Survivors of Direct-agedon: Who still has a chance?

[Guybrush20X6]

A lot of info was revealed in Smash Direct and with it a lot of characters were deconfirmed. The Graveyard thread has those that didn't make it but let's look at who's left. There's three categories: ones with hurt chances, ones with noting changed and ones that actually came out better, few as they were.

[COLLAPSE="Those that were wounded"]
* Any remaining Pokemon: They now have to contend for a hypothetical 5th spot
* Takamaru: Shurikens are his thing and Greninjas. Some competition going on here.
* Any Zelda Newcomer: Sheik is her own gal(?) now bringing the cast up to four and Ganondorf will inevetably show.
* Mii: The king shows up in the cage of Find Mii.
* Snake: Sheik done stole his grenades.
* Lip: Stick is an item again.
[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Those who escaped unscathed"]
* Anything Star Fox
* Isaac
* Shulk
* Ray Mk 1-4
* Bandana Dee (Removed from Dedede's attack but Normal Dees are a common enemy)
* All of Fire emblem minus Tiki and Lyn
[/COLLAPSE]
[COLLAPSE="Those who benefited"]
* Veterans who had their series appear (Wario, Captain Falcon, Ness/Lucas)
* King K. Rool: A small victory but the Kremlings in Smash Run show that even if Nintendo forgot the crocs, Sakurai hasn't
* Pac-Man: Not in the direct itself but in the Press Release a couple of Namco items including the ships from Galaga. Namco is infamous for crossing over their series with little provocation including one of the bonus items in Pac-Man being a ship from Galaxian.
* Palutena: The Queen of this Wasteland. Removed from Pit's Final Smash, fake Palutena is a trophy and loads of Kid icarus content in Smash Run.
[/COLLAPSE]

Who else is there to account for?

 

[Sabrewulf238]

It's not a huge point but didn't the effect of Lip's Stick appear during the direct? (Flowers on head) I think it was a special battle type.

It's not a massive blow but it could be considered a bump on the head.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Ridley was oviously shot so many times his shadow is in the pyrosphere stage and he was not the announced character at that direct

 

[Zzuxon]

Tingle was unseen during the AT segement, he is still in the running.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

https://www.flickr.com/photos/48280274@N02/sets/72157643678092364/

These should help show gets up there and who gets lowered

King k rool for the kremlings as enemy's so the king him self could be involved

Pac man just shot the moon with the galaga ships pong assist trophy and possibly the retro flag

 

[Vann Accessible]

I was thinking of making a thread like this. I have a few observations to contribute.

Judging from series icons, items and stages, Capt. Falcon, Ness, Wario and Metaknight are all obviously returning. As if we didn't know that already.

Squirtle and Ivysaur are most likely cut. We got a new water type, and Charizard was clearly the most likely of PT's mons to be salavaged. Mewtwo's odds of returning decrease as well

Ganondorf's continued absence leads me to hope he's being reworked a bit. Given how everyone else is being tweaked, it seems pretty likely.

Snake's likelihood falls due to Sheik getting grenades.

Simon Belmont's likelihood increase slightly due to Snake's decreased chances along with Sheik getting a new forward B (which was very similar to Simon's dangling whip attack in Castlevania IV) and Zero Suit Samus becoming less of a generic whip user.

Palutena may as well be confirmed now due to Pit's final smash being changed, Palutena's Temple and her trophies.

Ridley obviously is a stage hazard. I am of the opinion Sakurai is trying to let us down easy on this one. Some people are maintaining hope, but I find him being playable very unlikely now.

Pac-Man gets a bump due to the Galaga assist trophy, the first in game acknowledgement of Namco.

As you said, Takamaru's chances decrease, due to Greninjs shurikens and all around ninja-ness. He always seemed to have stiff competition amoung sword wielders. It is interesting however other katana wielding characters Lyn and Goroh are ATs again and Saki is confirmed an AT as well. However, this probably just increases the odds of Shulk, Chrom and Isaac.

K. Rool becomes more likely due to the appearance of the kremlins.

 

[Arcadenik]

Duck Hunt Dog still has a chance!!! He was not shown as an Assist Trophy!!!

Wandering Heroes still have a chance!!! They were not shown in the background of the Find Mii stage like the Mii was!!!

@ Vann Accessible I would be shocked but very happy if Simon Belmont replaced Snake.... I have always wanted Simon for many years... I love Castlevania games.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Simon Belmont's likelihood increase slightly due to Snake's decreased chances along with Sheik getting a new forward B (which was very similar to Simon's dangling whip attack in Castlevania IV) and Zero Suit Samus becoming less of a generic whip user.

You should add that to the straw grasging thread. I'll add your points about Veterans to the list.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dr. Kawashima lives! If that is the not-unlockable ATs (I doubt Kawashima would be secret AT), I think it's a good sign for Kawashima as boss or playable. (I'm hoping for playable)

 

[Jason the Yoshi]

Isaac, Shadow, Palutena, Duck Hunt Dog, Krystal, and Dixie Kong survive.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I was thinking of making a thread like this. I have a few observations to contribute.

Judging from series icons, items and stages, Capt. Falcon, Ness, Wario and Metaknight are all obviously returning. As if we didn't know that already.

Squirtle and Ivysaur are most likely cut. We got a new water type, and Charizard was clearly the most likely of PT's mons to be salavaged. Mewtwo's odds of returning decrease as well

Ganondorf's continued absence leads me to hope he's being reworked a bit. Given how everyone else is being tweaked, it seems pretty likely.

Snake's likelihood falls due to Sheik getting grenades.

Simon Belmont's likelihood increase slightly due to Snake's decreased chances along with Sheik getting a new forward B (which was very similar to Simon's dangling whip attack in Castlevania IV) and Zero Suit Samus becoming less of a generic whip user.

Palutena may as well be confirmed now due to Pit's final smash being changed, Palutena's Temple and her trophies.

Ridley obviously is a stage hazard. I am of the opinion Sakurai is trying to let us down easy on this one. Some people are maintaining hope, but I find him being playable very unlikely now.

Pac-Man gets a bump due to the Galaga assist trophy, the first in game acknowledgement of Namco.

As you said, Takamaru's chances decrease, due to Greninjs shurikens and all around ninja-ness. He always seemed to have stiff competition amoung sword wielders. It is interesting however other katana wielding characters Lyn and Goroh are ATs again and Saki is confirmed an AT as well. However, this probably just increases the odds of Shulk, Chrom and Isaac.

K. Rool becomes more likely due to the appearance of the kremlins.

Pretty agreeable but after greninja a trailer most of us are concluding mewtwos odds are hurt but probably only by like 10 between 15 percent.

 

[CyberWolfBia]

The Miis haven't changed their potential presence with the yesterday's Direct; The first time we saw the Find Mii stage, the cage was empty .. With the scene of a Mii trapped in that cage yesterday, while all the characters that were shown fighting aren't Miis, it's likely that is the same case of Alfonzo applied there; or maybe while you play as your Mii in this stage, a generic Mii appears in the cage.

But the others cited are all correct, ... and, call me crazy, but I still see chances for Ridley.

 

[Speculator]

I'm not sure to what degree Greninja really affects Takamaru's chances. If he has, it's more that he's encroached upon the general Japanese aesthetic, which otherwise would have been unique to Takamaru. The shuriken don't seem to be much of a conflict, because Takamaru doesn't use shuriken. His default projectiles are throwing knives, which can be upgraded to fireballs and windmill swords. Takamaru also isn't necessarily an agile fighter - he's a samurai, not a ninja. He's quick with his sword, but not on his feet.

 

[loganhogan]

Tom Nook was severly wounded.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

The Miis haven't changed their potential presence with the yesterday's Direct; The first time we saw the Find Mii stage, the cage was empty .. With the scene of a Mii trapped in that cage yesterday, while all the characters that were shown fighting aren't Miis, it's likely that is the same case of Alfonzo applied there; or maybe while you play as your Mii in this stage, a generic Mii appears in the cage.

But the others cited are all correct, ... and, call me crazy, but I still see chances for Ridley.

Crazy. And I include the Mii because it's a blow agains them however minor.

 

[Deleted member]

The Miis haven't changed their potential presence with the yesterday's Direct; The first time we saw the Find Mii stage, the cage was empty .. With the scene of a Mii trapped in that cage yesterday, while all the characters that were shown fighting aren't Miis, it's likely that is the same case of Alfonzo applied there; or maybe while you play as your Mii in this stage, a generic Mii appears in the cage.

But the others cited are all correct, ... and, call me crazy, but I still see chances for Ridley.

Thing about the Miis that differs from Toon Link, is that Toon Link was a totally different version of the character than what got into Smash Bros, lower poly model and outfit wasn't the same. Miis also appeared throughout the online portions of the direct, hinting they were indeed part of the profile system and customization on other characters got rid of their uniqueness bid. They also didn't get their own icon for the Find Mii stage, only a crown. I think it's fair enough to say they're wounded if not de-confirmed.

 

[Sebz]

Pokemon:
-Genesect is still in the running seeing as he wasn't in a pokeball!!
-I actually feel that Mewtwo's chances were hurt due to many factors (Two Mega-Evos Already/ Both Lucario and Greninja have a charge ball attack/ Ridley deconfirm hurt many of the "shoe in" characters)

DK:
-Kremlings boosted K.Rool quite a bit imo.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Characters that get a boost significantly

King k rool (kremlings are enemy's in smash run)

Pac-man (2 items from the pictures and 1 from the direct sky rocket him the s flag the galaga Ufos and PONG assist trophy (the worlds first namco game))

Bandana dee (he's not dedede side special anymore but the hurt part is the normal version of him is a enemy)


Character who get a slight improvement

Duck hunt dog (he survive the assist trophy murder massacre)

Wonderful red (another survivor and remember when sakurai gave a suprise visit to platinum)

Mach-rider (I know what you asking huh!?! It's the balloon fighter stage the villagers hat what it shows me is he might be giving balloon fighter and Mach rider another shot for this series)

Injury

Snake (he was not shown at this direct and plus with shiek getting grenades)

Mewtwo (only very little though just because a pokemon slots but ivysaur and squirtle or like 98% kicked because of charizard alone and transformation mechanic is gone are gone and the 2 don't even compare to jigglypuff and mewtwo)


Almost killed

Ridley (his shadow was on the pyrosphere stage and he was not the newcomer on the direct the only thing that can save him is the other m one being the hazard on the stage and Kraid takes his place when ridley is being played as or the super metroid ridley is playable and his clone does the work)

Lip (the lip stick is a item again)

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I'm not sure to what degree Greninja really affects Takamaru's chances. If he has, it's more that he's encroached upon the general Japanese aesthetic, which otherwise would have been unique to Takamaru. The shuriken don't seem to be much of a conflict, because Takamaru doesn't use shuriken. His default projectiles are throwing knives, which can be upgraded to fireballs and windmill swords. Takamaru also isn't necessarily an agile fighter - he's a samurai, not a ninja. He's quick with his sword, but not on his feet.

This. There are ****loads of weapons/abilities to choose from and he doesn't really need the shirukens at all. It's still pretty amusing that people keep confusing Taka for a ninja nowadays. XD

 

[Morian]

Pac-man (2 items from the pictures and 1 from the direct sky rocket him the s flag the galaga Ufos and PONG assist trophy (the worlds first namco game))

Actually, that AT isn't Pong, is Color Tv Game 15 a Nintendo clone Pong console. Just said. (My english has limits, sorry for any gramatical error).

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Seeing Namco assist trophies last night has convinced me we'll be seeing playable Pacman.

Interesting how the Namco assists were all retro styled though. I'd prefer us getting arcade Pacman instead of 3D Pacman. Sakurai would find a way to make it work.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I'm not sure to what degree Greninja really affects Takamaru's chances. If he has, it's more that he's encroached upon the general Japanese aesthetic, which otherwise would have been unique to Takamaru. The shuriken don't seem to be much of a conflict, because Takamaru doesn't use shuriken. His default projectiles are throwing knives, which can be upgraded to fireballs and windmill swords. Takamaru also isn't necessarily an agile fighter - he's a samurai, not a ninja. He's quick with his sword, but not on his feet.

Yep. Throwing stars were only his main weapon in Nintendo Land. He primarily uses a sword everywhere else. Saying throwing stars are his main weapon is kind of like saying arrows are Link's.

 

[DaDavid]

The Direct obviously revealed a lot in terms of...well, everything. Among all that stuff, we saw things that related to our most wanted, or even characters we didn't want, so how has your outlook on those characters changed as a result?

For me, the Direct mostly served to make me feel a bit worse about characters. Ridley for example has been seen in shadow form during a discussion about stage bosses, so yeah... Additionally, it seems the other two PT Pokemon have been scrapped, which saddens me a bit.

On the positive side though, not seeing Shulk or Isaac as Assist Trophies makes me feel if not more hopeful, then at least like they dodged a bullet. And I'm more certain then ever about Palutena thanks to that fake-out trophy quiz thing he did.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Actually, that AT isn't Pong, is Color Tv Game 15 a Nintendo clone Pong console. Just said. (My english has limits, sorry for any gramatical error).

I just figured it out accually so yea mis print the 2 namco items help pac man

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

Lip's deconfirmed IMO. Gaezhero-leak seems to show some interesting points though, so take it as you will:

GaeozHero Leak (2/1/14)

Claims:

• Diddy Kong returns
• Minecart Madness is a Wii U stage
• A newcomer uses Tetris blocks and other puzzle items to fight
• Diddy Kong and this (Ms. Tetris) newcomer will be revealed this month (Feb. 2014) (Diddy Kong was revealed, but no Tetris-themed character was revealed by February's end)
• Master Ball is an item
• Adventure Mode has a desert level, a factory level, and a volcano level (Smash Run?)
• Shadow Moses Island returns (Possible, but not likely)
• Zelda and Rosalina both have the ability to summon a controllable helper *Zelda has a Phantom*
• Palutena is playable *Points directing to her being quite a plenty now*
• Lip's Stick returns as an item

If it's right, we're either getting a new character while Lip's Stick has deconfirmed Lip, or Lip's "Ms.Tetris".

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Well gee, Plasm Wraith still hasn't been disconfirmed.

Genesect was kinda wounded, but he wasn't killed in the Pokeball massacre.

 

[Deleted member]

Taking into account the Gematsu's leak, so I won't mention anyone on there as I see them as good as confirmed.

Dixie Kong chances are hurt; not because of recent development towards the character, but because it's looking increasingly likely DK will only get one newcomer if any and the Kremling's appearance in Smash shows that Sakurai has not forgotten about King K. Rool. Increasingly depleting space along with intensified competition from K. Rool may cost her a spot, though that's not to say that she isn't still a prominent candidate or that DK can't get two newcomers.

Ridley is one character that took the biggest dive. Being hinted as a boss character isn't exactly a good sign for playable Ridley. Only way Ridley can get in now is if pulls a R.O.B. and holds multiple roles in Smash; one non-playable and one playable. Unfortunately, Ridley's situation reminds me more of Toad's fate than Toon Link's. Which sucks as he was one of the most deserving characters.

I am also doubting the return of Squirtle and Ivysaur. There is no way that they are going to get priority over Mewtwo and Jigglypuff. Another thing to note is that Charizard and Squirtle/Ivysaur are not the same situation; Charizard is the most popular Pokémon of all time and is one of the most important to the Pokémon franchise. Squirtle/Ivysaur don't have the same credentials. Sadly, I seem them being scrapped, though thankfully, they should be the only Nintendo veterans axed (any other Nintendo cuts seems extremely unlikely). I'm going to miss playing as Squirtle.

Roy also seems a lot less likely, though this is because Chrom was leaked to be in the game. He still has a shot though; there is an off-chance of Fire Emblem receiving four characters (better than just two) and if DLC happens, Roy will probably be among the ones offered. But right now, I see him as a planned character that's cut due to time constraints.

However, all is not gloom and doom for the potential candidates here. I am still betting on Mewtwo's return (and I will bet hard money on this); no way will they pass on the most wanted character. I am also fully expecting a retro character; Sakurai said he likes reviving them and it's natural to expect one. Could be anyone, though Mach Rider (my underdog choice), Takamaru and Lip are stand-outs (unless of course Lip's item was present and I just forgot).

If we get more than fourteen newcomers (which could very well happen, but not a sure thing), that opens up to new possibility as well.

I'm feeling much better about King K. Rool. Originally, the Gematsu's leak had me more worried about the King as it meant two DK newcomers was a lot less likely, but the Kremlings being showed off shows that Sakurai doesn't care for recency nearly as much as people think and that at the very least, he hasn't forgotten the Kremlings. I'm more happy about the news because it means K. Rool isn't dead yet, but the Kremlings appearance in Smash does seem to boost his chance nicely. I see him as the most likely newcomer outside of leaked characters and Mewtwo.

Isaac is also better off, though to a lesser extent. He survive the Assist Trophy massacre, which is great news as that sure did crush a lot of hopes (R.I.P. Saki). At this point, if we get a second Assist Trophy "graduation", it'll be Isaac. However, since we are getting eight new series, a ninth one is very questionable I doubt we will get as much newcomers as Brawl.

One thing is for sure, though, space is a lot more competitive than before. With probably fourteen newcomers already in, brutal fights will occur for more possible spots (that may not even be open).

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Lip's deconfirmed IMO. Gaezhero-leak seems to show some interesting points though, so take it as you will:

GaeozHero Leak (2/1/14)

Claims:

• Diddy Kong returns
• Minecart Madness is a Wii U stage
• A newcomer uses Tetris blocks and other puzzle items to fight
• Diddy Kong and this (Ms. Tetris) newcomer will be revealed this month (Feb. 2014) (Diddy Kong was revealed, but no Tetris-themed character was revealed by February's end)
• Master Ball is an item
• Adventure Mode has a desert level, a factory level, and a volcano level (Smash Run?)
• Shadow Moses Island returns (Possible, but not likely)
• Zelda and Rosalina both have the ability to summon a controllable helper *Zelda has a Phantom*
• Palutena is playable *Points directing to her being quite a plenty now*
• Lip's Stick returns as an item

If it's right, we're either getting a new character while Lip's Stick has deconfirmed Lip, or Lip's "Ms.Tetris".

True interesting but ma Tetris wasn't shown till April the rumor claimed that will happen in feburary so it's still busted but only just now

 

[BlindFox]

Without being confirmed or disconfirmed: Isaac, Palutena and Krystal.

There are still lots of rounds to go, but seems that these three fellas have found a spot to the next round. C'mon! You all three can do it! Gambare!

 

[DaDavid]

Yeah 29 roster spots already taken is no joke, especially with official, total, undeniable evidence that Sakurai considered transformation characters separate characters.

I forgot to mention K.Rool who I think got a pretty big boost thanks to the Kremlings in Smash Run. Personally still skeptical on the Gematsu leak just because it didn't mention the one newcomer we actually got in this Direct by name, but... anything to suggest Shulk is okay by me.

 

[Starbound]

* Palutena: The Queen of this Wasteland. Removed from Pit's Final Smash, fake Palutena is a trophy and loads of Kid icarus content in Smash Run.

Sorry, I had to.

Packers, The Krok and the Tuna are looking much stronger after this presentation than they have yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three playable.

 

[The Drilling Juggernaut]

Mii won't be deconfirmed until we either get an Assist trophy called "Mii," or Sakurai comes out and says they aren't playable himself. The crown means nothing really. We still have the Tomodachi Collection stage. For all we know that's the Mii stage.

K. Rool just skyrocketed. The only thing holding him back was not being in a game for almost a decade. Kremlings coming back alone is a massive boost, but they came back alongside Tikis. If they wanted to they could have just had Tiki's to represent DK in the Smash Run, but nope they brought back the Kremlings.

 

[Mr_Anderson]

Travis Touchdown, my personal most-wanted newcomer, left perfectly unscathed, mostly because he has a very small chance of getting in. But hey, nothing denied his playability, so I can still believe!

 

[CombatScouter]

The Battleship Halberd returns, so I'd say that's a point for its commander.

Not that anyone really doubted Meta Knight would be returning.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

It's probably already been mentioned but it occurred to me that Toon Zelda and Toon Shiek/Tetra has surely been sunk now.

It's very hard to imagine Toon Zelda and Toon Shiek/Tetra getting their own individual slots on the roster.

 

[Snakeyes]

Practically confirmed:
Palutena - 'nuff said.

Highly likely:
Ridley - Much like Palutena, there was way too much trolling going on for it to account to nothing in the end.

More likely than before:
Pac-Man - Showing Namco items without a logo could be a hint.
King K. Rool - Another hint, this time with Kremling enemies in Smash Rush.
A new playable Zelda character - The trivia part with Fi makes a Skyward Sword rep more likely.

Fire Emblem:
Everyone except Lyn and Tiki is still in the running. The latter's mention makes an Awakening rep very likely, as if it wasn't already obvious.

Pokemon still in the running:
Mewtwo - If the Master Ball and subtle Greninja trolling weren't enough, there's also the fact that Mega Evolution Pokemon are getting preferential treatment.
Blaziken - Another Pokemon with a Mega Evo, was featured alongside Lucario in that Pokken Fighters leak and is the only viable Gen III rep.
Genesect - Only viable Gen V rep. Wasn't seen in the trailer.
Pichu - Same as above but for Gen II.

Unchanged:
Snake - Shiek getting grenades doesn't mean jack.
Mii - As seen with Toon Link, being in a stage's background doesn't mean anything.
Mach Rider
An Advance Wars rep
Lip
Krystal
Dixie Kong
Shulk or the dude from X
Isaac
Black Shadow
Mike Jones
Captain Syrup
Mona
Wonder Red
A second Sonic rep
Reps from other third party companies.

 

[AnOkayDM]

It's probably already been mentioned but it occurred to me that Toon Zelda and Toon Shiek/Tetra has surely been sunk now.

It's very hard to imagine Toon Zelda and Toon Shiek/Tetra getting their own individual slots on the roster.

I was thinking about that last night. With the Phantom being part of Zelda's moveset, it's definitely a strike against Toon Zelda. Nevertheless, Tetra still has whatever chances (slim) she did before the Direct.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Rhythm Heaven remains untouched and forgotten

 

[Speculator]

More likely than before:
A new playable Zelda character - The trivia part with Fi makes a Skyward Sword rep more likely.

What's your logic behind this? I don't even slightly see how a Fi trophy points to a Skyward Sword newcomer. Sheik's separation from Zelda takes the number of physical LoZ roster slots up to five, counting Ganondorf. I'd therefore argue that as it's unlikely LoZ will move to outnumber Nintendo's mascot series on the roster, all potential Zelda newcomers have taken a hit.

 

[Starcutter]

and forgotten

not according to the leaks.