There is no way regular toad kills at 120% unless your opponent has bad DI.
I think our definitions of hard read are different. For me it means I know what move my opponent will do next and where he's going to do it to almost complete certainty. . So I press B a half second before he does it. If it only takes 15 frames for the move to come out it's a guaranteed hit as long as I use it a half second before.
I don't think the two toads have the same risk in all scenarios, I think that when you have a hard read, the risk becomes equal, as in there is no risk at all. I would agree that in all other situations, the regular toad is much less risky.
When I say hard read I''m talking about you are 99.9% sure what your opponent is about to do. I can do this at least once a stock against most players, just not against the really really good players. But against most tourney players a hard read is easy for me to get once a match, so as a personal play-style this move is risk free to use in those situations.
