Sorcerer's 11 Open

[ExLight]

The two of you are treated as a single slot. Usually, you share an account, but because this is a game within a game you can just use your individual accounts and play like normal!

oh mkay

##funrun
##Pixel

 

[Pythag]

I never played a hydra before how does it work

Your parnter goes afk and then you play a normal game of mafia

 

[ExLight]

Your parnter goes afk and then you play a normal game of mafia

oof
sounds like fun alright

do they pop in last second to change my action and screw me over

 

[ExLight]

when is the deadline Xivii

 

[Xivii]

Until someone is ded

 

[funnier6]

Your parnter goes afk and then you play a normal game of mafia

This is pretty much my exact experience with hydras lol

 

[ranmaru]

Usually you are about to post something but your account posted something and you think "wait I didn't post anything yet... oh right it was my hydra partner".

 

[#HBC | Kary]

hey, Kary
Have you heard of the Monty Hall problem

yes

Let's assume I'm the goat behind the door, you choose right now (D2) that my slot as the scum
badabee, badaboo, 6 people died, there's me, you, and another person left
and they say one of these people is scum, and the other is town; would you change your vote?

who I would vote for in final 3 would depend on who else was there.

whether or not I should change my vote in final 3 is not a monty hall problem.

 

[Xivii]

OK #HBC | Kary I think I have some solid evidence on Wisp. First, Z was fully aware that I probably targeted him, but Wisp has been playing all day without any reservation in giving his reads. Before I came online, he made this read list with Z as highly town. It's not the kind of list you make before you know what the cop check was:

1. #HBC | Kary
2. Z25
3. ExLight
4. funnier6
5. ranmaru
6. Raxxel

we have this PoE, we can subtract one after we get Xivii's check
which means we just have to auto in this PoE
wolves will have work hard for this game that's for sure

Kary gives me that uninformed/no partners vibes, doing his own thing
Ex doesnt feeling malicious in the slightest, could possibly be wrong here IDK
Z25 is the second most natural player in this game next to Osie IMO, and no one cared about their train in the slightest
Raxxel, no read at this time, quick read through of his ISO, doesnt push me either way, need more time

so bye PoE we get Ranmaru/Funnier

Wisp

Xivii
Pythag

Z25

Kary
Ex

Raxxel

Ranmaru
Funnier

thought this is kind of lazy since I dont really have a read on Ranmaru/Funnier, its just process of elimination. I'll work on that another day to see if this makes sense

Funnier is playing this aggressive 20 questions game, with a lack of understanding which comes from the typical power wolf, the problem is very rarely see these kinds of players, but that also doesnt mean its not happening here

can think of anything to say on Ranmaru as of right now, Osie thinks they are town, I don't really have a reason to agree at this point and time

These are just some of many posts that come off as pure to me. The first two give me the impression that they are coming from the mind of someone who is paying attention thoroughly enough to pick up on subtle scumtells and discrepancies that might otherwise be overlooked. The third post isn't the type of approach scum take toward making a scumread. This reads more like Wisp is trying to figure Ranmaru out.

Your reads feel like someone who is trying to hide TMI, rather than being truly hedgy

what exactly does this post do for anyone?
Do you think Funnier is town?
Do you think you don't deserve a town read?

I have you as a wolf read ranmaru
Thoughts?
to be fair I didnt really make a case on you yet, wont happen tonight

What about my wolf read on Funnier? do you think I am wrong?
or any of my thoughts on other players?

Lastly, and I think this is the strongest point, Wisp reacted the exact opposite way a wolf would when I began hinting at a Wolf check. Ex asked me to provide my result, and I responded here:

Once everyone has had a chance to post their pre-result thoughts

Wisp continued to play completely normally and continued with his thread reading/posting his thoughts:

Reread the whole thread
still think its just {Funnier, Ranmaru}

Raxxel
Kary

both of these slots don't have an agenda at all

I am not making/doing a real ISO of Ranmaru as of yet, don't feel like its needed
if this gets me voted, then w/e

I'll take this team to my grave

peace

Why the hell is Ranmaru such a strong read for all of you...

if I am wrong about Ranmaru, then
evaluate Kary/Raxxel, starting with Raxxel

ExLight
did you post town/mafia games in the thread for yourself?
if not, can you?

I want to be more confident with my read of Exlight

idk, I just want to be able to confidently build a case on you, that isnt just, "He is pure"
in the off-chance I do die

hmm I am going to work on a team that make sense in the off chance that funnier is town here

There's no hint AT ALL that he was under the impression that I had a guilty result on Z. You can tell from Z's (and Funnier's) responses however that they were cognizant of the fact that I was about to come out with a wolf result.

 

[Xivii]

Mini Vote Count

Pixel (1) - Zexy

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch! Deadline: until someone is lynched or killed!

 

[ranmaru]

Zen, what's your thoughts on Rax?

 

[#HBC | Kary]

Xivii good post thanks bruh

 

[ExLight]

There's no hint AT ALL that he was under the impression that I had a guilty result on Z. You can tell from Z's (and Funnier's) responses however that they were cognizant of the fact that I was about to come out with a wolf result.

that's an interesting point

 

[ranmaru]

Final Vote Count
UtopianPoyzin - 6 - Pythag, Kary, Ranmaru, RaxxeL, Z25, osieorb18
Z25 - 2 - UtopianPoyzin, Xivii
Kary - 1 - Wiisp,
Ranmaru - 1 - funnier6
Xivii - 1 - ExLight

Spoiler: Vote History

UtopianPoyzin: osieorb18(4) -> Z25(17) -> Unvote(42)
Mamboo07/Kary: Z25(3) -> Replaced by Kary(18) -> Z25(?) -> Xivii(35) -> UtopianPoyzin(40)
Xivii: ExLight(1) -> Mamboo07(12) -> Z25(14) -> Unvote(22) -> UtopianPoyzin(23) -> Wiisp(33) -> ExLight(34) -> Z25(44)
Z25: Lore(20) -> UtopianPoyzin(48)
Pythag: funnier6(13) -> UtopianPoyzin(30)
Lore/Wiisp: osieorb18(11) -> Replaced by Wiisp(24) -> Z25(26) -> Pythag(32) -> Unvote(40) -> Kary(41)
ExLight: Pythag(21) -> Xivii(36) -> Unvote(38)
funnier6: ExLight(7) -> Ranmaru(27)
Ranmaru: funnier6(6) -> OsieOrb18(9) -> Unvote(10) -> Z25(19) -> ExLight(25) -> Pythag(29) -> Xivii(37) -> UtopianPoyzin(39) -> osieorb18(45) -> UP(46)
RaxxeL: Lore(5) -> Pythag(31) -> UP(47)
osieorb18: Ranmaru(2) -> Xivii(8) -> Unvote(15) -> Lore(16) -> Pythag(28) -> Unvote(32) -> Kary(43)

Raxxel Why is your voting pattern on the low side? (Lore(5) -> Pythag(31) -> UP(47))

 

[Xivii]

Zen, what's your thoughts on Rax?

Null at this point. If Funnier doesn't end it, they'd be my second choice.

 

[Wiisp]

Null at this point. If Funnier doesn't end it, they'd be my second choice.

BUT GOD FORBID I HAVE A NULL ON THEM

 

[Wiisp]

I play with good players... sometimes the subtle tells is what distinguishes a wolf and a town
great iso btw

I didnt really care about your information, because I wanted to get their own my own anyways
the only sad thing was I wrong about Ranmaru, I am hoping that I am right on funnier, but Im not super hopeful
like I get two feelings

1. Power wolfer, pushing anything with the lack of understanding
2. His reaction to Z just didnt feel like someone who realized he now had to play this game solo

number two is contrary to the feeling I get from Ex/Raxxel

like kary is doing **** all, but like they feel alone, and they are posting w/e they feel like, oblivious to the backlash they may receive, as well as they are also the bomb (99% certain on that)

 

[ExLight]

as well as they are also the bomb (99% certain on that)

why the **** you keep insisting on that
we all already agreed that outing the bomb is bad for town

the bomb gives us a 3rd attempt to hit scum but can also hurt town, and hitting them is the only thing that can cause scum to win and even thought you already pointed out it yourself you keep poking that
so, like, if you truly believe anyone is the bomb you should keep the thoughts to yourself

 

[Wiisp]

the bomb doesnt die today or tonight
maybe night 3, but they have a PoE to kill in
so regardless of who they kill, they are shortening the PoE
and I do not want to win due to the hunter's 1v1 mechanic

 

[ExLight]

the bomb doesnt die today or tonight
maybe night 3, but they have a PoE to kill in
so regardless of who they kill, they are shortening the PoE
and I do not want to win due to the hunter's 1v1 mechanic

they're not going to kill the bomb N3 with a town conf around

 

[ExLight]

so regardless of who they kill, they are shortening the PoE

lol no
they're going to shoot someone that has a green check on them
the PoE will stay the same

 

[Wiisp]

if we are not killing Z today, then we have to kill him tomorrow
but it still seems so pointless to leave a wolf alive, just to try to PoE the second wolf, or outright kill them

 

[ExLight]

if we are not killing Z today, then we have to kill him tomorrow

we kill Z25 on D4 because we need him around in case one of the mislynches from D2 or D3 is the bomb

 

[Wiisp]

lol no
they're going to shoot someone that has a green check on them
the PoE will stay the same

what, you dont have to kill a green check if the PoE is still wide enough

 

[Wiisp]

we kill Z25 on D4 because we need him around in case one of the mislynches from D2 or D3 is the bomb

what the hell are you talking about

 

[Wiisp]

we are not keeping a confirmed wolf alive for 2 day phases

 

[ExLight]

what, you dont have to kill a green check if the PoE is still wide enough

wut
why would they kill someone from the PoE instead of Ran or Pythag

 

[ExLight]

we are not keeping a confirmed wolf alive for 2 day phases

yes we are, we don't want a town bomb blowing up and causing 3 town deaths in a cycle

 

[Wiisp]

wut
why would they kill someone from the PoE instead of Ran or Pythag

I mean maybe not both, but whoever the last one alive probably stays alive because they need to kill the bomb

 

[ExLight]

if a bomb has to go off it has to be during N4 for us to have a 3rd attempt of hitting scum

lynching Z25 right now only leaves us with 2 opportunities of trying to hit scum

 

[Wiisp]

ok i am not leaving Z alive, Exlight is insane
vote: Z25

****ing kill this, I swear to god

 

[Wiisp]

if we do not kill Z today, I am not voting for the rest of the game
and that is a threat

 

[ranmaru]

Still fine with not killing Z today.

 

[ExLight]

ok i am not leaving Z alive, Exlight is insane
vote: Z25

****ing kill this, I swear to god

I literally made two big posts explaining each scenario did you read them

 

[Wiisp]

****ing insane all of you

 

[ranmaru]

Wisp talk to me more about point 2.

 

[ExLight]

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE DECISIONS (keeping Z25):

=======

Lynching the bomb earlier (D2 or now):
(D4) 3v/1s > (N4) 2v/1s > (D5) 1v/1s - Parity!

We can not mislynch twice, no luck intervenes with the game

=======

Not Lynching the bomb + scum hits it:
(D4) 1b+2v/2s - we're forced to lynch Z25 > (N4) 1b+2v/1s

Scenario a)
If scum knows who the bomb is they hit it 100%; bomb hat to pick scum out of the three remaining people (67% of town losing)

Scenario b)
If scum doesn't know who the bomb is they have a 33% chance of hitting it, but if they do the bomb has a 67% of hitting town (33%*67% = 22% of town losing)

We can not mislynch twice; but our chances of not losing can be either 32% or 78%

=======

Not Lynching the bomb + scum doesn't hit it N4:
(D4) 1b+2v/2s - we're forced to lynch Z25 > (N4) 1b+2v/1s > (D5) 1b+1v/1s
Bomb claims, we guarantee a draw if we mislynch; or we guarantee a win if we lynch correctly

SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE DECISIONS (lynching Z25 today):

If the bomb survives until D4:
(D2) 1b+6v/2s > (N2) 1b+5v/1s > (D3) 1b+4v/1s > (N3) 1b+3v/1s > (D4) 1b+2v/1s

If we lynch correctly (25%) we win
If we lynch the bomb (25%) we'll have a 67% chance of losing and 33% chance of winning;

If we mislynch a vanilla (N5) 1b+1v/1s (50%) we'll have a 50% chance of scum hitting the bomb during the night (if it hasn't claimed), and 50% chance of the bomb hitting scum; if scum hits vanilla we get at least a draw (so, in this scenario, a 50% of a draw, 25% of winning, 25% of losing).

In this scenario we can afford to mislynch only once

========

If the bombs gets mislynched before D4 (aka D3 because that's the only thing in between):
(D2) 1b+6v/2s > (N2) 1b+5v/1s > (D3) 1b+4v/1s

20% chance of winning (hitting scum), or 80% of hitting town and us going to: (N3) 0b+3v/1s > (D4) 2v/1s, which means a 3-way LyLo

well that's pretty much the same scenario from the first example; we get to try two mislynches, no luck factor involved

 

[ExLight]

Scenario a) and b) both became 50% with ran's green check I think
I need to redo the percentages considering it, but the idea stays the same

 

[Wiisp]

imagine not lynching a confirmed wolf, over mechanical shenanigans
mind-boggling

ranmaru

 

[ExLight]

imagine not lynching a confirmed wolf, over mechanical shenanigans
mind-boggling

ranmaru

If we lynch him the bomb will most likely hit town
that costs us one day phase and makes it so we can't mislynch even once

please read it