Wam's Chaos Game Thread

[LaserGuy]

Not loving that vote by Swiss.

Vote: Tattertot

I will be around for another hour or so.

 

[Sabrar]

Vote: Swiss

I'm good for now, will revisit later.

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar I note you have doubts about me, and I want to re-hash that conversation. I think it's imperative that you and I work together, and seeing from this page this also solidifies my town read of you. I am almost done with my reads list.

 

[Swiss]

Funny you say that Ran he’s gone down in my reads.

Not omgus

 

[ranmaru]

I have horrible timing.

 

[Sabrar]

I'm here for an hour, we can talk about anything you want.

 

[osieorb18]

Vote count - 5 votes to lynch

Tattertot - 3 - Ranmaru, Heury Alone, LaserGuy
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar

Deadline 12 pm GMT Sunday 21st in about 4 hours: Countdown Timer
ti

 

[LaserGuy]

osieorb18
I'm listed twice on your VC. I am only voting for Tattertot.

 

[osieorb18]

osieorb18
I'm listed twice on your VC. I am only voting for Tattertot.

Fixed

 

[ranmaru]

GAME WINNING READSGAME WINNING READSGAME WINNING READS

Deadbananas - Town and continues to be reviewing his reads and asking others to see his view on his Heury ISO which I find town indicative.

Sabrar - No change in read. I think he genuinely believes Swiss is scum, and he's scumhunting from that belief. He has conviction, and has been tunneling Swiss. His thought process also seems genuine. I also like his #463 outlining that Somitomi is just giving a simple quip and mentioning that Bessie is looking too hard. As I'm writing this Sabrar posts #466 which is also showing genuine thought process regarding Bessie using the word 'evolve'.

Somitomi - I think his thought process is sound, although making mistakes. Yet when he does make a mistake, he is able to show that he has had a genuine thought. (Heury Alone read) I also see some original thought, which is different compared to his scum game where he'd base his scumreads on consensus, and mess up the order of scum read strength. His catch up was lackluster but I don't find that scum indactive, just lazy. I think that if he were scum, he'd actually be more apparent since he'd be rushing to get content in and make bigger mistakes that would show his motivations. I find his observation of Bessie also to be townie, due to the aspect of discovery. Bessie has not been tunneling, although she marks Somitomi as her dedicated tunnel. (Essentially he noted a discrepency with her behavior here and from her normal town game) I also like his quip to LaserGuy in #394 for having lack of response to his #275. Shows he is paying attention. Town Lean.

I also believe this quote is a satisfactory response to LaserGuy:

Snark from somitomi is good to see. No response to my vote and the uninspiring wooden responses we've seen otherwise is not so good.

Also, that was my reaction to four votes (out of seven) and an explicit suggestion to hammer, not a single vote which didn't get much momentum afterwards. I took this one as an attempt to pressure and apparently it didn't bother me much.

HeuryAlone - From DeadBananas ISO, I think the only point he has on him is that his scumread of Tattertot was reactive and hedge. On his point that he used self meta that applies here, we don't know how 'doesn't try' actually measures up since we have no examples of his town games compared to his scum games. I also believe stating that self meta early in the game shoots himself in the foot, and don't think it has scum mindset behind it. (Scum will want to survive and not hurt their own chances of being read incorrectly) Other than that I don't see a compelling case to lynch Heury Alone. The inactivity was cleared up as he returned. Null-town.

Swiss - This was the most difficult read. Sabrar's question to me made me doubt my read that he was Lazy town, due to his insistance on discrediting my play. However, I don't see any scum motive for him to do so. (As it was in reference to my Tattertot read) I also do think he is re-evaluating by now. #264 I don't know his timezone (as he states, I do not remember) So I thought he was remaining static to remain static. I also do like that he says that if he were wrong on someone, it would be Laser. I think him being unhelpful is more of a playstyle, and even a old philosophy of Dgames, and not so much a reason to point toward scum motivation. Of course I'm not entirely confident but I think a player like Swiss, we will have a better time of reading with the pushes they choose. Low Town-lean.
---

Tattertot - I'm going back on this read again. I think his lack of reaction to my vote, and him forgetting Laser in his scum reads are most telling. His cautiousness is also a concern. However, I don't think he fits in a two-man team, unless I am wrong on one of Bessie/Laser. I'm going to be putting him as null-scum because I have too many concerns with his play at this time.

Bessie -

There is no interaction from Bessie towards my slot on her part through out the whole game unless I prod her with a question. #235 #361 (#291)
In addition, lack of response to some of my questions to her. (About reads and her vote)
She has little progression on Somi before she places him as her dedicated tunnel in #249. (#213 in her #235, #306 in her #361)
Her tone is off in #441 and #443.
She asks her scumread to re-evaluate his avatar stance, not wording you use toward a scumread.
She also hedges while having him placed as her dedicated tunnel. Lack of conviction.
Does not use 'town lean' in reference to her town read of me, and instead uses 'will self-resolve'.

Spoiler: Bessie Context

Ranmaru: Not on my yeet list for today. Ranmaru will self-resolve as the game progresses. I moved him down on my Woof-Grr list because I am pondering his “Laserguy lacks conviction” argument and the timing.

Now this is odd. In her #441, she has me as second town to DeadBananas. Yes this is how she describes it. She never mentions the word 'town lean'. It's so odd that she'd mention I'd self resolve while she has me high in her town list, she should have reasoning to support this but she doesn't feel the need to explain.

I don't put much stock into avatars, but that's a matter of opinion.

You’ve totally missed the point (or did you??). This wasn’t a random pic, and it wasn’t selected pre-game, like how I changed my avatar to "Happy Bessie" before the game started. Tattertot selected a cat avatar to breadcrumb town. Please reevaluate.

Now, before this post, the only progression she has towards Somitomi is her stating he missed the point. (Then hedging to imply that he deliberately missed the point) Notice that she tells him to please re-evaluate. That's not something you say to your for sure scum-read.

@somitomi, why did you not react to my #434 in your #435, when it is obvious I was preparing a case on you?

I think the latter does not hold when she said 'please re-evaluate'.

---

Now let us proceed with Bessie's Lack of interaction with my slot:

This weekend is me and my girlfriend's anniversary of dating, so I'm going to have pretty limited hours of play starting friday afternoon for the rest of the day phase.

I officially approve of this reason for limited activity (but please try to be around toward end of day)!

Just FYI, I'm on holidays between now and next Wednesday so my activity will probably be mostly in the evenings during this time as I'll be doing Spring Break stuff with my boys during the day. Much easier to play mafia when I'm working

I officially approve of this reason for limited activity!

FYI tomorrow morning I will be getting my covid vaccine (Saturday 9AM EST). Shouldn't be long though.

Nothing in response. (Also by the way the line was way too long so I skipped) This isn't game content, but it's the easiest way to see that she is responding to statements of being away, yet only likes my post and intentionally ignores it.

So you see, at first I thought this was a personal decision. It didn't hit me until her reads list that this may be scum motivated. It just seemed odd that she'd intentionally ignore my slot while having me as top town for most of the game. I was mostly directing questions to her and there were times she had not responded.

In Short, her tone seemed fine, however it was a temporary town lean until she showed that her content would match the tone, and it does not. Her tone in her reads list matches her scum meta. She lacks conviction and uses the term 're-evaluate' toward a scumread, and the term 'will self resolve' to describe a strong town read. Also has lack of interactions with my slot unless prodded from my side. Lack of responses to some of my questions towards her.

LaserGuy -

The confidence point still applies.
#178 He pressure votes Somi with an incorrect meta interpretation, and when Somi points this out, Laser doesn't address it.
#190 His Somitomi read does not refer to his vote on Somi. His read is weak and also un-fair when you account for the fact Somi was catching up.
#252 He now questions Somi why he didn't react.
#275 Lack of response to Somi's #275. Does not line up with his desire to be accurate as outlined in his #260.
#380 He gives a much different meta definition for Somi, when he has given a seperate description of Somi's meta in Midnight OP. (He was mafia when he mentioned this though, however he gave it as a response to townleaning him [Somitomi was Town] there, and having seen his scum game and correctly reading him as scum, I feel it was accurate, compare to the meta interpretation he gives this game while scumleaning him)

somitomi is mostly a meta read. I've played with him a fair bit on xkcd before. As Town he's usually very cautious in making reads and evaluations of people, but this shouldn't be taken as a sign of scumminess, especially not this early in the game. It takes him some time to figure things out. He tends to struggle a lot more as mafia and is usually quite transparent.

My experience is that Somi tends to be more snarky and off-the-cuff in his commentary as Town, and his posting more polished as mafia. His posting is more consistent with the latter, so I still lean scum. As I said earlier, I was curious if my voting him would lead to a Town-meta comment, but he demurred.

In short, Laser lacks confidence, and in turn, his scumreads are also weak and a stretch. His lack of response to Somi also shows that he has no desire to correctly determine Somi's alignment and instead simply push for him using faulty meta. When prompted to respond, he states he still doesn't see enough snark, which isn't a satisfactory response to Somi.

 

[ranmaru]

TOWN [DeadBananas > Sabrar > Somitomi > Swiss > HeuryAlone | Tattertot > LaserGuy > Bessie] SCUM

Unvote; Vote: Bessie

 

[ranmaru]

My current belief is that the only players right now that can win for town is myself, Sabrar, and Swiss. To a lesser extent, Somi and Deadbananas.

 

[ranmaru]

This is why I said we must talk, because I now see that you are stuck in a tunnel Sabrar. I now believe that Sabrar v Swiss is TvT. It is my duty to pull you out of this tunnel. Otherwise, I believe town will be splintered. A splintered town is how mafia wins.

 

[ranmaru]

Now. I am going to 1v2 Bessie and Laser. From here on out, if I change my read, Lynch me. If One of Bessie / Laser flips town, lynch me. If Somitomi flips scum, lynch me.

 

[ranmaru]

Now I am open as a book to talk about any doubts you have about me Sabrar. Also please look at my reads list, and tell me your conclusion.

 

[ranmaru]

Also, I was in Complete Vanilla Mafia. I pushed Somi there when he was scum. So this isn't his scum game from that game.

 

[Sabrar]

I developed some reservations regarding bessie but not enough to participate in her yeet from scratch while she's absent. I also debated a LaserGuy-bessie pair but I doubt that they would commit to the same wagon (somi) while neither of them was in any danger.
I'm probably okay with you being town, I can obviously see that my Swiss-read might be coming from a tunnel due to different playstyles. However I've seen enough mistakes in your game-winning reads to make me reconsider, particularly since you keep changing them.

I'm not a fan of #494, noone should have that much confidence, like ever.

I'm not 'comfortable' with any particular yeet, I would be happy with Swiss and okay-ish with Tattertot. I can accept LaserGuy as well but that's a safety net due to me not being able to read him.

 

[ranmaru]

I'm willing to bank it all on this read. Don't think I've ever been this confident. Fair enough on you seeing my mistakes. That's understandable. At the very least I got this out there, and hope it gets you thinking. If needed I'll get back on Tattertot, but I want Bessie if we can get the numbers. I think they don't expect Somi to be the lynch so would be comfortable sitting on that together, however Laser moved when Swiss voted Somi, since it became the leading wagon.

 

[Sabrar]

Swiss : now that you no longer claim to be Vig you might want to answer why you thought claiming it was a good idea in the first place.

 

[Swiss]

At this point, unlikely a scum is voting for their scum buddy imo. Worth remembering.

old
DeadBananas
Tattertot
Sabrar
Laserguy
Ranmaru
Somitomi
Bessie
HueryAlone
Swiss

#268 Laughed out loud at my own post

#270 HeuryAlone If I was claiming vig why would you want me lynched toDay
Don't understand the tattertot push either
Heury Tatter unlikely buddies

#278 Sabrar's genuine dislike of me shining through, townlean on that
+townlean sabrar

#287 Somi - Undecided on. Could be genuine but he didnt have to look far to see he was wrong. Potential Heury derail

#292 And people still thought I was vig, okey dokey

#293 Somi very clear they dont want to be associated with Heury, could be genuine though

#298 eagle eyes by Heury

#305 + ve DB and Ran

#307 Does Sabrar really believe vig claim. I doubt it. So why this post
-sabrar

#313 Laser good meta on somi not buddies

Ran v Laser to be rememebred

#326 Heury doesnt push Tatter when he has the chance, scum could well have
+townlean Heury

#343 Actually reading the game and checking
+townlean sabrar

#350 Sabrar - Ran/Swiss case relies so heavily on association it's near useless. Why go to the bother?

#351 I googled atheist, no idea why it mattered

#361 Bessie on me re: reads list, I like
Against claiming baffles me but okey dokey
There is no atheist in this game, unless I have skimmed much more than I usually do
Can't get over her empty posts before, really bad stuff

#363 HeuryAlone exactly what do you mean here? You and bessie have the same wincon? different?

No idea what all this boomfrog stuff is.

#377 mindmeld

#380 Laser town

#384 not sure about that swiss

#387 Terrible crumb

#397/99 Heury townlean

#407 Tatter likes my post, but does nothing. Dislike

#411 Heury has Laser as null/scum which I like as a hot take

#413 3rd or 4th not vig crumb Sabrar you really are blind

#414 Bessie - I like first half of post. Not sure why I would care about his illegal vote or why it would matter as a scum play. And no your post ddnt stop me tunnelling clearly.
re: flip good point Wam does flip happen post lynch or next day?
I assume end of day

#415 Heury is pushing Tatter a bit

#424 self prez by Somi. Their best push is on me, but the reasoning is NAI
dislike somi

#427 Saying it as likely the oldest player in the forum, nice one

#429 I like somi here. Not pushing Heury even though I'm an unlikely lynch - which could default to Tatter? remembe rthis

#439 Tatter - made me fall off my chair
Crazy push. No self prez here though

#441 Bessie
I actually thought your opening posts were fine, the empty ones were as I described.
I liked the somi case more when I was still asleep

#452 there's the self prez!

OK so

I think Heury is probably town
I'll ride or die on Sabrar being town just very stuck up (no offense)
Ran I think is probably town
Laser DB town
Tatter falling down the reads
Bessie slight climb back up. Very surprised that the wagon actually picked up some steam


I'll take a Somi lynch ideally.

But

Tatter or Heury gives info, I keep flipping on these two so don't much care which one dies. I'll let bessie dictate which I vote for since she's active.

 

[Swiss]

Swiss : now that you no longer claim to be Vig you might want to answer why you thought claiming it was a good idea in the first place.

Thought it might be useful. Don't get hung up on it.

You're gonna wanna go meta me mate if you think that's a tell, or look at Ran's reaction to it.

 

[Swiss]

DeadBananas
Laser
Ranmaru
Sabrar
HueryAlone
Bessie
Tattertot
Somitomi
Swiss

Ok so slight contradiction but let's roll with it. Current reads. I'm flip flopping much more than I used to. No order within the colours.

 

[ranmaru]

Swiss Somitomi is town. You are going to want to read my #490.

 

[Swiss]

This take on Swiss is very reasonable. Did you just vote Ranmaru for shock value? Your case on Swiss seems much more complete and your points on Ran are heavily by-association to Swiss.



I'm less convinced of this one. I spent a lot of time thinking about scum!Ran today, and I just don't see it. I think Town!Ran is basically Town!you of 2018.



This is my rough pairings analysis for Tatter:

Ran - Very unlikely. I don't think scum!Ran would push a buddy this hard, and I think Ran would probably try to improve Tatter's content

bessie - Very unlikely. I think bessie would try to improve Tatter's content.

Sabrar - Very unlikely. I think Sabrar would try to improve Tatter's content.

heury - Unlikely. I think Heury would probably consider advising Tatter to lean into weirdness or at least let him do his own thing. Or was not present and they never discussed strategy at all. But I don't think heury would go all in on bussing on D1 though.

somitomi - Possible. Not present for early D1 so Tatter left to position himself. I don't know how comfortable somitomi would be coaching as mafia.

Swiss - Possible. I don't know enough about him to say for sure, but he seems like the kind of player who might encourage Tatter to lean into his newbieness. Has advocated for Tatter as Town.

Deadbananas - I just think DB is Town and honestly never really considered him as a possibility. Thinking on it now, DB is fairly new and probably would be uncomfortable coaching a buddy, so I guess I can't explicitly rule him out.



Tatter:

Still a weak Town lean. I haven't really seen all that much to affect my read here. Is there anything in particular that you would like to me respond to of his?

Somitomi:

My experience is that Somi tends to be more snarky and off-the-cuff in his commentary as Town, and his posting more polished as mafia. His posting is more consistent with the latter, so I still lean scum. As I said earlier, I was curious if my voting him would lead to a Town-meta comment, but he demurred.



I'm not sure I can give you an example of a game where I had no confidence, as either alignment. As I already said, in two of my recent Town games, I had a strong scum ping on page 1 and played accordingly. But have there been games where I haven't had a solid scumread on page 5? Almost for sure.

Ran do you see this as a scum post?

He puts unnecessary work in, and gives real insight into Sabrar's case on me/you which doesn't spark flames

 

[Sabrar]

Tatter or Heury gives info, I keep flipping on these two so don't much care which one dies. I'll let bessie dictate which I vote for since she's active.

bessie is no longer active, you should assume she won't return before deadline and proceed accordingly.

 

[ranmaru]

He puts unnecessary work in, and gives real insight into Sabrar's case on me/you which doesn't spark flames

The red is where you start to lose to him, and I have in the past with the same mindset. He puts the work in as mafia I assure you.

 

[ranmaru]

LaserGuy is a strong player.

 

[LaserGuy]

TOWN [DeadBananas > Sabrar > Somitomi > Swiss > HeuryAlone | Tattertot > LaserGuy > Bessie] SCUM

Unvote; Vote: Bessie

I don't have time to address this tonight, but I'm acknowledging its existence. But I will advise you against trying to meta read me in future games. I'm sure I have some meta tells that are reliable, but your entire case against me is based on bad meta and poor assumptions. You might want to compare notes with Xivii though as he tried the same thing in Apex mafia and I was Town there too.

Tattertot - 2- Heury Alone, LaserGuy
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar
bessie - 1 Ranmaru

Ew....

 

[Sabrar]

and gives real insight into Sabrar's case on me/you which doesn't spark flames

I disagree with this part, that is an easy position for scum to take (not necessarily indicating that he's scum just NAI).

 

[Swiss]

Swiss Somitomi is town. You are going to want to read my #490.

I read it.

I think a Bessie lynch is too snipey for me.

 

[Swiss]

I disagree with this part, that is an easy position for scum to take (not necessarily indicating that he's scum just NAI).

Fair but read genuine to me

ranmaru There is something about Laser that is off, hence my comment if i'm wrong on anyone its him. Something lurking, but it could be anything. he might just be a weird dude irl

 

[Sabrar]

And now I'm off for 2 hours.

 

[ranmaru]

I don't have time to address this tonight, but I'm acknowledging its existence. But I will advise you against trying to meta read me in future games.

I was actually considering re-evaluating you until you posted your #380. I am confident you are Mafia here. I will compare notes with Xiivi post-game though.

 

[ranmaru]

I think a Bessie lynch is too snipey for me.

Boo. At the very least, don't think you should lynch Somi.

 

[Swiss]

I have a timer set for 2 hours. Deadline in 3.

 

[ranmaru]

Deadbananas: I want you to consider what path to take when you might be wrong on Heury. I realize that for a while he was your only scum read. I think you have been doing a great job. I will say, don't take Bessie's tone for granted. We've already talked about Laser. I want you to keep an eye on them if I'm dead. Go back to my #490 when you have time to re-read the game. Best of all, do your best. (I know you were, but more so, continue doing your best)

 

[LaserGuy]

ranmaru , I am feeling better about Swiss and I hate the current wagon situation. I think I'm going to move back to somi. If you want to put your vote on another wagon so that yours wins in the event of a draw, I will hold off for a few minutes.

 

[ranmaru]

LaserGuy Unvote; Vote: Tattertot

 

[LaserGuy]

Tattertot - 3- Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Ranmaru
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar

Did you do that on purpose to put the option back to me?

Fine, I'll stick with Tatter then. Make of that what you will.

 

[ranmaru]

Tattertot is null-scum to me so that is why I pick that if I must pick a wagon. I've already stated I'd go back if needed and if I couldn't get support for Bessie.