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Just FYI, I'm on holidays between now and next Wednesday so my activity will probably be mostly in the evenings during this time as I'll be doing Spring Break stuff with my boys during the day. Much easier to play mafia when I'm working
I think the possible partners for Tattertot are basically somi or Swiss. If Tatter is scum with someone outside of those pairings, I would be very surprised.
Do these two partner choices fulfill the reasons you gave before? Because I was thinking of two other players that might fulfill the conditions you laid out, and I’m interested if you eliminated them for other reasons.
But regardless, I don't see what fairness has to do with anything. I don't try to be fair in evaluating people. I try to be right. In Apex mafia I read bessie as mafia, correctly, off of a single post on page 1. I did the same for z25 in SS mafia. If I can figure out someone's alignment based off of minimal information, so much the better as it means I can focus more of my attention on people who are ambiguous.
We don’t need a majority to yeet, it will be whomever has the most votes at end of day. This is different than the usual rules on this site, but very common for my home site.
I expected votes being new because new players are easy day 1 votes and because like its been stated a few times before new players are hard to read which makes them good suspects as well.
Last stop is #158 where he asks what a Ninja does. I might be reading too much into this but how does this question come from an experienced player and why does it come 2 days after game has started? Is Swiss that much unaware of the setup? Why did he not ask what an 'Atheist' was? The top 2 results in Google link to wiki.mafiascum.net and mafiauniverse.com and are both very different from the sense that I used it in my first post. To me this all is inconsistent with a town player who is genuinely interested in the setup.
Why didn't you bring this up immediately when I said I sussed ranmaru? Why wait until I presented my case when you're not even reflecting to the case itself?
I have played a few. Only one game where he was scum. I'm not sure how this is relevant to your scumread of Somi since you never stated meta points in your read. So my point about your read being un-fair is not taking into account meta. If there is, then you should show that.
I'm sure there are plenty of examples of this. I'm not saying it's entirely wrong, just incomplete, and is therefore unlikely to produce accurate reads of me.
ranmaru
: why does Boom's position invalidate your case against Ninja? If you were convinced earlier that those signs point to scum!Ninja, how do you explain them coming from Town?
In Oasis you decided that Boom was scum because of his position on Ninja and thereby concluded that Ninja was town. Here you're dropping your case on Swiss without any outside interference.
In Oasis you decided that Boom was scum because of his position on Ninja and thereby concluded that Ninja was town. Here you're dropping your case on Swiss without any outside interference.
I re-evaluated Tattertot in my #216. Then, when Tattertot comes in and re-ignites my belief that he is scum, I cross out Swiss as scum, since I believe Laser and Tattertot are scum individually, and via association, therefore Swiss wouldn't fit as scum to me in my mind.
Will give my re-evaluated reads on them once Laser gives his answers to my questions and his updated reads. I believe Tattertot is scum, and one of Swiss/Laser to be scum. I am more confident on Tattertot being scum.
Why didn't you bring this up immediately when I said I sussed ranmaru? Why wait until I presented my case when you're not even reflecting to the case itself?
Swiss starts the game with #11, a question about how the Vig works. We have 4 main possibilities:
1. Swiss is Vig. The question is genuine because the setup does not explicitly say whether it is Day-Vig or Night. Nobody reacts, he does not get a public answer so he probably asked the mod in private after some time.
My main issue with this scenario is that we received our role-pm well in advance, so why did he not ask this in private immediately upon seeing the role he got? Why wait a day and draw attention to it?
2. Swiss is Vig, but the question is not genuine. He's doing a play by claiming it either because he wants Doc-protection or because he wants to trick scum into thinking that the Vig can't be him (or possibly another reason that didn't occur to me).
In the first case he would be able to admit the purpose when I ask him about it #169 and it wouldn't be such a secret that he would need to ignore me constantly.
In the second case he should be on the lookout precisely for the very obvious role-fishing that I'm doing but he somehow never raises this point against me.
3. Swiss is scum. He tests the waters with #11, hoping to draw out a comment that would indicate to him the actual Vig if it exists. If questioned later it is easy to brush off #11 by claiming it was to protect the actual Vig or draw the NK to a VT or anything similar. Also there's a good 50% chance that no Vig exists in which case he can continue the gambit.
In this case he can't actually answer my question in #169 and is forced to ignore it.
4. Swiss is Town but not Vig. His reason for doing the gambit is something already described above. Again, he should be interested in my role-fishing but is not. Also, this is a very risky play because an inexperienced player might counter-claim Vig or an experienced player who is actual Vig (and has more restraint than me to not to get into a fight) might try to shoot him which has negative expected value even if he gets saved by Doc.
“Accuse Your Enemy Of What You Are Doing, As You Are Doing It To Create Confusion”
This idea or one of its many variations is attributed to a lot of famous/infamous people in history, it has been an effective tool in propaganda. 2 examples from this game:
in #88 he says I'm 'very keen to character assassinate'. People know that I don't do personal insults, I'm not the one who calls the other to have an 'inflated ego' (#114), or calling them a 'peacock' (#114, #264).
he accuses me of jumping to a conclusion (again #114, in response to me saying that he is not interested in my answers). What he fails to acknowledge is that he did the same in #67-#68 where he came to a conclusion before giving me any chance to respond. Also, as it turns out my conclusion was right, he really wasn't interested in what I had to say, as evidenced by #88, #92 and #124. To reiterate for the final time, he never answered my #93 and #120, he just brushed it off.
Last stop is #158 where he asks what a Ninja does. I might be reading too much into this but how does this question come from an experienced player and why does it come 2 days after game has started? Is Swiss that much unaware of the setup? Why did he not ask what an 'Atheist' was? The top 2 results in Google link to wiki.mafiascum.net and mafiauniverse.com and are both very different from the sense that I used it in my first post. To me this all is inconsistent with a town player who is genuinely interested in the setup.
This take on Swiss is very reasonable. Did you just vote Ranmaru for shock value? Your case on Swiss seems much more complete and your points on Ran are heavily by-association to Swiss.
Let's talk about ranmaru next.
In #122 he has issues with how I'm not pushing Swiss hard. We know from the many examples he brought against LaserGuy that he has either notes or good memory of other players' (perceived) style, so why does he not remember that we had this discussion before, for example in Oasis Mafia. I simply don't push as hard as I used to, mainly because I'm spending less time on the game than previously. The same goes for the point regarding me not making reads early. Last but no least we have "Yet scumleaning me for it, when he knows I'll be able to deliver, is weak." I feel this is an overreaction, I know that he is able to deliver later but why can't I form an opinion based on the fact that he hasn't done it so far?
The point where I got my first impression of a buddy-buddy relationship with Swiss was #122-#130. Obviously when you have only 2 people contributing then the result will be a similar conversation, especially when they had previous history. However the whole tone of that seemed too casual to me, with no tension between 2 players who should be questioning the other's motives.
Finally we jump to #216. At first I thought that scum had little reason to shake up the status quo, except if the status quo would likely lead to their demise. So if ranmaru were to be scum then his partner would be Heury who was in most danger to be yeeted. However he backtracked quite quickly on Swiss in #250 and #254 and what I also find interesting is that he presented the connection between LaserGuy and Tattertot as the main reasons, something he did not look into between LaserGuy and Swiss in #216.
I'm less convinced of this one. I spent a lot of time thinking about scum!Ran today, and I just don't see it. I think Town!Ran is basically Town!you of 2018.
Do these two partner choices fulfill the reasons you gave before? Because I was thinking of two other players that might fulfill the conditions you laid out, and I’m interested if you eliminated them for other reasons.
Ran - Very unlikely. I don't think scum!Ran would push a buddy this hard, and I think Ran would probably try to improve Tatter's content
bessie - Very unlikely. I think bessie would try to improve Tatter's content.
Sabrar - Very unlikely. I think Sabrar would try to improve Tatter's content.
heury - Unlikely. I think Heury would probably consider advising Tatter to lean into weirdness or at least let him do his own thing. Or was not present and they never discussed strategy at all. But I don't think heury would go all in on bussing on D1 though.
somitomi - Possible. Not present for early D1 so Tatter left to position himself. I don't know how comfortable somitomi would be coaching as mafia.
Swiss - Possible. I don't know enough about him to say for sure, but he seems like the kind of player who might encourage Tatter to lean into his newbieness. Has advocated for Tatter as Town.
Deadbananas - I just think DB is Town and honestly never really considered him as a possibility. Thinking on it now, DB is fairly new and probably would be uncomfortable coaching a buddy, so I guess I can't explicitly rule him out.
Still a weak Town lean. I haven't really seen all that much to affect my read here. Is there anything in particular that you would like to me respond to of his?
Somitomi:
My experience is that Somi tends to be more snarky and off-the-cuff in his commentary as Town, and his posting more polished as mafia. His posting is more consistent with the latter, so I still lean scum. As I said earlier, I was curious if my voting him would lead to a Town-meta comment, but he demurred.
I'm not sure I can give you an example of a game where I had no confidence, as either alignment. As I already said, in two of my recent Town games, I had a strong scum ping on page 1 and played accordingly. But have there been games where I haven't had a solid scumread on page 5? Almost for sure.
This take on Swiss is very reasonable. Did you just vote Ranmaru for shock value? Your case on Swiss seems much more complete and your points on Ran are heavily by-association to Swiss.
I'm less convinced of this one. I spent a lot of time thinking about scum!Ran today, and I just don't see it. I think Town!Ran is basically Town!you of 2018.
Outside of association I also have my doubts about ranmaru and I agree with your assessment. However as explained earlier I don't necessarily think that Swiss is the correct yeet today because he might resolve himself by D2. So I went with ranmaru, obviously shock value has its own merits but it was not that huge of a consideration.
You are still evading the question. Imagine 2 scenarios, 1 where Heury claims no power and 1 where he claims 1-shot Watcher. How will your play today be different in each of the scenarios?
Ok, but I still don't recall seeing anyone do this before. Town may go easier into that good night, but that doesn't mean running into it headfirst with more than a day and a half left.
I have played a few. Only one game where he was scum. I'm not sure how this is relevant to your scumread of Somi since you never stated meta points in your read. So my point about your read being un-fair is not taking into account meta. If there is, then you should show that.
I have played a few. Only one game where he was scum. I'm not sure how this is relevant to your scumread of Somi since you never stated meta points in your read. So my point about your read being un-fair is not taking into account meta. If there is, then you should show that.
My experience is that Somi tends to be more snarky and off-the-cuff in his commentary as Town, and his posting more polished as mafia. His posting is more consistent with the latter, so I still lean scum. As I said earlier, I was curious if my voting him would lead to a Town-meta comment, but he demurred.
Should be going out now, be back in a bit I shouldn't be long. In the mean time I would like to see bessie
give explanations to her reads and outline who she wants to vote and why.
Tattertot is the easy vote today. It's a guarantee town win if they flip scum. I just don't see anyone other than swiss or somitomi being their scum partner.
D2 plan if Tattertot is mafia:
Swiss uses vig shot on either me or somi. If this happens, lynch the other (of me and somi). If no vig shot is used, lynch swiss.
Worse case scenario, tattertot flips town, swiss should still use vig shot d2 to clear themself, and scum is among swiss, somi, and laserguy.
Swiss said he would use his vig shot the next day. Either way, he should claim to confirm, cuz if it is a night ability, he should use it tonight. Do we know if we get the flip of that day's lynch at beginning of night phase?
