Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Smasher 101]

Okay, quick question to everyone: What % would you guys give for neutral?

I've seen people say they won't mind someone and then giving less than 50%. If 50% isn't considered neutral as I first thought, I'll adjust my % accordingly.

50% is my neutral/indifferent score. Characters below that I wouldn't necessarily mind, but I would rather see others get in over them.

Krystal's chances: 15%

Wolf is extremely likely to return, and at the moment I'm rather doubtful any franchise will get more than two characters for DLC. If there is a second character for the series though, it would certainly be Krystal, as she's the only other character with decent popularity and would be easier to make different than any other Star Fox character.

Want: 5%

I personally think Star Fox representation should be done for this game after Wolf's return. Even if I had to pick a fourth, I'm not sure I would even choose Krystal. I'm not really a fan of hers and I'm not sure she'd be someone I'd enjoy playing as.

Only reason she's not getting a 0% is because she does have her merits and thus I'd still be willing to buy her if she was released.

Dixie Kong prediction: 44.74%

Will definitely get a worse score than King K. Rool, but should still do fairly well overall.

Nominations: Inkling x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Dixie Kong prediction: 44.74%

Again with the overly specific numbers

 

[ES. Dinah]

I don't see the appeal in bringing back wolf. We already have Fox and Falco. Smash could benefit from a character like Krystal who won't use a blaster and kicks for a change.

 

[Fire_Voyager]

So, who's the clone you're taking about?

Your Avatar, Lucas... Not a Bad Clone as ...
Being a Clone isn't bad, but for DLC, one spect someting "all new", but we get "ex characters", if we get Roy after Lucas... Wolf would be an Obvious option, and that will hurt the option to get new characters...
Thats the reason I would never vote for an ex character...

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Your Avatar, Lucas... Not a Bad Clone as ...
Being a Clone isn't bad, but for DLC, one spect someting "all new", but we get "ex characters", if we get Roy after Lucas... Wolf would be an Obvious option, and that will hurt the option to get new characters...
Thats the reason I would never vote for an ex character...

But Lucas isn't even a clone

 

[Fire_Voyager]

But Lucas isn't even a clone

Semi-Clone then... Like Wolf, Falco, Ganondorf....

 

[IceBreakerXY]

Krystal changes:35%
Is say 35% becuase will we have wolf.If wolf was never in brawl i would probably put her higher....But i can't see her getting in over wolf.She has her fans,she could be unique with that staff and she's another female.Heck she's an animal female to boot.But i feel the fact that wolf is more popular is both a vet and villian is holding krystal back.Smash 5 i could see her happening but for 4.I can't

Krystal want:15%
Not even gonna lie i think slippy would be a better star fox.Either as a joke character(being a pichu to fox) or a character that uses technology to fight.I just would perfer slippy and at this point if/when wolf cmoes back i doubt wrer getting two star fox characters as DLC.

Dixie prediction
Changes:58.86%
Want:54%

Slippy x 1
shantae x 2
maxwell x 2

 

[PK_Wonder]

Nominations update is up!

All of this Krystal discussion has been great to read. I love speculation and thorough discussion of Nintendo characters/series that Rate Their Chances brings, even if we turn out to be completely, utterly wrong once all is said and done.

Chances - 25%
While I expect most people to be pleasantly surprised in the number of DLC characters we get (I predict and am rating as if we are getting 6 minimum counting Mewtwo and Lucas), I am in the camp that thinks Sakurai will want to spread the wealth and not put too many eggs in one franchises's basket. I am confident Wolf will get in, and E3 of course is the perfect time to announce him parallel to a Star Fox debut trailer. Krystal would be a great bonus alongside, or even fake-out instead of, Wolf. If she isn't announced in parallel to the Star Fox hype train, she could also eventually be quite the contender from the fan ballot. She's definitely a popular choice, possibly the most popular female contender.

Krystal probably has a better chance of getting in with Wolf than Dixie does with KKR, because Wolf is a relatively speaking easier to make veteran. (That said, don't question that I will Dixie higher than Krystal tomorrow, since KKR has a lower chance than Wolf, though I still think KKR is the most likely newcomer).

Want - 65%
I used to want nothing to do with her, but revisiting Star Fox Adventures and her overall cool factor/staff-based moveset put me in her supporter camp. She's not in my top five, but easily top ten. If she doesn't get in as DLC and has a strong role in Star Fox, she's going to be a leading candidate for Smash NX.


nominate Paper Mario x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Semi-Clone then... Like Wolf, Falco, Ganondorf....

I wouldn't even go that far. The only thing that's exactly the same as Ness is his Final Smash

 

[Bunny8093]

Krystal

Chances: 35%

Want: 100%

I'm honestly not sure about her chances. Tried to be as fair as possible without my want getting in the way.

Dixie

Chances: 40%

Want: 20%


Sorry if I'm doing it wrong not exactly familiar with this whole thing and I'm in a slight rush.

 

[Aetheri]

Nominations update is up!

All of this Krystal discussion has been great to read. I love speculation and thorough discussion of Nintendo characters/series that Rate Their Chances brings, even if we turn out to be completely, utterly wrong once all is said and done.

Sometimes the best part is when Sakurai just makes fools out of all of us...such is the case when he added ROB and WFT to the fray and everyone is literally wah?

 

[Nimbostratus]

Krystal
Chance- 8%
Wolf would come first, like it or not. Don't expect to see two Star Fox DLCs. That being said, she will have a good chance next time around if Wolf gets in and/or the next Star Fox game does well.
Want- 35%
I'm not really feeling it for DLC, but she would at least be unique. Again, if she's awesome in the new Star Fox game, I'll probably be a decently big supporter next time.

Dixie Kong Predictions- 41%
Nominations:
Impa x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Krystal
Chance- 8%
Wolf would come first, like it or not. Don't expect to see two Star Fox DLCs. That being said, she will have a good chance next time around if Wolf gets in and/or the next Star Fox game does well.
Want- 35%
I'm not really feeling it for DLC, but she would at least be unique. Again, if she's awesome in the new Star Fox game, I'll probably be a decently big supporter next time.

Dixie Kong Predictions- 41%
Nominations:
Impa x5

(overused but hey)

 

[jahkzheng]

Nominations update is up!

All of this Krystal discussion has been great to read. I love speculation and thorough discussion of Nintendo characters/series that Rate Their Chances brings, even if we turn out to be completely, utterly wrong once all is said and done.

Chances - 25%
While I expect most people to be pleasantly surprised in the number of DLC characters we get (I predict and am rating as if we are getting 6 minimum counting Mewtwo and Lucas), I am in the camp that thinks Sakurai will want to spread the wealth and not put too many eggs in one franchises's basket. I am confident Wolf will get in, and E3 of course is the perfect time to announce him parallel to a Star Fox debut trailer. Krystal would be a great bonus alongside, or even fake-out instead of, Wolf. If she isn't announced in parallel to the Star Fox hype train, she could also eventually be quite the contender from the fan ballot. She's definitely a popular choice, possibly the most popular female contender.

From what I've seen of polls, this is true the majority of the time. At least in terms of characters that are "always" female. Inkling contends well with Krystal in many polls if you include him/her as female representation. At least, they seem to be marketing with the female Inkling more. Beyond that it's Dixie, and Krystal seems to slightly outvote Dixie in a lot of polls I've seen. Inkling and Krystal trade spots more often, both hanging around the top 5 area in terms of newcomers. Bayonetta and Shantae have strong followings too and on some occasions I see them sneak up there with Inkling and Krystal, but they do have some inclusion limitations that may or may not matter. All in all, I think Krystal can legitimately claim the "most popular female character" spot.

 

[ES. Dinah]

Am I allowed to x5 the same character per day? I'm a little confused.

 

[Delzethin]

Am I allowed to x5 the same character per day? I'm a little confused.

You can use your five nominations per day however you like. Some people put all five toward a single character or concept, while others spread them out.

 

[ES. Dinah]

In that case I will nominate KOS-MOS again X5.

 

[Kero the Invincible]

Krystal
Chance: 20%
That's me being generous. You just can't talk about Krystal's chances without bringing up Wolf, and chances are, if we get another Star Fox rep, it'll be Wolf. If for no other reason than, "he was in Smash before". I know he''s a popular character, but that's just how it feels to me, and I'm hoping Krystal grabs some attention with the new Star Fox game.
Want: 40%
The moment we got 3 Star Fox reps in Brawl, people started expecting there to be 3 in future games as well. Though Star Fox isn't high on my list of wants, I'd prefer if Krystal got in over Wolf. To me, the ballot is a great opportunity for new characters to get their chance, and it seems like a waste for people to be voting back the same old characters. Again, I know some people really like some of those characters, but it's just my two cents.

Dixie Kong
Prediction: I don't presume to know....

Nominations:
Shantae x2
Andy x2 lol
Dixie x1

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Krystal


Chances: 30%

Want: 2%


Sorry Krystal, but until Wolf's back, you're most likely not gonna be included. I'm not gonna be surprised if she makes Smash 5

Dixie: Um....50% just for a gamble

Nominations:

Crash Bandicoot X3
Impa X2

 

[IvanQuote]

Well I missed Cpt Toad. I'll just say my thoughts on him quickly:

Toad
Want: 15%

Have nothing against Toad, I just don't want another Mario Character. That sadly includes Geno.

But I digress:

Krystal:

Chance: 30%

Krystal would make a unique character for sure, but I feel Wolf already has a head up on her for viability. Also I would think the ballot will attempt to appeal to several different fandoms in its character choices.

Want: 60%

Mostly impartial, but I do like the thought of Krystal being a character. She'd surely be different from the other space animals.

Dixie Predixie:
Chance: 60%

Want: 50%

Noms: Quote x5

Edit: changed chance to 30% from 20

 

[Deleted member]

I do find it odd that people are doubting that Krystal will be in Star Fox U.

I mean, she's a very popular Star Fox character, and is the only female member of the team. Why wouldn't they bring her back?

I'm not sure if Krystal will be coming back. I do think she has a legitimate chance of happening at E3 but it will be very telling if she does not show up which could happen given what XenoBrawler610 noted about this potentially being a reboot.

BUT, if she does, I will instantly place her up in at least B tier likelihood (about 50%). It's worth noting Sakurai actually likes the franchise which is why I can see Star Fox getting two characters for DLC whereas I feel DK could realistically not even get one (based on how badly underrepresented it was in the base game).

 

[FancySmash]

Krystal
Chance: 10% - With Wolf still in the open (not to mention other veterans such as Ice Climbers and possibly Snake, 3rd party problems though), Krystal doesn't look like she'll get a spot in Smash. Plus we have other newcomers wanted like K. Rool, Issac, and Bandana Dee.
Want: 10% - Don't play much Star Fox, but I did manage to play adventures and... my experience with it wasn't the best. I also hear that there's a possible ending in Assault with her betraying leaving with Star Wolf. Turncoat! This I cannot forgive. Needless to say, she isn't in my favor...

Hmm? Dixie? Personally I'd prefer a croc to another chimp, but she has good chances. Maybe 61.72% (trying to be specific like everyone else)

EDIT
Forgot my nominations.
X5 Ice Climbers. That is all.

 

[Delzethin]

With Wolf still in the open (not to mention other veterans such as Ice Climbers and possibly Snake, 3rd party problems though),

But why would veterans get higher priority? It seems like there's this assumption that seniority > any other factors, and I don't buy it. Especially when any one of them past Wolf has more potential issues than a lot of newcomer candidates...

 

[A Distant Demon]

But why would veterans get higher priority? It seems like there's this assumption that seniority > any other factors, and I don't buy it. Especially when any one of them past Wolf has more potential issues than a lot of newcomer candidates...

Veterans already have a fanbase based on the huge amount of people who played the precious smash game as well as having work done on them already. Its only logical to have them as higher priority as they sell more to the many already existing fans and being less work. Its just more profits

theres a reason why the only officially announced dlc is veterans. (Although tbh i thonk wolf and roy are it and then all newcomers)

 

[Aetheri]

But why would veterans get higher priority? It seems like there's this assumption that seniority > any other factors, and I don't buy it. Especially when any one of them past Wolf has more potential issues than a lot of newcomer candidates...

Sakurai's buttering us up before laying the big reveals on us...plus it's easier to figure out movesets when they have already been sorted, while the smash team is working on getting veterans for smash ready they probably already started on a few newcomers that will take longer to get sorted so veterans will keep us busy until the newbies come to play...

 

[Princess Toady]

Krystal :

Chance : 35%. I could see it happening. I hope it happens.

Want : 100%. Look at my signature. lol

 

[colder_than_ice]

Krystal
Chance: 30% - She has an undeniably large fan base and Star Fox should definitely be allowed to have four reps if Fire Emblem can have Five. I feel that Krystal's chances are going to be dependant on how big of a role she has in Star Fox U and how many DLC characters Nintendo plans to release.
Want: 35% - I've actually never played any Star Fox game other than 64, so I'm not very familiar with her. I'd be extremely happy for her fans who are probably the most bullied fan base in the Smash community.

Dixie prediction: 36%

Nominations: Henry Flemming x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[jahkzheng]

Krystal
Chance: 10% - With Wolf still in the open (not to mention other veterans such as Ice Climbers and possibly Snake, 3rd party problems though), Krystal doesn't look like she'll get a spot in Smash. Plus we have other newcomers wanted like K. Rool, Issac, and Bandana Dee.
Want: 10% - Don't play much Star Fox, but I did manage to play adventures and... my experience with it wasn't the best. I also hear that there's a possible ending in Assault with her betraying leaving with Star Wolf. Turncoat! This I cannot forgive. Needless to say, she isn't in my favor...

That was in Star Fox Command, a game that even those of us who liked Adventures and Assault though was executed poorly. Command had a choose your own adventure vibe and in one possible scenario Krystal joins Star Wolf. It's a pretty bad knock on her character, but also Fox's. Her reason for leaving is because Fox didn't want her on the team any more because he thought it was too dangerous or something. She took offense to him thinking she wasn't capable so she found work elsewhere. Yeah, it was bad story telling. Felt like stuff neither Fox nor Krystal would do. There's also endings where she has kid with Fox, she just stays on the team normally, and one where she becomes a rogue bounty hunter. At least those are the other ones I'm remembering. I only played Command once.

But why would veterans get higher priority? It seems like there's this assumption that seniority > any other factors, and I don't buy it. Especially when any one of them past Wolf has more potential issues than a lot of newcomer candidates...

I think there's two major reasons to believe vets might get priority...

1) They have established Smash fans. There's lots of characters that Smashers get into without even knowing much about the character's origin game. Roy is a great example since the majority of his fanbase like him based on his Melee appearance. Even those that later tried Roy's game afterwards probably enjoyed it more than they would otherwise simply because they already liked the character. And of course, there's the whole fact that people want what they once had more than they want something new, in general. People grow attached to things this way. Due to this, many many vets have some of the most support for DLC inclusion. So it directly affects popular choice.

2) There's also the theory that it's just easier to add vets. Asking Sakurai and co for newcomers feels harder to attain. There's more competition there. I think a lot of people assume Sakurai could add their requested vet on the side. Lots of people, myself included, believe Wolf is practically confirmed because of his popularity and the fact that Lucas got in when Wolf was easily as popular a request. People think Wolf is already being worked on separate from ballot votes. Fact is, we simply don't know this.

Indications seem to point to the fact that vets may not have priority but they certainly have popularity and we see from the DLC so far that they've gotten the invites first... so may be safe to assume that they at least appear to have and are likely to get priority.

...

I agree though that past Wolf it doesn't seem like there's as much demand or freedom with the other vets... except maybe Roy. Wolf has originality and no limitations unlike other possible vets. The knock on Roy is he'd likely be a clone of a character that's already got a clone in a franchise that is already well represented at least in number. Roy is popular however. The others... Young Link - we already have Toon Link. Pichu - we have lots of Pokemon and we don't need a joke Pikachu clone. ICs - 3DS limitations. Snake - Third Party limitations. Ivysaur and Squirtle - More pokemon that were once part of a transformation character and we're not doing transformations anymore... plus they're not that popular.

 

[Delzethin]

Veterans already have a fanbase based on the huge amount of people who played the precious smash game as well as having work done on them already. Its only logical to have them as higher priority as they sell more to the many already existing fans and being less work. Its just more profits

And yet, what happened every time a newcomer was revealed in the last two years? The fanbase exploded. Time and time again, we've seen that if a newcomer is unique and looks like a blast to play, the newcomer gains a massive following because they're unique and look like a blast to play! The dev team has likely taken notice, and we've seen how they prefer uniqueness over all else (unless you're a bonus clone, but that's a different situation).

So based on what information we know, not counting the supposed leak since it's still ambiguous, it seems likely that Wolf is the only veteran who has a good chance of returning. All the others would either feel redundant among the current roster and therefore seen as not worth paying for by anyone outside their supporters, have major hurdles that'd make adding them significantly harder and less likely to be worth the trouble (Ice Climbers and any third party character fall under here), or are getting too little fan support.

 

[BKupa666]

Darn, missed it. Would've given Krystal 15% for being relatively popular but not overly so and requiring Sakurai to add two Star Fox character as DLC (15% want, only slightly loyal to her because she's a Rare creation). Prediction for Dixie is 45%, since the General Leaks League will rate her really high and a lot of others won't, so it'll balance out. Nominate Shovel Knight x5.

 

[Foxy Renegade]

Krystal
Chance: 55%
My reasoning for these chances is that Krystal has been a frequently requested character for some time now and remains in the Top 5 of most polls that I've seen. Yes, Wolf is likely to get in first, but I don't necessarily believe that means that Krystal is out of luck. We've seen Fire Emblem grow by two characters and there is no reason that Star Fox couldn't regain it's previous rep while gaining another. Also, I imagine most of Wolf's code will be transferred over easily which will make the project less-time consuming. From a marketing standpoint for the upcoming Star Fox Wii U game, their could be a dual release of DLC. Not necessarily in a pack, but as singles at the same time. She also offers a different moveset than any character in the game along with all of her fellow Star Fox reps.

Want: 100%
I'm not going to lie, I've wanted Krystal in since Brawl. The character for me brought the series home since Star Fox Adventures was the first game of the series that I fully played as a kid. Star Fox received the shaft in this game by losing a rep and the nerfs that occurred on the reps that stayed. I also bounce around nearly half the characters in this roster and none really stick with me like previous iterations. In terms of her moveset, she offers a wide variety and even more because her full abilities were never completely acknowledged I believe. Nintendo could make changes to the capabilities to add more interesting moves for her character.

Dixie
Prediction: 60%

Nominations: x5 Spyro (That'd be interesting to see. lol)

 

[A Distant Demon]

And yet, what happened every time a newcomer was revealed in the last two years? The fanbase exploded. Time and time again, we've seen that if a newcomer is unique and looks like a blast to play, the newcomer gains a massive following because they're unique and look like a blast to play! The dev team has likely taken notice, and we've seen how they prefer uniqueness over all else (unless you're a bonus clone, but that's a different situation).

So based on what information we know, not counting the supposed leak since it's still ambiguous, it seems likely that Wolf is the only veteran who has a good chance of returning. All the others would either feel redundant among the current roster and therefore seen as not worth paying for by anyone outside their supporters, have major hurdles that'd make adding them significantly harder and less likely to be worth the trouble (Ice Climbers and any third party character fall under here), or are getting too little fan support.

And yet that same following from the last time they were revelaed stull exists. There is a reason that vetaerans top every japanese poll and most american ones. They have fans. A lot of fans. The fanbases dont explode as much because they already did. EX mewtwo being the most wanted character in the world

And its not really a leak. Its code found in the game. the code is there. Its just a question of whether it was a very strange accident from a much older time or code for the future (much much likelier)

 

[Pacack]

Darn, missed it. Would've given Krystal 15% for being relatively popular but not overly so and requiring Sakurai to add two Star Fox character as DLC (15% want, only slightly loyal to her because she's a Rare creation). Prediction for Dixie is 45%, since the General Leaks League will rate her really high and a lot of others won't, so it'll balance out. Nominate Shovel Knight x5.

Often, colder will include stuff that happens right before results are posted.

 

[jahkzheng]

Krystal
Chance: 30% - She has an undeniably large fan base and Star Fox should definitely be allowed to have four reps if Fire Emblem can have Five. I feel that Krystal's chances are going to be dependant on how big of a role she has in Star Fox U and how many DLC characters Nintendo plans to release.
Want: 35% - I've actually never played any Star Fox game other than 64, so I'm not very familiar with her. I'd be extremely happy for her fans who are probably the most bullied fan base in the Smash community.

Dixie prediction: 36%

Nominations: Henry Flemming x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

I guessed 38% for her chance and 55% for her want. There was more people not wanting her than I thought so I'm guessing my chance prediction is still close but her want my be closer to 38% too.

Honestly, I hope it's better than that and it only seemed like I saw a lot of people not really wanting her.

 

[smileMasky]

you know when I look now at these results and compare them to back then their chances have changed quite a bit what I mean is the characters that were really populate then are now getting a more harsher rating they used to be top characters to be but now it has all changed I used to see polls for koopa and people like that but it is understandable times have change and so have opinions.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Krystal
Chance: 45% - Krystal would be the second unique Star Fox newcomer. Falco's a semi-clone, and that's fine, but Wolf and Krystal are entirely unique. Wolf just has a few similarities to Fox/Falco, whereas Krystal really wouldn't have any. The reason I have her chances lower are because if we were to get a Star Fox rep, it'd be Wolf.

Want: 100% - I'd love to see Krystal get in the game, as Star Fox surely deserves four fighters. Granted, that's the most it does deserve, but nonetheless deserves them. Having Fox, Falco, Wolf, and Krystal as playable fighter would be so much fun. She's my second most wanted DLC fighter, being right behind Wolf. It's be great if we could get both fighters revealed at E3 to gain super-ultra-mega hype for the new Star Fox game. And no, just because I want to see Wolf and Krystal the most does not mean that I'm a 'furry'.

Prediction: Dixie Kong 50%

Nomitation: Wolf x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

KRYSTAL
CHANCE: 25.01%
WANT: 38.29%​

Krystal has the sad honour of being the first character not to crack a 50% "want" rating, but I'm sure a LOT more will follow. We just finished rating one animal girl now we move on to another, please rate Dixie kong in chance and want. Also predict how Impa will do tomorrow.

 

[Aetheri]

you know when I look now at these results and compare them to back then their chances have changed quite a bit what I mean is the characters that were really populate then are now getting a more harsher rating they used to be top characters to be but now it has all changed I used to see polls for koopa and people like that but it is understandable times have change and so have opinions.

I think being dlc has something to do with it, it's one thing if they come with the whole game it's another when peopl have to pay for separate characters...When it comes to dlc people want it to be worth their while...

 

[DNeon]

Krystal

Chance: 30%

Wolf is definitely a high possibility for Sm4sh, and with 3 (albeit similar) characters the chances for another would likely be significantly delayed. That said, a new Starfox game coming out makes this one hard to predict.

Want: 5%

I dunno, just not feeling it. Hard to say why. Maybe I'm just worried about the furry vote.

Dixie Kong

Predict: 57%

I have to say that she's undeniably likely, but we'll see tomorrow.

EDIT: Damn, just missed it, but do I still get votes?

5x *concept: Advance Wars character

EDIT 2: Well, since I'm here:

Dixie Kong

Chance: 65%

Nearly made it to Brawl, DK is under represented and she's the only Kong that seems likely for it, not to mention she's a bit more relevant nowadays than K. Rool too. I definitely expect her to be announce some time in the next year or so.

Want: 50%

I dunno, DK deserves more characters, but Dixie is a bit same-y for me. But more DK characters is good? Yeah, I'm not invested, but I don't see why not.

Also same votes. Don't know who we're predicting.

 

[smileMasky]

Day seven here we go
Dixie
Chance 40%
I think K rool would get this spot other wise it's her but she really does have a good following

Want 10%
I do not really want her to be a character mostly because I only see her as a female Diddy and the only really unique thing about her IMHO is here hair theme she has I really don't know what to really be excited about her sorry but thats just me

Nomination
Django x3
Quotex2