Theories About How Smash Switch's Roster Could Have Been Planned in Early 2016...

[Skyblade12]

Just an FYI, this is the sort of concept art Sakurai would have had for his ARMS character. Yep, he’d totally get Spring Man from that.

Sakurai has been doing all he can to keep characters true to their game. He’s not going to sacrifice that, especially when he has plenty of options left.

If Sakurai did feel he was running low on characters, he already had a solution: the ballot. It’s timing is nearly perfect to hand him a whole list of popular extant characters to choose from. Why would he abandon the design principles of the series if he didn’t have to?

 

[FamicomDisk]

I think a mix of #1 and #2 is the most likely route, though perhaps not the same amount/franchises that you suggested - I personally see a bigger starting pool of newcomers. First, Sakurai has historically had many of the characters decided from early in development. So this lines up with your first theory - many of the characters are decided early on, and then a few are added later into development. I agree that many of these would be Switch characters, though it is worth remembering that Sakurai does have access to Nintendo documents, so I believe he could’ve known about development of these games before they were announced, allowing for earlier inclusions. While these references would, of course, be limited at first, like the early ARMS picture that Skyblade12 posted, they could start developing a catch-all ARMS character with the concept. Then, as development of these games continued, the characters could be polished and given their real designs. Placeholders could be used to allow the concept to be worked on!

Second, the Japanese Smash Ballot had a bit of text that was absent from other regions’ ballots. Here’s the Japanese Ballot, translated by SourceGaming: the noteworthy part is below the voting fields, where it says, “The information received from this vote (Henceforth known as Submission Data) will be use for consideration for this software’s fighting characters,etc and for reference for future software”. So that’s pretty clear confirmation that they’ll be using the Ballot as reference for Smash 5! It’s possible that the reason they only brought one Ballot character into Smash 4 - Bayonetta - is because they were saving the rest of them for Smash 5, where many of the newcomers are directly influenced by our votes, meaning highly voted characters have a good shot of making it. This makes sense, since the highly voted ones are the ones people want most, and would get the majority of people the most excited.

So I definitely see a mix of your theories being the most likely scenario! He won’t go off the Ballot exclusively, but it will be used for choosing a number of newcomers.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I should have clarified it earlier, but much like last-minute clones, these Switch characters would be added midway in development. So around a point in 2017, Sakurai would have a more clear picture of how he can implement an ARMS character. This combined with my points of Sakurai giving his all for Smash Switch development, and I feel there would be enough time for an ARMS character to be implemented in the roster.

 

[Skyblade12]

Another problem: what if the game is delayed or isn’t released? Remember when Sakurai spent all that time developing a Pikmin 4 character...only for the game to have vanished for over four years? Why would he risk the development time?

 

[BluePikmin11]

He spent time making a Pikmin 4 character in Smash 4? I thought Alph was intended to be added in Smash 4? Where are you getting that information?

 

[FamicomDisk]

I should have clarified it earlier, but much like last-minute clones, these Switch characters would be added midway in development. So around a point in 2017, Sakurai would have a more clear picture of how he can implement an ARMS character. This combined with my points of Sakurai giving his all for Smash Switch development, and I feel there would be enough time for an ARMS character to be implemented in the roster.

Yeah. And for Rex and Pyra, development on Xenoblade 2 started during the development of Xenoblade X, meaning that, at the latest, development began in April 2015. While designs likely weren’t finalized yet, the concept of Driver and Blade probably was, seeing how integral it is to the game, so they could’ve started with that.

 

[Skyblade12]

I was making a point. Imagine if he HAD. All that development time wasted. Because a game that was announced with plenty of time to go still hasn’t released. How many future projects would he have to spend development time on, not knowing if they’d be scrapped, delayed, or reimagined. Every one that had an error would cut a character from the roster, damaging a roster you’re worried can already not fill enough spaces. As well as waste development time that could go toward characters people already know and want.

 

[FamicomDisk]

That’s a fair point I hadn’t considered, actually. Only Roy and Corrin were in Smash before their own game released. It’s possible he wouldn’t want to take the risk of having more characters end up like that if they ended up delayed.

 

[Skyblade12]

That’s a fair point I hadn’t considered, actually. Only two characters - Roy and Corrin - were in Smash before their own game released. It’s possible he wouldn’t want to take the risk of having more characters end up like that if they ended up delayed.

Corrin’s game had already released in Japan.
Roy was the only character to debut in Smash, and he was a clone.

 

[FamicomDisk]

Corrin’s game had already released in Japan.
Roy was the only character to debut in Smash, and he was a clone.

Yeah, that makes sense. I still see a few Switch characters making it in though, probably implemented late into development as they found that games would be releasing on schedule.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I mean, if Sakurai were considering an ARMS character around 2017, he would probably have a good idea of how close ARMS is finishing with the development team. And with the major Nintendo Switch games being able to be developed and released in time on their announced date, I do not think he would have doubt, but rather further assurance the game would finish in time. Based on the gameplay back in the January 2017 Nintendo Direct, it seemed like ARMS was close to finishing in development, with balancing being the only thing left for the team to do. And again, these Switch characters would be developed midway through the Smash Switch cycle, acting more as bonuses rather than affecting the actual main roster much like clones.

Though thinking further in the future, in the scenario that 2017 Switch characters happen, but happen to be nearly finished near the release date and get cut, there would be little pressure. They would just move the development of Spring Man to DLC. I do not think adding Spring Man would be as damaging and as pressuring as you would think.

 

[Koopaul]

I don't think Sakurai looks at the characters that didn't make it from his project plan and makes them assist trophies.

Well I sort of meant that under normal circumstances lesser characters were ones Sakurai would have instantly tossed into the assist trophy bin. Not even considering them in the project plan because of how small they were, but still wanted to give them a part. But now under desperate circumstances, lesser characters might have a better shot.

I am not saying that he will take old assist trophies and upgrade them to a full fledge characters. I think that's unlikely. I'm saying he's more desperate for characters and fresh new characters like Qbby (from Boxboy!), Mallo (from Pushmo), and other eShop titles that normally would have just been assist trophies might have a better chance.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

It depends when the project plan was made.
If it was finalised by, say, november 2016, Sakurai could easily have taken inspiration from the headliners in the January Switch Presentation without requiring that much flexibility or having to go off early designs.

I think there are a few characters left to consider from the WiiU/3DS era.
Hyrule Warriors released, and while possibly overshadowed by Breath of the Wild, it still gives us interesting takes on Zelda characters.
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze could give us Dixie Kong or Cranky and for Mario characters, Captain Toad and Paper Mario were both prominent in the WiiU's life cycle, with Captain Toad starring in 3D World and his own game, and Paper Mario resurfacing at the end of the cycle with Color Splash and Paper Jam.
New Leaf and the Mario Kart 8 DLC could've given Isabelle the edge to get in this time.
Xenoblade X, while overshadowed by Xenoblade 2, still introduces Elma, who can bring a lot to the table as well.
On top of that, there's Sakurai's usual creativity and the data of an official fan-poll, so the Switch's headliners (most notably Breath of the Wild, ARMS and Xenoblade 2) aren't neccesary to get a worthwhile roster

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

It depends when the project plan was made.
If it was finalised by, say, november 2016, Sakurai could easily have taken inspiration from the headliners in the January Switch Presentation without requiring that much flexibility or having to go off early designs.

I think there are a few characters left to consider from the WiiU/3DS era.
Hyrule Warriors released, and while possibly overshadowed by Breath of the Wild, it still gives us interesting takes on Zelda characters.
Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze could give us Dixie Kong or Cranky and for Mario characters, Captain Toad and Paper Mario were both prominent in the WiiU's life cycle, with Captain Toad starring in 3D World and his own game, and Paper Mario resurfacing at the end of the cycle with Color Splash and Paper Jam.
New Leaf and the Mario Kart 8 DLC could've given Isabelle the edge to get in this time.
Xenoblade X, while overshadowed by Xenoblade 2, still introduces Elma, who can bring a lot to the table as well.
On top of that, there's Sakurai's usual creativity and the data of an official fan-poll, so the Switch's headliners (most notably Breath of the Wild, ARMS and Xenoblade 2) aren't neccesary to get a worthwhile roster

I think that's a little late for the project plan, Corrin and bayo dropped in february and then sakurai took a small break I believe before getting started on the next project, which we now know is smash. I'd think it'd be completed in summer tbh.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

I think that's a little late for the project plan, Corrin and bayo dropped in february and then sakurai took a small break I believe before getting started on the next project, which we now know is smash. I'd think it'd be completed in summer tbh.

Have you seen the theory (I think I first saw it on Source Gaming) that Smash Switch was planned as a port launch title for the Switch, hence it's almost immediate start time after the end of dlc, and was basically going to be Smash 4 with a few additions such as Inklings.

Then down the line they decided to turn it into a new game, possibly due to Zelda being released as the big launch title with Mario Odyssey releasing a few months later. This would mean Sakurai might have two project plans, one he created earlier on thinking it would be a quick port, and one closer to the end of 2016 which means he might have been able to pull from the Switch January presentation.

I think the only thing backing this up was a bunch of possibly false rumors about a Smash port coming out in 2017 that seemed to go nowhere. I'm just bias and hoping for Arms to have a chance XD. Have you considered this Blue? What's your thoughts?

(JUST WANNA ADD THIS IS ALL SUPER SPECULATION AND BASED OFF MORE HOPES AND DREAMS THAN ANYTHING ELSE)

 

[BluePikmin11]

Here is my personal stance on the obscure Nintendo IP newcomer selection deal. There is something about Smash Switch's newcomer selection consisting of obscure unrepresented Nintendo IPs that really bothers me.

Even though there are not as many big IPs to choose playable characters out of, I do not think he will be exploring the smaller IPs to choose his characters. I just think Sakurai will limit Nintendo IPs getting character representation to ones that had some degree of success and notable critical reception like Earthbound, Pikmin, or Xenoblade. If anything, ballot characters are going to be a bigger influence for Nintendo character consideration. But even then, some of the Nintendo characters that likely ranked high in the ballot I know of like K. Rool and Isaac face the same major issues as in Smash 4. At best, I think the ballot will at most influence third-party choices. If Sakurai hits a wall with choosing more Nintendo newcomers, I think he will pick 3rd-parties from very successful, iconic franchises to compensate for a potentially smaller newcomer selection of Nintendo characters and to reach a wider audience into playing Smash. Giving playability to obscure Nintendo IPs by comparison feel like a last-resort option. It does not feel like a direction Sakurai would go to.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Here is my personal stance on the obscure Nintendo IP newcomer selection deal. There is something about Smash Switch's newcomer selection consisting of obscure unrepresented Nintendo IPs that really bothers me.

Even though there are not as many big IPs to choose playable characters out of, I do not think he will be exploring the smaller IPs to choose his characters. I just think Sakurai will limit Nintendo IPs getting character representation to ones that had some degree of success and notable critical reception like Earthbound, Pikmin, or Xenoblade. If anything, ballot characters are going to be a bigger influence for Nintendo character consideration. But even then, some of the Nintendo characters that likely ranked high in the ballot I know of like K. Rool and Isaac face the same major issues as in Smash 4. At best, I think the ballot will at most influence third-party choices. If Sakurai hits a wall with choosing more Nintendo newcomers, I think he will pick 3rd-parties from very successful, iconic franchises to compensate for a potentially smaller newcomer selection of Nintendo characters and to reach a wider audience into playing Smash. Giving playability to obscure Nintendo IPs by comparison feel like a last-resort option. It does not feel like a direction Sakurai would go to.

I agree in that it feels like adding characters for the sake of characters. I think he will look to see if those characters offer something unique as fighters , something he clearly cared about in Smash 4, over just representing IPs that haven't yet been repped with a character yet.

Your point about third parties makes sense, but I don't know if Sakurai would necessarily think of third parties as compensation for a smaller newcomer pool. That's also coming from my bias that first party characters excite me a lot more than third parties though. Just hoping the series doesn't get over saturated with guest characters.

EDIT: Actually if you look only at Smash 4's unique newcomers (Rosalina, Bowser Jr., Little Mac, Palutena, Robin, Duck Hunt, Greninja, Villager, Wii Fit, Shulk, Corrin, Pac Man, Meg Man, Ryu, Cloud and Bayonetta)
Basically one third (5/16) are third party newcomers and I think we can expect something similar, especially when including DLC.

 

[Organization XIII]

EDIT: Actually if you look only at Smash 4's unique newcomers (Rosalina, Bowser Jr., Little Mac, Palutena, Robin, Duck Hunt, Greninja, Villager, Wii Fit, Shulk, Corrin, Pac Man, Meg Man, Ryu, Cloud and Bayonetta)
Basically one third (5/16) are third party newcomers and I think we can expect something similar, especially when including DLC.

I don't know about that Sakurai himself said he doesn't want to add too many 3rd parties and that there aren't too many choices for 3rd parties left

At best, I think the ballot will at most influence third-party choices. If Sakurai hits a wall with choosing more Nintendo newcomers, I think he will pick 3rd-parties from very successful, iconic franchises to compensate for a potentially smaller newcomer selection of Nintendo characters and to reach a wider audience into playing Smash. Giving playability to obscure Nintendo IPs by comparison feel like a last-resort option. It does not feel like a direction Sakurai would go to.

I don't think it's a good idea to think the ballot will only influence 3rd party choices. Sakurai has a list of all the characters the world wants to see and to think that won't carry over into Nintendo choices as well is probably not wise. More than likely the ballot data will be combed through by Sakurai for characters he finds interesting and first/second parties will certainly be included in that. Sakurai has never seemed shy about adding more obscure elements into Smash, in fact Shulk himself is probably one of the most niche choices he could have made. Popularity had never been the most important thing with Sakurai.

 

[VexTheHex]

It's interesting thinking the roster was planned in 2016 cause that could really hurt Spring Man and Rex's chances. It's possible though that Sakurai talked with the teams and found out that a "stretch arm combat game" and "Xenoblade game focusing on a guy using this type of gimmick sword" were passed onto him. He could then play with the idea to see if they could work. Stretch arms combatant could easily catch his eye as something the roster doesn't have. So the placeholders could be set while their designs were finalized. Then they would be polished up before release. Though both could be delayed for DLC, but that's arguable since Ballot choices would likely sell better. And every company wants the money, unless Spring Man and Rex were free DLC to get people hyped for upcoming paid content?

Also I love the speculation the Roster was made in 2016. That was the year Greninja was crowned the most popular Pokemon in Japan. And yet some people throw Greninja into the most likely to be cut list cause he isn't relevant or popular enough.