Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ghirahilda]

Crashin' Bandicoot

Chance: 30%
Having his game coming this year, has a bunch of games, HE IS COOL. Is not a Nintendo All-Star but he IS A GAMING ALL-STAR
Also he is very requested
I just don't know how Japan thinks about him

Want: 100% for sure!
I love him! I support him! He is not my most wanted, but I really want him to show up even as DLC

Nomination: Concept: Octopath traveller character x10

 

[Troykv]

When the noms list is updated next it will be fixed.

Speaking of Noms, remember today since i ****ed up yesterday everyone today gets 5 extra noms.

Organization XIII gets 5 extra noms for Daisy
@MasterWarlord gets 5 extra noms for Paper Mario
ProfPeanut gets noms for Pichu
@Smasher 101 cut down so many people predicting 5%, and gets 5 extra noms

Wait, literally everyone or just them?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wait, literally everyone or just them?

Everyone today gets five extra noms today. Consider it a thread milestone/apology for me ****ing up.

 

[Troykv]

Everyone today gets five extra noms today. Consider it a thread milestone/apology for me ****ing up.

Okay then, so I'll edit my post to be Micaiah x7 and Celica x3

 

[Ghirahilda]

Can I ask for this thread to be sticked? It's one that have a lot of debate ongoing and there are MORE MATERIAL to debate A LOT on the future

 

[Graizen]

Crash Bandicoot
Chances: 50%
Want: 100%

One of the biggest icons of Video Games of all time.
Nintendo was able to put his 3 legendary games on Switch.
Combines with Smash Bros totally.
Everything will depend on Sakurai.
Also remember that Nintendo and Activision worked together on Skylanders a short time ago, and Crash has already appeared on Skylanders as well.

Nomination: Agumon x10

 

[Quetzal77]

Crash
Chance: 5%
Honestly, yeah it's cool the trilogy is coming to Switch and I know he's been on Nintendo systems before, but he just doesn't feel on the level of Mega Man/Sonic/Pac Man in terms of familiarity with Nintendo or "all star" factor.

Want: 10%
His games are fun but I don't really want him in Smash. If he got in I wouldn't be happy or mad.

Lyn prediction: 35%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5, Neku x2, Mipha x3,

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 25%
I'm going to bet Sakurai didn't know his games were coming to Switch when he finalized the roster. It's entirely possible the port wasn't even planned at all. Still, after Snake, Ryu, and Cloud, anything is possible, and Crash certainly has the star power.

Want: 17%
I've never played, nor do I have any interest in a Crash game, but I'm not exactly against it.

Nominate 2B x10

 

[Deleted member]

Solaire of Astora Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 5%

Arguably one of the biggest icons from the '90s yet to be playable in Smash, and unlike his purple dragon counterpart Spyro, one of the few western video game characters to enjoy immense popularity in Japan. Despite starting out as an unofficial mascot of sorts for the PS1, he's been multiplatform for over a decade and a half, and has had games on GC, Wii, GBA, DS, and more recently had a Skylanders guest appearance on Wii U and Switch (albeit it was a western exclusive). However, much of the support he seems to have gotten recently stems from the recently announced N. Sane Trilogy Switch port, and this iteration of Smash has been in development for quite awhile now. There's also the question of whether or not Sakurai would go to a western company for a playable character (though Rayman and such have gotten trophies at least), and whether or not he'd be willing to negotiate with greedy ol' Activision.

I remain skeptical for now, though with all his current support, he might have a better chance of being DLC.

Want: 100%

Him and Spyro were two of my favorite characters growing up, and he'd easily one of my most hyped third party additions. From his wacky personality and moveset potential, to having him duke it out against the likes of Mario, DK, and Sonic, among others.

Prediction: Lyn - 2.23%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[Xenigma]

Today was crazy and as a result I didn't get to vote. Oops! Very quickly because it will bother me not to say anything:

Young Link - 1% Chance, 0% Want
He is effectively obsolete thanks to Toon Link. Would require a miracle like Sakurai wanting to include literally every veteran character or a total redesign. As a biased Toon Link fan, I say leave him in the past.
Pichu - 1% Chance, 10% Want
Not obsolete in the same way, but again would require a small miracle to get in. I don't entirely oppose it just because he's been gone for two games, but it seems a strange clone choice nonetheless.

Now, just to make sure I don't miss again, the actual day:

Crash Bandicoot
Chance - 25%
This one has a very simple question: when did Sakurai find out N-Sane Trilogy was coming to Switch? There really isn't a question here of would Crash be a strong third-party candidate if he was available, because he fills a very similar niche like Sonic and Cloud before him: representing Nintendo's competition. While not quite the level of fame as Sonic, nor perhaps the level of infamy among Nintendo fans as Cloud representing Final Fantasy's departure to Sony platforms, no other character encapsulates the public battle between Playstation and N64 in the late 90s quite like Crash. To me, this is practically an inevitability now, but I just don't know if Sakurai would have known about this in time to put him in the base game. Maybe they pull a Sonic and get in him regardless, but my gut is that he's DLC, and a strong choice for it at that.
Want - 50%
Honestly, I rather dislike Crash. The only reason I rate him even this much is that the novelty of having him in Smash is difficult to ignore as a 90's kid, even if I doubt I'd find him more than a novelty.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Lyn Predictions - 16.7% Chance, 37% Want
I imagine there will be some people who are against any new Fire Emblem character, but Lyn definitely has fans, and I think there's enough of a case to be made that she ends up with a decent chance score.

 

[Opossum]

Crash Bandicoot!

Chance: 55%
For the record I'm including his odds of being DLC in this, as with all my predictions. I feel it could go either way, but I'm leaning toward yes.

Want: 100%
My most wanted third party character by far. I've wanted this guy since Brawl started allowing third party characters. The original Crash Bandicoot was one of the first video games I ever played, so Crash has a special place in my heart.

Predicting a 17% for Lyn
Nominating Celica x10

 

[DNeon]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 35%

Gaming icon, but foreign to Nintendo without the universal push of Cloud. I predicted Rayman at 40%, so I'm undercutting that since Crash is not as big on Nintendo, but not so much since he's much bigger in general. That said if the 'Nintendo console' rule is being loosened, and Nintendo were well aware during N'Sane Trilogy's development that they'd be getting it on the Switch (in a timeframe that matches no less) then this would shoot up massively IMO, but that's a lot of inside scoops to be shared internationally and interdepartmentally specifically for that to happen.

Want: 100%

He's an Icon that deserves it, and with NST being the smash hit it was I can only hope that this becomes the incentive for companies to revive their older icons in a new light. Make Crash the beacon of retro enthusiasts.

Lyndis Prediction: 50.17%

Nominations:
Andy x 9
Travis Touchdown x 1

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The Bandicoot

Chance: 20%
Want: 25%

Never really knew Crash as a kid. Of course I knew Mario and Sonic, but I didn’t really get much exposure to Crash, and I’ve really never had a PlayStation.

At least I’ve heard the name, which puts him above other 3rd parties.

I do know Crash is one of the major names bandied about in terms of a third party, but he really just doesn’t resonate with me as much as i.e. Megaman, even though I never played his games either.

Prediction for Lyn: 23.2%
Nom: Mewtwo x5, something from Skyrim x5.

 

[Johnknight1]

Young Link: 10% Chance (mostly as an alt), 30% want

Don't really care, Toon Link and Wild Link as a potential newcomer are better characters/concepts IMO. Only reason I would want Young Link is if he got like the 64 or Link style of Link but refined in Smash Switch while Toon Link and Link continued to do their own things (and maybe Wild Link comes into the mix). But like of the 4 Links in the mix, I think he's the least important and the least interesting.

Crash Bandicoot:

3% chance, 60% Want

Like him, loved Crash 2 and 3 and Crash Racing, but like all but a dozen-ish characters that could be newcomers, he doesn't really have good odds IMO ATM (in part because of just the state of this game being a huge unknown). He does have the "it" factor and is a major 3rd party character, so he definitely is in the hunt though.

Having said that, I don't really see why anyone would think he's got an amazing shot right now; I think they are jumping the gun big time. I will say there is something special about him as a candidate this time around. As time goes on, and the unknowns about this game are gone, he could get momentum, maybe even real fast (assuming he isn't outright confirmed at say E3). But until/unless we reach that point, I am waiting to jump on the "he's got a good shot" bandwagon.

Lyn Prediction: 12% chance, 55% want

Nominate: Lucina x5

 

[JamesDNaux]

Smash Bandicoot

Chance: 5%
I don't expect Crash at all, but I could still see him being the sort of surprise Sakurai would go for. Hard to put a number on it.

Want: 10%
I have no personal connection to the series and it's pretty lackluster, but his status as an icon can't be denied.

 

[StormC]

Chance: 70%

I'm splitting the difference on whether or not I think he would be in the base game (50%) or DLC (90%). Crash is basically the only third party icon left on the level of guys like Cloud and Ryu (at least one that would be, ahem, realizable in Smash). His original trilogy was popular in Japan and I wouldn't rule out the N. Sane trilogy being announced at E3 2016 putting him on the radar that early. Cloud got in a few months after the FF7 remake was revealed. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Crash will Smash.

Want: 45%

I didn't really grow up on the games (I played some of Warped at a friend's for a while), but I played them later as an adult, and I liked them, but didn't love them. It would be hard to deny the crazy appeal of seeing Crash alongside Mario, Sonic, and Cloud, though. I don't know if Crash would be the most interesting fighter, but I wouldn't mind his inclusion at all.

 

[wildvine47]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 65% - With so few options left for big hype bomb third parties, landing the rights to get Crash in Smash (hehe) would be a hype slam dunk. I think it's too late for Crash to make the base roster - that 3rd party hype will probably belong to the likes of Rayman and Bomberman (and in my dreams Banjo-Kazooie and Scorpion), but he seems like the perfect hype bomb choice for DLC, which is why I'm giving him such a high score. I don't know whether or not the rules allow DLC to be taken into account or if this is just base roster. With DLC in mind though, he seems like a no-brainer. One of the most iconic gaming characters not yet in the game, moveset potential galore, an important part of Nintendo's history and rivalries, and with a big chunky trilogy of titles on the Switch to cross-promote. All it'd take is for Activision or Nintendo to make the first move. Of course, he is a third party, so there's tons of things that could go awry, but I think he's definitely going to be at least attempted, and I find it hard to believe either side would turn down the opportunity.

Want: 90% - Hell yeah I want Crash in Smash. Massive third party franchise that's beloved to this day and that helped shape Nintendo in the early console war days. His series is stronger than ever, with there no doubt being a new game after the success of Trilogy, likely built on the same engine. He might not be as big as say, Sonic or Mario, but he's certainly up there. Plus, who doesn't want to see what happened in the aftermath of this commercial:

If they parodied this for Crash's announcement trailer, I'd lose my flippin mind.

Lyn Prediction: 23.45% - If any FE character has a shot, it's her due to popularity, relevance, and her consistent-yet-upgradable AT role. That said, I think the general consensus is that FE will be staying unchanged next game. I hope so at least.

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 10

 

[Starcutter]

Crash Bandicoot: 35%
Beleive it or not, this is actually a high score for a third party imo. This is basically me saying that it's probably going to happen if we get lucky.

Want: 60%
I'm not AGAINST him, but I don't really want him in either. It's 60% because I still think he would be a cool addition to the cast, just that I would have no attatchment to him since I've only really played some of the GBA games (Which, aside from Purple, were generally pretty good! The guys who made the N-sane trilogy made them, check them out!)

Lyn prediction: 38.7%

Nominations

EDIT: I JUST NOTICED ISABELLE ONLY HAS ONE NOMINATION. IMMA FIX THIS.
Isabelle (Animal Crossing) x10

Edited out old nominations:

Spoiler

Snip & Clip x5

BONUS DEAL!!!!!!!!! *price is right theme plays*
Rick the Hamster (Kirby) x5

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 20%

His chances of being in the base roster is as likely as winning the next Death Battle. Low. UNLESS Sakurai was aware of the N Sane Trilogy and its success, then Crash had missed his boat for Smash. I won't lie that he is a big third party, but it's likely not enough to help him.

Want: 85%

However he IS a big part of my childhood and I would love this furry bloke in Smash. Please no Mind over Mutant/Crash of the Titans references....

Crash prediction: 34%

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 40%
He's a big name, he's the face of the rivalry between Nintendo and Sony, and he's got moveset potential. It could happen, but I just don't believe he will be so a score under 50 sounds right.
Want: 0%
I like his series but the only 3rd party I want is Banjo & Kazooie.

Since I actually won this time
noms: Tethu X15

 

[Ura]

WHOA!!!

Chance: 25%

Even before the N-Sane Trilogy, I always figured there was a chance Crash could make it in Smash Bros. He's a huge name in gaming and one of the very few third parties to do well in Japan (selling millions of units there). He would also complete the the Nintendo-Sega-Sony trio of Mario, Sonic, and himself. That being said I see him as a DLC inclusion and not a base roster one.

Want: 100%

My most wanted third party hands down. I got in to the Crash series in 2007 through Twinsanity and i've loved the series since (well other than the 7th gen ones but you get my point lol). His moveset would translate very well in a Smash setting as shown in Smash Bros Crusade.

Prediction: Lyndis

Chance: 27%
Want: 43%

Nominations

Andy X 10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 70% (with DLC in mind)

If Sakurai wanted to continue adding gaming icons Crash would probably be high on the priority list.

Want: 75%

The only Crash game I played was the second Titans game (I'm sorry) but I do plan to pick up N-Sane trilogy on Switch later. Plus it would be funny to see how Sony fans would react to it.

Predictions: FE girl 29.49%

Nominations: Hades x10

 

[Ura]

Lol.

 

[slambros]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 20%
There's no way Activision doesn't at least consider trying this.

Want: 45%
Eh. I grew up Crash, but I so think his style is pretty zany in a way that separates him from the Smash cast. It's hard to describe. But my personal history with the franchise is enough to overlook that at least a little.

Predictions for Lyn:
Chance: 28.13%

Nominations:
Dillon x5
Shulk x5

 

[a smart guy]

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 25% There's some recency bias in this thread. Prior to the N-Sane trilogy, Crash Bandicoot was a dead franchise, with only an appearance in Skylanders keeping him in the mainstream. Yes, Sakurai does like doing retro characters, but it is a point against Crash. He's also from the West, which can be an obstacle when getting into Smash.

Want: 70% However, I would like Crash in the game. I played one of his games on the GBA, and really enjoyed it. Plus, the history of him being Sony's mascot vs. Mario and Sonic would be amazing to see play out. He's not my most wanted newcomer, but I would enjoy seeing him if he made it in.

Predictions: Lyn 18%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x10

 

[WestyStigga]

Chance: 5%

I don't think he's as likely as the general consensus sees him as. Nintendo doesn't go for foreign created characters (Diddy Kong being the only one) let alone a 3rd party foreign character. He was fairly big back in the day lost his touch and became resurrected? For lack of a better term.

Want: 0%

Never cared for him. Let's focus on 1st party.

Predictions for Lyn: 5%

Nominations:
x5 for who ever on the list, I don't care.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance - 20%

He's a western IP, so his chances are already in the gutter. However, I think Crash Bandicoot has at least two saving graces for him: his worldwide popularity and his iconic-ness as the mascot of the PlayStation.

As far as I've heard, he is (or at least, was) a huge deal in Japan during the original PSX days, so Japan isn't completely unaware of him like they are for pretty much every other western IP. He also has the benefit of representing a huge console war: being Nintendo vs. Sony during the late 90s / early 00s. It certainly isn't as iconic of a war as Nintendo vs. SEGA, but it's still very iconic none the less. I've always felt like 3rd parties in Smash should have something to do with Nintendo, and Crash certainly has that going for him, more so than any other 3rd party not already in Smash, I'd say.

Really, I'd just say it depends on how soon the Switch port of N. Sane Trilogy has been known about. I feel like it probably missed the Smash 5 mark, but you never know.

Want - 30%

I'm REALLY not a fan of the idea of having a lot of third parties in Smash, but if there WERE to be a western third party in Smash 5, I feel like Crash would be one of the better picks. I'd prefer Banjo instead, but I'd still take Crash over some random third party or indie character any day.

Anyway, he's an ok guy. Not a huge fan of his original three platformers, they're ok, but nothing spectacular.

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x10 (we all get 10 today, right? I'm still just stealing nominations from people who posted above me)

Lyn tomorrow, oh boy! Time for me to write up another bajillion paragraphs about Fire Emblem. Let's hope I don't tear into her guts as much as I did Chrom.

 

[Organization XIII]

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x10 (we all get 10 today, right? I'm still just stealing nominations from people who posted above me)

We do. Most people probably didn't read that post.

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

cresh

Chance: 20%
He's an gaming icon sort of maybe

Want: 30%
I played one of the Crash GBA games and it was pretty cool

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x6
Dragonite x4

 

[ProfPeanut]

Crash Bandicoot


Chances: 45%
If Cloud can get added with absolutely zero warning or precedent, then what really keeps Crash Bandicoot out of the range of possibility? Being born in the West?

Yes, third-party slots are few and precious, and easier to secure if the company they're asking is Japanese. But I just don't think there's really any relevant obstacles that'd dissuade a Crash inclusion barring whether Nintendo goes for him or not. If they do, Activision will wonder why Nintendo wants to fund Crash Bandicoot exposure for the next two years, and will let them do it anyway. If they don't, then that's their choice not to to include someone they might find too Western to seriously consider.

Despite all this, Crash measured by his potential alone has so much going for him that he'd have been in Smash 64 if he was born as a Nintendo property. He has the games, the movepool, and the undeniable influence on the history of the industry, with enough fame that anyone remotely aware of the PS1 era knows who he is. But all he can do from where he stands is hope Nintendo actually asks for him - or hope they don't hold grudges about him advertising his games right in front of their headquarters.

Want: 84%
I doubt I could think of a bigger 3rd-party reveal if I tried. There may be more relevant or more doable characters elsewhere, but none of them would excite me nearly as much.


Predictions
Lyn: 13%

Nominations
Arle Nadja 15x

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lol.

This is why ya dont edit op at midnight. Fixed.

 

[Fane]

Crash Bandicoot

Chances: 5%
Want: 0%

Chances Reasoning: He's not as iconic or as popular as some would think and him getting games on Switch means nothing towards his chances considering Cloud hasn't made a very notable appearance on Nintendo consoles. He'd also be a rather lackluster third party addition compared to another Sonic rep or even Rayman. That's not to say he doesn't have a chance, but that chance is VERY small.

Want Reasoning: I really have disliked third party additions since Brawl. Sonic, Pac-Man, and Megaman are very excusable and worthy additions due to being some of the most iconic video game characters, but I had to grit my teeth when Cloud, Ryu, and Bayonetta were revealed.(Yes, I know Street Fighter and Final Fantasy are among the most popular video game franchises) Add that onto the fact that I just generally dislike Crash Bandicoot, I really don't want to see him in Smash.

Predictions:
Lyn: 13.6%

Nominations:
Poipole 4x
Petey Piranha 2x
Azura 2x
Skull Kid 2x

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Crash for smash?

Chances: 50%
Want: 50%

He just seems so fitting to me, joining with the other gaming icons. Maybe his ports are too new but they were a shocker. Who would expect them to even get to the Switch? He’s an icon and now that he’s eligible I can totally see him making it in. Perhaps not in the base game, but if they do DLC he’s definitely a strong contender.

Waluigi x9
Kamek x1

 

[ZealousGamer]

Awww man! I missed A day! I was going to rate Young Link.... Well, I'll just state for the record I'd really like Young Link back but this time using the Deku, Goron & Zora Masks. (even if it isn't likely)

Now, on to Crash Bandicoot!

Chances 45%: I'm uncertain how likely he is but I don't believe him getting a port of a trilogy of old games gives him huge credentials. I do know he has been on Nintendo consoles before but those were mostly multi platform titles. He does however, have a lot of recent demand to be in Smash so, who knows?

Want 5%: I really don't think the former mascot for Playstation deserves to be in Smash Bros. At least not yet. Let Crash be in Playstation Allstars 2 (I'm hopeful we'll get it one day). It was unfair that Crash wasn't in Battle Royal and Cloud got into Smash.

However, a humorist thought that if Cloud returns and we do get Crash it could be kind of Nintendo vs Playstation with Mario and Link vs Crash and Cloud.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 10%

Despite having decent credentials, Crash has so many other big names to compete with that I don't feel comfortable giving him a score higher than this. Really don't have much more to say then that, I'm not very familiar with Crash.

Want: 50%

Someday I will play his games, but until that day, I remain indifferent.

Prediction for Lyn: 18%

Nominating Waluigi x5

 

[ikke471]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 20%

He's certainly got a shot but I don't think he's very likely

Want: 60%

He'd be pretty cool but I don't reallllllllly want him that bad

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 25%
I'm in the camp that thinks it's too late for him to be in the base game and that he could very welll be added as DLC.

Want: 95%
I still haven't played much of Crash (I've played a bit of the first one on my friend's PS4, the Switch version will be the first Switch game I buy alongside Kirby), but man would it be awesome to see him fight Sonic and Mario. I also like his zany personality and his moveset seems like it would be pretty interesting. Also 3rd parties are typically some of the best additions to the Smash roster imo.
Lack of personal attachment is the only reasosn why I'm not giving him a 100%.

Decidueye x10

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 60%
I'd say he's got a pretty decent chance. He's enjoyed great success with the N.Sanity Trilogy that brought him back into the limelight again, and it's coming to the Nintendo Switch despite having PS4 exclusivity for the first year, and he's in the same boat as Cloud - more affiliated with Sony than Nintendo, he's definitely been on Nintendo platforms before, and one of the biggest icons of gaming back in the day.


Want: 65%
Although Crash wasn't a big influence on me (because my PS1 childhood was formed by a no-save-run of FFVII - and no surprise who ended up giving me the most hype when they were confirmed as Sm4sh DLC), I'm not opposed to the idea of Crash joining. I think it'd be quite the sight to behold - Mario, Sonic, Pac-Man, Mega Man, Cloud, Bayonetta and Crash all in one game. Plus, CrashBoards is inevitable.

Lyndis Prediction: 31%
(Braces self for the likely *LOL GO BURN IN HELL, FIRE EMBLEM! DONKEY KONG IS SUPREME!* responses... Sigh

Edit: Though realistically, it probably won't be this bad... I hope... )
Nominate: Marx X5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 25%

Want: 25%

Lyn prediction: 50%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x5

Funky Kong x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Crash

Chance: 60%

A more well-known Third-party choice, but does he have ths same level of recognizability and impact on the industry as Cloud and FF7?

Want: 30%

Nominations: Arle Nadja x5