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Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

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Zage

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397
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Maryland
Shulk Chances: 10%

Haven't even heard of him until now, and after googling his series I don't think he has a chance in hell.

Want: 0%. He seems very bland to me, and wouldn't mesh well with the rest of the cast. Maybe as an AT though.

Dixie Kong prediction: 80%.

I'm willing to bet that the DK series will get a new rep, and if it isn't KK Rool then it is definitely Dixie.

Nominating Starfy 6x
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
No time for flavor now, will get to it tomorrow.
has earned a 47.75% overall in likelihood and a 64.15% in overall want. On Smashboards, Shulk scored a 49.58% in likelihood and a 61.12% in want and on GameFAQs, Shulk claims a 44.92% in likelihood and a 68.48% in want.

Day 7 begins! Today, you will be rating Dixie Kong's likelihood and how much you want Dixie Kong along with predicting Pac-Man's score for tomorrow. You also have five nominations at your disposal today. The day will end on the evening of July 1st, 2013.

The winners of the prediction contest are Erimir, Johnknight1, FalKoopa, Opossum and SupahLink, all from Smashboards. Erimir gets five extra nomination, Johnknight1 gets four extra nominations, FalKoopa gets three, Opossum gets two and SupahLink gets one. kikaru and Crap-Zapper can still use their extra nominations since they didn't use it yesterday.

If you are confused, here's the format to use to help you out:
Dixie Kong: *Insert likelihood with possible reasoning*
*Insert want score*

Pac-Man: *Insert prediction for Pac-Man's score tomorrow. Not the same as voting for likelihood*

Nominations: *insert five nominations*
 

TumblrFamous

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Dixie Kong Prediction: 78%

Other than King K. Rool, Dixie Kong is the next best DK representative. Sakurai said that the most important part of a character is to bring something unique to the game. While King K. Rool has more moveset potential, Dixie has her ponytail going for her, which Sakurai can easily use. However, like I said before, it's just a matter of priority between K. Rool and Dixie.

Want Score: 80%

I would choose K. Rool over Dixie any day. However, judging her on her own, I would love to play as Dixie. It'd be a very unique character, and I think very different from Diddy.

Pac-Man: Eh... 61.7%

Lots of people think he's likely, but many people may not want him, so I'd give my prediction a low 60%.

Grr... my nomination is again all for Jr.!

Bowser Jr. x5
 

FalKoopa

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Kinda surprised that GameFAQs wants Shulk more than us. But whatever.

Dixie Kong:
Likelihood: 55%
Dixie Kong has the advantage of being planned for Brawl in some form, and would probably be easy to implement as a Diddy clone. She faces two problems: K. Rool is far more requested than her, and is also much more unique than her, and Sakurai seems to be going for uniqueness. And I think that getting two DK reps is unlikely, though certainly possible.

Want: 40%
Not a huge DK fan, though I feel that her inclusion would be well-deserved.

Pac-Man prediction: 60%
Namco getting a character is 50/50 at this point, but that interview where the interviewer brings up Pac-Man when talking to Sakurai is blown out of proportion by Pac-Man fans. So I'm giving him that score.

So I get 8 nominations?
Toon Link x 8

Also,
@SSBF
A question. I, Opposum and JohnKnight all predicted 50% for Shulk. So why were each of us given a different number of extra nominations?
 

josh bones

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Likelihood: 50%: Tropical freeze makes her more relevant, which is why I put her chances from 10 to 50 percent.
Want: 95%: Just love he4
 

Shadow312

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Messages
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Dixie Kong
Likelihood: 52%
We know she was once thought of to be playable so for that I give her a tiny bit above average chance. I can see Donkey Kong easily getting another rep - being King K. Rool. However, 2 reps is not guaranteed by any means, so that makes me less optimistic.

Want: 90%
I do want more female additions to the cast and I love the Donkey Kong series. I always preferred Tiny Kong from 64 version and Candy Kong over Dixie though oddly enough. I think it's because Dk64 was one of my favorite games and she wasn't in it. What makes it not 100% is I want King K Rool for the DK rep and Krystal more for a female addition. If I knew both could be in than Dixie would be 100% wanted

Pac-Man: 65%


Noms: Krystal x5
 

Starbound

Worlds Apart, But Still Together.
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Dixie Kong: 60%
Knowing how she was planned for Brawl doesn't really help her much, because the concept of the tag team makes her a nightmare to program for the 3DS. Outside of hair twirls, she's really not all that different from Diddy in battle, and the name of the game for Smash 4/5 is uniqueness. So I believe that if she gets in, she'll either get in as a partner for Diddy or a semi-clone added late in development. That being said, she is still very much a Nintendo All-Star and certainly does fit in to this game.

Want: 50%
Not really a character I enjoy, but she's not going to lower my opinions of the game.

Pac-Man: 50%
Split even between the people who think Pac-Man is a shoo-in due to the rumor and the people who think the rumor is false.

Nomz: Mewtwo x5
 

Toxicroaker

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Dixie kong: 58% (to lazy to write a description)

Want: 5% just no

Pac-Man: 28.54% he is 3rd party

x5 Waddle Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee..........
 

BKupa666

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Dixie Kong

Likelihood - 60%
Let's nip an old and tired argument in the bud right off the bat, shall we? Dixie being part of the Forbidden 7 means virtually nothing, for multiple reasons. It's selective reasoning used to support her and not characters like Doc and Toon Zelda, first off. "Sakurai revisits old ideas" is equally selective, considering for every idea he revisits, like Villager, Dedede, Mewtwo and Final Smashes, there are ideas he leaves in the dust, like Balloon Fighter, Sukapon, Urban Champion and the Excitebike Racer. "Sakurai thought about how she would move" is yet another poor argument, since Villager is living proof that not every character Sakurai has "thought about" in the past is visible on Brawl's disc as data; he could have thought about thousands of characters, for all we know. And if Dixie is to be planned separate from the duo she was originally intended to be in (a likely case, since duos are causing trouble on the 3DS), more thought in her moves would be needed anyway, to the point where she's virtually level with any other newcomer.

That said, as one of those newcomers, I think Dixie has a decent shot at earning her way into playability. For as often as confused speculators claim she's competing for a DK series 'slot,' they neglect that the roster isn't a legislative body full of representation quotas, but rather a hodge-podge of Nintendo's all-stars, which she definitely qualifies as. According to fan polls, her popularity is middling in the West and above-average in Japan, giving her some degree of support to her name as well. Lastly, her capacity to take Diddy's moveset and Luigify it is worth noting, since she could easily replicate his acrobatics and tail-based moves using her hair, while diversifying them up enough with her own tomboyish flair.

Oh yes, and as much as I detest the "relevance" **** that is bound to follow, I think Tropical Freeze bodes well for her inclusion for other reasons. It doesn't render her likely just because she's in it; for all intents and purposes, a single new DK game without her post-TF is enough for those pundits to forecast her chances right back in the rubbish heap. What's key about the game is that it's another notch on Dixie's belt as far as importance goes; she's now no longer the sidekick to a sidekick, but is now teaming up with DK himself. If that isn't a solid all-star credential, it's tough to say what is. Really, Sakurai is all that's majorly standing in her way; since he touted the importance of 'uniqueness' in his interview the other day, it's feasible that Dixie could fall through the cracks due to lacking it, beyond bizarrely pulling juiceboxes and Animal Buddies out of thin air, as occurs in most fan movesets.

Want - 50%
She's a mixed bag for me. I'd go ape for the additional Donkey Kong representation, especially since it opens up the door for more content from DKC3, her big game. That said, 'a character with a third arm' (the third arm being her hair) doesn't have immediate appeal to me; I'd probably save playable Dixie for DK series battles of all three Kongs vs. K. Rool, because heaven forbid such nerd dreams actually happen in a DK game.

Pacman Prediction - 59.5%
His relatively small number of fans on this site will unite with the recent leak believers to balance out his detractors well enough.

Nominate:
Little Mac x3
Mewtwo x2
 

@tomic

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Dixie Kong: 55% - More likely than K Rool since she's appearing in the new DKC.

Want: 0% - Don't really care.

Pac-Man: 30%
 

Lightosia

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Dixie: 85% ~
Tropical Freeze isn't what makes her so likely, it's the fact the she is one of the Forbidden Seven from Brawl. Maybe she was planned as a duo character with Diddy, but who knows...
Sakurai likes to add characters that didn't made the cut from last game (for example, Bowser and Peach were planned to be playable in 64, but entered Melee only)

Want: 55% ~
+/- I don't care if she's in or not.

Pacman prediction - 56%

Still with the same nominations:
Lucas x2
Jigglypuff x2
Ike
 

Jedisupersonic

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Dixie Kong: Gonna give Dixie a 50%. She has things going for her but I'm not sure of her actual chances
Want: 50%. I don't mind either way

Pac-Man chances: 44.5%

Nominations: Sonic X2, Roy X2, Lyn
 

Swamp Sensei

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Dixie Kong: 60% Decently popular and is still fresh on people's minds. Only thing I see standing in her way is Sakurai adding K.Rool and only wanting 3 DK characters.

Want: 60% She'd be cool, but she'd get a meh from me.

Pac-Man Prediction: 52%

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Mewtwo
Little Mac
 

BluePikmin11

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Dixie Kong: 70% Decent chance, more likely than K. Rool.

Dixie Kong: 60% I want Dixie Kong, but I hadn't really got to experience the rest of the DKC games to really find something good to talk about (I only played DKCR3D so far).
Pac-Man Prediction: 80%
Nominations:
Little Mac x5
^ We should predict 100% on Little Mac.
 

MagnesD3

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Dixie Kong: 70% I think she has a good chance for 3 reasons. One she was supposed to be in brawl as she was in the forbidden 7, two she is in the new tropical freeze donkey kong game and three she is just a very popular character overall.

Want is 50% Im for her if its a tag team with diddy otherwise it doesnt matter a ton to me.

Pacman: 50%

Nominations:
Krystal x5
 

Keto

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Dixie Kong: 25%
King K. Rool takes up the other 75%.

Want: 0%

Pacman: 44.4%

Sandbag x5
 

Xenigma

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Dixie Kong - 40%
Like I said back in K. Rool's round, the fact that Donkey Kong has two very notable potential newcomers hurts their individual chances because I don't think they'll both get in, nor am I 100% Donkey Kong will get a new rep (though I think chances are higher than most). So why am I giving Dixie a slightly higher rating than K. Rool (who I gave 35%)? One, she is somewhat more prominent within the Donkey Kong franchise than K. Rool (though admittedly not by much). Two, she has a major role in the upcoming Tropical Freeze, which I imagine Sakurai would have heard about back when he was deciding on the roster. Third, she's one of the forbidden seven, meaning Sakurai has previously considered her for inclusion. Finally, though I know clones aren't well liked, she could easily be included as a Diddy Kong clone or semi-clone, while K. Rool would surely be a fully unique character. K. Rool could certainly trump her due to sheer demand and/or due to Smash needing more villains, but in my mind she's got a slightly stronger chance should it come down to one or the other.
Want - 25% - I'm fond of the character, but considering I don't like playing as Diddy, chances are I wouldn't like playing as Dixie either.

Pac-Man - 56.5%
Thanks to the rumor his chances will be inflated from what he probably deserves; depending on how many people still stand by it, this could be undershooting significantly.

Nominations
5x Toon Link
 

SethTheMage

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Dixie Kong is my most wanted newcomer, so I know that my bias will play a part in this, but here goes:

Likelihood: 70%
Note: I'm not counting Dixie's appearance in Tropical Freeze because Sakurai has pretty much decided the roster at this point.
She was planned to be a character in Brawl, she is a long-standing veteran of Nintendo's history since she was created 18 years ago, and she is almost always the third playable Kong character after DK and Diddy for party games and Mario spinoffs (the only exception to this is Mario Kart Wii). In the recent interview with Kotaku from about 4 days ago (I'm too lazy to provide a link), when Sakurai was asked to give examples of previously scrapped character ideas, he denied the request because "what will happen with those instances is still up for debate." This says to me that the door is still open to her and other cut characters, especially since Sakurai changed his mind about Villager. He may decide to put her on a tag team with Diddy, like he originally planned for Brawl (I would prefer her solo, but I would accept this as well).

In my very controversial opinion, she is one of the few Nintendo "all-stars" left that have yet to appear in Smash as playable, possibly on the level of K. Rool and Ridley (And yes, I understand that the term "all-star" is very debatable and doesn't hold much weight in speculation).

One of the things that may stand in Dixie's way is that she might lack an original fighting style. Sakurai is looking for uniqueness this time around, and she might not make the cut for what he is looking for; who knows what he is thinking. However, I do see some possibility with her style being based around hair whipping, nimble movements, and grappling. Sure, in the end, she might borrow some moves from Diddy, but since I used him a lot in Brawl, this does not bother me.


Want: 100%
She is obviously my most wanted newcomer, so I don't need to explain anything here.

One more thing: I also really want K. Rool in this, so don't think that I'm bashing him. He has been shafted time and time again in recent years, and I don't feel that the Donkey Kong series would be properly represented without DK, Diddy, Dixie, and K. Rool.

Nominations:
x5 Krystal
 

EddyBearr

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Dixie Kong: 60%. Another DK rep is almost guaranteed, but I expect K rool before her. 2 DK reps is not out of the question, though. It seems DK is shining lately.

Pac-Man prediction: 10% I don't think folks give him a good chance with Megaman's confirmation.

Nominations:
Rayman x3
Toon Zelda/Tetra x1
Baby Bowser Jr x1 (I lump them as the same. Go with whatever is more wanted if you separate them.)
 

Morbi

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I do not really know much about Dixie. So my ratings should be taken with a grain of a salt. I am only basing this one what I have seen on the forums. I should also mention that I have a bias and want K. Rool in the game.

Likelihood: 60%- This is mostly based on her being originally slated for Brawl. She is also requested a lot while being female. Hopefully Sakurai takes the initiative to add more females in the game. She seems like a decent candidate. However, her staggering resemblance to Diddy might be her undoing.

Want: 20%- If K. Rool wasn't going to make it... I would prefer Tiny Kong... so that being said I don't really care for Dixie too much. I still want her in for a new Donkey Kong rep though.
 

Erimir

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Alrighty...

Popularity: Dixie Kong is among the most wanted characters, but not at the top of the list, and I'm assuming not significantly different in demand in the West and Japan. She comes from a popular and highly acclaimed series. DK is Nintendo's 4th best selling franchise (after Mario, Pokemon and Zelda) and they all have 4-6 representatives, while DK is stuck with two. It's the least represented franchise relative to sales outside of Mario and Pokemon, which have sales so huge they have to have fewer reps relative to sales. The question in my mind is not whether DK gets a new rep, but who it is.

Relevancy: She's in DKC Tropical Freeze, the followup to the financial and critical success of DKC Returns. DK is back in top form, so very relevant now. Donkey Kong is also the second most important franchise to Nintendo history and lore, after Mario, so it has relevancy in that way as well.

Her primary competition, K Rool, is not confirmed to be in Tropical Freeze yet. So she's possibly more recent than him, but if K Rool ends up being in it, then they're both recent. Either way, she is still making appearances.

Design: Here she starts to run into some problems. She has the ponytail, which can be used to make some hair moves. She didn't appear in DK64, which is where Diddy got half his special moves, the jetpack and the peanut gun (the other two were made up). But she has some moves for attacks and throws. Her specials would mostly have to be made up though, be stolen from other DK characters (e.g. Tiny Kong) or come from DK spin-offs. What really hurts her here though is that Sakurai originally intended her to be part of a Diddy-Dixie team, like the Ice Climbers. I find that a highly unlikely possibility now, both because Diddy is established as a stand-alone character and because of the 3DS technical limitations making me suspect Sakurai will be avoiding two-part characters if he doesn't have a really good reason to do it.

Overall, she could still have an interesting design, and they can obviously make up hair-based moves and make her quite different from Diddy, but without the uniqueness of the Diddy+Dixie team up, she ends up slightly behind on that count.

Roster considerations: She'd add in the remaining major protagonist from the Donkey Kong series, and add another female character which is a slight point in her favor.

Technical/legal issues: None.

Comeptition: K Rool is very strong competition. He's very important to the series (more important than Dixie, IMO), he has much more demand than her, and he's a more unique than her. This is her biggest negative.

To be roughly consistent with what I said before: I think a third DK rep is very likely (~93%), and a fourth rep is a non-negligible possibility (maybe a ~23% chance?). I give most of the probability to K Rool (for reference, I gave him 87%). If DK gets four characters, I'm certain that Dixie and K Rool would be the ones to get in (like, >99%). If it's three reps, I think it's probably K Rool (around 75% chance).

Dixie chances: 36.5%
In the end, I think K Rool is much more likely, but she's still quite a possibility for the new DK rep. And there's a small chance we'll get both of them.

Dixie want: 73%
I'd rather have K Rool, but I'd really rather just have both. Even so, I'd be happy if Dixie got in - Donkey Kong Country 2 was one of my favorite games back in the day (and still worth a replay).

Pac-Man prediction: 62%
There's some balance between the people who want him, the people who hate him and the people who think he's an auto-include because Namco is working on the game or because of the rumored leak. Multiple biases and rumors interacting results in a moderately high score.

Nominations:
10x Simon Belmont
 

Mr. Mumbles

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Joined
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Messages
793
Alrighty...

Popularity: Dixie Kong is among the most wanted characters, but not at the top of the list, and I'm assuming not significantly different in demand in the West and Japan. She comes from a popular and highly acclaimed series. DK is Nintendo's 4th best selling franchise (after Mario, Pokemon and Zelda) and they all have 4-6 representatives, while DK is stuck with two. It's the least represented franchise relative to sales outside of Mario and Pokemon, which have sales so huge they have to have fewer reps relative to sales. The question in my mind is not whether DK gets a new rep, but who it is.

Relevancy: She's in DKC Tropical Freeze, the followup to the financial and critical success of DKC Returns. DK is back in top form, so very relevant now. Donkey Kong is also the second most important franchise to Nintendo history and lore, after Mario, so it has relevancy in that way as well.

Her primary competition, K Rool, is not confirmed to be in Tropical Freeze yet. So she's possibly more recent than him, but if K Rool ends up being in it, then they're both recent. Either way, she is still making appearances.

Design: Here she starts to run into some problems. She has the ponytail, which can be used to make some hair moves. She didn't appear in DK64, which is where Diddy got half his special moves, the jetpack and the peanut gun (the other two were made up). But she has some moves for attacks and throws. Her specials would mostly have to be made up though, be stolen from other DK characters (e.g. Tiny Kong) or come from DK spin-offs. What really hurts her here though is that Sakurai originally intended her to be part of a Diddy-Dixie team, like the Ice Climbers. I find that a highly unlikely possibility now, both because Diddy is established as a stand-alone character and because of the 3DS technical limitations making me suspect Sakurai will be avoiding two-part characters if he doesn't have a really good reason to do it.

Overall, she could still have an interesting design, and they can obviously make up hair-based moves and make her quite different from Diddy, but without the uniqueness of the Diddy+Dixie team up, she ends up slightly behind on that count.

Roster considerations: She'd add in the remaining major protagonist from the Donkey Kong series, and add another female character which is a slight point in her favor.

Technical/legal issues: None.

Comeptition: K Rool is very strong competition. He's very important to the series (more important than Dixie, IMO), he has much more demand than her, and he's a more unique than her. This is her biggest negative.

To be roughly consistent with what I said before: I think a third DK rep is very likely (~93%), and a fourth rep is a non-negligible possibility (maybe a ~23% chance?). I give most of the probability to K Rool (for reference, I gave him 87%). If DK gets four characters, I'm certain that Dixie and K Rool would be the ones to get in (like, >99%). If it's three reps, I think it's probably K Rool (around 75% chance).

Dixie chances: 30%
In the end, I think K Rool is much more likely, but she's still quite a possibility for the new DK rep. And there's a small chance we'll get both of them.

Dixie want: 70%
I'd rather have K Rool, but I'd really rather just have both. Even so, I'd be happy if Dixie got in - Donkey Kong Country 2 was one of my favorite games back in the day (and still worth a replay).

Pac-Man prediction: 62%
There's some balance between the people who want him, the people who hate him and the people who think he's an auto-include because Namco is working on the game or because of the rumored leak. Multiple biases and rumors interacting results in a moderately high score.

Nominations:
10x Simon Belmont
Not to be that guy, but by the probabilities you mention earlier in this same post your prediction for Dixie should be closer to 41%.

P(A) = P(A and B)+P(A and not B) thus P(Dixie Kong) = P(Dixie and <3 reps) + P(Dixie and 3 reps) + P(Dixie and 4 reps) + P(Dixie and >4reps). I think we can both agree that greater than 4 DK reps isn't going to happen, or at the very least has a negligible probability. Further, I think we can agree that Dixie getting in if there is less than three reps is 0. Therefore P(Dixie Kong) = 0+P(Dixie and 3 reps) + P(Dixie and 4 reps)+0 = P(Dixie | 3 reps)*P(3 reps)+P(Dixie | 4 reps)*P(4 reps) = P(Dixie | 3 reps) * P(>2 reps) * (1 - P(4 reps)) + P(Dixie | 4 reps)*P(4 reps). By your approximations in your post that comes out to P(Dixie) = (1-.75)*(.93*(1-.23))+(.99)*(.23) = .406725. So my question to you is simple. Do you trust your other approximations more or your 30% more? Because the two are in stark contrast to one another.

EDIT: Oh, and by similar math your rating for K. Rool should have been 76%... which it very nearly was. So it kinda seems like you are giving Dixie Kong the shaft since for her it was about a 10% difference instead of the 1% for K. Rool.
 

MasterOfKnees

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Dixie Kong:

Likelihood: 30% - With Sakurai confirming that the character choices have been made, I don't see her Tropical Freeze appearance affecting her chances at all. Her position in the Forbidden 7 also don't matter too much since she was originally part of a tag team, with that idea out of the way I find it hard to see her being able to stand alone, especially in the eyes of Sakurai. Plus, she's got nasty competition with K. Rool. Only Donkey Kong gets 2 new characters do I see Dixie joining in, else she'll be under the boot of the king.

Want: 40% - Not really a fan, the Donkey Kong franchise needs a character which isn't an ape, and that's K. Rool. Still, she's better than other Kongs (except Funky!) and she'd still make a decent addition.

Pac-Man Prediction: 70% - People are gonna take the rumor too seriously.

Nominations:

5x Bowser Jr. - Because it's the last character I care a bit about.
 

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がんばってね!
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Dixie Kong - 70%
Want - 45%
+ Was planned for Brawl, only one of the cut characters to be acknowledged by Sakurai
+ Tropical Freeze marks her return to the series
+ Somewhat popular

She's somewhat even with K. Rool, is a better bet to bet on the cut character though.
 

Opossum

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Dixie Kong time.

Likelihood: 45%

I don't have a strong feeling we'll get 4 DK reps, and I feel K. Rool is much more likely.

Want: 50%


Predicting a 28% for Pac Man, although I personally feel he should be higher.

Nominations: x7 Ice Climbers
 

Alban712

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Dixie:
Likelihood: 45%
Want: 65%

Pros:
-DK series getting 3 slots is a very likely possibility
-Can be considered popular (though, off course, not at the same level as Ridley or Mewtwo)
-Relevant since the announcement of Tropical Freeze
-Very few people are against her inclusion
-Capable of being relatively unique
-Was intended to be on brawl at some point

Cons:
-K. Rool is much more requested and It's not certain that DK series will get 4 characters
-Other characters have priority over her and more potential to be unique
-Sakurai seems to be focusing more on protagonists from unrepresented series

Pacman: 55,35%
 

Neanderthal

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Dammit I missed Shulk. Oh well. Like most characters I think he's been given too high a chance at 48%. I'd say more like 20% at the most since Xenoblade was just a stand alone game. My want would be in the 90's though. He's even in my sig below.

Dixie Kong

Chance: I'd estimate the chance of a new DK rep as being around 90-95%. And about a 30% chance that we will get two (obviously Dixie and K.Rool).
I think Dixie's chances have at least caught up to K.Rool (and probably marginally overtaken) due to her rise at E3 . So in the end Dixie gets a 65% from me.

Want: About the same as K.Rool at 70%. She seems like a fun character and I feel she would be a big hit amongst many fans. The DK series could really use a female rep too.

Nomnominations:
Mii x (whatever # of votes I'm allowed this time).
 

Shorts

Zef Side
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Dixie Kong - 67% (Dixie > K Rool)

Want - 100%

Pac - Man: Prediction 75%

Krystal x3
Medusa x2
Tharja x1
 

Ice Sage

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Joined
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Messages
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Dixie

Chance: I'd think around 75%. Dk getting a new rep seems pretty high. its ether her or K.rool

Want: gonna say 80%. DK getting a new rep would be awesome and she would probably be fun to use.
 

Groose

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I'll start off with a little disclaimer. This post may seem biased. There's a good explanation behind it---- it is biased. I'm a major supporter of King K. Rool.

Dixie's Chances: 40%
1) Forbidden Seven: Being a Forbidden Seven member does provide a boost to Dixie's chances; however, it is not as large of a boost as some may think. For one, Dixie may have only been planned as a partner to Diddy. If this is so, there may never have been any intent of making her a solo character. It is very likely that Diddy will remain his own character---he worked well as such in Brawl and the 3DS is causing problems for duel characters. Furthermore, many of the other Forbidden Seven characters---Plusle/Minun and Toon Zelda ring bells--- are almost certainly forgotten, so this may be the case for Dixie.

2) Tropical Freeze: This may or may not give her a boost. It depends on the internal state of affairs at Nintendo. Did Sakurai know of Tropical Freeze when he drafted the roster?

3) King K. Rool: Like it or not, K. Rool is very popular rival for Dixie. If Sakurai had planned to create the Kremling King, then Dixie may not have been given any thought at all.

4) Lack of an Obvious Moveset: She has hair. Yay! All of the characters we've looked at so far (Palutena, Shulk, Isaac, K. Rool, Ridley) and most the characters who have got in (Mega Man, Villager) have so much more moveset potential than Dixie. Sakurai surely must see this?

5) Similarities to Diddy: This actually may be the biggest boost to Dixie's chances. The similarities she shares with Diddy may allow her to become a last-minute clone, ala Wolf or Ganondorf.

Dixie Want: 15% I'm a guy who's all about moveset potential. Dixie's is almost nonexistent. Also, I support K. Rool. Dixie is the one character who I'd kind of hate to see in Smash, especially if it means our favorite Kremling is given the boot. However, if Dixie did make it in, I would give her a shot---I'd imagine she'd play like Diddy, who I enjoy using in Smash.

Pac-Man Prediction: 72%. I can't wait to see this upcoming day.

Tingle! Tingle! Kooloo-Limpah! Nominate Tingle x5
 

Erimir

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Not to be that guy, but by the probabilities you mention earlier in this same post your prediction for Dixie should be closer to 41%.
[...]
P(Dixie | 3 reps)*P(3 reps)+P(Dixie | 4 reps)*P(4 reps) = P(Dixie | 3 reps) * P(>2 reps) * (1 - P(4 reps)) + P(Dixie | 4 reps)*P(4 reps). By your approximations in your post that comes out to P(Dixie) = (1-.75)*(.93*(1-.23))+(.99)*(.23) = .406725. So my question to you is simple. Do you trust your other approximations more or your 30% more? Because the two are in stark contrast to one another.

EDIT: Oh, and by similar math your rating for K. Rool should have been 76%... which it very nearly was. So it kinda seems like you are giving Dixie Kong the shaft since for her it was about a 10% difference instead of the 1% for K. Rool.
I obviously didn't bother doing the math, but I tried to keep in mind what I said for K Rool. I didn't try to be exactly the same as my previous post, since my thoughts aren't exactly the same. There's also some slight possibility of some other DK character which would have to be taken into account if I were going to be exact.

I also don't think it's correct to calculate the probability of exactly 3 reps the way you did (appears to be .93*(1-.23). I didn't say that 23% was the chance of getting a 4th rep given that there's a 3rd rep, but the overall probability.

So, if you wanna be that guy, let's do this all proper mathy then...

I was originally thinking 3 to 4 for just K Rool vs. Dixie, but I should consider the chance of Funky, Cranky or someone else getting in, so... (I'm going to consider it basically impossible that they'd choose both slots without K Rool or Dixie). And I guess I do trust my overall feeling more than the sub-chances I gave. So these numbers will be slightly adjusted.

Let's say:
P(>=3 DK reps) = 96%
P(>=4 DK reps) = 23%
P(>=5 DK reps) <1% (in other words, I'll just ignore this for the sake of simplicity, and at any rate, I'd consider both Dixie and K Rool a 99.99% lock in that case)

Notice this means probability of exactly 3 DK reps = 73%. P(=3 DK reps) should not be obtained by multiplying probabilities, since it is not possible for there to be >=4 reps but not >=3 reps.

P(K Rool|3 DK reps) = 79%
P(Dixie|3 DK reps) = 20%
P(other DK|3 DK reps) = 1%

We'll say that the above are also equivalent to the chances that they decide on those characters first (i.e. they get the first new DK slot), for the purpose of evaluating probabilities for the 4th slot. These aren't independent events though, so if Sakurai has already decided on Dixie, he might think about K Rool vs. Funky differently and vice versa. I kinda think K Rool and Dixie go together better than the other combinations, also adding more heroes makes K Rool even more likely (and almost any other DK rep would be a hero).

P(K Rool|4 DK reps) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(Dixie|3 DK reps) + P(K Rool|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(other DK|3 reps) + P(K Rool|3 DK reps) = .995*.2 + .9*.01 + .79 = 99.8%
P(Dixie|4 DK reps) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(K Rool|3 DK reps) + P(Dixie|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(other DK|3 reps) + P(Dixie|3 DK reps) = .95*.79 + .1*.01 + .2 = 95.1%
P(other DK|4 DK reps) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(K Rool|3 DK reps) + P(other DK|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(Dixie|3 reps) + P(other DK|3 DK reps) = .05*.79 + .005*.2 + .01 = 5.1%
(notice those add up to 200% = 2 characters)

The final probability calcuations are then:

P(K Rool) = P(K Rool|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(K Rool|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .79*.73 + .998*.23 = 80.6%
P(Dixie) = P(Dixie|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(Dixie|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .2*.73 + .951*.23 = 36.5%
P(other DK) = P(other DK|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(other DK|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .01*.73 + .051*.23 = 1.9%

We can also calculate what I should give as adjusted probabilities based on one or the other is revealed but we get no other useful information:
P(K Rool|Dixie) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(4 DK reps) = .995*.23 = 22.9%
P(Dixie|K Rool) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(4 DK reps) = .95*.23 = 21.9%
P(K Rool|other DK) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(4 DK reps) = 20.7%
P(Dixie|other DK) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(4 DK reps) = 2.3%
P(other DK|K Rool) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(4 DK reps) = 1.2%
P(other DK|Dixie) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(4 DK reps) = 0.1%


So by that calculation, I should give K Rool 80.6%, Dixie 36.5% and allot to any other DK reps a total of 1.9%

So, in that case, I gave K Rool too high by a little bit, and Dixie too low by a little bit.

I have changed my Dixie post to reflect this. ARE YOU HAPPY?!?
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
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Messages
793
I obviously didn't bother doing the math, but I tried to keep in mind what I said for K Rool. I didn't try to be exactly the same as my previous post, since my thoughts aren't exactly the same. There's also some slight possibility of some other DK character which would have to be taken into account if I were going to be exact.

I also don't think it's correct to calculate the probability of exactly 3 reps the way you did (appears to be .93*(1-.23). I didn't say that 23% was the chance of getting a 4th rep given that there's a 3rd rep, but the overall probability.

So, if you wanna be that guy, let's do this all proper mathy then...

I was originally thinking 3 to 4 for just K Rool vs. Dixie, but I should consider the chance of Funky, Cranky or someone else getting in, so... (I'm going to consider it basically impossible that they'd choose both slots without K Rool or Dixie). And I guess I do trust my overall feeling more than the sub-chances I gave. So these numbers will be slightly adjusted.

Let's say:
P(>=3 DK reps) = 96%
P(>=4 DK reps) = 23%
P(>=5 DK reps) <1% (in other words, I'll just ignore this for the sake of simplicity, and at any rate, I'd consider both Dixie and K Rool a 99.99% lock in that case)

Notice this means probability of exactly 3 DK reps = 73%. P(=3 DK reps) should not be obtained by multiplying probabilities, since it is not possible for there to be >=4 reps but not >=3 reps.

P(K Rool|3 DK reps) = 79%
P(Dixie|3 DK reps) = 20%
P(other DK|3 DK reps) = 1%

We'll say that the above are also equivalent to the chances that they decide on those characters first (i.e. they get the first new DK slot), for the purpose of evaluating probabilities for the 4th slot. These aren't independent events though, so if Sakurai has already decided on Dixie, he might think about K Rool vs. Funky differently and vice versa. I kinda think K Rool and Dixie go together better than the other combinations, also adding more heroes makes K Rool even more likely (and almost any other DK rep would be a hero).

P(K Rool|4 DK reps) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(Dixie|3 DK reps) + P(K Rool|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(other DK|3 reps) + P(K Rool|3 DK reps) = .995*.2 + .9*.01 + .79 = 99.8%
P(Dixie|4 DK reps) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(K Rool|3 DK reps) + P(Dixie|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(other DK|3 reps) + P(Dixie|3 DK reps) = .95*.79 + .1*.01 + .2 = 95.1%
P(other DK|4 DK reps) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(K Rool|3 DK reps) + P(other DK|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(Dixie|3 reps) + P(other DK|3 DK reps) = .05*.79 + .005*.2 + .01 = 5.1%
(notice those add up to 200% = 2 characters)

The final probability calcuations are then:

P(K Rool) = P(K Rool|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(K Rool|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .79*.73 + .998*.23 = 80.6%
P(Dixie) = P(Dixie|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(Dixie|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .2*.73 + .951*.23 = 36.5%
P(other DK) = P(other DK|3 DK reps)*P(=3 DK reps) + P(other DK|4 reps)*P(>= 4 reps) = .01*.73 + .051*.23 = 1.9%

We can also calculate what I should give as adjusted probabilities based on one or the other is revealed but we get no other useful information:
P(K Rool|Dixie) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(4 DK reps) = .995*.23 = 22.9%
P(Dixie|K Rool) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(4 DK reps) = .95*.23 = 21.9%
P(K Rool|other DK) = P(K Rool|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(4 DK reps) = 20.7%
P(Dixie|other DK) = P(Dixie|4 DK reps & other DK already)*P(4 DK reps) = 2.3%
P(other DK|K Rool) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & K Rool already)*P(4 DK reps) = 1.2%
P(other DK|Dixie) = P(other DK|4 DK reps & Dixie already)*P(4 DK reps) = 0.1%


So by that calculation, I should give K Rool 80.6%, Dixie 36.5% and allot to any other DK reps a total of 1.9%

So, in that case, I gave K Rool too high by a little bit, and Dixie too low by a little bit.

I have changed my Dixie post to reflect this. ARE YOU HAPPY?!?
1 = P(<3 reps) + P(3 reps) + P(4 reps) + P(>4 reps) = P(<3 reps) + P(3 reps) + P(4 reps) + 0 = P(<3 reps) + P(3 reps) + P(4 reps)

1-P(<3 reps)-P(4 reps) = P(3 reps) => 1-(1-P(>= 3 reps))-P(4 reps) = P(3 reps) => P(3 reps) = P( >= 3 reps) - P(4 reps)

P(3 reps) = (.93) - (.23) = .7 != .93*(1-.23)

Yep you sure are right. Man I don't know what crack I was smoking. Then again my heart wasn't entirely in it before since I figured either a.) No one would know what I'm talking about b.) everyone would ignore me or c.) both. I tell you what though my math degree should be revoked for making a dumb mistake like that. But yes I am happy. Not only did someone know enough math to know what I am talking about, but my inability to explain things well didn't throw said person off, and they were able to see the error of my ways. I am quite happy.
 

kikaru

Smash Ace
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Messages
890
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Some small and insignificant country town, WA.
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Dixie Kong: 60% chance. With her introduction to Tropical Freeze I see her being a possible candidate for a slot on the Donkey Kong lineup. If King K. Rool fails to make the cut then I feel like Dixie would be almost guaranteed as an individual character. In the end I have confidence that Donkey Kong will have three representatives.

Want: 45%. She's a cool cat Kong and I wouldn't mind seeing her inclusion as long as she doesn't play too similarly to Diddy Kong. Her ponytail could actually give her some pretty interesting properties and attacks such as the ability to float and propel herself in the air.

Pac-Man: 55%.

I shall use my leftover nominations so the nominees are:

Lyndis x3
Takamaru x4
Mac baby x1 (Little Mac)
 

Erimir

Smash Lord
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Messages
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DC
3DS FC
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Yep you sure are right. Man I don't know what crack I was smoking. Then again my heart wasn't entirely in it before since I figured either a.) No one would know what I'm talking about b.) everyone would ignore me or c.) both. I tell you what though my math degree should be revoked for making a dumb mistake like that. But yes I am happy. Not only did someone know enough math to know what I am talking about, but my inability to explain things well didn't throw said person off, and they were able to see the error of my ways. I am quite happy.
My degrees are actually in philosophy and linguistics, but I'm pretty good with math even so.

When I actually do the calculations. I do have to write down math most of the time (a lot of people think if you're good at math you're one of those people who does arithmetic with large numbers very quickly in your head). But even though I knew it wouldn't be exact, it was so much easier to just do it with addition and subtraction than with all the multiplications...
 

Mr. Mumbles

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 13, 2013
Messages
793
My degrees are actually in philosophy and linguistics, but I'm pretty good with math even so.

When I actually do the calculations. I do have to write down math most of the time (a lot of people think if you're good at math you're one of those people who does arithmetic with large numbers very quickly in your head). But even though I knew it wouldn't be exact, it was so much easier to just do it with addition and subtraction than with all the multiplications...
He who finds the easiest path to a solution, barring any logic oversight, is most likely right. Indeed writing it out instead of typing would have helped. The math we were using could have all been learned from a high school probability course, but even so most people who aren't currently enrolled in said course, and don't pursue math further tend to forget, so I'm still very impressed.
 
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