Nintendo has a history of not always having the smoothest launches. It is commonplace for even highly anticipated games to arrive at non-game stores (Wal-Mart, K-Mart, etc.) several days, or more, late. Which is why I reserved at GameStop.
But, no matter if the release date changes again or not, I could easily see Brawl being in short supply. The entire GameStop franchise sold out of PREORDERS for Wii Play. I was lucky to get a copy. Now, I know this comes with the remote, but I think it is safe to say thatBrawl is more popular than a Wii Remote.
And let's not forget the lack of Nintendo first party products all the way through the end of February and beginning of March last year. The DS was nearly impossible to find, and even (at least where I am) the GameCube didnt last long on shelves. The Wii still doesnt. Now you may say that those are systems, and Brawl is a game.
It was common for Nintendo first party games to be sold out for a while around--and after--Christmas. New Super Mario Bros, Twilight Princess, Mario Kart DS, both Kirby DS games, Wario Ware for DS, GCN, and Wii, and many other titles took a good long time to finally start appearing on shelves again.
I remember even long ago, after Pokemon Yellow was released, it took a nice couple of weeks for it to show up in stores, and stay on the shelves for longer than a couple days.
When Halo 3, by far one of the best games of all time had it's release, millions of copies were sold on day one, and millions more are still being sold. I live in a college down, and the game was sold out for a week even though every store filled preorders and (even walmart) ordered hundreds of copies.
I do not expect Super Smash Brothers Brawl to be an easy thing to find, until at least the middle of March. I expect them to ship whatever the game stores order to fill preorders, and probably about 30-50 copies in addition. I also expect non game stores (best buy, target, walmart, kmart, and cosco and the like) to get much less copies than this. I expect those stores to recieve 20-25 max.
Nintendo has a history of not quite being able to meet demand, both on their consoles and on games, and even first party games and systems that have been released for a while tend to be in short supply around the Holliday season, and for a couple months after. There are those who expect Link's Crossbow Training to carry the Wii Zaper to sell out. I am pretty sure that Brawl is in MUCH higher demand than Link's Crossbow Training.
Nintendo has had problems before, and I dont know if they are aware how truly big they need to make the launch of this game. Much like the Halo 3 launch, this needs to be an event, not just a shelf stocking.
Reserve Brawl or be gaurenteed to miss out. That is the bottom line.