Christ, this is just like last time...
How about this. How about instead of declaring one character superior in one area over the other or saying "Ness doesn't have..." or "Mario can't...", we focus on the facts because PKNintendo got it right; neither party knows very much about the other. Let's take a change of direction and look at What attacks outprioritize what, what true combos one has over the other, and their options. This kind of discussion isn't going anywhere.
My take on the matchup in a sec. I'm sure BO X7 has a few things to say about it as well.
Edit: When we first looked at the matchup a few months ago, I said 70:30 Mario hands down. I realize that was kinda on the ******** side, but I DO believe that Mario has a slight advantage in the matchup. Let me explain why, and correct me if I'm wrong...
I give Ness the advantage in the air and Mario the advantage on the ground. From what I've seen, Ness' aerials have more range and he's a bit faster in the air because of his crazy DJ. The only aerial Mario has that can compete with Ness' aerials is Bair which is beaten by Ness' Fair if I'm not mistaken. That, and the fact that Ness' aerials flow nicely into each other gives him the edge, even slightly.
It's mostly the opposite on the ground. Mario has the speed with is smashes, mainly Dsmash and Usmash, and range with his tilts. If you want to count SH aerials, Mario's ability to SH 2 aerials into one hop makes his Bair a good spacing tool and Uairs good for comboing into each other. Ness' SH Fair limits this, but it's still a viable spacing option.
KOing, I'll probably call that even, mainly because of Ness' Bthrow. Aside from that, the only KO move I've ever really been worried about is his Bair or tippered Fsmash. That's also factoring the chance that he'll land a PKT2. Mario's options here are Fsmash, Usmash, and Dsmash unstaled and sweetspotted. Since Ness is apparently the same weight as Mario, Fsmash should be KOing at 100%-110% from the edge and Usmash at around 132%. IIRC, Ness' Bthrow kills at 120% regardless of DI.
Mario also has, yeah you called it, gimp options. As much as we'd like to ignore it, a large portion of Mario's kills come from gimps on every opponent. Ness' recovery being one of the few that he can more reliably gimp, you have to factor it into the match.
Where I have Mario with the advantage is approach options. Mario can approach Ness safer than Ness can approach Mario. Mario's approach options here are spaced Bairs, SH Dairs, and fireball approaches. Since Ness' Fair goes through mostly everything Mario has, this should be his main approach option, correct? Well, Mario has a pretty strong defensive game with his upB and Usmash OOS which can punish all of Ness' aerials as he comes close to the shield.
My overview, 55:45 Mario.
Sorry for double post but. Yeah I agree with most of this, and Im glad that you changed from 7-3 to 55-45. I disagree with ground game, while Mario has the better ground game, it's not by much. I suppose Mario's tilts do outrange Ness but...
Ness' do more damage (down tilt especially) and are generally faster. Judy, Mario isn't the only player who can use his utilt spam. Ness can too! His uptilt functions the same, with less spam but more range/priority. His ftilt does more damage and it's priority is insane. And Ness downtilt is just plain better than Mario's downtilt.
Tilt wise, I think Ness wins out.
Ness can SH 2 aerials into one Hop too you know. 2 bairs, (like Mario) 2 fairs (unlike Mario) 2 uairs, 2 nairs. In fact ALL of Ness aerials can be SH except his dair.
I disagree with even KO. The sheer power of Ness backthrow makes him a better killer. FINALLY someone realises that Ness has equal weight to Mario (
) But yeah, he also has his bair (strong) PK flash, PKT2, and Fsmash. It's better but not by much.
Ness can limit his approach via psi magnet cancel (said before) and counter Mario's SH aerials with his. A defensive Ness is just as (if not more) as deadly as Mario. Again, what Mario can do, Ness can do too. Upsmash OOS is also possible with him.
Yes Mario's edge guarding plays a big role, but his recovery is much to underrated. It takes alot of flack. And no offense Mario mains, Mario just isn't as tough to face as Peach, DK and Rob (who are 55-45)
(Yes, Ness AND Mario aren't that great
)
It's definetely a 50-50.
EDIT: Oh it isn't a double post.
And @ Kanzaki. Tiny summary
In the air on stage= Ness>Mario
On the ground=Mario>Ness
Far away=Ness>Mario
Off the stage Ness=Mario.
Approaching=Mario>Ness
Killing=Ness>Mario
OH SHI... Anyway, yeah Ness get's gimped, but Ness can do things to Mario too you know. PK flash, PKT juggle, PKT2. Yes, I face the dreaded cape, and get ***** by it, but not by THAT much. I think Mario can gimp G-dorf, DK, and Link farse worse by the fact that Ness has such a splendid double jump.
@ Matador, I love how you know alot more about Ness. Kudos to you!