Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[Fastblade5035]

Lucina is already over.

Remind me never to play this again at 4:00AM, please.

 

[Groose]

I should be able to end the day at about this time tomorrow. Until then, gentleman, I must say adoeu.

 

[XenothiumX]

Lucario likelihood: 20%

Lucario want: 80%
I been mentally preparing myself to let him go

Ice Climbers prediction: 95%

nominations:
Sandbag x5

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Lucario

Likeliness: 50%
Lucario is a unknown variable. He could return just as much as be absent. However, he has several things going for him. He still remains popular, is considered a Pokemon mascot character that appears on many of the products, is a unique, non-clone character, and has a dedicated following. He never replaced Mewtwo in SSBB as well. However, he could be muscled out by a more recent Pokemon or Mewtwo though I'd argue both could possibly appear. Other than that, he could be absent in SSB4 due to low priority and a lack of development time (much like Mewtwo).

Want: 50%
I'd like to see him return. But it's not a deal breaker for me.

Ice Climbers

78.9%

Nomz:
Nightmare x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lucario
Chance: 80% - He's not the safest veteran, but he's in no major danger. The biggest threat to his inclusion would be being replaced by a newer generation Pokemon.
Want: 88% - He's one of my favourite characters in Brawl.

Ice Climber prediction: 88%

Nominations: Chrom x5.

 

[BKupa666]

Lucario

Likelihood - 65%
I believe he'll be among the lower priority veterans, or at least the lowest-prioritized of the Pokemon characters (barring Pokemon Trainer being cut to clear up space). However, what with the hesitance Sakurai has displayed toward cuts in recent interviews, I give him an above average chance at making a return and squaring off against the Pokemon who the masses assume "replaced him."

Want - 50%
I'm ambivalent about the character as well as the moveset.

Ice Climbers Prediction - 91.5%
Will get a few low votes as an overreaction to the "difficulty" their development presents, as well as an underestimation of the 3DS' capabilities, but still remain high overall.

Nominate
Ganondorf x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

I could have sworn I had already posted my rating...

Anyways, I give Lucario 30% chances. That's ridiculously low compared to others, but I honestly believe he is the most likely to go out of the entire Brawl roster. While I don't think it's a guarantee that anyone will get cut, and I expect less (if any) as opposed to more to get cut, he will be the first to go due to relevancy issues and severe competition from his own series.

Also, I'm going to cash in all of my nominations for who my most wanted character who hasn't already been rated is.

Victini x15

Edit: predict Ice Climbers 98.2%

 

[Groose]

Lucario Chances: 66%
I definitely think they will try to work him in. Even so, he's probably the lowest priority Okemon character and runs the risk of being a time-constraint victim.

Lucario Want: 80%
I'm usually an "out with the old, in with the new" type of guy, but I have a soft spot for Lucario. He's my favorite Pokemon to release in the past decade and I enjoyed having him a secondary for awhile in Brawl. I wouldn't be heartbroken if he were left out, but I would like to see him present.

Ice Climbers: 86.38%
Just a hunch. Nobody will consider them an absolute lock after Sakurai's comments, though.

Tingle x5

 

[Starcutter]

Lucario chances: 80%

Want: 99% HE'S MY MAIN! plus he's my second-favorite designed pokemon in the series, but it would be #1 if I didn't really like otters.

Ice climbers: 95%

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[Shorts]

Lucario: 50% Could go either way

Want: 50% Don't care either way

Ice Climbers: 92%

Tharja x5

 

[Groose]

Day Over; Return of Groose

 

[FalKoopa]

Day 20.5?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

so whos next

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

oh wait never mind I think its the ice climbers

 

[MargnetMan23]

Lucario Chances: 66%
I definitely think they will try to work him in. Even so, he's probably the lowest priority Okemon character and runs the risk of being a time-constraint victim.

Lucario Want: 80%
I'm usually an "out with the old, in with the new" type of guy, but I have a soft spot for Lucario. He's my favorite Pokemon to release in the past decade and I enjoyed having him a secondary for awhile in Brawl. I wouldn't be heartbroken if he were left out, but I would like to see him present.

Ice Climbers: 86.38%
Just a hunch. Nobody will consider them an absolute lock after Sakurai's comments, though.

Tingle x5

OKEMON! OTTA ATCH M LL!

 

[Groose]

Lucario earned a roughly two- thirds majority in both chance and want. As usual, Gamefaqs was much more pessimistic than somewhat naive Smashboards. Lucario scored 63.75% overall chance (65.42% Smashboards , 58.53% Gamefaqs)
and elicited 66.82% overall want (68.71% Smashboards, 59.69% Gamefaqs).

Today's competitors are the Ice Climbers. Feel free to leave a xhance and want for them. The Ice Climbers have been a Smash mainstay since the Melee days and seem to be intended for Smash 4. However, Sakurai has stated he is struggling bringing tag- team mechanics like the Ice Climbers have to the game because of the limitations of the 3DS.

Wildvine47, Groose, and Stun247 all win 5 extra nominations today. Predict how people will our competitor for tomorrow, Waddle Dee, to earn extra nominations.

Gamefaqs Link coming soon.

 

[OcarinaOfDoom]

ICs: 91%
Want: 75%
Waddle Dee:25%
Nominate
Yarne x 5

 

[Opossum]

Ice Climber time!

Likelihood: 100%

Sakurai wouldn't bring them up specifically if he didn't intend on including them.

Want: 100%

Definitely some of my favorite Smash characters.

Predicting a 32% for Waddle Dee

Nominating Chrom x5

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Ice Climbers: 100%

He'll find a way to put them in somehow. They are that important to him.

Want: 100% No cuts...

Bandana Dee Prediction: 13%
He's probably not gonna happen. Most everyone sees that.

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Jigglypuff
Ike

 

[Ephecus]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 97 %
I am sure they will figure a way out to incorporate ICs in both versions of Smash4.

Want: 80 %
IC have a very unique fighting style. It would be a shame to see them go.

Waddle/Bandana Dee: 20 %
Being pessimistic here. I don't really see him happening. Also I couldn't think of a good moveset for him (then again I never played Return to Dreamland)

Nominations: Jigglypuff x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Ice Climbers will freeze the opponents!

Likelihood: 100%
The fact that he's working on them when only 13 characters have been revealed yet means that they're pretty high on his priority list.

Want: 100%
I usually never play as them, but no cuts please.

Waddle Dee Prediction: 23%
I think most people view the Kirby series as complete.

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ice Climbers Chance 100% He'll find a way.
Want: 100% My main since Melee.
Bandana Dee Prediction: 42.58%
Nominations:
Anna x4
Tom Nook x1

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Likelyhood: 100%
Want: 90%

Bandana Dee: 25%

Karate Joe x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

Likeliness: 100%. Sakurai has already stated that he has no desire to cut specific characters, if it weren't for time restraints. No characters are getting cut. None. It's not a question of whether they're "in" the game, it's whether they'll get finished. All characters from Brawl are already on the "confirmed" list until the game reaches the point where they just can't work on any more characters and just have to cut their losses. The Ice Climbers are unique characters, and Sakurai has shown he values uniqueness a lot. They have a sizable fanbase as well. They're all but guaranteed. Olimar also shows that they've overcome whatever issues they were having with tag-team characters.

Want: 100%. They're one of my mains along with Sonic, Toon Link and Olimar.

Waddle Dee prediction: 80%. He's a popular character, but is pretty divisive among some people.

Skull Kid X5

 

[Opossum]

Ice Climbers

Chance: 97 %
I am sure they will figure a way out to incorporate ICs in both versions of Smash4.

Want: 80 %
IC have a very unique fighting style. It would be a shame to see them go.

Waddle/Bandana Dee: 20 %
Being pessimistic here. I don't really see him happening. Also I couldn't think of a good moveset for him (then again I never played Return to Dreamland)

Nominations: Jigglypuff x5

Just saying, you should definitely play Return to Dreamland. It was my first Kirby game (not counting the SSE ), and it was a really fun game. Dee's pretty cool in it, too. Uses a spear.

 

[MargnetMan23]

Chances: 99.5% Sakurai stated he was struggling with adding them yes... But that ALSO means he has thought about and planned on putting them in and is working on them CURRENTLY so it's unlikely they'll be cut due to tim constraints. I SERIOUSLY doubt Sakurai would give up on them just because they were challenging to add into the 3DS version.
Want: 90% they should be in the next smash game no ifs and or buts about it. Though I'm not really a hardcore main or anything I know their place
Waddle Dee Prediction: 28.4% Well he would be cool to see but I'm not sure Sakurai really want to add more Kirby reps and the ones he already added are easily the most important ones
Nomz: 3x Jiggs
1x Mr. Game and Watch
1x Omastar

 

[Hippopotasauce]

Just saying, you should definitely play Return to Dreamland. It was my first Kirby game (not counting the SSE ), and it was a really fun game. Dee's pretty cool in it, too. Uses a spear.

I suggest making Super Star Ultra your second Kirby game, best of the series and it's very similar to RtD.
However let's allow the thread to get back on track for now.

 

[Ephecus]

Just saying, you should definitely play Return to Dreamland. It was my first Kirby game (not counting the SSE ), and it was a really fun game. Dee's pretty cool in it, too. Uses a spear.

I generally like Kirby games, especially older ones (Superstar Saga Ultra is my favorite), however the Wii titles seem a bit too easy (especially Epic Yarn) so I decided to skip them.

I also don't think that the Kirby series will get any new reps at all. However should he get new reps Bandana Dee is the most likely (being playable helps his chances)

 

[TumblrFamous]

Ice Climbers Prediction: 100%
Sakurai would never just give up on a veteran because it's difficult to make them work. Sakurai will try his hardest to bring them back. After all, they're immensely unique to the game. Two fighters? Hell yes!

Ice Climbers Want: 100%
I don't want any cuts, and I certainly don't want Ice Climbers cut. They are really fun to play with. I'm not a huge fan of chaingrabbing, but I love playing them every now and then! I love using them.

Bandana Dee: 34.82%
Not too sure he's likely. I'm also sure a lot of other people don't find him likely.

Nominations:
Toon Zelda/Tetra x5

 

[FalKoopa]

1x Omastar

 

[wildvine47]

Oh man extra nominations hell yes. Let's get the Icies out of the way first though.

Likelihood: 99% - Sakurai's already mentioned them specifically in an interview, and is trying his damndest not to cut anyone. With them being some of his favorite NES characters, I can't see them going anywhere. The 1% left out is in the unlikely situation that the 3DS simply can't handle both Climbers, and that he reworks their concept to just be one Ice Climber, or something strange like that, but I can't see that really happening.

Want: 100% - I don't want any cuts, especially not these guys. They're too unique, even if they're not my favorite to play as.

Bandanna Dee Prediction: 39% - I and many others see Kirby as complete with the main trio, but Bandanna Dee has his supporters, and stands the best chance if another Kirby rep were to be added.

Nominations
Samurai Goroh x5
Medusa x5

Really want to see how people will rate these two.

 

[SpaceJell0]

Ice Climbers Chances: 95% Sakurai loves them, and they are super unique. Everyone would go crazy if they were cut, they are probably back in.
Ice Climbers Want: 90% I like them, but I don't use them. However, I know they're important and it would feel weird without them.
Bandana Dee: 0% Kirby's representatives are perfect as they are and the Waddle Dee toss is a good part of King Dedede's moveset. He is far too generic and unmemorale for us and Nintendo.

Nominations: x5 Starfy

 

[FalKoopa]

Bandana Dee: 0% Kirby's representatives are perfect as they are and the Waddle Dee toss is a good part of King Dedede's moveset. He is far too generic and unmemorale for us and Nintendo.

Dude, you're predicting his average likelihood score for tomorrow, not rating his likelihood now.

 

[SpaceJell0]

Dude, you're predicting his average likelihood score for tomorrow, not rating his likelihood now.

Oops! Oh well, he doesn't deserve much more than that.

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Ice Climbers:
Chance: 99%
Sakurai's gonna work to try and make it work on 3DS, he always works hard on this sort of thing, but there's always the chance it just won't work.

Want: 100%

Bandana Dee: 4.72%

Slime*5

 

[---]

Ice Climbers - 95%
Want - 100%

Only reason they won't come back will be due to 3DS limitations.

 

[NickerBocker]

Ice climbers - chance: 95%
There are no cuts at this point, and sakurai specifically mentioned how he was programming them. At this point, theyre in the game, unless those issues that sakurai spoke of become a huge problem.

Want: 100%
My melee main, awesome in brawl, cant wait to play as them again.

Waddle dee: 8%

Noms:

Rayman x3
Skull kid x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Ice Climbers

Chance - 99.5% - Now that Pikmin and Olimar are revealed, I'm fairly confident that they will be returning. Because they are a bit more complex than just "follow the leader," I'm not 100% sold, but they are a very likey still, especaly considering Sakurai outright said that he struggled with them, and he does not like to talk about a character that may be cut.

Want - 100% - If I could, I would rate them higher. Such unique characters should not be removed, and I'm still very "no cuts from the roster."


Waddle Dee Prediction - 23% - A lot of folks think the roster has enough Kirby characters. I'd be surprised if anybody rated higher than 50%.

Nominations
Toad X2
ROB X2
Pokémon Trainer X1

 

[XenothiumX]

Ice Climbers likeliness: 99.99%

Ice Climbers want: 80%
I don't play them much because I find that keeping your partner alive can be a burden. I hope they improve upon the way your parnter stays alive when you get split up or possibly make your recovery better without your partner.

Waddle Dee prediction: 12.5%
his spear and bandana made him popular in Kirby's Return to Dreamland but I doubt people will expect his likelihood too high

Nominations:
Sandbag x5

 

[Starbound]

Ice Climbers: 100%
They aren't going anywhere.

Want: 100%
Such a unique character.

Nomz: x5 Jigglypuff