The Probable Character Roster 1.0 - Next edit: Before or After E3? You decide!

[Thirdkoopa]

Well, this is already a lot. Hopefully I've answered all well before the next edit. To ease some of you a bit more, a lot of the characters you've suggested are in the 11-20. I don't think anybody here guessed a 21-30 character yet, so that's something.

How did you make these calculations? Seems like a random number you slapped there to make it look more official.

The percentages is nowhere near as good as the colored marks, but I didn't just slap the percentages together. I didn't also make a calculation. I went by advantages at first, all other probability scales I could think of, then negatived based on disadvantages and further based on competition (which explains Shulk or Bowser Jr)

So yeah, they're not completely slapped together. It's strange how much comments I'm seeing on that than characters on here but with covering almost every character...

Ridley was laughed at by Sakurai, LITERALLY when he was asked about him being playable, and he's somehow the most likely? I don't know. I also think Mewtwo being considered flavor of the month is kind of boosh. Isaac/Matthew are also second party characters, which ave never been playable in Smash before. I also think the "overrepresentaion rule" shouldn't be applied to Junior since, in Melee, 5 of the 26 playable characters were Mario characters. If Doc didn't over rep that franchise on an even Smaller roster, how would Junior over rep it on a roster larger than Brawls was?

Also, are these top ten SOLID, or fluid? Because, I don't know about Zoroark/Gen VI Pokemon being number 10.

Here we go...

Considering Ridley's probably the 2nd most requested character (And surprisingly, dedicated to my knowledge, in Melee even) and the only real thing against him is his appearance in other places as a boss. The only other two characters I can think of who deserve close is Mewtwo (As much as I like him, even I can't see "Shoe-in" with how the Poke series is) and K. Rool (I said somewhere else 91 was already pushing it). Last I remember it wasn't laughed at, just "Hahaha it'd be hard to do" or something along those lines. Though hey, feel free to pick up a source. Though much like other debatable topics, I'm curious on other opinions. I don't need to wait for everyone, but I do like multiple people filling in for one topic.

Yeah, forgot about Isaac/Matthew's status. Though it's not that big of a deal these days, especially since Camelot and Nintendo get along almost as well as Intelligent Systems, Gamefreak, Retro, and the Mario RPG staff. Like, really, even if it was or even if they had to pay, they wouldn't go out of their way for an Assist Trophy. Actually:

More like 66%.

That quite literally means Nintendo has more rights to Golden Sun than Pokemon. Not that that surprises me, but keep that in mind.

Overpopulation issue can be applied to him still. We don't know if Sakurai doesn't want to see more reps (I'm not the best at explaining this rule so I wish I could find Toise's old version) but in a short version, he can be seen as that, especially when unlike many other series, he's for sure not officialized as the #1 choice.

FotW I've explained elsewhere on why it's marked on Roy/Mewtwo. I personally reallllllly doubt (Especially with him planned to be in all three Smash Games and still made it in one) it will actually affect Mewtwo considering... just about every advantage he does have.

GenSect I would say has a good chance (Not Zoroark as much; I just copied that picture from my previous roster because I'm lazy) - We've always got one from the newest Gen and Pokemon has shown to fall a bit more into Flavor of the Week than Fire Emblem. If we're going with what I personally think? We'll see all returners and that will be that. As this year goes on, we'll see GenSix enough to know, though. I mean the games come out in like October or November.

Top ten for now, though, with an update in the coming week and spots I still need to edit, it's very viable to change.

Mewtwo? Flavor of the week? GET OUTTA HERE!

Read the above but I'll cover in a short redux: Flavor of the Week is not just for the ones that could only have limited popularity but also for the series like that (Fire Emblem and Pokemon) when we're not 100% sure what Sakurai and the rigging staff go through for this.

I believe the chances of a Namco rep are 50/50. Though I agree that Sakurai has the final say, I have a hard time imagining Sakurai saying no to a Namco rep if they beg him Kojima-style.

I would agree with you but with Namco-Bandai working on the game and the only other two Third-Parties asides from Megaman that have any shot in hell would be from Ubisoft (Though the Rayman Legends case damps that even more) or Square (This is actually a better chance then when I was last here. Awesome.) or just leaving it alone. It's hard to percentage third-parties in the first place. Thankfully there's only one more to analyze and that's faaaaar down the list.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Is Vaati going to be anywhere on this list?

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Is Vaati going to be anywhere on this list?

Actually that's a good question. I've played almost every Zelda game and that even stumps me still a bit as I look on this.

Zelda fans, what do you think when it comes to Representative? I'm about to get working on 11-20.

 

[FalKoopa]

As much as I want Vaati, I don't see him as likely.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I really can't think of anything asides from Impa/Tetra and Toon Zelda/Ghiriam (I'm going to spell that wrong like seeven times) so I guess I won't cover too much.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Who's Terra?

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Did you play Wind Waker, Habanero?

And a good Down+B for Toon Zelda.

 

[FalKoopa]

Did you play Wind Waker, Habanero?

And a good Down+B for Toon Zelda.

He's nitpicking you for spelling her name wrong.

It's Tet-R-a.

 

[Shorts]

The quote was more " *laughs* That'd be pretty Impossible. But I suppose if we worked reallllly hard and tried our best we could, would you mind if he was slow?"

Now, this may sound kooky but that quote makes it seem like Sakurai only ever viewed Ridley as NPC status. (Espceially considering their is AT data for him as well). Ridley's best bet is Sakurai ACTUALLY reconsidering him.
http://kwiksurveys.com/s.asp?sid=3tkgn2ffap3yfcd114243
Also, brand new poll for all my pretty kitties.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Did you play Wind Waker, Habanero?

Yes I have.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Yes I have.

Oh dammit. I just noticed my typo. Let me fix that.

(I meant Tetra)

He's nitpicking you for spelling her name wrong.

It's Tet-R-a.

I blame my hatred of Phantom Hourglass. I'm seriously trying to play through that and OoT 3DS for the 20th time and I've evaluated boredom.

The quote was more " *laughs* That'd be pretty Impossible. But I suppose if we worked reallllly hard and tried our best we could, would you mind if he was slow?"

Now, this may sound kooky but that quote makes it seem like Sakurai only ever viewed Ridley as NPC status. (Espceially considering their is AT data for him as well). Ridley's best bet is Sakurai ACTUALLY reconsidering him.

Also, brand new poll for all my pretty kitties.

It's kind of a hard bake, but I'd like to hear some other thoughts in regards to this. I can see where you're coming from on that length.

Thankfully, there's only one other character I think I'll be attacking for the Programming vs Artist rule.

edit: Alright, I'm gonna get working on 11-20. Hopefully I do things pretty well...

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Tingle is another character to consider. Maybe he'll be represented by his own series (symbol is a rupee) like Yoshi and Wario are seperate from Mario.

 

[Starcutter]

Alright, I'm gonna get working on 11-20. Hopefully I do things pretty well...

Good luck!

 

[N3ON]

I'm going to be honest, I think every character except Mewtwo has their percentage too high. Some aren't too bad, like K. Rool, but I'd put him and Ridley in the 80s and (other than Mewtwo) every other character in the 70s. Some in the 60s.

Characters like Bowser Jr, the other Pokemon (of which Lucario really shouldn't be in that category, considering he's a veteran), and even Isaac having a rating that high is a little... unrealistic. I also disagree with most points under Disadvantages, and a few under Advantages, but I won't go into depth unless you honestly want criticism/critiquing of them.

Overall, the character choices as "highly probable" are decent, but I disagree with the percentages, and characters like Little Mac, Palutena, and Takamaru should also probably be there, ahead of some of the characters you have.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The quote was more " *laughs* That'd be pretty Impossible. But I suppose if we worked reallllly hard and tried our best we could, would you mind if he was slow?"

Now, this may sound kooky but that quote makes it seem like Sakurai only ever viewed Ridley as NPC status. (Espceially considering their is AT data for him as well). Ridley's best bet is Sakurai ACTUALLY reconsidering him.

The exact quote is:

"I think that would probably be pretty impossible. [Laughs] If we had put our best efforts into it, we may have been able to do it. But he might have been a little slow. Would that be all right? [Laughs]"

So in the first part of his answer he says it'd be pretty impossible and laughs. However, it does seem like he reconsiders mid-sentence, and already figured he'd be a slow character, and then proceeds to laugh again, probably in good spirit though. I know it's ridiculous to read this much into a quote, but it seems to me like he realizes mid-sentence that it really isn't "pretty impossible." The laughing seems more natural and in good spirit than anything else, it's not unnatural to laugh mid-sentence when in a good mood. I don't really read it as he laughs at the concept of Ridley as a character at least. I'm a bit biased on this particular subject, always pretty optimistic about it.

 

[N3ON]

Sakurai was obviously laughing because someone was tickling him, not because of Ridley. Jeez.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

11-20 added! Hopefully sometimes the edits being a bit stupid about spacing still look fine. I hate how it goes "Advantages-" and then puts the first advantage there instead of
"Advantages
-
-" but whatever. If nobody else minds it, yeah.

I have Lucario photoshopped into that along with Zoro when it's really suppose to be Gen six.

Really, sure, feel free to go in. Disadvantages to get harder to search up, so I'll admit I'm a bit nitpicking. If you want, just talk about what's currently on-topic. A lot of the characters up higher are a bit unrealistic, but be minded, with less choices and well-founded reasoning (plus not many characters competing into that. I guess Palutena/Chrom) it does get harder. I think right now what's really on the game is where Ridley should actually be at. I kind-of want to move the Third-Parties to their own section much like the original thread, but I might want until after E3 for that.

I can't wait to update 21-30 now after this.

Any other major thoughts? I think this 11-20 will foster up far more discussion than the first 10.

 

[Starcutter]

it really pains me to see toast up this high, while Kamek isn't up yet. I mean, I would personally put him above toadette in terms of things going towards them. but.. I really just don't like frog, okay?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Okay... This is where I have some major problems.

Sakurai has flat out said not to expect Sukapon. He has zero chance of appearing.

Little Mac is way too low.

Takamaru should be included in the retro characters.

Goroh is sadly way too high.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Well... Now things are getting up in interest.

it really pains me to see toast up this high, while Kamek isn't up yet. I mean, I would personally put him above toadette in terms of things going towards them. but.. I really just don't like frog, okay?

...Isn't this more bias? I've been trying to see good arguments created for Kamek, but it's really hard.

Sakurai has flat out said not to expect Sukapon. He has zero chance of appearing.

Can you find a link? Also, times do change, as there is different rigging equipment. I don't think Not to expect = 100% Deconfirm, but that sure as hell can knock him back to the very bottom at least.

Little Mac is way too low.

Because?... Though, if Shulk or Isaac get thrown into the trailer, expect that a bit higher.

Takamaru should be included in the retro characters.

He will be.

Goroh is sadly way too high.

What percentage/rate would you think is normal?

It gets harder and harder as we get lower and lower in characters. The last 10 are surely gonna make people screech, as they're even more of a stretch.

edit: Also so we can get this done and we can really begin to have some fun, I'll get to editing the last ten right now.

 

[Starcutter]

...Isn't this more bias? I've been trying to see good arguments created for Kamek, but it's really hard.

lets see, completed series, two new yoshi games coming out (giant plus if kamek appears in them), still a re-occuring character in yoshi AND mario, villian, and the overpopulation rule has no effect if he is regarded as yoshi. but nobody really seems to regard him as a character, so that's a minus.


and about being biased about toast, yeah. I just REEEEEEALLY don't like him. he's just too obnoxious. I'll deal with it if he gets in, but I'd rather not see that happen at all. sorry.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Can you find a link? Also, times do change, as there is different rigging equipment. I don't think Not to expect = 100% Deconfirm, but that sure as hell can knock him back to the very bottom at least.

I don't have a link but I'm sure someone has it. Ask around.

Sakurai also promised that Sukapon would be a trophy in Brawl. He didn't keep his promise. He doesn't really care about Sukapon.


Because?... Though, if Shulk or Isaac get thrown into the trailer, expect that a bit higher.

Little Mac DOMINATES Shulk and Isaac in popularity. Look at Shortie's poll. He is by far the most wanted new series newcomer.

He will be.

Yay.

What percentage/rate would you think is normal?

50%. F-Zero is currently dead and is only being kept alive with Smash Bros. We haven't got a new F-Zero game since 2004. If we get a new F-Zero game announced at E3 then Goroh's chances will skyrocket but until then, a F-Zero newcomer is unlikely.

It gets harder and harder as we get lower and lower in characters. The last 10 are surely gonna make people screech, as they're even more of a stretch.
Especially since everything in the thread is opinion. Not that opinion is bad. Your's are interesting and entertaining to read but they can also spark arguments.

Responses in red.

 

[N3ON]

I was going to go more into the first ten, but the next ten require immediate fixing.

- Palutena should be higher than some characters in the first ten
- Toad, like Bowser Jr, has a percentage too high
- Same with Goroh
- Chrom and Robin aren't the same, they don't have the same chances, they shouldn't be put together
- No retro character other than Takamaru has a 74% chance of inclusion, waaaay too high
- Little Mac should be above many of these characters
- Again, Ghirahim and Toon Zelda aren't the same, they don't have the same chances, they should be separate. And lower.
- Isa/Saki isn't too bad, still a little high percentage-wise. Then again most of these characters are
- There is no way a FE character other than Roy or Chrom has an over 50% chance of inclusion.
- Send Sukapon right to the bottom. He has a more definite negative statement than almost any other Nintendo character, and not due to programming issues. I'd disagree that he has zero chance of appearing, but it's gotta be in the single-digit percentages.

I'll probably get to more specifics later.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Oh no, I didn't notice they don't allow quote trees. Gonna go one by one.

Alright. I don't remember where he promised a trophy, though. On one hand, a trophy representation hardly means much, on the other hand, Sakurai's general apathy towards the character is enough. Really, it could go both ways, but I was debating on putting him that high anyways. Frankly I can see why he didn't get a trophy; if they weren't going to spend time making all those limbs workable, why even bother with a trophy? It's so minuscule. Asides from Ridley and a few of the Assist Trophies, many on this list actually didn't see much rep in Brawl.

You know how much polls weren't paid attention to for Brawl? Or at least, how much it took other factors. The only two characters I can really think of on-base are Sonic and Wolf, but mostly Sonic. I tried not to use popularity; Megaman and Ridley only had that due to obscene wants (Ridley was #2 on the NSider poll and ranked high in Brawl and was mentioned, Megaman is pretty much the #1 most wanted character and was #2-3 before/during Brawl) I would easily say Shulk and ISaac have their far bit, or even more popularity.

I don't think 50% is that much bad of him. Sure, F-Zero hasn't had a game, but I feel that's a tad bit low and a tad bit dependent on a new game.

I can't make everyone happy; Of course it'll spark arguments, especially as we get closer to release. What if we see Black Shadow as an Assist Trophy? What if we get ___ character in the trailer? What if we get a Paper Mario stage announced before a possible Mario Newcomer? There's so many what-ifs and still stuff that we don't know (Esp with Nintendo bringing up a better line-up on WiiU) in the end, it's a lot of opinions.

Hopefully by the end of this week when there's a percentage edit that can be made better; though I'm wondering if I should do a poll right before or something. Thoughts?

Alright, I'm gonna edit up 21-30 so then I can put in better responses. I just got to finish making the pictures. I think the edit for next week will be interesting, to say the least.

edit: Before I add Takamaru, anyone want to run over anything quick that actually does make him that probable? I've been trying to search, really.

edit: I think I'll split Toon Zelda. Any others I should split?
As for Chrom/Robin, it could go either way considering both have about as high of a status in FE: Awakening. There's not much pushing one over the other, unless if you live in some magical world where hair color matters.

 

[Starcutter]

um... does his minigame in nintendo land count as anything for takamaru?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

edit: Before I add Takamaru, anyone want to run over anything quick that actually does make him that probable? I've been trying to search, really.

Most popular retro.

Has had several appearnaces as of late including Captain Rainbow, Samurai Warriors and Nintendoland.

Has the potential to have a revival like Kid Icarus.

Interesting moveset potential.

 

[Knight Dude]

If you are looking for suggestions for characters between 30% and 50% probability, you should mention Waluigi or other Mario characters that are mostly present with the spin-offs. And how they can possibly rep that side of the Mario series. For DK, you already got King K. Rool so the only other one worth mentioning would be Dixie. I would also suggest mentioning Dark Samus, since she/it is kinda popular,though obviously not at Ridley's level. I'm unsure of other Zelda characters though.

 

[N3ON]

Alright. I don't remember where he promised a trophy, though. On one hand, a trophy representation hardly means much, on the other hand, Sakurai's general apathy towards the character is enough. Really, it could go both ways, but I was debating on putting him that high anyways. Frankly I can see why he didn't get a trophy; if they weren't going to spend time making all those limbs workable, why even bother with a trophy? It's so minuscule. Asides from Ridley and a few of the Assist Trophies, many on this list actually didn't see much rep in Brawl.

Him not being a trophy isn't too important, at that point Sakurai already rejected him, it's that Sakurai has dismissed him in the past pretty definitively, saying not to expect him in the future, presumably even when they can program better. And really he doesn't have that much going for him. He used to have popularity, but he doesn't anymore.

You know how much polls weren't paid attention to for Brawl? Or at least, how much it took other factors. The only two characters I can really think of on-base are Sonic and Wolf, but mostly Sonic. I tried not to use popularity; Megaman and Ridley only had that due to obscene wants (Ridley was #2 on the NSider poll and ranked high in Brawl and was mentioned, Megaman is pretty much the #1 most wanted character and was #2-3 before/during Brawl) I would easily say Shulk and ISaac have their far bit, or even more popularity.

No, Little Mac has more popularity (in the west at least). The polls are a fine way to gauge popularity, but either way, who do you think has more popularity in general, with all consumers, not just those who take polls on the internet? A character with a fairly successful series ten years ago who hasn't been a protagonist since 2003 and has dropped out of the public view, a character from a niche game that sold meh in the west, or a character with a successful Wii game and an iconic NES game. There's no way Isaac and Shulk are more popular in general (again in the west).

And polls don't matter to Sakurai (other than official ones), but they show us character popularity, which does matter to Sakurai.

I don't think 50% is that much bad of him. Sure, F-Zero hasn't had a game, but I feel that's a tad bit low and a tad bit dependent on a new game.

I don't think people realize 50-50 isn't that bad... it's better than most characters get. 2-1 chances at inclusion? From a currently dormant series with character who never had that much popularity, over 50% is unrealistic, but around 50% isn't even that bad. Of course I think it's lower, but either way it's not more likely we get an F-Zero newcomer than we don't.

I can't make everyone happy; Of course it'll spark arguments, especially as we get closer to release. What if we see Black Shadow as an Assist Trophy? What if we get ___ character in the trailer? What if we get a Paper Mario stage announced before a possible Mario Newcomer? There's so many what-ifs and still stuff that we don't know (Esp with Nintendo bringing up a better line-up on WiiU) in the end, it's a lot of opinions.

Yeah, none of us know what is going to happen for sure, there will be things we don't expect, but that doesn't mean some things are still generally thought of as likely or unlikely. You're entitled to your thoughts, but if making a general list and asking for opinions, you should probably take the consensus of the majority.

edit: Before I add Takamaru, anyone want to run over anything quick that actually does make him that probable? I've been trying to search, really.

Takamaru:

The thing is, Sakurai is going to include a retro character. He already said as much. That designates at least one spot on the roster for a new retro character. Out of the remaining retro characters, Sakurai also said this character would be capable of having a series revival, like Kid Icarus. Most retro characters, like Bubbles, Excitebiker, Urban Champion, even Balloon Fighter are much more arcade-styled games than plot-based or adventure-ish games, and give very little to work with, expansion-wise. Really the only two notable series left that could theoretically fleshed out are Nazo no Murasamejo and Mach Rider (and StarTropics, but that isn't going to happen, so I don't count it). Those series also have two characters among the few retro characters left not rejected by Sakurai at one point, which does give them an edge over other retros.

Now, from those two, Takamaru has a noticeable amount of popularity (for a retro) - which apparently was a factor in Pit's inclusion, and has made several reappearances as of late, including a major one with Nintendo Land, as his series was put on par with series such as Mario, Zelda, Metroid, etc. Sure, it might not be that significant for another series to have this distinction, most times cameos or minor appearances (like Takamaru's other recent appearances) don't really amount to much, but as retros have very little to go on anyway, things like this are a big deal for them.

Also, it's not just that Takamaru has positive factors for his inclusion, it's also that his retro competition really doesn't have that much. Mach Rider's series could be expanded upon, but he really doesn't have too much popularity, and hasn't received too much attention from Nintendo lately. However, he is probably the second most likely retro character, but really the chances of him making it in over Takamaru are fairly slim. Balloon Fighter is the other retro who gets brought up occasionally, and his games have been highlighted recently by Nintendo, but his series is fairly static and not open to too much expansion, and he was previously turned down by Sakurai. Ofc Sakurai could change his opinion, it's been over a decade, but as there is no evidence of such, BF still caries that negative stigma.

Considering Sakurai also said Takamaru could very well show up in Smash in the future, a statement more positive than most retros get, it stands to reason that due to a mix of positive factors in Takamaru's favour, and really nothing that benefits his competition to any great extent, he's the obvious most likely retro choice. Is he the only choice? No, there is a chance another character could get in over him, but considering who's in the running, and considering Sakurai, I wouldn't say it's too likely.

edit: I think I'll split Toon Zelda. Any others I should split?

Yeah, Chrom/Robin.

As for Chrom/Robin, it could go either way considering both have about as high of a status in FE: Awakening. There's not much pushing one over the other, unless if you live in some magical world where hair color matters.

Chrom is the one with popularity (it matters to an extent), Chrom is the one publicized with the game (therefore more people familiar with him and likely the character IS would suggest to Sakurai). Robin... has a chance I guess, but isn't as likely as Chrom.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I'll reply to the posts. I've added 21-30, and of course, I am welcome to opinions and will be editing based on opinions and facts people bring me; it's just that it has to be a consensus. Not majority, but consensus. I'm first just thinking at how I should do it so that way I can manage a mass edit based on what people want to see/think is probable.

Next edit will be on Friday the 24th. I'll fill in some of the last edit posts with some stuff.

 

[N3ON]

It's funny that "retros that aren't Takamaru" are higher than Takamaru.

Maybe you should work on fixing the characters already on there before adding more characters. Again, the percentages (and order of the characters) are off.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Okay, here we go.

Him not being a trophy isn't too important, at that point Sakurai already rejected him, it's that Sakurai has dismissed him in the past pretty definitively, saying not to expect him in the future, presumably even when they can program better. And really he doesn't have that much going for him. He used to have popularity, but he doesn't anymore.

I saw the part now so yeah, I think he's getting knocked down and Takamaru's getting pushed about.

No, Little Mac has more popularity (in the west at least). The polls are a fine way to gauge popularity, but either way, who do you think has more popularity in general, with all consumers, not just those who take polls on the internet? A character with a fairly successful series ten years ago who hasn't been a protagonist since 2003 and has dropped out of the public view, a character from a niche game that sold meh in the west, or a character with a successful Wii game and an iconic NES game. There's no way Isaac and Shulk are more popular in general (again in the west).

Successful Wii game? Are you talking about the Wii game that literally tanked in sales harder than Sin & Punishment? Xenoblade actually did fairly decent and the Golden Sun franchise is worth about four million. The NES game was successful.

I wouldn't be too sure on Shulk, but based on what I know with Nintendo fans both online and offline, I can actually safely say that with Isaac.

If I were to say, I would easily at least say Isaac's popularity (Once again, less based on the internet) outweighs Little Mac. Shulk? It's debatable and it's a coin toss, really.

The rest is really on Shulk vs Little Mac vs All the other new series contenders.

I don't think people realize 50-50 isn't that bad... it's better than most characters get. 2-1 chances at inclusion? From a currently dormant series with character who never had that much popularity, over 50% is unrealistic, but around 50% isn't even that bad. Of course I think it's lower, but either way it's not more likely we get an F-Zero newcomer than we don't.

Alright. I'm for sure lowering Goroh, and frankly, if I'm splitting up Zelda, Black Shadow's first to go.

Yeah, none of us know what is going to happen for sure, there will be things we don't expect, but that doesn't mean some things are still generally thought of as likely or unlikely. You're entitled to your thoughts, but if making a general list and asking for opinions, you should probably take the consensus of the majority.

I am, and what I already got down:

-Move Sukapon down
-Move Takamaru up
-Move Little Mac a bit up
-Move some of the higher characters a bit down (I think Ridley's % can be about K. Rool's and maybe just put them both to 88-91)
-Move Palutena up
-Split Toon Zelda/Tetra and Glitterem (I can't resist )
-Move the FE placeholder down. A lot
-Move Samurai Goroh down
-Move Toad and Bowser Jr at least a bit down

It's a lot to keep track of, thankfully though, I'm only here one week on editing (thank goodness) - I wish I could edit more, but you can tell this is already going all over the place. That's really the only other way I can make this more community based asides from polls, but hey, I'm open to suggestions.

Takamaru:

Alright, Takamaru's going up next edit. I can see the argument now, and after seeing some of the ones around him, he is a bit worthy of more.

Though, didn't someone say his game was getting a US VC release?

Chrom is the one with popularity (it matters to an extent), Chrom is the one publicized with the game (therefore more people familiar with him and likely the character IS would suggest to Sakurai). Robin... has a chance I guess, but isn't as likely as Chrom.

Eh...

It's still not too much of a difference, but if everyone wants, I can just place Robin instead of the "Other FE character" and we can just roll with that.[/quote]

 

[Starcutter]

alright, If I was making a top 30 most likely characters, I would have most of these characters, but most of them are IMO, out of order. Takamaru should be above sukapon, Masked man should be lower, like #29 low, Mona instead of Syrup, retro character should be lower, roy and crom/robin is enough for FE characters, and lastly, Kamek should be around 50%. but hey, at least kamek is on here, so yay.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

It's funny that "retros that aren't Takamaru" are higher than Takamaru.

Maybe you should work on fixing the characters already on there before adding more characters. Again, the percentages (and order of the characters) are off.

Don't worry, I heard you loud and clear on Takamaru. After seeing all the info I could about him, Retro character and Sukapon are going to be lower than him and he's at least hitting to the 20-15 level.

If everyone wants me to do the first edit to this earlier than the 24th, I will. Whatever day people thinks works best on the week for a weekly update so I don't kill myself with all this editing. (This thread alone took at least 5-6 hours, seriously.)

Okay, double post again (Grah, gonna try to do this less) but what does everyone think of this layout?

Monday: First post at all possible changes
Wednesday: Alpha post of all roster changes (Here there will be more details of what I'm thinking to go with community majority and whatnot)
Friday: Roster Edits
Saturday: Last edits/fixing any mistakes

That way this isn't just a bunch of shots in the dark every Friday as to what people do/don't want/think.

 

[N3ON]

Successful Wii game? Are you talking about the Wii game that literally tanked in sales harder than Sin & Punishment? Xenoblade actually did fairly decent and the Golden Sun franchise is worth about four million. The NES game was successful.

Tanked in sales? Punch-Out Wii? The game Nintendo picked as part of their "Nintendo Select" catalogue, meaning at least 1 million sales? The game that sold *checks* 1.8 million copies? S&P2 sold less than 100k (significantly less IIRC), Xenoblade did... I think it was around 200k in the west, and Golden Sun is at about 2.3-2.4 million total, across three games (but also including Japan). If you're using VGChartz, don't, they're not accurate.

I wouldn't be too sure on Shulk, but based on what I know with Nintendo fans both online and offline, I can actually safely say that with Isaac.

If I were to say, I would easily at least say Isaac's popularity (Once again, less based on the internet) outweighs Little Mac. Shulk? It's debatable and it's a coin toss, really.

The rest is really on Shulk vs Little Mac vs All the other new series contenders.

Now, usually I wouldn't take this position, but Golden Sun isn't the shoo-in you seem to think it is. There's a chance, sure, possibly even a good chance, but in the west Punch-Out is more popular. It just is. Little Mac also had a more recent major appearance - which contributes to popularity. In the west the Golden Sun games have done close to a million each, but the Punch-Out games have done close to two million. The majority of polls have Little Mac above Isaac, he's more popular. Both are more popular than Xenoblade in the west, yeah, but in Japan Shulk is currently more popular than Isaac.

You're arguing with a poll that has over 2000 votes and sales that differ by nearly a million. The people you know personally might know Isaac better than Little Mac, the people I know do, but that doesn't mean the majority does. In Japan it's totally a different story, there it goes Shulk > Isaac > Mac (here it's Mac > Isaac > Shulk), but of the three, Punch-Out has left the biggest impact and has the most popularity.

Alright. I'm for sure lowering Goroh, and frankly, if I'm splitting up Zelda, Black Shadow's first to go.

That's good, but the point was that really almost all the percentages should be lowered, because 60%, 50%, even like 45% aren't terrible numbers for this. Yeah, the top ten would be above this, but really most of the characters you've listed should be around 50 or under.

Though, didn't someone say his game was getting a US VC release?

It's rumored. It seems to be happening for Australia, and logically if they were going to translate it into English, and it's going to hit Australia, logically it would also come to NA and Europe.

It's still not too much of a difference, but if everyone wants, I can just place Robin instead of the "Other FE character" and we can just roll with that.

You should keep "Other FE" and just include Robin as part of it.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Actually that's a good question. I've played almost every Zelda game and that even stumps me still a bit as I look on this.

Zelda fans, what do you think when it comes to Representative? I'm about to get working on 11-20.

I think if we were to get a 2nd Zelda villain it would be Vaati. Vaati has appeared the most out of every other Zelda villian except Ganondorf and would work as a villian for the Toon series.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I never said Golden Sun's a shoe-in (despite the high placement) the only three characters on here I would consider even close to "Shoe-in" are Mewtwo, K. Rool, and Ridley, and even then they come with their own disadvantages. Golden Sun being the most likely series to show up? Surely a plausible statement to say. Golden Sun being a shoe-in? Nah. I was even thinking on lowering his percents before it was posted.

As for a site to use for sales, anyone got a recommendation on a different site then? I've used others asides from VGChartz, sometimes proving accurate. (Also, VGChartz has been accurate for me on some stuff)

Little Mac is a bit low though the more I look at it. He's for sure getting at least a small boost.

 

[N3ON]

I never said Golden Sun's a shoe-in (despite the high placement) the only three characters on here I would consider even close to "Shoe-in" are Mewtwo, K. Rool, and Ridley, and even then they come with their own disadvantages. Golden Sun being the most likely series to show up? Surely a plausible statement to say. Golden Sun being a shoe-in? Nah. I was even thinking on lowering his percents before it was posted.

As for a site to use for sales, anyone got a recommendation on a different site then? I've used others asides from VGChartz, sometimes proving accurate. (Also, VGChartz has been accurate for me on some stuff)

Little Mac is a bit low though the more I look at it. He's for sure getting at least a small boost.

Well saying other than Golden Sun it's Shulk vs. Little Mac vs. other unrepresented series gives that impression.

And western sales of Nintendo games that didn't crack 1 million are usually harder to find, there isn't really one place to find that specific information. Wikipedia is actually a decent source, as it also lists its sources. Japanese sales are a lot easier to find, thanks to like Media Create and Famitsu and stuff.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Well saying other than Golden Sun it's Shulk vs. Little Mac vs. other unrepresented series gives that impression.

Oops.

Well, I'll off-hand one part in this right now. While I think Isaac is more likely than the other two, I could easily see him not being on the roster or us getting at least two-three new series. Honestly? I'm hoping for more of the crazier ones to get represented so we can see more good games come around. It's what we really need in the state the Game Industry is in right now (I'm a wanna-be producer/designer). This is one thing I'm hoping with Smash, but most of this is off the subject anyways.

I'll probably knock down Isaac a number or two since the new series really is a tough choice. Honestly, if we got Isaac or Saki playable in Brawl I'd have more hope in seeing more new series.

And western sales of Nintendo games that didn't crack 1 million are usually harder to find, there isn't really one place to find that specific information. Wikipedia is actually a decent source, as it also lists its sources. Japanese sales are a lot easier to find, thanks to like Media Create and Famitsu and stuff.

I'll take a look before I edit it and for the coming weeks. VGChartz seems to actually be fine but there are a few mistakes, but I'll look up at least two sources for some of the bigger sales numbers or more important ones.

 

[Dark Phazon]

I would be soo happy if the top 3 were that likely for real....

 

[Shorts]

Well, I think Ghirahim, Tingle, and Toon Zelda are the only LoZ characters worth really discussing.