Cut
Okay so for sure
would've been cut. To me, Snake, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Wolf, and Ice Climbers were all actually missed and stood a chance of coming back even if Ultimate didn't have every character. Pichu and Young Link kind of just came back so they could say "Everyone is Here!". It's telling when the other cut Melee characters, Roy, Dr. Mario, and Mewtwo, all came back in some form during Smash 4's lifespan.
I think
might not have made it because he was the WTF DLC. To address the other DLC 3rd parties, I don't think they would've cut
or
. Bayonetta is basically a 1st party now and Platinum Games and Nintendo are close. Ryu is a really big character and it would be kind of weird for Nintendo to ask to bring Mega Man back but not Ryu.
I think
and
would've been made alt costumes because of the backlash of their inclusion in Smash 4. Lucina would've stayed because of how popular she is. I mean in the actual Fire Emblem community she's arguably more popular than Marth.
, :ultrobin, or
all had the chance of getting cut, at least one of them would've. Sakurai has stated he thinks there's too many FE characters. I think if everyone had not came back, he would've at least removed one. Roy is the most popular, but Corrin and Robin have unique movesets. I'd say Corrin would be cut though because Sakurai was practically forced to include him in the game, so he likely had no attachment to the character.
Now I'm going to address some characters that many think had the potential of being cut, but I don't. Bayonetta and Ryu will not be included here as I already addressed them.
It's hard to say if
would've returned or not, because we don't know if
would've made it into the game if everyone had not returned. But I think due to Konami and Nintendo's growing relationship, if Simon made it, Snake would've too.
and
would've definitely returned because there was backlash when they were initially cut. Sakurai noticed this and decided to have them return. They're both more popular than others in their series so I doubt they would've been axed once again.
would've 100% returned and here's why. Sakurai included them to exemplify the fact that you can fight as
anyone in Smash Bros. He wouldn't take that idea away, especially after he worked so hard for it to come true. Plus the Miis are still a big part of Nintendo's image as all, even if they are fading.
All the retro characters (
) would've return because they represent what is so amazing about Smash. All of these forgotten favorites getting to come together and battle is what makes the game so interesting. Plus, they all have incredibly unique movesets that surely took a long part of Sakurai's time. Unlike others, like Link or Kirby, who practically have moves made for Smash in their games, these characters required a ton of thinking by the development team to come up with innovative moves.
Transformation characters were cut in Smash 4 due to 3DS limitations. So with that out of the way, I do honestly think
would've returned whether the game was branded as Ultimate or not. Charizard was criticized for feeling out of place without his two partners, and the trainer was one of Smash's best ideas to date.
Wouldn't have been cut for the same reason as the retro characters. It's an extremely fun idea that represents what Smash is.
After doing this, I kind of theorized why the game became Smash Bros Ultimate. I think with the 3DS limitations not in the way anymore and Sakurai realizing the popularity of so many cut characters, he realized that the amount of characters he actually didn't plan on bringing back (probably just Pichu and Young Link, and maybe Snake) was not a great enough amount to just bring everyone back. Ice Climbers and Pokemon Trainer were both always coming back in Ultimate, Wolf was popular and greatly missed, and Snake was also a fan favorite.