TDK
Smash Master
Yeah, he dropped Melee to focus on Smash 4. Really, if Brawl still had a scene he should stick with that...
Also it looks like Nairo's using Lucina for more than just waifu.
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The Big House 6 Thread
- Thread starter Das Koopa
- Start date
Also it looks like Nairo's using Lucina for more than just waifu.
FamilyTeam
This strength serves more than me alone.
I'm just
at a loss for words. Was that real? My heart is still racing. Cannot believe this. That did not just happen.
at a loss for words. Was that real? My heart is still racing. Cannot believe this. That did not just happen.
L9999
Smash Champion
See why the tipper argument is a load of crap?
TDK
Smash Master
Team Midwest 3-1 Team CLG.
Lord Dio
Smash Champion
Nairo's Lucina. The most hype thing since.........if I had to give a personal opinion, Esam vs M2k at smash con last year. That, or Prince Ramen beating ZeRo. One of the two.
FamilyTeam
This strength serves more than me alone.
This is a dream. Seriously. I can't believe this.
This is truly amazing! Nairo's Lucie is already so much better!
This is truly amazing! Nairo's Lucie is already so much better!
ARISTOS
Smash Ace
ESAM needs to drop 
, the character is doing him no favors and doesn't fit the aggressive mold he wants to use.
Also, there seems to be a ton of double jeopardy's happening. Samsora vs Fatality again? M2K vs Captain Zack again?
, the character is doing him no favors and doesn't fit the aggressive mold he wants to use.Also, there seems to be a ton of double jeopardy's happening. Samsora vs Fatality again? M2K vs Captain Zack again?
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TDK
Smash Master
I am so happy Nairo's actually seriously using Lucina. I guess it's true that her future is not written.
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Fenny
Smash Ace
- Joined
- May 29, 2016
- Messages
- 584
FamilyTeam
This strength serves more than me alone.
It was also not true at all. Surprised he didn't even seem to bother trying to escape.
With ANTi struggling so much against Puppeh, I don't think it bodes well for his set against VoiD. I don't see VoiD struggling against either WaDi or Mr. E tbh, so he probably has the safest path to Top 8 among anybody in the Top 32 right now.
If not him, I think Nairo is pretty safe. Komorikiri has only beaten him in exhibition and crews (and barely, at that.) He's lost to both his ZSS (convincingly) and his Lucina. Nairo's worst losses overall are probably Dire and Mr. II, so I don't expect him to get upset by Cosmos. Could happen but probably not.
Now, that does assume Komo beats Ri-ma. Komo has looked a little shaky - nearly dropping games to Seagull and Sodrek - but he's the favorite going in. He's had a similar result vs. Ri-ma before (1 clear win, 1 shaky, near-loss for a 2-0) back in July. I think it might have to do with how he plays to download his opponents since he also dropped a lot of individual games in pools at Aba Saga but went on to take down Ally and Ito.
I could see things going into a total tailspin if Ri-ma takes Komo down because there's absolutely no way of knowing how Ri-ma vs. Nairo would turn out. Hyuga and Nairo traded sets and the last time they met before Hyuga's forced retirement resulted in Hyuga > Nairo, 2-1. I assume these will be Bo5 sets, so that gives Nairo longer to adapt, but Ri-ma has demonstrated a lot this weekend.
Easy prediction for bracket A is Nairo vs. VoiD runback in Winner's Semis but a lot of things can get out of control. E.g; If WaDi beats Mr. E and ANTi takes VoiD down, WaDi in Winner's Side top 8 is entirely possible since he's a Mario slayer and has taken down ANTi before.
Winners Semis:
Hope: WaDi vs. Ri-ma
Most likely answer: VoiD vs. Nairo
The B-side of Winner's is completely insane, though. Mr. R, ZeRo, Dabuz, Salem, Abadango, and Kamemushi are all Top 8 Winners Side contenders. Conventional wisdom suggests it's going to be ZeRo vs. Salem in Winners Semis, but Mr. R could beat ZeRo, could be beaten by Abadango, etc. If Mr. R loses to Abadango, ZeRo will assuredly make Top 8 Winners Side since Aba's record vs. ZeRo is straight trash, but Mr. R vs. ZeRo is an intense matchup that could go either way.
Oh, and Tweek's there too, but I don't expect much from that.
Dabuz vs. Salem can go either way. A panic Olimar pick may be something Salem will fish for, as (it's been pointed out) he's the best at abusing Witch Time, and Olimar just gives Bayo all the opportunities in the world to do it. If Salem takes down Dabuz's Rosalina and he panic-modes into Olimar, I'd call for Salem to take it. I'm not sure if it's Bo3 or Bo5. If it's the latter, I can't count Salem out even if Dabuz wins G1 since Salem is extremely good at downloading players and clutching.
Kameme vs. either is equally unpredictable. Kameme had 2 UNFORTUNATE SDS from a winning position vs. Dabuz at SAT that dictated who got what stages, but it was a close 2-3 set. Salem could go either way. Salem beat him 2-0 in two narrow games (both appeared to be playing seriously even though it was a local) and Kameme has incredible SDI, but Salem separates himself from other Bayos by being REALLY GOOD at covering SDI. Kameme seemed to mostly have Salem's number in crews.
Hope: Abadango vs. Kameme
Most likely answer: ZeRo vs. Salem
Random Loser's Bracket stuff:
-Ally has a hell of a bracket ahead of him to contend with.
-Mew2King is probably doomed to 25th place. He's 0-2 against Zack in sets now. I could see him dropping out to focus on Melee, actually, because he'd need to dedicate a lot to contending with that Losers Bracket. Like, even if he beats Zack, he could have to contend with either Dabuz or Salem, then probably Ally, then whoever loses Nairo vs. Komo, etc. He'd need to run a massive gauntlet that just gets harder the longer it goes on. He might try his hand against Zack and see where it goes of he wins but he's likely going to fall at some point.
-With Larry losing to Zack at Abadango Saga, I could see Saj pulling an upset. Saj is known for his loser's bracket runs.
-Kie vs. Rich is something I hope is periscoped. No way of knowing where it goes. Funny thing is, it's actually possible we might eventually see an Aba/Rich runback to see which gets into Top 8. Depends on brackets and relies on Aba beat Mr. R then losing to ZeRo and Rich beaten Kie, ANTi, and probably either Mr. E or WaDi though.
-There are a couple of other runbacks. Samsora vs. Fatality (Samsora 2-0'd fatality) and MVD vs. Rayquaza (Rayquaza 2-0'd MVD). I don't think these are very consequential since none of those players stand a good chance of making it far in Losers when top players start dropping in, but it's worth mentioning. Ray upsetting Ri-ma or Komo isn't out of the question. I mean, if Xaltis can beat ANTI.... <_<
I just stuck to analysis here instead of raw predictions. I'll probably provide a brief analysis of top 8 before it starts, but my opinion of who wins hinges a lot on very specific things, like Dabuz vs. Salem, Kameme vs. the winner of that set, the winner of VoiD vs. Nairo, etc. We could see Kameme > Marss, Salem/Dabuz, ZeRo, VoiD to get into GFs, but that becomes less likely if Nairo beats VoiD, or if ZeRo has trained in the Mega Man matchup, etc. That's just one example. Craziest but totally plausible path (as I mentioned) is Ri-ma getting into Winners Finals by beating Komo, Nairo, and VoiD (the latter having had trouble in the MU before) but it's not very likely.
If not him, I think Nairo is pretty safe. Komorikiri has only beaten him in exhibition and crews (and barely, at that.) He's lost to both his ZSS (convincingly) and his Lucina. Nairo's worst losses overall are probably Dire and Mr. II, so I don't expect him to get upset by Cosmos. Could happen but probably not.
Now, that does assume Komo beats Ri-ma. Komo has looked a little shaky - nearly dropping games to Seagull and Sodrek - but he's the favorite going in. He's had a similar result vs. Ri-ma before (1 clear win, 1 shaky, near-loss for a 2-0) back in July. I think it might have to do with how he plays to download his opponents since he also dropped a lot of individual games in pools at Aba Saga but went on to take down Ally and Ito.
I could see things going into a total tailspin if Ri-ma takes Komo down because there's absolutely no way of knowing how Ri-ma vs. Nairo would turn out. Hyuga and Nairo traded sets and the last time they met before Hyuga's forced retirement resulted in Hyuga > Nairo, 2-1. I assume these will be Bo5 sets, so that gives Nairo longer to adapt, but Ri-ma has demonstrated a lot this weekend.
Easy prediction for bracket A is Nairo vs. VoiD runback in Winner's Semis but a lot of things can get out of control. E.g; If WaDi beats Mr. E and ANTi takes VoiD down, WaDi in Winner's Side top 8 is entirely possible since he's a Mario slayer and has taken down ANTi before.
Winners Semis:
Hope: WaDi vs. Ri-ma
Most likely answer: VoiD vs. Nairo
The B-side of Winner's is completely insane, though. Mr. R, ZeRo, Dabuz, Salem, Abadango, and Kamemushi are all Top 8 Winners Side contenders. Conventional wisdom suggests it's going to be ZeRo vs. Salem in Winners Semis, but Mr. R could beat ZeRo, could be beaten by Abadango, etc. If Mr. R loses to Abadango, ZeRo will assuredly make Top 8 Winners Side since Aba's record vs. ZeRo is straight trash, but Mr. R vs. ZeRo is an intense matchup that could go either way.
Oh, and Tweek's there too, but I don't expect much from that.
Dabuz vs. Salem can go either way. A panic Olimar pick may be something Salem will fish for, as (it's been pointed out) he's the best at abusing Witch Time, and Olimar just gives Bayo all the opportunities in the world to do it. If Salem takes down Dabuz's Rosalina and he panic-modes into Olimar, I'd call for Salem to take it. I'm not sure if it's Bo3 or Bo5. If it's the latter, I can't count Salem out even if Dabuz wins G1 since Salem is extremely good at downloading players and clutching.
Kameme vs. either is equally unpredictable. Kameme had 2 UNFORTUNATE SDS from a winning position vs. Dabuz at SAT that dictated who got what stages, but it was a close 2-3 set. Salem could go either way. Salem beat him 2-0 in two narrow games (both appeared to be playing seriously even though it was a local) and Kameme has incredible SDI, but Salem separates himself from other Bayos by being REALLY GOOD at covering SDI. Kameme seemed to mostly have Salem's number in crews.
Hope: Abadango vs. Kameme
Most likely answer: ZeRo vs. Salem
Random Loser's Bracket stuff:
-Ally has a hell of a bracket ahead of him to contend with.
-Mew2King is probably doomed to 25th place. He's 0-2 against Zack in sets now. I could see him dropping out to focus on Melee, actually, because he'd need to dedicate a lot to contending with that Losers Bracket. Like, even if he beats Zack, he could have to contend with either Dabuz or Salem, then probably Ally, then whoever loses Nairo vs. Komo, etc. He'd need to run a massive gauntlet that just gets harder the longer it goes on. He might try his hand against Zack and see where it goes of he wins but he's likely going to fall at some point.
-With Larry losing to Zack at Abadango Saga, I could see Saj pulling an upset. Saj is known for his loser's bracket runs.
-Kie vs. Rich is something I hope is periscoped. No way of knowing where it goes. Funny thing is, it's actually possible we might eventually see an Aba/Rich runback to see which gets into Top 8. Depends on brackets and relies on Aba beat Mr. R then losing to ZeRo and Rich beaten Kie, ANTi, and probably either Mr. E or WaDi though.
-There are a couple of other runbacks. Samsora vs. Fatality (Samsora 2-0'd fatality) and MVD vs. Rayquaza (Rayquaza 2-0'd MVD). I don't think these are very consequential since none of those players stand a good chance of making it far in Losers when top players start dropping in, but it's worth mentioning. Ray upsetting Ri-ma or Komo isn't out of the question. I mean, if Xaltis can beat ANTI.... <_<
I just stuck to analysis here instead of raw predictions. I'll probably provide a brief analysis of top 8 before it starts, but my opinion of who wins hinges a lot on very specific things, like Dabuz vs. Salem, Kameme vs. the winner of that set, the winner of VoiD vs. Nairo, etc. We could see Kameme > Marss, Salem/Dabuz, ZeRo, VoiD to get into GFs, but that becomes less likely if Nairo beats VoiD, or if ZeRo has trained in the Mega Man matchup, etc. That's just one example. Craziest but totally plausible path (as I mentioned) is Ri-ma getting into Winners Finals by beating Komo, Nairo, and VoiD (the latter having had trouble in the MU before) but it's not very likely.
FamilyTeam
This strength serves more than me alone.
Hm. So Nairo switched out Lucina for Cloud after the bracket reset...
Way to kill the hype, for me.
I mean, at the very least it's working well so far.
Way to kill the hype, for me.
I mean, at the very least it's working well so far.
TDK
Smash Master
The big House 6 doubles:
1st: ZeRo ( ) / Nairo ( / )
2nd: Ally ( ) / Mew2King ( )
3rd: Marss ( ) / Pugwest ( )
4th: Rayquaza ( ) / Ryuga ( )
5th: ANTi ( / Kamemushi ( )
5th: NAKAT ( / VoiD )
7th: ESAM ( ) / MVD ( )
7th: Poke ( ) / IceNinja ( )
Grats to ZeRo and Nairo. See you all tomorrow for a hype top 32.
Also, the total Amount of unique characters in singles top 32: 20 (21 if Static pulls out Roy)
Also, I feel like it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say Saj > Pink Fresh. While Pink has won a stacked regional, Saj does better on average at the very top. Salem's still the best though.
1st: ZeRo (
) / Nairo ( / )2nd: Ally (
) / Mew2King ( )3rd: Marss (
) / Pugwest ( )4th: Rayquaza (
) / Ryuga ( )5th: ANTi (
/ Kamemushi ( )5th: NAKAT (
/ VoiD )7th: ESAM (
) / MVD ( )7th: Poke (
) / IceNinja ( )Grats to ZeRo and Nairo. See you all tomorrow for a hype top 32.
Also, the total Amount of unique characters in singles top 32: 20 (21 if Static pulls out Roy)
Also, I feel like it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to say Saj > Pink Fresh. While Pink has won a stacked regional, Saj does better on average at the very top. Salem's still the best though.
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Lord Dio
Smash Champion
It's working otu well for me, as someone who thoroughly enjoys both :D
Imo, if he can get past Zack, I'd put money on him being able to take Dabuz. Salem though, is a much different, and much, much more difficult fight to win, imo.
TDK
Smash Master
Poor kie. First he has a rematch with Rich Brown, and if he takes that he fights either VoiD or ANTi.
And there's almost no way ANTi will be dumb enough to pick Mario vs Kie's peach.
And there's almost no way ANTi will be dumb enough to pick Mario vs Kie's peach.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, please?Losers:
Komo could easily beat Rima to make it to guaranteed top 9 and if Manny wins his first round in losers against Aarvark we'll have Sonic at 9th and 25th out of almost 800 entrants respectively. With the best Sonic player not even being there that's quite a respectable result, especially with a handful of 33rd and 49th placings between Wrath, Kels and Joe.
Larry is not out of the tournament yet and while his losers bracket set against saj could be an early finish, there's also a chance that he faces Tweek -> Mr R -> loser of Mr E / wadi vs Anti / Void. All of these are winnable for him except Void who is unlikely to face Larry given the bracket constellation and who might bust out Fox himself at one point. In that case Larry'd place within top 8 and another Fox would potentially be listed. With the 2nd best Fox not even being there [SH from Japan] that'd also be a satisfactory result, especially with a handful of 33rd and 49th placings between Shogun, Ksev and Sodrek.
But this tournament has been crazy enough that almost anything can happen. Wadi beating Mr E and then the winner of Anti vs Void to make it to guarnateed top 5? Absolutely not out of the question at this point.
That's the big issue I have with the way bracket pools are lined up in these super national tournaments - it's just too likely for a player to lose to the same opponent twice within a very short amount of time. There's M2K vs Zack, Sam vs Fatality, Kie vs Rich and Ray vs MVD all had already happened in pools before. Imagine M2K, who for all we know is capable to do a great LB run and beating top players, making it only to 25th just because he was unlucky enough to be seeded in the same pool as the guy who may very well be the most underrated player in the tournament right now.
Reminds me of when Kirihara got double eliminated in pools by Hyuga. I think that was at CEO? Hyuga then went on to place 5th or 4th or something crazy good and Kirihara got like 49th or 33rd. Stuff like that totally defeats the point of having a double elimination bracket in the first place.
Wintermelon43
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2015
- Messages
- 2,767
.....Hyuga got 25th. Had to face ZeRo and immediately got eliminatedLet's not get ahead of ourselves, please?
Komo could easily beat Rima to make it to guaranteed top 9 and if Manny wins his first round in losers against Aarvark we'll have Sonic at 9th and 25th out of almost 800 entrants respectively. With the best Sonic player not even being there that's quite a respectable result, especially with a handful of 33rd and 49th placings between Wrath, Kels and Joe.
Larry is not out of the tournament yet and while his losers bracket set against saj could be an early finish, there's also a chance that he faces Tweek -> Mr R -> loser of Mr E / wadi vs Anti / Void. All of these are winnable for him except Void who is unlikely to face Larry given the bracket constellation and who might bust out Fox himself at one point. In that case Larry'd place within top 8 and another Fox would potentially be listed. With the 2nd best Fox not even being there [SH from Japan] that'd also be a satisfactory result, especially with a handful of 33rd and 49th placings between Shogun, Ksev and Sodrek.
But this tournament has been crazy enough that almost anything can happen. Wadi beating Mr E and then the winner of Anti vs Void to make it to guarnateed top 5? Absolutely not out of the question at this point.
That's the big issue I have with the way bracket pools are lined up in these super national tournaments - it's just too likely for a player to lose to the same opponent twice within a very short amount of time. There's M2K vs Zack, Sam vs Fatality, Kie vs Rich and Ray vs MVD all had already happened in pools before. Imagine M2K, who for all we know is capable to do a great LB run and beating top players, making it only to 25th just because he was unlucky enough to be seeded in the same pool as the guy who may very well be the most underrated player in the tournament right now.
Reminds me of when Kirihara got double eliminated in pools by Hyuga. I think that was at CEO? Hyuga then went on to place 5th or 4th or something crazy good and Kirihara got like 49th or 33rd. Stuff like that totally defeats the point of having a double elimination bracket in the first place.
Wintermelon43
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2015
- Messages
- 2,767
Yea. It was EVO though not CEO. Kirihara didn't go to CEOWas that the same tournament Hyuga double eliminated Kirihara?
Wintermelon43
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2015
- Messages
- 2,767
Yea, that was CEOThough I also remember that Huyga placed either 4th or 5th at a very tacked tournament so that's still something that could happen, that I believe should not happen.
ShadowGuy1
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2015
- Messages
- 1,311
Ally drops out due to no sleep and head aches.
valakmtnsmash4
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2015
- Messages
- 708
- NNID
- yathshiv
And there goes allys losers run. Hope he gets well soon
Fenny
Smash Ace
- Joined
- May 29, 2016
- Messages
- 584
welp, hope he recovers alright
Looks like Marss or Kamemushi effectively have a free pass into top 16 if they don't spaghetti lmao
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The loser of Kamemushi vs Marss will have to beat one of M2K, Zack, Salem or dabuz to make it past top 17th. That's not quite what I'd call a "free pass".
Edit: To be precice, the winner of Zack vs M2K will play the loser of Salem vs dabuz. The winner of that, if no further upsets happen, will have to play Marss.
Edit 2: Honestly though, the more I look at the winners bracket the more flabbergasted I am ahow early some of these sets are happening. Salem vs dabuz, Abadango vs Mr r and Void vs Anti all in Round 1? Seriously?
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NotLiquid
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jul 14, 2014
- Messages
- 1,345
With Ally gone I'm kind of expecting ZeRo to be the most favored to win honestly. Even though we're at the point where anything can happen in Smash tournaments I feel like Ally is the only one (with the possible exception of Larry) that can be considered to have his number moreso than other players. At least that would be the safe bet at this point. The beginning of Top 32 already looks like a bloodbath in the making.
Fenny
Smash Ace
- Joined
- May 29, 2016
- Messages
- 584
Oh, misread it, my badThe loser of Kamemushi vs Marss will have to beat one of M2K, Zack, Salem or dabuz to make it past top 17th. That's not quite what I'd call a "free pass".
Edit: To be precice, the winner of Zack vs M2K will play the loser of Salem vs dabuz. The winner of that, if no further upsets happen, will have to play Marss.
Edit 2: Honestly though, the more I look at the winners bracket the more flabbergasted I am ahow early some of these sets are happening. Salem vs dabuz, Abadango vs Mr r and Void vs Anti all in Round 1? Seriously?
Thought whoever beat James was auto in top 16
ThePokéYoshi
Smash Cadet
Up first: WaDi VS Mr. E
Edit: 3-1 for Mr. E!
VS Mr. E Edit: 3-1 for Mr. E!
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ThePokéYoshi
Smash Cadet
ANTi with the Fair to Up smash to 3-0 VoiD wow.. good stuff
with the Fair to Up smash to 3-0 VoiD wow.. good stuff
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TDK
Smash Master
ANTi 3-0 VoiD
Well then.
3-0 VoiD Well then.
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TDK
Smash Master
Komorikiri 3-0 Ri-Ma
chaos emerald counter:
Komorikiri: 4
Static Manny: 3
EDIT: Kie 3-2 Rich Brown
Let's go Peach!
3-0 Ri-Ma chaos emerald counter:
Komorikiri: 4
Static Manny: 3
EDIT: Kie
3-2 Rich Brown Let's go Peach!
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