Since a lot of talk has come up about this theory, I want to take some time to explain it.
What Is The Music Theory
People have noticed that the music is added on the website along with new characters. As a result, we can possibly predict which series will and won't get characters.
Theory Explained
If you’ve paid attention to the website at all, you’ll notice that it updates with a song every week (around Tuesday night in the US). Each song is from a different series (with the exception of the two “other” songs). Moreover, there has yet to be an instance where a series gets two or more songs. Additionally, the website only updates one song a week (that’s important for another reason). What onlookers noticed what that a series gets a new song soon after that series gets a newcomer. For reference,
So, new characters will always get a song at the earliest opportunity. Since the website only updates with on song a week, any significant gaps are the result of another song for a newcomer pushing it back (see Inkling and K. Rool).
Interesting, what gives this theory more weight is Isabelle. The Nintendo Direct that revealed Isabelle was originally delayed from 9/6 to 9/13. However, it appears her music was delayed as well. See, each blog update has a number associated with it in the form of a .JSON number in the website’s code. The Animal Crossing song is number 140 and was released on 9/18. However, Pikmin came out the week prior on 9/11 and its numbered 146. So the music was saved until after Isabelle was revealed proving that the music post are used for newcomers.
What allows us to predict which characters could or could not be in is the fact that music does not overlap. So, if a Splatoon song is posted on the site, another Splatoon song will not be posted later. So, we can surmise that any series with a song on the site likely won't have a new character and any series without a song could possibly have a new character.
Echo Fighters
One thing I want to address is the confusion surrounding Echo Fighters. For the most part, it appears the music does not always related to a new character
Series Not Receiving Song
It should be noted that some series will never get a song. Part of this is due to the fact that the series has no new song. From the Smash Bros Direct, we know that Ice Climbers, Game and Watch, ROB, Final Fantasy and Bayonetta will not have a song. Another caveat is Sonic. Sonic has only had one song rearranged (which was done by Jun Senoue, a SEGA employee). In Super Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS, Sonic got new songs but not a new rearrangement. It should be noted that every other series except ROB and Game and Watch got a new song. It’s possible the same could happen here which means Sonic will not have a song on the website. However, this is currently unconfirmed.
Series Without a Song
Excluding the exceptions above, here are all the series that do not have a song as of 9/23/18
(**) - Mii is listed as a separate series on the website. It does not have a separate category for music
It should be noted that the two “other” songs may be related to other series. The Galaga Medley is likely tied to PAC-MAN as classic Namco music was in the prior game. The Noisy Notebook could relate to Wii Fit or Mii. It should be noted that Wii Fit has 10 songs in Smash Bros Ultimate and the stage had 10 songs in Smash Bros for Wii U; however, this includes songs from Nintendogs (which already has its own stage). As of 9/22/18, there are 11 weeks remaining with 11 series possibly remaining. Since one or two of these series may not get songs (based on the above), it's possible there could be a new series or two.
Issues With The Theory
The main issue with the theory is the possibility of redoing series. Over the websites lifespan, there has been no instance where a series got two songs; however, that does not mean it couldn’t happen in the future. As we get closer to release, it will become more likely that a series will repeat as the number of remaining series shrinks. Additionally, the Wii U and 3DS sites did have two Super Mario songs. A series repeating means we can’t predict what series will get characters and which ones won't. That said, even if series do repeat it would likely be for larger ones like Super Mario.
The other key issue is we don’t know which series will and won't get songs. For instance, Sonic has historically not gotten new songs. Thus, it’s hard to tell how many series are left and thus its hard to predict if series will overlap or how many new series there could be. Also, there is the possibility that there could be another Smash song. Both Brawl and Smash Wii U/3DS has a series song that was separated from the main theme (one being the Melee theme rearranged and the other being Multi-Man Smash).
Possible Conclusions and Closing Thoughts
To finish off, I want to give some personal thoughts on this. Unlike the above, this is my own opinion.
First, I think this does give us an idea of the possible remaining characters. Notably, Pokemon has yet to have a song and many people are expecting Pokemon will have a new character. Another possibility is Xenoblade Chronicles. Xenoblade Chronicles X released in 2015 and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 released in 2017. Thus, there are at least two games to draw from. It's hard to say if the other series will have characters. Kid Icarus, Earthbound and Star Fox have characters to draw from but it's unlikely they will get in. On the opposite end, it's less likely that a new character from Mario, Zelda or Kirby will get in. It is possible that there will be some overlap and that one of those series could get another song, but it’s very unlikely all of them will. Moreover, we only saw this with Super Mario in the last game so it's hard to say Zelda or Kirby will get another.
Lastly, this does support the possibility of getting another new series. Although there are 11 songs left, some of them may not get new arrangements as discussed earlier. This leaves the possibility of a new series being added. It should be noted that Super Smash Bros Brawl added Olimar on January 9th 2018 (three weeks before the Japanese release) and Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS added Shulk on August 29 2018 (two weeks before the Japanese release date).
My thoughts on this theory is that it should be used as a general guide. It provides a road map for what characters could be announced and which ones won't be. However, a few uncertainties could bring its validity into question. I wouldn’t say that for sure, 100% disconfirms or confirms any character. It just gives a general guide to what could be announced. That said, it’s reliability will either improve or decrease as more music is added and more new characters are shown off.
Sources:
Super Smash Bros Wii U/3DS music page: https://www.smashbros.com/wiiu-3ds/us/music/
Super Smash Bros Brawl music page: https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/music/index.html
Link to Sonic Song for Brawl: https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/music/music19.html
Shulks Reveal trailer (with date) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUl1EkUJ46k
Blog Theory Doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r_eu-Y5ipUCEusPAbCr85doVJmuhJFn1fbBETi7NN2I/edit#
(credit to
PolarPanda
)
What Is The Music Theory
People have noticed that the music is added on the website along with new characters. As a result, we can possibly predict which series will and won't get characters.
Theory Explained
If you’ve paid attention to the website at all, you’ll notice that it updates with a song every week (around Tuesday night in the US). Each song is from a different series (with the exception of the two “other” songs). Moreover, there has yet to be an instance where a series gets two or more songs. Additionally, the website only updates one song a week (that’s important for another reason). What onlookers noticed what that a series gets a new song soon after that series gets a newcomer. For reference,
- Ridley was shown of at E3 on 6/12. The website, on its unveiling, included a song from Metroid (also on 6/12)
- Inklings were officially revealed at E3 alongside Ridley. Splatoon got a song the very next week (6/19)
- Simon was shown off on 8/8. His series, Castlevania, got a song the very same day
- K Rool was shown off alongside Simon. He got a song the very next week (8/14)
- Isabelle was shown off 9/13. Animal Crossing got a song on 9/18.
So, new characters will always get a song at the earliest opportunity. Since the website only updates with on song a week, any significant gaps are the result of another song for a newcomer pushing it back (see Inkling and K. Rool).
Interesting, what gives this theory more weight is Isabelle. The Nintendo Direct that revealed Isabelle was originally delayed from 9/6 to 9/13. However, it appears her music was delayed as well. See, each blog update has a number associated with it in the form of a .JSON number in the website’s code. The Animal Crossing song is number 140 and was released on 9/18. However, Pikmin came out the week prior on 9/11 and its numbered 146. So the music was saved until after Isabelle was revealed proving that the music post are used for newcomers.
What allows us to predict which characters could or could not be in is the fact that music does not overlap. So, if a Splatoon song is posted on the site, another Splatoon song will not be posted later. So, we can surmise that any series with a song on the site likely won't have a new character and any series without a song could possibly have a new character.
Echo Fighters
One thing I want to address is the confusion surrounding Echo Fighters. For the most part, it appears the music does not always related to a new character
- Daisy was added to the site on 6/12 alongside Ridley and Inkling. Super Mario did not get a song until 9/4
- Dark Samus was added on 8/8 but the Metroid song was added when the site opened on 6/12
- Chrom was added on 8/8. Fire Emblem got a song on 8/21 after Castlevania and DK
Series Not Receiving Song
It should be noted that some series will never get a song. Part of this is due to the fact that the series has no new song. From the Smash Bros Direct, we know that Ice Climbers, Game and Watch, ROB, Final Fantasy and Bayonetta will not have a song. Another caveat is Sonic. Sonic has only had one song rearranged (which was done by Jun Senoue, a SEGA employee). In Super Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS, Sonic got new songs but not a new rearrangement. It should be noted that every other series except ROB and Game and Watch got a new song. It’s possible the same could happen here which means Sonic will not have a song on the website. However, this is currently unconfirmed.
Series Without a Song
Excluding the exceptions above, here are all the series that do not have a song as of 9/23/18
- Star Fox
- Pokemon
- Earthbound
- Warioware
- Kid Icarus
- Sonic*
- Wii Fit
- Punch-Out
- Mii**
- PAC-MAN
- Xenoblade Chronicles
(**) - Mii is listed as a separate series on the website. It does not have a separate category for music
It should be noted that the two “other” songs may be related to other series. The Galaga Medley is likely tied to PAC-MAN as classic Namco music was in the prior game. The Noisy Notebook could relate to Wii Fit or Mii. It should be noted that Wii Fit has 10 songs in Smash Bros Ultimate and the stage had 10 songs in Smash Bros for Wii U; however, this includes songs from Nintendogs (which already has its own stage). As of 9/22/18, there are 11 weeks remaining with 11 series possibly remaining. Since one or two of these series may not get songs (based on the above), it's possible there could be a new series or two.
Issues With The Theory
The main issue with the theory is the possibility of redoing series. Over the websites lifespan, there has been no instance where a series got two songs; however, that does not mean it couldn’t happen in the future. As we get closer to release, it will become more likely that a series will repeat as the number of remaining series shrinks. Additionally, the Wii U and 3DS sites did have two Super Mario songs. A series repeating means we can’t predict what series will get characters and which ones won't. That said, even if series do repeat it would likely be for larger ones like Super Mario.
The other key issue is we don’t know which series will and won't get songs. For instance, Sonic has historically not gotten new songs. Thus, it’s hard to tell how many series are left and thus its hard to predict if series will overlap or how many new series there could be. Also, there is the possibility that there could be another Smash song. Both Brawl and Smash Wii U/3DS has a series song that was separated from the main theme (one being the Melee theme rearranged and the other being Multi-Man Smash).
Possible Conclusions and Closing Thoughts
To finish off, I want to give some personal thoughts on this. Unlike the above, this is my own opinion.
First, I think this does give us an idea of the possible remaining characters. Notably, Pokemon has yet to have a song and many people are expecting Pokemon will have a new character. Another possibility is Xenoblade Chronicles. Xenoblade Chronicles X released in 2015 and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 released in 2017. Thus, there are at least two games to draw from. It's hard to say if the other series will have characters. Kid Icarus, Earthbound and Star Fox have characters to draw from but it's unlikely they will get in. On the opposite end, it's less likely that a new character from Mario, Zelda or Kirby will get in. It is possible that there will be some overlap and that one of those series could get another song, but it’s very unlikely all of them will. Moreover, we only saw this with Super Mario in the last game so it's hard to say Zelda or Kirby will get another.
Lastly, this does support the possibility of getting another new series. Although there are 11 songs left, some of them may not get new arrangements as discussed earlier. This leaves the possibility of a new series being added. It should be noted that Super Smash Bros Brawl added Olimar on January 9th 2018 (three weeks before the Japanese release) and Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS added Shulk on August 29 2018 (two weeks before the Japanese release date).
My thoughts on this theory is that it should be used as a general guide. It provides a road map for what characters could be announced and which ones won't be. However, a few uncertainties could bring its validity into question. I wouldn’t say that for sure, 100% disconfirms or confirms any character. It just gives a general guide to what could be announced. That said, it’s reliability will either improve or decrease as more music is added and more new characters are shown off.
Sources:
Super Smash Bros Wii U/3DS music page: https://www.smashbros.com/wiiu-3ds/us/music/
Super Smash Bros Brawl music page: https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/music/index.html
Link to Sonic Song for Brawl: https://www.smashbros.com/wii/en_us/music/music19.html
Shulks Reveal trailer (with date) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUl1EkUJ46k
Blog Theory Doc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1r_eu-Y5ipUCEusPAbCr85doVJmuhJFn1fbBETi7NN2I/edit#
(credit to
PolarPanda
)
