Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[loganhogan]

E.gadd
chance 10% He is recurring and important to Luigi's mansion but ultimately belongs to the Mario franchise so I'd say it is more plausible that he scores an AT.
Want 15%

Improved Stage builder
chance 75% If it returns it probably will be improved and it should be.
want 100%

x3 Sheriff
x2 Dr. Lobe

predict 2% and 13%

 

[Knight Dude]

E. Gadd

Chances: 5%: He's kind of important. Though I doubt they would add a Luigi's Mansion character, not without Luigi getting his own icon that is. But if they wanted to have a more obscure character, then he's a decent choice.


Want: 60%: I actually see E. Gadd as a cool idea. Though he's more of a pipe dream if we're being honest. Still I would be interested.

Stage Builder Revamp

Chance: 50%: Not too sure if it's going to happen, but chances are if it's added again, it'll be improved on in some fashion.

Want: 100%: It would be pretty awesome for it to come back. Even more so if it's improved.

 

[Xenigma]

Next time I see a flat out impossible character I'm predicting 0.03%, because apparently no one can get below that while the odd 1% pity ratings are floating around.

Don't feel like digging for a new character to nominate and roster size has been on my mind of late, so let's try a concept.

E. Gadd - 0%
He's far too low in the rankings for an already unlikely sixth Mario character, the Luigi's Mansion series is less important than other Mario spin-offs not repped (particularly the RPGs), and even if Mansion was to be repped, they would likely do it via Luigi himself first, and it appears Luigi is the same as he's ever been. Seems virtually impossible in my eyes.
Want - 0% - Waste of a slot.

Stage Builder Revamp - 50%
I could see Sakurai doing it, I could see him not doing it. I don't know what his opinion on stage builder before was, but beyond that I can't think of a solid argument for or against, so let's call it 50/50.
Want - 50% - Could be cool, but I barely touched Brawl's stage builder, so...meh?

Midna Prediction - 3.2%
Heck if I know.

Cookie Country Prediction - 14.32%
Stealing Nutty Noon's rating because I have no idea.

Nominations
50 or more Character Slots x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

E. Gadd - 1%

Important to Luigi's mansion, could be unique with the Poltergust since Luigi doesn't appear to be using it this time around, and a fairly well known Mario character, but King Boo would get in before him, that I'm certain of. And again, all Mario newcomers are a long shot at this point with Rosalina being added, some less than others. E. Gadd never really was that much of a popular or likely character among potential Smash nwecomers, but since Rosalina being included doesn't outright disconfirm any other Mario newcomers, E. Gadd still has a small chance.

Want - 60%

This all said I wouldn't mind him as he is a cool character and the Poltergust would be pretty epic.

Improved Stage Builder - 50%

I can see this going either way. If Stage Builder returns at all, it would most likely be improved.

Want - 100%

Would be truly awesome.

Midna Prediction - 2.12%

Cookie Country Prediction - 16.33%

Medli+Makar Team x2 ( a new rival for Yarne+Owain )

2 DK Newcomers x3

 

[jaytalks]

E. Gadd
Chances: 0%
I don't see it happening, but he could appear as an AT maybe. They have yet to even give Luigi the Poltergust 3000, or whatever he uses now.
Want: 0%
Never really liked him as a character.

Improved Stage Builder:
Chances: 90%
It would be backwards not to include it, and if it's included it will automatically be better.
Want: 100%
The fan made stages in Brawl have spoiled me.

Midna Prediction - 1.677%
Cookie Country Prediction - 19.53
Nominations:
Akari Hayami x 5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

E. Gadd: 0.1%
I would not approve of an elderly man being allowed to fight, and I don't think Sakurai would, either.
Want: 2.5%

Improved Stage Builder:
Seems like an obvious thing to put in, and a lot of leaks mention it.

Want:
I think the stage builder definitely could use some improvements.

Midna prediction: 8.44%
Cookie Country prediction: 7.83%

Nominate:
Isabelle x1
Mallo (Pushmo) x4

 

[Mega Bidoof]

@ Groose , RTC needs more assist trophies. Just saying. I know people nominate things they want, but I noticed an extreme lack of rating the chances of characters to be assist trophies.

Maybe you can have someone run another RTC for assist trophies, Pokéballs, and maybe even stage hazards. (Maybe a certain Bidoof could do it.)

 

[Groose]

Well, I'm completely jammed up tonight; my studies have overcome me for once. I hate having no update for two days in a row, but it will have to be that way tonight. Don't worry, things will resume tomorrow.

@ Groose , RTC needs more assist trophies. Just saying. I know people nominate things they want, but I noticed an extreme lack of rating the chances of characters to be assist trophies.

Maybe you can have someone run another RTC for assist trophies, Pokéballs, and maybe even stage hazards. (Maybe a certain Bidoof could do it.)

I'd see no need for a separate thread. If people want to nominate assist trophies, they are free to do so as a concept.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Well, I'm completely jammed up tonight; my studies have overcome me for once. I hate having no update for two days in a row, but it will have to be that way tonight. Don't worry, things will resume tomorrow.


I'd see no need for a separate thread. If people want to nominate assist trophies, they are free to do so as a concept.

if that's how it can be, I can update the thread for today to keep it moving and leave any information that's need to be updated to a moderator (probably fal), like we've done when you were in your state of emergency
it would be no trouble to me mate, though it is your call
Edit: nevermind he went offline, i guess we just have to wait for the update tomorrow then

 

[Starcutter]

E gadd: 4% he'd need to get in Mario kart 8 before smash 4 IMO
Want: 50%

stage Build: 30%
Want: 110%

Noms: old man x5

 

[Pacack]

E gadd: 4% he'd need to get in Mario kart 8 before smash 4 IMO
Want: 50%

stage Build: 30%
Want: 110%

Noms: old man x5

Why only 30%

 

[Starcutter]

Why only 30%

If its improved.


I have a very specific line of what "improved" is.

 

[Pacack]

If its improved.


I have a very specific line of what "improved" is.

Gotcha.

 

[Angiance]

Bleh, there'd be a better chance of us playing as a painting

 

[andimidna]

E Gadd:
Likelihood: 2%
Want: 25%

Improved Stage Builder:
Likelihood: 80%
Want: 100%

I feel like they were just dipping their toes in the water with Brawl's, and now they'll learn from their mistakes and make a REAL stage builder.

Midna: is this my prediction average of the likelihood or the want?
I think the average likelihood percent will be around 2%
And the average want percent might be around 20%
Which am I supposed to do?
Both?

 

[Deleted member]

Midna: is this my prediction average of the likelihood or the want?

You predict the average of the likelihood.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Actually thinking about it for more than a moment; even if Luigi DID rep Luigi's Mansion, wouldn't he render E. Gadd pointless?

Since the main reason to want E. Gadd is the Poltergust(since Mario's already taken his second most famous invention), but if Luigi is repping Luigi's Mansion he'd be the one to use the Poltergust, not the professor.

 

[Rockaphin]

E. Gadd:
Chance: 2.5%
Very unlikely to be playable. But I think he has a decent shot as an assist character.
Want: 5.5%
I'd rather see Luigi with the Poltergust 5000, it would make him unique.

Improved Stage Builder:
Chance: 98%
Couldn't make it worse, unless they scrap it.
Want: 100%
Looked forward to this in Brawl, major disappointment.

Predictions:
Midna: 18.5%
Cookie Country prediction: 6.5%

Nominations:
Paper Mario Stage x5

 

[Floor]

0.01% for playable
There already five Mario characters. An interesting assist, with the poltrageist vacuum.
Want 20% because he would be intresting

stage builder --> 80% likely hood it will be improved, 20% they scrap it.
Want 100%
I would be estatic if they improve it. Add fire... More moving parts... breakable blocks... More room and budget... And COLORS GALOUR!!

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Actually thinking about it for more than a moment; even if Luigi DID rep Luigi's Mansion, wouldn't he render E. Gadd pointless?

Since the main reason to want E. Gadd is the Poltergust(since Mario's already taken his second most famous invention), but if Luigi is repping Luigi's Mansion he'd be the one to use the Poltergust, not the professor.

Yeah, but it's the fact that we haven't seen the Poltergust at all yet in Luigi's moveset that makes people consider E. Gadd.

 

[Chandeelure]

Yeah, but it's the fact that we haven't seen the Poltergust at all yet in Luigi's moveset that makes people consider E. Gadd.

We all know that King Boo with the Poltergust would be much better.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I'd see no need for a separate thread. If people want to nominate assist trophies, they are free to do so as a concept.

Maybe you could add a third category of rating to a character. You could add "Chance of appearing as an assist/hazard" on top of Chance and Want.

Then a character doesn't have to be just "unlikely" but he/she can be "unlikely as playable, but likely as an assist."

We all know that King Boo with the Poltergust would be much better.

Well, you are right this time.
Though I personally prefer Bandana Dee with the Polterspear 5000.

 

[Toxicroaker]

I like rtc how it is. I don't want any more changes.

 

[Groose]

Medli+Makar Team x2 ( a new rival for Yarne+Owain )

Not really. Those two are at least have some sort of relationship; Yarne and Owain almost never converse in a game that stresses communication between characters. Still, they do have the same chance--absolutely none.

Maybe you could add a third category of rating to a character. You could add "Chance of appearing as an assist/hazard" on top of Chance and Want.

Then a character doesn't have to be just "unlikely" but he/she can be "unlikely as playable, but likely as an assist."

1) This would mess up all existing ratings.
2) This would be make things too complex.
3) I don't have time to input dozens more scores.
4) What does it matter if a character is "unlikely?" In this game, we must acknowledge the truth... or what we think is the truth, anyway.

E. Gadd Chances: 5%
Are we getting another character from the Mario series (or the Luigi series)? I doubt it--it seems strange that they wouldn't diversify their newcomers more. Is it possible? Yeah, of course--Mario and his spin-offs are the very core of Nintendo, and having too many characters from there is pretty hard to do. With Waluigi outright deconfirmed, Toad on life support, Geno being Geno, and Rosalina getting in, there aren't actually that many candidates left for a new Mario character. Bowser Jr. is the obvious frontrunner now and Paper Mario is the only mainstream competitor, but there are a few dark horses and I see E. Gadd (as well as King Boo) as one of them.

I'm not sure if Luigi's Mansion can drive in a character. It is a pretty popular mini-series, and it has inspired other games (including Smash), but it still is a pretty small series. E. Gadd has cameod in other parts of the Mario franchise (E. Gadd's Garage Mario Party Stage, F.L.U.D.D. and Jr.'s paintbrush, Partners in Time), but he's never had much of an status and isn't overly popular.

I'm not ruling him out, but I'm not giving him too much credit, either. Classic dark horse candidate.

E. Gadd Want: 100%
As a young lad on Smashboards, I was skimming through the list of character support threads, and I noticed that E. Gadd didn't have one. I quickly swooped in to make one... only to find that there was a thread for "Professor E. Gadd." Oops. But the point here still stands--I'd love E. Gadd. He's a very quirky character (even if he can get irritating), and he reminds me of my childhood. The games I am most nostalgic for are late N64 and early Gamecube titles; Luigi's Mansion sits upon the throne of these. Additionally, I loved Sunshine and find it cool how often it references him; that was always a childhood favorite.

Additionally, I see a lot of moveset potential here. I mean, the old geezer is responsible for creating so much gadgetry. Bowser Jr.'s Paintbrush? E. Gadd Invention. Darklight? E. Gadd Invention. Mario's F.L.U.D.D.? E. Gadd Invention. The Poltergust? E. Gadd invention. Pixelator? E. Gadd Invention. When I factor in his eccentric personality, his moveset potential, and my personal attachment to the character, I think he'd be a great choice.

Improved Stage Builder: 63.75%
Two different games that need modes to flesh the game out? Yeah, 85% chance that a Stage Builder returns. Chance of it being substantially improved? Well, it would be hard not to do, because Brawl's was pretty bad. 75% chance of it being improved if it returns.

Improved Stage Builder Want: 100%
As limited as it was, I still spent hours with it on Brawl. Imagine if I can create some actually decent stages now?

Miis x5

The Day finally ends...

...and the Twilight begins...

​

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Miis x5

The Day finally ends...

...and the Twilight begins...

​

Notice how X5 Mii is in red.
I'm scared......

 

[Groose]

E. Gadd (Luigi's Mansion)
2.46% chance
31.63% want
He may be a truly brilliant scientist, but he didn't crack the formula of how to succeed in Rate Their Chances! Mediocre want and poor chance... ah well. There's always next game.

Improved Stage Builder
70.17% chance
85.15% want
Wow... this concept scored even higher in want than "Decloned Ganondorf," placing it behind only the confirmed "Promoted Assist Trophy" concept in want. We may whine about the Stage Builder, but it clearly has some serious backing or potential.

Today, we're rating Midna. It doesn't matter if it's solo Midna or riding Wolf Link; any form of playable, rostered Midna counts [please average your want scores if they'd be different for each form]. Please rate Midna in chance and want today. In addition, we're rating a Cookie Country Stage from Kirby's return to Dreamland in chance and want. Can it defeat Nutty Noon, a stage we just rated last week? Oh, and there's a picture in the OP if you're unfamiliar with the area's design.

Tomorrow we're rating Team Rocket's Top Cat and the Star Successor. Please predict how Meowth and Isa Jo will fare.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

Midna Chance: 5%
The only thing going for her is popularity. She is a one time character that appeared 8 years ago, and most likely will not return (unless there is a direct TP sequel).

Midna Want: 7.5%
Not that she is a bad character, but I find her waaaay too overrated.


Cookie Country Chance: 70%
I don't know why, but everyone says it is likely for some reason, so I guess I agree.

Cookie Country Want: 50%
Seems ok, like another Green Greens. Ive always kinda likedthe classic, grassy Kirby stages. I feel it really represents the personality of the Kirby series.


Meowth Prediction: 15%
All Pokémon newcomers' chances are extremely lowered due to the Brawl Pokémon plus Mewtwo equalling five, which is the perfect Smash number for the big 3 series.

Isa Joe Prediction:
Hold on, let me look up who this guy is...

EDIT: Isa Jo Prediction: 2.75%
Saki out prioritizes him, since Saki was in Brawl and whatnot.

Nomination: X5 Sandbag

 

[Smasher 101]

@OcarinaOfDoom came very close to E. Gadd's score, while @FalKoopa and @Cheezey Bites were the closest to the Improved Stage Builder. All three have five extra nominations today.

Midna's chances: 1% - I don't think we'll ever get another one-time Zelda character, and her time has passed. Only reason I can't completely rule her out is because she does still have quite a bit of popularity.
Want: 20% - Eh.

Cookie Country: 40% - Again, I find a Return to Dreamland stage to be very likely, and I think this is one of the frontrunners.
Want: 70% - I'm cool with it.

Meowth prediction: 7.54% - I'm sure he's going to drop.
Isa Jo prediction: 4.58% - I think people find Saki more likely for a Sin & Punishment rep, and he's not that likely himself.

Mii x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Midna: 2%
Want: Riding wolf link would be a 0%, but on her own... Still a 0%. Surprisingly, that brings the score up to 0%

Cookie Country: 70%
Want: 100%

Isa Jo: 2.14%
Meowth: 7.89%

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[colder_than_ice]

Midna
Chance: 4% - Sadly, I don't think she'll even be considered. A one shot deuteragonist with mediocre popularity from an eight year old game probably won't have too much of a chance.
Want: 79% - We can dream right?

Cookie Country
Chance: 31% - I would normally think that Lor Starcutter has the best chance for a Kirby stage, then I remembered that every single SSB game to date has included at least one Wispy Woods stage.
Want: 0% - I see no potential.

Isa (we seriously need to get out of the habit of calling him by his full name) prediction: 4%

Meowth prediction: 13%

Nominations: Alph x5

 

[NickerBocker]

Midna
Chance: 2.5%
Want: 65%

Plain and simple, Midna has missed her opportunity. Unless she is featured in an upcoming game, I don't think she has a very good chance. The person in the spotlight now is Ghirahim, and the one off characters haven't been getting much love from LoZ.

Cookie Country
Abstain

Don't know much about it.

Isa: Pi (3.14%,) (I'm starting to use this a lot more than I probably should.)

Nominations:
Lupus x5

 

[andimidna]

Midna's chances: I find the ability for her to be added onto Link (Wolf Link and Midna transformation after Final Smash) very helpful in her chances. Being picked as the 5th rep may be low, but she's definitely one of the more unique ones. Arguably the most unique, as she could be a quadruped team, a floating small magic character, or a tall normal sword character, and her final smash would be her fused shadow form, which has a SPEAR! She dissolves her body into little pieces to fuse through walls, warps anything to any location as she pleases without laying a finger on it, and has magic orbs strong enough to break metal like it was glass. If Wolf Link and Midna were added onto Link, this would finally differentiate Link and Toon Link, and would fit just fine seeing as both Samus and Zelda have an add-on.
This would make the one clone we have, unique. Uniqueness seems bid=g this time around, yet we have 1 returning clone.
This would fix that. And anybody who wants to play as Link and only Link, could just use Toon Link, as it's the same moveset with some unique animations, sounds, and a different side aerial that has basically the same hitbox regardless of what's being used.
As the 5th rep, she probably wouldn't get in over the more recent one-time character, so I'm not going to give a likelihood for that, it'd be very low.
Her being playable could include being with Link, and considering that, I think it could and should happen. TP Link is back in SSB4 and Zelda U might even be a sequel to TP. However, I can't say being added on to Link is more likely than not, that's not true.
I'll say... 20%
There are many things going against the other choices for the Zelda series. If she's not going against all of them for 5th rep, and becoming a part of Link so it seems less odd Zelda gets her own one-time popular female swap, and Link doesn't.
Ganondorf could even get the extremely iconic Ganon, which he somewhat had in Brawl... but I'm saying it's possible the triforce trio could all have a swap, and then maybe there wouldn't even need to be a 5th if they added Midna and Ganon.
I wish she was more popular on this site, that's why I like to go on other sites from time to time, she's much more popular elsewhere.
Midna want: 1000%
Can I vote higher?

Cookie Country (for both): 50%
I could see it happening as easily as I could see it not happening. And I'm neutral until I see the stage in action. Could be good, could be bad.

Meowth prediction: 9%
Isa Jo prediction: 8%

Tiki x2
Anna x1
Ghirahim x1
Lucina x1

Midna: 2%
Want: Riding wolf link would be a 0%, but on her own... Still a 0%. Surprisingly, that brings the score up to 0%

Cookie Country: 70%
Want: 100%

Isa Jo: 2.14%
Meowth: 7.89%

x5 Balloon Fighter

Did you even play Twilight Princess?
How do you not see potential in this... at least enough to want it slightly less than a percent?

 

[Kenith]

Midna:
Chance: 25%. With having only one major appearance in a game eight years old, and many other more likely and prominent characters clawing to take the spot, and the likely possibility of no new Zelda character, things seem incredibly dire for Midna's chances.
However, she does have assets that increase those chances, mainly, her incredible potential as a unique fighter with her shadow magic (and her ponytail), which Sakurai is certainly looking for and ensuring with new fighters, and her diminished, but still notable, popularity. And the amount of requests she gets doesn't factor in every fan, either.
She was almost as requested as Rosalina before her reveal, and while Rosalina appeared in multiple games, Mario's characters always are reocurring, whereas Zelda characters in the main story are lucky to make another appearance.
Overall, it's not too likely. But it's not impossible either.

Want: 100%. This is my most wanted character sans Ghirahim and Lucina. She left a lasting impression on me and many others, and I think that she (and what she represents; the Link's companion) would be a good inclusion to this game.
Cookie Country Stage:
Chance: 60%. It's very likely we will get a new Kirby stage, and since Kirby's Return to Dreamland was a recent, successful Kirby game, it could get a stage based on it. However, in Brawl the only Kirby stage we got was Halberd, which is a lot more specific and different than this stage. Although, assuming Melee stages are omitted, we will be lacking a lush, bright, iconic Kirby stage, and Cookie Country fits that perfectly.

Want: 50%. I love cookies, however I dislike country, so I give it 50/50.

Meowth Prediction: 7%.
Isa Jo Prediction: 4%.

Edit: Oh, I forgot! Nominate Ghirahim X5.

 

[Xenigma]

Midna - 1%
A true dark horse candidate, her relevance has long since passed and she is just one of a million one-off Zelda characters, but she has enough enduring popularity and is a unique enough character (both alone and with Wolf Link) that it's perfectly believable that she manages to sneak into the roster, if extremely unlikely. Likely assist trophy material, but who knows? She's certainly plausible, which is more than can be said of most newcomers we rate these days.
Want - 75% - As far as potential Zelda characters go, Midna's got some serious potential to really be awesome.

Cookie Country - 5%
Same rating I gave to the last Return from Dream Land stage, in large part because it's such a specific choice for stage for a game that isn't really guaranteed to be represented with a stage considering Epic Yarn is out there.
Want - 50% - Meh?

Isa Jo Prediction - 4.5%
Might not do terribly, oddly enough.

Meowth Prediction - 6.5%
Wait, we're rerating Meowth? And he got more than 11% last time? I'm confused on so many levels right now.

Nominations
50 or More Character Slots x5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

minda - 2.50%
one shot Zelda character, above average popularity, game has passed, more or less sums it up, she barely even stands a chance because of Zelda wii u using similar graphics to TP(even recreating a boss battle from there), link and Zelda continuing their twilight princess outfits (though it mainly because the team doesn't want to waste extra resources creating new outfits) and her surprisingly, but still above average popularity
want - 95%
minda alone imp/orginal form - 90%
minda and wolf link - 100%
equals up to 95%
cookie country - 8.25%
possible but unlikely because green greens is more iconic and there probably won' be two Kirby green stages
want - 5%
not really
isa jo - 1.14%
most will say zeros, some will give 1 or 2s
meowth - 12.55%
tomorrow will get a bit controversial
nominations:
shulkX5

 

[praline]

Midna: 0% A one shot character whose game wasn't good.
Want: -30% ;P

 

[andimidna]

Midna: 0% A one shot character whose game wasn't good.
Want: -30% ;P

Blasphemy!

 

[Kenith]

Blasphemy!

I love how two people with wildly contrasting opinions have an avatar of the exact same concept.

 

[andimidna]

I love how two people with wildly contrasting opinions have an avatar of the exact same concept.

Well, everybody can agree cosmic royalty launching out of rainbow stars is awesome.
Pretty much a fact, really.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Midna likelihood: 1.25%
Want: 20%

Cookie Country Likelihood: 40%
Want: 60%

Isa Jo: 3.15%
Meowth: 7.65%

Unlockable Newcomers x5