Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[MattX20]

Lucas: 95%
Honestly, I can't see Lucas getting cut for Smash 4. Considering that Sakurai likes the Mother series, Lucas was intended for Melee, and was one of the initial characters you could play as in Brawl, I don't think he's in any real danger of being cut like Lucario or Toon Link.

Want: 90%
I've warmed up to the little guy over time in Brawl, and he's actually not a bad character to play as.

Robin: 10%
When compared to Roy and Chrom's chances, his don't hold up so well.

Nom:
5X Mona from Warioware

 

[Forde]

Lucas:

Chance 70%

Want: 85% I loved playing Mother 3, thought he was a pretty cool character both in brawl and in his respective game.

Prediction:
Robin: 30% As a major FE fan myself, I love to see newcomer FE chars, but I really don't see him being a new character, with far superior characters that could be put into the new FE character slot, like Chrom, Lucina, a return of Roy, or other characters.

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Lucas!

Likelihood: 90%
He got in due to Japanese popularity, and managed to edge out Mewtwo, of all characters. Also, there are no feasible Mother character who can replace him. (I'm tempted to say Porky, but nah.)

Want: 100%
No cuts please!

Robin the Tactician prediction: 35%
A decent chance. Uniqueness is his strongest argument.

Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[PkRockin]

Lucas

Likelihood: 80%
Many people say that only one rep for Mother was enough. I personally would like to see more, but Ness and Lucas are most likely all Smash will ever get.

Want: 100%
I LOVE playing as Lucas in Brawl and Mother 3 was a great game!

Robin: 30%
Though he does have a chance, Chrom or Lucina will most likely be put in for a new FE rep.

Nomination:
Ashley from WarioWare X5

 

[Glaciacott]

Lol at someone hating Lucas because of SSE. Even though Lucas and R.O.B. were pretty much the only ones to even have some sort of character development during that whole thing.

 

[Ephecus]

Lol at someone hating Lucas because of SSE. Even though Lucas and R.O.B. were pretty much the only ones to even have some sort of character development during that whole thing.

I never said I hated Lucas. Actually I really like his character. In my opinion he just doesn't fit Smash that well because of his tragic backstory.

 

[Deleted member]

I never said I hated Lucas. Actually I really like his character. In my opinion he just doesn't fit Smash that well because of his tragic backstory.

But Solid Snake is a pretty dark character and he is in SSBB.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

I never said I hated Lucas. Actually I really like his character. In my opinion he just doesn't fit Smash that well because of his tragic backstory.

But Solid Snake is a pretty dark character and he is in SSBB.

This is kinda getting off-topic, but I just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents. I respect your opinion, but I believe that Lucas is fits great in Smash. While a lot of the characters in Smash come from casual Nintendo games such as Mario or Donkey Kong, Lucas represents a different part of Nintendo: the games that focus more on story and character development. His inclusion shows the well-roundedness (if that's even a word) of Nintendo and the games they create. On another note, I wouldn't consider Lucas a "dark" character. While Mother 3 itself explores some darker and emotionally heavy themes, Lucas remains sort of the "light" in the depressing world in which he lives. Even with all of the tragedy that befalls him, he still manages to keep a sense of hope and optimism. He grows so much in such a short amount of time, and his strength is in a way, kind of awe-inspiring. I know I wouldn't be able to go through everything he did and still find meaning/purpose in life. I know I'm just another "Mother fan" who's defending a character who I care about, but I truly believe he has a place in Smash. If Snake can be in Smash, Lucas sure as heck can be. Rant done!

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Want:0%
I fu$#%@# hate this little sh#@.
Although the Mother series is legendary, unfortunately for me my first impression of this Jimmy Neutron lookalike was from Brawl's story mode, where he was a coward who did nothing but run from the bad guys and abandon Ness to die, even though his psychic powers basically make him a demi god and he could kill most living things just by pointing a finger at em. F$#@ Lucas.

I always looked at that scene less as Lucas abandoning Ness to die, and more Ness sacrificing himself to save Lucas. Seeing Wario holding up Ness's helpless body created some intense feelings of friendship within me. As in I could feel a strong bond of friendship between Ness and Lucas even though they just met. Truly one of the most emotional scenes in the SSE and definitely one of my favorites.

 

[Groose]

Lucas' Chance: 85%
Lucas gets two important boosts. The first is that he managed to grab a starring role in Brawl, thus giving him bigger Smash ties that must be cut. The second is that Sakurai is a huge Mother fan and Mother still has a big cult following. Even so, I'd see him being among the first cuts (far ahead of Ike and Lucario). Why? He's not nearly as unique as the others... and remember what most of the characters cut from Melee to Brawl were?

I do see Sakurai trying to put him in the game and probably succeeding. But still, I'd expect him to be low priority.

Lucas' Want: 15%
*Activates Flameshield*
I've said in the past that I'm open to cuts. Yet I've yet to give a veteran a low want percentage. Mostly this is due to the fact that the veterans we've rated so far have been highly unique fighters (Ice Climbers, R.O.B.) or legendary Nintendo characters (Ganondorf). Lucas is neither. He's not exactly a clone, but he certainly doesn't have a plethora of traits that separate him from Ness...

I've never really enjoyed playing as Ness. He was probably my weakest character of the original twelve. He's my second least played character in Brawl. Lucas, who plays similarly, is my least played character. I just don't like the way he plays.

I've never been able to play the Mother franchise; as such, I have no personal ties to Lucas. I do understand he has a backstory and it'd be a tragic thing to lose. Even so, unless if he can change his playstyle to be unique, I'm just going to have to say no. I'm very well aware that he could be given a different moveset, as he has different powers ingame. I don't see it happening, though.

Robin Prediction: 11.24%
Yeah... I'm just not seeing it. People have jumped on the Chrom is likely bandwagon here; Lucina did OK, and she'll probably do a lot better than the avatar.

Professor Layton x5

Noticed some inconsistencies in the nomination list.

Thanks. After I tally up the noms every day, I re-order them from greatest to least. I'm kind of hasty about that... but I usually catch my mistakes the day afterwards at the very least. I do appreciate you bringing it up.

I don't think it's dead. It's series director is someone who does not primarily do video games: Shigesato Itoi, and Nintendo has been very reliant on him for the basis of the games. It's dormant like F-Zero. If Nintendo ever makes a declaration that the series will no longer have any installments, then its dead. For example, across the other pond, the Playstation All-Stars series is dead by declaration.

I think popularity just gets a character to the door. It's the rest of the character's factors that get them in the game itself. So Robin is popular character within the FE franchise, probably third in Awakening. But out of the Awakening main characters, she offers the most different type of unique style that Sakurai is looking for in his characters.

Tactician Music:
All the music is from Awakening. Asterisk means my choices.
Run all you like--you can't escape fate
Id Purpose*
Id Darkness*
Here we are! The Shepherds' garrison*
Id Serenity*
Such bonds are the true strength of this army

Run all you like--you can't escape fate is from a the chapter before the last, as well as the pivotal chapter 23. Here we are! The Shepherds' garrison is the Shepherds' theme (Shepherds are all the playable characters) and The Tactician makes strategies for this team. Id Serenity is the theme you hear when a characters has an S support with the Avatar. Id Purpose and Id Darkness are the final chapter's map and the finals boss's theme respectively. Such bonds are the true strength of this army is the theme for normal support conversations (C through A).

Got it. I was going to ask for help about the Tactician... but now I don't need to!

 

[Groose]

DAY OVER

RETURN OF GROOSE ​

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Just a small nitpick, but the song for the Masked Man you have as "It's the End" is actually called "It is Finished"

Also, a piece of Xenoblade music for Shulk
Time to Fight

 

[Groose]

Lucas (Mother)
87.03% chance
80.04% want

The Mother franchise is strong on these boards. Lucas easily defeated the likes of Ike and Lucario in chance, then proceeded to defeat even Jigglypuff in want. Wow.

Today we'll be rating a character from another popular franchise: Robin of Fire Emblem. Will Robin be able to live up to the high standards set by Chrom and Lucina? Or will he/she flop to the level of Owain? We'll soon find out. Please leave your chance and want on Robin today.

Whooosh! Sonic the Hedgehog is speeding in for tomorrow. How will he do? Please predict how Sonic the Hedgehog will do in tomorrow's game. Doing so can earn you extra nominations. Alban712 has won five extra nominations today.


Today is the day in which I would normally add Owain to the renomination list. But I don't think that's a good idea, so I'm going to say screw it. Instead of adding Owain to the nominations list, I'm giving you all a bonus five nominations today. So everyone gets 10 nominations today; Alban712 gets 15 because he won the prediction today. These bonus nominations are only good for today; no recycling them for tomorrow. That'd be a bit too much of a headache for me to handle.

FInally, I can announce that this day will run for about six hours longer than normal. Instead of updating the day at 11:00 AM EST, I'm probably going to update at around 5:00 PM. I've had a shift in my real life schedule. Sorry for the inconvenience; I should still have the days updating as normal, but at a different time.

 

[SonicMario]

Robin

Likelihood: 10%

I'm not too much into FE. But considering I actually haven't heard of him until his name came up here is probably bad news for this character. I hear support for Chrom, Lucina, etc. His competition is just too strong I imagine

Want: 25%

Eh, I wouldn't hate any unknown FE characters from getting in. I'd get to know them through Smash, much like the previous reps.

Sonic prediction: 85%

I wish I could say it'd be higher but there's a fair amount of people who think he's gone simply because he's 3rd party and the notion that he was a Brawl exclusive "guest". Completely ignoring how he got in Smash in the first place.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Robin chance: 1%
There's absolutely no way Robin would get in when Marth, Ike, Chrom, and Lucina are each ten times more popular than Robin.

Robin want: 0.01%
Unless all the characters I just mentioned get a spot, there's no way I would want Robin.

Sonic the Hedgehog chance: 91%
(Hey Groose I'm going to be without Internet connection until Monday so if I win nominations for Sonic's prediction can I still use them when I get back?)

Anthony Higgs x10

 

[Deleted member]

Robin
Chance: 12%
I don't think that Robin is as popular as let's say Chrom or Lucina to be on the roster. I think that there is more support for those characters as opposed to Robin. He also suffers from competition from not only those characters, but also from Ike, Roy, and Lyn who are arguably more deserving to be on the roster than him.
Want: 0%
I don't hate him, but I don't really want him.
Sonic Prediction: 88.7%
FINALLY! His time has come! I think that out of all of the third party characters, he has the best chances. But, I'll save that for tomorrow.
Nominations: Bowser Jr. 5x
EDIT: Oh! Everyone gets 10 nominations today! In that case, give Wolf 5x as well.

 

[Groose]

(Hey Groose I'm going to be without Internet connection until Monday so if I win nominations for Sonic's prediction can I still use them when I get back?)

Of course. I'll be sure to post on your profile if you win in order to remind you.

Technically, when you win nominations you can use them whenever you want. If people don't use them in a day or two, they tend to forget. I have better things to do than track down every nominations winner that doesn't pay attention to my "start of the day" post. I have absolutely no problem doing it for you, though, because you clearly pay attention and you actually asked.

Enjoy your vacation or whatever is causing the lack of internet connection!

 

[NickerBocker]

Robin
Chance: 7%
If its specifically Robin, its a low chance. If its the custom "my unit" from FE, it might be higher than people realize. Its reoccurring and is in most of the games. Its pretty unique from the other FE characters that have been in smash.

Want: 85%
Yes please. Im in favor of any FE character that isnt a sword-lord

Sonic: 83.6%
There will be naysayers, but I feel most people will rate him fairly high.

Noms:
Rayman x7
Skull kid x3

Hey, 10 nominations! Its almost like I won or something

 

[Opossum]

Robin time!

Want: 50%
He'd be cool.

Likelihood: 5%

I find it highly unlikely that he'd be chosen when the competition is so fierce. Not even mentioning Marth, Ike, and Roy, he'd also need to compete with Chrom and Lucina for an Awakening character spot, which they are far more qualified to fill.

Predicting an 82% for Sonic

Nominating Falco x10 (lol at Owain)

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Robin: 5%
Want: 0%
Sonic: 85%
Nominate:
Roy x 10

 

[SchAlternate]

Robin
Chances: 6% - Egh. I think one Avatar-type character is enough (Villager). Beside the ungodly large amount of characters that have a higher chance of making it before him/her.
Want: 0% - Give me Roy or Lyn first, then I'll consider it.

Sonic the Hedgehog
Prediction: 92% - Some might deny him, but he's a no-brainer by many.

Nominations
GENESECT! USE EXTREMESPEED!!

Genesect x10

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 5%
Want: 0%

Sonic: 89%

Falco x10

 

[BlitznBurst]

Robin chances: 40%
Want: 30%
Sonic prediction: 87%

Skull Kid X10

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

Robin
Chance: 35% S/he was one of the main trio in the latest and most popular Fire Emblem, and is the only one of those three who can provide a really unique moveset. Sakurai did say that's what he looks for. However, Chrom and Lucina are both more recognizable.
Want: 100% I'm a huge Fire Emblem fan, but I really don't wanna see any more sword lords from the series. That's not the only weapon in the games, you know. It would represent FE far better to have a mage.

Sonic prediction: 92%

Nominate x5-Porky x3-Mona x2-Anna

Poor Owain.

 

[Pikachu ftw]

Robin 2% Many Fire Emblem characters are more well known and more wanted. like Marth, Roy, Chrom, Lucina, etc. So if they are going to have a new Fire Emblem character, it's gonna be Chrom or Lucina

Want 1% I don't care really. Rather have Chrom

Sonic 78% Sega wanted him in Brawl, why would they take him out
Nominations Genesect x6 Ashley (WarioWare) x4

 

[Seraphim.]

Robin

Chance: 16% Too much competition from not only the characters in his game but from Roy as well, the fact that he can also use Magic helps, but that's really it.

Want: 2% I'm not really fond of "avatar" characters

Sonic: 94%

Roy x5

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Robin chance 1%: He just doesnt have the priority to be put in, chrom is much more likely, and there is no way we will see both.
Robin want 60%: I would rather have him than chrom because he is a mage, and that will make it so fire emblem doesnt only have swords.
Sonic: 85%
Nominations
x3 Bomberman
x3 Skull kid
x4 Rayman

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Robin:

Chance: 4%
I don't have reasons against him/her per say, just no reason for their inclusion. Chrom/Lucina are more recognisable and far more important to the plot; and let's be fair, this is an RPG, plot's important (even in generally more light hearted ventures like Earthbound, Disgaea, Atelier and Neptunia serious plot stuff happens occasionally). All in all I don't think Robin would rep Awakening as well as the others, and I think he doesn't bring anything to the table a re-tooled Roy can't (seriously, he should have a ranged attack), and look at what he got! As a recognisable lead character! Who's a smash veteran! And one of the most called for characters in Japan!

Want: 5%
Slightly higher than his likelihood. I'd be vaguely interested to see the mix of magic and sword play, but I honestly Roy would be the better person for it, for popularity and representation reasons.


Sonic: 96%
If he weren't third party he'd be a lock, but people will be worried about Sega pulling him for some reason. I think most will see light, understanding that his Brawl appearance was great for Sega, and that Lost Worlds shows their happy to be cosy with Nintendo, but they will be some people voting lower.


Slime*10
(I was worrying about Genesect, but now I've been U-slurped by Lip, and probably Kamek goo-morrow! I'm not goo-ing to stand for this!)

 

[cephalopod17]

Robin's Chances: 20%
He/She has to face off with Chrom,Lucina and Roy for a FE spot. As unqiue as he/she would be I do not think it is happening.

Robin's Want: 40%
I have no want for Roy or Lyn and he/she would be unique. Too me Lucina would be way to much of a clone. Only thing holding Robin back in want is Chrom. I want him 60% more.

Sonic: 95%
With SEGA and Nintendo in a excluisve deal and Sonic being incredibly popular,he's going make it.

Nominations:
Genesect x9
Darkrai x1

 

[Starcutter]

Robin: 4% danananananana RO-BIN (isn't important in the franchise, so he probably wouldn't be in. there's a really small chance he would be considered, but probably would be left out even after that.)

want: 45% only because I can make really cheesy and unfunny batman jokes such as "HEY ROBIN, WHERE'S BATMAN?"

Sonic: 91.5%

Noms:
Kamek x9
Daroach (kirby)

oh jeez, the person I was going to nominate after kamek might pass him. wow, now I'm going to have to think of someone else. probably daroach, though. he's awesome.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likely hood 15%

Who's RObin (not talking about batmans buddy)

Want 0%
I have no care for robin

Nominations

Sonic x5
Mewtwo x5

 

[Erimir]

Robin/Avatar

Popularity: Seems to be well below that of Marth, Ike, Roy, Chrom, Lyn and Lucina. She doesn't even seem more popular than Tharja. At least in Shortie's poll. Japanese fans, as discussed before, want Roy and see Chrom as the most likely new rep.

Relevancy: She's the player character for the latest FE game. This does make her less defined as a character than the others though.

Design: She can be pretty much any class, which means she doesn't have to use a sword, and she can use magic and so forth. There's a lot more freedom with her move set. They could even just choose to give her moves on the basis of making her more different from the other SSB4 characters. This gives her some more interesting possibilities. But as such, a lot of her moves overlap with other FE characters. That, and the lack of specificity also makes it harder to say what a "fitting" move set would be. Final Smash seems a bit easier though (have a bunch of generic FE units attack!).

Roster and Competition: Fire Emblem, in my view, is unlikely to get more than 3 slots. And if there's 4 slots, I pretty much expect it to be Roy + someone else. And there's a LOT of strong competition for that slot. Roy and Chrom seem to be the most wanted and the most expected. But Lyn and Lucina are also fairly popular - more popular than Robin. And they both are important characters as well.

Robin chances: 4%
I don't remember exactly what I gave the others, but I'm pretty sure I gave enough that there's very little left for Robin. If Robin gets in, we'll know that unique move set potential is much more of what Sakurai is looking for. If she or Tharja got in and were revealed before much of the roster, it would significantly boost the characters that have truly unique move sets (it would hurt generic sword users like Samurai Goroh, for example).

Robin want: 50% (i.e. indifferent)
I'm not that into Fire Emblem, so I don't really care if we get a third rep and therefore none of them make it past indifference with me. But I'd rather it be someone who's not another sword-wielding lord (who probably has blue hair).

If they just gave him/her a sword, I would be really annoyed at them missing the chance to represent something else about Fire Emblem. Because when you play the game, there's a significant number of characters who DON'T use swords, and yet that's all we've seen. There are some other options to do that as well. I would strongly prefer that they make Robin female if s/he is added, since we need more females and there's nothing lost by doing so in this case.

Sonic prediction: 75%
This is a tough one. We don't really know what Sakurai's thoughts are about 3rd party characters in the game. Sure, he said they're special cases... but being veteran 3rd party characters can be called a special case as well. So people's ratings are going to have a bit more variance I think.

Nominations:
Mike Jones x10

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Robin:

Likelihood: 2%

Want: 0%

Sonic Prediction: 91%

Nominations:
5x K. Rool
5x Genesect

 

[jaytalks]

Robin/Avatar
Design: She can be pretty much any class, which means she doesn't have to use a sword, and she can use magic and so forth. There's a lot more freedom with her move set. They could even just choose to give her moves on the basis of making her more different from the other SSB4 characters. This gives her some more interesting possibilities. But as such, a lot of her moves overlap with other FE characters. That, and the lack of specificity also makes it harder to say what a "fitting" move set would be. Final Smash seems a bit easier though (have a bunch of generic FE units attack!).

gotta correct you on just on this erimir. like every other character in the game, she is capable of using a second seal to turning into any class in the game. but like Lucina and Chrom, there is an exclusive class called the tactician to her and anyone in her line. so it's not correct to say she lacks specificity; she has a specific class much like the lords. the second seals are considered non-canon within the game (hence the non-change in game art), so there would be specificity in her design in her tactician form. if lack of specificity applied to her, it would also apply to Lucina and Chrom since they can reclass as well, although Chrom has less options. as a tactician, she has two basic weapons: swords and magic. while swords overlap with most possible and current FE characters, magic overlaps with only one possible character (Micaiah), whose limited to light magic anyway.

 

[Smasher 101]

Robin's chances: 5%
Want: 30%

Sonic prediction: 93%

Falco x5
Meowth x5

 

[XenothiumX]

Robin
Likelihood: 15%
I would probably overlook this character if it wasn't for the Villager, another avatar character, getting in. Also, she/he can use methods of combat other than swords.
Want: 60%

Sonic
Prediction: 93%

Nominations:
Dixie Kong x10

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Robin/Avatar/My Unit/Tactician: 11%

Way too much competition. Robin's competition is his downfall.

Want: 75%
Robin would be pretty cool.

Sonic Prediction: 88%
Removing him would be suicide!

Nominations:
Snake x5
Mr. Game & Watch x3
Falco x2

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Robin chance - 40%

There's definitely potential for an upset with Robin, he's one of the central characters in the latest game and arguably more likely than Lucina. (at least as a lone fighter) Chrom is the only one who really stands in Robins way. I feel like people are outrageously underestimating Robin.

Want 85%

The idea of having a magic using fire emblem character is very appealing and Robin is really the best chance we have for that.

Sonic prediction - 80%

The only thing keeping me from thinking he's a shoe in is that we don't know how veteran 3rd parties will be dealt with...for all we know it will only be once off appearances.

Noms:
Isaac x2
Shulk x3

 

[Groose]

[quote="GuyWithTheFace, post: 15790972, member: 222956"
Poor Owain. [/quote]


I'm quite certain that he'll be OK. I doubt anyone will miss him, too.

 

[GuyWithTheFace]

I'm quite certain that he'll be OK. I doubt anyone will miss him, too.

He'd probably just be thrilled he's being referred to as the "Dark Lord." And yeah... I love his character, but hell, I've got over 300 hours logged in Awakening, and I'd still be pissed if he got in.