Tomafia 4: Game Over - Mafia Wins!

[Strong Badam]

Turning off my usual red post background for the remainder of the game so that the above formatting doesn't make eyes bleed LOL

 

[Tom]

Vote Count:
--- (1): Matunas
Not voting (6): Werekill, Strong Bad, TewnLeenk, Rockin, ---, Mediocre

Day 2 will end Tuesday, April 2 at 5:30 pm CST or when a player reaches 4/7 votes.

 

[Matunas]

Besides reads, I feel I would be of better service to the town in being as upfront as possible. Am not really making a gamble in my mind, though I can see the thought process behind much of what has been said and do not fault anyone for thinking that way.

Getting leads for the town to follow on Day One is important, arguably more so than gut feelings IMO.

I'm pretty okay with my vote staying on you for the moment. Care to expand anymore on why you did it? Were there hints you were bluffing?

I made a note that your final post on D1 was weird, and I find it more so now with what happened. You never took a hard stance on anyone except Rockin, who at the time was the only other option to save <π. Rockin to me reads as an opportune target, and based on how votes went I'd say probably town. Right now my eyes are on you moving into the day.

I'm interested in SB and Werekills take on events once they get the chance to look everything over/type it up.

I don't disagree with your assessment, but I think you should avoid providing rationalizations for other player's actions while they're still alive. Let --- explain his rationale for himself before weighing in on what it might be. That way, if --- is scum, he doesn't have the benefit of being able to play off your explanation/support.

Just want to say I agree with this.

TewnLeenk How ya feeling moving into D2?

Rockin Where ya at man? How you feeling about the day so far?

 

[TewnLeenk]

I'm pretty okay with my vote staying on you for the moment. Care to expand anymore on why you did it? Were there hints you were bluffing?

I made a note that your final post on D1 was weird, and I find it more so now with what happened. You never took a hard stance on anyone except Rockin, who at the time was the only other option to save <π. Rockin to me reads as an opportune target, and based on how votes went I'd say probably town. Right now my eyes are on you moving into the day.

I'm interested in SB and Werekills take on events once they get the chance to look everything over/type it up.



Just want to say I agree with this.

TewnLeenk How ya feeling moving into D2?

Rockin Where ya at man? How you feeling about the day so far?

Day 2 has definitely been a day so far.

I people who are really standing out to me right now are --- because of the reasons everyone else has already posted, and Mediocre, just for being uncomfortable on a <pi lynch. Maybe it's just me misreading them, but so far those have been the 2 standouts so far.

 

[TewnLeenk]

*The people

typing is hard

 

[---]

SB/WK are much greater town-leans for me.
Mediocre is by and large the biggest null and given they didn't vote yesterday.
TewnLeenk I'm still skeptical due to their brief posts, but are a slight town-lean.
Rockin I still think their behavior is off, but I can't deny their vote yesterday. Null-lean.
Matunas I'll need to re-read. They voted for <Pi, but as they were the deciding vote I don't want to lean on that too much. Null-ish.

I'm pretty okay with my vote staying on you for the moment. Care to expand anymore on why you did it? Were there hints you were bluffing?

Spoiler

Being voted for straight out of the gate? I guess that makes sense, I like chocolate better too.

It's Day One, so not much. Someone has to start the bandwagon. Based on your vote I can tell you like strawberry.

What can I say. I like Vanilla.

That said, though you have the right idea, I think you need to re-read my clues slightly.

I came into this game with a pessimistic viewpoint of my role, particularly in regards to the long game, so I figured it'd be better to take the first step out of the gate and give my fellow townies something to chew on and given that my reads would be weaker than most as I'm a newer BR member and am not as familiar when someone is acting off. It would have also decreased the chance a potential Doctor would waste their role on me.

I made a note that your final post on D1 was weird, and I find it more so now with what happened. You never took a hard stance on anyone except Rockin, who at the time was the only other option to save <π. Rockin to me reads as an opportune target, and based on how votes went I'd say probably town. Right now my eyes are on you moving into the day.

I still stand by my vote given their aggressively defensive behavior and open lack of interest in re-reading the thread. If they asked for the posts WK, SB, and I were referencing in our exchanges as you have I would have be more reluctant in my choice of vote. If I was scum and interested in playing down my spot in the hot seat, it would have been infinitely safer to have been the deciding 5th vote (as Tom was the last post before I made my vote and <Pi was already at 4 votes).

At best, I'm an adamant but risky townie & gambler. At worst, an incredibly foolish mafia member.

 

[Strong Badam]

So I'm still in the midst of re-reading and considering what it all means. So this post will be less holistic than I had hoped, so take things with a grain of salt and please reply with anything that may contradict. I'll try to do the same as I continue to re-read over and over.

What I will say is that I am a lot less sure than I thought I would be at this point. I think it's because it was reasonably clear early on that <π was gonna go down. This gave the remaining scum early warning, and they could have decided fairly early to not even try to save <π or otherwise distance themselves from him, and additionally could have instructed <π to not obviously mention his partner frequently and also not fail to mention him. I picked up a few things here and there though.

-<π was strongly against both myself and Werekill for most of the first day, claiming that RVS felt wrong to him. We now know that it's because he was scum. RVS began on --- who shrugged off the votes and then played what we are to believe is this strange Town gambit. Werekill has read that this is a poor Town gambit, and --- has agreed. Mediocre in post #271 argues friction against giving rationale for someone's strange actions prior to they themselves doing so. Werekill #275 states that he's firmly against Mediocre's #271, but to what degree or if it's related to the --- statement we are unsure.

-Mediocre says he would be "a little uncomfortable" lynching <π in post #183
- Rockin said that he would "begrudgingly" go for a <π in #186.

An exchange between myself and @Medicore took place in posts #89, #99, #103, #104 concluding with #106. It was a bit strange to me that a paragraph responding conceptually to the prompt was not satisfactory but a more or less copy-paste of the original wording was.

So, again with a grain of salt, here are my reads right now.

Scumlean: Mediocre, Rockin, ---
Null: TewnLeenk, Matunas
Townlean: Werekill Strong Bad

-Medi and Rockin for reasons in this post. Mediocre and Rockin were frequently mentioned in <π[/B]'s scumread lists. He also "accidentally" had Mediocre in his scum list once and corrected it to Werekill.
For --- I still think this gambit thing is pretty bizarre. Happy to hear other perspectives on this though.

-Werekill was on <π[/B]'s ass out the gate and has been fairly helpful to town, I don't think he's scum. It'd be a really ballsy play from either me or Werekill to have bussed <π[/B] that early and been consistently against him. Feel free to form your own conclusions about me though, this is mostly mine on Werekill.
-Matunas hammered <π[/B] but hammering scum as scum isn't uncommon. That said, he hasn't said anything particularly odd to me to make him seem scummy. He could be playing scum very well though.
-TewnLeenk was the 3rd vote on <π[/B] but hasn't been active enough for me to have a strong read on him. He has not said anything scummy from my perspective.

 

[Strong Badam]

M-my BBCode...

 

[TewnLeenk]

Time for some reads to go with my morning coffee.

So to be honest, this is a little difficult to make some reads on so far. The only people who are really sticking out to me are --- and Mediocre, like I said a few posts before.

So,

--- : I'm really not getting the game plan here. Giving away your role early on and just the way your posts are worded seem weird to me. I dun get it. Probably leaning towards scum.

Mediocre: Now that we know who <pi is, you being uncomfortable with a lynch sticks out. Also I reread your exchange with Strong Bad that he mentioned in the post above and I full agree with him that the ending statement wasn't very conclusive.

Rockin and Matunas: Null. Not really seeing anything too crazy here, outside of a couple exchanges with other users.

Werekill and Strong Bad are giving off some mega Town vibes to me. They're the most active ones and are really pushing for the hard hitting information here.

I'm going back and trying to find everyone's interactions with <pi to see if there was some little clues or details that we missed in their conversations with him that could be helpful.

 

[Rockin]

Sorry for coming here late. There was work...and then I kinda chilled for the rest of the day oh yeah, there was also FF14 stuff, but i gotta represent the black mage!

I was hoping to try another attempt at werekill lynch, but seeing ---'s actual claim, it seems I have to wait longer

Vote: ---

The claim seems...very off. I just can't trust it, especially after his breadcrumb on D1

Being voted for straight out of the gate? I guess that makes sense, I like chocolate better too.

It's Day One, so not much. Someone has to start the bandwagon. Based on your vote I can tell you like strawberry.

What can I say. I like Vanilla.

My guess his originally he wanted to breadcrumb Napolitan, and possibly try to throw the claim on someone he 'trusts' with the night PMs

My weekend is over so I have to work tonight. My activity will be down until tomorrow morning.



More or less for now. I've laid out my clues and don't have much else to say beyond wanting to poke other people into posting, if only to keep the conversation going like everyone else. I can't really say I've noticed a definitive flow to Day 1, beyond past games where Mayors try and prove themselves out of the gate.

Am willing to give a role claim in Night PMs to any interested party, no strings attached.

Once he realized the rules didn't actually allow night PMs (as well as possibly other things), he had to change the stratedgy and go with Vanilla townie claim, as it's a bit safe. I know we can also go with the possibly that he anticipated this and used the breadcrumb to put wifom on the townies of what his role could actually be, but i'm just going to use the razor and say that I just don't believe him.

I am still under the guise that the game's layout is presented to us, and thus wouldn't lie. The flips thus far have been accurate

 

[Lore]

****, I'm sick. I'll post a bit today and expand on my Medi issues, but it won't be too much. Sorry guys.

 

[Matunas]

Rockin I saw you mention a possible Werekill lynch in one of you last posts of D1. I know there have been a few exchanges between you two. If there is anything you saw that was scummy going on I'd be interested. Otherwise right now I'm at the same place with --- that you are.

I think --- is our best candidate at the moment, but any more votes puts him in hammer range and we still have plenty of time left.

-Werekill was on <π[/B]'s *** out the gate and has been fairly helpful to town, I don't think he's scum. It'd be a really ballsy play from either me or Werekill to have bussed <π[/B] that early and been consistently against him. Feel free to form your own conclusions about me though, this is mostly mine on Werekill.
-Matunas hammered <π[/B] but hammering scum as scum isn't uncommon. That said, he hasn't said anything particularly odd to me to make him seem scummy. He could be playing scum very well though.
-TewnLeenk was the 3rd vote on <π[/B] but hasn't been active enough for me to have a strong read on him. He has not said anything scummy from my perspective.

Strong Badam You made the initial push toward <pi and presented a strong case, sticking to it through out the day. Between you and Werekill I have you as a strong town read right now, with Werekill as a likely town. To make it straight forward about my vote, I hammered because it was a clear desperate attempt to muddle up the final moments of D1. If anyone had unvoted because of the claim, or if <pi was fishing for a PR, it could have caused problems. I had already stated my intent earlier, and in that moment - with less than 30 minutes of day left, I felt it was the right choice.

I came into this game with a pessimistic viewpoint of my role, particularly in regards to the long game, so I figured it'd be better to take the first step out of the gate and give my fellow townies something to chew on and given that my reads would be weaker than most as I'm a newer BR member and am not as familiar when someone is acting off. It would have also decreased the chance a potential Doctor would waste their role on me.

I still stand by my vote given their aggressively defensive behavior and open lack of interest in re-reading the thread. If they asked for the posts WK, SB, and I were referencing in our exchanges as you have I would have be more reluctant in my choice of vote. If I was scum and interested in playing down my spot in the hot seat, it would have been infinitely safer to have been the deciding 5th vote (as Tom was the last post before I made my vote and <Pi was already at 4 votes).

At best, I'm an adamant but risky townie & gambler. At worst, an incredibly foolish mafia member.

I don't get your logic here. Were you trying to claim Vanilla townie? How and where? To me it was clear you were intending to claim Neapolitan without coming out and saying it directly. How would this promote the (potential) doctor to avoid targeting you? Would it not give them reason to protect you instead?

Hammering in that moment instead of voting for Rockin (the only other possible lynch at that time) would have been extra scummy to me. So I don't agree with the reasoning here personally. It would have ended the day early, especially since SB had requested noone does so. With that in mind you did state you were heading to work and wouldn't be around, so at least you placed a vote.

That last line of your post though just catches me as weird.

Mediocre We haven't heard much from you today, just a few clarifications about previous posts. Any thoughts on the way the votes fell? Where are you leaning right now on people?

TewnLeenk SB's post #280 summing up <pi and Pythag's posts is helpful for a quick reread regarding those two.

 

[Tom]

Vote Count:
--- (2): Matunas, Rockin
Not voting (5): Werekill, Strong Bad, TewnLeenk, ---, Mediocre

Day 2 will end Tuesday, April 2 at 5:30 pm CST or when a player reaches 4/7 votes.

 

[Strong Badam]

****, I'm sick. I'll post a bit today and expand on my Medi issues, but it won't be too much. Sorry guys.

****! Hope you feel better soon. We need you T_T Plz try to do a recap today or tomorrow homie.

Rockin do you have anything to say to post #287?

Mediocre in post #272 you claimed you would re-read and post thoughts yesterday. What's going on fam?

 

[Rockin]

Matunas - Originally, it started with just a gut read mainly, as some of his posts and approach to the game/players didn't sit well with me (on a more personal level then just scummy behavior). I noticed that he was being more chummy with SB, but that could also be that they're the 'two most active players' and are just going off on that. It does feel like he's trying to be more friendly towards his town leads/those he thinks is town, so my feel on him being scum is mostly gut based

SB - I'm not sure what much is there to say, except possibly elaborate on my 'semi disagreement' with <pi? well there wasn't anything that set me off as scummy play from half the day. I thought the vote on me was weird, but understood he either wanted to join in on the most likely party for lynch canidates (bandwagons), or that he, like many other people, were still somewhat mis-reading my early play.

There was also the fact I wouldn't get as much info as I would with a werekill lynch.

 

[---]

Just woke up and am heading to work soon. Quiet day today, so my thoughts haven't really changed.

I think I want to hear from Mediocre first before looking to commit a vote on someone. I still have no feel on them and would like that to change.

 

[Matunas]

It is pretty quiet today.

However there are still things happening.

--- Your list has 2 townies, a town-lean, and 3 nulls (one of which is null"ish" - me). The list does not include yourself. You then mentioned Medi again in your other post. Are these your only thoughts on the day so far? How about any of the questions asked? Post 292 I ask a few. How about the votes/suspicion of you?

TewnLeenk How do you feel about the current state of things? You seem to find Medi kinda troubling. Any specific questions that would help get you answers there?

Mediocre Hey man, hoping to hear a little more of your side right now.

Lore Sucks you aren't feeling well. I recommend naps and tea. SB is right in that we could use some input whenever you get a chance though.

 

[Strong Badam]

Ok so we really need more activity. We can't have such a successful day 1 and throw it away by doing jack **** day 1.

Vote: ---

Please respond to Matunas queries in #292 and further explain your vanilla town role reveal. What were you hoping to accomplish with it?

 

[Strong Badam]

We can't have such a successful day 1 and throw it away by doing jack **** day 1.

Obviously meant day 2 sorry on my phone

 

[Strong Badam]

BTW it's important that all players understand that lynch occurs at 4 votes now that we have 7 players! Another vote on --- would put him at L-1.

 

[Mediocre]

I haven't done a full reread/skim yet, which I intended to do. My bad. But I'm having trouble getting to sleep tonight, and I figure I might as well post something in here.

My reads so far haven't changed a ton, except both Werekill and Strongbad have moved more town for me. I can imagine scenarios where they'd bus <pi this early, but I don't think that's what happened. <pi's lynch felt pretty organic, and they were early, strong voices of suspicion. I am leaning town on both of them. If <pi got bused, I suspect it was by somebody who jumped onto the lynch later than either SB or Werekill did.

I'm nowhere near 100% on that, and I don't have strong town reads on either SB or Werekill, but I'm not suspicious of them at the moment.

Second, I'd like to ask, if I'm scum, why would I kill off Pythag? Right now, I think almost everyone has me as scum-lean or null. Pythag was I think literally the only player who had me as even slight town-lean.

Uhh, not feeling so great anymore.

I think I'm getting a town read on Medi, but not so sure.l.

Given that the only mafia power role died before N1, there's no way I could have had any idea that Pythag was a power role himself. Given all this, why would I possibly pick him to nightkill? Eliminating the one player who was sort of on my side, for what advantage?

As far as I can tell it would just be a really stupid move for mafia-Medi to make.

 

[---]

Back from work. It'll be weird to re-read the thread today.

Rockin

 

[---]

^^^ I think the site glitched and deleted part of my response? Am re-writing this from memory:

I don't get your logic here. Were you trying to claim Vanilla townie? How and where? To me it was clear you were intending to claim Neapolitan without coming out and saying it directly. How would this promote the (potential) doctor to avoid targeting you? Would it not give them reason to protect you instead?

Hammering in that moment instead of voting for Rockin (the only other possible lynch at that time) would have been extra scummy to me. So I don't agree with the reasoning here personally. It would have ended the day early, especially since SB had requested noone does so. With that in mind you did state you were heading to work and wouldn't be around, so at least you placed a vote.

That last line of your post though just catches me as weird.

Besides correcting SB and not WK on their assumptions, if you look at the context of my breadcrumbs two are in the negative (my responses to SB/WK trying to pressure me) and in the affirmative (my liking of vanilla).

Ending the Day ~3 hours early vs. saving face I think would've been a solid gamble for a scum member to have taken (assuming they voted, not voting can also attract attention). Attempting to change a 4 person bandwagon in such a limited amount of time would be one of the most foolish actions a scum member to take, especially if they were already in hot water.

Please respond to Matunas queries in #292 and further explain your vanilla town role reveal. What were you hoping to accomplish with it?

I mostly to give the town something to chew on and to put out some bait for scum to take, which currently all of my scum-leans have (you being the exception). Vanilla isn't generally useful and can be burdensome in the long run, so getting myself out of the way I figure is a solid game plan.

 

[Lore]

I'm at work, not sick, and it's a slow day.

My body is ready.

 

[TewnLeenk]

Mediocre's post #301 helped alleviate some of the concerns I had with them earlier on in day 2.

Right now I'm leaning towards --- but I don't want to hammer them just yet until I hear more. I really don't understand their game plan.



Now I have to get back to playing Animal Crossing: New Leaf on my Nintendo 3DS.

 

[Lore]

Quoting the parts of Medi's post that were weird to me, along with a second post.

*he quoted me saying that there are lower odds that Rockin is scum*

Why would that be low odds? I'm not saying Rockin is scum, but if he was his vote seems like it would have been a smart move, to me. By the time he voted on D2, it seemed almost certain to me that either <pi or Rockin was going to get lynched.


*he quoted my post about --- probably being Vanilla Town*

I don't disagree with your assessment, but I think you should avoid providing rationalizations for other player's actions while they're still alive. Let --- explain his rationale for himself before weighing in on what it might be. That way, if --- is scum, he doesn't have the benefit of being able to play off your explanation/support.

With Rockin, it's pretty simple logic. He and <pi had the same objections to early voting, at the same time. How likely is it that Scum did the exact same thing at the exact same time? I don't think Rockin would be that bad of a scum player, given his experience.

For the math, we have 9 players right? So from my perspective, we have (outside of me) 2 scum and 6 Town players. I'm keeping myself out of it so that you can transplant yourself into the math and understand my perspective, assuming you're town. But that assumption is fading.

Then we have 1 scum confirmed between <pi and Rockin. So from the potential pool of other people taking the same stance, which is more likely: that the only other scum took that stance? Or that a town player from the 6 left (outside of me/yourself/whoever is reading this) mistakenly took the same stance?

To be clear here, it's weird to me that you want to argue against me having a town read based on Game Theory logic. Why are you against my town read?


Same thing for ---, minus the math/game theory. I initially read --- as Vanilla Town making a poor gambit. The only situation where it benefited scum, imo, was if we had goon/goon, making it a safe claim. We now have that confirmed as not the situation, so why would scum make such a risky gambit early?

I'm seeing a lot of "I don't disagree or am saying this player is scum BUUUUT lemme talk you out of your town read fam." That's weird as hell.

I haven't done a full reread/skim yet, which I intended to do. My bad. But I'm having trouble getting to sleep tonight, and I figure I might as well post something in here.

My reads so far haven't changed a ton, except both Werekill and Strongbad have moved more town for me. I can imagine scenarios where they'd bus <pi this early, but I don't think that's what happened. <pi's lynch felt pretty organic, and they were early, strong voices of suspicion. I am leaning town on both of them. If <pi got bused, I suspect it was by somebody who jumped onto the lynch later than either SB or Werekill did.

I'm nowhere near 100% on that, and I don't have strong town reads on either SB or Werekill, but I'm not suspicious of them at the moment.


Second, I'd like to ask, if I'm scum, why would I kill off Pythag? Right now, I think almost everyone has me as scum-lean or null. Pythag was I think literally the only player who had me as even slight town-lean.

Given that the only mafia power role died before N1, there's no way I could have had any idea that Pythag was a power role himself. Given all this, why would I possibly pick him to nightkill? Eliminating the one player who was sort of on my side, for what advantage?

As far as I can tell it would just be a really stupid move for mafia-Medi to make.

Two things stand out to me here.

Currently, a very large amount of players have myself or Strong Bad as Town leans. Given my current suspicion of you, it feels odd that the only reads that changed were on the most common read so far on D2. It'd be absurdly easy for you to hop on there and gain some Town cred for sharing a read. Alone, this isn't weird. With the next point, it's weird.

Even with this read change, you leave yourself wiggle room. "I'm nowhere near 100% on that" is basically your motto this game. Your reads are extremely soft, with extreme amounts of room for you to back out of them and change. Heck, your "uncomfortableness" with <pi's lynch reeked of that, a clear preference to not have a strong stance. Combined with everything else, this is super weird.


Next, you're defending yourself by going into "why would I kill Pythag?" Completely unprompted, as far as I can tell. Why is this your defense? That scum kill reeked of WIFOM, and analyzing too deeply isn't of much value at this moment.

At the same time, I'd welcome analysis of the kill, if someone thinks they have valid insight into it. But for this analysis to come as a defense? Unprompted? That's weird as hell.

Vote: Mediocre

There's way too much fishy stuff in general with you for me to not vote: medi.

 

[Lore]

Mediocre's post #301 helped alleviate some of the concerns I had with them earlier on in day 2.

Right now I'm leaning towards --- but I don't want to hammer them just yet until I hear more. I really don't understand their game plan.



Now I have to get back to playing Animal Crossing: New Leaf on my Nintendo 3DS.

Woah woah woah --- is at hammer range?

Can someone unvote? That's insanely risky this early. We still have tomorrow, right?

I'm failing to see the benefit of scum--- making that gambit, and I'm not sure why people are hopping all over it. The gambit reeks of Town making a misplay, especially now that goon/goon is confirmed to not be the scenario.


My current read list is inbound shortly.

 

[Strong Badam]

By my count, --- is at two votes (myself and Matunas). Mediocre is at one vote (Werekill). No one else has voted.

 

[Lore]

I'd like to preface this with the statement that these are all still leans; it's only D2. However, they have settled into pretty strong leans, to put it mildly.

Werekill's reads:

Scum leans:

Mediocre Strange behavior from this player, as stated in my earlier post. I feel very comfortable parking my vote on this slot.

Null but noteworthy:

Rockin I read <pi + Rockin as the usual D1 read, with both as scum leans. <pi's behavior grew worse as the day went on, while Rockin's didn't get much worse iirc. Given this, Rockin's D2 behavior so far, and my earlier post about odds, I'm more comfortable seeing this slot less as Scum. Not even close to a Town lean, but certainly much better than my D1 read. I disagree with the --- vote, as previously stated.

^Question for Strong Badam on Rockin : You noted that <pi frequently mentioned Rockin as a scum read; do you think that this was a Bus attempt, or an attempt to just deflect off themselves to the next lynch candidate? I got the vibe that they were trying to do that with other things near the end of D1, not to mention the Cop claim attempt. I'm leaning towards it being deflection, but I want to hear your thoughts.

TewnLeenk Their behavior has improved from D1, with much more clear reads and questions. I don't get a firm town vibe from this slot though, and I'm trying to decide if my gut is just reading Newbie behavior as fishy behavior.

Strong Badam This player is working hard on reading the <pi interactions and generally seems ok, but I still want to account for bias towards an active/similar-thinking player. I'd lean Town hard otherwise, and I plan to do a deep dive into their posts D3 to settle my read. Given current behavior, I suspect it'll come up as a Town read towards them. Same issue with the --- vote.

Matunas The hammer D1 was either Town seeing through bull**** or Scum earning easy points. I strongly lean towards the former, given this player's past behavior in game. I get a general Town vibe from the content I have seen, but I don't like the --- vote so this player is Null.

Town leans:

--- I still read this slot as Vanilla Town with a poor gambit, and I don't understand what other people are seeing here. If --- became the lynch instead of a much worse player like Medi, I'd have to do some serious read re-evaluating depending on the flip. I firmly believe that it will be a town flip, though.

 

[Mediocre]

With Rockin, it's pretty simple logic. He and <pi had the same objections to early voting, at the same time. How likely is it that Scum did the exact same thing at the exact same time? I don't think Rockin would be that bad of a scum player, given his experience.

That's a good point.

To be clear here, it's weird to me that you want to argue against me having a town read based on Game Theory logic. Why are you against my town read?

I'm against any reads that don't make sense. You didn't explain it, and I didn't follow the same (rather specific) logic chain that led you to that conclusion.

I am really baffled how this is suspicious. I was against your town read when it seemed it was just because of the "low odds of it being SvS for D1". Now that you've explained that there's more to it, it makes sense to me.

Same thing for ---, minus the math/game theory. I initially read --- as Vanilla Town making a poor gambit. The only situation where it benefited scum, imo, was if we had goon/goon, making it a safe claim. We now have that confirmed as not the situation, so why would scum make such a risky gambit early?

I'm seeing a lot of "I don't disagree or am saying this player is scum BUUUUT lemme talk you out of your town read fam." That's weird as hell.

Are you 100% --- is town? If you're not 100%, I think giving a possible scum --- ready-made rationales to explain their actions was absolutely a mistake. If you think --- is town, nothing is hurt by letting --- explain himself first.

Currently, a very large amount of players have myself or Strong Bad as Town leans. Given my current suspicion of you, it feels odd that the only reads that changed were on the most common read so far on D2. It'd be absurdly easy for you to hop on there and gain some Town cred for sharing a read. Alone, this isn't weird. With the next point, it's weird.

I didn't expect town cred for declaring you guys town-lean. I've played enough mafia to know that the last person (or sometimes the last few people) to come to a certain conclusion or jump on a certain bandwagon often look a bit suspicious.

Did you honestly think I could get "town cred" for agreeing with the popular opinion on you and SB? If you do, you must have a very different understanding of how people are perceived as scum/town in mafia games than I do.

Even with this read change, you leave yourself wiggle room. "I'm nowhere near 100% on that" is basically your motto this game. Your reads are extremely soft, with extreme amounts of room for you to back out of them and change. Heck, your "uncomfortableness" with <pi's lynch reeked of that, a clear preference to not have a strong stance. Combined with everything else, this is super weird.

The only strong read I've had all game was on Pythag. I'm not inclined to pretend my reads are stronger than they are in order to seem more town.

If you actually look at my reads over the course of the game, I don't think you'll find them any more changeable than any other player.

Next, you're defending yourself by going into "why would I kill Pythag?" Completely unprompted, as far as I can tell. Why is this your defense? That scum kill reeked of WIFOM, and analyzing too deeply isn't of much value at this moment.

Completely unprompted? I feel like you're not correctly observing my position here.

As I noted in my previous posts, I am currently town-lean in no one's eyes. Everyone has me as either null or scum-lean. You had me as scum-lean, had promised a post with more details, and you've been a leading voice in this game so far. The way things were (maybe are?) going, I was fully expecting to be on the chopping block either toDay or toMorrow.

Considering the argument itself, I feel like it's pretty sound, and you haven't actually made any points against it, except maybe that it was WIFOM?

So, let me ask you, keeping in mind that Pythag was the only player with a town read on me. Would it be a strong move for scum-Medi to kill off Pythag so that he could have a somewhat-WIFOM argument to defend himself? Would that be a trade off you'd ever go through with if you were playing scum?

 

[Lore]

By my count, --- is at two votes (myself and Matunas). Mediocre is at one vote (Werekill). No one else has voted.

--- is at three, with Rockin on it. You put --- at three.

Responding to Medi now.

 

[Strong Badam]

^Didn't notice Rockin's vote. Unvote: --- for now.

Second, I'd like to ask, if I'm scum, why would I kill off Pythag? Right now, I think almost everyone has me as scum-lean or null. Pythag was I think literally the only player who had me as even slight town-lean.

Given that the only mafia power role died before N1, there's no way I could have had any idea that Pythag was a power role himself. Given all this, why would I possibly pick him to nightkill? Eliminating the one player who was sort of on my side, for what advantage?

As far as I can tell it would just be a really stupid move for mafia-Medi to make.

While I admit I'm the one who started NKA earlier, I don't think this this will be particularly fruitful. NK could have been chosen for a myriad of reasons, like picking someone unexpected for a possible Doctor to not choose. I'm not sure Pythag's leans were relevant, it's more likely that he was simply a rational player who demonstrated an ability to change his reads based on arguments of other logical Townies.

Catching up and formulating responses to other posts atm.

Unrelated, I think we should start discussing things that can make an unclaimed Cop safe to state the results of his first night check, provided he didn't check Pythag. It'd be bad news if NK2 was Cop and we didn't get the results of their check. Something like, we all go "I strongly feel X is Town" and it's someone who is Null or Scum on their list, to prevent most people from saying the same player. And everyone should have a lean list by now.

 

[Strong Badam]

I will say that my lynch pool for D2 right now is --- and Mediocre. I think neither have contributed very well. Most of ---'s content so far is either performing his D1 role reveal stuff or responding to remarks about it. #217 and #286 have reads, and otherwise I couldn't find much else.
For Mediocre, a lot of his content from my perspective is summarizing stuff about the game without drawing a conclusion that would lead to action or a meaningful response from others. The biggest example I can find contrary to that is #180 where he prompts Rockin to do some discussion.

 

[Lore]

That's a good point.

I'm against any reads that don't make sense. You didn't explain it, and I didn't follow the same (rather specific) logic chain that led you to that conclusion.

I am really baffled how this is suspicious. I was against your town read when it seemed it was just because of the "low odds of it being SvS for D1". Now that you've explained that there's more to it, it makes sense to me.

The low odds argument is pretty decent by itself, especially when it wasn't player VS player until they were both lynch candidates iirc. I need to reread and refresh myself on that point.

Two players had a seemingly-separate-but-similar viewpoint D1. Given that we have 2 confirmed scum out of 9 players, those are pretty decent odds for at least one of those players to be town.

This shut down from you was weird, but it got extra weird combined with the rest.

Are you 100% --- is town? If you're not 100%, I think giving a possible scum --- ready-made rationales to explain their actions was absolutely a mistake. If you think --- is town, nothing is hurt by letting --- explain himself first.

Of course I'm not 100% that --- is town. But your post went almost immediately into arguing-against-and-denying my two town reads (with Rockin being the much softer of the two).

Your rationale makes some sense, but I also very much saw it as a bad gambit from the getgo. I even politely told --- the same, instead of letting the gambit move forward and cause issues. They didn't explain themselves until toDay, and they combined it with their breadcrumbs that they had posted. I think it's fair for me to state my read and personal thoughts on the gambit.

So why is your content so against my two town reads? Why do you want me to not see two players as town? It's weird.

I didn't expect town cred for declaring you guys town-lean. I've played enough mafia to know that the last person (or sometimes the last few people) to come to a certain conclusion or jump on a certain bandwagon often look a bit suspicious.

Did you honestly think I could get "town cred" for agreeing with the popular opinion on you and SB? If you do, you must have a very different understanding of how people are perceived as scum/town in mafia games than I do.

It's less that it's weird by itself, more that it's weird when combined with your other material. Your only defined reads seem to be on the literal easiest opinion to fake in the game so far. By itself, it'd be odd but not that notable. Combined with the other bits, I find it weird.

The only strong read I've had all game was on Pythag. I'm not inclined to pretend my reads are stronger than they are in order to seem more town.

If you actually look at my reads over the course of the game, I don't think you'll find them any more changeable than any other player.

And why was your Pythag read so strong? An average player who didn't post too much content but wasn't inactive.

I'll get more into this on my next point, thanks for pointing it out! You just settled my scum-lean on you to a hard scum read.

Completely unprompted? I feel like you're not correctly observing my position here.

As I noted in my previous posts, I am currently town-lean in no one's eyes. Everyone has me as either null or scum-lean. You had me as scum-lean, had promised a post with more details, and you've been a leading voice in this game so far. The way things were (maybe are?) going, I was fully expecting to be on the chopping block either toDay or toMorrow.

Considering the argument itself, I feel like it's pretty sound, and you haven't actually made any points against it, except maybe that it was WIFOM?

So, let me ask you, keeping in mind that Pythag was the only player with a town read on me. Would it be a strong move for scum-Medi to kill off Pythag so that he could have a somewhat-WIFOM argument to defend himself? Would that be a trade off you'd ever go through with if you were playing scum?

I'm pretty correctly observing your position, where it's a player under suspicion who, instead of bringing up their content as a defense, decided to, unprompted, bring up scum-kill-reasonings as a defense.

Scum kills are the definition of WIFOM. Using it as your defense out of nowhere is weird as hell. Your argument being valid or not makes no difference; I'm more concerned with why you said it in the first place.

And let's go more into the argument, if you want. You are arguing that ScumMedi would have no reason to kill Pythag. In the same exact post, you bring up again that Pythag was your only strong read.

Heck, let's ALSO bring up what you posted after N1:

Well, at least my town read on Pythag was correct. I'm sorry to see him go though, since he was making smart reads and I had a very strong feeling he was town.

There are a few things he said yesterDay that are definitely worth revisiting.

*snipped rest of post*

So the first thing you do is bring up how you had a correct Town read on Pythag. Now, you're arguing that ScumMedi had no reason to kill Pythag, despite bragging that your Town read was correct earlier.

If you can't see the scum motivation there for the kill, I don't know what's going on in your head. Kills show role and alignment. You currently are bragging about your Pythag read while also arguing unprompted that you had no reason to kill Pythag. I see quite a bit of scum motivation there.

 

[Tom]

Vote Count:
--- (2): Matunas, Rockin
Mediocre (1): Werekill
Not voting (4): TewnLeenk, ---, Mediocre, Strong Bad

Day 2 will end Tuesday, April 2 at 5:30 pm CST or when a player reaches 4/7 votes.

 

[Strong Badam]

Besides correcting SB and not WK on their assumptions, if you look at the context of my breadcrumbs two are in the negative (my responses to SB/WK trying to pressure me) and in the affirmative (my liking of vanilla).

This isn't even true?

Being voted for straight out of the gate? I guess that makes sense, I like chocolate better too.

It's Day One, so not much. Someone has to start the bandwagon. Based on your vote I can tell you like strawberry.

How are these negative?

What can I say. I like Vanilla.

even "I like chocolate better" -> "I like Vanilla" is very similar phrasing.

Have you a response to this/Rockin's #290?

 

[Lore]

^Didn't notice Rockin's vote. Unvote: --- for now.

While I admit I'm the one who started NKA earlier, I don't think this this will be particularly fruitful. NK could have been chosen for a myriad of reasons, like picking someone unexpected for a possible Doctor to not choose. I'm not sure Pythag's leans were relevant, it's more likely that he was simply a rational player who demonstrated an ability to change his reads based on arguments of other logical Townies.

Catching up and formulating responses to other posts atm.

Unrelated, I think we should start discussing things that can make an unclaimed Cop safe to state the results of his first night check, provided he didn't check Pythag. It'd be bad news if NK2 was Cop and we didn't get the results of their check. Something like, we all go "I strongly feel X is Town" and it's someone who is Null or Scum on their list, to prevent most people from saying the same player. And everyone should have a lean list by now.

Thanks for the unvote.


Woah woah woah, let's pump the brakes there on that cop bit. I don't particularly want to risk drawing attention to a potential cop. Doing something like what you said would just paint a bullseye on anyone with hard town reads.

I get where you're coming from here, but considering the lack of hints towards Cop so far, the N2 kill would just be a matter of luck. Post lynch today, we would have 6 players left, and one would be scum.

So that's a 1/5 chance of hitting the cop. That's good odds for us to take that risk.


If you have a counterpoint, I'd welcome it. But I don't know why you want to paint a target on a potential cop this early. Even if it's just hinting through strong town reads, let's say that 2 players have strong town reads going into N2. If the cop follows your logic, that's two new targets. A 1/2 chance of hitting cop vs 1/5. I don't think that's worth the risk, assuming we have a cop at all.

 

[Lore]

This isn't even true?


How are these negative?

even "I like chocolate better" -> "I like Vanilla" is very similar phrasing.

Have you a response to this/Rockin's #290?

Those two chocolate and strawberry ones were in response to negative pressure, so I can see the argument here from ---. It's a bit of a stretch though, to be fair.

 

[Strong Badam]

Woah woah woah, let's pump the brakes there on that cop bit. I don't particularly want to risk drawing attention to a potential cop. Doing something like what you said would just paint a bullseye on anyone with hard town reads.

I get where you're coming from here, but considering the lack of hints towards Cop so far, the N2 kill would just be a matter of luck. Post lynch today, we would have 6 players left, and one would be scum.

So that's a 1/5 chance of hitting the cop. That's good odds for us to take that risk.


If you have a counterpoint, I'd welcome it. But I don't know why you want to paint a target on a potential cop this early. Even if it's just hinting through strong town reads, let's say that 2 players have strong town reads going into N2. If the cop follows your logic, that's two new targets. A 1/2 chance of hitting cop vs 1/5. I don't think that's worth the risk, assuming we have a cop at all.

Nah I don't have a counterpoint, this is all pretty compelling to me. I kind of just thought of the Cop stuff on a whim. With the odds listed out like how you describe it makes sense to chill on the Cop stuff.

 

[Mediocre]

The low odds argument is pretty decent by itself, especially when it wasn't player VS player until they were both lynch candidates iirc. I need to reread and refresh myself on that point.

Two players had a seemingly-separate-but-similar viewpoint D1. Given that we have 2 confirmed scum out of 9 players, those are pretty decent odds for at least one of those players to be town.

Identifying scum is always low odds, so emphasizing that point so strongly isn't really meaningful. Other than that, I just didn't find your "unlikely to be SvS D1" argument convincing, and by itself I still wouldn't.

Of course I'm not 100% that --- is town. But your post went almost immediately into arguing-against-and-denying my two town reads (with Rockin being the much softer of the two).

Your rationale makes some sense, but I also very much saw it as a bad gambit from the getgo. I even politely told --- the same, instead of letting the gambit move forward and cause issues. They didn't explain themselves until toDay, and they combined it with their breadcrumbs that they had posted. I think it's fair for me to state my read and personal thoughts on the gambit.

So why is your content so against my two town reads? Why do you want me to not see two players as town? It's weird.

I wasn't against your town *read* on ---. I was against you explaining it immediately in the detail you did, which you have now agreed is a position that makes sense.

The fact that you acknowledge my point here makes sense but are still counting it against me strikes me as confirmation bias.

It's less that it's weird by itself, more that it's weird when combined with your other material. Your only defined reads seem to be on the literal easiest opinion to fake in the game so far. By itself, it'd be odd but not that notable. Combined with the other bits, I find it weird.

Okay. I'm not sure how to argue against something that is only "odd".

Again, this feels to me like an example of confirmation bias. You had a scum-lean on me fairly early on in D1, so now everything I do that's "odd" becomes "scummy". Now that I've challenged you on it, and you can't really explain why it's scummy, it's just odd again, but still somehow scummy because... you already had a scum read on me?

And why was your Pythag read so strong? An average player who didn't post too much content but wasn't inactive.

I'm pretty sure I explained this.

Pythag - I don't really have a read on Pythag. He's been making good points, he's been moderately active, but he hasn't been as loud as either SB or Werekill. That might be a smart scum strategy, and Pythag is smart enough to try something I've never really seen before. Despite that, I don't remember seeing anyone who posted quite like this and turned out to be mafia. After the reread, I think Pythag is a moderate town read for me. Definitely not set in stone, but probably my strongest read yet.

Yeah, I did.

To reiterate, I didn't think Pythag was an average player. I thought he was a good player, making very solid reads with strong logic behind them, but not being as vocal as either you or SB. As I said in my post, I just don't remember scum ever playing like that in any of the games I've played on here. Maybe you have seen it, but as far as I can remember, I have not.

I'll get more into this on my next point, thanks for pointing it out! You just settled my scum-lean on you to a hard scum read.

Okay.

I'm pretty correctly observing your position, where it's a player under suspicion who, instead of bringing up their content as a defense, decided to, unprompted, bring up scum-kill-reasonings as a defense.

Scum kills are the definition of WIFOM. Using it as your defense out of nowhere is weird as hell. Your argument being valid or not makes no difference; I'm more concerned with why you said it in the first place.

...what?

My argument in my defense being valid makes *no difference* to my defense? That is almost literally nonsense.

Since you later conclude that my argument is actually invalid, it may be something of a moot point for you. But to me it strikes me as another example of confirmation bias.

If valid arguments in my defense make no difference, I'm really not sure what I can say.

And let's go more into the argument, if you want. You are arguing that ScumMedi would have no reason to kill Pythag. In the same exact post, you bring up again that Pythag was your only strong read.

Heck, let's ALSO bring up what you posted after N1:

So the first thing you do is bring up how you had a correct Town read on Pythag. Now, you're arguing that ScumMedi had no reason to kill Pythag, despite bragging that your Town read was correct earlier.

If you can't see the scum motivation there for the kill, I don't know what's going on in your head. Kills show role and alignment. You currently are bragging about your Pythag read while also arguing unprompted that you had no reason to kill Pythag. I see quite a bit of scum motivation there.

If I'm understanding correctly, what you're saying is that bringing up the fact that I had a correct read on Pythag earns me some town cred, and therefore would be beneficial to me as scum?

I guess there's some truth to that, although I personally think it would be less valuable to scum-Medi than a living Pythag with a slight town-lean.

However, if I wanted to increase my credibility with the town, why wouldn't I have identified *another* player as strong-town (one who didn't have a town read on me) and NKed them instead? From the perspective of the scum-Medi that you've imagined who set up this to bolster his town credibility, wouldn't this be easily the preferable option? Bolster my town cred with the rest of the players, while *also* leaving alive the player with whom I presumably already had some amount of town cred?

That said, I acknowledge that part of the reason I initially brought up my read on Pythag was in hopes that it would help me seem more credible to the town. I don't really think that's scummy, given that every player in this game should want to increase their credibility with the town.


I kind of feel like most of your points fall apart if they're not read with the presumption of "Medi is scum" already in place. We'll see what the rest of the players think, I guess.

All that said, I actually don't think I would be a horrible lynch right now (as townie lynches go). I've honestly been struggling to make any meaningful contribution to town (hopefully I'm just out of practice and not getting dumber), and I feel like my lynch would be reasonably information-rich for the town. I'd prefer to live, but that has more to do with the numbers than any value I feel like I'd have as an actual player.

I'm sure Werekill will look at that statement and interpret it as some kind of scum headgame or meta-play or something, but really I've just been floundering all game. It's a novel and unpleasant experience.