Ok, since we are 2 days before the ballot end, I shall do my probably last post here before the ballot ends to look back on his chances and my support effort here.
Because if you haven't realised yet, after the ballot ends, there won't be any influence much to do any character as dlc for ssb4 (it likely will just ends after some point). The ballot would be used for ssb5 but as far as ssb4 is concerned, after the ballot, it's jsut the end of it, there would probably be a small selection chosen in the game and that would be it.
Meaning that my goal here to share his support is kinda done. Actually, it was done since I'll say 1-2 months and here's why.
You would have probably noticed that this thread got A LOT stall some motnhs ago and you would also notice that I wasn't as active on it. The reason is because I realised that for SB and I would guess tumblr (I did made progress there btw) for me I got as far as I could. So, knowing this it would do nothing to keep bumping the thread, it was just already done at this point and it was just time for me to move on.
This actually doesn't mean I left support and OP, no, it just means that I did everything I could be able to to share the idea and I reached the limit of what i could do. In fact, at the beginning of the ballot, I was VERY active here and tumblr and I am sure it made some progress, but it's jsut normal to be dead now. I know for a fact that paper mario supporters are silent, which is why I always see him as underrated.
So, with that out of the way, should we still hope?
In all honestly, I would say yes. I realised that it really doesn't matter how silent the supporters are because for not much you coudl ahve done to share support even my effort weren't THAT much, it's impressive to still be standing in polls. Seriously, even in JP which
@PushDustIn already told that they don't take the ballot as serious as in America, even there it was long standing. Even before the ballot.....even there it was the same as after it.
And what is even more impressive is how his series isn't in the best position and wasn't. I still think paper jam can lead to a fix, but when it was unheard of, you would except SS to make him less popular, but no, it just stayed there.
So his popularity blew my mind several times because of this which is why I can even tell it's realistic to think he coudl be in. It's even thinkable to think he could be in ssb5 if not in ssb4 because the ballot woudl be used for it.
As to how much......this is where I can't tell. If I remove consideration of the mii costumes, I would say it's simple, kkr, paper mario, maybe characters like inklings, bdee or if you still have fate, wolf (I don't tbh). Then I woudl say that these are good standing and should be likely to be in and such or at least likely enough to consider them.
But the costumes do exists and I can't help but think kkr got affected by it. So, If I actually have to say ONLY one character that I think is most likely, it woudl be paper mario, but the problem here is that with how much it chnaged, idk anymore. Would Sakurai think it would be overkill for the mario series? Would he change his mind based on the ballot? Was he even considered before? If I had the answer to some of these kind of questions, then I coudl tell, but none of us has them.
So,....what can I say? He is one of the msot likely, that.....coudl be sure, but it doesn't mean much. it even depends on the number of stuff we would get, apparently, if we base our view on only the data we got, there's only 2 characters remaning. I personally think vets are done, seriously, I don't really see why they would let the ballot decide their chances tbh.....it feels too weird.
So if it's only 2 newcomers, I would still think he is one of the msot likely EVEN if you assume SK is one of them (which I am not sure tbh).
so basically, the big TL;DR of his chance is "very good, but idk tbh".
Now, before I end this post, I jsut want to tell about something I got a bit worried......salts.
Sure, I excpet salts no matter what, but I am more worried of the salts that would happen if Paper Mario isn't in than him being in at all. Like, guys, I need to remind you that from ssbb to ssb4, we got from a not full trophies repping with some stickers......meh to a stage repping 3 games out of 4, a music repping the msot aclaimed game and the lattest one and finally, a full series repping trophies. .......this is HUGE when you think about this series being a branch of mario. Like this to me proves that the Paper Mario series is not meant to be obscure.
I am telling this because even if he wasn't in, I have NO reaosns to complain. tbh, I wouldn't see any reasons because man, getting a stage, JUST THAT, JUST THIS FACT ALONE is so huge that you mgiht as well just praise Sakurai to even have done that. I saw in my support stuff a lot of comments about stuff like blamming dr mario (the worst kind of comments imo) and basically indication of people being salty if he wasn;t in.
No one expected a stage, i freaking wanted jsut a music.
Sakurai did a lot more to fix the repping issues than what coudl have worked, he doesn't NEED to be playable. If you still would feel angry, just think about the supports thread here and just try to see how much supporters of these thread would be happy to not get their character, but get a stage mostly related to it. A lot would be ready to give a lot of support to just get SOMETHING and a stage is one of the best things to get before a playable character.
So, basically, I would suggest you to do this: if you want him, don't care if ssb4 or ssb5, or others chances, no, if you TRULY want him and legit like his series and stuff or at least feels he should be in in your heart, go vote for him, but be aware that if he's not in, there's not much reaosns to complain.
With that out of the way, I suggest you to vote and let's jsut hope he gets in
aldelaro5
).
I still have some high hopes for us, and I truly believe that we stand a good chance to make it. Let's put our speculation to rest and hope we've done enough to show Sakurai the incredible potential of this incredible character. 
But on another note, it seems everyone's been pointing to a Nintendo Direct on the 14th, and it's apparently going to be a first party character. I've been hearing that it came from a pretty reliable source. I wonder what we should make of that? Either way, all we need to do is wait a little longer to see who's up first (and hear some details on DLC character stuff, hopefully). I actually have $10 prepared, for once. 
