Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Erimir]

Random note I forgot to include earlier...

Palutena and Medusa seem among the most likely to have significant reasons to change our opinions due to information we get from the Smash website about other characters. The main factors would be:

• We see Pit using his old Final Smash, showing Palutena is again part of Pit's move set. This obviously mean she's out. This would boost Medusa's chances, although I would also take it as suggesting that a new KI rep is unlikely
• We see Pit using a Final Smash that does not involve Palutena - this would greatly boost Palutena's chances to the point of presumed inclusion. Unfortunately, if Palutena is indeed a playable character, Sakurai will probably withhold information about Pit's Final Smash for a long time so as not to spoil it (while I could see him revealing it soon before Palutena is revealed, I doubt it)
• Since we're unlikely to see Pit's FS until after Palutena is revealed if she's in, then what would hint at her inclusion is that we get significant amounts of information about other characters' Final Smashes but little to none about Pit's. The more FS's revealed without Pit's being shown the more it boosts Palutena's chances since it increases the chances that Sakurai is purposely withholding Pit's. Currently, we've only seen (part of) Samus's FS, which is not very suggestive

Hopefully Sakurai wouldn't be mean enough to slow-roll Pit's Final Smash reveal even though Palutena won't be playable.

 

[Glaciacott]

Medusa
Chances 5%
I love Kid Icarus, all three games, and before Uprising I really found her interesting and thought she'd be the most likely next Kid Icarus rep.

However, Uprising changed everything, particularly since it's Sakurai's game. As a revival, it not only updates the mythos of the series but completely revamps it and creates a vast world around the little things we had before. It's almost more like it's a new series that pays homage to the old games than a revival. Medusa won't get in because of being in 3 games, because really, the Kid Icarus we'll see in Smash Bros is probably the one Sakurai made, and that's only one game.

And in that new game, the one created by Sakurai, Medusa was completely and utterly brushed aside as old news. Even with the things she did in the game, almost every other character completely outshines her. In terms of power, character development, everything. Palutena obviously is already a favorite, and for good reason. But even her aside, Dark Pit, Hades, Pyrrhon, Viridi, Magnus, Thanatos, and even Pandora all get more attention than Medusa. Arguably Phosphora, Gaol and Arlon had more of an impact on players as well.
And really, remembering pre-Uprising, the freaking Eggplant Wizard had a larger impact on players than Medusa and even made it to the tv show as Pit's villain.

Simply put, given everything in Uprising and even before, I do not see why Medusa merits a spot over almost every other KI character. Not only does Palutena deserve the second spot for the franchise and a third is unlikely, but even if it happened I don't see why Sakurai would add the villain he himself decided wasn't enough.

Want 0%
I've pretty much stated it above. I'd be annoyed to see her in this game over any other Kid Icarus character. I'd even prefer Dark Pit over her, since even as an evil clone of Pit he has more character and appeal.

Starfy
Prediction: 34%
Unrepresented series, popular ... seems like many consider him a possibility.

Nominations
x5 Porky Minch

 

[Yams]

Medusa:

Likelihood: 15% Other KI characters come first IMO.
Want: 10% Never liked her.

Starfy: 48%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Groose]

Hopefully Sakurai wouldn't be mean enough to slow-roll Pit's Final Smash reveal even though Palutena won't be playable.

That would be despicable indeed.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Medusa chance 5%: Palutena would come first and I dont think shes as likely as people say. In uprising you barely even fought medusa.
Want: 30% ehhh shes alright i guess but there are just so so so many characters to have and limited roster space
Starfy: 35%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[MattX20]

Medusa: 3%
Her chances are quite low compared to Palutena currently, and it doesn't help that she wasn't the main villain in Uprising like she was in the first game.

Want: 10%
Again, I'd rather see Palutena.

Starfy: 40%
One of the few AT characters from Brawl that has a shot of becoming playable, but he's competing with Little Mac and Isaac, who have been more heavily desired.

Want: 10%


Nominations:
Rayman X5

 

[Diddy Kong]

Medusa

Chance: 8%
Not much to be said. She was extremely hyped before Uprising. Basically seen as a 'shoo in' cause of her being a veteran villain, and a female. People love their female villains. Many wanted her before Palutena, cause Medusa had actual fighting powers, and would be more interessting to some. But soon as Uprising came, her weak role put people of, and Palutena stole the limelight for all Kid Icarus support.

Want: 35%
Seriously, despite never playing the games, I thought Medusa was quite interesting as a newcomer. The mytical Medusa could turn people into stone, which I thought would be a cool attack for a Special. Or maybe it was her design, and her being a sort of 'rival' to Ganondorf. Well yeah, it obviously ain't happening. Outside of maybe a Kid Icarus boss battle, but I'd think there'd be even better ideas for that no? Anyways, I still think she's sort of interesting, but Palutena is fine to honestly.

Impa x 5

 

[SmasherMaster]

Medusa
20% After Palutena, she is the next rep for Kid Icarus. Because she was not the main villian in Uprising, she feels less likely.
Want: 50% Meh. Good either way.

Starfy 43%

Nominations
N
Ridley
Sheik
Wreck It Ralph
Eevee

 

[cephalopod17]

Medusa's Chances: 15%
She is not important in Uprising and Palutena is more likely.

Medusa's Want: 20%
I prefer Palutena and prefer Hades as a villan. She's be ok though.

Starfy: 60%

Samurai Goroh x2
Robin (Fire Emblem) x3

 

[RVD_fan]

Chance - 7%
We're going to be tight for spots and there's a strong precedent for the secondary good character before the villain.

Want - 15%
She seems like a cool character and could bring a nice dose of unadulterated villainy, but there are other characters I'd like to see first

Starfy - 18.2%

Nomination: Ghirahim x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Medusa

Chance: 5% - If my understanding is correct, her priority is usurped by Palutena who played a larger role in the most recent installment of Kid Icarus. Now, I've not played Uprising (yet) but it would seem to me that based on general consensus KI is only likely to have two characters at most. In such case, Palutena seems better fit after Pit.

Want: 15% - I'd rather have Palutena. Based on...I dunno exactly. I guess it's just because I'm a bigger fan of heroes/heroines than villains/villainesses.

Starfy Prediction: 43% - People seem to praise his chances highly despite his somewhat humiliating AT appearance.

Nominations:
Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Medusa: 3%
Want: 40%

Starfy: 8%

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Likelihood: 2%
Medusa apparently has a really minor role in Uprising, though I've never gotten far enough into the game to encounter her. This is because...

Want: 3%
Kid Icarus: Uprising is nigh-unplayable if you're left-handed. This has caused me to not want any Kid Icarus reps other than Pit.

Starfy: 22.5%

Nominate:
Klonoa x3
Robin x2

 

[Starcutter]

Kid Icarus: Uprising is nigh-unplayable if you're left-handed. This has caused me to not want any Kid Icarus reps other than Pit.

wait, so bad controls for a game make you not want a character? alright.

 

[Forde]

Medusa

Chance: 15% Really could see other KI reps getting in before her.

Want: 10% Meh. All I really can say.

Prediction: Starfy 5%

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[Glaciacott]

I'm left-handed. Game works just fine.

Never really understood all the complaining about the Kid Icarus control scheme.

 

[Deleted member]

Kid Icarus: Uprising is nigh-unplayable if you're left-handed. This has caused me to not want any Kid Icarus reps other than Pit.

I will concede that the controls for Uprising are pretty bad, but that doesn't make the game unplayable. They just take time to get used to.

 

[SchAlternate]

Medusa
Chances 5%
I love Kid Icarus, all three games, and before Uprising I really found her interesting and thought she'd be the most likely next Kid Icarus rep.

However, Uprising changed everything, particularly since it's Sakurai's game. As a revival, it not only updates the mythos of the series but completely revamps it and creates a vast world around the little things we had before. It's almost more like it's a new series that pays homage to the old games than a revival. Medusa won't get in because of being in 3 games, because really, the Kid Icarus we'll see in Smash Bros is probably the one Sakurai made, and that's only one game.

And in that new game, the one created by Sakurai, Medusa was completely and utterly brushed aside as old news. Even with the things she did in the game, almost every other character completely outshines her. In terms of power, character development, everything. Palutena obviously is already a favorite, and for good reason. But even her aside, Dark Pit, Hades, Pyrrhon, Viridi, Magnus, Thanatos, and even Pandora all get more attention than Medusa. Arguably Phosphora, Gaol and Arlon had more of an impact on players as well.
And really, remembering pre-Uprising, the freaking Eggplant Wizard had a larger impact on players than Medusa and even made it to the tv show as Pit's villain.

Poor Medusa. Passing from being the main antagonist to a minor character...

 

[FalKoopa]

Medusa

Likelihood: 10%
She's behind Palutena in importance and popularity, and 3 KI reps is highly unlikely, though not impossible.

Want: 55%
Largely indifferent. But snakes instead of hair is interesting.

Starfy prediction: 19%
I believe people tend to underrate his chances.

Nominations: Isaac x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Medusa:

Likelihood: 7% - Behind Palutena, and Kid Icarus doesn't really warrant 3 reps.

Want: 10% - Meh, there are a lot of characters I'd rather give a spot.

Starfy Prediction: 20% - Some people are gonna be a bit optimistic on this one I feel.

Nominations:
5x Ridley

 

[Groose]

WARNING! THIS POST HAS SPOILERS! LOOK AWAY!

Medusa's Chances: 15%
This is actually a bit lower than what I said about her way back on Palutena's day, but I have soured a bit on Kid Icarus's chances. I highly doubt Kid Icarus will get three reps; I'm reasonably confident that there will be a second rep. As such, I don't really see Medusa getting in alongside Palutena... but I could still see her get in over Palutena.

Medusa was the main enemy of the first title in the series, in which Palutena was a mere damsel in distress. In Uprising, she proved to be the main antagonist for the first half of the game. Unlike the second half of the game (which jumped around, including alien invasions, atomic bombs, and chaos itself), the first half of the game was pretty much entirely focused on defeating Medusa. Additionally, she did show up again near the end. I'd say she is a lot more important than you're giving credit for.

Of course, she faces Palutena for competition. The fact that the series is known as Palutena's Mirror in Japan and Palutena was used more heavily to promote it does bode ill for Medusa. Even so, Medusa is definitely more likely than Hades and probably even more likely than Magnus.

Medusa Want: 55%
I'd prefer to have either Hades or Palutena. But I'll still be happy about ANY second Kid Icarus rep... bar only Dark Pit. Heck, I'd even welcome him if he weren't a clone.

Starfy Prediction: 18.45%
Eh... some will cite his Japanese popularity and his assist trophy status. Others will cite his lack of worldwide presence and the... lameness... of his assist trophy. I don't think he'll be nearly as popular as other new series representatives, such as Saki and Dillon.

YOU"VE GOT BOOST POWER! Samurai Goroh x5!

I'm left-handed. Game works just fine. Never really understood all the complaining about the Kid Icarus control scheme.

I will concede that the controls for Uprising are pretty bad, but that doesn't make the game unplayable. They just take time to get used to.

In my review of Kid Icarus: Uprising, I noted that it took an hour or two to adapt to the controls... after which time they actually became quite instinctual. I actually think the game controls better than some of the other early 3DS titles (Metal Gear, Star Fox). I do concede that vehicles handle awfully, but that's more of a balancing measure than a bad control issue.

Although I do warn that I cannot speak for left-handers, I dismiss control issues entirely in my review. I gave the game a 9.75, and the points I took off for were NOT for controls.

 

[Groose]

Medusa (Kid Icarus)​

11.85% chance​

28.26% want​

​

Poor Medusa. No matter what she does, it seems like Palutena thwarts her efforts at every step. Palutena was the main reason Medusa scored so poorly in both categories. Oh well... there's always the renoms, right?​

​

Today we will be rating a star. But is this star enough of an all-star to compete? He's turned in many a game in Japan, but only one in the west. Please leave your chance and want on Stafy... er, I mean Starfy today.​

​

Finally, please predict how Karate Joe of Rhythm Heaven fame will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Brawler610, Good Guy Giygas, and Opossum. Enjoy the extra five.​

​

Oh, and before I go, I can announce that Paper Mario has once again been added to the nominations list. This is a big one for me; it means I've been helping run the game for thirty days now. ​

 

[MargnetMan23]

Chance: 38% ccould go either way tbh he has a lot going for him but it is possbile that it won't be enough to get him a spot in this limited roster :/ (I don't know how many slots that would be but I do think it's going to be more then brawl with a somewhat small amount of cuts)
Want: 90% I support this character
Karate Joe: Wait who? Well I'm not too familiar with this character at all but I guess he's the main character from an IP that would be lucky to get Hanenbow treatment 11.4%
Mr. G&W x5

 

[Groose]

Chance: 38% ccould go either way tbh he has a lot going for him but it is possbile that it won't be enough to get him a spot in this limited roster :/ (I don't know how many slots that would be but I do think it's going to be more then brawl with a somewhat small amount of cuts)
Want: 90% I support this character
Karate Joe: Wait who? Well I'm not too familiar with this character at all but I guess he's the main character from an IP that would be lucky to get Hanenbow treatment 11.4%
Mr. G&W x5

Rhythm Heaven is pretty big in Japan. It's just starting to catch on here, though. I do suggest you look it up; it's actually a pretty neat franchise.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Starfy: 35%
Want: 50%
Karate Joe: 15%
Ridley x 3
Lucas x 2

 

[Starcutter]

Starfy: 57% his games are kinda popular in japan, I think.

Want: 45% kinda alright.


Karate Joe: 44.55% I think He's got a half decent chance. Rhythm heaven is also a good game.

Noms:

x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Stafi/Stafy/Starfy/Starfish Dude:
A character for which I've heard many names, and I may write Stafi occasionally given that's how I knew him back in the days of DnS 2.
In the west he only had one game, and probably the worst of the 5 (at least the most disappointing one), but in Japan he's a great character and one I love!
Heck he even has his own Theme Song! (which Groose missed in the music section!)

Chance: 23%
WHAT?! So yeah, he's an awesome character, but he's a starfish, who spins. He's awesome, and in his watery games it's not just enough, but a great move set, but his on land play has always been a touch lacking in his own games, let alone if he were in brawl. He's not weak by any stretch of the imagination, but he's still a sea creature, and not a very good fit for smash bros. I think he thus makes a better assist trophy. That said, he basically NEEDs a stage on the 3DS version, or I will be peeved.

Want: 50%
I love Starfy, and he was one of my biggest wants in Brawl, but since then I've realised that the underwater sections are the parts of Stafi I like the most, and that smash bros is not underwater! He'd be a good addition character wise, and I'd certainly play him, but I'd not be surprised or insulted by him not being playable. Another thing, while I'd like him as another source of water damage for Pokémon trainer to Worry about, it's sad that such a thing is a notable part of my want for a character I already admit to loving.. That said I would like his AT to be a bit more dangerous than it currently is, 'cos, really? He's not that pathetic...


Karate Joe: 13%
Rhythm Paradise (I'm European remember) is awesome, and should get some recognition (ATs, a stage etc.), and may even warrant a character, but I don't think Karate Joe is it. I believe fans of the series would be happier with the girl mascot person or Marshall (and Miss Ribbon for alt skin), while Karate Joe is chosen by smash fans first to rep a popular series; something I think would put off Rhythm fans. That said this is a smash community, so likely there'll be enough people who think that way. That said I feel the series isn't too well known in the west, so will garner low marks, and the character's little known to even people who have plaid the games passingly.


Slime*5
(I'm Slurp-ainly getting closer to the plop; slime gonna hafta choose a new character to vote for!)


EDIT: Question for Groose:
Can I make a vague nomination? Particularly 'Fatal Frame Protagonist', 'cos really, they're fairly interchangeable to the average consumer, it's the camera they wield that's iconic.

 

[Opossum]

Starfy time!

Likelihood: 45%

I think he has a lot going for him. The only question is whether or not Sakurai wants to add tons of new series this time, as I see both Little Mac and Isaac as having priority over him.

Want: 100%
He's awesome.

Prediction for Karate Joe: 9.89%

Ooooh, I won nom-noms? Cool.

x10 Falco

 

[Xenigma]

Starfy - 25%
Another character I admittedly know little about, but off the bat he's got two big things going for him: fan demand in Japan, and an assist trophy in Brawl. Those alone should push him well above many potential newcomers, and should make him plausible enough that a 1 in 4 chance seems fair. The one big issue I have with him, aside from moveset potential (which I'll ignore since I've never played the games) is that he's a pretty Japan-exclusive character. With only one international release, and that game seeing only moderate success, I feel like Starfy ends up pushed back in terms of priority when he could just as easily be made an assist trophy again. Whether or not that game is viewed as a success by Nintendo ought to be the big factor that decides if Starfy deserves a chance or not.
Want - 10% - Some rating just for pure adorableness and variety, but I can't say I'm excited about a character I know little about.

Karate Joe Prediction - 11.85%
So apparently 15% for random folk is too high. Instead, let's just rip off Medusa's rating. Yet another character with remote prospects yet some notable fans here.

Nominations
Sonic x5

 

[SpaceJell0]

Starfy Chance: 55% Starfy has had a game released in North America so he isn't as obscure, Sakurai might want to fix the horrible representation of Starfy in the assist trophy, and he's unique visually and moveset wise! But...other characters admittedly have higher priority

Starfy Want: 100% One of my top 5 most wanted newcomers! Just try out his North American game and you'll see why People need to give him more credit and forget the first impressions the assist trophy did

Karate Joe Prediction: 11% He is from a Japanese-popular series but hardly anyone knows him outside of Japan. Other characters might have higher priority over him too.

Nominations: x5 Chibi-Robo

 

[Deleted member]

Starfy
Chances: 38%
Starfy does have a notable fanbase that would help his chances of becoming a playable character. That and he was an Assist Trophy in Brawl which does help his chances slightly, but it could also hurt him since he could be easily made into an Assist Trophy again. It all comes down to the decision of Sakurai and Nintendo if Starfy is a worthy addition to the roster. However, I don't think he will be on the high priority list of characters. Though, Starfy does have a shot.
Want: 55%
Starfy, Goroh, Little Mac, Saki, and Issac are the only Assist Trophies that I see become fighters. Would I like to see Starfy on the roster? Yeah. There is something appealing to me about a fight between Kirby and Starfy... maybe even a fight between Starfy and Wario. I also do see some potential in Starfy.
Karate Joe Prediction: 9.6%
Umm... I don't really know how well he would do? I bet there are be better Rhythm Heaven reps than him.

Oh wow! I can't believe I won 5 extra nominations!
Nominations: Sonic 10x

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chances: 35%
Want: 30%
Karate Joe prediction: 20%
Skull Kid X5

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Chances: 20%
Want:35%
Karate Joe Prediciton: 10%
Noms
Robinx4
Bombermanx1

 

[DarkKry4]

Starfy Chance: 1% hes a tiny as hell and he has no moveset potential. I think thats why he will stay an Assist Trophy (even as a trophy hes kinda useless)

Starfy Want: 0.1% I hate this horrible piece of sh**!

Karate Joe: 3% who the hell is he again?

Nom: x5 Duck Hunt Dog (Duck Hunt)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Starfy:

Likelihood: 15% - Sakurai has acknowledged his existance, but I don't see him having much of a chance really

Want: 10% - Ehhh... What can he do besides spin around?

Karate Joe: 7%

Nominations:
5x Ridley - And with that Ridley is on 100 votes!

 

[SpaceJell0]

Oh dear, the ignorance of potential movesets is starting to show...

 

[colder_than_ice]

Starfy
Chance: 29% - He has popularity in some places. He is one of the very few "recurring" lead protagonists in an Nintendo franchise who still hasn't been playable in Smash.
Want: 53% - I can live with him; I can live without him.

Knuckle Joe Prediction: 16%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[Opossum]

Starfy Chance: 1% hes a tiny as hell and he has no moveset potential. I think thats why he will stay an Assist Trophy (even as a trophy hes kinda useless)

Starfy Want: 0.1% I hate this horrible piece of sh**!

Karate Joe: 3% who the hell is he again?

Nom: x5 Duck Hunt Dog (Duck Hunt)

So much ignorance in one post...I remember SSBF had a rule against using "no moveset potential" as an argument. Does that still hold true, Groose?

 

[SpaceJell0]

So much ignorance in one post...I remember SSBF had a rule against using "no moveset potential" as an argument. Does that still hold true, Groose?

I agree, I don't think this post is serious either

 

[Groose]

Stafi/Stafy/Starfy/Starfish Dude:
A character for which I've heard many names, and I may write Stafi occasionally given that's how I knew him back in the days of DnS 2.
In the west he only had one game, and probably the worst of the 5 (at least the most disappointing one), but in Japan he's a great character and one I love!
Heck he even has his own Theme Song! (which Groose missed in the music section!)

EDIT: Question for Groose:
Can I make a vague nomination? Particularly 'Fatal Frame Protagonist', 'cos really, they're fairly interchangeable to the average consumer, it's the camera they wield that's iconic.

Because I've only played the DS one that was brought to North America, I only took music from there. But hey, if you have any more suggestions for music, I'll add them.

As for a Fatal Frame protagonist... for now, just use your common sense. Would the majority of people be scratching their heads and giving double 0's? If so, it's probably best to wait.

So much ignorance in one post...I remember SSBF had a rule against using "no moveset potential" as an argument. Does that still hold true, Groose?

SSBF removed that rule when he made this version of the game, I believe. Either that or something else happened somewhere along the lines, as it's currently not on the books. Allow me to further check into the matter.

I agree, I don't think this post is serious either

DarkKry is rather infamous on these boards for going to support threads and arguing against the characters. He/she isn't known for tact, but rather brutal honesty. So while the post is definitely heavily biased and debatedly even ignorant, it is serious.

The only time I've ever removed outliers from the game are on Owain's day and Sandbag's day. Owain had ftwo or three people with "Owain" in their name come and give him a 100% in chance; someone also gave Sandbag a 90%, a score indicative that they were trolling.

However, on most days, the outliers of haters and the outliers of die-hard supporters even things out. That should be the case today.