Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Deleted member]

XD
The first page of this thread is so funny, everybody saying that Bowser Jr. is practically a shoo-in and the most likely Mario character.

To be fair, he was the most likely Mario character people could think of during that time. He's popular, gets a decent amount of requests, and is prominent within the Mario series. I don't think that many people even expected Rosalina to get that 5th slot.

 

[Groose]

I have no time or energy today. If someone wants to tally the noms and calculate the scores for me, I will edit them in and start the next day, but I can't update on my own. I'll be peaking back in about two hours; if I have the stuff to edit in for me, I'll update away; if not, I'll handle it myself for tomorrow.

I'm hoping tomorrow I'll be able to resume normal updating.

 

[Chandeelure]

To be fair, he was the most likely Mario character people could think of during that time. He's popular, gets a decent amount of requests, and is prominent within the Mario series. I don't think that many people even expected Rosalina to get that 5th slot.

Yeah , you are right but is still funny.

And I'm also sure this situation will happen again with another franchise XD

 

[Deleted member]

I have no time or energy today. If someone wants to tally the noms and calculate the scores for me, I will edit them in and start the next day, but I can't update on my own. I'll be peaking back in about two hours; if I have the stuff to edit in for me, I'll update away; if not, I'll handle it myself for tomorrow.

I'm hoping tomorrow I'll be able to resume normal updating.

I'll calculate the current scores.
You guys don't think that Jimmy T. stands much of a chance as his current chance is 5.34%. Not only that, but his Smooth Moves are either impressing you or not as his current want is 38.31%.

Sheik so far has a bit of an interesting case. You guys believe that the Phantom doesn't really hurt her chances too much or believe that it is a minor dent. Her current chance is 92.23%. Most of you are OK with her, but you don't really want her as much as others. Her current want is 79.02%. For references sake, her old chance was 93.57% and her old want was 84.53%.

 

[YoshiandToad]

I can't wait for Rhythm Heaven to get low want scores and abysmal chance scores.
Again.

But people LOVE Wrestler. So expect a higher want at least.

Poor Karate Joe hasn't achieved the meme like status of Wrestler unfortunately.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

But people LOVE Wrestler. So expect a higher want at least.

Poor Karate Joe hasn't achieved the meme like status of Wrestler unfortunately.

Karate Joe just ain't funny.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Karate Joe just ain't funny.

He's a honed, disciplined martial artist. He wouldn't be caught dead pursuing lofty pursuits like Posing For The Fans and flexing his muscles to impress ladies.

 

[Groose]

@Brawler610 Thanks. Now, if anyone can do noms for me, I'll update things.

EDIT: I'll update the day now based off of the current noms and Brawler's calculations, and I'll make revisions tomorrow if necessary.

Day Over

Return of... Brawler610​

 

[Groose]

Jimmy T. (WarioWare)
5.34% chance
38.31% want

Sheik (Legend if Zelda)
92.23% chance (old: 93.57%)
79.02% want. (old: 84.57%)

Today:
Please rate Rhythm Wrestler in chance and want.
Please rate the chance of having a Pokemon Assist Trophy in chance and want.
Please predict how Nightmare from Soul Calibur will do.

Nom winners to be announced later. Please understand that the noms have not yet been tallied, so we're just rating what was second place yesterday. To pull an Iwata: please understand. It was do it this way or wait until tomorrow to update.

 

[colder_than_ice]

@Brawler610 Thanks. Now, if anyone can do noms for me, I'll update things.

Nominations:
Harry x5 (82 total)
Panther x5 (40 total)
Isa Jo x5 (59 total)
Mewtwo x5 (64 total)
Palutena x20 (78 total)
Gyromite stage x5 (40 total)
Athena Cykes x5 (5 total?)
Non-playable Hanafuda representation x3 (13 total)
Diskun x2 (47 total)
Playable Bosses x5 (15 total)
Epic Yarn stage x5 (45 total)
Yarne and Owain team x10 (105 total)
Reyn x5 (45 total)
Spear user x5 (73 total)
Leon x5 (40 total)
Rhythm Heaven stage x5 (6 total)
Promoted Assist trophies x10 (35 total)
Alexandra Rovias x3 (19 total)
Black Mage x2 (83 total)
Pokemon Trainer x5 (27 total)
Ridley x3 (23 total)
Galacta Knight x2 (2 total)
Pokemon assist trophy x8 (84 total)
Chef Kawasaki x5 (10 total) (from Kirby, Chef not chief)
Zelda newcomer x5 (15 total)
Tetris stage x10 (65 total)
Saki x5 (70 total)
Plasm Wraith x5 (40 total)
Bowser Land x5 (20 total)
Kunio-kun Alex x5 (50 total)
Master Hand playable x5 (42 total)
Porky Mince x5 (5 total?)
Two retro characters x5 (15 total)
Protoman x5 (5 total?)
Young Link x5 (15 total)
Takamaru x5 (30 total)
Dark Samus x4 (11 total)
Bowser jr x1 (8 total)
Pokemon trainer's pokemon without said trainer x5 (45 total)
Stork x3 (45 total)
Grovyle x2 (40 total)
Gangplank Galleon x2 (26 total)
F-zero newcomer x5 (16 total)

These are the nominations, give me about 30 minutes to add up the totals

Edit: Done. If there's a ? after the total, it means that I couldn't find them on the nominations list. Either it was the first time they were nominated or I missed them on the list.

 

[Groose]

Nominations:
Harry x5
Panther x5
Isa Jo x5
Mewtwo x5
Palutena x20
Gyromite stage x5
Athena Cykes x5
Non-playable Hanafuda representation x3
Diskun x2
Playable Bosses x5
Epic Yarn stage x5
Yarne and Owain team x10
Reyn x5
Spear user x5
Leon x5
Rhythm Heaven stage x5
Promoted Assist trophies x10
Alexandra Rovias x3
Black Mage x2
Pokemon Trainer x5
Ridley x3
Galacta Knight x2
Pokemon assist trophy x8
Chef Kawasaki x5
Zelda newcomer x5
Tetris stage x10
Saki x5
Plasm Wraith x5
Bowser Land x5
Kunio-kun Alex x5
Master Hand playable x5
Porky Mince x5
Two retro characters x5
Protoman x5
Young Link x5
Takamaru x5
Dark Samus x4
Bowser jr x1
Pokemon trainer's pokemon without said trainer x5
Stork x3
Grovyle x2
Gangplank Galleon x2
F-zero newcomer x5

These are the nominations, give me about 30 minutes to add up the totals

Thanks for the help. I can take it from there:'f changes will go in effect for tomorrow. This will not affect the day I just started.

 

[Smasher 101]

I can check to see who won extra noms if you'd like.

Edit: Or wait, did you want to do it tomorrow after making any necessary revisions?

Edit, the sequel:

Wrestler's chances: 5% - Same as the last RH thing we rated.
Want: 50% - Same as the last RH thing we rated.

Pokemon assist trophy: 3% - I just don't see one happening.
Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Nightmare prediction: 0.2%

Mewtwo x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Nom winners to be announced later.

eh, got bored so I did it for you,
the people who got close too 5.34 is captain toad at 5% but was beaten by TCT phantom at 5.5% was about to call him a winner, before I ran acrose this post

Jimmy T. - 5.37%
uh. . . random number time?

the winner is me (ironically enough)
I won by just missing it by 0.03% grats me

 

[NickerBocker]

Rhythm Wrastle
Chance: 4%
Want: 50%

Im pretty indifferent to new series additions, and he seems worthy enough.

Pokemon assist trophy
Chance: 2%
Want: 0%

This is what pokeballs are for.

Nightmare: 0.05%

Nominations :
Pokemon Trainer x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Wrestler X

Chance - 0.5% - Almost all of that would be due to be how meme-filled the Wrestler is. I'd place more stock in another charater from the same series, and we're not likely to get that in the first place. Getting in would be something of a miracle.

Want - 45% - Eh. Not that bad, but I can't seem to image anyone besides Karate Joe working out for the series. The best option would be a sort of composite character using animations from the many mini-games, and Joe seems to be the go-to guy for me.


Pokémon Assist Trophy

Chance - 0% - While you could argue that it makes little sense for such an influential series to get no Assist Trophy, I consider that already has the Pokéball for that. As many ideas involving a Pokémon Assist Trophy just take advantage of Pokéballs anyway, it feels very redundant.

Want - 50% - Eh. Don't care in the slightest.


Nightmare Prediction - 0.15% - He's a character from a not well known series, that is third party, and is also from a Fighting Game. He's doomed.

Nominations
Epic Yarn Stage X5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Wrestler Likelihood: 7%
Want: 100%

Pokemon Assist Likelihood: 0%
Want: 30%

Nightmare: 0.25%

Rhythm Heaven Stage x5

 

[Pacack]

Nominations:
Harry x5 (82 total)
Panther x5 (40 total)
Isa Jo x5 (59 total)
Mewtwo x5 (64 total)
Palutena x20 (78 total)
Gyromite stage x5 (40 total)
Athena Cykes x5 (5 total?)
Non-playable Hanafuda representation x3 (3 total?)
Diskun x2 (47 total)
Playable Bosses x5 (15 total)
Epic Yarn stage x5 (45 total)
Yarne and Owain team x10 (105 total)
Reyn x5 (45 total)
Spear user x5 (73 total)
Leon x5 (40 total)
Rhythm Heaven stage x5 (6 total)
Promoted Assist trophies x10 (35 total)
Alexandra Rovias x3 (19 total)
Black Mage x2 (83 total)
Pokemon Trainer x5 (27 total)
Ridley x3 (23 total)
Galacta Knight x2 (2 total)
Pokemon assist trophy x8 (84 total)
Chef Kawasaki x5 (10 total) (from Kirby, Chef not chief)
Zelda newcomer x5 (15 total)
Tetris stage x10 (65 total)
Saki x5 (70 total)
Plasm Wraith x5 (40 total)
Bowser Land x5 (20 total)
Kunio-kun Alex x5 (50 total)
Master Hand playable x5 (42 total)
Porky Mince x5 (5 total?)
Two retro characters x5 (15 total)
Protoman x5 (5 total?)
Young Link x5 (15 total)
Takamaru x5 (30 total)
Dark Samus x4 (11 total)
Bowser jr x1 (8 total)
Pokemon trainer's pokemon without said trainer x5 (45 total)
Stork x3 (45 total)
Grovyle x2 (40 total)
Gangplank Galleon x2 (26 total)
F-zero newcomer x5 (16 total)

These are the nominations, give me about 30 minutes to add up the totals

Edit: Done. If there's a ? after the total, it means that I couldn't find them on the nominations list. Either it was the first time they were nominated or I missed them on the list.

Thanks for the help. I can take it from there:'f changes will go in effect for tomorrow. This will not affect the day I just started.

There is an error here. I nominated Non-Character Hanafuda Representation when I got extra noms and today, so that brings the total to 13. Here are my posts for reference.

Spoiler

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

wrestler: 1%
Want: 75%
PokeAssist: Double 0s
Nightmare: .1%
Yarne and Owain x 5.

 

[colder_than_ice]

There is an error here. I nominated Non-Character Hanafuda Representation when I got extra noms and today, so that brings the total to 13. Here are my posts for reference.

Spoiler

Thank you for pointing that out. I've edited the nomination count.

 

[Deleted member]

@Brawler610 Thanks

You're welcome, Groose! Should anything like this happen again, I'll be more than glad to calculate the scores for you!

Nominations:
Young Link x5

Someone finally nominates Young Link! Once I'm done with Reyn, I'll help you. It's time to lay Young Link to rest and be done with the veterans.

Rhythm Wrestler and Pokemon Assist Trophy have been added to the Directory.

Rhythm Wrestler
Chance: Abstain
I dunno anything about Rhythm Heaven so…
Want: 0%
Eh.

Pokemon Assist Trophy
Chance: 0%

EDIT: OK. There are also trainers, but I doubt that they would be Assist Trophies…
Want: 0%
Can't want something that I technically can't have.
EDIT: Come to think of it, Professor Oak could be interesting. Though, I am not gonna lose sleep if we don't get a Pokemon Assist Trophy.

Nightmare Prediction: .20%
To be honest, I was expecting to rate Nightmare next. I was thinking that Groose would use his nominations on Nightmare so that we wouldn't rate the Yarne and Owain Tag Team next. But I digress.
Nightmare seems a bit too much for Smash to handle. Also, seeing as how he originates from a fighting game like Ryu and has to deal with Pac-Man, I can't see Nightmare get high scores.

Nominations: The Legend of Xenoblade: Ocarina of Reyn Time 5x

 

[Chandeelure]

-Wrestler:
Chances:1%
Want:15%

-Pokemon AT:
Chances:0%
Want:0%

-Nightmare prediction:0%

-Nomination:Saki X5

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Wrestler

Chance: 8%

Want- 100%

Pokémon Assist Trophy

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Nightmare Prediction

.01%

Nominations

Plasm Wraith x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Rhythm wrestler
Chance: 0% - A character who's only purpose is to be interviewed.
Want: 0%
Me: I don't want Rhythm wrestler in SSB4
Reporter: Wubbadubbadubba is that true?
Me: Yes.

Pokemon Assist trophy
Chance: 5% - We already have pokeballs for summoning Pokemon. It is possible that Assist trophies could be used to summon a Human character from Pokemon, but then what would they do? Throw pokeballs?
Want: 25% - I'm not sure how it would work, but there are a few human characters from Pokemon that I would like to see.

Nightmare prediction: 0.13%

Nominations: Gyromite stage x5

 

[Pacack]

Thank you for pointing that out. I've edited the nomination count.

Thanks! Just didn't want my extra noms to go to waste.

Rating:

Rhythm Wrestler:

Chance: 4.34%
I honestly think there's less than a 15% chance of us getting a Rhythm Haven representative at all, and there's some serious competition in the series in the form of Rhythm Girl, Karate Joe, and the many others in the series. I'd rank the Wrestler the second most likely representative for Rhythm Haven, with the top three candidates being fairly equally likely. I would rank the Rhythm Girl first, the Wrestler second, and Karate Joe third. I'd break down the chances like this:

Rhythm Girl: 4.66%
Rhythm Wrestler: 4.34%
Karate Joe: 4%
Monkey: 1.16%
Other: 0.84%

Want: 33%
Largely indifferent, but he'd be interesting as a grappler, as we don't have that archetype in Smash yet. However, I think the Rhythm Girl is definitely a better representative of the franchise as a whole, so she would take the priority for me. He'd be my go-to second rep, though, since Karate Joe's a little bit bland.

Pokemon Assist Trophy:

Chance: .67%
Only reason to have it would be for a Ranger, Professor, or some other NPC. And I'm not sure if any of them could work. It's certainly at least possible, but it's not likely by any means.

Want: 15%
Eh. It's okay, I guess.

Nightmare Prediction: .24%
Ryu's score reduced by a bit, since Ryu's obviously more recognizable and "legendary" than Nightmare.

Noms:
Non-Character Hanafuda Representation x3
Diskun x2

 

[Xenigma]

Rhythm Wrestler - 5%
To be honest, I don't know exactly how prevalent the Wrestler is within the Rhythm Heaven games, but if Sakurai actually wants to include a Rhythm Heaven character, Wrestler is about as plausible an option as Karate Joe is. I think it is far more likely the franchise is represented by an assist trophy, but I don't think there's enough reason to believe it getting a character is impossible either, so like Joe he'll get a 5%.
Want - 25% - Much like Joe, I don't really want a Rhythm Heaven character, but I suppose Wrestler could be interesting enough.

Pokemon Assist Trophy - 0%
This is what Pokeballs are for? They're a staple item of Smash since the original, and I don't think they're about to change that in any way that would require a Pokemon character as an AT.
Want - 0% - I don't see the point.

Nightmare Prediction - 0.15%
Let's see, Ryu got a...0.29? Really? Even though he's disconfirmed? Well, I guess I'll predict half of that for the less famous Soul Calibur character who is similarly disconfirmed.

Nominations
Young Link x5 (I can't believe we never rated him...)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wrestler
20% Chance
Rhythm Heaven is truly a Nintendo blockbuster, and wrestler is the best bet for a rep via popularity. However, one must wonder how a Rhythm Heaven character would work.
100% Want
Its just too funny. While he is not my serious most wanted character, I can imagine the fun of having him in.
Pokemon AT
0% all around.
ITs called a PokeBall

Noms go to Palutena x5

Nightmare .99%

 

[Starcutter]

RW: 4%
Want: 75% wubadub issat true? yup.

Pokemon assist trophy: 25%

HECK YEAH
(he could stun people by taking a picture of them. or throw apples at them)

Want 100%

Nightmare moon 0.1%

Noms:
Stork x2
Grovyle x3

 

[FalKoopa]

Rhythm Heaven Wrestler:
Likelihood: 5%
I honestly doubt that RH is getting a character this time.

Want: 5%
Eh. I only like his for his memes. As a fighter, not really.

Pokémon Assist Trophy:
Likelihood: 2%
I don't think it's impossible, just really unlikely.

Want: 100%
HECK YEAH!

Nightmare: Who?
0.1%

Promoted AT X 5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Wrestler: 1.35%
No more important than any other Rhythm Heaven guy, in all honesty.

Want: 15%
I'd like to see how he'd fight.

Pokemon AT: 9.5%
Probably a Pokemon Ranger, if anything.

Want: 30%
Pokemon Ranger was the first DS game I owned, and I enjoyed it immensely (except for that volcano level).

Nightmare prediction: 0.13%

Nominate:
Marina x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Rhythm Wrestler: 4%
Want: 50%

Pokemon Assist Trophies: 0.9%
Want: 5% HECK NO!!!

Nightmare: 0.13%

x5 Leon

 

[Starbound]

Wrestler: 3%
Meme status doesn't get you into Smash Bros.

Want: 40%
New series are always cool, but I'm really indifferent to Wrestler because of the meme status

Double Zero for Pokemon Assist Trophy

5x nomz Athena Cykes

 

[PK_Wonder]

Wrestler - 0%
Pokemon AT - 1.5%

predict - 0.05%

nominate Alexandra Roivas x5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Wrestler:

Another no chance rhythm heaven character, yay!

Chance: 0%
Marshal or Rhythm Girl.

Want: 0%
Or bust.


Pokémon AT:
3 options
Professor Sycamore/Oak
Pokémon Ranger
Pokémon Photographer

Ranger's it a passable shot, Professors would be quick to make, and snap dude would be fan baiting. All of these make sense.

Chance:11%
Ranger 7%. Professors 3%. Photo 1%.

Want: 45%
Not hyping, not necessary, but would be cool.


HERO OF LIGHT*5

 

[loganhogan]

Wrestler 10% chance 70% Want
RH great but I see it more AT represented. However if one got in this guy is one the better fit.

Pokemon AT 5% Chance 65% want
Would be funny to see Oak as an AT but I don't think its too likely.

x5 Isa Jo

predict .9%

 

[Aqua Rock X]

RHYTHM WRESTLER

Chance: 0.10% - Would make WFT blush.

Want: 10% - He might be cool but Naahhhhh.

POKEMON ASSIST TROPHY

Chance: 1% - I highly doubt it.

Want: 10% - We already have pokeballs. And even if you say it would summon a Pokemon character, it seems a bit redundant to summon a character to throw a pokeball when you could just throw a pokeball yourself.

Although it wouldn't be as farfetch'd a concept if, say, you summoned a Gym Leader who then proceeds to transform the stage into his/her gym while unloading his/her entire pokemon roster into your opponent's face and attacking directly. Like Crasher Wake would turn Battlefield into his personal pool, destroy opponents with his aquatic pokemon, and finally piledrive them into his aquatic abyss as opposed to a normal pokeball summon like Piplup who would just water slide to his doom. But that would be too much programming for something not needed...

Nightmare Prediction: .12% - Keep dreaming...

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5

 

[Deleted member]

Although it wouldn't be as farfetch'd a concept

I see what you did there. That was a bit Onix-pected.

This thread gets the honor of my 2000th post!

 

[YoshiandToad]

I see what you did there. That was a bit Onyx-pected.

This thread gets the honor of my 2000th post!

You mean Onix-pected. You Muk-ed up.

Rhythm Wrestler:

Chance: 4%
Screams Assist Trophy to me honestly. Pose for the Fans seems like an idea for a TIME FREEZE/TAUNT inducing mechanic.

Want: as an AT: 100% (WHOA, YOU GO BIG GUY!)
as a playable: 25% (Eh?)

See, the problem I have with Rhythm Heaven Wrestler is a lot of the suggestions for him are more based around wrestling than the rhythm part of his name. Hell, I desperately want a stage or an AT for Rhythm Heaven, but I can't get behind any Rhythm Heaven rep UNLESS it is rhythm based.

With Villager playing like how you play Animal Crossing, Megaman playing exactly like he does in his games and Rosalina taking abilities directly from her debut game, any less than a rhythm based moveset will feel horribly underwhelming...but I'm not sure it can actually work.

Concept time!

Pokemon AT.

Chance: 3%
Unlikely sadly.

Want: 100%
"BUT POKEBALLZ"

Okay, SHUT UP a sec. There are trainers in Pokemon that have special skills that could easily fill an AT slot:

Sabrina, the gym leader of Saffron City, has the unique ability within the anime to turn people into dolls. Dolls. Imagine everyone poofing into plush versions of themselves briefly whilst the summoner knocks the stuffing(heh) out of them. Bonus points if they turn into Banettes.

It's awesome.

Snap/Todd is another fine choice as someone has previously talked about.

One of the professors seem like another possible choice. They could merely summon three pokeballs containing three of the starters releasing a miniature version of "TRIPLE FINISH".

Do I even need to talk about N with Zekrom/Reshiram?

There's some decent possibilities that'd I'd love to see, I just can't see it happening.

Nightmare prediction: 0.09%
Yeah...this isn't the Namco rep that's getting in.

Nominations: Meowth X 5

 

[Deleted member]

You mean Onix-pected. You Muk-ed up.

Oh… yeah… my bad. I'm gonna Raichu a letter saying that I'm sorry.
*goes into a corner of shame*

OK. Enough PokePuns!

 

[YoshiandToad]

Oh… yeah… my bad. I'm gonna Raichu a letter saying that I'm sorry.
*goes into a corner of shame*

OK. Enough PokePuns!

Aww come on Brawler; there's no need to be so Goomy about this.

Just Bisharp-er next time, okay?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Wrestler Chance: 15% I think he has a good chance of being in, but his competitors Marshal and Karate Joe might prevent him from being in.
Wrestler Want: 90%
Pokemon AT Chance: 3% Seems rather awkward to rate this, since I think they will already have done the role of Pokemon with Pokeballs.
Pokemon AT Want: 50% Eh, I'm indifferent.
Nightmare prediction: 0.34% Urgh..
Nominations:
x5 Harry