I'd say she still has at least a 50% chance. What might occur is what happened with the Earthbound rep in melee. I'm pretty sure it was supposed to be Lucas to cut Ness, but instead we got the older character. The same thing might happen again where we get an older character from the series. Also it looks like they are more focused right now on Wii characters. For example, AC had City Folk as his newest when he was announced, WFT well is WFT, Rosalina first debuted on the Wii, Little Mac was revived on the Wii, and Megaman had a bunch of Wii VC games. Micaiah is from Fire Emblem Radiant Dawn, one of the best rated Wii games out there. IGN had it in it's top 25, and that list I'm pretty sure had a bunch of characters almost ineligible (3rd Party) for smash. Not to mention we don't know if Awakening was even out yet when the roster was finalized, and may not have wanted risking putting in a character who may end up being unpopular by fans.