Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 55% - This one's pretty much a tossup, but considering Sakurai has a bias towards the franchise, and that a sequel was made after Brawl, I'd say it's more likely than not that we'll see Saki join the roster. However, due to the high amount of competition for the remaining spots, he could still end up missing out.

Want: 70% - I'd definitely like to see him, as a unique moveset is all but guaranteed base on his assist trophy moves alone. That, and I'm always supportive of new series representation, which is something I feel we'll be seeing a lot more of in SSB4.

Medusa Prediction: 25% - If we get another new KI rep after Palutena, it'll be her, but it's all down to whether or not Sakurai feels like giving KI 3 reps.

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh x5 (almost theeeeeeere! :D )

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 40%
Want: 25%

Medusa: 15%

Karate Joe x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Saki
Likelihood: 42% I don't know a whole lot about his games, but he's one the most likely ATs to become a playable character.
Want: 40% He seems like a pretty cool character with promising moveset potential, so I wouldn't be against him becoming a playable character. I would however be pretty upset if he made it in and Isaac didn't...but that's just me..

Medusa: 12%

Nominations:
Porky Minch x5

 

[Xenigma]

Saki - 40%
One of the few Assist Trophies that has a great case to be made playable. Granted, his series is small and arguably not important enough for Smash, but that hasn't stopped Mother from getting two characters, so what's wrong with S&P getting one very unique one? Sakurai actually likes him, he should have a unique moveset, and he would introduce a new series to Smash that had a game as recently as 2010. The questions then are if Sakurai thinks S&P is notable enough, if the roster has space, and if Isa should be in due to recency. All seem like minor roadblocks, but enough that he isn't exactly a shoe-in, so he gets a merely good rating. Count on a return as an AT should roster inclusion not work out.
Want - 60% - Never played the games, but based on that AT, he sure does look like he could be fun.

Medusa Prediction - 15%
I keep tossing out 15%s at characters that are getting nominated despite my opinion they have no significant chance. Medusa's another such character, so let's see if the number is actually valid this time around.

Nominations
Sonic x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Saki prediction - 55%

As has been said before sakurai seems to have a bias for this series. Who knows if that will be enough but I wouldn't be too surprised to see him make the roster.

Want - 60%

He looks cool although I haven't played either of the games he comes from. I liked his assist trophy in brawl.

Medusa prediction - 20%

If we get a new icarus rep it will likely be palutena. I can't see the series getting 2 new reps. Medusa will have a better shot in the 5th smash bros...and a new kid icarus game between now and then wouldn't hurt.

Noms:

Chibi robo x2
Robin x2
Isaac x1

 

[Diddy Kong]

Saki

Chance: 40%
Want: 35%

Yeah he has a chance, but Isaac is currently still the most popular AT character. His series got a recent revival, and iirc his own game was translated for the Wii's VC. So that's all cool. He'd have an interessting moveset, but looking back, such a moveset / playstyle would also suit Pit. Sure, he'd be cool. But I'd much rather have others.

Impa x 5

 

[cephalopod17]

Saki's Chances: 25%
There is a little bias,he is recent and somewhat popular.

Saki's Want: 20%
He is cool,but I prefer Little Mac,Issac or Dillon.

Medusa Prediction: 20%

Nominations: Samurai Goroh x5

 

[Ephecus]

Saki

Chance: 45 %
Want: 50 %
Going with the general consent here I think Saki has realistic chances but probably might just be featured as an assist trophy again.

Medusa Prediction: 20 %

Nominations:
5x Robin

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chances: 30%.

Want: 50%.

Medusa prediction: 30%.

Skull Kid X5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Saki

Likelihood: 40% - Sakurai said he likes him and his series also got a new game post-Brawl, so he's got that going

Want: 50 - Don't really care

Medusa: 17%

Nominations:
Primid x2
Blaziken x3

 

[Primid]

Saki

Likelihood: 25% He was an assist trophy in Brawl, which could have been his first step to becoming a playable character in the upcoming game. And he's one of the few assist trophy characters that have the potential to do so. Though, he's facing a lot of competition and might end up not making the cut.
Want: 20% I'd be fine with him as either a playable character or as an assist trophy.

Medusa Prediction: 19%

Nominations:
Porky x3
Chibi-Robo x2

 

[Yams]

Saki:
Likelihood: 35% I'd imagine other Misc characters come before him.
Want: 20% I'd rather have Nintendog, Isaac, Little Mac, Herlerin, Waluigi, and Mr Resetti first.

 

[SchAlternate]

Saki:
Likelihood: 35% I'd imagine other Misc characters come before him.
Want: 20% I'd rather have Nintendog, Isaac, Little Mac, Herlerin, Waluigi, and Mr Resetti first.

...ಠ_ಠ

 

[Erimir]

Saki

Popularity: Well, some people seem to be fans of Saki without playing his games. But the sales of the two games aren't particularly high. Around half a million for the two physical releases. We don't know how well the VC release sold, but it was probably not amazing. Probably less than a million for the series overall. Not that sales mean everything. Earthbound doesn't have high sales either and some suggested retro reps also don't have high sales (Takamaru, for example). His games were well-reviewed though.

Relevancy: Well, he was the star of one, Japan-only game. He got a Western release via VC and a sequel in which he's not the star. He was also an AT in Brawl. I think this makes him somewhat relevant, but not nearly as much as some other characters.

Design: Well, he'd be a sword and projectile type character, which we don't have yet. He doesn't have "ginormous move set potential" from what I can tell*. They'd be able to come up with a move set easily, but it's not like they have a giant buffet of options from "laser sword" and "laser gun". Anyway, he'd be fairly different from other characters currently in the game. However, there are a number of potential newcomers which he would have some similarity to. Namely, other characters with both a sword-type weapon and projectile-type attacks. Such as Isaac, Takamaru, Claus/Masked Man, Ghirahim or even Ganondorf with a new move set. Saki's weapons also seem a bit similar to the Beam Sword and the Ray Gun. And Pit already has bladed weapons that can shoot projectiles (and that was true before Uprising), although not a sword.

Anyway, he'd be unique enough. But he's not as unique as, say, K Rool or Isaac IMO. Random note is that he kinda reminds me of Sora from Kingdom Hearts (it's mostly the outfit).

Roster and Competition: Well, he'd repping a new series. But I did mention some characters that are competition in a way by having some similarity. He also has to compete against other new series reps like Shulk, Isaac, Takamaru, Little Mac, Mii, Dillon, Starfy, Custom Robo, etc. some of whom are more deserving IMO.

Saki chances: 20%
I'm surprised at how high everyone else is rating him. He's a relatively unknown character whose biggest claim to fame is probably appearing as an AT in Brawl. He has better chances than many, but the competition isn't THAT lax. Note that some of the other ATs brought up as contenders like Little Mac, Isaac, Samurai Goroh, Starfy, and Waluigi all have more sales and more games under their belts (although less prominence within their games for Goroh and Waluigi). Maybe if they're planning another Sin and Punishment game...

Saki want: 43%
I haven't played his games, so I'm mostly indifferent. I'm also not as impressed by his "uniqueness" as others as far as his move set. I don't dislike him, he seems kinda cool. But there are some other characters that I'd rather see (like Isaac)

Medusa prediction: 13%
Seems like most people think Palutena is much, much more likely.

Nominations: I'm gonna put the remaining veterans on the board because why not
1x Pichu
1x Young Link
3x Mike Jones

*For comparison, I would say that LINK is a character that truly has ginormous move set potential. Link has enough gadgets and moves left that you could make three more unique characters based off of him, easily. You've got the Pegasus Boots, Grappling Hook, the Whip, variations on the Hook Shot, variations on the Hammer, various magic rods (including some really unique ones like the Cane of Somaria), the Deku Leaf, Magic Powder, unused magic spells, etc. etc.

It all really depends on whether Sakurai thinks Sin and Punishment is important enough, but it's still a pretty popular franchise and Saki was an AT in Brawl

It might be that fans of the series are very into it, but I don't know if it counts as "popular". As I pointed out, it's really not a very high selling series. Earthbound has over twice as many sales, and it's one of the lowest selling in there already.

Sakurai said " He rivals just about any main character. There were many requests from users for his inclusion, and he IS pretty cool" and "H-he has absolutely no problem fitting in!"

Well, as long as we're overanalyzing his old Brawl posts, the full statement is "There were many requests from users for his inclusion, and he IS pretty cool, so I did what I could to include him."

That kinda implies, "well, a number of people wanted him, but he wasn't really worthy of a playable slot, so I did what I could and made him an AT."

At any rate, they're positive statements, but hardly the sort of thing that would make me think he is among the most likely characters, because his downsides are still there. If not for the AT and such, I'd probably only rate him around 7%, I don't see how they boost him up to 40-70% like some people have given him.

Sakurai has shown a personal bias towards this character so I don't know if the opinions of other people affects his inclusion...

What's the big personal bias? That he said nice things about him on the Dojo? Or that he borrowed ideas from it for Kid Icarus?

I mean isn't that how his Ice Climbers got in.

Yeah, but Ice Climbers were retro. Sin & Punishment had a sequel in 2010.

 

[Yams]

...ಠ_ಠ

You can't tell me with a straight face that Nintendog WOULDN'T be fun to play as XD

 

[XenothiumX]

Hey Groose here is some S&P music from Saki's game

Music Raid Blue ( I can't remember if this song came from the first level or if it is from the training mode) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXPJKXS1KsY&list=PLFB6A3E2E40A87DCA

Result of Victory ( this would be Saki's victory song when he wins a match of Smash): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xf4hs_hfzQ&list=PLFB6A3E2E40A87DCA

Music Ally Risker's (this song is from one of the later levels) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOEV0Mty2zM&list=PLFB6A3E2E40A87DCA

Wait Soon Ripe ( Hmmm... I don't remember this song to well, I think it from another level) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTqlZmIYygw&list=PLFB6A3E2E40A87DCA

Heroin 'a' :[collapse=don't open it you don't want the game spoiled]this song is when Airen has a vision and sees her son isa[/collapse] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6fqo0FdHLM&list=PLFB6A3E2E40A87DCA

 

[jaytalks]

Saki's chances: 35%. I find the chances of him or Isa Jo (his son) practically interchangeable, as neither has a real strong advantage over the other. Saki has a better design. So this ranking is more for either of the two S&P protagonists appearing, although for argument's sake Saki might be more likely due to his status as an assist trophy. In terms of assist trophies, I find Isaac, Little Mac, and him to be the most likely, with Saki being the least likely out of the three. The release of Star Successor suggested that Nintendo valued the franchise, being one of the only virtual console releases that localized a game.

Saki's Want: 99%. I loved the series and would love to see either protagonist in Smash. I feel like Saki really could bring an interesting moveset and has a design that both fits Smash and that is very different from the others. That 1% of hold out is because I would prefer Kachi for the S&P series. She's the one I played as in S&P and she is three-fer for representing a series. She's one of the game's main characters. She happens to be female. And she's

Spoiler

Achi, the villain from the first game

But back to Saki. Great character. Really hope to see in Smash.

Medusa Predictions: I remember reading Nintendo Power and thinking how much of a villain she was. She was practically on the status of Ganon and Bowser back in the day. So I'm really pulling for her. But in terms of predictions for ranking her rating tomorrow: 13.67%

Nominations:
Karate Joe x 5

 

[Starbound]

Saki: 30%
Depends how much Sakurai looks at pre Brawl popularity.

Want: 25%
Doesn't interest me.

Nomz: 5x Mach Rider

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Saki Amamiya

Chance: 20% - He is somewhat popular and even has Sakurai's attention. However he does have strong competition.

Want: 30% - He's okay, and seems like he could bring something interesting to smash. But Isaac is my most wanted of the blond bishounen brigade (Isaac, Shulk, Saki) followed by Shulk.

Medusa Prediction: 33% - I don't know much about the Kid Icarus potential newcomers other than she has been usurped by Palutena, so this is really just a blind guess.

Nominations:
Porky Minch x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Saki
Saki chances: 20%
I'm surprised at how high everyone else is rating him. He's a relatively unknown character whose biggest claim to fame is probably appearing as an AT in Brawl.

he is not unknown to Sakurai and people who pay attention to the Assist Trophies.

He has better chances than many, but the competition isn't THAT lax. Note that some of the other ATs brought up as contenders like Little Mac, Isaac, Samurai Goroh, Starfy, and Waluigi all have more sales and more games under their belts (although less prominence within their games for Goroh and Waluigi). Maybe if they're planning another Sin and Punishment game...

I like to read your analysis's each day, but it seems like game sales affect your personal bias. Game sales do count for something... but you might have to look at exceptions like Saki. And who knows? maybe they might make/remake a S&P in the future.

Saki want: 30%
I haven't played his games, so I'm mostly indifferent, and there are some other characters that I'd rather see (like Isaac). I'm also not as impressed by his "uniqueness" as others.

you should play his game. It would allow you to see more potential in him and make a better judgement

*For comparison, I would say that LINK is a character that truly has ginormous move set potential. Link has enough gadgets and moves left that you could make three more unique characters based off of him, easily. You've got the Pegasus Boots, Grappling Hook, the Whip, variations on the Hook Shot, variations on the Hammer, various magic rods (including some really unique ones like the Cane of Somaria), the Deku Leaf, Magic Powder, unused magic spells, etc. etc.

potential gadgets are used in his series too i.e. Laser guns, Lazer swords that have the ability to reflect projectiles, jet packs, hover boards, the ability to mutate, ect. ect.

Well, as long as we're overanalyzing his old Brawl posts, the full statement is "There were many requests from users for his inclusion, and he IS pretty cool, so I did what I could to include him."

one could argue you are underanalyzing. That statement in bold could also be used to support him; suggesting that Sakurai when out of his way to include Saki because he liked the character and would have made him playable, however, was limited by constraints. Sakurai probably thought Saki was not worthy at that time to be playable, but now, for this game he is.

At any rate, they're positive statements, but hardly the sort of thing that would make me think he is among the most likely characters, because his downsides are still there. If not for the AT and such, I'd probably only rate him around 7%, I don't see how they boost him up to 40-70% like some people have given him.
What's the big personal bias? That he said nice things about him on the Dojo? Or that he borrowed ideas from it for Kid Icarus?
Yeah, but Ice Climbers were retro. Sin & Punishment had a sequel in 2010.

Retro shmetro, while we should expect more retro characters that doesn't stop Sakurai from branching out to other characters.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Saki:

Likelihood: 15% - He seems like a character that isn't known enough by the general public, I at least had no idea who he was pre-Brawl. And yes, in the past it wasn't a problem to include Ness, Lucas and the likes, but since we'll have quite the limited newcomer spots this time around every spot has got to count. His support is not really so noticeable either. Still, he has obviously been shown some attention by Sakurai, so I'm not gonna rule him out completely.

Want: 5% - No thanks, he's perfect as an AT if you ask me.

Medusa Prediction: 10%

Nominations:
5x Ridley

 

[Sid-cada]

Saki

Chance - 25% - The protagonist of a notable but not quite famous game, and appearing in its only sequel. The completion is getting fierce, and I don't quite think there is room for him. If Sakurai thinks we can squeeze him in and he thinks he might add something to the roster, Saki stands a chance, but it's not a very noticeable one.

Want - 43% - Would certainly be somewhat interesting. I thought he might be a good way to get Uprising's style of play in, but right now I can't shake the notion that he'll end up being "Megaman with more close ranged options."


Medusa Prediction - 18% - What was that one thing someone said?... Oh, yeah! "She's old news, and old news bores me." Palutena, plus a certain someone, really evaporated her support.

Nominations
Starfy X4
Lip X1

 

[shinhed-echi]

SAKI:

Chance: 75% (and yeah, I can say this with a straight face)
+ Sakurai showed interest in him by including him as an assist trophy in Brawl (I think stickers also)
+ Fan demand for him was high late in Brawl's development.
+ Sin & Punishment was re-released for VC, this time to the whole world.
+ Its success spwaned a sequel known as Sin & Punishment: The Lost Successor, which made the series even more relevant.
+ Nintendo held a contest for said sequel, for who could have the highest score by a certain date.
+ Sin & Punishment, even if not mentioned anywhere, clearly inspired Sakurai in the making of Kid Icarus Uprising, as its basically the exact same genre and a very similar gameplay style.
+ A new franchise to represent. Why not one that ALMOST made it as playable?


- Maybe Sakurai wants to go with quirkier characters like Stafy as opposed to the more serious fighters.

/ We have several guns, and several sword users in the roster. Being a hybrid between the two might or might not help him.


Want: 100%
I think Saki would be a PERFECT addition to the SSB cast. His AT in Brawl kind of transmitted that willingness to be a playable character (and the way Sakurai worded it in Saki's AT bio on the Dojo) somehow.
He could represent the 3D Shoot-em-up AND Hack & Slash genres quite well.
It's perhaps the 2nd best example of how franchises from Japan can become successful in the west as well. (1st best example is Fire Emblem).
Not to mention his moveset potential would be INCREDIBLE. For starters, having a character with a CROSSHAIR on the screen while he points and shoots exactly where he wants to, sounds like an awesome deal to me.


Nominate: Mike Jones. x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Saki Amamiya - 40% What a great potential character who was a fully fledged Assist Trophy. The series is definitely not dead, and representing his rail-shooter style gameplay would be a pretty unique concept. He is far from a lock though, with a plethora of competition.

predict Medusa 16%

Ryu (Street Fighter) x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Wow, I'm really surprised that apparently people think Saki is as likely as getting Head (or Tails) on a coin toss.

Saki Amamiya
Chances: 27%
Again, I personally find him likely, but not THAT likely. Everyone before me has already stated why, so I'll keep it short.
I said it before: this guy has as much chance as Isaac (and yes, I think Isaac is a bit overestimated here), as in both come from games that were received very well and became cult hits, but didn't steamroll the competition with massive sales or popularity like other Nintendo franchises.
Both offer really interesting gameplay potential (although Isaac has more of it)
And lastly, both of them had a recent game come out that didn't quite sell well and that also set up their offspring as main characters instead of expanding on them.

So given this, while Sin & Punishment is a series that Sakurai clearly knows about, I am just not sure he'd choose to represent it (or Golden Sun) given how there are tons of more popular Nintendo franchises that have made a larger dent in recent years (Chibi Robo and Rhythm Heaven come to mind, for example.) I also feel that if he wanted to represent new franchises, he's more likely to go retro and bring back the likes of Takamaru or Mach Rider. Add to all of this what is likely to be a reduced roster size and so many characters receiving more demand and ... yea, likely but bordering on the unlikely side.

Want 80%
When I saw that Saki was an assist trophy, and without even knowing of his game, I was disappointed he wasn't playable. This guy just exudes potential and I'd be eager to play him in a heartbeat.

Medusa
Prediction - 15% People need to play Kid Icarus: Uprising to realize just how unlikely Medusa is. I'll give more specific reasons tomorrow, and raise my percentage a little bit more given that some here seem to still think she's the main villain in Kid Icarus.

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[PK_Wonder]

Double post, with someone in between them. Weird.

 

[Groose]

Saki's Chances: 40%
Sakurai has acknowledged his popularity and his fans. Saki was also still popular up until about a year ago. I wouldn't be surprised if he had ideas for Saki and decided to make him one of the first newcomers for this game.

Note that Kid Icarus borrowed a good number of ideas from Saki's game.

Saki Want: 40%
I'm not huge on his design at all, and I have no personal attachment to him. Still, Sin and Punishment is a series I've wanted to get into for a while and Saki looks like he could have an interesting, projectile spam based moveset.

Medusa Prediction: 9.43%
People seem to have changed their perspective entirely on her since last year. Still, I expect some votes.

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh x5 (almost theeeeeeere! :D )

You've got BOOST POWER! Goroh x5!

 

[Forde]

Saki Amamiya
Chances 30%
From what I've seen he has a fairly strong following, but the question is if it has Sakurai's attention.

Want 50%
I'm fairly indifferent about this character. He does have the potential to be very unique, but it really just comes down to the following, and if Sakurai thinks it can fit in.

Medusa: 15% I really don't see Medusa being a playable character, not much else to say about it though.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Erimir]

he is not unknown to Sakurai and people who pay attention to the Assist Trophies.

Obviously. I'm talking about the general public. Nintendo would like people to buy the game who aren't necessarily fanatics who can identify most of the characters nominated on this board. I've played basically every Metroid game. But I'm also not the only person they need to buy this game, so I'm not expecting Metroid to get way more stuff than in the past.

I like to read your analysis's each day, but it seems like game sales affect your personal bias. Game sales do count for something...

Every series represented in Brawl (and known to be in Smash 4) has multiple times as many sales as Sin and Punishment's two games. We'd be hitting a significant new low. Game sales show are in part a demonstration of the popularity of the character (although obviously character popularity varies, sales give an idea for where the ceiling and floor might be), how many people are familiar with them, and how much sales they can drive. So they obviously matter.

I find it hard to believe Wii Fit's 40+ million in sales (putting it as one of the highest selling series of all time on all platforms) or Animal Crossing's 20+ million had nothing to do with them both getting in the game, for example. But it's just one factor of many, of course. Some series with relatively lower sales have stronger fan bases than others. And there are the character design factors as well (uniqueness, how they fit in, how interesting they are, etc.). And series representation matters for series that already have reps. Once you've already completed the main cast, sales become a lot less important (although certainly nobody would be surprised if Mario got another slot).

So I didn't base my opinion purely on sales. It's just one factor. But the lower or higher the sales, the more I'm going to weight it. And with how low S&P's sales are, it has to drag him down significantly more than some of the other characters we've discussed. But the fact that he was an AT and Sakurai comments push him up. But not to the status of toss up or likely, in my book.

but you might have to look at exceptions like Saki.

]He's not an exception yet.

The lowest selling series with representatives are Kid Icarus (2.8+ million), Earthbound (~2 million), Ice Climbers (1.5 million) and ROB's games (1.3 million). You could call them the exceptions. Three of them were retro when they were included and were prominent during the NES years. Pit was on the TV show, Ice Climbers were part of an NES console bundle, R.O.B. was a kind of marketing gimmick. People were also kinda wanting a new Kid Icarus game, and got obviously Pit has returned to prominence with Uprising. S&P has never been prominent. S&P's closest analogue would be the Earthbound series... which nevertheless has four times as many sales and a stronger fan base.

It seems to me that among lower selling series, Earthbound, Golden Sun, Punch-Out and Xenoblade definitely all have stronger fan bases. Additionally, Xenoblade is getting a sequel and Punch-Out has a good chance of doing so as well considering how well the Wii game sold.

Anyway, I didn't **** all over Saki and say he has no chance. 20% is decent.

you should play his game. It would allow you to see more potential in him and make a better judgement
[...]
potential gadgets are used in his series too i.e. Laser guns, Lazer swords that have the ability to reflect projectiles, jet packs, hover boards, the ability to mutate, ect. ect.

I don't think mutating would be a big part of his move set. Maybe a Final Smash? Anyway, I didn't say he didn't have move set potential, I said it wasn't ginormous move set potential. He has enough to work with to have a move set without much trouble. But compared to Link there's really no comparison as to who truly has a cornucopia of options.

one could argue you are underanalyzing. That statement in bold could also be used to support him; suggesting that Sakurai when out of his way to include Saki because he liked the character and would have made him playable, however, was limited by constraints. Sakurai probably thought Saki was not worthy at that time to be playable, but now, for this game he is.

I didn't say that they didn't boost his chances. In fact, I explicitly said they did. I just was pointing out that the interpretation isn't unambiguously positive and there's a much more negative interpretation that's also very plausible. You should keep that in mind when considering how much to weigh those statements, instead of assuming that Sakurai must have only meant the most charitable interpretation.

But if he hadn't appeared as an AT, Saki would be relegated to the same level of attention that games/series like The Last Story or Chibi-Robo are getting. It definitely pushes him up way above them.

 

[Groose]

Post (will not repeat it all as to not stretch the page)

Very well reasoned out. You're actually making me we want to shave my score a little bit... but I'm going to hold steady.

 

[SmashShadow]

Wow, I'm really surprised that apparently people think Saki is as likely as getting Head (or Tails) on a coin toss.

Saki Amamiya
Chances: 27%
Again, I personally find him likely, but not THAT likely. Everyone before me has already stated why, so I'll keep it short.
I said it before: this guy has as much chance as Isaac (and yes, I think Isaac is a bit overestimated here), as in both come from games that were received very well and became cult hits, but didn't steamroll the competition with massive sales or popularity like other Nintendo franchises.
Both offer really interesting gameplay potential (although Isaac has more of it)
And lastly, both of them had a recent game come out that didn't quite sell well and that also set up their offspring as main characters instead of expanding on them.

So given this, while Sin & Punishment is a series that Sakurai clearly knows about, I am just not sure he'd choose to represent it (or Golden Sun) given how there are tons of more popular Nintendo franchises that have made a larger dent in recent years (Chibi Robo and Rhythm Heaven come to mind, for example.) I also feel that if he wanted to represent new franchises, he's more likely to go retro and bring back the likes of Takamaru or Mach Rider. Add to all of this what is likely to be a reduced roster size and so many characters receiving more demand and ... yea, likely but bordering on the unlikely side.

There are a few important factors that you forgot when comparing them.


Golden Sun's worst game(Dark Dawn) sold better than both S&P games combined.
Golden Sun's first 2 games sold more than Pikmin and Pikmin 2 respectively.
Isaac actually showed up in Dark Dawn
Golden Sun is a larger series
Golden Sun has Isaac in all games and the main protagonist of the first 2 giving him at least a 2:3 ratio whereas Saki is a 1:2.
Saki came from a Japanese-only game even if he's on VC now
Golden Sun is still more popular than S&P in Japan

 

[Glaciacott]

There are a few important factors that you forgot when comparing them.


Golden Sun's worst game(Dark Dawn) sold better than both S&P games combined.
Golden Sun's first 2 games sold more than Pikmin and Pikmin 2 respectively.
Isaac actually showed up in Dark Dawn
Golden Sun is a larger series
Golden Sun has Isaac in all games and the main protagonist of the first 2 giving him at least a 2:3 ratio whereas Saki is a 1:2.
Saki came from a Japanese-only game even if he's on VC now
Golden Sun is still more popular than S&P in Japan

That's true, perhaps it's too benevolent to consider Saki on the same level as Isaac in terms of probability.

 

[Groose]

Halfway through his day, Saki is on pace to break into the top ten in want... and the top twelve in chance.

 

[SmasherMaster]

Saki
Chance: 50% We already have the Villager and the Wii Fit Trainer in the game so new series reps are unlikeler than before.

Want: 60% Saki could have a unique moveset with his Cannon Sword.

Medusa Prediction: 25%
After Palutena, next Kid Icarus rep.

Nominations
N (Pokemon) x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Guys, 50% is not unlikely. 50% is like saying Sakurai has two names in a hat and one of them is Saki, and we know that's far from the case.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Yay! I actually won nominations!!!!!

Saki
Chance: 40%
Ehh... I don't see it happening but it is defiantly possible.

Want: .01%
Please no!!!! There are many more characters that are better for smash...

Prediction for Medusa: 9.59%

Nominations
Sylveon x10

 

[---]

Saki - 40%
Want - 100%

 

[Toxicroaker]

Saki: do not know who he is
Want: 0%

Medeusa: 6%

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[colder_than_ice]

Saki
Chance: 9% - I honestly can't believe that I'm the lowest vote so far. I don't think that Sin and Punishment is going to get a character in Smash, and if there is one, it should be Isa. Star Successor was both more successful and critically acclaimed than the original S & P.
Want: 64% - If I'm proven wrong, than I'll accept him with open arms.

Medusa Prediction: 9%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5.

 

[AfricanSanta]

Saki-
Chance- 20%- I don't really feel like Sin & Punishment will get a rep. Thge games never really sold well so I'd guess not many people will know who he is.
Want- 60%- That said, I'd like him to make Smash.

Medusa Prediction- 19%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2