Pretty Actuate Smash Ballot Data

[König Nickerchen]

Cool Krystal is in the TOPs^^

 

[smashboy12]

I appreciate what you're doing, but Smashboard, Sourcegaming, Reddit, Gamefaqs and other online forums do not represent the totality of the voting public.

I'm gonna need more proof than that to regard it as anything more than "pretty accurate".

I can understand were you're coming from.

 

[Wintropy]

Make that *Smashboards, heh~

Well, it's a good project if nothing else. And there are some very interesting tidbits here.

K. Rool the number one first-party newcomer? I can definitely believe that.

Snake at the top is a tad surprising, and I'm not sure I buy it just yet. But hey, if it's true, fine with me~

 

[smashboy12]

I appreciate what you're doing, but Smashboard, Sourcegaming, Reddit, Gamefaqs and other online forums do not represent the totality of the voting public.

I'm gonna need more proof than that to regard it as anything more than "pretty accurate".

I can understand were you're coming from.

 

[Fire Rider]

Yeah!! The two compadres are on the TOP!!
Go Snake and Wolf!

 

[Sirfishe]

king k rool should be higher up. But in a way he is the top newcomer. Rest of veterans so that should be good news for k rool

 

[dangeraaron10]

King K. Rool being the highest voted newcomer pleases me greatly. It's nice to see Isaac and Krystal being close on his heels, the other newcomers I support strongly (next to Ridley...), with Wolf being my most (and only) returning vet I want back. With Ice Climbers simply not happening and the mess with Konami (for Snake), the King's chances are looking as good as ever. Can't stop this train now, let's add some more coals to the furnace!

 

[FancySmash]

Glad to know that the Ice Climbers are that high up on the ballot, even though they have a massive hurdle that is the 3DS.

 

[shane3x]

Pretty much confirms what we already knew with the odd exception here and there.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

It's good to see Snake at the top. I wasn't expecting that, but it's not too surprising since he was very well-loved in Brawl. This better convince Nintendo that he's highly profitable and worth the effort bringing back.

 

[shane3x]

It's good to see Snake at the top. I wasn't expecting that, but it's not too surprising since he was very well-loved in Brawl. This better convince Nintendo that he's highly profitable and worth the effort bringing back.

Only reason Snake wouldn't be back is due to licensing issues, especially with the Konami/Kojima thing. Don't think anyone doubted his popularity, moveset etc...

Also the only other factor could be that 3rd parties whose ties aren't as strong with Nintendo only making guest appearances on a single game basis. I never expected Snake to come back because 3rd parties aren't like the regular roster. I wouldn't expect Ryu to make a return for a Smash 5 if and when (at least not as part of the initial non-dlc roster anyway).

 

[HakuryuVision]

Joke-character being in this doesn't make this less accurate.
There's always those jokers throwing random names in it.

Loving how Bayonetta and Ridley have good chances~! : D

 

[Capybara Gaming]

I do hope you realize this is a load of ****.

It has Goku and Shrek on it.

Furthermore, a reddit vs. poll has both of those characters plus (for some reason) Fluttershy. (not necessarily this same poll, but still)

reddit cannot be trusted.

 

[DonkaFjord]

I do hope you realize this is a load of ****.

It has Goku and Shrek on it.

Furthermore, a reddit vs. poll has both of those characters plus (for some reason) Fluttershy. (not necessarily this same poll, but still)

reddit cannot be trusted.

You do realize people are actually voting for impossible characters in the actual ballots, right?

 

[Capybara Gaming]

You do realize people are actually voting for impossible characters in the actual ballots, right?

It cannot be held as accurate when they include blatant troll characters as highly requested. I sincerely doubt Shrek has enough votes to get in the top set, expecially considering Takamaru's name is notable absent from the list.

 

[Zerp]

It cannot be held as accurate when they include blatant troll characters as highly requested. I sincerely doubt Shrek has enough votes to get in the top set, expecially considering Takamaru's name is notable absent from the list.

Takamaru is on the list he's at sheet 70 .

I'm kinda freaked out that Clefairy and Dark Matter are right next to each other twice and have the same percent.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Takamaru is on the list he's at sheet 70 .

I'm kinda freaked out that Clefairy and Dark Matter are right next to each other twice and have the same percent.

Alright, I didn't see that. However, considering Shrek and Goku are that high within hundreds of thousands of votes makes me question it's validity. Furthermore, this is nothing more than an "accurate" (and I use that term lightly) capture of reddit's votes. Not all votes.

 

[DonkaFjord]

It cannot be held as accurate when they include blatant troll characters as highly requested. I sincerely doubt Shrek has enough votes to get in the top set, expecially considering Takamaru's name is notable absent from the list.

There are casual players voting for Shrek and Minecraft Steve alongside the troll votes. Remember the casual fanbase dwarfs the competitive fanbase of Smash.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

There are casual players voting for Shrek and Minecraft Steve alongside the troll votes. Remember the casual fanbase dwarfs the competitive fanbase of Smash.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say they are roughly equal in side.
As I said, this is still only a compilation of votes from reddit.

 

[DonkaFjord]

I wouldn't say that. I'd say they are roughly equal in side.
As I said, this is still only a compilation of votes from reddit.

We definitely are not equal size. The 'casual side' is by far a larger amount of sales of the series.

Either way this list isn't pretty accurate since it isn't the official ballot. Also a ballot results without Goku/Shrek/Other impossible character not appearing in it wouldn't be accurate either. People are seriously trying to vote for them- Sakurai even mentioned seeing these types of votes during a public appearance where the host talked about people asking for characters like spongebob and such.

 

[shane3x]

Seems odd people expect non-joke answers to be given in any sort of poll and that because of that its not at least some vague representation of things.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Geno/Shulk/Other impossible character

....Shulk is in the game.

 

[DonkaFjord]

....Shulk is in the game.

What the hell... I wrote Goku/Shrek... I swear. Guess that is what happens when you are listening to podcasts at the same time that you type.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Only reason Snake wouldn't be back is due to licensing issues, especially with the Konami/Kojima thing. Don't think anyone doubted his popularity, moveset etc...

Also the only other factor could be that 3rd parties whose ties aren't as strong with Nintendo only making guest appearances on a single game basis. I never expected Snake to come back because 3rd parties aren't like the regular roster. I wouldn't expect Ryu to make a return for a Smash 5 if and when (at least not as part of the initial non-dlc roster anyway).

I can see your point there. What I meant though, is that I hope his demand will be enough to convince Nintendo to make the effort to work out the licensing issue.

 

[shane3x]

I can see your point there. What I meant though, is that I hope his demand will be enough to convince Nintendo to make the effort to work out the licensing issue.

To be honest it's probably out of Nintendo's hands and it doesn't seem to exactly be something that is high on Konami's agenda considering everything that is happening internally within the company including Kojima.

 

[Zajice]

Konami doesn't feel like letting Nintendo make money for them. It's just way too much work. They're really busy promoting the **** out of the new Metal Gear game, and having Snake show up in Smash would make that really hard to do. If Nintendo wanted to put Snake back in Smash, it would also make it really hard for the gambling and mobile divisions of Konami in Japan to focus on their jobs like they want to. Also Kojima really hates the Metal Gear series now and wishes it never existed. Just look at his twitter. He hates even being associated with it.

It really sucks how a company restructuring itself deletes all their previous work. I can't believe Snake is this boned.

 

[Delzethin]

Alright, I didn't see that. However, considering Shrek and Goku are that high within hundreds of thousands of votes makes me question it's validity. Furthermore, this is nothing more than an "accurate" (and I use that term lightly) capture of reddit's votes. Not all votes.

And therein is why it's next to impossible to get a real idea of where the standings are overall. Each of these polls are only catching certain demographics and fan groups--even the big ones--and they carry their biases with them that skew those polls. Combine that with all the extenuating circumstances that high amounts of nominations can't disregard--such as the Ice Climbers' technical limitations or that mess over at Konami--and it gets really really hard to figure out who is most likely after frontrunners K. Rool and Isaac.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

And therein is why it's next to impossible to get a real idea of where the standings are overall. Each of these polls are only catching certain demographics and fan groups--even the big ones--and they carry their biases with them that skew those polls. Combine that with all the extenuating circumstances that high amounts of nominations can't disregard--such as the Ice Climbers' technical limitations or that mess over at Konami--and it gets really really hard to figure out who is most likely after frontrunners K. Rool and Isaac.

Then that begs the question how are K. Rool and Isaac any more likely then the others if your point is valid? Polls can't accurately determine them unless the whole fanbase is included in the results.

 

[StormC]

Then that begs the question how are K. Rool and Isaac any more likely then the others if your point is valid?

I think the point he's making is that K. Rool and Isaac are consistently at the top of enough polls to believe they're leading the ballot, but after that there's too much variance to be able to tell.

 

[Delzethin]

I think the point he's making is that K. Rool and Isaac are consistently at the top of enough polls to believe they're leading the ballot, but after that there's too much variance to be able to tell.

Pretty much. They're the only newcomers that are consistently very high, with K. Rool almost always at the top. Aside from them, things vary significantly between polls. Complicating things further is the fact that many of the other characters that rank that high tend to have issues, like the aforementioned problems with the Ice Climbers and Snake, or many third party characters that'd be that much more difficult and costly to get the rights for and collaborate on and may not even be seen as significant enough to fit on a roster of Nintendo's all stars in the first place, or a handful of characters who may be seen as too new and risky.

Then again, some of that might be my own personal bias. We can only speculate on what the developers themselves think.

 

[StormC]

Also, I think people overestimate the pull the casual vote will have in this. How will they have even heard of the Smash Ballot if they don't watch Nintendo Directs? Even so, they would have to band together to vote for specific characters to have a big effect; otherwise I see them mostly voting for random Mario characters/Pokemon/third parties/veterans.

 

[**Gilgamesh**]

Konami and Kojima have both re-twitted about Snake ballot support already. Most companies would want a character to get represented because hey free advertisement/publicity. I sure do wonder why Microsoft CEO just came out of the blue and said he wouldn't mind Banjo/Kazooie in Smash4 after the ballot was announced. Also I don't get why people are surprised by Snake being number 1; he's like the most popular veteran for casuals and one of the most popular for hardcore gamers. Let's not forget that Sakurai also re-twitted a Snake support post (funny post that is) meaning he does acknowledge Snake being in the poll somewhat.

 

[shane3x]

Considering Kojima is probably never going to do a MGS game again his word doesn't carry a lot of weight when it's Konami who will decide. A re-tweet doesn't exactly inspire that much confidence at least other companies have had their leaders publicly say something as opposed to what is mostly a token gesture for publicity.

Pretty much. They're the only newcomers that are consistently very high, with K. Rool almost always at the top. Aside from them, things vary significantly between polls. Complicating things further is the fact that many of the other characters that rank that high tend to have issues, like the aforementioned problems with the Ice Climbers and Snake, or many third party characters that'd be that much more difficult and costly to get the rights for and collaborate on and may not even be seen as significant enough to fit on a roster of Nintendo's all stars in the first place, or a handful of characters who may be seen as too new and risky.

Then again, some of that might be my own personal bias. We can only speculate on what the developers themselves think.

If we run with the assumption that its only 2 more DLC left and both are coming from Smash Ballot it'd likely be Wolf and K.Rool.

 

[Delzethin]

Considering Kojima is probably never going to do a MGS game again his word doesn't carry a lot of weight when it's Konami who will decide. A re-tweet doesn't exactly inspire that much confidence at least other companies have had their leaders publicly say something as opposed to what is mostly a token gesture for publicity.

Actually, Hideo Kojima was the one who got Snake into Smash. He and Sakurai go way back, and he suggested it for one of his kids.

Which gives Sakurai even less of a reason to go to Konami about Snake. They just jilted his friend big time.

If we run with the assumption that its only 2 more DLC left and both are coming from Smash Ballot it'd likely be Wolf and K.Rool.

Though considering how quickly they've been able to crank them out, odds are they're willing to do far more than just fill those two placeholders. In fact, I'm willing to bet those are for pre-Ballot characters.

 

[dangeraaron10]

I once was touting my theory about the two "marios" being pre-ballot (one of which would undoubtedly be Wolf) and 4 additional Ballot characters, bringing the post-Mewcusroyu DLC to 6 (10 DLC characters total). It's extreme, and 2 seems more likely. Anywhere between 2-6 is going to be my bet. They could always just add one last column on the Wii U screen and I imagine the 3DS characters will just shrink to accommodate another row. I really hate the idea of a second screen or Mii Fighter-esk dropdown menu, it feels cheap (it's a nitpick I know, but still)

 

[Fire Rider]

I'm sure that these 2 free spaces on the game and website are Pre-Ballot characters
And other 1 or 3 DLC for Ballot characters

 

[shane3x]

Actually, Hideo Kojima was the one who got Snake into Smash. He and Sakurai go way back, and he suggested it for one of his kids.

Which gives Sakurai even less of a reason to go to Konami about Snake. They just jilted his friend big time.

I know he is the one who is mostly responsible for Snake's inclusion. The rights are owned by Konami, it doesn't matter what Kojima wants now or even what Nintendo/Sakurai wants. Konami is all over the shop so it's not likely to happen.

Though considering how quickly they've been able to crank them out, odds are they're willing to do far more than just fill those two placeholders. In fact, I'm willing to bet those are for pre-Ballot characters.

it is possible, easier to assume its just 2 more for now. Sakurai did say he on twitter he is only going to do several more characters so that could be another 2-4. It's more likely at this point we will get 5 or less DLC characters as opposed to 5 or more DLC characters.

 

[Sparrowin1]

Snaaaaaaake

 

[G-Guy]

K. Rool being the highest voted Newcomer? Awesome!

the 2 characters cut from brawl leading the global votes? sweet!

I can dig those results. Let's hope the top 3-5 get added to the game. I mean, if cut veterans are what the fans want, Sakurai probably will please the crowd with glee. Didn't he state that bringing back brawl content is much easier than, let's say, Melee one?

anyway, this looks pretty nice. The 2 veterans that i liked + K. Rool as the newcomer icing on the cake.