Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[NickerBocker]

Excitebiker
Chance: 5%
Want: 60%
Of retro characters, this one both interests me and doubt. I would be interested to see how a moveset would work, but I have doubts that it would work in any way with a bike. I do like the character, the Excitebiker is one of the retros I actually have experience with.

Klonoa: 3.4%

Nominations:
Goemon x5

Hey welcome back Groose glad youre dping okay. You should have a drink to celebrate



Grouse... Groose... close enough.

 

[BlitznBurst]

Excitebiker chances: 10%. Sakurai has already said he doesn't want him in the game, but that was years ago and he's already changed his mind on at least one character who was previously deemed "impossible"

Want: 0%.

Klonoa prediction: 1%.

Ganon X5

 

[Groose]

I know I should be using it to update the OP, but I used my free time earlier today searching for a Japanese version of Rate Their Chances. I didn't find one (yet), but I did find a blog discussing character likelihoods. I stopped reading it, however, when they dismissed K. Rool for being owned by Rare. UGH. Stupidity may be an American invention, but it exists across the world now, gentlemen.

Anywho, I'm just starting that Day-Ending thing. I suggest you hurry up and get your thoughts in, because there isn't but 45 minutes left of today.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I know I should be using it to update the OP, but I used my free time earlier today searching for a Japanese version of Rate Their Chances. I didn't find one (yet), but I did find a blog discussing character likelihoods. I stopped reading it, however, when they dismissed K. Rool for being owned by Rare. UGH. Stupidity may be an American invention, but it exists across the world now, gentlemen.

Anywho, I'm just starting that Day-Ending thing. I suggest you hurry up and get your thoughts in, because there isn't but 45 minutes left of today.

well anyway, like I said before I don't think its likely that'll we'll find a Japanese rate their chance board, but to some extent, if we keep searching we may be able to find something Japanese

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

well anyway, like I said before I don't think its likely that'll we'll find a Japanese rate their chance board, but to some extent, if we keep searching we may be able to find something Japanese

I think Groose might've been talking about http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=ikusaba.client.jp/character/top.htm, which is interesting, to say the least.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

I think Groose might've been talking about http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=ikusaba.client.jp/character/top.htm, which is interesting, to say the least.

it won't let me connect to the link mate, what is it?
Edit: nevermind, Its open now mate
plus I was just saying that finding a Japanese rate their chance is unlikely

 

[Louie G.]

Man this GIF is everywhere now.

 

[Groose]

I think Groose might've been talking about http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=ikusaba.client.jp/character/top.htm, which is interesting, to say the least.

No, not that one.

Excitebiker Chance: 1%
Yeah. Difficulty to program, design, and all that jazz, right? I don't think that's changed... probably only worsened since now they have to make all characters in HD and 3D. Oh, and I forgot to mention: if the whole bike thing can be done, Mach Rider is still the more likely of the two; Sakurai likes him a lot.

Excitebiker Want: 40%
I wouldn't object too loudly, but it would be a major, major time sink. Still, he'd be really, really unique.

Klonoa Prediction: 1.32%
Waka waka waka waka waka waka...

Groose x5

DAY OVER​

​

RETURN OF GROOSE​

 

[Groose]

Excitebiker (Excitebike)
7.15% chance
33.96% want

VROOOM! Excitebiker didn't really race to a good chance score, but his want score did exceed a third...

Today we're rating Klonoa! Although he's in the shadow of Pac-Man and maybe even Lloyd, this Namco character has a very respectable following. Will it be enough to get him into the Smash? Please rate Klonoa in chance and want today.

Tomorrow we'll be rating Matthew; although Isaac is better known as the hero of Golden Sun, his son is the series' most recent protagonist. Please predict how Matthew will do in tomorrow's game. Today's nominations have been won by Spears in Smash Bros.

Smell ya later, losers!

 

[BluePikmin11]

Klonoa Chance: 1%
Klonoa Want: 30%
Matthew Prediction: 4.5% I don't get sometimes why people want Matthew over Isaac.
Nominations: x5 Nintendog.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

Klonoa - 0.17%
he has it better than most Namco characters, but that is about it, pacman takes up the biggest spot, Lloyd takes up the scraps and the shadow, and then klonoa is just left behind, the only thing he has is minor popularity. its noticeable but far form enough.
want - 49%
mostly indifferent
matthew - 3.18
not only does Isaac is the more iconic protagonist, and that recently means little to smash, this board is pro Isaac, I'll be surprised if he makes it up to five percent
nominations:
starfyX3
Dark pitX1
RoyX1

 

[Deleted member]

Smell ya later, losers!

Blue?!

Klonoa has been added to this post.

Klonoa
Chance: 0%
Klonoa is a very obscure Namco character. He has fans, but he isn't exactly demanded at all and the consensus is that the Namco character that we could potentially get will be someone from Tekken, Soul Calibur, Tales of, or it could be Pac-Man himself. Due to Klonoa's obscurity, this hurts his chances significantly as he has too much competition from other characters. Also, Sakurai mentioned that 3rd party characters are special cases that are leagues of their own. Is Klonoa on the same level as Sonic or Mega Man?
Overall, Klonoa's obscurity hurts his chances as he really isn't an all-star video game character.
Want: 15%
I don't want him, but I'm fine with him over Pac-Man. That being said, the 3rd party character I want is Bomberman.

Matthew Prediction: 5.70%
I don't know? All I know is that we will get Issac before Matthew since Issac is pretty much the face of Golden Sun. Issac alone will prevail to give Matthew a low chance rating.

Nominations: Ninten 5x
Love, oh love.
(yay! I finished the Eight Melodies!)

 

[Smasher 101]

Klonoa's chances: 0%
Want: 50% - Interests me more than Pac-Man or Lloyd, still don't care that much though.

Matthew prediction: 2.28%

Prince Sable x5

 

[jaytalks]

Klonoa:
Chances: 0%
Klonoa isn't getting in over Pac-Man. He's such a low profile character from such a small series that he hardly fits Sakurai's criteria for third party characters.
Want: 0%
Never played a Klonoa game unfortunately. Never had the desire to as well, hence the low rating.

Matthew Prediction: Isaac blah blah blah first.
5.32%

Nominations:
Micaiah x 5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Klonoa
Chance 1%
Pac-Man.
Want 0%
Lloyd Irving.

Matthew 8.5%

Nominations
Jimmy T. x5

 

[jaytalks]

Klonoa
Chance 1%
Pac-Man.
Want 0%
Lloyd Irving.

Said what I think in much less words.

 

[NickerBocker]

Klonoa
Chance: 0.01%
Want: 0%

Matthew: 3.5%

Nominations:
Goemon x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

Klonoa: 0.11%
Want: 0%

Matthew: 5.99%

x5 Bowser Jr. [Shadow Mario]

 

[YoshiandToad]

Klonoa
Chance 1%
Pac-Man.
Want 0%
Lloyd Irving.

Klonoa
Chance: 3%
Okay here's the deal Smash fans. Klonoa is OBVIOUSLY not going to be selected over the mascot upon his hat. Pac-Man's chances are higher. That said, I do believe he has a better chance than any other Namco character that doesn't go WAKKA WAKKA WAKKA.
First of all if you think a Tekken or Soul Calibur character has a better chance than this guy, I'm not sure if you've been paying attention. Firstly they're fighting game characters, realistic video game humans at that. Klonoa is also more of a secondary mascot to Namco appearing in many a cameo in other Namco games(although considerably less than Pac-Man, obviously. Especially since every time Klonoa makes an Cameo, so does Pac thanks to his hat) such as the Tales series(As a summon, outfits, statues, a plushie, etc) and Soul Calibur V as unlockable/DLC costume piece.

Whilst his series doesn't sell as much as Tekken or Soul Calibur, like Pac-Man, Namco likes to put him in their games as references. His last game was in 2009; a wii remake so that wasn't THAT long ago.

Still; he has to compete with Pac-Man, so that kind of screws him over. At least his looks fit nicely alongside Sonic though!

Want: 20%
I want Klonoa more than I want a Tales character, a Tekken or a Soul Calibur character. But he's unfortunately not legendary. So it's Pac-Man or bust for Namco rep for me. His platformers are solid, if a little linear and as a character he comes off charming; probably more so than Pac himself, but as a general self imposed rule, I'll only support a third party rep if I consider them an actual video game legend. Klonoa is sadly not.

Matthew: 6%
I have no idea why anyone in their right mind would particularly choose Matthew over the more famous Isaac, but I'm sure he has some fans. I just feel most are going to agree it's Isaac for Golden Sun or no one.

Nominations:
Tails X 5(he's still more legendary than 90% of the third party options)

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

Klonoa: 0%
Want: 0%
Matthew: 5%

 

[FalKoopa]

Klonoa:
Likelihood: 1%
Pac-Man eats his chances badly. He's not on the level of legendary 3rd parties like MegaMan, Sonic, or probably even Bomberman.

Want: 45%
I'll confess. I haven't played any of his games. But I really like his design. It's charming.

Matthew prediction: 9%
He's quite underrated, imo. We'll see how this turns out though.

Tingle x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Nominations Count
Newcomers
x5 Knux

Umm… Groose… I think that those votes were meant to go to Knuckles.

 

[FalKoopa]

Umm… Groose… I think that those votes were meant to go to Knuckles.

It was my mistake, actually. ^^; sorry.

 

[Deleted member]

It was my mistake, actually. ^^; sorry.

It's OK! I just found it a bit funny to be honest.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Blue?!

Or Green if you're a purist like myself.


Klonoa:

Chance: 0%
A character who's two big games (and his sports game) where on Playstation... Sure he's had more Nintendo console games with 3 GBA games and a remake, but that was mainly because the play station pocket sucked.. The fact that his Klonoa Beach Volleyball game was PS exclusive should say a lot about the series' system loyalty. And that's ignoring the fact that he has to deal with Pac-Man, hasn't had a new game since 2002, and his remake sold poorly enough they didn't remake the sequel as was hinted... He's not getting in.

Want: 40%
He doesn't deserve to get in either, but my god would I be happy if he did! The happiness would fade to wtf-itude that pac-man was pushed aside, but I prefer Klonoa as a character so I'd be cool. The problem is his moveset is limited, and/or made up. His aerial grabs and throws wouldn't transfer well into smash, and he'd assumedly have to pop enemies out of thin air for a projectile in one of his moves... I love the guy, but I don't think he'd be a great character, and I do think Pac-Man would be better... Klonoa would have more uniqueness though, even if I'd sadly miss Pac-Man's final smash.


Matthew: 6.2%
Matthew is supposed to be the protagonist of the second part of GS, but it looks like that's not being made, or at least isn't happening for a good long while. Isaac is more recognisable, and has seniority, so I don't see many people voting his son highly.


Slime*5
(Forget your Goo-lden sun, slime the real jRPG rep)

 

[Louie G.]

KLONOA:

Chance: 2%
I could just say Pac-Man, but I think that Lloyd Irving also has the advantage over Klonoa.

Want: 50%
I'm never indifferent when it comes to 3rd parties, considering that it is such limited space and characters that aren't "legendary" don't deserve it. That being said, although Klonoa is definitely not as legendary as Sonic or Mega Man, I like him. Although I would prefer Pac-Man tbh.

Matthew Prediction: 7%
We'll get Isaac first, and I don't even think we're getting Isaac.

Noms: Starfy x5

Pac-Man eats his chances badly.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm surprised that I managed to get on here after trying to do so yesterday. How often do these DDoS attacks happen? (or is something else going on?)

 

[Gunla]

Finally, I can log on to the forums.

Klonope

Pros!
+Was on a Nintendo Console a few times
Cons!
--------Pac-Man.

Overall- He isn't Pac-Man, he's second tier in an area where first tiers get the slot. .1%

Want- Nah, the slot is better for someone else. 1%

Matthew
- I'm predicting 6.03%- he's underrated and behind Issac for GS rep, which is unlikely itself.

Nominating...
Extensive Alternate Costumes X5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Klonoa 1%
predict Matthew 8%
Ryu (Street Fighter) x5

 

[Starcutter]

Klonoa: 5% if namco wants someone that fits better than pac-man.
Want 80% YES LOVE ALL HIS GAMES

Mathew 4.36%

Noms:
Roy x2
Eevee
Mona x2

 

[McDuckletts]

It took me three days to log back into Smashboards.

THREE DAAAYS!!!!
Anywhoo...

Klonoa
Chance: 0.5%
Poor Klonoa just isn't popular or important enough to warrant a character addition is Smash in my eyes.
Want: 2%
I like Klonoa, I really do, and I think him being playable in Smash would be pretty sweet, but if he got in over another, more worthy third-party like Pac-Man or B-K, I might be a little peeved.

Mathew prediction: 5.43%
I don't even care for Golden Sun that much, yet even I know that Isaac has a much higher chance.

Noms: Banjo-Kazooie X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Klonoa

Chance - 0% - Remember when Sakurai said a third party had to be legendary? I highly doubt he qualifies. Namco is more likely to suggest someone else to represent them anyway.

Want - 38% - Eh. Not exactly opposed to him, but I'm against Namco getting a representative in general. He doesn't seem all that interesting either.


Mathew Prediction - 6.5% - Isaac is the original. Not many expect others than him.

Nominations
Dark Matter X3
Hades X2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Klonoa:
Chance - 10% not impossible, not likely either.

want: 65% would be interesting.

Matthew: 0.1% - Isaac forever, Matthew Never.

Nominations:
Sora x4
Daitoryo x1

 

[Zhadgon]

Character
Klonoa
Chance: .50% The big yellow circle is the biggest wall that this character most overcome to get a spot and seeing it in this perspective not a chance at all for our poor Modern Furby.
Want: 30% Maybe he can bring something unique but I prefer Lloyd over the mutant bunny.

Prediction
Matthew: 10% It has his merits and if Isaac is again assist trophy maybe his son could get the spot and continue the legacy of his family.

Nomination
Travis Touchdown x 5

.n_n.

 

[XenothiumX]

Klonoa
Likelihood: 0.5%

Want: 50% (indifferent)
I've never played his games but, I wouldn't mind him at all.

Prediction:
Matthew: 5%

Nomination:
Krystal x5

 

[Spears In Smash Bros.]

Hey Groose? Louie G. won today's extra noms, not me, since he predicted that Excitebiker would get 7.25%. Now onto the main event.

Klonoa: 7%
There's no guarantee that there'll even be a Namco rep, and as others have said, he's probably behind both Pac-Man and Lloyd Irving in likelihood. Still, he's fairly important as Bamco characters go, especially taking into consideration that Sakurai said that there wouldn't be any characters from fighting games (i.e. Tekken or Soul Calibur).

Want: 98%
Ah, yes. He'd definitely fit in with Smash's aesthetic better than Pac-Man or Lloyd would. I'm a big fan of his series as well, they're some of the best platformers on both Sony AND Nintendo consoles.

Matthew prediction: 4.67%

Nominate:
Amaterasu x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Klonoa - 0%.
Want - 0%.
Matthew prediction: 5%.

Ganon X5

 

[Groose]

Hey, look! I finally got on. Too bad it kicked me right off again! I'm giving it a day to see if they fix this horrible server issue they're having before I end this, okay?

 

[Capybara Gaming]

anyone else getting errors when posting?

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Klonoa:
Likelihood: 1%
Pac-Man eats his chances badly. He's not on the level of legendary 3rd parties like MegaMan, Sonic, or probably even Bomberman.

Want: 45%
I'll confess. I haven't played any of his games. But I really like his design. It's charming.

Matthew prediction: 9%
He's quite underrated, imo. We'll see how this turns out though.

Tingle x 5

Bomberman.

Bomberman.

Bomberman.

Forget aboout Simon Belmont?