Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[SpaceJell0]

Because I've only played the DS one that was brought to North America, I only took music from there. But hey, if you have any more suggestions for music, I'll add them.

As for a Fatal Frame protagonist... for now, just use your common sense. Would the majority of people be scratching their heads and giving double 0's? If so, it's probably best to wait.




SSBF removed that rule when he made this version of the game, I believe. Either that or something else happened somewhere along the lines, as it's currently not on the books. Allow me to further check into the matter.




DarkKry is rather infamous on these boards for going to support threads and arguing against the characters. He/she isn't known for tact, but rather brutal honesty. So while the post is definitely heavily biased and debatedly even ignorant, it is serious.

The only time I've ever removed outliers from the game are on Owain's day and Sandbag's day. Owain had ftwo or three people with "Owain" in their name come and give him a 100% in chance; someone also gave Sandbag a 90%, a score indicative that they were trolling.

However, on most days, the outliers of haters and the outliers of die-hard supporters even things out. That should be the case today.

Good, thanks for being a good runner of the game Groose!

 

[Groose]

So much ignorance in one post...I remember SSBF had a rule against using "no moveset potential" as an argument. Does that still hold true, Groose?

SSBF removed that rule when he made this version of the game, I believe. Either that or something else happened somewhere along the lines, as it's currently not on the books. Allow me to further check into the matter.

I can now confirm that this was never a rule on RTC Returns! It was one of the rules that SSBF decided not to carry over from his previous RTC. I'm not sure why exactly he decided not to carry it over (especially given the fact that Wii Fit Trainer furthers its logic), but I can confirm that it isn't currently a rule.

Personally, I'd argue that the rule is there to deter posts like DarkKry's, but I personally hold no objections to moveset potential influencing a prediction. It is important to keep in mind that any character could be made playable if the powers at be want it to be so, but it is easier to make a character if they have an obvious movepool.

I don't think I'll move to re-implement the rule unless if posts such as DarkKry's become very widespread. I'm hesitant about rule changes unless if they're bugging a large amount of people. So far, breaking off of GameFAQs and temporarily halting obscure/troll nominations have been my only rule changes; the latter is more of a strong suggestion than an actual rule change. Both of these changes were done because a significant number of people were irked.

Good, thanks for being a good runner of the game Groose!

The community here is strong and I rarely have to really DO anything. It takes a half hour or so to update the day, but that's not really a problem.

The longest part of my day is usually updating the music section; I actually really enjoy that, though.

In a few weeks time, as the busy season strikes once again, my 'day-ending' schedule will probably switch to a different time of day; it may not be quite as clockwork as before. I'll still be able to keep things running pretty well, though. I'll address this later as things actually start to happen.

 

[DarkKry4]

DarkKry is rather infamous on these boards for going to support threads and arguing against the characters. He/she isn't known for tact, but rather brutal honesty. So while the post is definitely heavily biased and debatedly even ignorant, it is serious.

The only time I've ever removed outliers from the game are on Owain's day and Sandbag's day. Owain had ftwo or three people with "Owain" in their name come and give him a 100% in chance; someone also gave Sandbag a 90%, a score indicative that they were trolling.

However, on most days, the outliers of haters and the outliers of die-hard supporters even things out. That should be the case today.

Thank you for taking my post seriously. For me, Starfy is a very limited character and is like a step above Sandbag. I just can't see him being added.

If i were forced to give him a higher prediction score, it would be outrageous imo.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Because I've only played the DS one that was brought to North America, I only took music from there. But hey, if you have any more suggestions for music, I'll add them.

As for a Fatal Frame protagonist... for now, just use your common sense. Would the majority of people be scratching their heads and giving double 0's? If so, it's probably best to wait.

That's okay, other than Tone of the Ocean there's not really anything particularly worthy of note that I can think of, plenty of songs, but few carry between the games, and those that do tend to be other character's theme music.

And the question was more from an academic PoV, I love Fatal Frame (obvious with the avatar), but I don't think they'd be playable, and their chances of being ATs are dependent on Nintendo and Sakurai wanting to push the acquisition, and Grasshopper giving the go-ahead. I just wanted to know if I could make a vague vote like that, ahead of time.

Don't worry, I've decided to vote Tails and Knuckle after Slime, and maybe someone else between if there're still people I'm supporting, so Ruka/Miku/Mio are gonna have to wait a fair while before they get their chance.

 

[DukeofShorts]

Stafy chances: 25%
(S)he just doesn't seem like he could possibly be playable unless (s)he gets a bunch of weak punching/slapping attacks like Jigglypuff did.

Stafy want: 10%
I don't want another Jigglypuff-like character, especially one that doesn't fly.

Karate Joe prediction: 18%
Not entirely familiar with him but he looks pretty cool.

Anthony Higgs x5

 

[Opossum]

Stafy chances: 25%
(S)he just doesn't seem like he could possibly be playable unless (s)he gets a bunch of weak punching/slapping attacks like Jigglypuff did.

Stafy want: 10%
I don't want another Jigglypuff-like character, especially one that doesn't fly.

Karate Joe prediction: 18%
Not entirely familiar with him but he looks pretty cool.

Anthony Higgs x5

Just nitpicking, but if it helps, Starfy can glide. Just...not fly.

 

[Gam3rALO]

Starfy
Chance: 10%
I can see Starfy series getting represented but not over others like Issac from Golden Sun and Takamaru.

Want: 50%
It would be fun to play as but there are more characters that are better for a one rep series like Takamaru, which I would love to get in!

Prediction for Karate Joe: 23.55%

Nominations
Sylveon x5

 

[Groose]

That's okay, other than Tone of the Ocean there's not really anything particularly worthy of note that I can think of, plenty of songs, but few carry between the games, and those that do tend to be other character's theme music.

And the question was more from an academic PoV, I love Fatal Frame (obvious with the avatar), but I don't think they'd be playable, and their chances of being ATs are dependent on Nintendo and Sakurai wanting to push the acquisition, and Grasshopper giving the go-ahead. I just wanted to know if I could make a vague vote like that, ahead of time.

Don't worry, I've decided to vote Tails and Knuckle after Slime, and maybe someone else between if there're still people I'm supporting, so Ruka/Miku/Mio are gonna have to wait a fair while before they get their chance.

I'm sure there will be plenty of time before launch. We've probably got a few months left, and I think it would be a shame if we rated those characters before ones that people deem will have a solid chance.

Thank you for taking my post seriously. For me, Starfy is a very limited character and is like a step above Sandbag. I just can't see him being added.

If i were forced to give him a higher prediction score, it would be outrageous imo.

He can do a bit more than you give him credit for. However, Sakurai seemed to share your vantage point pre-Brawl.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Starfy isn't from Nintendo's most relevant unrepresented ip, and isn't a household name, but he certainly isn't obscure. From a first glance, he's in a better situation than fellow AT Saki Amamiya was, due to being more of a consistent staple within his series (he's the titular character, after all). He would also have a unique and charming moveset, which Sakurai is a sucker for. While requests for him aren't like they were pre-Brawl, he's pretty popular in Japan. I'm going to give the little superstar a very decent 33%. I can only think of one unrated character who I will give a higher rating to.

Starfy - 33%

predict Karate Joe - 4.1%

Ryu x5

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelihood: 35%
Want: 50%

Karate Joe: Who the hell is Karate Joe.
6%

Layton x5

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Starfy chance - 57%

Being an assist trophy (that walks on two feet) should be enough to convince people that he has some kind of chance. Having said that I think Starfy will be low priority and would only just scrape on to the roster.

Starfy want - 50%

Neutral on him, don't care either way.

Karate joe prediction - 3%

Noms:
Chibi robo x2
Robin x2
Shulk x1

 

[SchAlternate]

Starfy
Likelihood: 65-ish% - He seems to be pretty popular and have giant movepool potential, or so I've heard.
Want: 65% - I don't know that much about him, but he seems to be a pretty cool addition to the game. Plus, he's keyuuuuuuute...

Karate Joe
Prediction: ??% - ...

Nominations
Genesect x2
Meowth x2
Lip x1

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Starfy
Chance 30%: It was an assist trophy in brawl, but the fact that it was an assist trophy that basically couldnt do anything must show that Sakurai does not think its suitable to fight. There is only so many miscellaneous franchises that will make the cut, and shulk, isaac, and takamaru all out prioritize it.

Want 10%: basically the second half of my chance reason, that i would rather have other miscellaneous characters, and im not familiar with it's game

Karate joe: 8%
Nominations:
Bomberman x5 (wow so close, never thought it would get this far)

 

[Yams]

Starfy:

Likelihood: 38% Reps it's own series, was an assist, popular in Japan.
Want: 100% I love Starfy

Karate Joe: 9%

Duck Hunt Dog x5

 

[jaytalks]

starfy's likelihood: 25% Seems like a good choice for character add. But something about his design make me see him less as a character as opposed to Isaac and Shulk for example. I can't put my finger on it. Nor do I see him getting in before other characters. I think Sakurai could definitely make a moveset though.
Starfy: 5% Never played his game. His design doesn't really appeal to me. I would probably never select him as a character.
Karate Joe: 11.35%
Nominations:
Robin (Fire Emblem) x 5

 

[Erimir]

Starfy

Sometimes you may wonder "Stafy, why did you even come here?!" But that’s part of his charm.

Popularity: Pretty popular in Japan as far as new series. Not very known in the West and not as popular here.

Relevancy: He's has several games and while not the highest selling series, it's done alright (over 2 million in sales). Sales have been declining over the iterations though, and the last game was in 2008. He was an AT in Brawl, which helps.

Design: He doesn't have the greatest move set potential. Variations on spin attacks mostly, but there's enough there of course.

Roster and Competition: Pretty much like Saki, there's only so much room for new series and some expected old series. He would fit in pretty well though.

Legal issues: Like Isaac, Starfy is second party, and the copyright is not owned just by Nintendo. This isn't much of an issue though (his AT appearance shows that).

Starfy chances: 15%
I think he's around where Saki is (I probably would revise Saki's score downward if I did it again). Saki seems to have more potential as a fighter though. He's much more known in Japan, and it's unclear where the series is going. He has decent chances though.

Starfy want: 50%
Meh.

Karate Joe: 5%
Doesn't seem that well-known or interesting, so I'm just gonna guess low.

Nominations:
5x Mike Jones

____________

On the move set potential issue, I'd say that low move set potential (as well as moves that are very difficult to incorporate) is an argument against a character. But unless it's like, a character without limbs that never moves, I don't think you can say it's impossible. I'm sure Sakurai prefers characters where he doesn't have to invent most or all of the moves, but that didn't stop Captain Falcon or Fox.

 

[Primid]

STARFY

Likelihood: 20% He appeared as an AT in Brawl and has a decent amount of fans. Though there are a lot of bigger-name characters that I can see getting in before him.

Want: 2% In my opinion, there's nothing really appealing about him. His design is super simple and he essentially looks like a star-shaped Kirby. I feel like I'd rarely play as him, so I'd rather he just stayed as an assist trophy.

Nominations: Porky x5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Starfy

Chance: 30% - He was an assist trophy in Brawl so that helps. Of course, the same can be said for much of his competition.

Want: 10% - I haven't played any of his games and what I've seen of him in Brawl doesn't impress me.

Karate Joe Prediction: 11% - Not many seem on board for this character.

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likely hood 5%
Ill change my vote if you show me the proof besides assist trophy

Want 0%
I have no idea who this is

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Starfy. Likelihood: 50% Decent popularity, good moveset potential, but not very well known in some areas, but is well known and popular in Japan, like Fire Emblem once was.

Want: 80%

 

[ToothiestAura]

Starfy

Chances: 17-25%
Starfy has a reasonable chance. Starfy has pretty high Japanese popularity and that coupled with the fat that Starfy appeared as an AT in Brawl can only bode well for him. Has a lesser chance than some of the other Brawl ATs. Starfy would be pretty unique - I suppose. I've never played any Starfy games, but based on his Brawl appearance and fan movesets, I can say he would be.

Want: 12-15%
I said before that I've never played his games. But Starfy seems like an enjoyable character - sort of similar to Kirby who I love. Liked him somewhat as an AT, even though he wasn't very useful. His AT makes me want to play his game and made me like the character, so we can count it as one win for Starfy's AT.

 

[Starbound]

Starfy's pretty interesting because his trophy is considered to be Fighter Related. No other assist trophy has this tag on their trophy, so perhaps Starfy was playable at one point?

Chances: 40%
Wouldn't be surprised if it happened.

Want: 15%
Nah.

Nomz: Mach Rider x5

 

[ZecaOMestre]

Starfy

Likelihood: 40% - I'm giving Starfy a slight better chance than that from Saki. That because they're both AT so I guess they would be fighting for a spot as a playable character in the roster. However, I think Starfyis a more unique character than Saki is and he also is more popular

Want: 70% - He would be a really cool and different addition

Karate Joe: 9,4%

Nominations:
Blaziken x3
Prmid x2

 

[AfricanSanta]

Starfy-
Chance- 45%- His games are fairly popular.
Want- 40%- Not on my most wanted list, but I wouldn't be mad if he got in.

Karate Joe- 15%

Nominations:
Genesect x3
Mallo x2

 

[NickerBocker]

Starfy
Chance: 21%
He was an AT so that makes it interesting. What hurts him is he wont be recognizable with the more casual gamer, I think most will think hes a star from Mario Galaxy (I was one of those people ) Hes the star of his own series which helps too.

Want: 30%
Meh

Karate Joe: Pi (3.14159...)
He has alot of games, but isnt very recognized

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Starfy

Chance - 48% - Not the best shot, but I think there is more going for him than not. In fact, if memory serves right, while Sakurai was responding to a fan mail requesting Starfy, Sakurai said that he "hoped Starfy and Kirby would one day work together," so he may be a bit biased for him. At the very least, he would appear to appease Japanese fans who want a new series should Shulk, for whatever reason, not make it.

Want - 70% - I can't place my finger on why, but I'd like him to be in. I dunno, I guess it just seems like he would be fun to play with and just seems to fit in.


On a side note, I never noticed that I got extra nominations yesterday... this is kinda embarrassing... (I really should pay more attention to that, instead of assuming I never get it).
Anyway, because of that, I'll let someone else get a shot at guessing.

Nominations
Lip X6
Chibi-Robo X4

 

[YoshiandToad]

Starfy:

Liklihood: 40%
I don't know enough about Starfy really. Was never released in Europe, and only one game in America. That doesn't seem to count against a rep however; just see Lucas and at the time; Roy and Marth. Seems to have a decent fanbase in Japan, was popular enough to be an Assist, and would rep a Nintendo IP not currently repped. I guess decentish chances?

Want: 40%(also)
It's hard for me to get excited about any IP I haven't had the chance to play. When Lucas arrived on the scene I was very "Meh" at him getting in over a Golden Sun rep, and I remember not being able to comprehend who these two swordsmen were and why they were more relevent than say...Diddy Kong or Wario in Melee.
That said, if him being in Smash helps Starfy get games out here to the UK, I am all for it. I hate being ignorant about Nintendo these days.

Karate Joe: 8.3%

Nominations:
Meowth X 2
Kamek X 1
Duck Hunt Dog X 2

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Starfy
Likelihood: 15% I know he's a somewhat popular character, but I think there a lot better candidates than him.
Want: 3% Ehh...not really..he should stay an AT.

Karate Joe: 5%

Nominations: [edit]
Lucas x5
Snake x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Starfy: 45%

He was an AT and a fairly popular character. I'd say he's got a decent shot. Let's just see how he holds up against the competition.

Want: 65%
He'd be cool!

Karate Joe Prediction: 7%
Most people don't even know who he is.

Nominations:
Sonic x3
Snake x2

 

[SmashShadow]

Starfy: 30% He's got 5 games under his belt and has plenty of moveset potential but he's definitely not a top contender for the roster, especially after how he was shown off in brawl.

Want: 65% His games look fun...

Karate Joe: 9%

Impa x5

 

[TheDivineDeity]

Starfy
Chances: 65%
Want: 15%

Karate Joe: 90%

Impa 5X

 

[Smasher 101]

Starfy's chances: 40%
Want: 75%

Karate Joe: 4%

Meowth x5

 

[shinhed-echi]

STARFY:

Chance: 65%
To be honest, I don't know much about him, other than his role of being a puny Assist Trophy. But it seems he's popular, and being one of the most popular characters on the Japanese polls, means he's pretty likely.
However, I can't say how much Sakurai would be willing to go with a mostly Japanese character again (especially if he's also considering Takamaru). But since he put Marth and Roy in Melee, and Lucas in Brawl, Sakurai clearly wants to shove in at least one Japanese character. And Starfy could be it. (Though I am aware that his last game had a worldwide release, which makes him mostly Japanese)

Want: 5%
Just for the NEW character flavor, but I really think there are much better choices out there, that are 100% international.

 

[Groose]

This is your friendly neighborhood Groose with a little public service announcement:

I'm pleased to announce that, with help from Opossum, I've completely overhauled the music section. Every character now has at least three music tracks; in order for this to happen, the music section has nearly doubled in size. Furthermore, I've fixed about a half a dozen broken links to insure that the tunes be heard.


I highly suggest you check out the music section once more---many older characters have received additional tracks. Among my personal highlights---Dixie has received Bramble Blast, Little Mac has received Soda Popinski's Fight Theme (easily the most epic thing I have ever heard), Mewtwo now has music from his movie, and Chrom's section has been greatly expanded with a handful of tracks.


A few characters (mostly Fire Emblem ones) still need some additional love. I'd appreciate it if you checked out the music section and sent me your suggestions---I'll take them for any character, but I'd especially appreciate it for the ones that still don't have three musical tracks.

EDIT: Oh, and if you ever see a broken link, please report it to me. I'll fix it at my earliest convenience.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

This is your friendly neighborhood Groose with a little public service announcement:

I'm pleased to announce that, with help from Opossum, I've completely overhauled the music section. Every character now has at least three music tracks; in order for this to happen, the music section has nearly doubled in size. Furthermore, I've fixed about a half a dozen broken links to insure that the tunes be heard.

I highly suggest you check out the music section once more---many older characters have received additional tracks. Among my personal highlights---Dixie has received Bramble Blast, Little Mac has received Soda Popinski's Fight Theme (easily the most epic thing I have ever heard), Mewtwo now has music from his movie, and Chrom's section has been greatly expanded with a handful of tracks.

A few characters (mostly Fire Emblem ones) still need some additional love. I'd appreciate it if you checked out the music section and sent me your suggestions---I'll take them for any character, but I'd especially appreciate it for the ones that still don't have three musical tracks.

I might as well post these for tomorrow.
Karateka
Lonely Storm
Remix 10
Wish Can't wait for you

 

[Groose]

I might as well post these for tomorrow.
Karateka
Lonely Storm
Remix 10
Wish Can't wait for you

The Karate Joe section is going to be the longest yet... but it definitely deserves it.

Thanks for the support.

 

[Opossum]

Well, it'll be fitting that Rhythm Heaven has the most songs, at least.

Also, thanks for the shout-out, Groosinator!

 

[FalKoopa]

Starfy....

Likelihood: 25%
He has a decent chance of getting in. His series had 5 games in Japan, and one was released overseas. He was an assist trophy in Brawl as well.

Want: 70%
I'll be honest. I really want ALL the Brawl assist trophies to be playable.

Karate Joe prediction: 9%

Nominations: Ashley (WarioWare) x 5

 

[Forde]

Starfy
Chances: 15%
Want: 10%

Personally, I would just like to see him stay an AT.

Karate Joe: 40%

Nominations
Cloud Strife x5

 

[jaytalks]

Fire Emblem Suggestions, I wanted to give you some options. * indicates my choices
Lyn (All Music From FE7):
Girl From the Plain (Already listed, keep)*
Raising Spirits*
Precious Things*
Friendship and Adventure
Distant Travels*
Inescapable Fate
Most taken from Lyn mode in FE7, aside from Raising Spirits, which is particular good song in the game from a side chapter.

Lucina (All Music From Awakening):
You May Call Me (Possible Spoilers)*
Storm Clouds (Ablaze)
Duty (Ablaze)
Gods, have the Risen spread this far?*
Id (Sorrow)*
Id (Hope)*
The first is kind of spoilery, so you may not want to use it, but it's Lucina's most defining theme. Storm Clouds comes from a chapter in which you meet her. And Duty comes from a particular chapter which is very relevant to the 3DS stage of FE. Id (Sorrow) is played a very important scene. The Risen Spread theme is from a cutscene. Id (Hope) is from the boss theme from the Future Past DLC.

Owain (All Music From Awakening):
Chaos (Ablaze)
You don't know the first thing about peace. No man does!*
Annihilation (Galvanized)*
Main Theme (Spa)*Main Theme (Festival)
Chaos and Annihilation come from the Future Past DLC 2, which features Owain. The other one's name sounds like something Owain would say.

Ike:
Ike's Resolution (PoR)
Greil Mercenaries (PoR)*
The Devoted (RD) *
The Goddess' Rebuke (RD)
Fire Emblem Main Theme (RD)*
Ike's Theme (SSBB)*
The first is one Ike theme in PoR. The second is the theme of Ike's Mercenary group. The third is the group's theme in RD. The fourth is if Ike's fights a particular boss in RD.

I think Chrom should get the FE Awakening Main Theme instead of the Smash FE theme since the intro its tied to mainly focuses on him.

I had some that could work for any of the Awakening characters, but I wanted to save them for Robin.