Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Morbi]

Sheik's Chance: 95%
Sheik's Want: 90%

Wrestler Prediction: 100%

 

[Xenigma]

I realize I have no idea who to nominate at this point, so let's go ahead and get Yarne and Owain day over with.

Jimmy T. - 0%
I gave Mona a 0% a few days ago as I believe that if Ashley is the most popular WarioWare character and if she's been disconfirmed, that's a pretty clear indication from Sakurai that only Wario will be appearing to rep his own franchise. Jimmy is no exception to this rule, so I see no reason to believe he has any chance at this point.
Want - 0% - I don't want a WarioWare character, and even if we had to get one, I wouldn't want it to be Jimmy T.

Sheik - 80%
So I've been interested in this rerate for a while thanks to Zelda's reveal, and while her being revealed without Sheik isn't terribly surprising considering how Brawl reveals went, her being revealed with what appears to be a new move in the Phantom does raise some reasonable doubt, enough that she can no longer be considered a sure thing. After all, if Zelda's moveset has been changed, it's entirely possible she no longer transforms into Sheik, and if Sheik is no longer directly tied to Zelda, there's the possibility she is replaced by Impa or cut entirely. Her immense popularity is likely to keep her safe, and the Phantom could simply be Sakurai trying to troll Sheik fans (just as he's been teasing Ridley fans for months), but at this point her missing the cut is just plausible enough to garner a significant rating drop. Here's hoping any worries about Sheik's chances are unfounded.
Want - 90% - She's a great character who has become something of a Smash staple; removing her at this point would be very unfortunate.

Rhythm Wrestler - 8.64%
I just averaged the scores of the monkey and Karate Joe because I have absolutely no idea.

Nominations
Yarne and Owain x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Jimmy T: 0.9%
Want: 27%

Sheik: 99.5%
Want: 100%

Rhythm Wrestler: 7.65%

x5 Leon

I didn't ignore ya, man. I've just been slow in gathering the goods. Here is a few for Megaman.

MEGALOMANIA - Mega Man 2 Dr. Wily stages 1-2
MEGALOMANIA - Mega Man 3 Title screen
Mega Man and Bass Intro Stage remix
Mega Man and Bass King's Stages
Electrical Communication

And here are a few Robot Master themes.

Hornetman
Galaxyman
Sheepman

Your request is fulfilled.
You should be happy. This made me accidentally double post.

 

[Toxicroaker]

Man... A double post due to my stupidity alone...

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Jimmy T. Likelihood: 2.5%
Want: 60%

Shiek Likelihood: 98%
Want: 75%

Wrestler: 8%

Rhythm Heaven stage x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Jimmy T.:
Likelihood: 5%
Again, I don't see any WarioWare characters making the transition to playable this time. Jimmy T. isn't that popular either, at least compared to Mona or Ashley.

Want: 30%
Meh. I don't hate him, but I don't really like him either. He isn't my first choice for a Warioware character either.

Sheik:
Likelihood: 100%
No matter how you look at it, it's you guy's fault that I'm not popular a non-clone two-time veteran won't be cut. Get over it.

Want: 100%
No cuts. Once a Smash bro, always a Smash bro.

RH Wrestler: 3%

Promoted AT x 5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Jimmy T. - 0%
Sheik - 96%

Wrestler prediction - 1%

Alexandra Roivas x3, Black Mage x2

I'd also like to suggest "Stadium is a Punch-Out!! stage" to the concept list!

 

[NickerBocker]

Aww man, i missed Toad's and Pittoo's day...

Oh well, Everything i wanted to say was covered pretty well by everyone else.

Jimmy T.
Chance & Want: Abstain

Don't know much about Warioware, so i will back out of this one.

Sheik
Chance: 98%
Want: 100%

The main (and only real) argument against Sheik is that she should be replaced by someone more iconic, and more "relevant" than herself. While I am not against the idea of Impa, the most likely replacer, I feel that it would be unnecessary to do such a thing. There's just a few problems with this; Sheik is literally Zelda attempting to imitate a Shiekah and, therefore, imitating Impa, and Sheik is more relevant in the Smash universe.

In OoT, Sheik hides herself from Ganondorf by learning the ways of the Sheikah and becoming one herself. She is taught by Impa the skills that she gains, therefore i strongly believe that changing Sheik into Impa would only alienate Smash players, especially those who don't know a lot about LoZ, but still like to play as the ninja-like Sheik. Of course, technically they could be swapped out and there could be no difference other than appearance, but in all honesty, what is the point of that other than bringing in a new character and NOT having anything new to the game? Why bother?

For the record, i would much rather have an Impa standalone (and think it is more likely) with a hybrid magic-close-quarters combat system.

Sheik is alot more important in the Smash universe as well. The unique thing about Zelda/Sheik is that she is able to switch from one to the other, adopting a new moveset and characteristics, and another reason i believe Sheik is here to stay.

Wrastler: 5.6%

Nominations
Pokemon Trainer x5

 

[bigbro2233]

Jimmy T:
Chance: 15%
Want: 5%

If we had a new Wario character, I would prefer Waluigi or Captain Syrup. Sure, Jimmy T would have the best WarioWare potential, but I don't feel as if we need him.

Sheik:
Chance: 90%
Want: 95%

Although I never use Sheik, it would be sad to see her go. The only reason why she would be gone is that there are much more important relevant characters (Ghirahim, Toon Zelda, etc.).

Noms:
Ridley x3
Galacta Knight x2

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Jimmy T:

Chance: 0.5%
Warioware doesn't scream playable character, and Mona would be the more likely pick, she brings more honestly, and has more variety, which is much needed to adequately represent Warioware.

Want: 10%
He shares my name, so it'd be expected for me to at least partially main him... and I just don't like him that much...



Sheik:

The Phantom is an assist trophy. Look at the colours, they're basic and toonish, and while the metal has the shine of a more realistic setting Toon Link has more realistic lighting in smash than his native game too. So think this through, why would Twilight Princess Zelda have a Toon Phantom. That out the way let's discuss the character's chances.

Chance: 99.99%
Sheik is Zelda, except in disguise, and male, because magic. Zelda in smash is Sheik (mainly because Zelda sucks in smash). The idea of cutting one of the most used Smash characters after the Mewtwo incident (an unused character) is stupid. (S)He'll stay around, they even kept the TP design for Zelda so she can keep Sheik fine.

Want: 99%
I'd prefer Zelda be useful herself if I'm honest, but I don't want the transformation cut either because (s)he's popular in smash bros.


Pokémon AT*5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Jimmy T. Chances: 30% Want: 0%
Sheik Chances: 80% Want: 10%
Noms: Chef Kawasaki X5

 

[TumblrFamous]

Jimmy T. Chance: 1.99%
Eh, it was Ashley or bust.
Jimmy T. Want: 0%
Eh, it was Ashley or bust.
Sheik Chance: 98%
She's made a name for herself in Smash. She's an important part of Zelda's character, and as Fal said, a non-clone two-timer will most likely not be cut.
Sheik Want: 100%
I will give 100% to every Brawl veteran, they all deserve it, and are very interesting.

Zelda Newcomer x5

 

[dimensionsword64]

Jimmy T:
Want: 0%
Chance:1%

Shiek:
Want: 100%
Chance: 85%

Prediction
Wrestler: 5%

Nominations: x5 Tetris Stage

 

[Louie G.]

JIMMY T:
Chance: 4%
He's a likeable and unique character who is a staple to the WarioWare franchise. Then again, there's Mona.

Want: 90%
If not just to hear this in glorious HD:

Although I am actually counting on hearing this on the next WarioWare stage.

SHEIK:

Chance: 99%
I still don't see the point in cutting a Smash staple like Sheik, and I especially don't see the point in replacing her with Impa, who would play extremely similar to her anyway. There is no good reason to do this.

Want: 100%
Any character that has appeared in both Melee and Brawl should stick around for the rest of Smash's career. At least, in my opinion.

RHW Prediction: 7.5%
Because there are some pretty high predictions going on here. Wow.

Noms: Palutena x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

jimmy t. - 3.21%
small chance for a warioware character, and there's also Mona to take some of his little chance away
want - 50%
eh, couldn't care
sheik - 99.95%
she is an unique two time veteran, there is no point and no purpose for her to be cut, the only reason why it isn't 100, is because she isn't confirmed
want - 65%
though I have never used sheik, he is still a veteran, that's enough for want seeing how I want none of them cut
wrestler - 4.74%
I have no idea like usual
nominations:
SakiX5

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Jimmy T.

Chance: 10%- He has to deal with Mona.

Want: 50%- He's alright, never really been my kind of character.

Sheik: 95%- She's been in Smash twice in a row. 'Nuff said.

Want: 60%- Never been a gigantic fan of her, but she's pretty cool in Smash.

Wrestler Prediction

4.8%

Nominations

Plasm Wraith x5

 

[SmashShadow]

Jimmy T: 4%
Want: 35% So many others I want before him.
Sheik: 60%
I'm definitely not sure that Sheik is coming back this time around. First there's Impa who seems to be being pushed back into the limelight. Secondly, there's the phantom. The phantom is not only associated with zelda in Spirit Tracks, but they went out their way to redesign the phantom to fit a realistic style rather than making him the same style as Toon Link and conveniently chose him to be revealed at the same time as Zelda. If he was an assist trophy, why reveal him along with another character? If he was an assist trophy, why redesign him? While this doesn't flat out confirm that he replaces Sheik, we've already seen screens of her other 3 specials and her forward smash.
Want: 70% If she could be her own character and not attached to Zelda this would be a 100%

RH Wrestler: 2%

 

[Glaciacott]

Jimmy T.
Chances - 2%
Again, now that the Ashley ship has sailed, I don't see any second Wario Ware rep given how Ashley was simply the most popular of the bunch. So going for Jimmy, who's third on the line (after Mona) just doesn't seem likely at all.

Want - 90%
When I actually sat down and thought about it, it would actually be pretty hilarious and amazing to see this guy. Just take a look:

Well darn, now I miss Wario Ware games ... so hilarious xD

Sheik
Chances - 99%
We already saw Zelda and her design is NOT the Skyward Sword design. Sheik is happening.

Want - 50%
Pure, blissful indifference. Never really cared much about Sheik in Smash, tbh

Predictions
Wrestler - 7.3%
I foresee high want scores affecting chance scores.

Nominations
x5 Bowser Land

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Jimmy T.: 0.8%
Probably no new Warioware guys this game.

Want: 60%
SWEET RAVE PARTY

Sheik: 100%
Why would she be cut?

Want: 90%
Not 100% because I don't really like playing as Sheik.

Wrestler+Interviewer prediction: 2.84%

Nominate:
Kunio-Kun/Alex x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Jimmy T
5% Chance
Wario can rep WarioWare fine. But he is popular, and could be unique.

90% Want
Its so stupid it must happen.

Shiek
100% Chance
Impa plz. Shiek will return, if she did in Brawl,she will again.
100% want
No Cuts

Wrestler
7.11% Prediction

Some numbers will sway the vote...

Palutena x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Jimmy T. - 12%

I think Ashley was the only WarioWare newcomer with a decent chance, but Jimmy T. has a better chance now that Ashley isn't in, I suppose.

Want - 70%

Ashley was my preferred choice for a WarioWare newcomer, but Jimmy T. is pretty awesome too.

Sheik - 95%

The Phantom possibly being an attack, and balance issues are literally the only things Sheik has against him/her this time. Sakurai has stated they will try to put in as many characters as they can and he also acknowledges that all characters have their own fans. Plus, Sheik has made the jump from Melee to Brawl. I think Sheik is pretty safe.

Want - 100%
One of my Brawl and Melee ones and a memorable character from Ocarina of Time. I'd be very angry if Sheik was not present.

Wrestler Prediction - 6.11%


Playable Master Hand x5

 

[PigmaskColonel]

JIMMY T.

CHANCES - 40%
I feel like now that Ashley isn't in his way, Jimmy T.'s chances are considerably higher, but he still isn't all that likely.

WANT - 75%
Jimmy T. has always been my favorite WarioWare character behind 9-Volt and...Well, Wario. I really think it would be funny to see him play kind of like WFT with him using dancing moves, but I'm not really sure he has a whole lot of moveset potential in the end.

SHEIK

CHANCES - 85%
I feel like after Melee and Brawl Sheik is a series mainstay.

WANT - 10%
While she/he can be fun to use at times, she/he just aren't really my type of character. I never really used Sheik at all, nor did I ever use Zelda. I just...Don't really care for her/him.

WRESTLER PREDICTION - 7%

NOMINATE: PORKY MINCH x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

I'm genuinely surprised that so many people are giving Jimmy T. such high want scores. At this rate he might actually break 50%! I didn't know there were so many people that liked the idea.
Jimmy T.
Chance 9%
This is mostly just going of the basis that Mona got a 8.5% overall score, and that I find Jimmy just slightly likelier than Mona. If I was there the day we rated Mona I probably would have gave her about a 4% chance and Jimmy a 5% chance. I mostly support him as a joke to be honest.
Want 100%
I'm just gonna use a quote from Groose himself that I found on the Jimmy T. support thread that basically sums up my entire thoughts on Jimmy T.

While the inner child in me is screaming "YES!," the rational me is screaming "HELL NO!"

I support... in the comfort that it will never happen.

Sheik
Chance 70%
Want 70%
Same as before, but with a slightly lowered chance score because of the confirmation of Zelda without Sheik confirmed alongside her. Want stays the same though.

Wrestler prediction 7.1%

Nominations
Two retro reps x5

 

[SmasherMaster]

Must get this in quickly.

Jimmy T
Chance: 7%
I find him less likely than Mona, but he has a good chance. that i because Sakurai found the Wii Fit Trainer to be the best dancing character.

Want: 40%
I prefered Mona and Ashley over him, but he would be a cool character.

Sheik
Chances: 90%
Zelda still has the Brawl look and Ocarina or Time destroys any chance of Sheik being cut for not being recent. She is also popular and unique. The only reason is because she is not confirmed and both unique characters and popular characters have been cut before.

Want: 100%
I do not like cuts.

Predictions for Wrestler 7%
I don't know what will happen.

Nominations
Prometed Assist Trophies x5

 

[Tselel (5805)]

Jimmy T.
Too unfamiliar to give anything here.

Sheik
Chance: 90%
Though only appearing in one game, this game was rereleased relatively recently on the 3DS so as to still be in recent memory. Also, (s)he has become an established roster member by now. It'd take some heavy explaining if there was a cut, but it isn't completely out of the question.

Want: 98%
I love Sheik, but that extra 2% goes to Zelda's potential new down B.


I cast all my lot with the first son of Light. Hope Rides Alone.
Protoman x5

 

[Erimir]

Jimmy T stuff first...

I don't think Wario Ware is getting another rep, personally. Wario has the sales to justify it, the problem is that no other character really has the importance to justify it. A series having a cast of many less important characters doesn't just mean that there's not an obvious second-in-line, it also makes it less likely that there will be another character at all. Jimmy T doesn't have anything going for him that Ashley doesn't, really, if you ask me. Hell, Ashley probably has better move set potential.

Jimmy T chances: 2%

Jimmy T want: 15%
Meh. He's kinda funny, but meh. I'd rather see Tingle if I wanna see a kinda joke character.

Sheik stuff now...

Personally, I think that we are prematurely rating her. The thing we know about the Phantom is that it exists in the game and nothing else. Is it a part of Zelda's moveset? Is it an Assist Trophy?

Here we see Zelda in some sort of pose with the Phantom. You could say that it's a summoning pose?

Well… where is your Phantom?
Nothing indicates that the Phantom is a special move and I am leaning more towards of it being an Assist Trophy.

I agree about this. It doesn't look obviously like those moves are related. Of course, some will argue that the Phantom could be off-screen in the second pic, because it can move around, or she did this move after summoning it. The Phantom, if it is on the stage in the second shot is not in the same position. So it's definitely clear that she's making the exact same pose and not the exact same thing is happening.

But what I didn't really pay attention to before is what Cheezey Bites pointed out: that Phantom is not in the same art style as Zelda! It is in the Toon series art style. It isn't really that cel-shaded but neither is Toon Link in Smash. It's more obvious when you look at the proportions. He has those short stubby legs and exaggerated torso. Now, Phantoms are basically just Darknuts without the body inside (Wind Waker Darknuts look pretty similar). Compare the Darknut from Twilight Princess:

Spoiler

You see realistic proportions: the legs are much longer relative to the torso. That is very similar to what a Phantom would look like if it were done in a more Twilight Princess style.

Not only that, but Zelda does not control Phantoms from afar in Spirit Tracks, she possesses them. The Phantom in the picture does not have the glowing eyes that they get when Zelda is possessing them. So it's fair to say that the Phantom doesn't really fit with Zelda's canonical uses of them. And it's actually not the same Zelda... if Toon Link is being treated separately from regular Link, then it would be a little weird to give her a Toon Zelda move.

More likely, it's an AT, representing the Toon Zelda series.

Nevertheless, it does cause a little doubt. I expect the Phantom will be explained sooner or later, at which time Sheik and Impa's chances will be much clearer.

Sheik chances: 90%

Sheik want: 99%
I don't actually care that much about Sheik vs. Impa, as I said before. If Impa got in, that would likely mean Zelda got a new move, and Impa would be the spiritual successor to Sheik with a new down-B and FS and perhaps some overall improvements (the chain never struck me as the most useful move). So I'd be happy either way. I'd only be annoyed if Sheik was cut completely with no replacement.

Rhythm Wrestler prediction: 2%

Nominations:
Young Link x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Jimmy T: 0% in both chance and want. He has to hope for getting at least a trophy this time around.

Sheik:

Chance: 98% - Ocarina of Time is obviously still very important to this game, likely because of the remake, and furthermore Sheik is an insanely popular character for Smashers. She's here to stay. The recent NoE pictures showcased all of Zelda's moves, with the exception of her Down-B (which it still hinted at) and there was no Phantom in sight, I'm betting on it being an AT.

Want: 100% - Remember when I said that she was insanely popular? I don't really play as Sheik, but my big brother alts her, and in general it'd be quite a heavy loss for Smash fans. Look at the fanbase's reaction when Mewtwo got cut, and then take into consideration that he was often hated on and was quite unpopular in Melee. Now try and imagine what would happen if Sheik, one of the most popular Smash characters and a 2 times veteran, was cut. Yeah...

Rhythm Wrestler Prediction: 0.7%

Nominations:
5x Takamaru

 

[Aqua Rock X]

The fact I managed to increase your want from 0 to 15, is drink worthy indeed. Maybe by Smash 5/6 I'll have even manage to get it even higher(providing he keeps appearing in quality games and Nintendo don't go bust by that time).

What I liked most was the awesome art and the impressive rogue's gallery! I think overcoming an interesting, diverse, and powerful set of villians, adds a lot of character to a hero.

So for today's round...

JIMMY T.

Chance: 1% - Seems more like an assist trophy character to me.

Want: 70% - 50% for the character + 20% for that epic fro', yo!

SHEIK

Chance: 90% - A staple of the Smash series.

Want: 95% - A staple of the Smash series.

Wrestler Prediction: .30% - I have no clue...

Nominations:
Tetris Stage x5

 

[Knight Dude]

Jimmy T.

Chances 10%: He's popular as far as Wario Ware characters go. But I do agree with @ Aqua Rock X . He's a better choice as an Assist character.

Want 30%: I'm not opposed to his inclusion, but I would much rather see Captain Syrup. I feel like she would offer more in terms of moveset.

Sheik

Chances 90%: Honestly, I see no reason why she should be cut. It can't really be relevancy. Otherwise she wouldn't be in Brawl. And if that was an issue, then you have the OoT remake which features her. So unless the Phantom proves that she's gone, I see no reason to think otherwise.

Want: 100%: Along with Mario, Fox, Samus, and Luigi. Sheik is one of my favorite characters to use in Smash. So of course I would want to see her become playable again. I'm also planning to use Megaman whenever I get the chance to play Smash 4.

Nominations: Dark Samus x4, Bowser Jr. x1

 

[McDuckletts]

Jimmy T.
Chance: 7%
Want: 50%

Sheik
Chance: 100%
A two time veteran getting cut? Haha, no. That would just be stupid.
Want: 65%

Wrestler prediction: 6.91%

Nom: PT Pokemon (no trainer) X5

 

[Starcutter]

Jimmy T.
Chance: 2%
Want: 45%

Sheik: 75% diddy's getting to me. not too much though.
Want: 97%

wrestler: 5.6%

nomination:
Stork x3
Grovyle x2

 

[Groose]

Update tomorrow. There is no time!

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Update tomorrow. There is no time!

Just want to delay Yarne and Owain ?

 

[cephalopod17]

Jimmy T.

Chance: 8%
I do not see a new Wario character likely. Plus he has to deal with Mona.

Want: 10%
He'd be an interesting choice. I really like his theme, and he is a cool character in general.

Sheik

Chance: 98%
I think that after being in two previous installments of Smash Bros. and even though s/he only appeared in one game, that game was Ocarina of Time. One of the most successful games on the N64 and one of the most famous games in gaming history. There is a small possibility of being cut, but if Sakurai didn't cut Sheik in Brawl, s/he is her to stay.

Want: 100%
Sheik is a veteran, enough said.

Wrestler: 6.5%

Nominations:
Gangplank Galleon x2
Pokémon Assist Trophy x3

 

[BindingBlade]

Jimmy T: 0.3%
Want: 0.1%
Fact is, he's lower on the WarioWare list than most people would think. I'm anticipating Mona, Ashley, or Kat & Anna for Smash #5, and I'm pretty sure the volts and other assorted characters would be better suited and of more importance than Jimmy T.

Shiek: 99.9%
Want: 66.7%
Honestly, you have mush for brains if you imagine Shiek would get cut. Despite the fact that Shiek deserves her own slot (she actually has a unique moveset), I fully expect her to return as a part of Zelda. She will return, that's more sure. Although nothing is written in stone, if you get my drift.

Wrestler: 0.6%
Want: 7.7%

 

[XenothiumX]

Jimmy T.
Likelihood: 1%

Want: 5%

Shiek
Likelihood: 99.99%

Want: 100%

Rhythm Heaven Wrestler
Prediction: 2%

Nominations:
F-Zero Newcomer x5

 

[Chandeelure]

XD
The first page of this thread is so funny, everybody saying that Bowser Jr. is practically a shoo-in and the most likely Mario character.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

I still believe he's a shoo-in!

 

[Morbi]

XD
The first page of this thread is so funny, everybody saying that Bowser Jr. is practically a shoo-in and the most likely Mario character.

To be fair, who honestly speculated that Sakurai would blatantly disregard important Mario characters and add Rosalina... aside from Mario and Sonic Guy? I mean, I came to that revelation once Toad was essentially de-confirmed for the second time. One could infer that when it came to Mario, importance wasn't a factor that was too relevant.

Still. Bowser Jr. "shoe-in," that is fairly funny. The only characters I think are "shoe-in" are Mewtwo... and Chrom.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I can't wait for Rhythm Heaven to get low want scores and abysmal chance scores.
Again.