Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[jaytalks]

Alph, Brittany & Charlie chances - 0%:
I dont think they will playable because the game was only released recently.

Alpha, Brittany & Charlie want - 0%:
No thanks.

Non character hanafuda rep chance - 1%:
I think that Nintendo has had a history... um... showcasing their history.

Non character hanafuda rep want - 100%
I would love anything that would help people learn more about Nintendo's history

Alexandra - 0.75%:
The character just doesn't really fit in smash
Sandbag - 0.23%:
...

Nominations:
Akari Hayami x 5

 

[Pacack]

Non-playable Hanafuda representation

I have to think that non-playable Hanafuda representation is practically guaranteed if a playable Hanafuda rep gets in. So I'm surprised that @ Pacack rated it so low. Have you soured on Daitoryo's chances?

This is assuming no playable character whatsoever. And something getting in regardless.


I have also soured on Daitoryo's chances, to be fair, even if it doesn't really effect this rating in particular. A big part of me is pessimistic over anything historical now. I mean, I would have added Daitoryo in Melee if I was wanting a historical character to surprise fans with (assuming I was in Sakurai's shoes). Then I would've added R.O.B. into Brawl, and then I would consider adding Mr. Game and Watch in Smash 4.

I mean, if the ridiculous character choices that we've had so far are historical, the most important periods to represent are (in chronological order):


The Hanafuda Era 1889–1956 (And onward if we count their current decks)
Longest era. Marks the literal beginning of Nintendo as a company and still goes on, although to a lesser degree.

The Toy (and Misc.) Era 1956–1974
Them dabbling in other areas since Hanfuda was becoming less and less popular. Finding a notable character from this era is possible, but it's stretching it. (Yes, this era includes the Love Hotels.)

Color TV Game Era 1970*-1980 (Proposed in 1970, but only began release in 1977)
Arguably even an era. Supposedly, after their semi-decent results with this (3 million in the series), "they went on to home consoles and arcade games". I doubt this, though, since the first one was sold after EVR Race was. Could be combined into the Arcade Era to compose a "Video Game Beginnings" Era. Note that this does not have any character whatsoever to work with. I'm pong-esque games only.

Arcade Era 1975-1985ish
EVR Race, Sheriff, Radar Scope, Donkey Kong, and Mario Bros. make their home in this era. Technically already kinda represented with Mario and DK themselves, but Sheriff is the obvious historical candidate (EVR Racer is the less obvious, but arguably more important one).

Game and Watch Era 1980-1991
Testing the handheld video game market to great success and becoming Nintendo's first major success (43.4 million units sold). This is basically what got them into the market. Keep in mind that, while the first arcade game Nintendo created was EVR Race in 1975, the first really successful arcade game they made was Donkey Kong, so Game and Watch is older if you exclude the less popular games.

NES Era and Revival of Video Game Market 1983-1985
The era Nintendo's really known for. This is when they released the Famicom in Japan and came up with the brilliant idea of R.O.B. to get the US interested in video gaming after the Video Game Crash of 1983.


By historical importance, it goes like this:
Hanafuda Era or NES Era and Revival of Video Game Market (Hanafuda Era for historically significant for Nintendo, but NES Era more historically significant to video games as a whole. Take your pick.)
Game and Watch Era or Arcade Era (Debatable. Largely comes down to whether stages, Mario, and DK are deemed sufficient for Arcade Era representation.)
Toy (and Misc.) Era
Color TV Gamer Era (if you can call it one)

The order we should have gotten them was either Daitoryo or R.O.B., then the remaining one, then Mr. Game and Watch or Sheriff. Even if we assume that only Mr. Game and Watch and R.O.B. are feasible fighters in Sakurai's mind, they should have happened in reverse. It just doesn't make sense. The only plausible explanation that I can think of for Mr. Game and Watch getting in over R.O.B. is that Sakurai thought of Mr. Game and Watch and just really wanted to try making him work. Historically, R.O.B. is way more important.


tl;dr I don't know what to think about historical characters in general right now. It's all so difficult to understand what Sakurai was thinking with the two we already have, and predicting him seems to be downright impossible.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Alph/Brittany/ Charlie Trio Chance: 35% I'm going to give a leg up to this trio and say they are a very plausible candidate for Smash 4. If Sakurai wanted unique characters, despite the franchise it was in and what the community says about it negatively, the only way I can see it happening is through this Pikmin 3 Trio. And if he's willing to get characters like Ridley for example in the game, then so can these 3. They aren't too new, just look at the Pikmin 3 stage we just had, I don't it's too late for them. And to be fair, no plausible Nintendo character should even get a zero.
Alph/Brittany/Charlie Trio Want: 100% Pikmin 3 was my favorite game, and I would love to see this happen sometime.

Hanafuda Chance: 45%
Hanafuda Want: 10% Meh, I prefer character since Daitouryou bring something new.

Sandbag Prediction: 1.3% Sigh..

Nominations:
x5 All Popular Newcomer Candidates in the Final Roster

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Alph/Brittany/Charlie Trio (RIP Character D. May your purple suit and green hair never be forgotten)

Chance: 20%- I wish this wasn't nominated as a trio, since Alph alone has much higher chances. He can easily have a unique moveset using the Rock and Winged Pikmin, without using Olimar's specials. Like, he wouldn't have Pikmin following him, but he would use them in attacks. But as a trio, it just seems like they'd be hard to develop(Although I would love if they like stacked on each other's shoulders as one character )

Want: 80%- It'd be cool, but I'd prefer Louie, Plasm Wraith, and Alph alone. (Vehemoth Phosbat is pretty dope as well. Might make a support thread for it.) And you know, Pikmin 3 is my favorite game of all time.

Hanafuda

Abstain

Sandbag Prediction: 2%- Don't know what to do here. I mean if @ Mega Bidoof shows up....

Nominations

Petey Piranha x5

 

[Mega Bidoof]

*looks at OP*
HOLY CRAP TOMORROW IS SANDBAG DAY!!!!

Drake's Crew Chance: 10%
A second Pikmin character's chances are automatically pretty low, though if one gets in, it may very well be this one. Maybe in SSB5 Pikmin will get a newcomer. Though I feel that if Pikmin has 2 characters, Animal Corssing deserves the same.

Drake's Crew Want: 50%
Could definitely offer a more unique Pikmin-playstyle than Olimar. Would be very interesting. Maybe the stats could change with each fighter (Alph = Strength. Brittany = Speed. Charlie = Defense). Not to mention they can use Rock and Flying Pikmin! Ih the uniqueness!


Non-Character Hanafuda Chance: 40%
Depends what you mean by "representation." If that could mean a simple trophy, then I say yes. It could represent Nintendo's origins, without taking a whole slot on the roster. I'd buy it.

Non-Character Hanafuda Want: 5%
I'd much rather have Daitoryo. He could bring a lot new to the table, and even have some cool mind games, since Hanafuda is a card game.


Sandbag Prediction: 0.5%
As much as I love him and think he has a real chance, many others don't agree. While I'll bring up his ratings a decent amount, everyone else will just bring him down. I'll get more on why he has a chance tomorrow, when the day finally comes.


Nomination: Since Sandy's day is tomorrow, I'm gonna have to say X5 Roy

EDIT: @ Pacack just told expanded on what "non-character representation" means, so I am bumping up my Hanafuda chance from my original 30% to 40%

 

[Chandeelure]

Bias, where?

Seriously, it is a TRIO of three UNPOPULAR characters controlling MORE characters of a franchise that DOESN'T NEED more representation and it also has COMPETITION (Louie and Solo Alph).

Blue, you have to stop with your "it can be unique so that means it is likely" logic.

 

[Pacack]

Non-Character Hanafuda Chance: 30%
Depends what you mean by "representation." If that could mean a simple trophy, then I say yes. It could represent Nintendo's origins, without taking a whole slot on the roster. I'd buy it.

Non-Character Hanafuda Want: 5%
I'd much rather have Daitoryo. He could bring a lot new to the table, and even have some cool mind games, since Hanafuda is a card game.

Anything non-character. Trophies, stickers, stage appearance, cameo on something else, anything.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Remember, popularity doesn't matter, and is only a small factor of the character selection process.
And the doesn't NEED is only your opinion.
Competition isn't that much, since solo Alph and Louie would likely be semi-clones in the last-minute.
Since the character is unique, it would be above other semi-clones, beating out the two blue captains.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Anything non-character. Trophies, stickers, stage appearance, cameo on something else, anything.

Ok. Considering stickers and little cameos count, I'm bumping up my chance rating a bit.
Thanks for telling me.

Bias, where?

Seriously, it is a TRIO of three UNPOPULAR characters controlling MORE characters of a franchise that DOESN'T NEED more representation and it also has COMPETITION (Louie and Solo Alph).

Blue, you have to stop with your "it can be unique so that means it is likely" logic.

That "doesn't need more representation" part is technically an opinion, which means it is technically bias.
I don't think it needs a newcomer either, but just saying.

 

[andimidna]

Nope. Sakurai can reveal anything whenever he wants to.

Hype for Wonder Red has gone down but he's still just as viable.
Sakurai could reveal him at E3.
Sakurai could keep him secret.
Or maybe he's just not in the game. (Which has been the most likely possibility always)
Who knows?
Time means absolutely nothing, and it doesn't matter how your biased eyes look at it.
Anything could be revealed at any time.
Sakurai doesn't have to wait to reveal a newcomer in a direct, there's a chance we could get a newcomer tommorow.
A very low chance, but the same chance as it was on Friday, on the same chance it will be on Tuesday.
Since 0 newcomers have been revealed on the exact day of a release, and a DK character would have been extremely predictable, no.
Simple as that. Nope.

There's no math to it. Anything is possible. And time doesn't affect scores.
Little Mac taking priority over Dixie makes sense in my mind. And we've had constant reveals, so I'm not sure where they could have even fit Diddy. You also have to consider his data might not have been fully complete in 2013. We don't know because we CAN'T know.
And these assumptions are illogical. Seeing as more often than not, a character will not get revealed on the exact day of a release.

There have been too many cases of major releases not getting a character, and random reveals to think your theory is accurate.

What if Tropical Freeze gets DLC levels? That release would be a fine time for Dixie...
There's too much unknown to make such a statement.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Drake's Crew Chances: 0%. Louie and Solo Alph. That is all.
Want: 5%. Again, Wing and Rock Pikmin, but overall, no.
Hanafuda Chances: 5%. If it's not related to games (which it isn't) , I doubt it.
Want: 45%. However, it does seem relevant enough to give it a mention somewhere, IMO.
Alexandra: 10.6%. I don't expect it to be high.
Sandbag: 0.2%. ... No comment...
Dedede Arena X2
Leif X2
New Fourside X1

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Pikmin Trio Likelihood: .5%
Want: 40%

Hanafuda Likelihood: 3%
Want: 50%

Alexandra: 9.5%
Sandbag: .035%

Unlockable Newcomers x5

 

[Erimir]

This is assuming no playable character whatsoever. And something getting in regardless.

Ah, ok. It won't change my rating since I was already assuming Daitoryo was basically not gonna happen.

[discussion of eras]

I'm also not at all convinced there's really a distinction between "historical" and "retro". R.O.B. is from the NES and can be considered retro just as much as Ice Climbers - they even released on the exact same date in North America! Game & Watches were still video games, albeit primitive, and there had also been a few Game & Watch Galleries on the Game Boy, so I don't see why he's not just retro either.

Once you get rid of that distinction, it seems to me that characters from the following periods are more likely than the small number of candidates from the eras you cite (Sheriff, Duck Hunt Dog, Daitoryo)

late NES: 1986-1991
SNES: 1990-1996
early Game Boy: 1989-1994

And it's even possible we could get something from these later two eras:
late Game Boy: 1994-1998
early N64: 1996-1998

Remember, popularity doesn't matter, and is only a small factor of the character selection process.

And where, exactly, does Sakurai say anything remotely resembling this?

And sorry, but 35% is just ridiculous. I'll eat my hat if Pikmin gets a second rep at all, much less one that's three times the work. Are you willing to put money on that with 2:1 odds?

Sakurai can reveal anything whenever he wants to.

Nobody said that Sakurai/Nintendo can't reveal things whenever they want to.

But it just so happens that "when they want to" isn't determined randomly.

Time means absolutely nothing, and it doesn't matter how your biased eyes look at it.

You're free to assert that, but it's just delusional.

Because it has NOT been the case that reveals have happened randomly. Here are the newcomer and Dojo reveals so far:

Villager - E3, special occasion. New Leaf launches around the same time in two markets (NA, EU)
Wii Fit Trainer - E3, special occasion. As Groose pointed out, Wii Fit U was meant to launch much closer to E3 than it ended up launching.
Mega Man - E3, special occasion. Most hype-building character was shown at the most hype-building time. Who knows how much attention Mega Man stole from Sony and Microsoft stories? That was big news.
Olimar - Launch of Pikmin 3 (JP)
Luigi - Nintendo Direct. Launch of Mario & Luigi: Dream Team (NA)
Peach - Now assumed to be preparation for Rosalina's reveal, but that covers any time before December, so the specific timing is random.
Toon Link - Launch of Wind Waker HD (JP)
Sonic - Nintendo Direct. Soon before launch of Sonic: Lost World
Marth - Random.
Rosalina - Nintendo Direct. A month after launch of Super Mario 3D World, where she was a hidden character.
Zelda - Launch of A Link Between Worlds (JP)
King Dedede - Launch of Kirby: Triple Deluxe (JP)
Lucario - Anniversary of Brawl (JP). Lucario was a Brawl newcomer, but there was no particular reason to choose him over another Brawl newcomer (the fact that only one Pokemon character had been revealed at that point might be related)
Little Mac - Nintendo Direct. Punch-Out's 30th anniversary, as the original Punch-Out!! arcade game had launched in February, 1984 (JP). Note that the newcomer artwork for Little Mac matches the original Punch-Out!! arcade game.
Diddy Kong - Launch of Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (NA)

So, let's see, "time means absolutely nothing" compared to:

66% of character reveals being related to a game release, with an additional 13% being related to anniversaries. For 80% "non-random".

Even if we say that Rosalina and Wii Fit Trainer don't count, it's still 66% related to a game release or anniversary.

Excluding E3, the numbers are 83% with Rosalina, and 75% without her.

Sakurai doesn't have to wait to reveal a newcomer in a direct, there's a chance we could get a newcomer tommorow.
A very low chance, but the same chance as it was on Friday, on the same chance it will be on Tuesday.

Correct. But if you're speculating that this, which we have no precedent for, is a possibility, then you should also concede that he might reveal a newcomer to coincide with the launch of a new game.

Which makes the following statement:

Since 0 newcomers have been revealed on the exact day of a release, and a DK character would have been extremely predictable, no.
Simple as that. Nope.

just self-contradictory.

And yeah, it's not like Sakurai has done anything predictable with any the previous reveals...*looks over list* Oh wait, that's exactly what he's done.

There's no math to it.

If there's no math to it, then you should disagree with the very premise of this game. We're giving numerical values to characters' chances.

If I said, "There's a 50% chance that my friend will be late for dinner", it does not mean that I think my friend used an equation to decide when to arrive. It would be ridiculous to think that. That is basically what you're doing when you whine about how I used "fancy" math.

And we've had constant reveals, so I'm not sure where they could have even fit Diddy.

Diddy could've been revealed in August (5 weeks between Luigi and Peach), October (5 weeks between Sonic and Marth) or November (6 weeks between Marth and Rosalina). He could've been revealed instead of Marth or Lucario. It's not at all hard to think of a good place for him.

You also have to consider his data might not have been fully complete in 2013. We don't know because we CAN'T know.

Well, this is why these things are only possibilities, not hard facts. That does not mean that you cannot reason about them and consider what sort of effect they might have.

What you're doing, as I explained earlier, is claiming that you're being "neutral" but really taking a position. You're saying that it's impossible that there's a scenario where these facts have hurt Dixie's chances.

My whole argument has been that since we can't know, you have to consider all the scenarios when you rate them. Which means that her chances have been hurt.

Seeing as more often than not, a character will not get revealed on the exact day of a release.

On what basis do you say that?

There have been too many cases of major releases not getting a character, and random reveals to think your theory is accurate.

Two or three random reveals, not actually that many.

And WHICH major releases?

Here are the games that have released in all regions, and had revealed characters or assumed veterans that were not yet revealed, but got no reveal:
Game & Wario - very close to E3, but a fair point
Pokemon X & Y - valid
Mario & Sonic at Sochi - Yoshi has his own game. Wario was possible but...
Super Mario 3D World - Rosalina wasn't revealed right then, but she was a month later.

So that's it. Four games.

Look back over the list I gave above. After the Dojo launched, there were seven major releases with reveals, compared to only four without.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Remember, no Yoshi for New Island.

 

[Smady]

Alph, Brittany and Charlie

0% Chance: Too difficult to make assuming they all are separate characters in a trio, when Ice Climbers is complex enough. There is also no real reason to make a team like that out of these characters, they operate as individuals in Pikmin 3 that you switch to and from, putting them all together makes no sense. How it'd work - eighteen Pikmin, six shared, who is in control - only confounds the problem.

That's ignoring the fact Pikmin doesn't need one more rep, let alone three. A single new Captain is more than fine for this series and that is likely not going to rep it using enough new content to justify another one after Olimar. I've said it before in this thread: Olimar is a very good rep for Pikmin, there is little room to improve. This route doesn't solve that problem unless Sakurai has a genius idea to make it work, and looking at how Pokémon Trainer turned out, I have serious doubts.

1% Want: The sheer chaos of a three character Pikmin rep obviously has some appeal, but no, for the most part I can't imagine how it'd work in any way that is better fun than simply one Pikmin newcomer that has a twist on the archetypal gameplay epitomized by Olimar. This would also be such a huge waste of development time and roster space, as others have said a Pokémon Trainer but for generally similar characters.

Hanafuda

25% Chance: Representing Nintendo's past in the cards industry, this is a deserving part of their history to appear in any Smash Bros game. I'm shocked it has yet to appear in some form when we have Game&Watch, ROB and other iconic reps as playable. You'd think Sakurai would throw in a casual mention, as a sticker or heck, a trophy, a little disrespectful that he hasn't put in anything.

I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, but at the same time I wonder if there is a reason he never bothered with the cards. Perhaps he feels, or the conduct at Nintendo infers, that this era of their company is not connected to their current video game business. The fact we've yet to see them suggests that Sakurai may not know or care about the cards.

100% Want: I'm indifferent to it getting an assist trophy or any of the ancient parts of Nintendo getting a whole newcomer. It's a fun idea, but not one that necessarily merits a good set in the same way Game&Watch or ROB did, however it is remarkable it is not represented one bit. It's frankly a bit insulting to Nintendo's history not to have anything on the series of cards.

I'd really like to see some stickers or a trophy to represent Hanafuda. It's a very small time commitment and would teach players of the beginnings of Nintendo that is largely overlooked, in the same way Game&Watch was before he became a newcomer. I think it'd be a worthwhile and humbling entry that casts a deserved spotlight on what built this company in the 19th century. No harm learning some history.

Alexandra Prediction: 3%
Not a known entity for most of the posters here, but Eternal Darkness truthfully is not a good fit for Smash Bros.
Sandbag Prediction: 0.5%
This was de-confirmed with Little Mac's trailer as far as I'm concerned and is far too self-indulgent as a historical rep.

Arino (Retro Game Master) x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/32197/t739252-translation-of-sakurais-journal/

#201-210: Sakurai says in response to an email asking only for well-known characters (like Mario, Link, etc.) to appear in SSBB, "Asking only for popular characters to appear in Smash...doesn't get me excited"

This is assuming that not all candidates will be popular ones.

 

[Erimir]

Remember, no Yoshi for New Island.

It hasn't launched in Japan yet, and it seems that Japanese release dates are more important than American ones. It won't launch in Japan for at least a couple months.

And at any rate, we're still in the launch window.

http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/32197/t739252-translation-of-sakurais-journal/

#201-210: Sakurai says in response to an email asking only for well-known characters (like Mario, Link, etc.) to appear in SSBB, "Asking only for popular characters to appear in Smash...doesn't get me excited"

This is assuming that not all candidates will be popular ones.

That doesn't mean that "popularity doesn't matter", which is what you said.

It doesn't even come close to it.

It means that he doesn't only want to put in the most popular and well-known characters. It does not mean that unpopular or obscure characters are on equal footing with popular and well-known ones.

The evidence from who has been put in Smash 64, Melee and Brawl is that popularity matters quite a lot.

 

[Aqua Rock X]

I didn't even realize today is a Bluepikmin11 day. Heh. Oh, Blue, what would we do without you?!

A/B/C

Chance: 1% - Definitely Exceptionally Farfetched...

Want: 20% - ...Greatly Hilarious Idea!!!

NON-CHARACTER HANAFUDA REPRESENTATION

Chance: 30% - It is fairly decent.

Want: 50% - Indifferent.

Alexandra prediction: 3% - ???

Sandbag Prediction: 1% - RTC's first troll character day returns!!!!

Nominations:
Other M Ridley x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Popularity is indeed a factor when it comes to newcomer selection. It was the primary reason Sonic was chosen. along with characters like Wario as well. It's also clearly obvious that moveset and gameplay potential is a major factor, but I doubt a character such a Rosalina would have been chosen if she wasn't as recurring or popular as she is. She had those two factors, plus, in Sakurai's eyes, stood out more among other Mario characters when it came to potential.

Rosalina and the Luma may be a bit complicated, but combining Pokemon Trainer or the Ice Climber's gimmick with a character like that of Olimar seems like a complete programming mess. Not to mention, none of the possible Pikmin newcomers can really offer that much gameplay and moveset-wise.

 

[Erimir]

But hey, maybe a Geno and Mallow tag-team is likely. It would be so unique.

Or maybe Petey Piranha and Birdo tag-team. It could happen.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Except Alph/Brittany/Charlie are an actual canon trio with plausibility.

 

[andimidna]

But hey, maybe a Geno and Mallow tag-team is likely. It would be so unique.

Or maybe Petey Piranha and Birdo tag-team. It could happen.

I actually want a King Boo and Petey Piranha team now

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Would love Petey actually.

 

[Headcrab Jackalope]

Would love Petey actually.

Yep, still my most wanted Mario newcomer. He's the best. And really, he doesn't have a ton of competition(for Smash 5 at least). Bowser Jr. and (maybe) Toad are his only real competitors.

(All this "Pikmin newcomers can't be unique" thing is really making me go insane)

 

[NickerBocker]

A(lph) B(rit) C(harlie), its easy as 1 2 3.
Chance: 0.1%
Want: 10%

Not a big fan of multiple characters, especially from a series that would most likely not bring anything new to the table, with the exception of winged and rock Pikmin. I don't believe that Pikmin really needs another character, as I firmly believe that there would be very limited uniqueness from person to person.

Hanafuda Representation
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

I don't see why it couldn't happen. I mean, it is Nintendo's roots, and they do love reminding people that they have been around for a very long time. They feed off of Nostalgia, and they have been giving those cards out to Club Nintendo members for the last little while. Also, I'm pretty indifferent to stuff like trophies, so a rep would be fine.

Alexandra: 1.7%

Sandbag: 0.76%

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[Karafuru]

Pikmin Trio:
-Chance: 2%
I don't see why Sakurai would devote the amount of time necessary for a complex character such as this. Especially even more so with a series that has the perfect representation already.
-Want: 0%
I would much rather he gave time to other characters so that he could work on other characters. I enjoy the Pikmin series and I feel like it was satisfied perfectly with Olimar. It also doesn't give much room for another captain to differentiate themselves other than Rock and Flying Pikmin.

Hanafuda Representation:
-Chance: 50%
I think it has a fair chance, it being Nintendo's roots and all. The only unsettling part about it is that it has not been included in Melee or Brawl. Though it still has a chance seeing as how there was a new deck recently.
-Want: 80%
Sure! I would love Hanafuda to receive a trophy or sticker! It definitely deserves it. Though, I won't be heart broken or crushed to see it not.

Alexandra: 0.6%
Sandbag: 1.7%(only because some people giving it such a ludicrous score as 100 for the lols of it.)

Noms: 5x Jack Frost (SMT)

 

[andimidna]

So, if Little Mac is taken off the charts for being confirmed... Waddle Dee makes the chance chart and Robin makes the want chart?

 

[Groose]

Update tomorrow.

So, if Little Mac is taken off the charts for being confirmed... Waddle Dee makes the chance chart and Robin makes the want chart?

I'm not quite sure. I actually forgot to comment on this yesterday; @ FalKoopa ; I suppose you could revise them not to include Little Mac. I personally prefer them the way they are myself; however, enough people have already spoken to say that they'd be better updated.

Right, okay, so from what I've got from Erimir, and after reading the reply above to andimidna, I'm happy to say it's a simple misunderstanding(at least to me);

What it sounded like originally; "Dixie Kong is highly unlikely now due to missing out the direct around Tropical Freeze when we got Little Mac. However this boosts K. Rool's chances because he wasn't in the game." Which obviously makes no sense at all.

What was meant: "It's possible that we're less likely to receive more than one DK newcomer because of the missing of a reveal for one around Tropical Freeze. It hurts everyone DK newcomer's chances." Is that right Erimir?

Yeah, what you've said there pretty much nails it for me. For a while I was looking at things and going, "I think Dixie's long-term importance, moderately-high popularity, and importance to recent Donkey Kong games, and the upcoming opportunity for promotion will give her the edge over K. Rool's long-term importance very-high popularity." When you take away the "upcoming opportunity for promotion" and replace it with "failure to achieve promotion," I find that K. Rool manages to regain the edge in that duel because he now has more advantages. Dixie is definitely still a possibility and remains somewhere in the top fifteen most likely newcomers in my eyes. The only difference is that she's fallen from "could go either way" to "has a strong shot, but I'm not going to expect her."

Seriously, it is a TRIO of three UNPOPULAR characters controlling MORE characters of a franchise that DOESN'T NEED more representation and it also has COMPETITION (Louie and Solo Alph).

I pretty much agree here; mostly with the fact that such a character would be a technological marvel. @ BluePikmin11 : You keep saying that something like this is comparable to Ridley programming-wise. I agree that Ridley would be a very difficult to character to design and program for Smash, and I'd place him in the proverbial "A-Tier" for the amount of effort required to make feasible. However, a trio of Pikmin wielding characters wouldn't be in this "A-Tier;" they'd be locked away in the "SSS-Tier" because something like this would be a lot harder than making Ridley playable. This is a combination and multiplication of two of the four most complicated characters in the game, being Olimar and Pokemon Trainer.

I have a similar argument with your other favorite character, Prince Sable. Yes, he'd be unique; however, the work put into making him transform into a whole bunch of animals would be incredible amount of effort for the uniqueness it would bring. You have to think about "uniqueness efficiency" a bit more. I like your nomination for Kawashima a bit more because, while he'd require floating and detachable hands to pull off, he'd get more "uniqueness mileage" for the effort put into him.

 

[Smady]

One thing I'd like to see just as a joke, is a top ten for least wanted and least chance.

Probably not the first to come up with the idea and I may have missed something about it in the OP, but if not, think it'd be fun.

 

[Chandeelure]

Bandana Dee in the two Top 10?

 

[andimidna]

So I guess it's about time to re-vote Bandana Dee

I change my noms to:
x2 Tiki
x3 Bandana Waddle Dee re-vote

 

[LoneKonWolf]

So I guess it's about time to re-vote Bandana Dee

and thus, the entire rate their chance form as broken out of order, and chaos roams the pages as the members freak out over one murmured sentence, and continue to lose what little sanity they have left, all for the sake of the character who shall not be named to be re rated
an dark age moves forward now, from this very momment

 

[Deleted member]

x3 Bandana Waddle Dee re-vote

Don't you DARE renominate Bandana Dee! For the sake of everyone in this thread, don't nominate him! SAVE EVERYONE'S SANITY!

 

[andimidna]

MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Honestly, before the charts are updated, it might be in our best interest to re-vote characters like Takamaru, Chrom, Waddle Dee, Dillon, Paper Mario, Banjo-Kazooie, Bomberman, Robin, and Isaac....

We should also re-vote Impa when Diddy Kong isn't here

And Miis, Pacman, Dixie, and King K Rool...

all in the same day
the world will explode

 

[Deleted member]

MUAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Honestly, before the charts are updated, it might be in our best interest to re-vote characters like Takamaru, Chrom, Waddle Dee, Dillon, Paper Mario, Banjo-Kazooie, Bomberman, Robin, and Isaac....

We should also re-vote Impa when Diddy Kong isn't here

And Miis, Pacman, Dixie, and King K Rool...

all in the same day
the world will explode

But the characters you've mentioned aren't worth re-rating.
We don't need to re-rate Chrom, Bandana Dee, Banjo, Robin, and Impa when nothing has changed for them.
We don't need to re-rate Bomberman as we've pretty much established that his chances are low and if we get a Konami character, it will probably be Snake. Pac-Man shouldn't be re-rated because we've already established that he is rather likely to get in this game.
The only characters worth a re-rate are Takamaru for the Captain Rainbow reference, Dillon since he is overrated as heck, Isaac because his chances might be affected by the Little Mac reveal, and Paper Mario since he was surprisingly not rated after the Rosalina reveal.

Can we wait and hold those characters off for a while? Especially when there is zero reason to rate Bomberman, Bandana Dee, Banjo, Pac-Man, Chrom, and Robin again.
I especially don't want to re-rate Bomberman. Some of those zeroes made me sad.

 

[andimidna]

But the characters you've mentioned aren't worth re-rating.
We don't need to re-rate Chrom, Bandana Dee, Banjo, Robin, and Impa when nothing has changed for them.
We don't need to re-rate Bomberman as we've pretty much established that his chances are low and if we get a Konami character, it will probably be Snake. Pac-Man shouldn't be re-rated because we've already established that he is rather likely to get in this game.
The only characters worth a re-rate are Takamaru for the Captain Rainbow reference, Dillon since he is overrated as heck, Isaac because his chances might be affected by the Little Mac reveal, and Paper Mario since he was surprisingly not rated after the Rosalina reveal.

Can we wait and hold those characters off for a while? Especially when there is zero reason to rate Bomberman, Bandana Dee, Banjo, Chrom, and Robin again.
I especially don't want to re-rate Bomberman. Some of those zeroes made me sad.

I especially agree with what you said about Paper Mario and Dillon. I was so surprised to see Dillon even close to the top... he's like #15 on both lists.
I'd also expect Paper Mario to go down to almost Toad level.
I'll nominate them and Captain Rainbow on the next rating.
Hopefully that will be soon....
EDIT: Just remembered it was Sunday, damn.

 

[PK_Wonder]

ABC - 0.05%
Hanafuda representation - 40%

predict
Alexandra 1.5%
Sandbag 0.5%

Flynn x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I pretty much agree here; mostly with the fact that such a character would be a technological marvel. @ BluePikmin11 : You keep saying that something like this is comparable to Ridley programming-wise. I agree that Ridley would be a very difficult to character to design and program for Smash, and I'd place him in the proverbial "A-Tier" for the amount of effort required to make feasible. However, a trio of Pikmin wielding characters wouldn't be in this "A-Tier;" they'd be locked away in the "SSS-Tier" because something like this would be a lot harder than making Ridley playable. This is a combination and multiplication of two of the four most complicated characters in the game, being Olimar and Pokemon Trainer.

I have a similar argument with your other favorite character, Prince Sable. Yes, he'd be unique; however, the work put into making him transform into a whole bunch of animals would be incredible amount of effort for the uniqueness it would bring. You have to think about "uniqueness efficiency" a bit more. I like your nomination for Kawashima a bit more because, while he'd require floating and detachable hands to pull off, he'd get more "uniqueness mileage" for the effort put into him.

If it's worth bring out characters like Ice Climbers and Rosalina despite Sakurai saying about the 3DS limitations, he's going to do the characters you mentioned.
Doesn't really stop me from supporting them despite the amount of effort it would take.

 

[FalKoopa]

Okay, here are the new Chance and Want Charts without Little Mac.

Chance 10

Want 10

Robin was originally in the Top 10 of Want when I had made the charts, but he was bumped out by Dixie soon after. Now with Little Mac out of the way, he's back.

And a standalone pic of Little Mac, just in case.

EDIT: DAMN IT, Who placed Toon Zelda above Bandana Dee in the results section? :/ Brb editing again.

EDIT 2: CHANCE CHART CORRECTED.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance 10

EDIT: DAMN IT, Who placed Toon Zelda above Bandana Dee in the results section? :/ Brb editing again.

Once we rated Toon Zelda again, she scored lower than Bandana Dee. So, he is in the Top 10 now.