Which Characters does Sakurai Prioritize the most for SSB4?

[Fatmanonice]

My personal theory on the matter:

I remember shortly after Brawl came out a number of people were debating what determined whether a character was "safe" or not. Here are a few things people speculated:

1. Characters that have appeared in more than one Smash game have more prevalence than those that have just appeared in one. (One + for every game they are in.)

2. Characters who appear in the starting roster at some point in time have more prevalence than unlockable characters.

3. Current main characters (as in the star of the latest game of their respective franchise) have prevalence over side characters and past game stars.

4. Characters with unique movesets have prevalence over clones and semiclones.

5. Characters with more modern relevance have prevalence over older characters.

6. First/second party characters have prevalence over third party characters.

So, if we were to divide up the current cast into tiers into how likely they are to stick around based on these standards, it would look something like this:

God Tier:



The original 8. All are the stars in their respective franchises, all have unique movesets, and all have been starters in every single game so far.If any of them were cut, the universe would probably implode on itself.

Individual Breakdown:

1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 8 +, 0 - = 8


Top Tier:



The original 4 unlockables plus the Ice Climbers and the two unlockable franchise stars in Melee. Aside from Luigi, all have unique movesets, all are the leading characters in their respective franchises, and all have been in at least two games. It should also be noted that Ness and Captain Falcon were both starters in Melee, theoretically increasing their "job security."Jigglypuff's relevance is iffy but the other factors are argued to help her out a lot. It should be noted that of the new additions to Melee's starting roster, the Ice Climbers were the only ones that represented a new franchise. Ice Climbers, Marth, and Game and Watch are ranked above people like Bowser and Peach simply because they are the stars of their respective franchises. The chances of any of these characters leaving is pretty small.

Individual Breakdown:

1. +++ 2. - 3. + 4. - 5. + 6. + = 6 +, 2 - = 4
1. +++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. - 6. + = 7+, 1 - = 6
1. +++ 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 7+, 1 - = 5
1. +++ 2. - 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 5+, 3 - = 2
1. ++ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. - 6. + = 6+, 1 - = 5
1. ++ 2. - 3. + 4. + 5. - 6. + = 5 +, 2 - = 3
1. ++ 2. - 3. + 4. + 5. - 6. + = 5 +, 2 - = 3

High Tier:



Melee's new starting roster additions as well some of the Melee unlockables who "survived" the cuts. All are side characters but still important to their franchises with several of them being playable in canon appearances.All have been in at least two games and more than half of them have unique movesets. These characters have been established as staples in Smash but not as much as the original cast. Some of these characters are only a little iffy but they are probably near the bottom of the list when it comes to characters that are being considered to be cut. If anything, they're more likely to be tweaked then get the boot.

Individual Breakdown:

1. ++ 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6 +, -1 =5
1. ++ 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6 +, -1 =5
1. ++ 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6 +, -1 = 5
1. ++ 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 5 +, - 2 = 3
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. + 6. + = 4+, - 3 = 1
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. + 6. + = 4+, - 3 = 1
1. ++ 2. - 3. + 4. - 5. + 6. + = 5+, -2 = 3


Mid Tier:



Most of Brawl's new starting roster plus ROB. Roughly half of them are franchise stars and all of them have been playable in canon games in their respective franchise. All are still very relevant to their respective franchises and all have unique movesets. ROB is a special case largely because he was the only unlockable character in Brawl representing a new first party franchise to Smash. These characters are not yet staples of Smash Bros but it's widely agreed that they all have a long history ahead of them.


Individual Breakdown:

1.+ 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6 +, 0 - = 6
1. + 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. + 6. + = 5 +, 1 - = 4
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6 +, 0 - = 6
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6+, 0 - = 6
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6+, 0 - = 6
1. + 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. + 6. + = 5+, 1 - = 4
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. + = 6+, 0 - = 6
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. - 6. + = 5+, 1 - = 4


Low Tier:



The remaining newcomers in Brawl's starting roster. All are franchise stars but their relevance is argued to be questionable (especially Ike). PT and Ike have unique movesets while Lucas is the only semi-clone who has ever made it to the starting roster of a Smash game, something questionably significant but could ultimately save his skin. PT and Ike are in danger of being replaced by newer characters in their respective franchises and many people argue that Ike will become the new "Roy" once SSB4 actually comes out. These characters are on the chopping block but have enough going for them to not make them at the top of the list.

Individual Breakdown:

1. + 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 4 +, 2 - = 2
1. + 2. + 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 4 +, 2 - = 2
1. + 2. + 3. + 4. - 5. - 6. + = 4 +, 2 - = 2

Bottom Tier:



The remaining new unlockable characters in Brawl including the two third party "guests." Despite Sonic's overwhelming popularity, modern relevance, and unique moveset, his inclusion is entirely dependent on SEGA's cooperation. If SEGA says no or Nintendo doesn't bother to contact them, that's the end of it (despite the fact that he's extremely likely anyways). Snake's the same way except with Konami. Lucario's relevance is as hotly debated as PT and Ike but, unlike them, he was unlockable and he's a side character in his respective franchise. Wolf is still important to the Star Fox franchise but he's plagued with a number of things. He was Brawl's only unlockable new semi-clone and still a supporting character in his respective franchise. If there are any cuts made in SSB4, there is no doubt that at least one of these guys will be one of them.

Individual Breakdown:

1. + 2. - 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 3 +, 3 - = 0
1. + 2. - 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. - = 3 +, 3- = 1
1. + 2. - 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. - = 4+, 2 - = 2
1. + 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. + 6. + = 3 +, 3-= 0

Final Breakdown:

Going off of the 6 basic standards highlighted at the very top, the three games have been broken down by how likely each character is to be cut. The higher the number, the least likely they are to be cut. Because of each game having different caps, characters who have appeared in more games have prevalence over characters who have only appeared in one. For example, Jigglypuff is the most likely to be cut of the original cast based on this model but is safer than characters like Lucas because she has appeared in all three games as opposed to his one.

Original Smash Bros Fighters

= 8/8 Most Likely to Stay of Original Cast Based on Model
= 6/8
= 5/8
= 4/8
= 2/8 Most Likely to Leave of Original Cast Based on Model

Melee Fighters:

= 5/7 Most Likely to Stay of Melee Cast Based on Model
= 3/7 (Marth and Game and Watch are at the top of the unlockable Melee "tier list")
= 1/7 Most Likely to Leave From Melee Cast Based on Model

Brawl Fighters:

= 6/6 Most Likely to Stay from Brawl Cast Based on Model
= 4/6
= 2/6 (Keep in mind that Sonic is still third party and thus at the top of the bottom).
= 1/6 (Same situation as Sonic)
= 0/6 Most Likely to Leave From Brawl Cast Based on Model

Breakdown of Cut Melee Fighters for Comparative Purposes

1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. + 5. - 6. + = 4+, 3 - = 1/7
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. + = 3 +, 4 - = -1/7
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. + = 3 +, 4 - = -1/7
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. + = 3 +, 4 - = -1/7
1. ++ 2. - 3. - 4. - 5. - 6. + = 3 +, 4 - = -1/7

 

[XenothiumX]

as for newcomer priority i'm thinking:

1. Mewtwo
2. King K.Rool
3. Ridley (I don't think Sakurai initially had him in mind, but the fans demand him)

-after these characters I don't see any others he could add that would boost the sales of the game

4.another FE character ( for being relevant, but who knows maybe we might get 3 FE reps and keep Ike)
5. some goofy character Sakurai's been thinking about lately (that might have been just the WFT, but maybe there's another)

-after this it gets really hard to determine. there are plenty of characters that are good for smash, but it's up the the developers to decide.

I agree with the 8 newcomers minimum idea. If we don't see at least 8 newcomers it just wont seem too impressive and the game will seem like some updated version of Brawl.

 

[Dark Phazon]

45 characters sounds just about right. I've always been predicting 8 Newcomers so I wouldn't be surprised if my beloved Ike would get the axe too. And I don't believe that a Mario rep, Black Shadow or Isaac/Shulk would ever get prioritized over either K. Rool or Ridley as newcomers. Their popularity and potential speaks for themselves, and they'd both rep two very underrepresented franchises. Either way, this thread isn't the talk for that, but try and be a little optimistic

Hmmmm we always are the best thinkers arent we? XD.

Tbh about Dixie/K.Rool i actually think its 50/50 if Sakurai would add one of them.

Ofc to us he is perfect and he is! Im just going by what i think Of Sakurai adding another D K Reo i think its 50/50 if he will and in slightly leaning more towards Dixie than K.Rool.

As for Ridley...he aint getting in..come on be Real....Bias & FanGasmz aside...he wont be playable
And you already know why.

 

[StaffofSmashing]

Wasn't there a page somewhere on the web saying King K. Rool, Ridley, Little Mac and Takamaru were confirmed?

*looks it up*

Sure is.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Wasn't there a page somewhere on the web saying King K. Rool, Ridley, Little Mac and Takamaru were confirmed?

*looks it up*

Sure is.

They haven't been confirmed. However, Little Mac is a pretty safe bet, K. Rool and Ridley are pretty likely too, and Takamaru is hardly an unlikely choice either.

 

[Dark Phazon]

Wasn't there a page somewhere on the web saying King K. Rool, Ridley, Little Mac and Takamaru were confirmed?

*looks it up*

Sure is.

Yes...lets all believe random pages of the net with no evidence....

@WarioFan - I actually dont think Sakurai would make Ridley playable...RealTalk....

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Yes...lets all believe random pages of the net with no evidence....

@WarioFan - I actually dont think Sakurai would make Ridley playable...RealTalk....

same here, no matter how much i want them playable, part of me thinks that ridley ( i dont think ridley is to big at all, but who knows if sakurai does) and k rool will never make it..

 

[StaffofSmashing]

Yes...lets all believe random pages of the net with no evidence

Ya, with that logic, IGN is fake.

Ends argument,

 

[CalumG]

People who put Pokemon Trainer in anything lower than B or C Tier (i.e. the most important characters outside of the original 8) need to check their priorities. Last I checked, Pokemon Trainer is the protagonist of Pokemon, one of the only characters to appear in all 5 generations of Pokemon, and has three of the most recognizable critters at his disposal. I'd argue that he didn't get in earlier due to technical limitations or time constraints, but I'd say he's without a doubt one of the Brawl newcomers who has no chance of going anywhere.

 

[Reznor]

why are people saying Lucas is lower priority than Ness I think I heard Lucas was meant to replace Ness but they kept him for some reason

 

[Speculator]

People who put Pokemon Trainer in anything lower than B or C Tier (i.e. the most important characters outside of the original 8) need to check their priorities. Last I checked, Pokemon Trainer is the protagonist of Pokemon, one of the only characters to appear in all 5 generations of Pokemon, and has three of the most recognizable critters at his disposal. I'd argue that he didn't get in earlier due to technical limitations or time constraints, but I'd say he's without a doubt one of the Brawl newcomers who has no chance of going anywhere.

I agree. Like I said before I think this sort of thing is very much a repeat of those people who thought characters like Game & Watch would leave after Melee, for reasons like "he's weird to play" or "nobody uses him." The reality is that not only is Pokemon Trainer an original character, he's three original characters in one. Sakurai is making every effort not to disappoint people by removing styles of play that they like. Just because a character isn't popularly played, like Pokemon Trainer or ROB or Jigglypuff, isn't a case to assume they're in danger of being removed. Sakurai doesn't only look at what's popular, but at what each character brings to the game and what would be lost by their removal.

This is why I personally feel the only characters really in the danger zone are characters that can be supplemented by an already present character. Primarily Wolf and Toon Link. Think of it not as the character being lost, but that style of play.

 

[SpaceJell0]

I agree. Like I said before I think this sort of thing is very much a repeat of those people who thought characters like Game & Watch would leave after Melee, for reasons like "he's weird to play" or "nobody uses him." The reality is that not only is Pokemon Trainer an original character, he's three original characters in one. Sakurai is making every effort not to disappoint people by removing styles of play that they like. Just because a character isn't popularly played, like Pokemon Trainer or ROB or Jigglypuff, isn't a case to assume they're in danger of being removed. Sakurai doesn't only look at what's popular, but at what each character brings to the game and what would be lost by their removal.

This is why I personally feel the only characters really in the danger zone are characters that can be supplemented by an already present character. Primarily Wolf and Toon Link. Think of it not as the character being lost, but that style of play.

Remember this is a priority thread, not a "character cuts" thread. Sakurai considers some characters more important than others due to a number of reasons, including popularity. Otherwise you'd be seeing obscure characters more often. (Not hating on you though, I love Game & Watch, Pokémon Trainer, and Wolf)

 

[shinhed-echi]

I have another trend.

Characters who appear on the front cover of the boxart never leave.
(Sonic and Snake appear in the back introduced as GUEST characters, so guests can leave)


So +1 for:
--64--
Mario
Link
Pikachu
Fox
Samus
Link
Donkey Kong (pal, or Melee)
Yoshi (pal, or Melee)

--MELEE--
Zelda
Ness
Captain Falcon
Ice Climbers
Bowser
Peach

--BRAWL--
Metaknight
Pit
Pokemon Trainer
Wario


What do you think?

 

[Dark Phazon]

I have another trend.

Characters who appear on the front cover of the boxart never leave.
(Sonic and Snake appear in the back introduced as GUEST characters, so guests can leave)


So +1 for:
--64--
Mario
Link
Pikachu
Fox
Samus
Link
Donkey Kong (pal, or Melee)
Yoshi (pal, or Melee)

--MELEE--
Zelda
Ness
Captain Falcon
Ice Climbers
Bowser
Peach

--BRAWL--
Metaknight
Pit
Pokemon Trainer
Wario


What do you think?

I think this thread should die.....

 

[SpaceJell0]

I think this thread should die.....

Why? What's wrong with a few friendly debates and speculation?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

This in my opinion is pretty accuarate:

God priority: literally zero % chance of getting cut

High: like a 2% chance of getting cut

Med: : dumb if any were cut

Low: : sonic because he is thrid party, pokemon because of development time, ike for new fire emblem, Rob due to lack of popularity. lucas due to many thinking he is an exact replica of ness, zero suit samus because she is just samus.

very low: ,or (pretty self explanatory)

Rob low popularity I see you barley ever read on the Internet rob is indeed loved and unique

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Rob low popularity I see you barley ever read on the Internet rob is indeed loved and unique

Yes, but a lot of people dont care about him either to. I like him a lot because he is extremely unique, but a lot of people dont, and im afraid sakurai will put him into the low category. I dont think anyone that is not in the very low even have a chance of being cut besides Ike, but i believe that everyone above Rob on this list has more of a priority than he does

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

double post heres mine

God tier

these are the starters of number 1
high tier

there all too popular to be kicked

jigglypuff I hope you guys remember that shes one of the new fairy type pokemon so cleary jigglypuff can get a different moveset

zero suit samus in the trailer samus did the final smash I would not be surprised if it shedded the armor again it just not ready yet

sonic he was the most requested character to join the series and if you guys done some reading Takashi Iizuka of Sega's Team Sonic recently stated in an interview with NintendoWorldReport that he would like to see Sonic the Hedgehog make an appearance in the new Super Smash Bros. titles so I doubt hes going anyway


Mewtwo the evidence for him theres so much evidence you can build a house with it all
1 mewtwos kick from brawl practically caused an angry mob
2 he was only kicked due to time he was meant for brawl not only that he was suppose to be part of the official 12 he was meant for the 64 one
3 he can represent for the 6th generation of pokemon because he has a form in the 6th gen
4 sakurai blabbermouthed that they are considering mewtwo for smash 4
5 he can clearly get a better moveset than in melee
6 he was so close to completion in brawl even the voices were inside
7http://www.ssbwiki.com/File:MewtwoBrawl.jpg that was a real picture it was beta testing subspace emissary
8 the fans do not want him kicked again

med tier

right in the middle
ROB way to unique and love in brawl to fail to get in but only here just because its still possible of being one of the kicked but to defend him more he appeared in StarTropics, Kirby's Dream Land 3, the Star Fox series, the WarioWare series, the F-Zero series, Viewtiful Joe, and his head appears in Pikmin 2, called the 'Remembered Old Buddy'. R.O.B. is also featured as an unlockable character in Mario Kart DS and Super Smash Bros. Brawl

falco well its a 50/50 shot for him due to wolf but hes more likely to win

snake true Hideo Kojima ask sakurai to put him in and said melees to close to completion but I promise you the 3rd smash bros and happened doesn't mean Hideo Kojima will win again on getting snake in

pokemon trainer it is likely he be in again but just with different pokemon but probably not on getting in

lucas name a second game lucas was in i just see it in the out area than the in

low tier

sorry likely to get the words GET OUT

toon link if you looked on one of the 3ds stages you see toon link conducting a train and is the only clone of brawl (almost all of his attacks looked just like links)

Ike hes likely to be replaced by Chrom the newest 3ds fire emblem game and its popular ike I dident really see any popularity in him

lucario same as above except mewtwo and pokemon X and Y is coming out in October 3 months before 2014