This is assuming no playable character whatsoever. And something getting in regardless.
Ah, ok. It won't change my rating since I was already assuming Daitoryo was basically not gonna happen.
I'm also not at all convinced there's really a distinction between "historical" and "retro". R.O.B. is from the NES and can be considered retro just as much as Ice Climbers - they even released on the exact same date in North America! Game & Watches were still video games, albeit primitive, and there had also been a few Game & Watch Galleries on the Game Boy, so I don't see why he's not just retro either.
Once you get rid of that distinction, it seems to me that characters from the following periods are more likely than the small number of candidates from the eras you cite (Sheriff, Duck Hunt Dog, Daitoryo)
late NES: 1986-1991
SNES: 1990-1996
early Game Boy: 1989-1994
And it's even possible we could get something from these later two eras:
late Game Boy: 1994-1998
early N64: 1996-1998
Remember, popularity doesn't matter, and is only a small factor of the character selection process.
And where, exactly, does Sakurai say anything remotely resembling this?
And sorry, but 35% is just ridiculous. I'll eat my hat if Pikmin gets a second rep at all, much less one that's three times the work. Are you willing to put money on that with 2:1 odds?
Sakurai can reveal anything whenever he wants to.
Nobody said that Sakurai/Nintendo can't reveal things whenever they want to.
But it just so happens that "when they want to" isn't determined randomly.
Time means absolutely nothing, and it doesn't matter how your biased eyes look at it.
You're free to assert that, but it's just delusional.
Because it has NOT been the case that reveals have happened randomly. Here are the newcomer and Dojo reveals so far:
Villager - E3, special occasion. New Leaf launches around the same time in two markets (NA, EU)
Wii Fit Trainer - E3, special occasion. As Groose pointed out, Wii Fit U was meant to launch much closer to E3 than it ended up launching.
Mega Man - E3, special occasion. Most hype-building character was shown at the most hype-building time. Who knows how much attention Mega Man stole from Sony and Microsoft stories? That was big news.
Olimar - Launch of Pikmin 3 (JP)
Luigi - Nintendo Direct. Launch of Mario & Luigi: Dream Team (NA)
Peach - Now assumed to be preparation for Rosalina's reveal, but that covers any time before December, so the specific timing is random.
Toon Link - Launch of Wind Waker HD (JP)
Sonic - Nintendo Direct. Soon before launch of Sonic: Lost World
Marth - Random.
Rosalina - Nintendo Direct. A month after launch of Super Mario 3D World, where she was a hidden character.
Zelda - Launch of A Link Between Worlds (JP)
King Dedede - Launch of Kirby: Triple Deluxe (JP)
Lucario - Anniversary of Brawl (JP). Lucario was a Brawl newcomer, but there was no particular reason to choose him over another Brawl newcomer (the fact that only one Pokemon character had been revealed at that point might be related)
Little Mac - Nintendo Direct. Punch-Out's 30th anniversary, as the original Punch-Out!! arcade game had launched in February, 1984 (JP). Note that the newcomer artwork for Little Mac matches the original Punch-Out!! arcade game.
Diddy Kong - Launch of Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (NA)
So, let's see, "time means absolutely nothing" compared to:
66% of character reveals being related to a game release, with an additional 13% being related to anniversaries. For 80% "non-random".
Even if we say that Rosalina and Wii Fit Trainer don't count, it's still 66% related to a game release or anniversary.
Excluding E3, the numbers are 83% with Rosalina, and 75% without her.
Sakurai doesn't have to wait to reveal a newcomer in a direct, there's a chance we could get a newcomer tommorow.
A very low chance, but the same chance as it was on Friday, on the same chance it will be on Tuesday.
Correct. But if you're speculating that this, which we have no precedent for, is a possibility, then you should also concede that he might reveal a newcomer to coincide with the launch of a new game.
Which makes the following statement:
Since 0 newcomers have been revealed on the exact day of a release, and a DK character would have been extremely predictable, no.
Simple as that. Nope.
just self-contradictory.
And yeah, it's not like Sakurai has done anything predictable with any the previous reveals...*looks over list* Oh wait, that's exactly what he's done.
If there's no math to it, then you should disagree with the very premise of this game. We're giving numerical values to characters' chances.
If I said, "There's a 50% chance that my friend will be late for dinner",
it does not mean that I think my friend used an equation to decide when to arrive. It would be ridiculous to think that. That is basically what you're doing when you whine about how I used "fancy" math.
And we've had constant reveals, so I'm not sure where they could have even fit Diddy.
Diddy could've been revealed in August (5 weeks between Luigi and Peach), October (5 weeks between Sonic and Marth) or November (6 weeks between Marth and Rosalina). He could've been revealed instead of Marth or Lucario. It's not at all hard to think of a good place for him.
You also have to consider his data might not have been fully complete in 2013. We don't know because we CAN'T know.
Well, this is why these things are only possibilities, not hard facts. That does not mean that you cannot reason about them and consider what sort of effect they might have.
What you're doing, as I explained earlier, is claiming that you're being "neutral" but really taking a position. You're saying that it's impossible that there's a scenario where these facts have hurt Dixie's chances.
My whole argument has been that
since we can't know, you have to consider
all the scenarios when you rate them. Which means that her chances have been hurt.
Seeing as more often than not, a character will not get revealed on the exact day of a release.
On what basis do you say that?
There have been too many cases of major releases not getting a character, and random reveals to think your theory is accurate.
Two or three random reveals, not actually that many.
And WHICH major releases?
Here are the games that have released in all regions, and had revealed characters or assumed veterans that were not yet revealed, but got no reveal:
Game & Wario - very close to E3, but a fair point
Pokemon X & Y - valid
Mario & Sonic at Sochi - Yoshi has his own game. Wario was possible but...
Super Mario 3D World - Rosalina wasn't revealed right then, but she was a month later.
So that's it. Four games.
Look back over the list I gave above. After the Dojo launched, there were seven major releases with reveals, compared to only four without.