Rate Their Chances Returns! Day 194: "Predicting the Direct"

[jaytalks]

some music for Neku and Shiki
Calling
Lullaby for You
Deja Vu

Fawful:
Likelihood: 1%
Not really seeing the character as having a chance against all the other mario newcomers.
Want: 0%

King K. Rool:
Likelihood: 50%
Want: 40%
K. Rool's going down simply in relation to my want for Dixie Kong.

Sheik: 94.57%
Nominations:
Matthew (Golden Sun) x 5

 

[NickerBocker]

Fawful

Chance: 2%

Want: 50%
I actually havent played the game hes in, but from what ive heard and seen, I wouldnt mind his addition.

King K Rool

Chance: 70%
Hes about tied with Dixie, and there is the chance that they might both be in.

Want: 100%
Its been a long time coming. The Return of the King.

Shiek: 99.7%

Noms
Goemon x5

 

[Toxicroaker]

x28 Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario (Super Mario Bros.)
x27 Alph (Pikmin)
x26 Batallion Wars Rifle Grunts (Batallion Wars)
X26 Excitebiker (Excitebike)x25 Daroach (Kirby)
x25 Magnus (Kid Icarus)
x25 Bayonetta (Bayonetta)
x25 Goemon (Ganbare Goemon)

GROOSE!!!

 

[FalKoopa]

Oh Boy, I think Fawful will probably do worse than Waluigi at this rate. Gotta help him out.
FURY:
Likelihood: 0%
I know I spent my precious nominations on him, but it was largely to see how he performs in want. He doesn't have a hell of a shot before Toad , Bowser Jr, Waluigi.

Want: 100%
Who doesn't want him?

King K. Rool:
Likelihood: 90%
He's well known. highly demanded and popular.

Want: 100%

Predicting 99% for Sheik.

Donbe & Hikari x 5

 

[Toxicroaker]

More Concept Ideas: three new evil characters
two new female characters
50+ total characters

 

[Erimir]

I'll plant interesting concepts as they come to me though.
1x Alternate Costumes (for most characters) (i.e. not limited to just Wario and hats for Pikachu and Jigglypuff)

Well this became a whole lot more interesting of an idea to talk about.

Does the "alternate costumes" concept include costumes to make them different characters?

Yes, I was including things like Peach changing to Daisy, Samus to Dark Samus, Mega Man to Protoman or whatever else.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Fawful:
Chance: 0%

Sorry Fawful, but you're as unlikely as Geno. Popular in his own right, and probably the most popular character who is exclusively from the Mario & Luigi series. Unfortunately being a RPG character for the Mario series is pretty much a thankless task when it comes to Smash. Toad, Bowser Jr, Waluigi and even Doctor Mario are more likely and Paper Mario is the go to Mario RPG character of choice.

Want: 40%

I do like Fawful, and I enjoyed the M+L Superstar Saga(have yet to play Bowser's Inside Story) but I'm not sure if I want Fawful as a playable character. Assist Trophy would be more ideal IMO.

King K. Rool:
Chance: 85%

K. Rool being requested as much as he has been means Sakurai's more than likely at least going to CONSIDER him. It won't mean he's a dead cert as there's always factors that could prevent him from being implemented; time restraints, can't get the character to work quite right, the possibility of Sakurai wanting to add new franchises exclusively rather than expanding franchises currently, etc, but he's as close as you can get to being a guaranteed newcomer(Mewtwo's a returning vet) as you can possibly get. Him and Little Mac anyway.

Want: 55%

That being said I'm indifferent to his Smash playable status. I guess he'd be cool, but he's not a deal breaker for me.

Sheik prediction: 96.8%
Insanely likely. Some may say due to a lack of appearances in Zelda she's not wanted, but I think the majority will see her as very likely.

Nominations:
x10 Substantial Yoshi Changes (Yarn, Baby, etc.)

 

[Aqua Rock X]

Fawful

Chance: 0.5% - Nope.

Want: 40% - Meh. Sorry Fawfans, I'm just not that interested.

King K. Rool

Chance: 70% - It's either him or Dixie, and he's got Japan's support.

Want: 75% - As I have said before, Megaman's Metal Blades vs K. Rool's cannonballs would be epic!

Sheik Prediction: 91% - Many see her as very likely.

Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Fawful:

Chance: 2% - Poor fellow. I'm just voting him above 0 so he doesn't fall beneath Owain and the likes. I don't think he has a chance though.

Want: 55% - A generally enjoyable character with good potential. There's a good chunk of other characters I'd like over him though.

King Krusha K. Rool:

Chance: 80% - Probably the second or third likeliest newcomer. Everyone around the globe wants him, ever since Mega Man's reveal he's the wondernewcomer. He can easily make it in just from fan requests, but he does have the level of importance required too. He has competition though, but Dixie is hardly much to deal with when your name is King K. Rool. Dixie will make it in as a last minute semi-clone if anything, she won't take priority over another potential fully unique newcomer as far as I see it. Then there's something about relevance, which Diddy didn't care about in Brawl either, I don't see why it should affect K. Rool when Diddy could get past it.

Want: 90% - Second most wanted character, only behind Ridley, and behind Mega Man before that. K. Rool has insane potential to be the most whacky and out there character of the bunch. I don't have much of a personal experience with the guy, only beat him in the original DKC, but he's just too awesome, you don't even need to have played many of the games he is in to see the appeal. I'm not planning on maining or alting him, but I imagine he'd be much like playing Dedede to me, I might suck at playing the character, but the fun factor makes it all worthwhile. Furthermore, K. Rool deserves it, and it could potentially bring enough attention to him to bring him back into the DK games too. Just an all around win/win situation with including him.

Sheik Prediction: 89%

Nominations:
5x Palutena

 

[Deleted member]

Serious question; does Japan observe Halloween? Or at least on the same level that America or Europe does?

I'm not sure. Maybe? I'm only saying maybe because of today's Pic of the Day.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Nominations:
Dr. Kawashima x5

Thanks so much!!!

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

What about Marth to Lucina?

 

[Golden Icarus]

Fawful
Chance 6%
The only thing he really has going for him is that he represents the Mario & Luigi series. Which is pretty much redundant since...ya know, Mario & Luigi already do. Although he does have a decent popularity.
Want 60%
I don't really want a fifth Mario character, but this is a character that I'd actually be really interested in seeing. He's a likable guy, and his moveset would be very appealing to me. I would actually prefer him over most of the likely Mario newcomers.

King K. Rool
Chance 75%
I find it incredibly likely that we'll get a new DK character, and it's between K. Rool, or Dixie Kong. I'd give K. Rool a five percent lead to Dixie, and an additional twenty percent for the chance of us getting both. So overall, I'd say that he's rather likely.
Want 100%
Duh

Sheik Prediction 80%

Nomination
Ray x4
And just for kicks.
Dr. Kawashima x1

 

[Erimir]

What about Marth to Lucina?

I meant it very generally... Anything where most characters have something more extensive than palette swaps. It could mean just alternate outfits, it could mean gender swaps when applicable (Villager, say), or interchangeable characters (Ryu and Ken type pairs where they're functionally identical*). It could even mean merely similar looking characters like Marth and Lucina.

If you're interested in character model swaps like Marth and Lucina specifically, you should make that a separate concept.

*yes, I know they've been Luigi-fied since SF 2

 

[Cheezey Bites]

Fawful:

Chance: 3%
Slightly less impossible than a lot of characters recently, but not much. Really he should be a boss/AT, and even then I think his chance is fairly low (although he certainly deserves it imho)

Want: 35%
A little more than my standard, because I love the Mario and Luigi series... but he should really be a boss, and I'd honestly prefer him to be so.



The Reasonable Raving Derangable Despot:

Chance: 99%
In my opinion he is the best choice for a newcomer, barr none! DK is a huge series again after DKCR and K.Rool is in the top 5 (probably 3 really) most hype worthy in both geographical demographics. In Japan the two big hypers are vets and I question if the more conservative Palutena's and Shulks would actually bring more hype or if they're just suggested because the Japanese are pessimistic after DKCR. In the west the oft hated Ridley (similar hate is felt in JPN though with much less love) and the JPN meh'd Little Mac are the only two newcomers I can see bringing more than K.Rool, and in both those cases I question it (in Ridley's case because of the hate-base)... Mewtwo still wins out mind... The ONLY reason I can see him not getting in is if Retro are dead set against it, and given their Dixie call back, pirate bad guys, and 1 secret character... I honestly think they're gonna have K.Rool in DKCTF, in some way or other... I think it would be a pretty poor decision not too aswell... so yeah, I'm only cutting 1% for that.

Want: 100%
He's my number 7.


Sheik: 78%
If it ain't broke don't fix it is an adage because people still refuse to listen to it!!


Tails*5
(He wants to be cool, he also wants to be [in smash] like sonic)

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

prediction=98%

Nomination=5x Alternate character costumes

 

[colder_than_ice]

Fawful
Chance: 4% - There are so many more likely Mario reps to choose from.
Want: 5% - I'm not a fan.

King K. Rool
Chance: 74% - He's popular and important, his score would be a lot higher if he started appearing in the more recent Donkey Kong Country games.
Want: 53% : I'm pretty indifferent.

Sheik Prediction: 81%

Nominations: Aeron x5

 

[Erimir]

Came up with another concept idea: New clone characters. Will Sakurai return to the well to pad out the roster with enough "new characters" to satisfy the rabid fan base?

 

[Starcutter]

fawful: 5%
Want: 75% he's a really cool bean.

King K. Rool: 90%
Want: 98% he's a real cool croc.

sheik: 81% because diddy. but maybe he wont vote?

Noms:
Eevee x5

 

[Morbi]

Why are people voting less than 99.9% chance for Sheik? I don't understand... she isn't going anywhere.

 

[AEMehr]

Fawful
Chance: 0%
nope
Want 100%
pls sakurai

 

[BluePikmin11]

Why are people voting less than 99.9% chance for Sheik? I don't understand... she isn't going anywhere.

Because Impa.

 

[Morbi]

Because Impa.

I am one of the only people that actually wants Impa to replace Sheik, and even I know that it isn't going to happen. I am glad that Diddy instilled fear into everyone's heart!

 

[McDuckletts]

Fawful
Chance: 2%
While Fawful is a very popular villain from the also popular Mario & Luigi RPG series, I don't really think he's popular enough to warrant a spot on the roster.
Want: 20%
I'll be honest, I'm not the biggest Fawful fan out there, but I still like the guy. If he did get in the roster, I wouldn't mind that much.

KING KRUSHAAAAAAAA K. ROOL
Chance: 90%
K. Rool has a very high chance of being in the game thanks to many factors. K. Rool is still considered the main antagonist of the DK franchise, despite not appearing in a DK game since Jungle Climb. Because of all his aliases, it shouldn't be very hard to work a moveset onto him. Not only that, but he is also heavily requested, not in just the US, but also in Japan. His chances are not perfect, however, because, like I stated before, He hasn't been in any games as of recent, and it looks like he won't be included in Tropical Freeze. But then again, R.O.B and MG&W got in, so maybe that fact may be null...maybe...
Want: 100%
I'll be honest with you, I really love Donkey Kong games, especially DKC. I've 100%'ed all of the DKC games at least once, including Returns and 64. So, would I like to K. Rool in the next Smash Bros.? Pfft, hell YEAH I would! I think now would be the perfect time to make K. Rool playable. Brawl introduced Diddy, now Smash 4 will introduce King K. Rool.

Sheik prediction: 92.6%
She won't be going cut. She won't. Why do people say otherwise?

Nominations
Banjo-Kazooie X5

 

[Gunla]

Fawful
Chances: 10%- As much as his awesome power exerts his awesomeness, this ain't likely.
Want: 50%- And why would I not want this quote-overlord in? Too bad there's little chances.

King K. Rool
Chances: 80%- If it ain't Dixie, it's K. Rool. And we are in bad need of a new villain.
Want: 70%- The potential for movesets I've dreamed up is mighty. I typically prefer characters with potential for movesets and not being clones, as K. Rool is definitely the former. High hopes he's crashing down.

Sheik
Prediction: 94%- Can someone tell me the main arguement as for WHY Sheik would be cut?!
(Waits for answer regarding Impa and Diddy)

Nominating...
Palutena X5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Likely hood (fawful)
5% never heard of him

Want
0% never heard of him


Likely hood (king k rool)
75% very requested and support from japan and if hes the evil leader of the freeze team of dk tropical breeze its changes to 98%

Want 100% no explamantion necessary

 

[XenothiumX]

Fawful
Likelihood: 0.1%

Want: 0%

King K.Rool
Likelihood: 87.5%

Want: 100%
Awesome characters from some of Nintendo's best games. Definitely, worthy of a spot in the roster. It would be a mistake not to include him.

Sheik: 99%
this is a character that should have been in the just as good as confirmed list

Nominations:
Slippy x5

 

[BlitznBurst]

K. Rool chances: 99%. I could write a massive post on my reasoning, but since everyone else has already said what I have to say it'd be a waste of time, plus I'm not sure when it updates and don't want to miss it while I'm posting. Again, I do feel obligated to say that the roster will have been finalized before Tropical Freeze was revealed and it has no relevancy to the argument so you all need to ****ing stop already

Want: 100%.

Fawful chances and want: 5%. Cool chaarcter and all, but he's not important enough to the Mario franchise and he doesn't seem like a very compelling fighter to me, so...

Shiekd: 98%. General consensus is that she's returning, since she's an alternate form as opposed to an actual character, so yeh

 

[BluePikmin11]

So will the day end soon? I'm anticipated for the next day.

 

[LoneKonWolf]

So will the day end soon? I'm anticipated for the next day.

i sure hope the next day starts soon
im still basically pissed about missing the last day

 

[Arcanir]

King K. Rool
Chances-90% Very important to his series and a very popular choice around the world. Granted, he's been out of the spotlight since DKC:R, but I honestly don't think that's going to kill his chances too much.
Want-100% Yes please, he's another character I'd love to have in the game and one of the few I've been waiting for since Brawl.

 

[Starcutter]

I think Groose went on vacation

 

[LoneKonWolf]

maybe he finally decided to visit skyloft. . .

 

[SmashShadow]

Note from the OP: Hey, guys. I've got a massively busy schedule this weekend. Halloween itself may interfere with an update, and the wedding that I have to attend certainly will. I also have to go to an Oktoberfest celebration, write two English essays, do a calculus packet, and write up a massive lab. Did I mention that I have work, too? Anywho, I'm just trying to say that I may not be able to update until Monday. I'll shoot for sometime on Saturday, though, so we'll see.

Hold your horses people, he'll get to it eventually.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Fawful - 10% While a very popular villain from a popular RPG Mario series, relevancy and potential does play a role in character inclusion. Fawful cannot compare in those two factors to many other Mario newcomer canidates, such as Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario.

Want - 90% I'd absolutely love to play as him in Smash. If only....

King K. Rool - 90% I honestly think the Kremling King has a pretty good shot at this point. K. Rool unarguably has very high potential, and is one of the most popular choices among the Smash community, and, being the main villain of the DK series, he easily has good things going for him in all factors. The only thing he really has going against him at this point is that he hasn't appeared in the newer DK Country games yet. (although it has yet to be revealed it K. Rool is in Tropical Freeze)

Want - 100% One of my most wanted newcomers. A humanoid crocodile with super strength, a boomerang crown, and a blunderbuss with magical properties is defintitily something I want to play as.

 

[Groose]

Fawful Chance: 3%
What would a Mario newcomer be good for? Adding some "star power" to a roster that pretty much has all of the modern "Nintendo Stars." Someone like Toad, Bowser Jr., or even Waluigi is more likely than Fawful because they're well known among the casual crowd. Fawful can only get in if Sakurai wants to toss out a fan-favorite that no-one expects... 3% is pretty generous in my eyes.

Fawful Want: 75%
Fawful is actually one of my most wanted characters. As an assist trophy, that is. He'd make a perfect one of those, in my mind... just flying around the stage and letting loose the mustard of doom. But, playable? It'd be a great surprise and I'd be pleased... but I'd be left scratching my head, y'know?

King K. Rool Chance: 60%
His popularity, demand, and genuine uniqueness give him a leg over Dixie, in my opinion... but with newcomers so limited, there's a pretty decent chance he fails to make the cut. Fortunately, this would only serve to make him a complete shoo-in for Smash 5.

King K. Rool Want: 100%
I'm not going to say he's my favorite game villain. But he's definitely a part of my childhood, and he is an epic character on so many levels... I remember the quest to beat DKC for the first time... my friend and I were racing and a friend of a friend was telling us about this epic boss fight at the end. Something about raining cannonballs and a "surprise." When I got there, the fake kredits were pretty cool, but the fight really didn't stick with me... it wasn't all that tough or unique.

But then DKC2 came, and oh gosh... that boss fight is one of my favorites. It took me days to beat it, and K. Rool became one of my favorite enemies. I actually never got to then end of DKC3 until not too long ago, though... but that fight in DK64 was also epic. SAVED BY THE BELL! I supported him for Brawl a bit (I was here under a different username), but he's since gone from being a decent choice to one of the most important characters left to add. I just hope I can play as him in this game. Most wanted newcomer by far.

Sheik Prediction: 96.43%
Diddy will swing by and give her a 30%. Everyone else will put her in the high 90's. Few will give her exactly 100% because Impa.

Ray x9
Victini x1
I'll use my noms to give a big boost to Ray... and ensure we get a good character rate in two day's time.

DAY OVER​

​

RETURN OF GROOSE​

 

[Groose]

Fawful (Mario and Luigi)
3.06% chance
34.52% want

FAWFUL HAS THE FURY! You idiots who are dumb and mean dismissed him entirely. But that's okay... for Fawful is doing the waiting. He is waiting like the elevator that delivers the doom. His fury will rise... someday.

King K. Rool (Donkey Kong)
74.36% chance (previously 72.48%)
84.47% want (previously 78.57%)

K. Rool improved in both categories... but he stayed in the exact same position in the results chart. His incidental 2% chance improvement moved him farther ahead of Ridley... but he failed to catch Pretty Palutena. His 6% want increase brought him to within a half of a percent of Ridley... but it wasn't quite enough to claim the title of RTC most wanted newcomer. Still, an improvement in both scores is nothing to scoff at... it wasn't exactly K Rool's Finest Hour, nor was it a Bad Villain Day.

Today we'll be rating everyone's favorite Sheikah that isn't named Impa: Sheik. Please rate Sheik, survivor of the Sheikah, in chance and want.

WARNING! CHALLENGER RE-APPROACHING! We're going to have a double Zelda day today! And I mean that in the most literal sense... as Sheik will be accompanied by Tetra/Toon Zelda. Please rate Tetra/Toon Zelda in chance and want today.

Tomorrow we'll be heading to Unova to try and capture the rating of the legendary Victini. For today, predict how Victini will fare in tomorrow's game. I'll update in a moment with the nomination winner. Enjoy the extra five, Jaytalks!

 

[Curious Villager]

Sheik chance: 100%
I really don't see her leaving anytime soon.

Want: 100%
She isn't my main but I would certainly hate to see her go so yeah I want her back.

Tetra/Toon Zelda
Chance: 75%
I kinda feel that with Toon Link's appearance their chances have risen pretty well, especially when you consider that Toon Zelda was apparently planned for Brawl, I wouldn't call them a shoo in though but I do feel that they are pretty likely now. The question is will Tetra accompany Toon Zelda? Well seeing as how they got Toon Link out of the way so soon and with them still having until next year to release the games I'd say there no excuse not to include Tetra alongside Toon Zelda. I feel Toon Sheik was just a last minute rush idea for Brawl due to the Subspace emmisary, with that issue out of the way they have got plenty of time to program Tetra in instead of this Toon Sheik. Chances are they would be last minute additions though so I guess it's more dependent on time.

Want: 100%
While they aren't my most wanted characters (That will go towards Layton and Mewtwo) They are still one of the few potential newcomers who would actually excite me. Wind Waker is my favourite Zelda game and seeing Toon Zelda and Tetra joining alongside Toon Link would be very fun at least for me. I know people have this huge disdain towards clones but meh, so long as Toon Zelda offers a different playstyle like Toon Link does I'm more than cool with her. As for Tetra, she is definitely a character I would love to see join the Smash.

Victini prediction: 3.5%

Ray X5

 

[Deleted member]

Just woke up in the morning to see this. Awesome!
Sheik
Chance: 95%
Because I will leave some doubt in my mind if Sakurai really wants to replace her. But, I don't see that happening… nor do I see Impa.
Want: 100%
I would hate to see her go.

Toon Zelda/Tetra
Chance: 25%
I find her to be more likely since Toon Link got confirmed and Sakurai did have plans for her in Brawl (Forbidden 7). Though, just because she was planned doesn't mean that she is going to be in SSB4. But still, 25% is a bit decent. I do believe that she will be low priority however.
Want: 25%
Me? Kinda wanting a second version of an existing character? Yes, I hate having two of the same character on the roster (I hate seeing Dr. Mario in Melee and Young Link and now Toon Link in Melee and Brawl respectively) and I wouldn't be happy seeing Toon Zelda, but this want rating is reflective on wanting to see what Tetra can do. Tetra is a pretty cool character.

Victini Prediction: 14.16%
I think Victini has a shot… though I dunno what the others think.

Nominations: Captain Rainbow 5x

 

[TumblrFamous]

Haven't been here in a while... I won't be nominating characters, though. So, let's begin.

Sheik Chance: 99%
Really? I could post a huge paragraph about how Impa replacing her wouldn't make sense, so let me be brief. Sheik is Zelda. Impa is not. Sure, she's only been in one game and its remake, but the Zelda we have is a mixture of all types of Zelda. We have her TP look, magical attacks that were created from scratch, Link's goddess attacks from OoT, and Sheik. Plus, her goddess specials make sense now, as she is confirmed to be part goddess. Sheik is a huge part of Zelda. She stays.

Sheik Want: 100%
Absolutely! I am a Sheik main, myself. Of course, I can't put her over some characters like Toon Link, Peach, Pikachu, etc., but I still love using her, and love the concept of her, being a polar opposite of Zelda.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Chance: 75%
I think we are fine the way we are with the Zelda cast. Just keep the two Links, Zelda, Sheik, and Ganondorf. That is what I am predicting. However, there is a good chance we'll see a Zelda newcomer. If we do, I fully believe Toon Zelda/Tetra is the best bet. ANd now that Toon Link is back, it gives them more of a chance. Not much, but they have definitely improved.

Toon Zelda/Tetra Want: 100%
Again, absolutely! They are my third most wanted newcomers, behind Mewtwo and Palutena. It makes sense for them to be in there, and I love Toon Link. If they get in the game, you can bet I will be maining them!