Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

[wildvine47]

Likelihood: 95% - Little Mac, at this point, is about the closest thing we have to a confirmed newcomer outside of the main three. Crazy popular, a ton of moveset potential, despite a bunch of naysayers to the contrary, and a boxing ring stage that is all but confirmed to be his leads to him getting probably the highest rating I'm going to be giving out, likelihood-wise.

Want: 90% - After my big top three God Tier wants (Ridley, K. Rool, Goroh), all ranked at 100%, Mac inhabits the next tier down in High Tier with Palutena, Medusa, Mewtwo, Roy, Starfy and Shulk. And with him and most of the rest of my big wants being pretty goddamn likely this time around, I'm feeling like the roster's gonna make me pretty friggin happy this time around.

 

[---]

Little Mac - 75%
Want - 99%
+ Popular
+ Had a successful modern revival
+ Longest running series from Nintendo to not currently have a rep (started in 1984, probably making it 2nd after Mario/DK)
+ Well known especially in the West
+ AT in Brawl
- Could be deemed "boring" due to being a boxer
** Possible Leak
** Possible Stage has already been revealed

Just for the record, Sakurai does pay attention to the West, so just because he's seen more as a Western character doesn't exactly mean all that much. At least his games have been released in Japan.

As for want, besides the awesomeness that is Cross Counter, only two words: Doc Louis.

 

[Erimir]

Popularity: Little Mac has a fair amount of demand in the West, but relatively little in Japan.

Relevancy: Punch-Out!! is one of Nintendo's oldest series, and it was recently revived.

Design: He'd certainly be unique, since as a boxer he shouldn't really use any kicks. There is a little bit of difficulty in coming up with a simple but interesting move set, I think.

Roster: He'd add a new series and a new type of fighter.

Revealed stuff: Well, the boxing ring stage certainly bears a strong resemblance to the one from Punch-Out!! so it seems likely to be for him. The only other stages I can think of that don't have associated characters/represented series are Smashville (and he had planned on including an Animal Crossing rep for Brawl) and ones without any characters (Pictochat, Hanenbow). It's possible, but unlikely that he'd put in a stage from Punch-Out!! but leave out Little Mac.

Little Mac chances: 84%
I don't think he's guaranteed to get in, but the stage is a pretty strong indicator. Without it, I would think he had decent but not great chances.

Little Mac want: 55%
I'm not really into Punch-Out!!, but he seems like an ok choice

Bowser Jr prediction: 57%
People don't seem to want or expect Mario newcomers as much as for other series, but he's probably the most wanted/expected of the bunch.

Nominations:
Simon Belmont x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Little Mac: 70%
He has a lot of western popularity, was an assist in brawl, had a new game and the new stage looks to be from Punch Out. On the other hand, his Japanese popularity is low, his moveset potential is limited and we've had stages like the animal crossing one in brawl with no playable characters. Still, I'm more confident than not that he'll be in this time.

Want: 60% He's alright. Never really played Punch-Out though. What I'm really curious is to what Sakurai will do with his moveset.

Bowser Junior: 51%

2x Takamaru
3x Roy

 

[papagenos]

Little-Mac

Likelihood- 99% all but confirmed at this point:
The stage
The leak
Assist Trophy status in brawl
Villager confirmed proving sakurai can rethink characters he couldn't make movesets for before
Has a new game on Wii giving him more relevance/a modern 3D look//moveset material/final smash material/personality/stages etc... I think mac had a lot of those things from his old games but maybe it wasn't so obvious, brawl could have given him all the updates he needed (see pit) but that Wii game took mac from possible to probable this time around.

Want- 100% Literally my most wanted character.

Nomination: Takamaru

 

[jaytalks]

Little Mac
Likelihood: 80%
He's one of the last NES legends to not make it in the game yet. With Sakurai's stated retro focus (despite the fact he is), what he brings to the table (sports character, popular, well known), and Nintendo's love for the franchise (with its new million selling revival), I think Little Mac has been never been better positioned for Smash. The only thing holding him back is coming up with a diverse moveset.
Want: 100%
There is no other Nintendo newcomer that should be in Smash more than Little Mac. No. Other.

Bowser Jr. Prediction: 45.56%.

Nominations:
Roy x 5

 

[Swift Fox]

Little Mac
chance: 70%
want: 0% too generic for SSB... >_>

Bowser Jr. prediction: 64.27%

 

[FalKoopa]

14.3% from GameFAQs.

Wow, GameFAQs thinks her to be even more unlikely than Toon Link.

Anyways,

Little Mac:
Likelihood: 85%
I'm very confident on his inclusion. The boxing ring stage simply screams"Punch-Out!!" He was revived recently in a Wii game, and was an assist trophy in Brawl. I'm banking on the leak though,as I don't believe it.

Want: 60%
Not familiar with the Punch-Out!! games.

Bowser Jr: Predicting 58%
Bowser Jr.is probably the most likely of the Mario newcomers, but a Mario newcomer itself is unlikely.

Nominations: Ike x 5

 

[Chauzu]

Little Mac

Likelihood: 80%

Very likely new addition in my book... He's a retro char who got his series reviewed and it's one of few fighting games from Nintendo, so should be a no-brainer. We don't have anyone who plays like him in Smash either.

Want: 75%

I love Punch-Out and want them to get a rep, but I don't really have any special feelings for Little Mac.

Bowser Jr

Prediction: 31%

Nominations
Scrooge McDuck x2
Phoenix Wright x2
Takamaru

 

[BlitznBurst]

Likeliness: 95%. The only detractor at this point is what with his Assist Trophy status in Brawl, Sakurai just might not think he should be a playable character.

Want: 100%. My most wanted character next to K. Rool.

Skull Kid X5

 

[cephalopod17]

Popularity: Little Mac is popular in west, kind of popular in East.

Relevancy: Punch-Out received a remake in 2009 and is a old Nintendo franchise

Design: I think his design would be based after Punch-Out Wii and he could use moves based on countering and combos

Roster: He would add a new series
The boxing ring stage and the leak rumor help his chances.

Little Mac's Probability: 90%
I think he has a better chance than Isaac or Dixie Kong, and the stage furthers my belief.

Little Mac want: 80%
I like Punch-Out, it has good music, good characters. I want him in.

Bowser Jr.'s Probability: 68
I would say more people want Bowser Jr. to join than Waluigi or Dr. Mario,due to his popularity and good moveset choices. (Waluigi lacks a easy moveset and most people seem to hate Dr. Mario)

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Little Mac Liklehood: 95%
Because of the leak, the ring, the newest Punch-Out! And his popularity since after Brawl

Want: 75%
It will be interessting to see what sort of fighting style they could give Mac, and knowing that Namco is behind it, creator who made Steve Fox from Tekken, I think Little Mac would be very interessting :D

Bowser Jr. Predict: 67%

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Little Mac:

Likelihood: 95% - Always seemed like a no brainer newcomer to me, and with the boxing ring it's pretty much a given. It'd be stupid to not include a rep for one of Nintendo's actual fighting games in a fighting game.

Want: 70% - Not a character I'd go crazy over, but he'd still be more than a welcome addition.

Bowser Jr. Prediction: 65%

Nominations:
5x Ike

 

[TumblrFamous]

Little Mac Prediction: 85%
He's not a shoo-in (no one really is, it's Sakurai), but I find him to be one of the more likely. Who knows, that 15% could be something coming that not a lot of people expected.

Want: 80%
He's not my most wanted character, but if I had the decision, I would place him in the roster.

Bowser Jr. : 66%
Finally we're onto him. Anyways, I think that not a lot of people want another Mario rep, so his chances are mediocre at best.

Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Little Mac

Likelihood: 85%
Stage pretty much confirmed it. There's no way they can't avoid it now. However, I'd be okay with him being unlockable

Want: 95%
Boxer and classic fighter, so wynaut?


Bowser Jr: 100%
There's NO way They would dodge a new Mario character and if Toad doesn't get it, then Junior should. Plus being my favorite Mario character, I think he deserves the chance this time.

Lucario x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Little Mac likelihood: 65%

Little Mac Want: 85%

Bowser Jr.: 40%

Nominations:
Waluigi x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Lil' Mac's chances: 85% - He's a pretty popular character in the NES days. The Punch out revival on the Wii did pretty well. And he does seem like a natural fit for the series given that he's from a boxing game. There's also that new stage, which seems like a dead giveaway to many.

Would I want to play as that character? About 80% percent for me. I actually see him as an interesting character. I understand why some think it would be kinda boring to have a character that only punches, but think it can work. We've seen boxers in fighting games before. Steve Fox in Tekken and Dudley in Street Fighter are the first that come to mind.

Bowser Jr. prediction: 80% - The only reason he isn't higher is that there's a few people that hate him. But he does have some potential to be a decent fighter.

I nominate Ganondorf 5 times again.

 

[SirPainsalot]

Little Mac
Chances: 85%
He can not be ignored, and Sakurai demonstrated that in Brawl as an assist trophy.
I highly doubt he'll be an assist trophy here, as he's one of the last few main Nintendo franchises that hasn't been represented. He's retro and he has his own revival, unlike the Ice Climbers, Pit (at the time), etc.
Also the boxing ring stage just screams "Smash Circuit", come complete with the logo right in the middle of the ring. I wouldn't be surprised if you could call out Doc Louis as Little Mac for a codec-like call.
A moveset wouldn't be generic because this is Sakurai we're talking about. He would probably use the star system with Little Mac's playstyle.

Want: 100%
I LOVED the Wii game, one of the most enjoyable games on the Wii imo. Full of personality and fun to play, what more can you want? There's no reason to not include him in.

Bowser Jr. Prediction: 61%
Wish it was Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario, but oh well. Indeed, like the others say his main problem is that he's another mario rep, that's it.

Nominations:
Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario x5

 

[BKupa666]

Little Mac

Likelihood - 100%
In what I consider to be a probable leak, due to the guy having predicted Villager and Wii Fit Trainer in an unedited leak before E3, a character with perhaps the most impressive of resumes, and one with a stage from his series revealed to boot, kind of like how Yoshi's Island was revealed before Yoshi pre-Brawl. When the most common arguments against him boil down to 'he's popular, but not popular everywhere', and 'the boxing ring may be generic', you know you've got a guaranteed character.

Want - 95%
I enjoy Mac himself, but especially love his series, and am thrilled it's getting coverage in this game.

Bowser Jr. Prediction - 49.5%

Nominate Ganondorf x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Little Mac - 95%

He was an assist trophy in brawl (and apparently some assist trophies were meant to be playable) and along with Golden Sun I think Punch Out is one of the more notable Nintendo franchises that hasn't gotten a rep yet. It seems like he has a very good chance of making it.

Want - 75%
I'm not really a fan of his series but I do like the idea of having a boxer and what that would bring to the table.

Bowser Jr Prediction - 30%
I don't seem him as that likely an addition. From what I hear there isn't much desire for another Mario rep. I'm not sure if he'll have very high priority. He has a chance to be sure but then I could say that for most Nintendo characters to some degree.

Chibi Robo X3
Fawful X2

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Little Mac

Likeliness: 83%
He is a recently and successfully rebooted Retro character with relavancy, popularity, and uniqueness not to mention his AT status in SSBB. And no matter how you say it, I consider that Arena/ring stage to be Little Mac's stage. No two ways about it.

Want: 79%
I was totally against the idea but warmed up soon after. I support him now.

Bowser Jr.

Prediction: 46.8

Nomz:

Nightmare x3
Dark Samus x2
Mach Rider x2
Toon Zelda/Tetra x2
Saki

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Little Mac
Predict: 88% Ring stage, popularity, leak all make him likely
Want:100%

Bowser Jr.: 65%

 

[Opossum]

Little Mac time!

Likelihood: 100%

Now this might seem crazy, but he honestly has the best things going for him out of all of the newcomer choices. Definite stage confirmation (there's no denying it at this point), crazy boxing potential, popularity, historical relevance, and a possible leak.

Want: 100%

It's Little Mac! Those who have known me since I first joined here should remember that I was always a huge Little Mac fan (although my Muddy support is probably more well-known, haha). I absolutely love the Punch-Out!! series.

Predicting a 45% for Bowser Jr. With all the different Mario character support, and GameFaqs, it may bring his score lower.

Nominating Ice Climbers x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

I would like to add that discounting Little Mac due to "being a boxer" and having a bland Moveset is complete and utter bull****. If anything, WFT and the Villager completely destroyed that argument. Little Mac could easily have a boxing-based move set that is unique, fresh, and interesting.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Little Mac
95%
Alright Little Mac. Punch-Out was a very popular game on the Wii which is helping a lot on his chances. If the leak is true, which, in my opinion, is, Little Mac is pretty much confirmed. In addition the boxing arena gives him a HUGE BOOST in likeliness. All of these reasons give me the 95%.
Want: 80%
I will be honest I didn't like him at first but now I do. I was always kinda if-y when thinking of a Moveset other than punch punch. However, I watched some punch out videos and he looked AWESOME, especially in move set potential! I would love it if Sakurai added him in, which I think he is already from the boxing stage announcement.

Bowser Jr. Prediction: 56.08%

Nominations
Takamaru x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Little Mac

Chance - 99% - A very popular long running franchise, a recent revival, an Assist Trophy in Brawl already showing some love, and that boxing ring is the final nail in the coffin. He is practically already in.

Want - 85% - Punching out beings significantly more powerful than you with nothing more than fists? Yes please.


Bowser Jr. Prediction - 25% - I think most people would agree that the core Mario cast is complete.

Nominations
Roy X5

 

[aldelaro5]

Little mac likehood: 70%

He's pretty popular, from a retro game which might interest Sakurai and being a boxer could make him unique. But, the stage thing MIGHT help his chances but I doubt it means a near confirmation. Also I didn't took the leak into consideration since yes the wii fit trainer can prove alot of legitimately but I have no proof of the original source (the mail the guy received) so instead of puting a 90%, I'll just thake this leak with a grain of salt. It's that I don't beleive it, just that I'm too doubtfull.

Want: 65%

I don't really mind if he's here or not but it could be cool to play as him.

bowser jr prediction: 65%

even tought he will have some good likehood, it is only if mario gets a new rep so it can drops his score

nomination:
paper mario x5

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Little Mac
Chance- 92% - That boxing stage, man, anyways I find him very likely

Want- 75%- not my most wanted character, but I'll probably play as him once and a while.

Bowser jr.- 33%- I find the mario cast unneeded of any more characters.

Nominations
Lucina 5x

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Holy crap guys. I wouldn't put any stock in this so called leak, and the boxing stage confirms nothing. If Nintendo thought it revealed Little Mac, they would have went ahead and revealed Little Mac. That said, he does have popularity going for him, and he has had something of a revival as of late thanks to a recent punch out game. He's not someone I am terribly excited about. The idea of a boxing based moveset doesn't appeal to me that much, but I think he deserves a spot, and he could make for an interesting character.

Litlle Mac Chances: 50%
Little Mac Want: 70%

As for Bowser Jr I'm predicting a relatively even split with gamefaqs dragging us down a bit. He's one of the more likely Mario reps, but others will point out we aren't getting another Mario rep.

Bowser Jr. Prediction: 45%.

Edit: Can't believe I forgot Nominations:
Paper Mario x5

 

[SirPainsalot]

Holy crap guys. I wouldn't put any stock in this so called leak, and the boxing stage confirms nothing.

While I agree that the leak doesn't really prove anything, the boxing stage certainly helps improve his likelihood of being there.

It's clearly Punch-Out!! inspired firstly, as explained by this post. (I can't really put it any better)
While Smashville did not bring the Villager, it was simply because Sakurai couldn't see such a peaceful franchise being violent.

Punch-Out isn't exactly peaceful to begin with, and Little Mac could make for interesting movesets involving the star system along with his (unique only in smash bros) boxing style.
That's why people use it as evidence.

 

[Robert of Normandy]

Little Mac
Likelihood: 85%
Even though I'm still taking that "leak" with several buckets of salt, Little Mac is one of the most likely newcomers. He always does well in popularity polls, he was an AT in Brawl(so we know Sakurai likely sees hi as somewhat important), plus there's that boxing stage. All in all he's very likely.

Want: 100%
One of my most wanted characters. I never really saw him being "just a boxer" as a problem, and he could easily be a whole lot of fun.

Prediction for Bowser Jr.: 60%

Nominations:
Roy x3
Lucina x2

 

[Donkeykong98123]

 

[shinhed-echi]

So to recap so far things he has going for him are:

-A LONG history with Nintendo (Miyamoto even drew the first characters for the Arcade)

-5 Games in the franchise (and an arcade spinoff)

-A natural fighter, with a unique fighting system (Star system) to have a unique feel in SSB.

-Assist Trophy status in Brawl. (Characters that were ALMOST playable, but didn't quite make it in the end, we knoe at least 2 to 9 characters were scrapped in the process of making the game).

-Captain Rainbow sub-game (this was a game about underrated characters, apparently it made him better known in Japan)

-Punch Out!! (2009) (This successful revival gave the series a new, modern coat of paint. Probably one of the most marketed Nintendo games in a good while)

-The Boxing Ring which completely emulates one of the rings in the Wii Punch Out game, except for the logos (which could totally be justified if the ring is called Smash Circuit, just like Animal Crossing's stage was called Smashville).


Am I missing anything?

 

[Keto]

Little Mac: 60%

Want: 10%

Bowser Jr. 47%

Sandbag x5

 

[Erimir]

It's entirely possible that they'll put Punch-Out!! branding on the stage after they reveal Little Mac. It would really just be changing the pattern on the floor, which is really easy to change. Probably not, but still possible.

I would like to add that discounting Little Mac due to "being a boxer" and having a bland Moveset is complete and utter bull****. If anything, WFT and the Villager completely destroy that argument. Little Mac could easily have a boxing-based move set that is unique, fresh, and interesting.

I don't think WFT and Villager show that Little Mac wouldn't be bland.

They're more "weird, how do they attack?" But if you take the idea that they can attack with things that aren't normally attacks, you have a bunch of options to make a zany move set for the Villager and plenty of yoga poses for WFT. Little Mac is more "it's very obvious how he attacks, he punches. But he doesn't really attack in any other way."

So their issues are pretty much the exact opposite of each other. Unless Sakurai is going to add other things to Little Mac besides punching, it is valid to wonder how many ways he can punch and still have interesting specials.

Not that I don't think he could have a good move set, it just isn't one that "dance out at me" to use Sakurai's terminology. It would require more thought IMO to come up with an interesting move set. It's also possible that he just won't have a very interesting move set as far as the concepts behind his attacks (it may still be interesting in the sense of how he plays). Punches, punches, smash punches, special punches that are stronger and maybe make the opponent dizzy, and more punches. Of course, that's also pretty much exactly what Marth's move set is, but with a sword. I also don't think Marth's move set is very interesting. So I don't give that very much weight, as even with a move set that's kinda "Marth, but with punches" he'd still be unique.

And of course, that doesn't mean he couldn't be fun to play as. Personally, I really liked playing as Sheik in Melee, and while I'd occasionally use the needles to poke at people from far away, I for the most part didn't use her special attacks, so it was all just punches and kicks.

 

[papagenos]

Lots of fighting games have added a boxing characters and most fighting games actually involve basically two kinds of attacks: punches and kicks. literally many fighting games the buttons are A for punch and B for kick, or those 2 buttons are punch and those 2 are kicks... and yet those games get boxer characters who break the rules of what buttons do what!

smash doesn't even have those limitations there is no KICK button, characters attack all sorts of ways. Mac can easily have spinning punches, hooks, back flipping punches, double fist punches, jumping punches and he'd be about as interesting as most characters A movesets; also for a good B/special moveset see his own page on this site, it has a great moveset involving his jumping star uppercut, gaining stars, countering attacks, stunning opponents, and regaining % (which I think could be incredibly unique to little mac making him the stamina fighter).

point being, Mac could be very unique with a diverse moveset if a little thought is put into it.

 

[Reznor]

Little Mac
Chance:45%- if hes not that popular in japan then he might not get in

Want:50%- I really don't care if he gets in or not

Bowser Jr.- 40%

Nom
Paper Mario x3
Waluigi x2

 

[Xenigma]

Thinking about how I want to rate Little Mac today, I definitely wish I had rated Mewtwo higher than I did since he's just as (if not slightly more) likely. Ah well.

Little Mac - 95%
Pre-E3, I probably would have given him 50%. Popular character in the West, been in a decent number of games including a Wii revival, was an assist trophy in Brawl, and the boxer archetype would be unique in Smash. What gives him such a huge boost? That stage, of course. It's such an obvious call out to Punch-Out that it would be shocking for Little Mac to not be in. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to find he's the next reveal, with an expanded version of the E3 trailer showing him punching Bowser on the other side of the ring when Villager enters to net Mario. Obviously he's still not guaranteed, but with such a strong hint given in the reveal trailer, Sakurai had to know what the implication would be. Seems like intentional foreshadowing to me.

(As a side note, the rumor would fit perfectly with such a reveal, mirroring the E3 trailers. Little Mac in an expanded main trailer alongside Villager, Pac-Man getting his own reveal post-trailer like Mega Man, and then Mii gets a cute trailer later on much like WFT. Doesn't really prove anything, just seems like an interesting possibility for TGS or whatever the next major show is.)

Want - 80% - He ought to be a really fun character, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he's the favorite character of the biggest Smash fan I know, so I know he'd go over super well within my local playgroup.

Bowser Jr. Prediction - 43.5%
He'll do alright, but he's going to have quite a few doubters. I imagine many will argue that Mario doesn't need another rep, or that he's not the best choice for a new Mario rep.

Nominations
5x Lucina

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

It's entirely possible that they'll put Punch-Out!! branding on the stage after they reveal Little Mac. It would really just be changing the pattern on the floor, which is really easy to change. Probably not, but still possible.
I don't think WFT and Villager show that Little Mac wouldn't be bland.

They're more "weird, how do they attack?" But if you take the idea that they can attack with things that aren't normally attacks, you have a bunch of options to make a zany move set for the Villager and plenty of yoga poses for WFT. Little Mac is more "it's very obvious how he attacks, he punches. But he doesn't really attack in any other way."

So their issues are pretty much the exact opposite of each other. Unless Sakurai is going to add other things to Little Mac besides punching, it is valid to wonder how many ways he can punch and still have interesting specials.

Not that I don't think he could have a good move set, it just isn't one that "dance out at me" to use Sakurai's terminology. It would require more thought IMO to come up with an interesting move set. It's also possible that he just won't have a very interesting move set as far as the concepts behind his attacks (it may still be interesting in the sense of how he plays). Punches, punches, smash punches, special punches that are stronger and maybe make the opponent dizzy, and more punches. Of course, that's also pretty much exactly what Marth's move set is, but with a sword. I also don't think Marth's move set is very interesting. So I don't give that very much weight, as even with a move set that's kinda "Marth, but with punches" he'd still be unique.

And of course, that doesn't mean he couldn't be fun to play as. Personally, I really liked playing as Sheik in Melee, and while I'd occasionally use the needles to poke at people from far away, I for the most part didn't use her special attacks, so it was all just punches and kicks.

Yeah, I agree they have the "weird factor". However, the point I was driving at is if Sakurai and his team were able to make unique and fun move sets for WFT and the Villager, I'm willing to bet they could make Little Mac a little more than a bland, boring boxer. Plus, I was calling out those who knock on Mac's likeliness due to his potentially bland Moveset.

 

[Sebz]

Little Mac ~ 85%

This guy has the support, the background, and the potential. So yeah, his chances are high.

Want ~ 75%

He's grown on me over time, and while I am not clamoring for him to get in, he'd be a pleasant addition.

Bowser Jr. ~46%

While I do LOVE the idea of playing as a more nimble of Bowser, I'm just not sure if this little fella has the support and importance to make it in.

Nominate
Genesect x5 (gotta keep piling these noms)