...
Rather... spirited day, eh?
...
Right. Time to bring it to a close.
Tiki Chance: 30%
Well, I honestly think Anna has a 35% chance, so I'm not.
I think Chrom has an 80%, and Lucina and Robin are 50/50.
Just... how many Fire Emblem characters are you expecting in this game? That alone tells me that you expect four characters, and you didn't even mention other contenders like Roy, a Chrom/Lucina team, or Lyn. If you'd give them respectable chances, too, it would indicate a roster with five Fire Emblem characters.
Personally, I could see the roster having either two or three, with three being more likely by a small yet respectable margin. However, I see very little chance of getting four, and I consider it an impossibility to get five.
That said, it's time to get onto my ratings.
Tiki Chance: 1%
Competition. Pure, unadulterated competition. It is my opinion that Tiki is just completely outmatched and outgunned and doesn't deserve the ratings that people are pushing for today. Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe I'll have some crow to eat later, but I really don't care--I have evaluated the evidence, and my analysis has resulted in nearly dismissing Tiki entirely. Yes, I have done my research--over a half hour of it.
Tiki supporters have cited recurrence as one of the powerful reasons for why she should get in, yet I don't think this recurrence is enough to get her a spot. Yes, her role and that of Naga is actually pretty important to the plot of several games, but I still think she pales in comparison to an actual "main character." Someone from the trio of Chrom, Lucina, and Tactician just has a greater relation to the player than does Tiki. Please keep in mind this one essential fact--in Awakening, Tiki can die before you get a chance to recruit her, and it really isn't a big deal. The game moves on. Yet the characters who are the more important ones, the ones that have a solid chance at Smash... they differ from Tiki in this aspect. They are the ones to whom most people have a greater connection.
Tiki supporters also cite that she is popular. I certainly don't see Tiki support all over Smashboards, so I assume you mean that she's popular for her own series. However, is that true? Yes, but only to an extent. Let's take a look at this
OFFICIAL poll that was used to determine ACTUAL DLC for the game. Tiki placed a respectable sixth among females, but she's behind the likes of Tactician, Lucina, and probably Chrom. The characters who are more requested for Smash are also more popular in their own series.
So now we must debunk the final argument for the day--her uniqueness makes her the best and most obvious choice for a FE character. This argument, I admit, is something I can't entirely debunk and is the reason why I'm giving her a 1% instead of a zero. Even her uniqueness, however, won't be enough, methinks. She's just so outclassed in importance, popularity, and promotion by the Tactician and especially the Lords that she just doesn't stand a chance unless if the developers somehow have some sort of special plan or attachment to her--and this is something I cannot predict with the evidence I have been given.
Tiki Want: 0%
I'm not a very big Fire Emblem fan at all. Unfortunately, this means that I can't take character personality into my want rating because I really don't know them--and reading a Wiki page just isn't enough to grow attached to someone. All that I have to go on is what they may bring from a gameplay standpoint and the character's design. I'm not a huge fan of Tiki's design, so there is one point against her favor. Secondly, I could see her bringing a unique transformation gimmick--yet while that would be better than a clone or bland swordsman in my book, it wouldn't be a particularly good thing. A lot of work would be needed to make a character who I really don't care about, and that work could be spent on someone I'd prefer that will inevitably fail to make it. In general, I prefer my Villagers and my Warios--characters who are unique and have interesting moves, but don't take an extreme amount of effort--over the more gimmicky Olimars and Rosalinas. In the case of Fire Emblem, I see Tactician as the character who would be different yet not overly complex.
One thing I've said in the past is that I like surprises. This is true. I'd like to see some characters that people don't really expect to get in--I love Villager, and he is likely going to be my main. However, I would amend my statement to say, "I like surprises who are requested and can bring a lot to the table." Now, don't jump over me just yet, as that last bit may have been unclear. For one, Tiki could bring little else but her character--someone from a new series could bring a whole lot more overall content. Also, Tiki is well-liked among FE fans, but isn't really requested for Smash. Before you go and cite what today's want score will turn out to be, I will declare it artificially inflated. People have been told not to give her a 0% want, and many people are abstaining from her altogether because they really don't care about her.
@
andimidna
, it's all well and fine to try to get people to support your character, but I think you're going overboard; you're basically browbeating people into giving Tiki higher scores. You say that a 0% want is basically hating a character and that 50% is indifference, but I disagree. Want ratings have always been subjective, and I've always said that people can use whatever scale they please. The one I suggest on the OP actually has a 0% as "you don't care for this at all" and 50% as "part of you would like this, but part of you wouldn't like this." Well, I personally don't care at all, and I can see no way that I would really like it, so I'll give a 0%. Granted, this may change when I see gameplay and become adjusted to the character; I didn't want Rosalina beforehand and now think she'll be a pretty cool character.
The score I actually see as more important for us all to be on the same page for is the chance score. This game is all about rating chances, so we have to strive for doing that as well as we can. However, as I pointed out beforehand, your chance scores equate to expecting four or even five Fire Emblem characters playable. I speak not as the manager of this game but as another player when I say that I don't think you should be pushing everyone to rate the character higher when your ratings for the series as a whole seem almost ludicrously high. @
BluePikmin11
and @
Pacack
; you haven't been pushing Tiki quite as much, but you have been dismissing the low scores as mere bias or ignorance. I think that my low ratings--in both chance and want--have been substantially justified. It's good to debate with someone, but today I'm seeing little debating and more "pressuring." Sometimes, you just have to admit that each has his own opinion. If you feel the ratings are unfair, we occasionally have days like "Most Under/Overrated" to discuss that.
Whew. I just had to get that out of my system. Sorry if I was crude at any point. Now, I have a bit of a situation to remedy...
Zoroark: 10%
The most obvious path for Pokemon characters is Brawl Pokemon + Mewtwo, and this is what I have on my prediction roster. However, I'm not so confident that this is the scenario in which Game Freak sees the most potential. They've always mandated or approved multiple new Pokemon getting in every Smash game; I have some doubts that they'd just suddenly not push for another new character. Generation VI may be too late to get a new character from, and it doesn't have a strong new mascot anyway; this makes it more likely that a fifth generation Pokemon or a classic Pokemon would be chosen. I'm afraid I don't have everything worked out (Tiki rant and Direct hype stole my thunder), but I'd say something like this is now what I expect:
10% Victini
10% Zoroark
5% Meowth
10% other (new trainer or someone who'd heavily, heavily surprise me)
Zoroark has a pretty strong claim to the title of the most known Gen V character, but he's not the only contender from it. Victini is someone's (Masuda's?) favorite character, and he may also fill a purpose much like Zoroark.
Zoroark Want: 50%
I like Zoroark. I really do. He's on a lot of my competitive teams, and I love the mindgames he can create. I've argued before, however, and in great depth, about how his illusion ability wouldn't carry over well to Smash. I won't post it all here, but it sums up to this--Illusion would be pointless when your opponent can see your a Zoroark or gets a hit on you--this happens right away in a Smash match, so it wouldn't be as effective as in Pokemon. I also argued that it would take an absurd amount of work to get him to use his attacks with his hitboxes while disguised as other characters and maintaining his hurtboxes; I still see this as a problem, but not as big as before.
What has changed? I realized something--it doesn't have to work exactly as in the games. That may produce something lame, but creating a new set of abilities based on illusions designed with Smash in mind is still vey possible. It may not be as good as the real thing, but it could work.
I'm running out of time, but I'd just like to say I'm not dismissing Zoroark from either perspective as much as before because I've broken those chains of ignorance.
Ghirahim x5
DAY OVER
ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN AS WE TAKE A ONE WEEK DIVERSION
