Genesect:
The way I break down Pokemon reps is I try to think who is possible. Not likely, but possible. And I do think there is a chance we will get a generation V rep as opposed to a generation 6 rep. I have yet to any particular generation 6 rep emerge as particularly likely (not including Mega-versions of previous Pokemon), so I can't really discuss a specific gen 6 rep. I don't see Pokemon necessarily sticking to 4 characters, and I don't see Lucario as definite returner (not by a log shot). With that in mind, I do think there is a chance we will get a fifth rep that isn't Lucario, and Genesect would be a good choice for a variety reasons. As I've said various times, you don't need to be the most popular in a series. You need to just have a certain level of popularity. Genesect has the popularity with a Pokemon fanbase.
It is also currently in the public eye due to it's upcoming movie. It shares the screen with Mewtwo, but the two aren't necessarily competing against each other for a possible 5th slot. Does Genesect have important within the context of B&W? Yes, as a legendary, it does have important in those games. Its reveal was just last year, so within the context of Smash 4 development time frame, it is relatively recent. It would have been around during the preliminary discussions of the roster. I also think Smash often represents the previous era of Nintendo. Lucario represented not generation IV, but that Nintendo era of Pokemon. I believe at least one new rep in Pokemon will do the same.
For Pokemon reps the question is: do we think the Pokemon company could recommend it? Of course, he just had a movie. So considering when Sakurai asked the Pokemon Company, there is a great chance he would have been the pokemon they were working on or would have been fresh in the mind. There is no reason to dismiss reps from Generation 5 without viable Generation 6 reps. Out of Gen 5 reps, the only conceivable reps I could see would be Zoroark and Genesect. I have no reason to believe that the Pokemon Company would recommend previous generational (1 through 4) reps based on the questions that Sakurai asks (according to the interview) without some serious reasoning (such as Mewtwo). With that in mind, I'm not that confident he will be in the game, but I believe we should be open to the possibility, so:
Liklihood: 35%
If this was my hit for an FE attack, I would definitely not take it. However, if my enemy had this hit percentage, I would definitely prepare my troops if I could.
Want: 90%. I'm a big advocate for Pokemon not just having generation 1 reps. I think having just generation 1 reps would be a disappointing way to represent pokemon. What makes something iconic is more than just the first in a franchise. For Pokemon fans, each iteration had their own iconic elements. For those of that started with Red and Blue, it's easy to dismiss everything else that came after because the new ground that the first games broke. But I think each generation of pokemon has brought something to the table.
As for Genesect itself: Black and White was the best Pokemon game in terms of overall package (story, gameplay, fun) since the original Gold and Silver. So I'm really rooting for a rep from that generation. Genesect would have some very interesting gameplay possibilities. It would have a different fighting style than all the reps that came before it, and it has a really unique design. Genesect is also a villain (in the new movie), which would let pokemon better fit the archetype structure: Hero (Pikachu), Sidekick (pokemon trainer), opposite gender hero (Jigglypuff), and Villain (Genesect). I would be very happy if he was in the game. Probably second or third for my pokemon rep (Oshawott somehow being included, N (if they could get him right) com before Genesect).
Chibi-Robo prediction: 16.56%
Nominations:
Lip x 5
