Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Starcutter]

I notice a lot of these characters I couldn't care less about are getting rated. which is unfortunate to me since there's still a lot of people I want rated.


but I digress.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Ganon


35% Chance

I feel Ganon is a little underrated here. If we want to add a new Zelda rep, it has to be someone big. That leaves Ganon, Tetra, Tingle, and Impa. However, I feel Ganon would be the most unique and most important. With his Trident and Magic, he could easily not be a clone. He also is the most reoccurring character in Zelda not to be in Smash. Unique, important, I see him as a contender, and more likely than the competition.

60% want

I feel he is interesting, but I think Zelda with 4 reps is fine...


Roy

50% chance

It all hinges on if Sakurai thinks he could be an interesting and unique character. Can he? Yes. Will he? It could go either way...

75% Want

Only 75 to not interfere with my boy MyUnit...

Nominating MyUnit/Robin/Tactician/Avatar/Whatever you call him x5

Keep in mind that having both Ganon and Ganondorf would probably be redundant.

 

[Smasher 101]

Ganon's chances: 3% - I think there's almost no chance of this replacing or appearing alongside Ganondorf. I don't think Ganon being a transformation or something like that is likely either.
Want: 5% - Not that interested.

Roy's chances: 40% - About a 15% increase from my last rating. I now find him and Chrom to be about equal in likelihood.
Want: 30% - My want has decreased though. While I would be ok with his return there are others from Fire Emblem that I would prefer.

Blaziken: 2.66%

Prince Sable x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Keep in mind that having both Ganon and Ganondorf would probably be redundant.

Keep in mind we already have Toon Link and Link, and Toon Zelda is still requested.

 

[loganhogan]

Sexy Beast Ganon
chance: 5% Like the others said he's a final smash, but if he changes the final smash and turns in into playable mechanic during his final smash would that count?
want: 50% However I wouldn't mind if we ditched Ganondorf's moveset and even replaced him with Beast Ganon.

Roy
chance: 50%
Last time I gave him a 30% because at the time I thought Chrom surely had to be the one guy destined for Smash bros. Yet after Rosalina's reveal I've been thinking a lot about the dark horse candidates you know. Although I wouldn't count Roy as a dark horse, many people think it's between him or Chrom, but compared to Chrom he kind of is. What helps Roy is his red hair, and being part of the forbidden 7 he can easily stand out more than Chrom especially if Ike stays. What hurts him? There a lot of newer characters that, like Rosalina, can stand out even more than Roy; it could also easily hurt him that he was a clone.

want: 5%
My want has decreased a lot though, there are many other Fire Emblem characters I'd enjoy and prefer more than Roy.

x5 Funky Kong

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ganon
Chance: 4% - I can actually see this being a possibility, we already have two Links after all.
Want: 37% - Smash needs more big and burly monsters.

Roy
Chance: 40% - I think Sakurai is more likely to prioritize newer Fire Emblem characters.
Want: 30% - I would strongly prefer Chrom, Lucina, Avatar, or Anna.

Blaziken prediction: 1.6%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[SchAlternate]

NO!! NOT INTO THE PIT!! IT BUUURNS!!!
Chances: 5% - Yeah, I doubt GanonDORF is getting replaced by his beastly form.
Want: 25% - Either him replacing Dorf, or fusing Ganon's design with Dorf's. I'd so hope it's the latter.

Spoiler

HOH! HOH! HOH! IT'S A JUMPY LITTLE ROY!
Chances: 45% - If Fire Emblem gets a third FE character, it's either him or Chrom or some other unlikely sucker from FE:A.
Want: 95% - Gotta give him credit for getting FE being released internationally, huh?

Flamin' Cockfighter
Prediction: 9.8% - I don't even know anymore.

NOMINATIONS
Zero X5

 

[Aqua Rock X]

GANON

Chance: 1% - I don't know, considering we have the 'dorf. I think Sakurai would seem satisfied with just the human form.

Want: 55% - I like the idea of a playable Final Smash form similar to ZZS. Otherwise, meh.

ROY

Chance: 75% - An easy clone that's highly wanted in Japan? I think his chances are pretty good!

Want: 55% - Mostly indifferent, but it would be nice to see an old vet come back home.

Blaziken Prediction: 10% - Lucario's rival in terms of speculation back in the old Brawl days. He's been reinvented by the 6th Gen, so he might seem to higher than usual.

Nominations:
Cranky Kong x5

 

[McDuckletts]

The greatest face in all of Korodai!
Chance: 1%
Very unlikely. Not only is Ganondorf the more well known variation of the character, but I just can't see Beast Ganon working in Smash. Maybe as a new FS. Maybe...
Want: 30%
mite b cool

*le roy face*
Chance: 50%
A very popular choice for Smash 4, but probably won't make the cut due to his moveset being similar to Marth's.
Want: 10%
Meh. I want new character, dammit!

KFC Spicy Bucket prediction: 3.27%
Not the worst choice for a new Pokemon character, but...Nah.

Nominations: B-K X5

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Ganon - 1.15%
people say that ganondorf and Ganon can't be in the same game, for being theoretically the same person despite being a different form, well toon link basically deflates this argument, but you do have to remember that he is part of ganondorf's final smash, along with heavy competition, it will be surprising that they chose him over someone like tingle to be honest
Want - 0

Roy - 39.47%
before I thought Chrom was the most likely fire emblem newcomer, but over time, now I believe that spot actually belongs to roy (yes he counts as a newcomer), sakurai has shown that the most deadfront characters will not enter, just because of popularity, revelency, or/and importance, this helps roy because of actally being a veteran, along with seeming to be one of the most die hard characters fans ask for, along with marth showing that you do not need to be a focus of a game in order to advertise it also helps in his favor too, he seems to be have the best chance
want - 55%
he's not my boy, he's far from it actually, but I prefer him over most fire emblem characters
blaziken - 1.13%
this chicken's goose is cooked
nominations
IkeX5

 

[NickerBocker]

Ganon
Chance: 2%
Want: 10%
Just fix Ganondorf and its all good.

Roy
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%
While I think hes better than Chrom, I would much prefer Robin, or Myunit to become playable.

Blaziken: 1%

Nominations:
DLC characters x5

 

[Arcanir]

Beast Ganon
Chances: 5% Him and Ganondorf are the same character and not even in a reincarnation type way like Link and Toon Link and I don't see them pulling a transformation mechanic with the character.
Want: 5% Not interested in the idea really.

Roy
Chances: 30% He's got popularity on his side and that's a plus, but unlike Mewtwo that's all he has going for him.
Want: 30% I like him in Smash, but he bores me in FE and I prefer other characters over him.

 

[Morbi]

Beast Ganon

Chances: 1%
That would be an unnecessary addition. Sakurai only likes adding additional characters of the same name if they happen to have the prefix "Toon" in front of them. Haha... but seriously. I don't know why they would scrap a perfectly good Final Smash to make him playable... unless it was in the form of an updated Final Smash that is.

Want: 100%
Really, do I need to explain this one? HE IS EPIC.

Roy

Chances: 50%
50/50 between Roy and Chrom.

Want: 50%
50/50 between Roy and Chrom.

 

[Rouge]

Beast Ganon
Chance: 5% - Ganondorf being a clone has always been a controversial thing and it's been heavily requested that he get a completely different moveset for two games now. There is a chance that if they do indeed reform Ganon entirely, they will make him a beast. But that'd be a pretty big risk and a pretty stupid one.

Want: 0% - I prefer my Ganon to surf the thin line between beast and human, thank you.

Roy

Chance: 15% - I think you guys (for the most part) are overestimating his odds. Sure, he has Japanese popularity which is the most significant sort of popularity, but unlike Mewtwo, Roy hasn't done anything note-worthy since Melee besides brief cameo appearances in FE7 and Awakening (yes, I know that his FE game was released after Melee, but you know what I mean). The hype for Roy is probably something that they want to kill actually, since FE has long since moved on and Sakurai asks Intelligent System's opinion before choosing the FE roster. There would be very little sense in bringing him back after a 12 year hiatus from Smash Bros. I'm confident that an Awakening character is happening, so that would leave replacing Ike as Roy's biggest shot, if the series even gets 3 reps.

Want - 70% - I really enjoyed playing as Roy in Melee, he was one of my mains for sure. As I mentioned earlier, I don't see it happening, but if he did return at the expense of an Awakening rep, I'd be pretty happy. Another great thing would be that it may encourage an FE6 remake, which would be sweet. Why 70 instead of 100, then? In the actual game, I find Roy to be such a middle of the road bore. I think his "personality" in Melee is completely off from what it is in FE6, but I guess Sakurai was mainly just guessing and wanting to make the clone distinct from Marth. Still, we'd probably get the Melee Roy we love so much, so it's not that big of an issue.

 

[Starbound]

Beast Ganon

Chances: 1%
That would be an unnecessary addition. Sakurai only likes adding additional characters of the same name if they happen to have the prefix "Toon" in front of them.

 

[Morbi]

I was mostly joking, I thought it was obvious. NVM, I forgot my joking emote.

 

[DarkKry4]

Ganon
Chance - 1%
Want - 0%

Roy
Chance - 64%
Sakurai might throw a bone to fans..... i feeel like he has somewhat of a chance
Want - 0%
I hate sword characters....

Blaziken - 4%

Tiny Kong 5x

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I think the proper statement would be that Sakurai only adds the same character twice if they make good last minute additions.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Ganon chances: 20%. Ganon's chances mostly depend upon whether or not they'd want to include him over Ganondorf. And while ALBW is a minor handheld title to hold us over until the next main console game, it's also important to note that Ganondorf hasn't been all that prominent in Zelda recently either. His only appearances have been in two remakes, meaning it's very much up for debate which one is more "important" right now. But overall I'd say Ganondorf is still more iconic to modern Zelda than Ganon is, and Ganondorf is arguably the more popular of the two as well. But Ganon at least has a shot, if only as a transformation of Ganondorf.

Want: 35%. I definitely prefer Ganondorf. He just feels like a more prominent villain than Ganon, who's mostly just a big monster you fight. And while I know that's more to do with the games having much more prominent stories in general after Ocarina of Time than the characters themselves I still just prefer Ganondorf. At least they can't make Ganon a Captain Falcon clone, though.

Roy chances: 25%. I know people here hate the "relevance" argument, but Sakurai really is likely to prioritize newer Fire Emblem characters because the games introduce new protagonists a lot. Marth is confirmed and Chrom is from the newest Fire Emblem game, one which was incredibly well-recieved, may I add. Roy's popularity mostly stems from the fact that he was in Melee, and as it is they're way more likely to go for the Brawl veteran. Who knows, maybe they'll get tired of "bishonen blue-haired sword user" and go for Roy instead.

Want: 0%. Don't care for him at all, honestly.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Ganon chances: 20%. Ganon's chances mostly depend upon whether or not they'd want to include him over Ganondorf. And while ALBW is a minor handheld title to hold us over until the next main console game, it's also important to note that Ganondorf hasn't been all that prominent in Zelda recently either. His only appearances have been in two remakes, meaning it's very much up for debate which one is more "important" right now. But overall I'd say Ganondorf is still more iconic to modern Zelda than Ganon is, and Ganondorf is arguably the more popular of the two as well. But Ganon at least has a shot, if only as a transformation of Ganondorf.

Want: 35%. I definitely prefer Ganondorf. He just feels like a more prominent villain than Ganon, who's mostly just a big monster you fight. And while I know that's more to do with the games having much more prominent stories in general after Ocarina of Time than the characters themselves I still just prefer Ganondorf. At least they can't make Ganon a Captain Falcon clone, though.

Roy chances: 25%. I know people here hate the "relevance" argument, but Sakurai really is likely to prioritize newer Fire Emblem characters because the games introduce new protagonists a lot. Marth is confirmed and Chrom is from the newest Fire Emblem game, one which was incredibly well-recieved, may I add. Roy's popularity mostly stems from the fact that he was in Melee, and as it is they're way more likely to go for the Brawl veteran. Who knows, maybe they'll get tired of "bishonen blue-haired sword user" and go for Roy instead.

Want: 0%. Don't care for him at all, honestly.

Blaziken rating: 1%. Does anybody actually expect a gen 3 rep? There isn't even any guarantee gen 5 will get a rep, they're not going to waste time making Lucario but with fire.

Cranky X5

 

[Knight Dude]

Beast Ganon chances: 5%:
It's not impossible. And Beast Ganon is an almost equally iconic version of the character. But he's not needed with the Human Ganondorf still around. Like at all. Sakurai and the other devs so far seem to like the idea of the Triforce characters and a younger Link. I don't see that changing. The only reason that Toon Zelda was considered is that she would be an easy clone. But Beast Ganon might not have the luxury, given that his body is shaped differently and wouldn't be able to copy Human Ganon's kicks properly. And not to mention, he is almost always seen with a Trident, rather than a sword. So he doesn't have anyone to clone off of.

Character Want: 10%:
I can say that he could be unique. So for that alone he gets 10 points. Which should make someone want a character. But we already have one version of Ganondorf, and I really don't see the need for another. All of the time that could be spent on Beast Ganon, should be used for making Human Ganondorf even more unique. Along with making him a better character overall. That's all I want. I like Ganondorf, and I would like for him to step more out of Falcon's shadow. The devs did a decent job at making him more his own character, even though he was low tier. So that needs to be fixed too. But I know he'll keep some moves though. So that Melee and Brawl players are still familiar with him.

Roy chances: 50%:

He was going to be added in Brawl, but was a low priority character. And he is a clone, so he can be seen as expendable in a way. I see this issue coming back to bite him again. Before Roy had to compete with nearly the entire Melee roster. Now he has to do so again with nearly the entire Brawl roster and new characters. And unlike Mewtwo, Roy doesn't have a moveset to call all his own. We don't even know if Fire Emblem is going to get three characters this time around. And Ike getting cut, while not impossible, isn't super likely given that no one else in Smash fights quite like he does.

Character Want: 50%:

I don't hate the guy. But unless he's more like Luigi/Wolf and less like Toon Link, I can do without him. We already have a good amount of Semi-Clones that could use some more tweaking to stand out even more. I don't particularly like the idea of adding another one to Smash right now. Not unless their moves are able to still standout enough on their own. Maybe as DLC.

 

[Louie G.]

GANON:

Chance: 4%
Beast Ganon is the original Ganondorf I suppose, but I'm just not feeling it. One or the other I think, and I think Beast Ganon is better off a Final Smash.

Want: 50%
Meh.

ROY:
Chance: 35%
I'll admit, Roy has a chance. But there are quite a few things going against him. Sakurai looks to be trying to add more unique characters, so unless Roy is de-cloned I don't know if he's worth putting in unless it's simply because of his requests. Also, Fire Emblem and Pokémon are two series that have characters that actually benefit from relevance. I feel like an Awakening rep is the most likely way to go, hate it or not. Unless FE14 is really a Roy remake.

Want: 45%
I'm sort of less than indifferent to this. I don't really care too much about Fire Emblem representation, but I feel that Smashboards itself has driven me away from Roy. Given, I don't dislike Roy. But I would rather have a new and unique character In Smash 4 instead. Someone like Lyn or Anna would be ideal for me, characters that make sense and can be very unique, yet aren't Chrom or Roy.

Blaziken: 2.2%
I guess the event helps a bit.

Noms: Starfy x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ganon
Chance 5%
Ganondorf's made his place in Smash Bros. and has recurred in two games now, so unless they wanna be really creative with this game, I doubt he'll be replaced. But given how unpopular Ganondorf's moveset is in the Smash Bros. games, I still wouldn't say it's impossible.
Want 80%
I would definitely prefer this over our current Ganon. He would guarantee that we'd finally get a unique moveset for Ganondorf, and not have to put up with slow, clunky, Captain Falcon clone.

Roy
Chance 20%
His chances are hindered by Chrom and Robin, and a bit by Lucina, Anna, and Lyn, and also the fact that we might not even get a third Fire Emblem character. All this combined doesn't exactly scream "likely" to me, but definitely not impossible.
Want 50%
I don't have much of an opinion on Fire Emblem characters in Smash.

Blaziken prediction 3.2%

Nominations
Jimmy T. x5

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Ganon 5%
...Could be a cool boss. Or since twilight princess is going to be slightly outdated, he may just be Ganondorf's final smash. But hes not going to get a character on his own.
want 30%

Roy 10%
My honest opinion is that Roy will only come back if FE14 is a remake of FE6. I have other reasons why but you've probably seen them before, especially if you're reading everyone's predictions.
want 15%

 

[Natz~]

Ganon: 1%
it'll be a shock if this happens >_>
want: 0%
no.......
Roy: 25%
he seems to have an okay chance plus he seems wanted, that sounds good,
want: 50%
better than chrom
prediction: 0.8%
gen 3 is outdated
Nominations amaterasu+5

 

[XenothiumX]

Ganon
Likelihood: 0.1%

Want: 51%

Roy
Likelihood: 15%

Want: 10%
I wouldn't be upset at his return but, I'd rather see many other Fire Emblem characters make it in first.

Blaziken
Prediction: 0.2%

Nominations:
Slippy x5

 

[Groose]

I'll update when I get some time, OK? Christmastime is busy.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Ganon:
Chance 5%: It just seems to be scraping the bottom of the barrel

Want as new character 0%/ as a transformation after final smash like ZSS: 50%

Roy
Chance: 20%
There is too much against him such as:
- Probably only 2 fire emblem reps (why does a franchise with such low sales really warrant 3 spots?)
- Marth + Ike
- Marth + Chrom
- Marth + Chrom and Lucina
- Marth + Ike + Chrom
- Marth + Ike + Chrom and Lucina
- Roy is a clone

Want 50%:

I love roy, he is one of my mains in melee. With that being said, I would much rather have them spend time on a new, unique character.

Blaziken 2%:

Noms:
Declone Ganondorf x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Ganon: 3%
As long as Ganondorf is still around, then no.

Want: 20%
Could be more interesting than Ganondorf currently is...or Ganondorf's moveset could be edited.

Roy: 2.5%

Want: 7.5%

420 Blazeitken prediction: 1.06%

Nominate:
Marina (Mischief Makers) x5

 

[SethTheMage]

Beast Ganon:

Chance - 5%
Unfortunately, I don't see him as very likely. *SPOILERS FOR A LINK BETWEEN WORLDS* He was in ALBW for like 5 seconds before getting possessed by Yuga, but other than that, he hasn't been in a Zelda game since 4 Swords Adventure.

Want - 70%
I have always preferred this version of Ganon over Ganondorf. A massive pig monster with a trident and dark magic has a lot of potential for an interesting moveset. Plus, he would represent the pre-Ocarina days of Zelda. Piggy Ganon FTW!


Roy:

Chance - 60%
I'd say his odds are pretty decent. He was highly requested to return in Japan around the time when Sakurai was deciding the roster (according to Cronobound's findings), and he has a redesign that Sakurai could draw inspiration from.

Want - 70%
He was my main in Melee, and I was furious that he didn't make it into Brawl, but since he has been revived and made better in Project M, I'm not going to be too butthurt if he doesn't make it this time around. Plus, if he gets decloned and redesigned, I would probably lose that familiar moveset and playstyle that made me like him in the first place.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Beast Ganon:

Chance: 0%. He's a FS. That's like making Mario Finale a character.
Want: 0%. No thanks.

Roy:
Chance: 50% - could go either way, people want him, but being removed from Brawl hurts his chances IMO.
Want: 100% - Bring him back!

Blaziken Prediction: 2.0

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Chance: 0%. He's a FS. That's like making Mario Finale a character.

Except Ganon is actually a character?????

 

[Curious Villager]

Chance: 0%. He's a FS. That's like making Mario Finale a character.

Lol wut?

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Lol wut?

my point is, Beast Ganon's a FS and that's the best he'll get.

 

[BlitznBurst]

my point is, Beast Ganon's a FS and that's the best he'll get.

Except Ganon is actually a major Zelda character

It's just that he's ovewshadowed by anotehr major Zelda character

 

[Curious Villager]

my point is, Beast Ganon's a FS and that's the best he'll get.

By that logic Charizard would have remained a Pokeball pokemon as he was in the previous two games, or Ridley will remain a boss just like he was in Brawl.

I know Ganon is very unlikely and he most likely will be a final smash again in this game. But you compared a character with an attack which I found the most silly.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Ganon is actually a character. It's a beast form of Ganondorf that is often seen wielding a magic trident.

It's not a good comparison. Making the version of Ganon in TP playable seems rather odd, (given how that version is a massive, unarmed, quadrupedal beast) but other versions would do just fine. Although I believe Ganon has a very, vey low chance for many reasons, at least he'd make sense as a playable character in some regards. It would be completely weird if Mario's non-living Final Smash attack was playable.

 

[Alban712]

Starfy is deconfirmed, Groose. You can remove him from the list

 

[Alban712]

Double post

 

[XenothiumX]

Hey Groose you were right about the Luma being too similar to Starfy.