Oasis Mafia - Over!

[Sabrar]

Yeah I just reread Sabrar's case, and there's nothing wrong there.

So will you reevaluate UP because of that or is he still your most townie read?

 

[Xivii]

Vote Count 1.12


Ninja (3) - Laser, Ran, Jack [L-3]


Utopian (2) - Sabrar, Boom


Sabrar (1) - Utopian


Maven (1) - pythag


Ran (1) - Ninja


Not Voting (3)
Maven, Z25, Wisp​

Spoiler: History

P1
Sabrar #Laser
Ninja #UP
pythag #Maven
Ran #Jack
Laser #Ran
UP #Jack
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Z25 #pythag
Boom #Sabrar
Laser #Wiisp
Ran #Ninja

P2
Jack #Laser
Boom #Unv
Boom #Jack
Ran #Laser

P3-P4*
Z25 #Unv

P4-P5*
Laser #Sabrar
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja
Sabrar #Unv
Sabrar #UP
Jack #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Ninja

P5-P7*
Jack #pythag
Boom #Unv
Boom #Maven
Wiisp #Ninja

P7-P9*
Wiisp #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Boom

P10
Jack #Laser

P12
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Boom #Unv
Boom #UP

P13-15*
Laser #Unv
Laser #Ninja
Ninja #Unv
Ninja #Ran
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja

P15-P18*
Jack #Ninja
Wisp #Ninja
Wiisp #Boom

P21
Wisp #Ninja

P22
Wisp #Unv

Notes
None

Players and Events
Link

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to execute!

Deadline: Monday, April 20, 2:00pm EDT

 

[Z25]

I'm claiming ExLight. I have no idea what that means for Wiisp.

Hm, I don’t think they were seriously trying to claim that but it was odd to suggest a flavor claim to begin with.

As I have a sneaking suspicion the flavor could be more valuable here then we realize. Something perhaps Wiisp did too.

Although tbh I’m not sure how the flavor with my role fits my user. But this is a mechanic that would be a good discussion tomorrow or even day 3 imo.

 

[Sabrar]

Hm, I don’t think they were seriously trying to claim that but it was odd to suggest a flavor claim to begin with.

Even if it wasn't serious now they can stop focusing on this aspect of the game and get back solving it.

 

[ranmaru]

Maven89 Why are you not voting?

 

[ranmaru]

Wiisp : in case I missed it, did you ever follow up #329 or my reaction in #337? What was the purpose of #329, what conclusions did you draw?

Wiisp Can you actually get to this? Also, why did you unvote?

 

[ranmaru]

3DS* - Very defensive and quick to give up. Feels like inexperienced scum caught early. If there really is a 3DS-Wisp team I feel sorry for them.

I think I believe Ninja. We know for a fact that Ninja messed up. As town or scum he made a mistake. So the question is which reality makes the most sense.

Weird things Ninja has done:
1) Claim neighbor with little benefit and without consulting neighbors if it was okay.
2) Thought Wiisp was in the neighbor chat.
3) Claimed only one PM then changed later to say there were two.

Town-Ninja
1) Thought that LaserGuy was confirmed town. Saw that LG was getting pressured and needed help. Checked that role-claiming was legal, was told you should only do it with a definitive result, then claimed. It's reckless to not check with the neighbors first, but we know 3DS is, if nothing else, not a careful person.
2) Confused Xiivi and Wiisp in chat, which means he wasn't paying very much attention. That fits with the idea that he thought they were confirmed town.
3) Lastly, forgot about his second role PM and didn't bother to double check before confirming it. This is also a pretty big screwup, especially since it was obviously a big deal and he had time to check it, but again, we know Ninja isn't careful.

Scum-Ninja
1) Thought that neighbor would be taken as a guaranteed town and wanted to get it out there? He'd know this was false, and I don't think 3DS is on the level where he could fake a mistake like that.
2) The Wiisp error could be that he's mafia with Wiisp, and wiisp not noticing that is pretty weird. Also Wiisp did go for 3DS pretty hard right after that slip so a bussing scummate fits.
3) 2nd role PM leans heavily to scum. If he thought that his mafia PM was a secret he'd claim only 1 PM, and then later his partner would inform him in Day chat that it should have been 2 PMs. This fit's far too well.

Alright. 1 doesn't make any sense from scum perspective, 2 is pretty neutral and 3 is more likely from scum. Still #1 really doesn't make sense from scum perspective. I don't think we are doomed to lynch 3DS necessarily. There's LOTS of opportunity for things to happen in later days and I've seen what look like hopeless cases end up confirmed town. I'm going to look for scum elsewhere today unless someone can come up with a believable logic for scum ninja to claim neighbor.

Town-Ninja:

1. If the role claim means Laser Guy is confirmed town, why claim it pre-maturely for him, when Laser can do that himself?
2. Xiivi should be in every chat, though. We know Xiivi is the host, I don't think it's likely he confused the host was playing, and added him into a discussion about his neighbors.
3. Unlikely because then he'd be borderline not reading his own alignment.

"Laser: He keeps posting in only emotes, and since one person in the neighborhood is probably scum, and I know it isn't me, it's defiantly not Z25, and I don't think it's Wiisp, it has to be Laser by logical deduction.

Scum-Ninja
1. Scum-Ninja doesn't care about the details of the neighbor role, they just know that it benefits them to claim it. Benefit: Mostly everyone thinks they are reckless noob town, that no scum would advise to do.
2. So, this is a possibility. Xiivi and Wiisp being in chat together, makes more sense. Yet, since I believe it's too blatant of a slip, that it should be taken with a grain of salt. It's more believable that, Ninja as scum, has been coached into slipping Wisp (who wasn't voting or doing much to progress town) to create a possible mislynch after Ninja's own scum flip. Also wifom because it's also possible it was done so that people would consider this angle, semi-clearing Wisp. So I think both are possible, but I feel it being deliberate is a much higher chance. Meaning, scum wouldn't deliberately slip their scum mate, they would slip town deliberately as that progress their win condition. The thing is, we can't ignore the slip. Yet we can find scum before we are forced to consider it as a connection. Which we can do with vote analysis.
3. Agreed, this fits here.

 

[ranmaru]

BoomFrog What I'm wondering is, in your #173, you felt that Ninja was caught noob scum. Now because of your theory in #350, you ignore that point. You seem to be ignoring his play afterwards, especially the change in playtyle/tone. Why is this?

 

[ranmaru]

I also was suspecting Wisp, and still do, but I think it's less likely he's scum so I'll change the order of my Bottom Four.

 

[ranmaru]

Bottom Four: [Ninja > Maven > Jack > Wisp]

 

[Sabrar]

2. So, this is a possibility. Xiivi and Wiisp being in chat together, makes more sense.

LOL

 

[ranmaru]

I just realized. BoomFrog why haven't you responded to my #484? I also want to see an updated reads list from you today. Do you have the time to do so? You said you are busy, that is fine. Yet you haven't set up a time that you could update your reads list. You haven't been clear about that yet you harp on me for not

You both are still in my bottom 4 but I plan to review you both in full at some point today.

I also want to see your updated reads list. You said this yesterday.

 

[ranmaru]

LOL

I mean, Xiivi should be in every role PM. So he can't really confuse that, since Xiivi is the host. That's my point i'm making.

 

[ranmaru]

EBWOP: Yet you harp on me for not considering that you are busy. Yet you simply like and you don't reply to my response there.

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar Do you see the point I'm getting at with Boom? How he seems to be forcing a defense on Ninja.

 

[Sabrar]

Yes, I see BF's defense. I can actually see BF suggesting to Ninja some slips that he can later argue as a sign of townieness. It's a possible narrative but not necessarily the correct one.

 

[ranmaru]

Boom liked Maven's #771 and Wisp's #739. I just wanted to point that out. To me it seems like Boom supporting those (attacking me) or being attacked by me (Wisp). It could be another reason but it just feels disingenuous to me.

 

[Wiisp]

I'm guessing sabrar has no idea what my ability is for him to claim Exlight

ExLight
I invited cause I got a little paraniod last night, the thought of only two mafia kinda threw my read off, but Ninja is still correct

##vote Ninja

 

[Wiisp]

Idk why I just pinged Exlight woops, ranmaru

 

[ranmaru]

Wisp, talk to me about Boom.

 

[Wiisp]

Maybe later, work calls

 

[Sabrar]

I'm guessing sabrar has no idea what my ability is for him to claim Exlight

Obviously. But now if I end up dead we know who to blame.

 

[ranmaru]

Since we have two days left I want people to start finishing their updated reads lists. Especially Jack and Boom.

 

[Jackrito]

I will do it today. Yesterday I focused on another game I'm in. I c

 

[Jackrito]

Ok posted too early I can't see it changing too much though the only change I think is laser could go up and Wisp down more.should not change the order a lot.

We will see though

 

[ranmaru]

So Boom stays the same for you?

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar, can we talk reads.

 

[Sabrar]

Just a moment, finishing my rereads.

 

[Sabrar]

I've looked at some people in the bottom half of my previous list (#332).

Jack: my impression reading through his posts was that he was mostly content with chatting with Wiisp, occasionally asking and answering questions, just being around. Now that also means that he didn't get super-defensive even though several players had him as scummy (possibly because he saw we were too busy with Ninja). I did not find any agenda or real connection to others. If he's town he's not doing much (but that might change later), if he's scum he feels he doesn't have to do too much so any buddies he has are currently in a good position. Because of this I have a slight town-lean but that will probably change if his content does not pick up.

LG: reads look reasonable, interacts with several players and asks sensible questions. Also - as a completely independent point - it is less likely that scum!LG would have still done the gambit once he learnt he had neighbors. Not impossible, but it makes it harder to exploit the influence he might have had otherwise. Probably Town.

Maven: policy lynch material. Asked 3 times for the case on UP but he did not have any reaction to it. He makes firm statements but does not take the time to explain his reasoning. Scummy.

 

[Jackrito]

I've looked at some people in the bottom half of my previous list (#332).

Jack: my impression reading through his posts was that he was mostly content with chatting with Wiisp, occasionally asking and answering questions, just being around. Now that also means that he didn't get super-defensive even though several players had him as scummy (possibly because he saw we were too busy with Ninja). I did not find any agenda or real connection to others. If he's town he's not doing much (but that might change later), if he's scum he feels he doesn't have to do too much so any buddies he has are currently in a good position. Because of this I have a slight town-lean but that will probably change if his content does not pick up.

LG: reads look reasonable, interacts with several players and asks sensible questions. Also - as a completely independent point - it is less likely that scum!LG would have still done the gambit once he learnt he had neighbors. Not impossible, but it makes it harder to exploit the influence he might have had otherwise. Probably Town.

Maven: policy lynch material. Asked 3 times for the case on UP but he did not have any reaction to it. He makes firm statements but does not take the time to explain his reasoning. Scummy.

I see no need to get super defensive yet, I'm used to being scum read early my mafia playtime overall is build on it. I feel that I have done enough content when able to and made my reads clear and what I want from the day, so find your stance on that bit weird. I'm just not the super agrro type like you or Ranmaru I see myself as more of a support player unless I find something that really bothers me. Also you say I lack connection to others but surely I have one with Wisp based off your first line.

I wonder why you have no issue with Laser doing little but questions, I feel the expectations of me are higher I assume this is because of your early scum read. The gambit point is interesting and depends on the player since I have seen scum do stuff like this and worse. Most normal people would not risk it though.

 

[Jackrito]

So Boom stays the same for you?

I would say so I just never really get a town like impression off him. Actually doing my reread now though may take a bit

 

[ranmaru]

Boom is scum. He's positioning himself to look good on Ninja's flip while ignoring Ninja's play. I no longer believe and support a Ninja lynch. (#173, #350)

 

[Sabrar]

Also you say I lack connection to others but surely I have one with Wisp based off your first line.

I meant in-game connections. Obviously you and Wiisp have previous history but that's not relevant.

I wonder why you have no issue with Laser doing little but questions,

LaserGuy feels more invested in the game. I put down my impressions in his part.

The gambit point is interesting and depends on the player since I have seen scum do stuff like this and worse. Most normal people would not risk it though.

On the xkcd site gambits were tried by multiple players. IIRC it was more common from town but that of course doesn't mean a thing.

 

[ranmaru]

##Unvote
##Boomfrog

 

[Sabrar]

ranmaru : why does Boom's position invalidate your case against Ninja? If you were convinced earlier that those signs point to scum!Ninja, how do you explain them coming from Town?

 

[ranmaru]

Because he's defending him hard to the point of forcing the argument to be that of him being town. It doesn't totally invalidate it but it gives me enough pause to lynch Boom first.

 

[Sabrar]

Don't talk about Boom for a minute. Your points in #405 do not have anything to do with Boom. How do you resolve them coming from town!Ninja?

 

[ranmaru]

I can't explain them coming from town. The only thing that can be dropped is the bravado point, since Laser gave a good point about that. He remains a question mark.

 

[Wiisp]

Ya I'm staying on Ninja
Not that I don't believe boom isnt a wolf still
But ur vote swaps got me paraniod

 

[ranmaru]

Then tell me why Boom acts in the way he is, Wisp. Because that's what is going through my mind right now.