pick yur poison | ovah

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

We'll give them Janitor and Godfather, whoever suggested any combination of Roleblocker, Vengeful and Day Rolecop should come up with a good explanation asap or else s/he won't be living very long. Maven / Ryu are our best leads for D1.

Hypo-crumbing? How about this: I claim Vanilla Townie

**** no.

fos gheb.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Looks like we've just found our D1 lynch.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Looks like we've just found our D1 lynch.

Why the hell would you give mafia a janitor.

that restricts information far worse than a roleblocker.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

There's this thing called "reading". You could try it.

 

[Dooms]

Looks like we've just found our D1 lynch.

Thank god a lot of the people in this game are more independent and won't just follow you. :x

 

[ranmaru]

What makes you say that Joey?

 

[we thuggin]

2x roleblocker (3) - ranmaru zenny joey
day rolecop (0)
vengeful mafiate (0) -
1 shot janitor (2) - ranmaru zenny
godfather (2) - wott [has 1 other vote] joey

not voting jexs gheb red ryu rosalina jaytheunseen alakaslam seal maven

 

[Xivii]

Godfather only affects the masonizer and the cop. I don't think it's very likely that they gave us a masonizer because there's only a 1:10 chance that the masonizer actually hits the godfather on N1.

This, again, is a bad thing to assume. There's 2-3 real possibilities for the PR mix-up. If we play this out as if we know which one they picked, we are doing this wrong. We need to pick the combination that best covers the realistic bases.

Godfather is the only thing that stands in the way of Mason. The chance that Masonizer hits GF n1 is only 1:10 on paper. In reality, Godfather will be playing in a way as to attract the Masonizer target.

But let's look at the RB scenario. With a Roleblocker, there is very little chance they will actually hit the Masonizer. Mafia is very unlikely to use the RB N1 without a significant lead in who the PRs are. So the Masonizer successfully achieving a result is high, and after that it will not matter whether or not scum has all the RBs in the world for him.

 

[Xivii]

@ ranmaru do you have any reads/suspicions from what has been presented thus far?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

This, again, is a bad thing to assume. There's 2-3 real possibilities for the PR mix-up. If we play this out as if we know which one they picked, we are doing this wrong. We need to pick the combination that best covers the realistic bases.

Well then, guess what. The most realistic base is that mafia didn't give us the masonizer in the first place because that role is way more useful to the town than all the others except the Weak Doc. If the scumteam really knows what's up then they gave us Cop [worthless until his sanity is figured out], Vig [too advanced for most people] and Doc [lesser evil between the remaining roles].

Godfather is the only thing that stands in the way of Mason. The chance that Masonizer hits GF n1 is only 1:10 on paper. In reality, Godfather will be playing in a way as to attract the Masonizer target.

What garbage. As if the Godfather had some special ability that makes him a more likely target for the masonizer. In reality, every player will try to play in a fashion that makes him a likely target for the masonizer. The chance is 1:10 and that will only come into play if the mafia were dumb enough to give us that role in the first place. You're blowing this waaaaaaay out of proportion.

And even if everything you said were even remotely true you'd have to convince us that there are better choices. Vengeful Mafiat is terrible, Lynch Janitor is terrible and we're not giving mafia access to a Rolecop/block combo.

But let's look at the RB scenario. With a Roleblocker, there is very little chance they will actually hit the Masonizer. Mafia is very unlikely to use the RB N1 without a significant lead in who the PRs are. So the Masonizer successfully achieving a result is high, and after that it will not matter whether or not scum has all the RBs in the world for him.

Nobody is arguing against giving scum a roleblocker at this point though.

 

[Xivii]

Even if Masonizer doesn't target GF we will have to deal with the WIFOM -_-

 

[Xivii]

I'd rather have 2 100% clears who can gain another 100% clear if one of them dies.

 

[Xivii]

And IF we did have a cop instead, we have to deal with the same thing here. We have such an advantage if scum gave us an investigative hoping to get the Godfather in return. Cop in this game works exactly like a weak comparison cop, and you know that can still be utilized, in an open-set up, without multiple factions. GF makes it completely demolishes the advantage we get from an investigative. By choosing a GF you're basically just balancing out the game for mafia.

 

[Xivii]

EBWOP: makes it

 

[~ Gheb ~]

That's a fair point.

But it means giving scum a more powerful role just because we assume that they gave us a masonizer.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Thinking out loud: We could have everybody claim whether they are the masonizer or not. If nobody claims to be the masonizer then it's 100% safe to give scum the GF [and nobody has to actually reveal their role]. If somebody actually claims masonizer though one of the Docs can protect him - in the hypothetical scenario of a masonizer claim 2 of the 4 remaining roles are protective [50% chance]. The only risk we take in that scenario if that mafia could've picked vig, cop and masonizer which would be extremely ballsy. But we'd know that it's better to not give them a GF and can expect a whole bunch of clears in little time - especially if we have a Weak Doc as well.

 

[Maven89]

I'm already confused and I can only assume what brand new players are thinking about this discussion

I'd much rather give them a role that clears the mafia from PR investigations then one that actually lets them influence the game, since it's not like we just blindly follow the cop anyways

 

[Seal]

Hot damn, so many posts in less than 24 hours to catch up on.

The only role I feel safe voting for is the godfather. I agree with wott's logic that by the chance the mafia even gave us a cop there's a 1/12 chance of getting him. The only way picking godfather could be bad is too small a chance not to vote for it. Anything else I'm not sure if yet. It's clear however that jan and daycop are horrible decisions, but I don't know which to choose between rb or venge.

Vote: godfather

 

[JayTheUnseen]

I still can't see what's so bad about janitor?

 

[Xivii]

Thinking out loud: We could have everybody claim whether they are the masonizer or not. If nobody claims to be the masonizer then it's 100% safe to give scum the GF [and nobody has to actually reveal their role]. If somebody actually claims masonizer though one of the Docs can protect him - in the hypothetical scenario of a masonizer claim 2 of the 4 remaining roles are protective [50% chance]. The only risk we take in that scenario if that mafia could've picked vig, cop and masonizer which would be extremely ballsy. But we'd know that it's better to not give them a GF and can expect a whole bunch of clears in little time - especially if we have a Weak Doc as well.

Roleblocker would then know who to roleblock.

I was actually trying to get a non-traceable version of this going with the hypo-ison.

I'm already confused and I can only assume what brand new players are thinking about this discussion

I'd much rather give them a role that clears the mafia from PR investigations then one that actually lets them influence the game, since it's not like we just blindly follow the cop anyways

The GF gives the more influence and WIFOM than a Day Jan does. Just because one is passive rather than active doesn't make it weaker.

 

[Xivii]

whom*
them*

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Roleblocker would then know who to roleblock.

Then we don't give them a roleblocker.

 

[Xivii]

We can only make two reasonable assumptions about scum's picks:

1. One of the PRs scum will have picked is a Weak Doc.

2. Scum will have avoided picking what they believed to be the most powerful PR combination. As we have seen just through this discussion alone, there are diverging perspectives on which is more powerful between Cop & Mason & Investigative vs double-doc. For that reason, we cannot make an assumption on either of those things (That scum would not have double-doc, that scum would not have an investigative, or that they would pick one of the investigatives over the other).

From these two assumptions we can make a least likely to most-likely scum PR choosing as follows. Those higher up are least likely scum choices. Those on the same level have equal possibility:

a. Cop-Mason-Doc <> Cop-Mason-Vig
b. Cop-Mason-WDoc
c. Cop-Doc-Vig <> Mason-Doc-Vig
d. Cop-Vig-WDoc <> Cop-Doc-WDoc <> Mason-Vig-WDoc <> Mason-Doc-WDoc* <> Vig-Doc-WDoc

*this combo would be all sorts of silly, and they probably wouldn't choose this, though we do have to keep in mind the abundance of new players in this game.

So the only thing we can really work off of is (A) There is probably a weak Doc and (B) There are not 2 investigatives. So I think we can reasonably exclude a-c (though of course never 100%), and should be working on the assumption that any of the d-level combinations are possible. If we make the assumption of which one they picked we do happen to be right, then we have a huge pay-out. However, if we are incorrect, then SCUM has a huge pay-out. We'd be gambling. We need to choose them the perks that provide them the least amount of potential pay-out given these possibilities taken as a whole. 4 out of 5 of these include an investigative (3/4 if you exclude the asterisk). In the big picture, Jan & Roleblock is the most optimal combination we can do. Even if we DO end up not having an investigative, we still will not have been severely hampered.

In other words, while we may not be making the BEST choice for a vig-doc-wdoc combo, we are not making a bad one.
However, if the combo is any of the other 4 out of the 5, then we are making the WORST choice.

 

[Alakaslam]

I still can't see what's so bad about janitor?

Janitor hides a flip.

One of the prime sources of information for town is the discovery of a player's alignment.

Say you have a player who is heavily implicated to be scum by power actions, And has not been playing perfectly but has strong points on other players. In all likelihood, that player is town- but some idiots insist he should die (putting this in one player's perspective) because his red flip would heavily implicate three other players, while his green flip would clear them.

Janitor

Boom town still in the dark and I still run and associative protect the other guys to my own end gaming because the dude was scum and I am the real idiot for playing by associations so much.

I have seen this happen to many players, and janitor can be very strong for other reasons.

Denying town info is really useful. Think like you are a scum. What powers do you hope town picks, and why?

I would want janitor and rolecop- so those are off my list. I would be pissed to have godfather as every game I have been scum with godfather in it has been utterly useless. He never gets checked. And I would be like "meh" at 2x roleblocks, but that could be pretty good so not sure I want to give them that.

So

 

[Alakaslam]

Roleblocker would then know who to roleblock.

I was actually trying to get a non-traceable version of this going with the hypo-ison.
The GF gives the more influence and WIFOM than a Day Jan does. Just because one is passive rather than active doesn't make it weaker.

I vehemently disagree.

The cop has a 1 in (player base) chance of hitting gf.

Janitor has like a 85% chance of success.

Very simple.

 

[Xivii]

It's not a matter of him hitting him, it's matter of him not being able to trust his results.

 

[Alakaslam]

I Am working on 7 hours sleep though, got up to pee and take a dump

Going back to sleep a few hours

 

[Alakaslam]

It's not a matter of him hitting him, it's matter of him not being able to trust his results.

True but cop is already 50% insane, wasn't he?

 

[JayTheUnseen]

Yeah,I think I want role block and godfather now.
Godfather can't really actually DO anything,so...

 

[Xivii]

Jay and Slam read my last post.

 

[Alakaslam]

Even if cop is 100% sane, you can trust his checks like 90%... But I can see where that 10% could skroo us at lylo

 

[Alakaslam]

Jay and Slam read my last post.

I gone done and did Sson.

I gotta sleep, I can see gf being not wholly useless but if I were scum I wouldn't want it imo

 

[Xivii]

True but cop is already 50% insane, wasn't he?

It's permanent though so he's a like a comparison cop, 'cept he can't make 2 investigations in 1 night. With a GF he wouldn't be able to trust his results at all.

But without GF say cop got an inno n1 and a guilt n2. He would know one of the two people he investigated is town and one of them is sucm. With GF he would not be able to make this conclusion.

 

[JayTheUnseen]

It's permanent though so he's a like a comparison cop, 'cept he can't make 2 investigations in 1 night. With a GF he wouldn't be able to trust his results at all.

But without GF say cop got an inno n1 and a guilt n2. He would know one of the two people he investigated is town and one of them is sucm. With GF he would not be able to make this conclusion.

If we have cop we can't ever trust him fully as he may be insane and have inaccurate results,he may just have been lucky if he was ever proven right.So GF wouldn't matter.

 

[Xivii]

If we have cop we can't ever trust him fully as he may be insane and have inaccurate results,he may just have been lucky if he was ever proven right.So GF wouldn't matter.

Let me go into deeper detail.

Scenario 1: Cop is Sane
He investigates scum n1 - gets guilty
He investigates town n2 - gets inno

He knows that one of them is scum and one of them is town, despite not knowing if he is sane or insane.

Scenario 2: Cop is Insane
He investigates scum n1 - gets inno
He investigates town n2 - gets guilty

He knows that one of them is scum and one of them is town, despite not knowing if he is sane or insane.

This is the function of this game's cop. Add a GF in the mix and this role is deemed inapplicable.

 

[Maven89]

Does an insane cop always get the wrong results?

 

[Xivii]

Yes.

 

[Xivii]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Cop

 

[~ Gheb ~]

We can only make two reasonable assumptions about scum's picks:

1. One of the PRs scum will have picked is a Weak Doc.

Why would we assume that? Weak Doc is the only role available that's arguably as powerful as the masonizer.

 

[Xivii]

Why would we assume that? Weak Doc is the only role available that's arguably as powerful as the masonizer.

Why? Regardless, that makes my point even more clear.