Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[ZecaOMestre]

Vaati

Likelihood: 8% - Yeah, him being on the game would depend on Too Link being, and he would also have to compete with Toon Zelda/Tetra... So, I don't think he will be a playable character

Want: 30% - Don't really care, but I would much rather see other Zelda characters

Saki: 42%

Nominations:
Primid x4
Wolf x1

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Vaati chance=4%

Vaati want=70%

I haven't played his games, but I am a huge Zelda fan, and I love wind abilities.

Saki prediction=18%

Nomination=5xSkull Kid

 

[jaytalks]

Vaati's likelihood: 5%. By virtue of being a Zelda character he has better chances of being a character than third parties. But there are a few things against him. He was created in the capcom developed games, and hasn't reappeared in a while. And I don't think we will get more than one villain per series (Wario reps his own series).
Vaati want: 10%. There are other Zelda reps I would want first. And I don't have any desire to play as him based on his appearances. He isn't even my second or third favorite Zelda villain.

Saki's chance: 37.56%. Many will state that Saki missed his chance with Brawl. I don't think that the case.
Nominations:
Karate Joe x5

 

[Primid]

VAATI

Likelihood: 3% Since people like me are still unsure of Toon Link returning, Vaati's chances seem even lower and it would be odd if Vaati was there without Toon Link. Vaati also doesn't look like the go-to Zelda rep either.
Want: 5% I don't play LoZ, but other Zelda suggestions like Ghirahim, Skull Kid, and Midna are more appealing to me.

Saki Prediction: 53%
Nominations: Porky x10

 

[Erimir]

Vaati

Popularity: He's not super popular among Smash fans here (ranking below characters like Black Shadow, Takamaru and Simon Belmont on Shortie's poll) and he didn't even warrant a mention in ChronoBound's explorations of Japanese Smash fans. I dunno how popular he is among the general public or Zelda fans... but given that his only appearance in a major Zelda game (Four Swords is kind of a side thing IMO) was The Minish Cap, he's probably not super well-known.

Relevancy: He has three appearances. But two of them were Four Swords games, which I think should not really be considered as important as a main game. Still, just being the main antagonist of The Minish Cap would already put him among the most important Zelda characters, and the Four Swords appearances certainly help.

Design: He has a number of moves. One problem is that his normal appearance "Sorceror Vaati" is not one that he ever uses while fighting. But he could use moves from his "Vaati Reborn" form anyway. He might be able to use some eyeball form moves too. His Final Smash would obviously be to turn into the eyeball form and have a bunch of whirlwinds or something.

Roster and Competition: Well, Sakurai has said he hasn't decided on cutting anybody yet, so that means Toon Link is likely to return or planned to return. There may or may not be a fifth slot for Zelda. But we know that Toon Zelda was planned in the past, which makes it seem less likely that Vaati is seen as a natural choice. True, Toon Zelda would have some clone aspects, but making a full Toon Zelda/Toon Sheik (or Tetra) would be a lot of work, even considering that there's some cloning going on. There are also other characters like Tingle that seem more likely. Ghirahim is more wanted among both US and Japanese Smash fans. There's also Midna (probably with Wolf Link). And then there's the outside chance that miscellaneous other characters like Impa, Skull Kid, Masked Link and the like could make it in. Pretty strong competition.

Vaati chances: 2.5%
I think Toon Zelda (with or without Tetra) is the most likely, given the evidence of the Forbidden Seven and she's been in more games. Tingle is more recurring and has his own games. Ghirahim is from the latest game and seems well-received and is more desired by Smash fans at this point. Midna was also well-received and is the titular character of the best-selling Zelda game (excluding remakes and VC re-releases) and is wanted almost as much as Vaati among Smash boards users.

Vaati want: 25%
I never did get to play Four Swords on the GBA because I had no one to play with But since I was able to play the 25th Anniversary edition of Four Swords by myself (that was an awesome freebie!), I've beaten all of Vaati's games. But frankly, I don't find him that cool or interesting of a character. And he has a kinda emo look that I don't like. I'd rather see Tetra, Midna, Ghirahim or even Impa or Tingle before Vaati. Nevertheless, he has solid move set potential and could be fun to play as.

Saki prediction: 30%
Saki's not highly wanted in the US or Japan, and his games are a little obscure (but he did get an AT). He does have that new series smell though (new to Smash, that is), so he'll do relatively well.

Nominations:
Mike Jones x5

Saki Prediction: 25% I dunno how people will react but my guess is the ignorance of the existence of Saki will bring the percent down a knotch

But isn't that in itself a reason to rate him less highly?

 

[Sid-cada]

Vaati

Chance - 15% - If we were to get a second villain from Zelda, he would be the most obvious choice (assuming we wouldn't get Toon Ganondorf). However, I'm doubting a Zelda newcomer in the first place, and he is dependent on Toon Link's inclusion.

Want - 65% - To be honest, I think that the "Realistic" Zelda games have a fine amount of representation, and I would expand on the Toon Games. I think a Wind Mage would be interesting, but Tetra would be higher priority.


Saki Prediction - 39% - He has okay-ish chances, but not all that great. I don't think he will be exceeding 50%.

Nominations
Starfy X2
Lip X2
Donbe and Hikari X1

 

[Yams]

Vaati:

Likelihood: 17% I feel like other characters come before him.
Want: 30% Again, never been a fan, but he could have a cool moveset.

Saki: 35%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Vaati
Likelihood: 11% Not too sure about this one, but then again I'd never even heard of him before...
Want: 5% Again, I don't know anything about him...I don't know though, I guess I'd be fine if he replaced Toon Link.

Saki: 38% Out of the assist trophies, Isaac, Little Mac, and Saki have the best chance of becoming playable.

Nominations:
Lucas x5
Porky Minch x5

 

[Gam3rALO]

Vaati:
Chance: 5%
The most likely newcomer for Zelda will be Tetra, but having another rep for Zelda seems slight.

Want: 30%
Seems pretty cool...

Prediction for Saki: 44.56%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Vaati:
chance2%: He just isnt popular enough
Want 30%: I would much rather have skull kid
Saki 44%
Nominations
Bomberman x5

 

[Glaciacott]

Vaati

Chance: 6%. I admit, pre-Brawl I thought this guy was pretty likely, before the idea of Toon Link even came up and it was certain Young Link would be gone. He was a great villain in Minish Cap and in that game he even got a more humanoid form people could get behind. Also, Zelda timeline considered, he seemed like he'd round up the Zelda cast rather well.
But he didn't make it, and attention was given to Toon Link. A couple of years later, what made him special has simply evaporated. While the timeline was revealed and it shows just how recurring he is in the universe, the fact is that he is just much less likely now to gain Sakurai's attention, especially since nothing has been done with him since Minish Cap (that I know of.)
Add to this the fact that the Zelda cast feels like one of the most complete ones in Smash (along with Mario and Pokemon), and I see it as a pretty hairy situation for Vaati.

Want: 40%. I wanted him more before, now I'm a bit more indifferent so I figured a want of 50% was a given. But then ... to be honest, I'd prefer if the last Zelda spot went to someone more fabulous (Ghirahim) or someone more Groose. So I took it down a notch to 40%

Saki Amamiya
Prediction: 21%
Personally, I find him in the same boat as Isaac, but I think a lot of people won't care for Sin and Punishment at all and that will lower his score considerably

Nominations:
x5 Porky Minch (Glad I'm not the only one nominating him this time. You're a Good Guy Giygas.)

 

[Groose]

Vaati is a guy
...Right? I'm like 94% certain Vaati is male.

I'm 100% certain.

Are you seriously implying that Vaati would be a Link clone? (0_0);

I may not want Vaati... but even I see that he clearly isn't a Link clone.

He's actually a floating eyeball.

You have an interesting concept of heroism...

According to the philosophy of one famous person, Vaati is indeed a hero:

To put it simply, ambition... a hero must have the drive and determination to face any challenge head on!

Vaati
Popularity: He's not super popular among Smash fans here (ranking below characters like Black Shadow, Takamaru and Simon Belmont on Shortie's poll) and he didn't even warrant a mention in ChronoBound's explorations of Japanese Smash fans. I dunno how popular he is among the general public or Zelda fans... but given that his only appearance in a major Zelda game (Four Swords is kind of a side thing IMO) was The Minish Cap, he's probably not super well-known.

Vaati is one of the most cosplayed Zelda characters... really, he only ranks behind Link and Zelda and maybe Ganondorf in the sheer number of costumes I've seen.

Vaati also stars in a lot of fanfiction and fanart. Eh... most of the stuff he's in is pretty bad, even for fanworks, but he is a frequently recurring character.[/quote]

 

[SchAlternate]

To put it simply, ambition... a hero must have the drive and determination to face any challenge head on!​

Brawl in the Family reference for the win.

 

[Groose]

Brawl in the Family reference for the win.

I was wondering who would catch on...
You, and the majority of the forum, have excellent taste.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Vaati
Chance: 4% - There isn't a very big window of opportunity for this three-time Zelda villain who will probably never appear in another Zelda game.
Want: 29% - I wouldn't be happy, but I'd probably warm up to him.

Saki prediction: 18%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[Erimir]

Vaati is one of the most cosplayed Zelda characters... really, he only ranks behind Link and Zelda and maybe Ganondorf in the sheer number of costumes I've seen.

Vaati also stars in a lot of fanfiction and fanart. Eh... most of the stuff he's in is pretty bad, even for fanworks, but he is a frequently recurring character.

So, decently popular among Zelda fans... but more popular than Toon Link, Tetra, Midna, Tingle, Ghirahim? (Taking into account both Western and Japanese fandoms)

But I meant I dunno how well-known he is among people who aren't Zelda fanatics. If you didn't play Minish Cap and had no interest in Four Swords (which describes a lot of people who have played the console Zeldas, I think) then...

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Vaati

Chances - 45%

Want - 100% Yes please. I'm dying for another recurring villain from teh Zelda series


Saki - 32%

 

[AfricanSanta]

Vatti
Chance- 10%- He's more relevant than other non-Ganondorf villains since he was in multiple games, But I doubt another Zelda rep in the first place.
Want- 65%- He's one of my favorite Zelda characters.

Saki prediction- 23%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I HAVE RETURNED!!!

Vaati: 3%

He missed his chance. His support plumetted after Brawl. He ain't getting in.

Want: 95%

I was a HUGE Vaati supporter back in the day. I love the game and I hope he appears again!

Saki Prediction: 22%

He's got a decent shot.

Nominations:
Sonic
Snake
Lucas
Falco
Mr. Game & Watch

 

[SmashShadow]

Vaati: 11%
+ 3 time villain
+ Toon Link already being in brawl
+ Plenty of moveset potential from his 5(?) boss battles.
- Hasn't been in a game since 2004
- Lots of competition
- Toon Link uncertainty
- uncertainty of a new Zelda rep
- Lost quite a bit of popularity after brawl
+/- New Zelda game is a handheld game so I wouldn't be surprised if he was in it.

Want: 80%
My most wanted Zelda character. There's no way he's going to be a clone and he's not another toon version of someone we already have.

Saki: 21%

2x impa
3x sonic

 

[BlitznBurst]

Oh wow, I actually got a prediction right lol

Vaati chances: 15%. He's a recurring villain in the Zelda franchise, and could have some unique abilities, but not incredibly popular and not really all that notable.
Want: 30%.

Saki prediction: 20%.

Ganon X10, just to put him on the charts

 

[Groose]

So, decently popular among Zelda fans... but more popular than Toon Link, Tetra, Midna, Tingle, Ghirahim? (Taking into account both Western and Japanese fandoms)

But I meant I dunno how well-known he is among people who aren't Zelda fanatics. If you didn't play Minish Cap and had no interest in Four Swords (which describes a lot of people who have played the console Zeldas, I think) then...

When one creates a Zelda fanwork, they usually pick a game to base it upon.Your most common selections are usually Ocarina of Time (#classic), Twilight Princess (#Midna), Skyward Sword (#recency), and Four Swords. I have no idea what draws people to Four Swords and Vaati... but it seems to happen a lot. Generally, I tend to avoid the Four Swords fanwork; making a generalization, it's usually a lower quality than the other stuff.

Now, comparing Vaati to another character is a bit tricky. He's not as prominent as Ghirahim, but Ghirahim has recency on his side. You see his name about as often as you see Midna's nowadays... but generally everyone sees Midna as a more developed character. Tetra seems to be on a bit of a hiatus nowadays; while she still is popular, Wind Waker isn't as "classic" as Ocarina or as "recent" as Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword.

Vaati is especially prominent among cosplayers, from my experiences. I'm one of the only Groose cosplayers out there, but you see a LOT of Vaati. Ghirahim suffers in this department... but that may be due to the... difficult... nature of cosplaying him.

And as for Tingle... he's Tingle. I think I'm his only fan.

Vaati's Chances: 5%

Vaati: 50%
Vaati is the second most recurring villain in the Zelda franchise. It's pretty much between him, Tingle, and maybe Beast Ganon. I'm pretty sure we'll see someone new from Zelda, and I don't think that we'll see Tingle. Vaati is my frontrunner here.

Ah... how times have changed, Groosey. I once thought that that he was the most likely Zelda newcomer. Since that time... he's done absolutely nothing. New characters and old ones have once again re-entered the scene. Now he faces competition from Ghirahim, Tetra, roster-limatations, and his old enemy, Tingle.

I bet on him before. I'm not doing it again.

Vaati Want: 10%
I've never been a fan. Ganondorf is my favorite villain of all-time... and try as he might, Vaati just couldn't live up to such high expectations. He always just seemed like a Ganondorf wannabe, complete with a transformation into a beast form.

My favorite Zelda villains (other than Ganondorf) are the ones who don't try to live up to Ganon... the ones who go in completely different directions. The Skull Kid and Majora were great because of their story and mystery; Ghirahim was great because he screamed, "I'm the ANTI-GANON!" I'd much rather have either of them, or Tingle, or a decloned Ganondorf, or Beast Ganon, or Mask Link, or Midna... you kind of get my point, right?

Saki Prediction: 34.53%
He was a popular pick a year ago. But that was a different forum and a different time; he's not nearly as popular in the here and now.

Medusa x5!
Those who lurk in the darkness must be made to face the LIGHT!

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE ​

 

[Groose]

Vaati (Legend of Zelda)
9.15% chance
34.30% want

Vaati's want percentage proves that he is more than just a floating eyeball. Unfortunately, his chance percentage fell just shy of recent competitors Simon Belmont and Masked Man. Oh well... Vaati is known for making comebacks, so maybe he will be able to do so when he is eligible again in thirty days.

Today will will be Saki Amamiya, main protagonist of the Sin and Punishment series. This series was previously Japan-only before it arrived here on Virtual Console and received a new entry, named Star Successor. Please leave your chance and want on Saki today.

Tomorrow, the Goddess of Darkness Medusa shall face the light. A big name only a year ago, Medusa has been replaced on many a roster prediction by Palutena. Please predict how Medusa (Kid Icarus) will perform in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations, like those won by Smasher101, Good Guy Giygas, and Gam3rALO.

Finally, it is my pleasure to announce that current chance percentage champion Little Mac has been added to the nominations list once more.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Saki chances: 50.00
I've never played Sin and Punishment but Sski was a cool assist trophy and seems like he would have a good move set.

Saki want: 50%
Not to sure what he's about, but I'm curious. (Saki is a male, right?)

Medusa prediction: 19%

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Saki: 24%
Other than being an assist trophy, his last appearance was in the year 2000 and his son is now the next protagonist. Tie this in with the fact that it's a 2 game series and not a very prominent series, he's not as likely as some may think.

Want: 60%
He okay but the extent that I know about him is from brawl.

Medusa: 20%

3x Sonic
2x Impa

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Saki: 30%
Want: 65%
Medusa: 15%
Nomiante:
Lucas x 2
Ridley x 3

 

[SpaceJell0]

Saki: 24%
Other than being an assist trophy, his last appearance was in the year 2000 and his son is now the next protagonist. Tie this in with the fact that it's a 2 game series and not a very prominent series, he's not as likely as some may think.

Want: 60%
He okay but the extent that I know about him is from brawl.

Medusa: 20%

3x Sonic
2x Impa

He is iconic to the franchise you derp

Anywho
Saki Chance: 50% It all really depends on whether Sakurai thinks Sin and Punishment is important enough, but it's still a pretty popular franchise and Saki was an AT in Brawl

Saki Want: 70% Why not? I've played 2 Sin and Punishments before and he seems pretty diverse!

Medusa Prediction: The runner of Rate Their Chances OBVIOUSLY had nothing to do with this anyways 10% Palutena is more likely and if not, then Dark Pit will get a palette swap. This is as far as I see Uprising getting represented

Edit: Whoops! I forgot my Nomz: x5 Starfy

 

[XenothiumX]

Saki
Likelihood: 85%
Pros:

• He was an Assist Trophy in Brawl
• Sakurai said " He rivals just about any main character. There were many requests from users for his inclusion, and he IS pretty cool" and "H-he has absolutely no problem fitting in!"
• Kid Icarus Borrowed many Ideas from Sin & Punishment.
• His game entered the VC.
• A Sequel to his game Sin & Punishment: Star Successor came out after Brawl.
• He represents a new series

Cons:

• He isn't well recognized of and doesn't seem to have much of a demand ( Although I would assume his demand is higher in Japan )
• Isa thretens his spot as the Rep for S&P
• S&P did mediocre in sales

Over all Saki sits at a pretty good position. I do think Saki's got the advantage over Isa since he is the main character from the first game and more iconic especially since he got to be an AT. Sakurai has shown a personal bias towards this character so I don't know if the opinions of other people affects his inclusion... I mean isn't that how his Ice Climbers got in.

Want:100%
He obvioustly is one of my most wanted characters, I mean the guy has a LAZER SWORD/GUN! how cool is that! I absolutely love his game!

Medusa
Pediction: 10%

Nominations:
Ridley x1
Majora's Mask Link x2
Krystal x2

 

[Groose]

Medusa Prediction: The runner of Rate Their Chances OBVIOUSLY had nothing to do with this anyways 10% Palutena is more likely and if not, then Dark Pit will get a palette swap. This is as far as I see Uprising getting represented

Hey, hey, HEY! For once, it's not all my fault. I've only been nominating Medusa for the last ten days or so. The majority of the Medusa nominations came from other people.

But... once again, I'm left to wonder about who to nominate. I would go Slime or Goroh, but they're probably going to be in sometime this week anyway... hmm. This is quite a puzzling situation.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I think the most fitting pieces for saki would be:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy17yEBvSh0
The Fan Favourite

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RirrfF0bORA
Final Boss

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwJhyMcHMTU
And a track named after him, even if it's not the best in SS.


Saki:

Chance: 40%
I think he or his successor have a really high chance of getting into brawl, and while I think Saki would be the more popular choice I can see him staying an assist trophy because his son can do much the same job, and has a jetpack! That said I think they each have a pretty even chance of getting character status, so both get a 40% from me. The 20% extra is there really because the series is pretty small, and while fantastic and having a strong fan basis, enough to get an assist trophy into brawl in fact, I imagine him being low priority on the character list, and thus potentially getting left out if time runs short. That said I'd be surprised if an S&P rep isn't on the roster consideration list.. part of me actually wonders if Saki was in brawl but got switched to AT at some point, especially with the 'feeling like a character' (I can't remember exact wording) comment on dojo.

Want: 45%
As I said earlier, I think Isa has a more interesting move potential, but not by much, and really either character would be awesome, so he gets the slightly lower split of the want percentage.


Medusa: 11%
Heroes tend to have higher priority than villians, and I don't see KI getting 3 characters given Sakurai's dislike of over representing his own games. That said if issues arise with Palutena then Medusa could jump the normal priority; that said, the chances are very low.


Slime*5
(Slime nearly out of puns)

 

[SchAlternate]

Saki
Likelihood: 50% - He's somewhat obscure, but I bet he has ginormous moveset potential.
Want: 90% - I have no idea who he is, or what he's all about, but come on, he has a mother****ing LASER GUN SWORD! You can't just say no to that, right?

Medusa
Prediction: 25% 15% - Not likely, but tons of fan support.

Nominations:
Lip x3
Genesect x2

 

[Deleted member]

Hahaha. Fox's SSB4 artwork is in a very similar pose to Saki's Brawl artwork. I just noticed that!

Saki
Chances: 47%
If there are any Assist Trophy characters that are most likely to become fighters, it's Little Mac, Goroh, Issac, and Saki in my eyes. While Sin & Punishment isn't very popular, the character himself is getting a substantial amount of demand and he does fit in nicely with the roster; Sakurai noted this on Saki's Assist Trophy page on Brawl's website:
http://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/items/assist/assist12.html
I could also see Saki and the Sin & Punishment series drawing inspiration for Sakurai in Kid Icarus: Uprising where Pit does have weapons that shoot out long ranged projectiles and can be used for melee combat much like Saki's weapon. Taking that into consideration, I do believe he has good chances. I don't think the protagonists in the sequel will affect his chances tremendously.
Want: 76%
I haven't really played Sin & Punishment, but seeing what he could do in Brawl is enough for me to see how he could have moveset potential. He's a pretty unique character that I would like to see make a playable appearance.
Medusa Prediction: 11.6%
Erm. Maybe I am overestimating. MAYBE. However, it's hard to predict because we all know that Medusa won't be playable unless Palutena is.
Nominations: Sonic 5x

 

[SmashShadow]

He is iconic to the franchise you derp

Any main character in a series with 2 games would be considered iconic to their franchise you derp.

 

[Smasher 101]

Saki's chances: 50%
Want: 80%

Medusa: 9%

Samurai Goroh x10

Goroh's turn will be up soon, looks like I better start thinking about who to nominate next.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Saki Chances
45%: He was an assist trophy in brawl, but some may argue that he missed his chance
want 55%: Never played a sin & punishment game, but i always like when new series are represented.

Medusa 8%

Nominations
Bomberman x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Saki
Chance: 49%
Out of all the Assist Trophies aside from Isaac I feel like Saki has the best chance of becoming playable. Sin and Punishment is a cult hit, much like Earthbound.

Want: 43%
Saki's pretty cool, but I don't know enough about Sin and Punishment to get super excited about his appearence.

Medusa prediction: 5%
Need Palutena confirmation really first and her role in the recent game may go against her...maybe.

Nomination:
Kamek X 3
Meowth X 2

 

[Opossum]

Saki time!

Likelihood: 45%

Much less likely than Isaac, Shulk, and even Starfy in my opinion, but has Sakurai bias going for him. It's a shame his support has diminished so much in the last year...

Want: 75%

He'd be awesome.

Predicting a 12% for Medusa.

Nominating Falco x5

 

[Starcutter]

Saki: 75%

want: 50%

medusa 31.4%

nominations:
Kamek x5

(hey you other people, nominate kamek if you don't know who, so I can nom porky faster!)

 

[ToothiestAura]

Saki

Chances: 42-51%
Saki is one of those characters that would be truly strange if he didn't make an appearance in SSB4. He was featured as an AT, which gave him some popularity besides the folks who played his game and he got a new game shortly after Brawl's release. Sakurai himself stated how well he fit in with the Brawl cast (which really just seemed like a '**** you' to everyone, but I digress). He had one game when he became an AT, so now with two there should be a greater chance of him as a playable character.

Want: 67-79%
I've never played Sin & Punishment, but his inclusion as an AT in Brawl has made me want to (I just haven't yet). Based on what he can do in Brawl and his awesome weapon I would love to see him playable in SSB4.

 

[loganhogan]

Saki 50% He's from a cult classic series and he's the mascot of it.
want 50% Idk him well enough to determine if I like or dislike him sorry.