perhaps not with 3.
As for timeouts, if you dial the clock down, I promise you I will go into every match, every set, every tournament with the intent to time out players. You are completely wrong on that front. It will not make the game more exciting at all. If matches are already taking 5 minutes for two stock and going to time, one extra minute will not in any way, shape, or form make up for the extra stock.
You're right, as the game develops, players will find more efficient ways to kill. That's also what they said about Brawl. The truth is: as players discover more efficient ways to kill, they will also discover more efficient ways to not be killed.
We can't make a safe bet that "Oh, I think matches will go faster as we get better." Because the opposite could be just as true. As offensive play and offensive strategies emerge, so will defensive ones. And historically, Smash is very, very defensive. (Even Melee)
We need to plan for the game we have now, not the game we might have in 5 years. Right now, I firmly believe 2 stocks is the best for the current metagame.
Last edited: