Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[TheCreator]

Chrom?
Prediction 92%
Want 80%

Toad? 30%

Tingle x5

 

[TheCreator]

Whoops double post.

 

[Forde]

Chrom:

Prediction 75%
Want 95%

 

[DMurr]

Chrom: 70%
Want: 65%

I agree with Peachy, that Lucina is the more likely choice if we're guessing who IS would recommend. She was one of the first characters made when Awakening was being developed, and made it through a lot of the development changes to make it in the final game. Some of the developers have even said that she's their favorite character also. I'm probably biased because I want Lucina more than Chrom.. I'd be thrilled to have any new Fire Emblem character though, really.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Chrom:

Chance: 82%
Want: 90%
A highly likely inclusion, and one I'd be very happy about.

Toad: 26.37%

Slime *5

 

[SmashShadow]

Chrom: 40%
This may seem low to you but you have to remember that he has to compete with both Roy and Lucina. With 3 very possible character, it'd be scraping the barrel to say any one of them has even a 50% chance.

Want: 50% Indifferent

Toad: 32.5%

3x Vaati
2x Impa

 

[Groose]

No more GameFAQs? Probably better in the long term, though I wonder how SSBF would feel about it. Anyway...

The two main reasons I held off of this decision for two weeks are the loss of accuracy cutting out such a large samlple of data would beget and because SSBF wouldn't want it this way.

Still, the 'official' GameFAQs version of RTC predates ours and has a larger, more dedicated following on the FAQs. Since the owner of that thread was going to shut it down if I were to continue posting ours there as well, I opted to bow out. After all, our game can be played here and we 're still happy; their version can be played there and they're happy. It was the choice that works out for the largest number of people.

As of now, I'm looking up music to post for upcoming characters in the music section. It's quite fun, and I'm enjoying taking a stroll down memory lane/discovering new music! I promise to get at least two pieces of music for every person we rate for here on out; more is possible for characters I'm more familiar with and those who have appeared in multiple games.

I'm also working on a "30-Day Review" that I'll post after Day 30. I'll try to make it informative, yet funny. Unfortunately, wit is one area where SSBF clearly has me beat.

 

[Ephecus]

Chrom
Chance: 60 %
Want: 15 %
Chrom isn't really a very memorable member of the FE13 crew being another "swordwielding lord"-type character. I'd rather have a more magelike character in it, like Robin.

Toad: 33%

Nominations:
5x Medusa

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Chrom: 85%
Want: 0%
Toad: 25%

Nominate:
Yarne x 4
Omastar x 1

 

[Sid-cada]

Chrom

Chance - 50% - As far as I'm concerned, there is as much going for him as there is not. While he was the Main Lord of Awakening, the most recent game and the savior of the series, Roy beats him popularity wise and Lucina seems to be the more promoted of the Awakening Lords. The best shot he has is if Sakurai does not know who to pick again, and goes to IS for suggestions.

Want - 46% - I'd be slightly annoyed at his inclusion. Yes, he helped save the series, but I can't see him getting out without one vet or another going away. I also fear that this will prove recency to be an important part of character selection, which I don't want to happen.

Edit: Forgot some things...

Toad - 45% - I have a feeling he will do slightly better than Jr., but that's about it.

Nominations -
X5 Pokémon Trainer.

 

[Moocow123450]

Chrom
Chance- 70%. He is the main lord of awakening which seems to be the most well known of the fire emblems, but he is very similar to Ike in terms of design. Despite that, his lordship makes him more likely to be in the game.
Want-35%: I really don't care for him, and the fact he's another sword wielder is just starting to get silly.
Toad-30%
5 nominations Sandbag

 

[FalKoopa]

The two main reasons I held off of this decision for two weeks are the loss of accuracy cutting out such a large samlple of data would beget and because SSBF wouldn't want it this way.

Just in case you didn't know, the decision of conducting "Rate Their Chances" on GameFAQs wasn't SSBF's decision, actually. He ran a poll initially. IIRC most of us were neutral on that, so he decided to do it on both websites. If most of us had objected to it, he wouldn't have run it there.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance 65%
Never heard of this fire mbkem character but I looked at opossums thread that's pretty good evidence that he's has a good possibility

Want 50%
Again never heard of this fire emblem character but he looked cool and I could see a potential move set he would be the first character with 2 weapons according to opossums move set box and if he has 2 main weapons that makes a cool set

 

[FalKoopa]

Chance 65%
Never heard of this fire mbkem character but I looked at opossums thread that's pretty good evidence that he's has a good possibility

Want 50%
Again never heard of this fire emblem character but he looked cool and I could see a potential move set he would be the first character with 2 weapons according to opossums move set box and if he has 2 main weapons that makes a cool set

Opossum did a really good job convincing someone, I see.

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Chrom chances: 90% there's a massive audience out there that's not neck deep in smashbros threads. FE:A has gotten a lot of publicity and praise, far more than any past game. People have said there will be backlash for not adding other characters and I think the same would happen to chrom. "Why wasn't chrom added?" would come up a lot and Sakurai would need a much better answer than something so opinionated.

Want: 85%

Toad prediction: 20%


Edit :
Nominations
x3 Robin
x2 Masked Man

 

[NickerBocker]

Chrom
Prediction: 68%
Honestly, his chances are pretty good. Better than other FE characters other than maybe Roy. The Arena Ferox doesnt confirm him, but it does mean that Sakurai is looking at Awakening for ideas, which definitely helps his chances. If FE has 3 reps, I have a feeling Chrom is gonna be one of them.

Want: 60%
I like his character in Awakening, and I would play as him if he gets in. My only thing against him is he's another sword fighter from FE, and thay will be the 4th one they have. Not that I dont like those characters, its just that someone who doesnt know FE as a series is gonna think all the characters are similar. I would prefer someone who can use magic, or at the very least something other than a sword.

Toad: 35%

Noms:
Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[Keto]

Chrom: 30% (I don't know much about Fire Emblem, but cutting Ike for Chrom is absurd. Why cut the previous most popular character for the more recent one? Roy --> Ike --> Chrom... then who? The next popular blue haired sword wielding Fire Emblem character for SSB5 and cut Chrom? Sakurai may have noticed this trend and not include Chrom at all, assuming that Ike is getting cut in which I hope he is not.)

Want: 10%

Toad: 29.44%

Sandbag x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Chrom
Chance: 82% - He is the most relevant and popular lord to FE right now. It also helps that an Awakening stage has already been confirmed.
Want: 100% - My most wanted newcomer for smash.

Toad prediction: 77%

Nominations: Sandbag x5

 

[•Col•]

Chrom: 30%
Want: 15%

I can't actually believe how high people are scoring him here. 80's???? 100??!?!?!

Several people who haven't even HEARD of him until now are giving him super high chances.

I'm legitimately scared to actually go look at the Gamefaq results.

I just think it's sad because the little kiddies are going to go look at the unrealistic results and think "OH HEY THIS MEANS THIS CHARACTER IS PRACTICALLY GUARANTEED FOR THE GAME", when in reality the results are complete bull**** and I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 character listed in the top fifteen would actually get into the game.

EDIT: Just went over and checked Gamefaq. Seems like a lot of Gamefaq people started moving over to here.. Which explains a lot of these results, actually.

I feel a little better now.

 

[FalKoopa]

I'm legitimately scared to actually go look at the Gamefaq results.

Rate Their Chamces has been discontinued on GameFAQs.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Chrom Chances: 89%
Chrom Want: 100%
Toad Prediction: 77.56%
Nominations: Tom Nook x4
Anna x1

 

[•Col•]

Rate Their Chamces has been discontinued on GameFAQs.

I figured he meant that AFTER Chrom it would stop.

 

[FlareHabanero]

I can't actually believe how high people are scoring him here. 80's???? 100??!?!?!

People have **** tastes wow what an obscure concept I'm absolutely shocked.

 

[FalKoopa]

I figured he meant that AFTER Chrom it would stop.

Checked the first post. My bad. Embarrass

EDIT: Oh god, I must revise my predictions then.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Chance: 60%
Want: 40%

I'm not familiar with him at all, and his chances at Gamefaqs are quite overrated thus far. For Marth and Ike, there where legit reasons for them being in. Both starred 2 games as main heros, Marth is iconic for his prince lord-archetype and being the first main hero, Ike is iconic for him being the lord of the first 3D Fire Emblem title and him being more or less the face of the series in the west. Their fighting styles also contrast nicely despite being blue haired swordsmen. Chrom is basically in between them in design and fighting style. Using skills of Ike, and the sword of Marth. He's the face of Fire Emblem Awakening however, but he's not too popular, neither is he the only main hero. From what I've heard, Lucina and the Avatar are equally important.

 

[Opossum]

People have **** tastes wow what an obscure concept I'm absolutely shocked.

Taste is entirely subjective. Get off your ****ing high horse.

 

[•Col•]

People have **** tastes wow what an obscure concept I'm absolutely shocked.

I'm not even talking about want percantage here.

People are giving him 100% chance that he's likely to be a playable character in Smash 4. There's no such thing as a GUARANTEED character.

I'm just saying, giving 100% or honestly even anything over 85%(to any non-veteran characters) is just being unrealistic.

 

[Xenigma]

If he goes to IS for a Fire Emblem character, I really do think they'll pick Lucina as the FE13 character of choice due to every FE13 merchandise having her on the cover (game box, figurine, art book and OST).

I'm a bit surprised this argument hasn't gained more traction. We know Sakurai asks IS who he should use, we know IS loves promoting Lucina, yet many users here are acting like Chrom is guaranteed? If Lucina supporters are overrating her chances, Chrom supporters are even worse.

 

[Opossum]

I'm a bit surprised this argument hasn't gained more traction. We know Sakurai asks IS who he should use, we know IS loves promoting Lucina, yet many users here are acting like Chrom is guaranteed? If Lucina supporters are overrating her chances, Chrom supporters are even worse.

I think it's mainly due to the fact that, in all reality, Lucina isn't as important to the game as Chrom is. Chrom is one of only two characters that are required to live through the entire game. If Lucina dies, the plot goes on without her.

Just my view on the situation, but eh.

 

[ToothiestAura]

Chrom
Chance: 60%
Main character of one of the highest selling and highest rated FE games.

Want: 50%
I really don't want him playable if he ends up a clone, but they COULD come up with his own moveset. I'd much rather The Avatar as a playable character.

 

[jaytalks]

Chrom's Likelihood: 60%. Chrom is the most likely of all the FE candidates. Quick note: my overall prediction numbers are lower in that most characters don't top 60%. Statistically it would impossible to have so many newcomers to have such high percentage, especially considering the fact that we don't know all the factors that Sakurai and his team use and how they weigh against each other. So 60% is pretty high in my book. I think overall we score characters far too high.
Arguing for Chrom's inclusion (or any character for that matter) relies on weighing factors that we don't know how much they weigh on Sakurai. Popularity isn't as proven of a factor as many treat it, but even still, he still ranks well relative to other newcomers, and is the current most requested FE newcomer on the Smash poll.
The main thing he's got going against them is that IS has a lot of say with Sakurai and his team, and their lord of choice for promoting the game so far has been Lucina. In selling things that aren't concerned with spoilers, Lucina has been chosen to be the face of Awakening (OST and Artbook). Lucina would also make her an appealing add in terms of adding to roster diversity, which hasn't been demonstrated before in the series, but is a social pressure that exists in modern media today. I think that social pressure was also part of decision to also reveal Wii Fit Trainer at E3. But back to Chrom, it isn't inconceivable that they wouldn't select Chrom as their choice.

Want: 70%. I used to argue against him, but after continually arguing for him against individuals who have mostly baseless reasons against his inclusion, I ended up believing in some of what I said myself. Only if you carefully parse Sakurai's words on uniqueness can you use them to deconfirm characters. It speaks to more of his design philosphy in my estimation. The only thing Chrom really shares with Ike is the mercernary archetype, the same way most FE lords share Marth's basic lord archetype; in their most recent appearances, they are really different units. Ike fights with a more rough style, and they don't really fight the same at all. Aether appears to have become a lord exclusive skill, as Chrom isn't the only one to have it (and it doesn't have a special animation). Ike is not of royal blood, etc. Among those who have actually played his game, Chrom is one of the most popular characters, and second only possibly to Lucina.

Toad Prediction: 55.55%
Nominations:
Waluigi x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Chrom's chances: 70%
Want: 80%

Toad prediction: 40%

Nominate Samurai Goroh x5.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Chrom:

Likelihood: 80% - If there's gonna be a new FE rep, it's gonna be him, and with Awakening being a success it's looking very likely.

Want: 10% - I don't really care for him, actually, I'd prefer if he stayed away since he threatens Ike's chances.

Toad Prediction: 34%

Nominations:
5x Ike - I refuse to rate Tingle before Ike.

 

[kikaru]

. There's no such thing as a GUARANTEED character.

I'd like to think characters like Game&Watch, Marth, Luigi, Peach, MetaKnight, etc. are guaranteed. (Especially considering the art Sakurai posted way back when) and that out of the top fifteen characters requested we're likely to see more than just one (We saw MegaMan already). But hey, that's just me.

Also I do think a lot of people are grossly overestimating Chrom's chances so here's my two cents.

Chances: 55%. This stems from the fact that not only was Roy, the biggest competitor for a third spot in my opinion, a veteran but he was planned for Brawl and is still relevant to the series today. However, Chrom does have unique and viable movesets posted on the forum so from a gameplay perspective he's not 'bland' enough to be overlooked.

Want: 85%. (+60% for a third FE character, +x% for character) Characters like Owain, Tiki, Olivia, Roy, etc. would rank higher up on my want list than Chrom because I adore them and Roy because he was my favorite character in Melee. (Most certainly not my favorite character or Lord in the Fire Emblem series however)

Nominations:
Tingle x4
Goroh x1

 

[Starcutter]

chrom chances 80%

want: 60%

toad: 73.6%

nominations
Kamek x5

 

[Wyoming]

Chrom chances: 70% - He's the latest flavor, and I believe Fire Emblem could have three representatives. However, I'd like to think that Sakurai will be a little more 'creative' as to choosing another FE character. Having three swordsmen who have the same concept is fairly boring after all. Surely there's someone else out there in the franchise that can deliver some spice in Smash Bros.? But with that said, he has a strong chance in appearing in this game solely for the first factor.

Want: 10% There's better options out there, even in the FE universe.

Nominations: Jack (from Harvest Moon) x5

 

[Primid]

Chrom Likelihood: 50% - It seems like the FE part of the roster is very uncertain. Some want Ike to leave, others don't. Some really want Roy, others say that Chrom is practically a shoe-in. I personally don't know that much about FE anyway, but Chrom seems to be very popular.
Chrom Want: 60% - From what I've seen, he seems like he'd be pretty cool. I just hope that if Chrom is added, he doesn't replace Ike, because I like Ike.

Toad Prediction: 15%

Nominations:
Masked Man x4
R.O.B. x1

 

[Groose]

I figured he meant that AFTER Chrom it would stop.

That's the plan. I wanted a day to close things out.

I'd like to think characters like Game&Watch, Marth, Luigi, Peach, MetaKnight, etc. are guaranteed. (Especially considering the art Sakurai posted way back when) and that out of the top fifteen characters requested we're likely to see more than just one (We saw MegaMan already). But hey, that's just me.

We did vote on characters that we wouldn't rate in the game. As a whole, we decided that Game and Watch and Marth were highly probable, but not untouchable. Nominations are allowed for them.

On the other hand, Luigi, Peach, and Meta Knight are considered pretty pointless to rate.

 

[Erimir]

The weird thing to me is how low Fire Emblem's sales are relative to some other series yet people think it's obvious that Fire Emblem deserves and will receive three reps, possibly four. I wouldn't be overly surprised if they only had two reps again, if Sakurai's putting more emphasis on adding new series to the game.

Only if you carefully parse Sakurai's words on uniqueness can you use them to deconfirm characters.

I don't think a lack of uniqueness is a disqualification.

It's more like, if a character's very unique but in a way that translates to Smash easily, that's a positive. That's part of why Sakurai was so open to putting Mega Man in. It's probably why Wii Fit Trainer got in. It wasn't because there was a big fan demand for WFT. But the existence of Falco and Toon Link should be enough to convince people that non-uniqueness is not a disqualification. Sakurai can make anyone unique in the broad sense of having different moves from everyone else. That's not hard.

When I was saying it before, I was reacting against people preemptively defending Chrom from the "not unique" charge. Their defense should be "being less unique doesn't disqualify" - not pretending as if Chrom isn't quite similar to other FE characters. Because he is. Sure, you can make him different. But their ideas for making him different could be used on all sorts of characters. He's not unique. Or at least, he's not significantly more unique than Toon Link.

Waluigi could have a stance based move set where he uses a tennis racket in one stance and a golf club in another. Takamaru could use samurai stances. Little Mac could use stances. Bowser Jr could transform to Shadow Mario, or pull out his paintbrush as a move. Ganondorf could have a stance change switching between a sword and a trident and his fists. You can come up with that idea for all sorts of characters if you're worried about them not being unique enough, it's nothing unique about Chrom specifically.


Put it this way: if you weren't thinking about uniqueness as a concern, and Marth and Roy and Ike hadn't already been in the game, and you were designing a move set for Chrom... how different would it be?

But like I said, not being unique doesn't mean your character won't get in. And there are other reasons that Chrom has a decent chance of getting in.

The only thing Chrom really shares with Ike is the mercernary archetype, the same way most FE lords share Marth's basic lord archetype; in their most recent appearances, they are really different units. Ike fights with a more rough style, and they don't really fight the same at all. Aether appears to have become a lord exclusive skill, as Chrom isn't the only one to have it (and it doesn't have a special animation). Ike is not of royal blood, etc.

If these are arguments why Chrom is unique, is there any character out there you would say is NOT unique? I mean, cuz clearly royal blood or not makes them very different. And Luigi wears green, not red. And Falco is a bird.

 

[cephalopod17]

Chrom's Chances: 70%
I do not think he is guaranteed, because he faces stiff competition from Roy and Lucina (And Lyn) He is a main character of Awaking (Best Selling Fire Emblem) and is important to the plotline. He is more likely than Lyn, but Roy is popular and a veteran, while Lucina was advertised and is important aswell.

Chrom's Want: 80% I do not have much personally preference to Roy or Lyn and after playing Awaking, Chrom definitely seems like a good rep. I do not believe he would be to much of a clone.

Toad Prediction: 48%

Nominations:
Tingle x3
Alph (Pikmin 3) x2