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Want to know when a certain pokemon will appear? (Research:059%; New behavioral info)

Spyda

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 22, 2007
Messages
364
Location
Houston, TX
I thought it was random.... because I have otten 3 goldeens before in the same match and my roommate got one too...
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
I'd like to make a quick observation on Manaphy's heart swap. (This is on Battlefield)

When Heart Swap is initated (not when Manaphy appears), it will only effect those in a certain range. Testing this, I jumped after Manaphy as it floated to the top of the stage to perform heart swap (it was about 2 1/2 to 3 jumps above the top platform and straight above the right side of it). The other two computer players were neck-and-neck on the right platform when it began, and they experience the heart swap instead. Since heart swap is such a rare occurence, I'd like to state what I've found out about how it works.

1) Heart Swap will not work if the two closest characters are about 10 character lengths apart or more, and they need to be close enough to an invisible epicenter as well.

2) Heart Swap might not always affect the characters closest to each other, but from what I can tell, those closest to the epicenter.

3) The epicenter may be the center of the stage, but I'm not positive.

4) On battlefield (and this is merely conjectural), Manaphy seems to appear more frequently around sunset and on the base platform just next to the right of the left platform and straight down from the left side of the top platform.

5) This has only happened to me once, so I'm not sure how accurate this assumption may be, but if a Heart Swap is ineffective, Manaphy has a much higher chance of spawning again (it appeared 46 pokeballs later when it happened to me) until (and this is conjectural, since that time it was effective) a Heart Swap is successful.

That sound about right?
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Something that just caught my eye:

When an electrode spawns and starts self-destructing earier than usual (almost right after it appears), it has a delayed explosion. Keep that in mind, okay?
 

Senshuu

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
447
Location
TN, USA
This would explain why I have yet to see Kyogre or that big red dinosaur-like one! (I never played RSE...I forget names)

This is actually pretty interesting. I just wish for the tl;dr version (first post) that I didn't have to read it all in italics. But, nice.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Just finished test #6, which took about 88:06 of actual play time (it was an 80-stock match), and I got a sample of 667 pokeballs from it (erie, huh?). I also got every single CD that appeared (7 in all, and half of them were in the middle of enemy pokemon attacks), so I'm in a good mood right now. I'm gonna go to bed soon, so I might be a little more detailed on this test findings tomorrow.
 

Yokipi

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
Messages
39
Hm, well, this is interesting. I never really thought that Pokéballs had a pattern.

Well, this isn't contributing much, but I'm pretty sure I got a Mew once on the middle-left platform in Battlefield. Well, I didn't, but a computer did in Endless Brawl. (Not an alloy)
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Hm, well, this is interesting. I never really thought that Pokéballs had a pattern.

Well, this isn't contributing much, but I'm pretty sure I got a Mew once on the middle-left platform in Battlefield. Well, I didn't, but a computer did in Endless Brawl. (Not an alloy)
You kidding me? That's a tremendous contribution! Mew is one of the 4 pokemon I never thought could be spawned in anything but group modes. The position sounds about right for Mew, albeit odd that it wasn't on the base platform. If you could just provide proof this would be a wonderful addition. But, since you say you're only "pretty sure", you probably did snapshot it, but it's okay. Thanks for the info!
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Another behavior report: this time on Celebi!

Well, it's not really a report, more like an observation, but Celebi almost always drifts of the edge of the stage while dropping, making it a suicide jump for one of the (usually) 3 trophies, unless you use Peach's float or something to that effect. I've only got Celebi to appear midstage once, and it dropped 4 trophies that time. Keep that in mind the next time you brawl.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Looks like I was wrong about Celebi, it turns out that one appeared while either C2 was attacking C3 or vice virsa, and while gardivor[sic] was out.

By the way, guys, if you have any theories, I'd love to hear them!
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Okay, here's an update on my progress:

  • Added a "Definition of Terms" post on the front page
  • Debunked another Manaphy theory; looks like it doesn't have any requirements to appear (aside from being a sign of the apocolypse. ;) )
  • (Not posted yet) began categorizing pokemon into different relationships; still in its infancy.
  • Did a couple more tests on a different system; may impact results since I'm doing it on an alternative save file (stupid locked file...)

That's what I've done so far. In case anyone's wondering (or cares. Ha!), I've sampled over 4,000 pokeballs. And yes, this is a pathetic attempt for a bump. Sue me.
 

etrain911

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 9, 2007
Messages
92
Location
Michigan
Wow, you did your homework. If it helps I had an all pokeball/AT match on high and saw Suicune twice, Lugia once, Entei once, Kyogure (probably spelled it wrong) once, and no Deoxysis or Manaphy, or any reward pokemon or anything. I did get a lot of Bonslys, a few Gardevoir, and a lot of the pokemon that shoots leaves a lot. This was a 20 stock match on spear pillar. Come to think of it I never got a reward pokemon at all. Also I reccomend calling any pokemon that drops unlockables reward pokemon.
 

Maveritchell

Smash Rookie
Joined
Feb 24, 2008
Messages
16
You're basing this all off of 5 or 6 tests? Really?

Statistical accuracy, anyone? Please?

With the number of "invisible conditions" listed you'd need orders of magnitute more tests; also, things like "here's a rule but oh whoops it doesn't work all the time" (in regards to when Manaphy spawns) is totally bogus.

If I can throw the logic card in there, there's no real reason to have some sort of convoluted algorithm for what is essentially going to be viewed as an arbitrary event.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
You're basing this all off of 5 or 6 tests? Really?

Statistical accuracy, anyone? Please?

With the number of "invisible conditions" listed you'd need orders of magnitute more tests; also, things like "here's a rule but oh whoops it doesn't work all the time" (in regards to when Manaphy spawns) is totally bogus.

If I can throw the logic card in there, there's no real reason to have some sort of convoluted algorithm for what is essentially going to be viewed as an arbitrary event.
Look buddy, if you read enough you would find that I said one idea over and over: "I'm abstaining from drawing conclusions until I do at least 50 tests!"

Honestly, I don't mind you saying that if they were conclusions or even assumptions, but I've stated over and over that they are theories. Please do your homework before you accuse me of inaccurate publication.

About the algorithm thing: I totally agree that there was no reason for the programmers to set the frequencies of pokemon outside of "this is rare". However, I'm not researching what the programmers programmed. Rather, I'm studying how the pokemon ID generator works. theres no such thing as an absolutely random generation for computers, and it is even less random when they give the pokemon their rareness. So to sum it up, this is about the program, not the programmer.
 

Maveritchell

Smash Rookie
Joined
Feb 24, 2008
Messages
16
Look buddy, if you read enough you would find that I said one idea over and over: "I'm abstaining from drawing conclusions until I do at least 50 tests!"

Honestly, I don't mind you saying that if they were conclusions or even assumptions, but I've stated over and over that they are theories. Please do your homework before you accuse me of inaccurate publication.

About the algorithm thing: I totally agree that there was no reason for the programmers to set the frequencies of pokemon outside of "this is rare". However, I'm not researching what the programmers programmed. Rather, I'm studying how the pokemon ID generator works. theres no such thing as an absolutely random generation for computers, and it is even less random when they give the pokemon their rareness. So to sum it up, this is about the program, not the programmer.
Great to hear that you've got some idea of accuracy in mind, but it still begs the question: Why post about it? Ok, maybe you've got an idea that what you're posting could be completely off-the-wall, but reading through these posts you've got some people taking these as pseudo-legitimate. Even "theories" should have some basis, not just "I saw X happen after Y ergo Y leads to X."

It might be different, as would my tone, if you took the approach, "I think condition A causes Pokemon X to appear," in which case that's a single testable statement upon which you could base testing. Right now, though, what you've got going on is a variety of conditions with little rhyme or reason in terms of organization - in short you're testing too much at once and drawing potentially flimsy ideas from highly insufficient data.

What I might suggest is selecting a narrow group of conditions - maybe you think a certain thing causes Mew to appear. Test that. If you can prove, statistically, that your assumption was valid, then continue testing a new condition. However, if your tests disprove the "Mew condition," then you can by-and-large toss your overarching "theory," by virtue of disproving one of its components.

P.S. Random number generators are mathematical algorithms that usually use some sort of hardware variable (like a system clock) to get a base number to work through an equation. They don't take into account whatever the number's being generated for, so it's a pretty silly thought to think that a random generator cares whether you're computing for numbers 1-10 or whether it's choosing how often a Pokemon appears.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Great to hear that you've got some idea of accuracy in mind, but it still begs the question: Why post about it? Ok, maybe you've got an idea that what you're posting could be completely off-the-wall, but reading through these posts you've got some people taking these as pseudo-legitimate. Even "theories" should have some basis, not just "I saw X happen after Y ergo Y leads to X."

It might be different, as would my tone, if you took the approach, "I think condition A causes Pokemon X to appear," in which case that's a single testable statement upon which you could base testing. Right now, though, what you've got going on is a variety of conditions with little rhyme or reason in terms of organization - in short you're testing too much at once and drawing potentially flimsy ideas from highly insufficient data.

What I might suggest is selecting a narrow group of conditions - maybe you think a certain thing causes Mew to appear. Test that. If you can prove, statistically, that your assumption was valid, then continue testing a new condition. However, if your tests disprove the "Mew condition," then you can by-and-large toss your overarching "theory," by virtue of disproving one of its components.

P.S. Random number generators are mathematical algorithms that usually use some sort of hardware variable (like a system clock) to get a base number to work through an equation. They don't take into account whatever the number's being generated for, so it's a pretty silly thought to think that a random generator cares whether you're computing for numbers 1-10 or whether it's choosing how often a Pokemon appears.
I'm sorry it took so long to reply. I had just finish typing up the orginal reply and got booted from the network and I didn't say it. Ugh. Also, I'm sorry, but I have to do this:


Anyway, you're right. The theories are, and have never been meant as anything more than conjecture. Coincidences that I thought up while conducting the main test. Let me make one thing perfectly clear, though: the theories listed on the front page are not the fruits of my labor. There are more like rough indications ofcertain events to mull some folks over until I get the final thing done. I am not trying to use them to back up my actual findings (which I have not yet published), and if I came across that way, I apologize.

In regards to the RNG, I assume that you are suggesting that the game uses a pseudo-random formula with a time elasped since a certain date converted into an integer for a seed value? That makes since, but for one, how do you know that that is the seed value they used for the formula? Even if it is, that isn't what I'm trying to find. What I'm getting at with my main project here is to find the relative frequencies of a pokemon apppearing right after another, as well as overall in a match. Maybe if I do more tests I'll notice something else, but there are much higher chances of certain pokemon appearing after another than a different pokemon according to what I've gather so far. If you would like to take a look at my data to make sure I'm not bluffing or just trying to get attention by proposing a false idea, I'd be delighted to send anyone who asks the excel spreadsheet.

I would like to say one last thing before I conclude this post: are pokeballs truly random? Can order come out of chaos, just as chaos can come out of order? human beings are illogical, and yet we are able to produce logical information. Why is that any different for a mechanical system (feel free to make fun of me for that, it was pretty dorky)?
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
So there may be a reason that I got Munchlax 6 times in a row?
(If you are still reading, Ampleforth, this is a coincidence like I said)

Did you throw the pokeballs at someone? The game tends to give me garbage pokemon when I damage someone with the pokeball, not the pokemon. I can honestly never say I've had 6 consecutive Munchlax, or 6 consective pokemon at all, but if it can happen, I'll see it happen. I'm far from being finished here.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
I'd like to make a note of something that did not happen while I was conducting a test.

My little brother and I were playing Brawl today and we only had food, smash balls, and pokeballs on. Normally, Deoxys is a fairly rare pokemon. You usually will not see it more than once a day in normal play. However, in our little 5-stock matches (we played 3 in all), Deoxys appeared not once, not twice, but an incredible 5 times out of around 69 pokeballs. If the pokeball random number generator's seed value truely is based on time passed from a certain date/time, then today must be Deoxys day. Of course, this is merely conjectural, so don't take it to heart too much, but if you have not seen Deoxys come out of a pokeball in Brawl yet, now seems like the best time to do it.

On a side note, I completed 10 of my 50-100 tests and I am currently in the process of compilingthe information in a table to see which pokemon appear more after another one. This does not mean I am done doing tests. It just means that I may have a little something for you in the near future. Until then, happy smashing!
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Grr... (rant)

God, I hate macs. It was more of a strong dislike before today, but now I hate them with unparalleled intensity. I just had the most amazing test round I will probably ever have. In the first 15 pokeballs, 3 legendary pokemon appeared. In fact, they appeared about every 20 pokeballs after. Mananphy even appear TWICE within 6, yes, SIX pokeballs! When I was about 78% done, the *bleep*ing piece of *bleep* "unexpectedly quit" on me. So I am very, very, very POed right now, so sorry if I say anything offensive. Luckly, I was able to recover about half of the results, so I'll record it as test 9.5 for now. GAH! I wanna punch someone in the face right now (how delicously ironic that it's Smash Bros. related)!

Remember kids, ALWAYS SAVE YOUR WORK EVERY FEW SECONDS!

I'm gonna have a conniption...
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Urgent! Please read!

Okay, I need some external confirmation here on something and it must be done TODAY. It's not that tough; I just need you to play a standard stock brawl with just pokeballs (and preferably on high frequency). All I need you to record is this:

  • The date according to your Wii that you played the match
  • The number of times you see a legendary pokemon appear (See 3rd post for list, don't count togepi as one)
  • If you can, record the number of pokeballs that were used, not that appeared
  • The number of stocks set for the match
  • In addition to counting them as legendary, count reward pokemon seperately
  • The stage played on

The order they appeared in would be great too, but you don't have to do it if you don't want to. Remember, the test must be done today! You can post your results here or PM them to me when every you want, but the test must be done before the clock strikes 12.
 

Yoshistar64

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 16, 2007
Messages
279
Location
NY
Alright then.

Match 1:

5:05 PM
axaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaxaaaaaaxaa*
*The x is for legendary Pokemon, and the order they appeared in. 3 appeared.
*28 Pokemon appeared in total. Margin of error: 4
-4 stocks
-No reward Pokemon
-Smashville
-Pokeballs set on high

Match 2:

5:13 PM
axaaaaxaaaaxaaaaaaaaaaaaax*
*4 appeared. The interesting part was that all 4 of them were only Latias and Latios.
*26 Pokemon appeared. Margin of error: 2
-4 stocks
-No reward Pokemon
-Halberd
-Pokeballs set on high

Match 3:

5:21 PM
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaxaaaxaaa*
*2 appeared. Once again, only Latias and Latios appeared. Hah.
*24 Pokemon appeared. Margin of error: 2 There was a point where 3 Bonslys appeared in a row.
-5 stocks
-No reward Pokemon
-Port Town Aero Drive
-Pokeballs set on high

Thats about all. Hope I helped.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
I see, so it is that way... (manadtory extremely vague generic comment, sorry)


Anyway, thanks for the data. I'd still like a little more to support or disprove my theory, which I will disclose to you guys when I feel less lazy.
 

Yoshistar64

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 16, 2007
Messages
279
Location
NY
I see, so it is that way... (manadtory extremely vague generic comment, sorry)


Anyway, thanks for the data. I'd still like a little more to support or disprove my theory, which I will disclose to you guys when I feel less lazy.
Honestly, the Latios and Latias thing made me drop my jaw. Do you have any ideas on what triggered it?
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Honestly, the Latios and Latias thing made me drop my jaw. Do you have any ideas on what triggered it?
Yes, actually, I do. If I tell you, you won't hold me to it if I tell you though, right? I'm still only about 19% done with my research, so I don't want to say anything for certain.
 

Yoshistar64

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 16, 2007
Messages
279
Location
NY
Yes, actually, I do. If I tell you, you won't hold me to it if I tell you though, right? I'm still only about 19% done with my research, so I don't want to say anything for certain.
Ah, okay, take your time, and good luck.
 

Project Occasus

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jul 11, 2007
Messages
63
This is interesting. I shall contribute.

Pokeballs only on High
5 stock standard brawl FFA
Me(luigi) and 3 random level 5s
Stage: Final Destination

Legend:
(L) latios/latias
(G) Metagross
(M)Manaphy
(K) Kyogre
(H) Ho-oh
(a) those not mentioned


aaaaaLaLaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaGaMGaaaaaKaa

Legendaries( in order):
latias(thrown at enemy CPU by me),
latais(thrown at ground by me, two pokeballs after last legendary)
Metagross(thrown by me)
Manaphy(thrown at ground by me)
Metagross(Thrown at ground by me while I was switched with Zelda CPU)
Kyogre(thrown forward to the ground by me)

Comments: I threw in Metagross for specifics just in case. I got the majority of pokeballs, but not all of them. about 30% of the time I hit my enemies with the pokeball. Lots of Gulpins during the match. And my wii is set for April 5th, nearing 9 PM.

I'll do another test.

Edit: did the next test.

Same settings and stage, etc. Only differences are that the randoms ended up as different characters, of course.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaHaaaaaaHaaaaaaaLa

Ho-oh(thrown by CPU. Seemingly hit no one)
Ho-oh(enemy CPU threw it up into the air, and I caught it and threw it down to the ground. Robbed!)
Latias(Thrown at the last CPU by me)

Comments: After the second Ho-oh, I got two goldeens in a row. However, I never noticed any other aspects of my pokemon getting worse and worse. Most likely a coincidence.

Incase anyone is wondering, the Legendaries that are not listed in my legend (like groudon and Entei) are not listed because I didnt encounter them. Not because I don't consider them legendary.
 

1170

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Mar 4, 2008
Messages
113
Location
Willamette Valley
Although I can't offer any hard evidence (forgot to record), I did do this and noticed a lot of latias/latios today.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Well, since the day is up I guess I'll tell you what I thought was going on. But first, an anecdote that will make things much easier to understand.

Okay, so earlier today, I was playing with my little bro with all items on and medium frequency. It was the same deal: me as Mario and him as Lucario/Metaknight, on a basic stage like battlefield, and with 5 or so stock. Now, I'm sure a lot of you have noticed how rare legendary pokemon beside latias and latios are , right? Under normal circumstances, I'd say that you'd only see one legendary out of, say, 50 or so pokeballs, and even then it would probably be more common legendary pokemon rather than a reward pokemon or something like Ho-Oh or Deoxys). But here's the thing: within our first 15 pokeballs, 7 were legendary! This continued throughout the match and we even saw Manaphy appear within the first 50 pokeballs, a rare occurance indeed. After the match ended (I'll leave how it turned out up to your imaginations for now), I thought, "wow, what an amazing round! Probably won't see another one like that for quite some time!" But I did! Next round, in fact! And the next one! And the one after that! It was incredible! All of my matches on that day had an inconceivable number of legendary spawns relative to their normal appearance rate! So I was thinking, "Hey, I've never had luck this good. What if it has something to do with the date?" It made sense to me, since a good random seed for a random number generator is time elasped from a certain date and/or time into an integer value. Since it seemed to work the whole day for me, I believe it's based more off the date than the time.

That's why I acted so urgent. I need the results on the same day or it'd be like comparing apples to oranges (only far less tasty :p). It's too soon to say for certain, but if the seed value for the random number generator that governs the pokemon appearances truely follows the method mention above, and it was based off times elapsed from an absolute date and/or time, then we all would have noticed a surge in legendary pokemon to throughout March 6th, 2008. Since this is apparently not the case, I see four possiblities:

1) The seed value for the random number generator is not time elased from a static and/or absolute date and time; it either varies from person to person (i.e. Since the update needed to play Brawl) or it changes every time you play (i.e. power-on time).
2) The game yields better pokemon as you use more pokeballs (no offense guys, nut I highly doubt any of you have used as many pokeballs in Brawl as I have).
3) The observations made by YoshiStar64, Project Occasus, and myself were made at different reference times, changing the time elapsed from the seed value's point of measurement (the date/time elapsed from), but I doubt this is the case, since my good fortune lasted all day.
4) Not enough pokeballs were thrown by YoshiStar64 and Project Occasus to get a decent amount of legendary pokemon, but again, I highly doubt this is the case, since they would have noticed an unlikely spawn outside of the tests and I'm sure they would of made a note of it.

Well there you have it. Looks like I'll have to look into this some more. By the way, for whatever reason, my gave just doesn't want to give me any reward pokemon lately, so I haven't seen one for a while.
 

pirkid

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 26, 2006
Messages
1,254
Location
¿¡ Canada ¿¡
Ugh, i'm such an idiot. How do I delete the 3 spam posts by myself with editing (because when I just delete all the text it says it's too short of a message and there isn't a delete button) or can I ask a moderator that isn't a moderator on this board (since the ones that are currently are all offline) to delete them for me? Mock me if you must while you answer my question.
Don't worry about it, thread makers do it all the time.

Anyways, I'll test some of this out myself when I'm bored. Looks really interesting.
 

UTDZac

▲▲▲▲▲
BRoomer
Joined
Sep 28, 2005
Messages
6,646
Location
Judgment Count: 856
on a side note and not sure how useful this will be, but i've logged several 100hrs of playtime (most of which w/o items on) but i'd gauge about 1/5 of it with items (including pokeballs) on. Given all this time, i've never seen a Manaphy. I completely forgot the thing exists until now.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Given all this time, i've never seen a Manaphy. I completely forgot the thing exists until now.

Heh heh, yeah, I remember when the first time I tried to find a Manaphy. I'm not lying when I say you have almost no chance of seeing one unless you play a decent length game and you see all three of the reward pokemon once, if not twice. I almost was ready to swear at that stupid munchlax everyime it appeared instead of Manaphy! Once you see one, though, it become more common little by little. Remember that if Heart Swap will only work if you are within a certain range, so if you want to avoid it, run to the off-screen side of the stage (if it does'nt mean a KO). Then again, I just go for the heart swap masqurade for a little bit and since I almost always end up Heart Swaping with Peach (go figure), the last few seconds I jump off the stage and float directly underneath the stage until the Heart Swap expires so that the Peach I Heart Swapped with has absolutely zero chance of recovery XD. I'm an *** that way :).
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
Just out of curiousity, how many of you are actually waiting for me to come out with my resullts and methods? It gets a bit monotonous after a while and if no one cares, I rather not waste my breath/time/etc. However, if you guys actually give two bits about what I'm doing here, just post something here. I need all the motivation I can get (pathetic, isn't it?)! Also if you do post in response to this, name the top 5 pokemon you would like to be able to predict (50 bucks says that you'll all choose the same pokemon for your top 3).
 

Project Occasus

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jul 11, 2007
Messages
63
I'm quite interested to see what you find. Out of curiosity, how much testing have you done? Simply because I'm interested in knowing the scale of your testing.

As for pokemon that could be predicted, I'd of course like to see the reward pokemon, but also Manaphy just because it's so rare, and perhaps some assorted other legendary pokes.
 

Raym

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
183
Location
Santiago, Chile
All are downthrowed from the center of Final Destination.

Bellosom,Meowth,Wobbuffet,Gulpin,Gulpin,Bellosom,Gulpin.Wobbuffet,Gardevoir,Goldeen,Togepi,
Piplup,Gulpin,Wobbuffet,Bonsly,Electrode(delayed),Bonsly,Lugia,Gardevoir,Wobbuffet,Goldeen,Munchlax,Togepi,Meowth,Gulpin,Latias,Snorlax,Ho-oh,Goldeen,Gulpin,Wobbuffet,Snorlax,Metagross,
Metagross,Munchlax,Munchlax,Bonsly,Piplup,Weavile,Piplup,Electrode,Bellosom,Manaphy(failed),
Chikorita,Gulpin,Wobbuffet,Staryu,Piplup,Metagross,Meowth,Gulpin,Goldeen,Snorlax,Latias,Bonsly,Bellosom,Bonsly,Chikorita,Electrode,Torchic,Snorlax,Goldeen,Metagross,Staryu,Snorlax,Gardevoir,Munchlax,Bellosom,Staryu,Goldeen,Gulpin,Torchic,Bonsly,Latias,Bonsly,Togepi,Bonsly,Munchlax,Bonsly,Bonsly,Snorlax,Groudon,Weavile,Chikorita,Meowth,Piplup,Gulpin,Togepi,Snorlax,Chikorita,Snorlax,Bellosom,Staryu,Groudon,Wobbuffet,Weavile,Torchic,Staryu,Piplup,Bonsly,Wobbuffet,Latios,Munchlax,Weavile,Wobbuffet,Munchlax,Chikorita,Bellosom,Bellosom,Weavile,Manaphy,Gulpin,Torchic,Torchic,Meowth,Chikorita,Metagross,Goldeen,Suicune,Chikorita,Piplup,Wobbuffet,Chikotita,Chikorita,Togepi,Piplup,Gardevoir,Munchlax,Bonsly,Meowth,Bonsly,Bonsly,Staryu,Wobbuffet,Goldeen,Weavile,Togepi,Latios,Gulpin,Wobbuffet,Deoxys,Latios,Bellosom,Gulpin,Latias,Gardevoir,Electrode,Staryu,Bonsly,Bonsly,Bellosom,Goldeen,Staryu,Meowth,Staryu,Metagross,Weavile,Goldeen,Meowth,Gulpin,Electrode,Torchic,Metagross,Munchlax,Metagross,Latias,Meowth,Wobbuffet,Metagross,Electrode,Chikorita,Torchic,Chikorita,Goldeen,Goldeen,Munchlax,Torchic,Chikorita,Goldeen,Deoxys,Wobbuffet,Staryu,Piplup

n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Lugia),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latias),n,l(Ho-oh),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Manaphyfailed),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latias),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latias),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Groudon),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Groudon),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latios),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Manaphy),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Suicune),n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latios),n,n,l(Deoxys),l(Latios),n,n,l(Latias)n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Latias)n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,n,l(Deoxys),n,n,n.

Bonsly 16
Wobbuffet 14
Gulpin 14
Goldeen 13
Chikorita 11
Munchlax 10
Staryu 10
Bellosom 10
Meowth 9
Piplup 9
Metagross 9
Snorlax 8
Torchic 8
Weavile 7
Togepi 6
Electrode 6
Gardevoir 5
Latias 5
Latios 3
Deoxys 2
Manaphy 2
Groudon 2
Lugia 1
Ho-oh 1

I hope this helps.
 

itsameSMB

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
332
Location
Sheboygan, WI
[a lot of data]
I hope this helps.
I'll say it does! Nice work! I just a have a question or two about the test, because I may just include it in my data compilation which I will use in my analysis.

1) What characters were used, and what outfits did they have on(original=1)?
2) Where there any computer-controlled characters and if there were, which slot did they control and what level were they?
3) What mode where you in (Standard Brawl, Special Brawl, or Training)?
4) What was the rule (time, stock, coin) and what was it set to (starting stock/time)?
5) What items were on and what was the item spawn frequency?
 

Raym

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
183
Location
Santiago, Chile
I'll say it does! Nice work! I just a have a question or two about the test, because I may just include it in my data compilation which I will use in my analysis.

1) What characters were used, and what outfits did they have on(original=1)?
2) Where there any computer-controlled characters and if there were, which slot did they control and what level were they?
3) What mode where you in (Standard Brawl, Special Brawl, or Training)?
4) What was the rule (time, stock, coin) and what was it set to (starting stock/time)?
5) What items were on and what was the item spawn frequency?
1) I was using Mario and the second player was Bowser(The second player wasn't controlled)
And the two used original outfits
2) No i don't used CPUs
3) Standard Brawl
4) Time (infinite)
5) Pokeballs only (high)
 
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