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Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

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XenothiumX

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Banjo-Kazooie
Likelihood: 0.1%

Want: 100%
I've always thought that they would have been good additions since the first Super Smash Bros.

Most Entertaining Poster: Groose
not because you run the thread but, because you do come up with creative stuff.

Prince Sable
Prediction: 2.5%

Nominations:
Slippy x5
 

MasterOfKnees

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Take it for what you will, but the majority of N64 games have always come off as very slow-paced games with awkward controls and spazing cameras to me. Okay, that might be generalizing things quite a bit, of couse different games have different problems. Might have to do with me not growing up with it, but in my opinion the N64 is still Nintendo's worst home console.
 

Groose

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I'm back in the ring and ready to to do some work on this thread. Oh boy. I'm so jolly right now, only this song can fit my mood. So, relax and enjoy as I get things straigtened out, okay?​


P.S.: Even though this site update has cause tons of problems, I love it. It saves drafts. That means I can post stuff without it getting eaten! Woot!​
 

Groose

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Noms tallied. Switching to Favorite Day, then tallying Banjo. Oh boy, I hope his want breaks 70%...

I'm actually more surprised by how many people have posted who were born during the N64 years and grew up in the GC era.

Definitely makes me feel old.
When I was a lad, my best friend and closest cousin both had N64's. I grew up with games like Mario Party 2, Banjo Kazooie, Star Fox 64, Ocarina of Time (Majora's Mask freaked me out back then, and still does in a way), Mario Kart, Smash, and, of course, my favorite game Mario 64. I actually asked for an N64 for Christmas that year... and somehow wound up with Nintendo's new toy: a GAMECUBE! So, I'm kind of in the middle: I fondly remember the N64 era, but I didn't actually own anything until the GC era.

Of course, I had a Gameboy back in the day... Super Mario Bros. Deluxe, Donkey Kong Country, Pokemon, Mario Land, Tetris, Mole Mania are games I all remember owning. Heck, I remember having to have people read me parts of dialogue from Pokemon that I couldn't understand. Ah, good times.

I'd love to make a huge Banjo section for the music... I'll add this when it's editable again or I find a good place to host, okay?

THE NAME IS CHANDELURE!
OH MY GOD THE MEMORIES!
 

BlitznBurst

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Banjo chances: 2%. If Banjo were a regular third party I'd probably rate him about 10% or so, since despite not being very prominent today he starred in two incredibly popular games on the N64. But not only is Banjo-Kazooie a third party franchise now, it's a franchise owned by Microsoft, a direct competitor to Nintendo. Acquiring Banjo would be a lot more difficult than Sonic, or Mega Man, or Pac Man, because chances are Microsoft would be a lot less willing to let Nintendo use their character.

Want: 90%. **** you, Microsoft.

Prince Sable: 5%. Pulling a number out of my ass here

Bayonetta X5
 

Groose

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YEAR-END SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT:
I can now announce the winners for the "Favorite Day" competition. Day 114: Hades is first place with a whopping 14 votes; a combination of Hades' antics, the invasion of Uprising characters, and perhaps the recency of it helped it prevail to the clear top spot. Second place is none other than Day 85: Chancellor Cole, which garnered six votes. This day was popular because Cole was one character you could all agree on, and many of you felt it was cathartic and funny to bash to your heart's content. Third Place belongs to Day 99: Rosalina and Waddle Dee; in addition to containing the fan-favorite Waddle Dee, this day also had us rate the Rosalina, the character who would go on to be confirmed. Not coincidentally, the day for rating Rosalina's satisfaction was just one vote behind the original Rosalina day, garnering four votes. Finally, other honorable mentions include Day 76: Anna, Day 83: Phoenix Wright, Day 110: Groose, Day 18: Owain, Day 32: Waluigi, Day 97: Omastar and Palutena, Day 98: Dr. Kawashima, and Day 92: Yarne.

I'd like to thank you for this important piece of feedback. I'll try my best to realize what made these days great, and, if I can, apply this to other days.

In other news: this is the end of the year-end special. I originally had one more day of it planned, but I'm dismissing the idea. Forunately, we will be having Concepts and Rerates to do for at least the next four days, so it shouldn't get too boring around here (and if it does, that's what all true warriors strive for, anyway). I'm also dismissing making an official tally of the "Most Entertaining Poster" day; the day didn't turn out exactly like I had hoped for. In retrospect, that wasn't one of my brighter ideas; I'd like to move forward from it as quickly as possible.

I thank you all for putting up with my shenanigans throughout this whole "Year-End Special;" now that we're in the new year, I hope things continue to run smoothly. And remember--this is LAUNCH year, baby!

Banjo's day will be ending... not too far in the future.
 

Groose

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Well.
Well, well, well.

Guys, I figured out the problem with the OP.
IT'S TOO BIG!

Figuring things out now. Hope to have this restored soon. As of now, the music section is going to have to be moved to another post.

 

Starcutter

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Why don't you use that third post you don't ever use anymore as the musical post?

Edit: oh, silly me you are already using it. My bad.
 

Golden Icarus

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31. Tom Nook (Animal Crossing): 13.73% chance, 38.46% want
32. Lip (Panel de Pon)
: 13.69% chance, 34.81% want
33.Black Shadow (F-Zero): 13.09% chance, 43.00% want
34.Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven): 12.97% chance, 24.71% want
35. Waluigi (Super Mario) DAY 100: (12.75% chance, 44.13% want); DAY 32: (24.72% chance
, 35.02% want)
Wait. I just looked in the results tab and realized that you forgot to include Ray to the post.12.95% chance and 45.05% want. He should be in between Waluigi and Karate Joe.
 

Glaciacott

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When I was a lad, my best friend and closest cousin both had N64's. I grew up with games like Mario Party 2, Banjo Kazooie, Star Fox 64, Ocarina of Time (Majora's Mask freaked me out back then, and still does in a way), Mario Kart, Smash, and, of course, my favorite game Mario 64. I actually asked for an N64 for Christmas that year... and somehow wound up with Nintendo's new toy: a GAMECUBE! So, I'm kind of in the middle: I fondly remember the N64 era, but I didn't actually own anything until the GC era.

Of course, I had a Gameboy back in the day... Super Mario Bros. Deluxe, Donkey Kong Country, Pokemon, Mario Land, Tetris, Mole Mania are games I all remember owning. Heck, I remember having to have people read me parts of dialogue from Pokemon that I couldn't understand. Ah, good times.
You guys are tiny. I grew up on Super Mario Bros. 2, Ice Climber and Balloon Fight. Of course, I grew up outside of the US, so while I was still enjoying the NES the States were already in full swing with the SNES. It was only until the Gamecube that I began buying the consoles at launch instead of a year before their cycle was ending.
 

Groose

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I don't know ... I've his/her posts considerably less since Omastar got rated. Maybe I just notice them less.
He disappeared a few weeks ago. Although he did get on my nerves a bit back in the day (possibly moreso than any poster before or since), I liked @MargnetMan23 .
Wait. I just looked in the results tab and realized that you forgot to include Ray to the post.12.95% chance and 45.05% want. He should be in between Waluigi and Karate Joe.
Well, thanks for letting me know. I'm planning an OP overhaul soon now that I can edit it.

Aw, nobody posted me? I guess I just need to post more often.
What you need is your Detective Gumkong avatar back. Your new one is good, but nothing else could compare. :p

Banjo: 0%
He's owned by Microsoft, now. I believe MS can be reasoned with, under normal circumstances, if money is involved... However, Banjo would be a system seller for a rival console. A few thousand 90's generation people at least would buy Wii-U's to play as Banjo in Smash; Microsoft probably wouldn't let this happen for any amount of money.
Banjo Want: 100%
I never owned a Banjo game. I never played a Banjo game. But Banjo is very much a part of my childhood.

You see, my closest cousin and my best friend had N64s when I was a lad. I got to try a good many games, especially multiplayer ones--but I did have my own saves on a selection of single-player titles. Examples: Star Fox, Ocarina (never got far, though), Mario 64.

Banjo Kazooie was not one of the games I had a save on, and I didn't even ever play it. I would, however, watch my cousin do so quite frequently. I was immersed by that game
even if I never even held the controller. It was... Absolutely breathtaking.

When I got an N64 and the Wii Virtual Console much later, I tried tracking down a bunch of the old games I had enjoyed. By this time, I have a collection of games that's quite comprehensive. The only game I'm missing from my old favorites? Banjo Kazooie. Yeah. There's a game store near me that has a copy... For a hefty $60 price tag. One day, I'm going to crack down and buy it.

Needless to say, I'd be thrilled to see Banjo in Smash. He should have been in Melee...

Jimmy T. x5
Oh, just so you guys know: I tally nominations before I post who I'm going to nominate. I always factor in my nominations when I do so. So if I forget to say I nominate someone on a given day, chances are there are already five noms for someone factored in. I just post them to be as open as possible.

Sable Prediction: 3.56%
We've always been hard on transforming characters. I doubt that will change.

DAY OVER
RETURN OF GROOSE
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Needless to say, I'd be thrilled to see Banjo in Smash. He should have been in Melee…
I wonder if anything with Nintendo or Rare would have changed if Banjo was added in Smash 64 or in Melee. I bet if they were included back then, then I bet Nintendo would have held onto Rare and the Banjo IP much tighter when Microsoft was trying to buy Rare.
 

BluePikmin11

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Well, there must be a sane reason why Banjo left the Nintendo headquarters, perhaps there would've been a much worse future if Rare was still with Nintendo. (That's just me though) >_>
 

Glaciacott

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Rare was beginning to falter, which is why the sale happened in the first place. I do wish, however, that NIntendo had attempted to buy some of their franchises, particularly Banjo-Kazooie and Conker, before Rare's departure.

Nowadays it's probably near impossible for that to happen. Microsoft knows too well how much people want those franchises back, and I'm surprised it's taken them this long to capitalize on it. They seem to have started with Killer Instinct, and definitely see them going from there. They wouldn't want to sell it and see Nintendo benefit extensively from it.
 

Golden Icarus

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I wonder if anything with Nintendo or Rare would have changed if Banjo was added in Smash 64 or in Melee. I bet if they were included back then, then I bet Nintendo would have held onto Rare and the Banjo IP much tighter when Microsoft was trying to buy Rare.
I prefer not to think of what could of been. :(
 

Groose

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Banjo (Banjo-Kazooie)
0.12% chance
72.57% want


Banjo tied Chancellor Cole for the bottom in chance, but had nearly a 10x higher want score; his want may have even broken into the top five in terms of newcomers. Yeah. Easily the largest separation between chance and want we've seen this far.

Today we're rating Prince Sable. Sable is another "Classic" or "Retro" Nintendo character; in addition to his sword, he brings his shapeshifting abilities to the plate. Please rate Prince Sable in chance and want.

Concept Time! For the next week or so, we'll be rating concepts and rerates nonstop; today we're starting with Decloned Ganondorf. Please rate the concept of Decloned Ganondorf in chance and want. If Beast Ganon were a transformation of Ganondorf and it made Ganondorf unique, it counts; if Beast Ganon is introduced as a separate entity, this does not count.

Tomorrow we're Returning to Dreamland to rate Dark Matter. Please predict how Dark Matter will fare in tomorrow's game; XenothiumX , Paulkagebein, and OcarinaofDoom all win extra noms today.

Please excuse the appearance of the OP; I just figured out how to edit it again and will update it soon. I'm also working on a results section where characters are ordered by want.
 

BluePikmin11

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Prince Sable Chance: 15% I think he has a decent chance of appearing as the retro character. The position of the series where it stands is probably around Muramase’s Castle. This series honestly needs the revival the most, the Gameboy classic is already gaining cult fans thanks to a certain fake leak and the English translation of the game. During pre-Melee, Prince Richard (Ironically) came 3rd with 9 votes to be a character. And it would be real neat if Sable himself became a character. He is already a decently unique character with the ability to transform into a frog and a snake, each with their own strengths and weaknesses to bring balance. Overall, I think the Gameboy Prince’s chances are pretty decent in my opinion, he deserves it the most and I will be the happiest man alive if Sable is ever confirmed as a newcomer.

Prince Sable Want: 100% I fully believe that Prince Sable needs to be a character, this retro character honestly needs more attention than it currently has, more than The Mysterious Muramase Castle and Panel de Pon combined.

Decloned Ganondorf chance: 56% I think the chances of him changing are pretty decent, since the Brawl cast seems to be improving to make each character distinct.

Decloned Ganondorf want: 100% Would gladly accept this new change for Ganondorf, it would be a nice way to improve the character with a fresh new transformation.

Dark Matter prediction: 2.54%

Nominations:
x5 Extensive Alternate Costumes.​
 

Louie G.

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PRINCE SABLE:

Chance: 12.5%
That's right. I do consider Sable somewhat likely. He's one of the big 5 retros I believe, behind Takamaru, Mach Rider, Lip, and Muddy Mole, all of which I consider major competition for the prince. That being said I do consider him the least likely of the bunch. With it's links to Link's Awakening (see what I did there? :awesome:), he has some historical impact to Nintendo, plus he could represent the Game Boy well.

Want: 80%
I like the little guy! He could have a fun and interesting moveset, I'd like to see what he could bring to the table. Although there are so many great retro options. I would prefer the 4 mentioned earlier, although I wouldn't complain if I saw all 5 of the retros. I like 'em all.

DECLONED GANONDORF:

Chance: 60%
I think it's very possible that he stays the same, although he's the character that needs it the most.

Want: 100%
This really has to happen.

Dark Matter Prediction: 3%
Waddle Dee or bust.

Noms: Muddy Mole x5
(Hey Blue, wanna help me out? We'll see which of the two do better, it'll be a competition!)
 

Groose

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Well, I'm only on mobile now and you can't edit thread titles on mobile anymore. Ouch. Well, could someone fix it for me? This will be the last time! For sure!
 

Pacack

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Prince Sable:

Chance: 3%
Eh, I'm pretty sure Takamaru, Lip, or even Muddy Mole will come before him. Still possible, but I don't think he's in the ranks of the elite Retros.

Want: 10%
Never really saw the appeal. I also hate three-in-one characters (glares at Pokemon Trainer). Still might be cool, though.


Extensive Changes to Ganondorf:

Chance: 10%
I trust Sakurai less than a lot of people when it comes to this.

Want: 100%
BUT I WANT IT SO BAD!!! I would practically die if we got a decloned Ganondorf, and, if he transformed into Ganon, my hype would be doubled.

Dark Matter Prediction: 1.4%?

I honestly have no idea. Not gonna be high, though.

Noms: Daitoryo x5
 

Hippopotasauce

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Prince of Sable likelihood: 3%
Want: 95%

Ganondorf Changes likelihood: 50%
Want: 50%

Dark Matter: .95%

Wrestler x5
 

BluePikmin11

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Popularity on Smashboards really doesn't mean much in the end.
The only reason those guys are the elite retros is because they have been said by Sakurai a few times before, which makes them the more likely retros picked. So far I hadn't found a true source to where he says he's a big fan of the game, hopefully I find it so he can become a popular retro pick.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
A lot of people love the bear and bird… I love rooting for the underdog, so I am hoping that they will make a truly triumphant return. They deserved something far more than just Nuts & Bolts. (not saying that it's a bad game however)
Prince Sable and Decloned Ganondorf have been added to this post.

I dunno much about Prince Sable, so I am gonna go to a higher priority to me first.
Decloned Ganondorf
Chance: 70%

I have a feeling that we will get Ganondorf with brand new moves. Ganondorf has been a clone for some ungodly reason. OK, it made sense in Melee because Sakurai wanted to expand the roster with a limited amount of time. People wanted Ganondorf in and since he has Captain Falcon's build, it would have been easier to make him a clone rather than give him his own moveset. With Brawl, they had more time… but Ganondorf still had a lot of moves similar to Captain Falcon. An often brought up suggestion is to give Ganondorf a sword and Sakurai acknowledges this by teasing us with his Down Taunt where Ganondorf shows us his sword and puts it away.
With Bowser and Pit getting overhauls, how can you not think about Ganondorf getting one? It's not only highly wanted, but it's also very necessary.
Why is it wanted? Ganondorf is the freaking King of Evil! He has so much material to work with! The animations of his attacks in Brawl scream Ganondorf, but that only masks the fact that they are still similar to Captain Falcon's. No matter how cool the Warlock Punch's animations are, it's still a slow Falcon Punch. He can use Dead Man's Volley (tennis) as his neutral special, keep his side special, make him teleport with his up special, and make him throw his trident with his down special. For his attacks, he can use both physical attacks and use the Sword of the Sages to attack with. Heck, they can take some inspiration from the Demise fight in Skyward Sword! The fact that Sakurai glossed over what Ganondorf can do while developing Brawl is mind-boggling.
Why is it necessary? Look at where he is at on the tier list! He is absolute bottom with poor match-ups! Bowser is very much considered a bad character by the Smash community. However, look at all of the buffs Sakurai gave to Bowser. He made Bowser more faster, more agile, and more powerful. In addition to that, he got brand new animations and attacks; Bowser didn't really need these, but he got them! Ganondorf is a character that is in absolute dire need for buffs and an overhaul is not a bad idea. In Brawl, Ganondorf has some of Captain Falcon's more quick attacks while being a slow and heavy fighter… which doesn't suit his play style at all.
However, there are two things that go against a Decloned Ganondorf:
1. We don't know how high up on the priority list he is on. While the only way Ganondorf could get cut is if Sakurai and his development team got drunk and decided that it would be a good idea to cut him, we don't know if Ganondorf is a character that is highly emphasized on by Sakurai. He could easily just buff him and still keep him as a semi-clone.
2. People are still resistant to this. People like his moveset and don't want him to give it up. People have said to declone Ganondorf and give his moveset to Black Shadow, but I don't think that he stands too much of a chance to get added in this game.
Overall, I find that getting a decloned Ganondorf is more likely than not. He is a character that a majority of people want to see get decloned, he is a highly cherished Zelda character that is also one of the most important in the series, and characters that don't need to get new moves are getting them anyway. There should be no excuse as to why Ganondorf shouldn't be decloned in my opinion.
The King of Evil hasn't been seen yet… does Sakurai want to surprise us? This could be the case.
Want: 100%
I love the Zelda franchise. When I first played Ocarina of Time, I was honestly frightened by Ganondorf when he attacked Young Link. And then that battle at the end… it was so freaking awesome! But, Ganondorf became my absolute favorite villain after Twilight Princess. He is a manipulator, the essence of pure evil, a great and powerful man who can only be summed up as a demon. He is… the King of Evil. When I saw what he could do in Twilight Princess and in other Zelda games, I was disappointed that Ganondorf didn't get new moves in Brawl. Again, he is the KING OF EVIL! He deserves far more respect than what he gets by Sakurai in Smash. Again, I love Bowser's new moves, but I don't find them to be highly needed to buff him. However, if we are giving Bowser new moves to buff him, then Ganondorf deserves new moves to buff him as well.
If I could list the 10 most wanted things that I want to see in SSB4, a Decloned Ganondorf would be on that list. I want to feel like I am playing as the King of Evil Ganondorf, not a slower Captain Falcon. I would be SERIOUSLY disappointed if he doesn't get any new moves or a new play style. Ganondorf deserves them.

Prince Sable
Chance:
5%

I guess he has a shot, not a big one though. He is a highly obscure character that not many people have heard of. Heck, he wasn't in Captain Rainbow, a game full of obscure Nintendo characters. When it comes to retros, the most wanted one is Takamaru, not this guy. He can also transform, but I don't hold him against 3DS limitations as we haven't seen Sheik or the Pokemon Trainer yet to really condemn him impossible. However, I dunno if his other forms are suitable for fighters. The frog and snake don't look designed to be in a game like this, unlike the Pokemon the Pokemon Trainer has. I just find this retro pick to be highly unlikely. To me, it's Takamaru or bust.
Want: 0%
Not interested.

Dark Matter Prediction: 1.92%
Fun fact! This is the second Kirby character that we are rating on! Yup! The only one that we have rated is Bandana Dee. I guess that could say something.

Nominations: Bomberman 5x
 
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OcarinaOfDoom

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Sable: 2%
Want: 10%
Dorf changes: 50%
Want: 100%
Dark Matter: 1.3%
Nominate:
Yarne and Owain x 10
Best use of extra nominations ever.
 

Xenigma

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Prince Sable - 0%
An incredibly obscure retro with no good reason to be resurrected in Smash. The only chance Sable has is Sakurai picking an obscure retro character purely for the sake of picking an obscure retro character, which doesn't really make any sense.
Want - 0% - Waste of a character slot, no matter how unique he could be.

Decloned Ganondorf - 25%
I wish I could rate this higher, but regardless of what fans may want, he did make it to Brawl without any changes, so history could repeat itself. That said, with some characters already seeing changes (particularly Pit), it's plenty plausible, and again, fans definitely want this.
Want - 75% - I'd be a bit nostalgic for losing slow super-strong Falcon, but it'd be better for the game to have a unique Ganondorf.

Dark Matter Prediction - 0.5%
Okay, this round isn't looking as zero-filled as hoped. Maybe this fairly obscure Kirby villain will fare better?

Nominations
Sheik x5

(Time to look up obscure in a thesaurus...)
 

Sid-cada

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The Prince of Sable

Chance - 1.5% - I can at least see Sakurai going over his series at one point, if he hasn't already. While it's possible he might catch his eye, I'm not entirely certain he's quite something that Sakurai is looking for.

Want - 50% - Uncertain on how to feel on this one. I'd like a bit more representation of this franchise, but playable...eh. Still, I'd like some representation, like music or a trophy. In fact, turning him into an Assist Trophy, as a coin-flip, powerful snake or jokey frog, would be about perfect for me.


Ganondorf Changes

Chance - 70% - Quite likely, but not very. While expecting more differentiation, I'm not 100% on him being completely de-cloned. There's also not enough info, I feel, to determine what characters are getting rebooted.

Want - 60% - Something I'd like to see. Definitely a want, though I can't get very enthusiastic on new move sets.


Dark Matter Prediction - 2.5% - While seemingly important enough to have a bit of a boost, there are too many downsides to him. The bandanna wearers are also going to cannibalize him.

Nominations
I'd like to personally apologize for each and every one of you in this thread. But there has been a parasite on the nominations list sense this list started, and it's time to get rid of him for good. I don't like it any more that you guys, but someone's gotta do it. Move over Cole, Yarne, Orwain, and Yarne and Orwain, for soon we shall vote on what is the lowest possible scoring character yet...

Scrooge McDuck x5
 

Smasher 101

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Honestly didn't think Banjo and Kazooie would reach the top five in want. Pretty glad they did though!

Prince Sable's chances: 3% - Rather obscure, don't see him getting in over, say, Takamaru, Mach Rider, or Lip.
Want: 55% - Slightly interested.

Decloned Ganondorf: 50% - It's certainly possible. We've seen vets get changed up already and there are definitely people that want this.
Want: 50% - I'm fine with him being changed up; I'm fine with him remaining as a semi-clone. I'm good either way as long as he stays in the game.

Dark Matter prediction: 0.84% - Bandana Dee.

Muddy Mole x5
 
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Hippopotasauce

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Prince Sable - 0%
An incredibly obscure retro with no good reason to be resurrected in Smash. The only chance Sable has is Sakurai picking an obscure retro character purely for the sake of picking an obscure retro character, which doesn't really make any sense.
Is that not the reason for every retro character?
The Ice Climbers aren't exactly icons.
 

FalKoopa

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Thread title has been changed.

Prince Sable:
Likelihood: 3%
It's pretty muddled when it comes to retros. All I can say is that Takamaru is slightly better off than the rest.

Want: 45%
Not too shabby.

Decloned Ganondorf:
Likelihood: 8%
Maybe a new move or two. Seeing how Toon Link is essentially unchanged, I doubt we'll get any major changes in Ganondorf's moveset.

Want: 55%
I hardly ever use him, so I don't really care. It would be nice to see him stop copying Captain Falcon though. :p
 
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