2015 and Beyond: Can Falcon win a national?

[Mastodon]

Falcon needs to win a national. Otherwise, I don't really think we can see him as a viable character(S tier definition) anymore. The highest placing Falcon at Apex was S2J, sitting at 17th.

Both S2J and wizzy got knocked out of winners by PP who was playing the most on point I've ever seen PP play. With all due respect, I think the lack of falcon in at least the top 16 was kind of just a fluke. I mean, M2K wasn't even top 8.

 

[FalconOwnage]

I disagree on grounds of having a different definition of "0-death"
I see 0-death as an unbroken combo that can ONLY BE AFFECTED by DI [as in NOT techs, spotdoges, shines, etc]

I guess it depends on the definition of "0-to-death". According to Smash Wiki:

"A zero-to-death combo, commonly referred to as a zero-death or 0-death for short, is a combo, usually particularly long and intricate, that starts on an opponent at 0% damage, and ends with the eventual KO of the character being comboed."

Smash Wiki goes on to state that:

"Zero-to-death combos also vary in characteristics in the games; whereas the original game focuses on continued aerial combat, particularly with drills and similar traps, Melee, with its lesser hitstun, relies on good movement and tech chasing."

Falcon has good movement and tech chasing.
He has the best movement in the game.
He has great punishes off of opponent's techs.

Additionally, I am assuming that the Falcon player has the the fastest possible human reaction time. If this is true, he will be able to react to any type of get-up or tech that the opponent does, and then he will continue the combo.

 

[FalconOwnage]

double_post

 

[LyeN]

I thought S2J was getting better at edge guarding, but he looked like his old self against PPMD. Maybe he was too nervous to edge guard in that high stakes tourney match? I'm not sure what S2J's issue is, but I think that anyone would agree that his edge guarding is what is holding him back. He needs to focus on it, and commit to practicing it thoroughly. Hopefully someone knowledgable can talk to him about it.

 

[0Room]

Additionally, I am assuming that the Falcon player has the the fastest possible human reaction time. If this is true, he will be able to react to any type of get-up or tech that the opponent does, and then he will continue the combo.

But if this person has the fastest human reaction time, it wouldn't matter what type of character they played. If they were able to perfectly read the reactions of the opponent, you could beat anyone with any character. That wouldn't make Falcon better, just means that the player is better than the other person.

Then, if we gave the opponent the ability to also have perfect reaction time then you have TAS fox and no one's gonna win against that.
Basically what I'm saying is if you need perfect reaction time to win then it's not really a winning match up IMO.

I get what you're saying, and at one time I honestly believed that as well, but at this point in time I think Hax's 9th place at EVO 2013 is the highest we're ever going to see a Falcon place at a national.

 

[meme2king]

0room you make no sense. First you say that tech chasing is escapable, and then when corrected you say " oh well any character can zero to death then".

Not really. Falcons tech chase on species is not only broken, it is well within human reaction time. And you can tech chase with knee and stomp when you need to, also within human reaction time. Obviously fox has more options, but it isn't far fetched at all to say that falcon will kill off a grab consistently once falcon players improve a lot

 

[THE adversary]

http://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/2vz0pr/gravy_explains_how_to_techchase_optimally_with/
well within reaction time indeed

 

[Stegosaur]

I agree with everyone saying that the "smarter" falcons will probably start to be the better ones, Falcon's tech skill is obviously important but a lot of his gameplay is based off of reads as well as combos, and if you can't read to start a combo then you'll lose.

Also if people start using Uair a lot we can go back to smash 64 meta where you spam uair combos into Up-B

 

[stullam]

"It's not about winning, It's about sending a message."

 

[BTmoney]

Tech chasing fox 0-death is feasible and will happen more often but won't ever be expected.

Falco is much harder since his tech rolls are better but many people believe Falco is getting worse not better as the meta progresses. Maybe the MU will settle down to a fair 6-4 or slightly better. (Can't confirm though since PP is almost literally the only Falco that dash dances. There is huge room for Falco development)

Falcon sheik is about 6-4 but maybe becoming a little more even once falcon lames out hard in neutral and punishes hard consistently. It's like combo'ing marth so there's really no reason why you can't win this MU.

And his DD is completely broken and is an issue for every character in the game.

Tldr, yes it's possible and mango definitely would have done it by now if he solo mained falcon for a substantial amount of time.

Even more possible with a bit of bracket luck (not running into tons of Falcos and sheiks who are specifically good at the MU).


2 years ago people were asking if fox could win a national lmao and people questioned marth ever since the modern era. So please stop. You play players not match ups.

 

[TheWeis]

I feel like Falcon meta is being pushed a lot more than Falco, so maybe it will get better at high levels for a while. Good point bt$

 

[stullam]

I think winning a national could always be possible, but I doubt it could become a constant thing, atleast soon. Falcon's speed and ability to apply pressure is solid-fairly good so I think you would require some hard tech chases/reads to be able to take down some giants. Falcon is left at a disadvantage on many stages compared to most of the top 8 characters, and a lot of them can abuse his recovery on most of the smaller/compact stages, (he can thrive on neutral Pokemon Stadium and on FD, but 'can' should be very emphasised.)
I would say with some good matches and a few hard reads, of course falcon could take a national. He benefits off reads so much that I would argue it's one of the biggest reasons he's top tier, but also makes him such a large gamble sometimes. But meh, if Amsa can do that with Yoshi, we can do anything with falcon.

 

[TheWeis]

If we really believe it can't be done without lots of hard reads, I guess we wait for mango falcon.

 

[Jim Jam Flim Flam]

If we really believe it can't be done without lots of hard reads, I guess we wait for mango falcon.

Without reads falcon is reduced to a boring, dash dancing character who waits for an opportunity before going in for any attack*coughwizzrobecough*, but it does make the character more consistent and viable against players who are unpredictable
Mango is good at falcon because he's mango. I don't think he can beat Armada and PPMD and Leffen with that crazy Falcon play. He needs to reserve that style for Fox, and play much more slowly and cautiously when using falcon

 

[stullam]

Doesn't it make falcon so much better to watch though!!

 

[Jim Jam Flim Flam]

Doesn't it make falcon so much better to watch though!!

Oh man Mango's Falcon is about the coolest **** you can watch on a screen

 

[stullam]

Oh man Mango's Falcon is about the coolest **** you can watch on a screen

BRUHH, S2J!?

 

[Jim Jam Flim Flam]

BRUHH, S2J!?

Yeah but I don't think he knows how to grab the ledge, it kinda ruins the whole experience.
Those johknees are pretty sexy tho

 

[N7S]

Oh man Mango's Falcon is about the coolest **** you can watch on a screen

Being able to face Mango's Falcon in a ditto was probably one of the best moments I've ever had in my young Smash career. Seeing that he relies on a lot more reads than tech skill gives me hope that with enough smarts, Falcon has mad potential. It may take some time, but the good mindset is a start. Give it one or two more years and the Falcons will be back. Grinding and refining ourselves is the first priority though. We're in no shape to win it yet. But we'll get there.

 

[Spoice]

Let's put it this way.

If a yoshi player can get fifth at Apex 2015, one of the biggest ever melee tourneys, I think it's safe to say Falcons has a shot at winning a major, just wait for advancements to take place, or better yet, get off smashboards worrying about his future and get in the lab and contribute.

 

[stullam]

Let's put it this way.

If a yoshi player can get fifth at Apex 2015, one of the biggest ever melee tourneys, I think it's safe to say Falcons has a shot at winning a major, just wait for advancements to take place, or better yet, get off smashboards worrying about his future and get in the lab and contribute.

Not to be a downer, and I agree whole heartedly, but remember that Yoshi isn't a very much played character, especially compared to falcon. Considering how aMSa placed in 2015 EVO I think it's very telling of what could happen with an under used/under appreciated character like Yoshi, but isn't really fair to compare how that 1 yoshi could do with what the thousands of Falcons could do. We have all Vs'd Falcons better and worse then us, but how many have Vs'd a next level yoshi.

 

[chis5050]

Don't worry guys Im going to BH5 and my falcons been 2 and 3 stocking my brother and the kid down the street so I think i've got a pretty good shot at 1st

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[TheWeis]

Even S2J has issues actually, I think he got like 33rd at Paragon. 20GX people did even worse. But Falcon can definitely win something. A lot of high level players seem to think so. PP said he could move up above puff and peach with more advancements.

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[Spoice]

I'm pretty sure I've said this before, but the fact is very simple. Every Falcon just isn't good enough, even when Hax would play on point, he wasn't good enough. Imagine, back when he first started the game, Armada picked up Falcon over peach. A player on that level, with that sort of punish game, combos, neutral game etc could easily make it with Falcon. 20GX is flawed to me, personally, simply because they're just trying to optimize falcon, get the best out of him as a character, when they're not focusing as much on them self. It's cool and all just know how to tech chase a fox 0-death on FD, and yeah what 20GX has brought along is great, but it all comes down to the players skill, and that goes for any characters. It's simply a matter of working harder with Falcon to get that first, while a Marth main wouldn't have to work as hard because of better options.

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[Spoice]

Now that some time has passed since my last comment, my opinion has changed a little bit. Tournaments like TO11 and STR prove Falcon CAN win a national (TO11 winners finals was Wizy vs N0ne). The Falcon talent IMO has been improving (S2J, N0ne, and Jeapie in particular look SCARY good) and I feel like it can happen soon. There are still some roadblocks, (like the gods or running into spacies/ Sheik early in bracket) but I feel like Falcon is overall improving in the meta right now.

At this point, I feel like the Sheik matchup is either even, or barely in sheik's favour. Drugged Fox has dropped sets to Gravy and Wizzy this year, and m2k has been run extremely close by wizzy, coming down to last stock at mlg finals.

The Fox matchup isn't as bad as everyone says if I'm honest, you just gotta play similar to how Armada plays his peach against spacies, lots of baits and hard, long punishes.

The Falco matchup is the melee equivalent to suicide tho.

 

[FEOwain]

The Falco matchup is the melee equivalent to suicide tho.

Gahtzu feels like Falco:Falcon is even or in Falcon's favor. I don't necesarilly agree with him, but I can see where he's coming from. If the Falcon player is basically Ice/Mew2King and can powershield almost every single laser and wavedash out into punish, Falcon could possibly have an even matchup vs. Falco. And now that we've confirmed that the "really hard matchups" can possibly be even, Falcon's chances improve immensely. And I agree with the other guy. TO11 gave me hope with Wizzrobe vs. n0ne in WF.

 

[1MachGO]

I used to be more optimistic about Falcon but now I am leaning towards the "too inconsistent camp"

Skill wise, S2J is arguably a top 15 player and he is the SSS champ. But he chokes at majors and can lose unexpectedly or to worse players.

Why?

Maybe S2J and Wizzrobe "aren't there yet"... but isn't that a little weird considering their advantages? They both get practice against gods (Wizzy even gets to play with Plup) AND play in the strongest regions in the US. Its odd they haven't cracked top 8 at a huge major.

So why do I look at brackets and see Wizzy drop sets against Duck? Isn't he patient? Shouldn't Falcon be able to exploit Samus when he is patient and abuse her lack of mobility? Hasn't Wizzy gotten loads of practice in this MU vs Plup? Doesn't Falcon win this match ups in general? Was Duck even in the conversation of being better than Wizzy?

And then you get situations like S2J losing to MacD at CEO for 13th or squandering a ride to top 8 when he lost to Abate at BH5. And yes, jank happened to S2J game 5 vs. Abate... but it went to game 5, last stock in the first place.

It seems to me that there is just as much evidence to suggest that Falcon has "potential" as there is to say he is severely limited by his attributes. Falcon's punish game feels decidedly overrated when any other high and top tier can zero to death him with marginally more (or sometimes less) effort. His speed is his next best asset but even that gets challenged when he simple lacks the attacks or defense to compliment it. No pokes, no projectile, no disjointed hitbox, and limited ground moves puts him at neutral disadvantage in several match ups. He is vulnerable to call outs and pays the price in spades.

It might sound ridiculous but I honestly think Falcons just need to embrace the linearity of the character. He doesn't have the same safety nets Marth, Fox, and even Pikachu arguably do to constantly engage in the familiar dash-dance scenario. He'll probably have to abuse platform camping a lot more if he wants to win nationals.

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[1MachGO]

That's just the players not being skilled enough yet not the character itself... I realize it's harder to win a national as Falcon opposed to someone like spacies/ Sheik, but I feel like it's possible with good enough players.

I will reiterate...
S2J and Wizzy have ABSURD advantages in regards to who they get to practice against
S2J and Wizzy approach the character in completely different ways
BOTH suffer from consistency issues out of region

So again, when is S2J skilled enough? Is he really not in the same league as MacD or Lucky? Why do they outperform him at so many majors? Why are Falcons dropping sets to "floaties" he should beat.

Ice Climbers and Samus are both considered worse than Falcon, arguably worse players in their top 2 reps, and yet they continue to shell out better results. You could argue that Wobble's evo run was a better demonstration of Ice Climber's potential than Hax's entire Falcon career was for that character

At this point, it may be naive to think Falcon is the 7th best character in the game. Maybe he still has potential to win nationals, but it seems evident that his fragility is a cumbersome counterweight to his punish game. What is to be gained by having one of the strongest punish games in the cast when virtually every relevant char can do the same back?

Perhaps in a vacuum Falcon is the 7th best character everyone wants him to be, but meta wise, I think he has established himself as 9th or 10th. His attributes put him in too many 50/50s; he isn't that reliable.

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[1MachGO]

Just because you get practice with JUST Cali and Florida does NOT mean they will be prepared for everybody even though they ARE strong regions. They get no practice OOR hence the consistency issues OOR. Mac D and especially Lucky are by no mean consistent players. You can also throw Westballz into this argument (name the last time he topped 32 at an Apex lol). To be fair Duck is getting really good AND consistent, although he's the only good Samus main. Hugs is on a cold streak similar to Fly and Plup only pockets Samus now. Falcon does much better on the regional level than Samus AND IC's.

Wobbles EVO run was only one tournament and IC's don't get the consistent result Falcon does (other than the EVO's which for some reason IC's do magically good lol). Look at TO11 where Wobbles, Nintendude, AND Fly underperformed while N0ne and Wizy went to town. It's not like it's Apex 2014 any more where NO Falcon got into top 32 (S2J showed up late and got DQ'ed from winners). I feel like the Falcons are doing much better than they were doing a year and a half ago.

You are still making excuses for Wizzrobe and S2J.

Wizzrobe travels plenty out of region. S2J doesn't travel more or less than a lot of unsponsored players at his skill, but he still travels a decent amount. Even more than players such as PPU.

MacD, Lucky, and Westballz being inconsistent is avoiding the point when their peak performances at majors are clearly higher than S2J's despite coming from the same region. Westballz and MacD don't get frequent play sessions with Mango.

I also feel like you are cherry picking in regards to ICs. Generally speaking, ICs have better results at large scale tournaments and are more proven at top level. You also missed the point I was trying to bring up with the evo run. The fact it happened doesn't definitively mean Ice Climbers > Falcon, but it is important evidence when discussing how much PROVEN potential these characters have. Wobbles PROVED he can take sets off 4 of the 5 gods with his character. IIRC, Wizzrobe has beaten Hbox but between him and S2J I don't think they have any other God wins.

And while TO11 isn't irrelevant, it obviously isn't as significant as tournaments with far more top level talent present. Paragon LA, for instance, had more gods and over 500 players in attendance. S2J got 25th and Nintendude got 7th.

 

[Twinkles]

I think s2j hasn't practiced enough tech just IMO. He has gone on record saying he prefers just playing against Mango and doesn't really do any solo practice, hoping he changes that, at least for getting more guaranteed followups on MUs that arent' Fox/Falco.

Wizzy's much younger in-game wise than most players above him, he can definitely get better than he already is right now IMO

I think looking at results is fine, but it's not really end all be all as far as telling of a character's potential goes unless they're like Bowser.

TL;DR I don't think current results actually say anything meaningful about Falcon's potential as a character. It was a better argument went Hax was the end all be all Falcon.

 

[1MachGO]

I am not trying to say that results are the end all be all, but you do have to admit that results are a more credible starting point than "Falcon's potential".

To elaborate, I feel like Falcon enthusiasts already have a preconceived notion about his capabilities. Any information that proves the contrary won't be heard because his "potential" is known despite never being proven; it is purely theoretical.

Theory should stem from evidence. Evidence includes things like results, character technology, meta trends, circumstances, etc.

So if you take Falcon off his pedestal and look a the evidence, objectively, what is there to prove that he isn't a woefully inconsistent character and increasingly overrated as the 7th best character in the game during the current meta? There is obviously no denying that he isn't "maxed" out, so to speak, but which character isn't?

To close, I am not trying to say abandon all hope or anything like that, but it is pretty clear that his prospects of winning a national are hardly higher than Samus's and certainly lower than Ice Climbers and Pikachu.

 

[Nishifue]

aaaaaaaaaa

 

[1MachGO]

I can respect the opinion that IC's and maybe Samus having a higher ceiling than Falcon, but Falcon >>>>> Pika. Without Axe Pikachu is NOTHING. It doesnt't help he's kinda in a slump right now.

Replace Pikachu with Puff and Axe with Hungrybox and tell me the argument still applies. Because you would still be using the same logic.

 

[Twinkles]

I think the argument also goes the other way around, I feel like a lot of people disenchanted with Falcon look a lot at results and don't really watch how the matches unfolded or in what way Falcon mains are really losing.

Sure no, character is figured out, but I think the fact that there are a lot of Falcon mains there with a wide variety in playstyle and with wide variety in choices while performing decently. As such I'd say there's a lot of potential for Falcon since the mains can get away with doing such drastically different things from each other and still find success.

You're also right there are such things as meta trends, as in trends go up and trends go down and Falcon can come in and out of the meta honestly depending a lot based off trending decisions in gameplay/character choices. Every character also wanes and waxes in their highest level performance largely depending on who's playing them at any given time, so I think keeping this info in mind makes unfair to just justify Falcon below IC's and Pika because of lackluster performances over the last couple months.

Your argument about IC's winning EVO 2013 could be used to say that IC's were viable at one point, but the meta's evolved, people know how to play against IC's so that's why no IC's player has ever done as well as Wobbles did at one point 2 years ago (which could be backed up by how poorer it seems most IC's are doing in relation to how they did before).

Pika is hard to place in the current meta imo just because Axe is the only Pika doing anything notable at nationals. I could interpret this as Pikachu having a lot of unfound potential(?) or I could interpret this as Axe showing that even with a character with not top-tier tools, you win by being really good and also making use of character knowledge other people won't have. You're right that this could be me just being stubborn, but I don't really see how your side of the argument is much better in this situation.