Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Primid]

SONIC

Likelihood: 93% His inclusion was last minute in Brawl, but I feel like he is a top priority for SSB4. He's such a recognizable character and he has a huge following, it'd be a stupid decision to get rid of him.

Want: 100% It's Sonic! Probably the best 3rd party character choice hands down.

Genesect Prediction: 23%
Nominations: Porky x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Sonic
Chance 85%: Sega stated that they would love to have him in smash 4, but its up to nintendo. I dont see any reason at ALL Sakurai would not put him in.
Want 100%: Just give him a moveset where his attacks feel different

Genesect 10%

Nominations:
Bomberman x5

 

[Sid-cada]

B-but...we didn't rate Snake yet.

... You know, I think at this point I have forgotten everything possible about this thread short of not posting in it. I've forgotten score predictions, to nominate, use extra nominations... I don't know if I should laugh or facepalm. Maybe both?

Meh. Still makes sense, so I ain't changing it.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Sonic
Likelihood: 90% - Being a popular and iconic video game character, he has a very good chance of returning. I don't see why he'd be cut, but I guess it's all up to Nintendo and Sakurai.
Want: 100% I love Sonic the Hedgehog, he's one of my favorite video game characters. He was also my first main in Brawl. I just hope this time around the make have a more interesting moveset.

Genesect: 11%

Nominations:
Porky x5
Snake x5

(Btw, Groose, your new avatar...haha I don't even...)

 

[Groose]

Holy ****, Groose, your avatar... What

(Btw, Groose, your new avatar...haha I don't even...)

I wanted a Godot avatar... but my name is Groose... so I did a merger.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Sonic:


Chances: 95%

Want: 100%


Genesect: 15% - He's going to fall into the same fate as Deoxys


Nominations:

Lip x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

I wanted a Godot avatar... but my name is Groose... so I did a merger.

You've got mad Paint skills dude...xD

 

[SchAlternate]

Sonic the Hedgehog
Likelihood: 95% - There's near to no reason for Sakurai to remove Sonic. I mean, Christ, he's Sonic the Hedgehog!
Want: 100% - He's Sonic the Mother****ing Hedgehog!

Genesect
Prediction: 30% - He's a fairly popular character right now and has the potential of having an interesting movepool, but Mewtwo outshines his chances... though, maybe they can both appear in the game together. I mean, a Pokemon newcomer is almost guaranteed.

Nomination
Lip x5

 

[Starbound]

Sonic's chances: 75%

This is the highest I can give a third party due to licensing issues.

Want: 20%
I'm a bit of a purist, and I don't really like Sonic's somewhat rabbid fanbase either.

 

[Xenigma]

I missed another round, this time for absolutely no reason. I'm slipping!

Sonic - 90%
It's simple: if Nintendo can get the rights to use Sonic in Smash Bros. again, Sonic will return. Of any third party character, no one is a more famous rival to Mario and company than the blue hedgehog, and considering the continuation of the Mario and Sonic at the Olympics games and Sega releasing more Sonic games exclusively on Nintendo consoles, it seems the two companies are on very friendly terms. The only reason I refrain from going above 90% is the possibility that Sakurai wants to keep third party characters to one game only, but I'm more inclined to believe Sonic at the very least will merit a return.
Want - 90% - After the joy of seeing Mario versus Sonic in Brawl, I'd be sad to see a Smash without him.

Genesect Prediction - 7%
Flavor of the month legendary. I can't imagine most see it as anything more than that.

Nominations
Black Shadow x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Sonic

Likelihood: 94% - Pretty sur ehe's returning, maybe he'll not if if third parties are "guests" from one game, but that's not likely

Want: 90% - I don't want any cuts, but Sonic is probably my least used character in Brawl so I don't really care

Genesect: 23%

Nomination:
Blaziken x2
Primid x3

 

[SchAlternate]

I wanted a Godot avatar... but my name is Groose... so I did a merger.

Here, try this:

 

[3Bismyname]

Likelihood: 40%
as a third party we shouldnt expect him to be a shoe in by any means. though he does stand a better chance than most other third parties

Want: 5%
frankly ive been tired of the series since 2000 so yeah.

Genesect: 25%

 

[Glaciacott]

we are all saying 100% on wanting him he my be the first and only character with a 100% wnt besides mewtwo

Want: 20%

Likelihood: 40%
as a third party we shouldnt expect him to be a shoe in by any means. though he does stand a better chance than most other third parties

Want: 5%
frankly ive been tired of the series since 2000 so yeah.

 

[FalKoopa]

Sonic the Hedgehog....

Likelihood: 95%
Nintendo and Sega has been on great terms lately, with Sonic games coming out exclusively on the Wii U and 3DS. The companies obviously like to capitalize on the Mario vs. Sonic rivalry, that's why the olympic games exist, and Sonic has a HUGE fan demand to boot.

Want: 20%
Despite me not wanting any cuts, I actually won't be opposed to cutting 3rd parties. Also, I kind of dislike the Sonic franchise, and I'm not fond Sonic as a character, nor do I like his moveset in Brawl.

Genesect Prediction: 20%
I think his chances (in people's minds) took a dive with the revelation of Mega-Lucario.

Nominatins: Porky x 5

EDIT: lol @ your avatar, Groose.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Ok most of us is saying 100%

 

[Alban712]

Sonic The Hedgehog

Likelihood: 80%
Want: 100%

Genesect: 12,5%

Nominations: Ashley x 5
Mona x 5
(Can I use the bonus that I got from winning the Lucas prediction today ?)

 

[---]

Sonic - 50%
Want - 55%

Basically he's a 3rd party, and frankly 50% is the best I'll ever give one. Am also not opposed to having 3rd parties be cut, though I would like to see him stay.

 

[NickerBocker]

Sonic
Chance: 90%
Want: 95%

Genesect: 14.3%

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[Gam3rALO]

Sonic
Chance: 95%
Sonic now has a decent size connection to Nintendo more than most other third party characters, obviously more than Snake,(I never knew why he was added ). Like I said before: Sonic is defiantly going to return in smash 4 because he is a MUCH bigger priority as a third party, than Snake is.

Want: 98%
I really like Sonic. He was very fun to play as and he should be returning. I hope his Side-B and Down-B aren't similar again, though.

Prediction for Genesect: 6.82%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Sonic
Chance: 70% - It's hard to predict third parties, but Sonic was so popular in Brawl that I'm sure he'll secure a spot in SSB4.
Want: 63% - He's fun to use, but I was never a big fan.

Genesect prediction: 8%

Nominations: Professor Layton x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

SANIC: 99%
Sega and Nintendo are getting along pretty closely these days. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Segata Sanshiro got in as a sticker or trophy one of these days.

Want: 100%
GOTTA GO FAST

Rebuild of Genesect Predictvangelion: 3.33%: You can (not) play as him in SSB4

Genesect Music
Tentacruel Angel's Thesis
A Step Forward Into Torterra
Flygon Me to the Moon Stone
Komm, Susser Todd Snap

Shiny Genesect Music
The Pokemon Trainer Red Ambassadress
Both of You, Teeter Dance Like You Want to Win This Double Battle
Here Comes Charmeleon

Nominate:
Marina x2
Kunio-Kun/Alex x2
Isabelle x1

I wanted a Godot avatar... but my name is Groose... so I did a merger.

You're...a genius, Groose.

 

[Foot Foot]

Sonic
Likelihood : 70%
Want : 0%, Sonic is awful

Genesect : 25%

 

[Forde]

Sonic
Chance: 75%
Want: 85%

Out of Snake and Sonic, I could see Sonic returning much more easily than Snake. While not my favorite 3rd party character, I'd love to see him return.

Genesect Prediction: 10% Too FOTM to get in, especially instead of characters like Blaziken, Mewtwo, Zoroark.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[κomıc]

Sonic
Chance: 95%
Between Snake and Sonic, the blue hedgehog is far more relevant to Nintendo's history. And of course the strong partnership between Nintendo and Sega is really strong. I would not be surprised if Sonic is revealed in October to coincide with the release of Sonic: Lost Worlds.

Want: 100%
Always liked Sonic and it would be weird to not see him with the other cast of Nintendo mascots. He fits right in.

BTW, anyone remember when Sakurai demoed Brawl and how he called Sonic generic? That's my only concern for him to be cut

 

[Erimir]

Have I ever mentioned how all y'all are newbs?

Sonic

Popularity: High, both generally and in fans wanting him in Smash. He was a very well-received inclusion.

Relevancy: Before, Sonic had appeared in some exclusive games on Nintendo, but he was included primarily because of his rivalry with Mario. Nowadays, Nintendo and Sega get along great, and Sonic is one of the 3rd party series that appears most often on Nintendo consoles. With more Mario & Sonic games and deals for exclusives, Sonic's connection to Nintendo is stronger than ever.

Design: We've seen it. It fits Sonic pretty well. Hopefully they improve it for next time, because he didn't have the best designed move set. I mean primarily as far as balance, but it would also be nice if he had a less... repetitive set of attacks. I'm not really sure what the options are for that, but I'd also be fine if they just made him better.

Roster and Competition: I don't see that Sonic has any direct competition. Sonic is the only Sega franchise that will be in Smash Bros, and Sonic is the lead.

Legal issues: Sega seemingly doesn't have a problem with Sonic appearing in Smash Bros again. And why would they? It's great promotion for their character, and to an audience that will own systems that have Sonic games and players who are likely to enjoy classic platforming action even if it's not "mature".

Sakurai factors: There's a lot more uncertainty here than some people are acknowledging. What has Sakurai said that strongly indicates he wants 3rd party characters to become series regulars? He's said a lot more about 3rd parties being special cases and so forth than he has about any of them being guaranteed spots. That might just be him keeping expectations low for other 3rd parties, or to make Sonic and/or Snake's return that much sweeter, but there's a chance he really means it. Mega Man making it in probably helps though, since while Mega Man certainly is one of the most deserving 3rd parties (and one of my favorite video game characters), I have to say that Sonic probably is the most fitting.

Sonic chances: 90%
There are a lot of good reasons to include Sonic, and only one good reason not to (namely, that he's 3rd party). Sakurai's thoughts about that one factor are largely unknown. While the positive factors are quite strong, we have to allow some uncertainty because of that. I would be surprised if Sonic didn't return, but not downright shocked.

Sonic want: 70%
To be honest, it's more about the idea of Sonic being in the game, as Mario's biggest rival.

But I'm not the greatest fan of his games. His "cool" persona strikes me as very 90s nowadays as well. There's no way I can give him as high of a score as characters like Mega Man or Ridley. That said, his games aren't bad (least, not all of them), and I should probably give some of them more of a shot. Maybe I'll give his new game a shot... probably not til next year though. I'm a busy man and this fall is already packed with games I wanna play.

Genesect prediction: 18%
I don't really know what to put here. Pokemon already has a lot of reps, and a lot of the veterans seem to be getting love in the new Pokemon game (new forms for Mewtwo and Lucario, new type for Jiggly). Zoroark seems more popular... But I've been underestimating lately, so...

Nominations:
Mike Jones x5

 

[ToothiestAura]

Sonic:

Chances: 90-99.9%
The most wanted 3rd Party pre-brawl. Want for him has only waned due to his appearance in the last game - people are now taking him for granted. Sonic, however, adds a considerable amount of hype. Albeit much less that he added to Brawl. Considering Sega and Nintendo have developed a much closer relationship as of late, I see it unlikely he will be dropped. Of course, Sakurai may not want repeat 3rd parties or something to that effect, SO my range did not go to 100%. There's always a chance.

Want: 50%
If this had been Pre-Brawl days, my want would have been 100%. I won't be broken up about it if he isn't in SSB4 - one smash entry for a 3rd part is more than enough to be happy with.

 

[Arcanir]

Sonic

Chances: 80% Sega's relationship with Nintendo is still going strong and with three exclusive games on the way Sonic's future with them is still looking bright. However, he's still a third party and thus could be treated as a "guest star" for Brawl and not used again if Sakurai decides to do so, plus there's still the legalities of being third party that they have to go through. All that said, if the doors are open to returning third parties then Sonic easily has a great shot.

Want: 100% Love the character, plus I'd love to have him and Megaman fight it out.

 

[3Bismyname]

yeah sorry. Sonic is just the number one character id be least torn up about losing.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Sonic the Hedgehog
Chance: 98%
Sonic's an icon. A gaming legend. Someone half of us grew up with. This is a character that was so important not only did he delay Brawl, he's also partially responsible for the removal of Mewtwo and Roy, who are both hotly requested returnees.
He has a HUGE rabid fanbase and even though he had a period where all of his games were lackluster, the sales were still impressive. Any other character's series bar Mario would have died out after such an abysmal showcase, but Sonic essentially PRINTS MONEY.
Now his games are going strength to strength, he and Mario are hanging out and olympic gaming it up, he even has his own rival Mario Kart game, and Nintendo exclusivity makes their friendly rivalry all the more likely to happen in Smash 4.

I certainly wouldn't want to be Sakurai if he cut one of the most beloved video game characters of all time.

Want: 100% yes.
Sonic is who I grew up with. Tails was the first video game character I ever had the chance to play as(friend had the Sega Megadrive...or Genesis to the Americans). I didn't even start getting into Mario until Smash 64 rolled around and a friend invited me to play it. Bar Yoshi, he's my most hotly awaited returnee.

Genesect prediction: 12%

Nominations:
Roy X 5

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Sonic:

Chance: 99%
As a third party I can't give him a lock status, but Sega have said they'd want him in smash 4, so I don't actually see a problem that side. I think there'd be a fan outcry if he was dropped as a one-and-done, and I'm sure Sakurai realises this.

Want: 100%
I want the whole Team Sonic, I think the series is big enough to handle it even without being 1st party (that music section should be testament to that), so of course I want sonic in too.


Genesect: 17%
He's not got the same GF push as Zoroark, not is he as popular, but he's more relevant now for what it's worth. I think there are enough people who will think his movie inc will have a big effect on his chances, but I still don't see him beating Zoroark (who I thought got higher than he really deserved). He also similarly has a gimmick which would be hard to copy over with his drives, though again, didn't stop Zoroark getting 20%.


Slime*5
(Looks like some Goo-man in a plop hat is going to overtake me... And yet, slime not too disheartened by this.. I might yet U-slurp Ghirahim goo.. It's a race for the plop for slurp!)

 

[Glaciacott]

yeah sorry. Sonic is just the number one character id be least torn up about losing.

Haha, don't mind your opinion. It was just funny seeing all the strings of want 100%s getting shot down.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Sonic chance - 80%

Main reason I gave this score is because we don't know how veteran 3rd parties will work...it might just be a once off deal. Think about it...eventually we'll end up with a lot of veteran 3rd parties. Sakurai might not want the 3rd parties to get too big. Granted I think snake is far more likely to become victim to that than Sonic is.

Want - 65%

I like him and he was fun in brawl. I wouldn't be devastated if he didn't return though.

Genesect prediction - 20%

His chances are fading away the closer we get to the sixth gen....Mewtwo is really the only final legendary (deoxys, arceus etc) that has a good chance of making it.

Noms:
Chibi robo x2
Isaac x1
Shulk x2

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Sonic chance=75%

Sonic want=2%

Genesect prediction=10%

Nomination=5xSkull Kid

 

[BaPr]

Sonic
chance 70%
He's a third party. Even though he was wanted by almost everyone, I don't think Smash will let third parties become veterans.
That being said, he is also gaining a closer relationship with Nintendo and it is only a matter of time before SEGA joins them to create Nintega (weird name).
This is the first time 3rd parties joined smash, so I am not sure how it works.
want 100%
Sonic is my favorite video game character of all time! I loved every single one of his games (even Sonic 06). If he doesn't make it to the next smash game, I will be devastated.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Want : 0%, Sonic is awful

THEM'S FIGHTIN' WORDS 'ROUND HERE

 

[Toxicroaker]

OK... here goes..... a... third party ugh!
Sonic: 98% sad to say he will most likely return... I hate that.
Want: 25% wow I actually kinda want a third party. yea that is only because he is a veteran.

Genesect: 11% (why can I not get it right?)

x5 Chancellor Cole

 

[Ephecus]

Sonic

Chance: 95 %
- 5 % for being third party. Given Sonics recent history with Nintendo his return is almost a given.

Want: 92 %
I'm not a fan of his Brawl-Moveset but I am a fan of his games. I hope that they at least change his Final Smash.

Prediction Genesect: 15 %

Nominations: 5x Mr. Game and Watch

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Sonic

Chance: 95 %
- 5 % for being third party. Given Sonics recent history with Nintendo his return is almost a given.

Want: 92 %
I'm not a fan of his Brawl-Moveset but I am a fan of his games. I hope that they at least change his Final Smash.

Prediction Genesect: 15 %

Nominations: 5x Mr. Game and Watch

Amen to that about sonic with luck his moveset will be changed to the one on project m

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Amen to that about sonic with luck his moveset will be changed to the one on project m

They're not going to do that. If they're aware of Project M they'll be careful not to plagiarise it, if not they'll not be able to as they're unaware of it. That said I think all the characters are gonna be better balanced at a minimum, probably with more care put into how they play given Namco's involvement, so I imagine an improved moveset, just not a direct copy of a fan game.

I think the bigger need though is better palette swaps; it's almost impossible to tell them apart mid-game. Hopefully Sega will let Sakurai use Shadow/Silver/Amy/Metal Sonic/Ashura/Werehog colours, but remind everyone it's still sonic, just spray painted a bit.