Clayton E. Cramer & David B. Kopel said:
It is also important to recognize the dramatic effects that a small number of murderers can have in some of the smaller states from year to year. The murder rates of West Virginia, Idaho, and Montana, are all dramatically variable from year to year, because the populations are small, and one serious criminal can dramatically raise the murder rate one year, followed by a dramatic drop when he is caught or moves on. As a result, the experience of the larger states is more useful for judging the effects of the non- discretionary issuance laws.
Are there any conclusions to be drawn here? In Florida, carry reform appears to have done some good, and perhaps saved a number of lives, although much more detailed statistical analysis would be required to isolate with certainty the carry reform law as a factor in the homicide rate decline. In Virginia, where some judges subverted the clear intent of the legislature, the reform law appears to have not been effective. In Georgia, where the change resulted from an Attorney General's reinterpretation of the law, the evidence suggests that carry reform perhaps might have reduced murder rates. In West Virginia, the results are inconclusive. In Oregon, the new law took effect with murder rates already in decline, and it is impossible to determine whether or how much the new law contributed. In Pennsylvania, legal reform might, arguably, have done some good in Philadelphia, and apparently done no harm outside of Philadelphia. In Idaho, Montana, and Mississippi, the results are inconclusive.
In several of the states, the positive results would seem to have been most dramatic the year of adoption, with results tapering off afterwards. This may be a result of publicity about the law discouraging criminals, or the result of publicity encouraging a short burst of law-abiding citizens applying for permits.
In neither large or small states do we see evidence of obvious long-term increases in murder rates after passage of these laws. This is the most significant, certain conclusion that can be drawn from the data presented above. The experience of the carry reform states plainly shows that homicide rates will not increase as a result of crimes committed by persons with carry permits. Carry reform legislation may or may not reduce the homicide rate, but reform legislation clearly does not raise the homicide rate.