Theories About How Smash Switch's Roster Could Have Been Planned in Early 2016...

[BluePikmin11]

Recently, I have been inspired by @BKupa666 's incredibly-detailed analysis on the transition of the Brawl speculation community to the Smash 4 speculation community. It made me think hard about several things regarding relevance that could affect the potential selection of newcomers for Smash Switch, but I had no idea how the process would work. So I talked with my friend Aurora Jenny on Discord to discuss about the topic further, and I sparked a new theory. We kept discussing the topic further, filling in the gaps and holes that would make the theory feel sound. And now, I have created multiple theories that could potentially be the final Smash Switch roster plan.

Theory 1:

Sakurai starts a roster plan with a small set of newcomers in early 2016:

Sakurai adds a small set newcomers and third-parties at the time of early 2016. You have the token retro, historical retro, new Nintendo IPS, the, 3rd-parties, and additions from already represented franchises. But outside of that, the Nintendo newcomer selection is considered limited. With all the things that Sakurai could have been noted of like many upcoming Nintendo NX game releases and multiple games being released too late of the 6 month time period of roster consideration despite being in development for a while (Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and FE: Echoes being released in 2017 come to mind), it puts Sakurai in a tight situation.

Sakurai changes his mindset on deciding newcomers in a way that provides flexibility to being able to choose unique newcomers and content from 2017 to fill the newcomer selection with. With only needing to work on one version of Smash now and the experience he has with making two versions AND DLC back in Smash 4, which would allow him to efficiently add characters like Rex or Celica last minute at around a period in 2017. Sakurai gives his all developing Smash Switch, just like in Melee when the team only had 13 months to develop a Super Smash Bros. sequel to make it in time for Gamecube release. This would be a similar situation for Smash Switch, except development is given more time thanks to a 2018 release. The experience he has could allow a newcomer selection like this to happen:

Consider this. Why make a new Smash Switch game now when there is little to nothing to represent major characters from the 2014 to mid-way of 2016? There is nothing major to consider, where the Wii U & 3DS era has little to offer in terms of newcomers and content now, especially when Smash 4 DLC filled in a few notable gaps of that era's content such as the Mario Maker stage and Corrin. Unless, the 2017 convenience theory is taken into huge consideration. Convenience and flexibility play a big part for 1/3 of the newcomer selection.

PROS:
-
-
-
-
-

CONS
-
-
-
-
-

Theory 2:

Sakurai adds several Nintendo newcomers based on the ballot, third-parties included. Last-minute clones based on games releasing in 2017-2018 are only present and the Switch content has little to no bearing on Sakurai's initial roster plan.

PROS:
-
-
-
-
-

CONS
-
-
-
-
-

But what do you think? Again, there are likely holes and misalignments in this rough, complex theory, but this is probably the closest I have accomplished with trying to connect Switch relevance with Smash's roster plan. I feel like I have went one step further into figuring out Sakurai. If there is anything about the theory that needs to be cleaned up, please let me know. I guess for right now, you could say this is my current personal mindset on Smash speculation. There are probably many questions regarding my newcomer choices, but I would like for us as a community to focus on discussing the effects of Switch relevance to newcomer selection for right now to progress on Smash speculation as a community.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Interesting post. But there is two question I have

1. Would Sakurai really make 2 different project plans outside of a situation where Smash switch was originally intended to be a port but plans changed halfway through (a theory I personally don't believe in)?
2. The Ballot confirmed that results would be used for future games. I think you're ignoring the factor of ballot characters, which would help fill out the newcomer roster for this game. Why not consider this?

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Recently, I have been inspired by @BKupa666 's incredibly-detailed analysis on the transition of the Brawl speculation community to the Smash 4 speculation community. It made me think hard about several things regarding relevance that could affect the potential selection of newcomers for Smash Switch, but I had no idea how the process would work. So I talked with my friend Aurora Jenny on Discord to discuss about the topic further, and I sparked a new theory. We kept discussing the topic further, filling in the gaps and holes that would make the theory feel sound. And now, I have created this theory that could close off several questions like Spring Man and Rex being late for consideration once and for all. I apologize if my theory has potential holes open for argument, but we can discuss and improve upon the theory together. With that, let us begin.

I personally believe the roster project plan began like this:

I think there were not many candidates left for Sakurai to add at the time of early 2016. You have the token retro, historical retro, scrapped Chorus Kids, relevant candidates like Elma/Decidueye, 3rd-parties, and a few leftover major Nintendo characters like Tom Nook/Isabelle. But outside of that, the Nintendo newcomer selection was limited. With all of the things that Sakurai could have been noted of like upcoming Nintendo NX game releases and multiple games getting released too late of the 6 month time period of roster consideration despite being in development for a while (Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and FE: Echoes being released in 2017 come to mind), it puts Sakurai in a tight situation.

I think Sakurai will change his mindset on deciding newcomers in a way that provides flexibility to being able to choose unique newcomers and content from 2017 to fill the newcomer selection with. Keep in mind that he only needs to work on one version of this game now. He has enough experience with making two versions AND DLC that would allow him to efficiently add characters like Rex or Celica last minute. I personally think Sakurai will give his all developing Smash Switch, just like in Melee when the team only had 13 months to develop a Super Smash Bros. sequel to make it in time for Gamecube release. This would be a similar situation for Smash Switch, except development is given more time thanks to a 2018 release. The experience he has could allow a newcomer selection like this to happen:

Consider this. Why make a new Smash Switch game now when there is little to nothing to represent major characters from the 2014 to mid-way of 2016? There is nothing major to consider outside of Elma/Decidueye, where the Wii U & 3DS era has little to offer now, especially when Smash 4 DLC filled in a few notable gaps of that era's content such as the Mario Maker stage and Corrin. Unless, the 2017 convenience theory is taken into consideration. Convenience and flexibility will play a big part for 1/3 of the newcomer selection.

The time he has for convenience and flexibility would also give him more time to add as many veterans from Smash 4 as possible in Smash Switch. Because Sakurai had a limited selection of newcomers to choose from, he would also be able to concentrate on implementing as many veterans as possible. Sakurai really hates cuts. Even when "characters have no future" played a factor into Lucas and Wolf's exclusion in Smash 4's base roster, the cuts he made were as minimal as possible, excluding characters heavily based on transformation and the ones based on technical limitations while keeping MOST of the unique characters. With the experience Sakurai has now and the Smash NX and the 3DS no longer being an issue, there is the possibility that everyone from Smash 4 could return.

This might seem too ideal, but this kind of roster could actually happen. Sakurai could apply all of his skills he learned with the struggles and experiences Sakurai has went through making FOUR Smash games, potentially working together along Namco Bandai in a colossal effort to create a roster that pleases almost every Smash veteran fan imaginable. But what do you think? Again, there are likely holes and misalignments in this rough, complex theory, but this is probably the closest I have accomplished with trying to connect Switch relevance with Smash's roster plan. I feel like I have went one step further into figuring out Sakurai. If there is anything about the theory that needs to be cleaned up, please let me know. I guess for right now, you could say this is my current personal mindset on Smash speculation. There are probably many questions regarding my newcomer choices, but I would like for us as a community to focus on discussing the effects of Switch relevance to newcomer selection for right now to progress on Smash speculation as a community.

The idea isn't bad although I think the project plan looked more like this than that

I don't think 2 AC characters would be added, or dr kawashima, the card guy, sora or layton.

And this doesn't take the ballot into account, we could get k rool, isaac, krystal etc, we don't know

 

[BluePikmin11]

True Blue Warrior The third-party choices I have are mainly based on the ballot. Sora, Rayman, and Layton are all likely to be very popular Smash ballot requests to be considered for the next Smash. Fan-requests are the main reason Mega Man and Cloud got in the game at all. For Nintendo newcomers, I do not think the ballot would apply to them as much and the mindset Sakurai has on Nintendo newcomers will remain the same. I originally had that thought put into the analysis, but I thought it would derail the topic. I guess there was a need for major context, but that is beside the point.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

True Blue Warrior The third-party choices I have are mainly based on the ballot. Sora, Rayman, and Layton are all likely to be very popular Smash ballot requests to be considered for the next Smash. Fan-requests are the main reason Mega Man, Ryu and Cloud got in the game at all. For Nintendo newcomers, I do not think the ballot would apply to them as much and the mindset Sakurai has on Nintendo newcomers will remain the same. I originally had that thought put into the analysis, but I thought it would derail the topic. I guess there was a need for major context, but that is beside the point.

Sora I guess, but that creates issues with disney making him potentially "unrealisable" to quote sakurai, Is layton all that popular? I honestly have no idea

 

[True Blue Warrior]

True Blue Warrior The third-party choices I have are mainly based on the ballot. Sora, Rayman, and Layton are all likely to be very popular Smash ballot requests to be considered for the next Smash. Fan-requests are the main reason Mega Man, Ryu and Cloud got in the game at all. For Nintendo newcomers, I do not think the ballot would apply to them as much and the mindset Sakurai has on Nintendo newcomers will remain the same. I originally had that thought put into the analysis, but I thought it would derail the topic. I guess there was a need for major context, but that is beside the point.

Wouldn't Sora be a licensing nightmare due to being owned by Disney? Also, fan demand was never stated to be the reason got in.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Wouldn't Sora be a licensing nightmare due to being owned by Disney? Also, fan demand was never stated to be the reason got in.

I will get to explaining that when Sora's RTC day comes in just a few days. For Ryu, you are right on that, I kinda rushed that little bit.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

How and why would the card guy or Dr. K? Very unrealistic characters that would most likely hit the AT list

Why 2 AC characters? I can understand Isabelle, but Tom Nook?

Why 2 Xeno characters? Feels like only one should get it

Is Sora even worth it? I'm pretty sure that since he's in FF/Disney games, it would be quite difficult to obtain him

 

[BluePikmin11]

This is going to far different topics than the topic I originally wanted to discuss.

Just to clarify more. What newcomers I post is subjective, you can put whatever newcomers you wish and replace Rayman with Crash or something. But the thing that is important to discuss on is how Switch content affects the Smash Switch's roster. What things do you have to say regarding that aspect, not the newcomer choices.

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

This is going to far different topics than the topic I originally wanted to discuss.

Just to clarify more. What newcomers I post is subjective, you can put whatever newcomers you wish and replace Rayman with Crash or something. But the thing that is important to discuss on is how Switch content affects the Smash Switch's roster. What things do you have to say regarding that aspect, not the newcomer choices.

I feel like switch content will affect the DLC content and the main game will be used to both represent the wii u/3ds era and ballot choices tbh.

 

[StormC]

This is going to far different topics than the topic I originally wanted to discuss.

Just to clarify more. What newcomers I post is subjective, you can put whatever newcomers you wish and replace Rayman with Crash or something. But the thing that is important to discuss on is how Switch content affects the Smash Switch's roster. What things do you have to say regarding that aspect, not the newcomer choices.

Then why did you post your predictions if the thread isn’t about them?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Then why did you post your predictions if the thread isn’t about them?

They are there to give a brief visual example to give people an idea of what could happen to the roster.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

People? Can we please focus on the theory, rather than the character selection he chose to represent the theory? Yes, those are his choices and thoughts, but the point here lies in the methodology of selection and mindset.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Tyou can put whatever newcomers you wish and replace Rayman with Crash or something.

Now we're talking

Let's talk about why Crash is a deserving contender for Smash

Then why did you post your predictions if the thread isn’t about them?

Becasue it's Blue

 

[DJ3DS]

True Blue Warrior The third-party choices I have are mainly based on the ballot. Sora, Rayman, and Layton are all likely to be very popular Smash ballot requests to be considered for the next Smash. Fan-requests are the main reason Mega Man and Cloud got in the game at all. For Nintendo newcomers, I do not think the ballot would apply to them as much and the mindset Sakurai has on Nintendo newcomers will remain the same. I originally had that thought put into the analysis, but I thought it would derail the topic. I guess there was a need for major context, but that is beside the point.

Why do you think the ballot would not affect choice of Nintendo newcomers? I've seen nothing to suggest this and the idea that Nintendo would listen to fan requests on the stuff that is more difficult to negotiate but not on their own properties seems odd to me.

As far as the ballot goes i think you need to argue all in or all out - it doesn't seem fair to use it for third parties but ignore it for first parties.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Why do you think the ballot would not affect choice of Nintendo newcomers? I've seen nothing to suggest this and the idea that Nintendo would listen to fan requests on the stuff that is more difficult to negotiate but not on their own properties seems odd to me.

To be fair, it would be no more odd than 3/4th of the DLC newcomer being third-party character with the one Nintendo newcomer being a character whose inclusion had nothing to do with fan demand.

Becasue it's Blue

Look, we all love to make fun out of floating heads and whatnot, but this isn't the thread for it!

 

[Aurora Jenny]

I may be wrong, but Yeah, the Ballot has a LOT of weight behind it, but I imagine they're still subject to whatever rules Sakurai are playing by this time around. So while he will give them consideration, it's not set. At least in regards to all the 1st party suggestions that are on that list.

 

[BluePikmin11]

DJ3DS I think the highly popular Nintendo requests will definitely be considered, but most of the characters like K. Rool, Isaac, and Waluigi remain in the same problematic situations as in Smash 4 that I could see none of the potentially top Nintendo newcomers get in as playable. They could be chosen by ballot popularity and gameplay potential alone, but I do not know how open and willing Sakurai to do that.

For a brief example, I may be a supporter of Waluigi, but that still does not change that his situation remains the same and is not as notably marketed as Rosalina now to be considered for playability. I would further clarify, but we should move the discussion in the Official Smash Switch Discussion Thread if you wanna get into those specifics. That will derail the thread topic further.

For now, you guys can imagine the newcomer selection to whatever you please for better context, whether you place high emphasis on ballot characters on not. But think about Sakurai's situation and how the Switch games that came out in 2017 would change his view and highly consider unique newcomers and content from that year for last-minute additions.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Look, we all love to make fun out of floating heads and whatnot, but this isn't the thread for it!

...not the right time to use the troll face Blue. Try again when it's appropriate.


Now what made you think you figured out Sakurai with how you can assume we would get that amount of characters (that is IF we get the predicted amount)?

 

[Aurora Jenny]

I can safely say there is no way this is accurate, just the most accurate right now, given how little we know so far of the current roster and past behavior in decisions. We're definitely going to have a better idea by E3 or sooner when the roster available for the Smash Tourney is unveiled. This is most definitely a best guess scenario based on Logic and evidence that fits with what we presently know.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

One issue I have with predicting ballot picks is we don't know the results. So if King K. Rool and Ridley get in it'll be because of the ballot and not because they were already known to be requested? What about Wolf is that because the ballot? Or maybe just because Sakurai hates cutting veterans.

It really sucks that we don't know the ballot results and thus we can't really make predictions based off it.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

And therein lies the problem. I think the safest thing to assume is that the ballot adds a point in a character's favor beyond being requested. However, the MAIN point to consider for the Ballot requests is that it gives those characters that missed their window in Smash 4 & 5 a second chance they wouldn't other wise be offered. As opposed to those that continue to have high fan appeal and continued appearances in their franchise.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

One issue I have with predicting ballot picks is we don't know the results. So if King K. Rool and Ridley get in it'll be because of the ballot and not because they were already known to be requested? What about Wolf is that because the ballot? Or maybe just because Sakurai hates cutting veterans.

It really sucks that we don't know the ballot results and thus we can't really make predictions based off it.

I think it's simpler than you make it out to be. Any character selected from the ballot would be stated so. Those that weren't would have nothing to do with the ballot.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

I think it's simpler than you make it out to be. Any character selected from the ballot would be stated so. Those that weren't would have nothing to do with the ballot.

Only if that information is given. We need newcomer confirmations :/

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Only if that information is given. We need newcomer confirmations :/

I am sure there will be more information in one month.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Agreed. For now, this is the best theory we can come up with till we have more information.

 

[FamicomDisk]

Keep in mind that while the official results weren't released, you can look around for polls people did to see who others were voting for, and see who placed consistently high.

Here are a few - one from Reddit, the frequently shared Japanese poll, and one from right here on Smashboards, just to name a few. A few characters, like Isaac and K. Rool, are consistently high, so it's probably safe to assume they performed well on the actual ballot.

Also, BluePikmin11 , I'm curious. You said that Sora, Rayman, and Layton were popular picks. While they're not picks I want personally, I do know that Sora and Rayman have passionate supporters. When was Layton popular, though? I'm not trying to downtalk your idea, I'm just genuinely curious. Is there a big following for him I haven't noticed much?

 

[Bebe Mignon]

Personally, I feel the roster of Smash Switch will focus on three categories.

1. Ballot
For some reason, many people keep overlooking the Ballot. It was explicitly stated that characters from the Ballot would be taken into consideration for future Smash titles. And so I expect a good chunk of newcomers (1st and 3rd party) to come from this category.

2. Wii U/3DS era characters
Traditionally, Smash games tend to focus on games from the previous generation of console. I think it is fatally flawed to assume that Wii U/3DS era characters won't get in Smash because the games on both consoles didn't perform as well as they could have. Smash is a celebration of Nintendo's history--it would be a huge disservice to this era to not include such characters. With the ballot characters to consider, I feel this one will not get as strong of a focus like previous Smash games.

3. Switch era characters
The smartest thing for Nintendo would be relegating the Switch era characters to DLC. This would promote recent and upcoming Nintendo titles for the Switch. The allure of new characters as DLC would be far greater than the return of previously cut veterans.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that Nintendo may decide to run the ballot again before DLC comes out. Depending on how many characters are drawn from the previous ballot, Sakurai may want an updated list to accurately gauge current popular characters. It's better to select characters from an updated list of popular characters rather than drawing from lesser popular characters from a couple years ago. I don't know if what I'm saying makes sense...I don't know how to word it differently.

 

[Skyblade12]

I wanted to focus on the theory, but the problem is, the roster he selected is integral to the theory, so I can’t.

Blue, your roster sucks, and basically invalidates your entire premise.

“Nintendo doesn’t have a lot of All-Stars left, so Sakurai may have drastically changed how he chooses characters.”

Yet you include a lot of characters who are far lesser known and harder to realize than many of Nintendo’s remaining characters. Animal Crossing, a series that Sakurai didn’t think worked in Smash at all originally, gets two newcomers. Okay, in that case, why not add two Pokémon? Two Fire Emblem reps? Etcetera?

But let’s ignore that and focus on who you overlooked in your initial roster: K. Rool, Isaac, Waluigi, Dixie, Captain Toad, Andy, Ashley, Daisy, Impa, Vaati...

Just check the newcomer speculation page. The list goes on. Many of these characters have huge fan support, and votes on the ballot. They’re all more likely than two Animal Crossing characters or Dr. Andross.

This entire theory boils down to “I don’t think Sakurai would choose a lot of the Nintendo characters left, so he would throw away his selection criteria and systems and choose this one instead.” But just because you don’t think certain characters work, doesn’t mean other people agree, and certainly not that Sakurai would. Also, if he’s changing his criteria, it’s far more likely that he’d go for more older characters than try to make concept art into playable characters that would properly represent their future games.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I do not know about that kind of logic in terms of Nintendo newcomer additions Skyblade, but if you wanna make things easier to visualize brief examples, just apply your personal list of predictions and just think about the idea of Switch content like (BOTW Link, Rex, Mario Odyssey, ARMS) and applying that to Sakurai's roster situation.

We all have different perceptions, but regardless of who you choose, the core idea of the theory mostly remains the same.

 

[Skyblade12]

I do not know about that kind of logic in terms of Nintendo newcomer additions Skyblade, but if you wanna make things easier to visualize brief examples, just apply your personal list of predictions and just think about the idea of Switch content like (BOTW Link, Rex, Mario Odyssey, ARMS) and applying that to Sakurai's roster situation.

Whoever you choose, the core idea of the theory mostly remains the same.

Except is doesn’t. Because your theory is based on the idea that Nintendo doesn’t have characters left. When it clearly does. You prove this in your first roster. A quick jaunt down Smashboards or a look at the ballot would prove the same thing.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I think I will heavily edit the roster image examples/specific character suggestions away that are not Switch related stuff so we can actually talk about the topic. I might possibly edit the analysis content as well. But I have to be off now, because it is too late at night here to edit images and confront in an argument right now.

If there are any other perspectives people are willing to share, I will definitely read over them tomorrow morning. Today has been pretty interesting.

 

[Organization XIII]

I think the first thing I would argue is the character selection. I don't mean the character themselves but rather the amount. Sakurai stated in an interview that he always plans more characters than feasibly make it. That makes sense, in development you're going to want plenty of back up characters as you're going to make a bunch of characters at the same time and as deadlines approach and problems arise slowly the characters that do end up in the game are whittled down. So the initial newcomer selection is likely going to be far higher than anything we will actually see. Also since Sakurai admitted he didn't all the characters on Smash 4's design document didn't make it, they could easily be moved to Smash 5's design document meaning there are likely a good number of characters Sakurai plans on adding (I think the interview said it had about 100 characters but that could be me misremembering so don't quote me). They might not be as relevant as they were in during Smash 4 selection but it would certainly help fill the roster. Also, many others have pointed this out but you don't factor in the ballot at all. There were Japan exclusive polls for Melee and Brawl (possibly 4 but I don't know for sure) and newcomers came from those polls. Now Sakurai has a list of characters the entire world wants so it would be a delusion to think that won't play a big hand in who gets added this game, we didn't even need the confirmation that it will be used for future titles it was so obvious, though nice to have all the same. I will say I think this Smash bros won't be focused so much on relevant characters this time just due to how few notable games were released during the time frame of roster selection so we are likely to see more obscure picks, though Sakurai could throw us for a loop and add mostly characters from games that were in development at the time. I think the latter scenario is pretty unlikely so I am sure we will be seeing more lesser known characters. Just have to wait until E3 to know for sure.

 

[Koopaul]

Perhaps Sakurai will choose some more smaller franchise characters that were still quite successful and still recent and relevant like Qbby from BoxBoy. That's another option to consider.

Even though there aren't that many giants from Nintendo to include there are still smaller stars. And it's a possibility, with that knowledge, he will go for those smaller characters... If they offer something unique and fresh of course.

In the past these lesser stars would just be assist trophies, but now? Who knows? Didn't Sakurai himself say some Assist Trophies are characters who didn't quite make it to being a full fledge fighter?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Isabelle, Ashley, Captain Toad, Bandana Dee, Paper Mario and Dixie Kong are all characters who were active during the 2014-2016 era. Add in 4 to 6 Nintendo ballot characters (assuming they aren't any of the characters I listed since an overlap is possible), add in an old school character (such as Excitebiker), add in two new third-party characters, add in a Gen 7 Pokemon and a couple of WFT-esque curveballs and you have a decent selection of newcomer characters without the "need" for Switch debuts. People underestimate Sakurai and whilst the proposed newcomer roster is not based off probability as much as possibilities(so debating about the likelihood of certain characters is missing the point). People thought we were scraping the bottom of the barrel with Smash 4 during speculation with the perception that there weren't much left. I see history repeating itself.

Perhaps Sakurai will choose some more smaller franchise characters that were still quite successful and still recent and relevant like Qbby from BoxBoy. That's another option to consider.

Even though there aren't that many giants from Nintendo to include there are still smaller stars. And it's a possibility, with that knowledge, he will go for those smaller characters... If they offer something unique and fresh of course.

In the past these lesser stars would just be assist trophies, but now? Who knows? Didn't Sakurai himself say some Assist Trophies are characters who didn't quite make it to being a full fledge fighter?

Wasn't that on the Brawl dojo?

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Wasn't that on the Brawl dojo?

http://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/items/assist/assist01.html

Right at the bottom. I read that as unrealizable fighters (Nintendogs and Metroids) and not quite fighters who were just short of making it. Obviously we've had a character go from assist tropy to playable and we probably will again, I'm just saying that just from this quote I don't think Sakurai looks at the characters that didn't make it from his project plan and makes them assist trophies.

 

[ErenJager]

I hate to be that guy, but this is clearly a hypothesis, not a theory.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ok, so I want the OP and thread topic to change to discuss several theories about the roster plan, and have come up with multiple theories:

Theory 1:

1. Sakurai starts a roster plan with a small set of newcomers in early 2016.

2. Sakurai starts adding a few last-minute additions, 2017 Switch characters and clones based on games releasing in 2017-2018 come in the game as last-minute additions.

Theory 2:

Sakurai uses the ballot to add several Nintendo newcomers based on the ballot, third-parties included. Last-minute clones based on games releasing in 2017-2018 are only present and the Switch content has little to no bearing on Sakurai's initial roster plan.

I will edit the OP analysis real soon, but are there any other kinds of roster plans that you can see happening? I plan to list pros and cons for each theory for fairness. I also definitely need in-depth reasons on why Sakurai would go for Theory #2. What exactly would make Sakurai transition to such decisions? I personally do not understand it yet.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Ok, so I want the OP and thread topic to change to discuss several theories about the roster plan, and have come up with multiple theories:

Theory 1:

1. Sakurai starts a roster plan with a small set of newcomers in early 2016.

2. Sakurai starts adding a few last-minute additions, 2017 Switch characters and clones based on games releasing in 2017-2018 come in the game as last-minute additions.

Theory 2:

Sakurai uses the ballot to add several Nintendo newcomers based on the ballot, third-parties included. Last-minute clones based on games releasing in 2017-2018 are only present and the Switch content has little to no bearing on Sakurai's initial roster plan.

I will edit the OP analysis real soon, but are there any other kinds of roster plans that you can see happening? I plan to list pros and cons for each theory for fairness. I also definitely need in-depth reasons on why Sakurai would go for Theory #2. What exactly would make Sakurai transition to such decisions? I personally do not understand it yet.

Sorry that discussion got derailed from your roster pics but I do think this puts it in better persepctive. What do you think of the possibility of mixing 1 & 2?
I can't see him not using the ballot at all, but I agree with your original theory.
Maybe those two Nintendo reps and the Zelda one in your first could be ballot pics?

 

[BluePikmin11]

I guess that's a plausible theory with mixing them, but I would like to see in-depth reasons why Sakurai would add in Nintendo ballot additions, 3rd party ballot additions, and Switch character additions. What situation would Sakurai be in to be in those circumstances? I think I know the reasons already, but I just wanna make sure by listening to other's perspectives.