Oasis Mafia - Over!

[Wiisp]

Ok fair, it just threw me off guard

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

UtopianPoyzin I would appreciate an answer.

It's almost like... I was away from the thread?

I'll try to see if I can answer your question.

 

[ranmaru]

All good, I tagged just to get your attention. Thanks UP.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Was thinking along those lines too. What do you make of my naked vote in #290?

I'm curious about this. Can you elaborate further? Does your stance on Ninja change, or do you see something in addition to your Ninja read? If there is a change, please elaborate on what and why.

My stance on Ninja does not change, but the day that has the most activity is going to be an utter waste if we all mutually agree on one person and don't make any other discussion. I still scumread Ninja. However, I would like to pursue other scumreads of mine in the meantime and relieve some tension from Ninja, who obviously isn't cooperating. I would like him to react to #302 and #303, but I would like to play the game rather than being a small-brain by only focus on OMGUS. There's (PrObAbLy) 3 scum so there's room to look.

 

[ranmaru]

Can you elaborate on these other scumreads? I feel it is time you do.

 

[Xivii]

Vote Count 1.6.1


Utopian (2) - Ninja, Sabrar [L-4]


Maven (2) - pythag , Boom


Ninja (1) - Ran


Sabrar (1) - Laser


pythag (1) - Jack


Boom (1) - Utopian


Not Voting (3)
Maven, Z25, Wisp​

Spoiler: History

P1
Sabrar #Laser
Ninja #UP
pythag #Maven
Ran #Jack
Laser #Ran
UP #Jack
UP #Unv
UP #Sabrar
Z25 #pythag
Boom #Sabrar
Laser #Wiisp
Ran #Ninja

P2
Jack #Laser
Boom #Unv
Boom #Jack
Ran #Laser

P3-P4*
Z25 #Unv

P4-P5*
Laser #Sabrar
Ran #Unv
Ran #Ninja
Sabrar #Unv
Sabrar #UP
Jack #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Ninja

P5-P7*
Jack #pythag
Boom #Unv
Boom #Maven
Wiisp #Ninja

P7-P9*
Wiisp #Unv
UP #Unv
UP #Boom

Notes
If the vote count is the same as the previous, I'll indicate it with a second decimal.

Players and Events
Link

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to execute!

Deadline: Monday, April 20, 2:00pm EDT

 

[Jackrito]

##Laserguy

 

[3DSNinja]

Maybe it’s not my place to comment, but I’m calling this a misrep. I don’t think I ever attacked Laser, as my PoV has always been that the emojis are not easy to read, but not necessarily scummy. So if I’m scummy from moving from Sabrar to you, then so be it. But let it be known that I was never onboard for lynching LaserGuy thus far in the game.

I honestly thought you had swapped from LaserGuy at some point.

This is what happens when you haven't played Mafia for a year...

 

[BoomFrog]

##Laserguy

Interesting. Why not vote me who is the bottom of your list?

 

[Z25]

He'd know it's not a full clear because he is scum and a neighbor. Only town-3DS could think neighbor was a full clear.

That is true I wasn’t thinking at that angle. Still one could question I suppose if scum 3ds thought the rest of town would know this or not. I would say it is likely that he would know that though rather then not.

 

[Wiisp]

Interesting. Why not vote me who is the bottom of your list?

I don't think that matters

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

These are the cases on me that I live for!

The self-consciousness in #13 feels weird. The vote on me is based on some pretty false reasoning and I don't think UP ever reacted to my reply in #215. I've already talked a lot about his confidence in #73 that he later toned down. #94 is actually the reserved reply to LG's gambit that could be the result of being coached. And he's even contradicting himself, see "Laser is null. There is no way to scumread Laser as of right now." vs "I'm reading them just slightly more scummy than null", followed up by "I don't see it as anything to hard push right now" which is an obvious sign that he knows what's going on. You can later see this in #157 as well. #182 is a clear scum-play, asking for directions from town.

The self-consciousness in #13 feels weird. The vote on me is based on some pretty false reasoning

I've said it once and I've said it again; "weird" is a very helpful out for anti-town to call attention to a piece of evidence without doing anything about it. It's a less verbose equivalent of "caught my attention as different", which is not that strong of a start. In all honesty, I was hoping to bait a reaction for it, which thankfully you were able to do because I knew that it would be impossible to find anything scummy from #13. Luckily you pulled the "weird" card, which reaffirms my suspicion of you. As an explantion, my vote was based on my personal dislike of your opening post, which I have touched on several times iirc. My vote was still in RVS, so it certainly wasn't terribly important, which is contrary to what you are trying to prove. However, it WAS based on my "natural intuition", and which opening I felt was likely to come from scum.

and I don't think UP ever reacted to my reply in #215.

Brilliant example



I said that I had high confidence, which is due to former experiences with such. Of course I can't be sure about it, but I think that it is a very reasonable claim to make that there is probably a scummer in the neighborhood. I think that I am perfectly allowed to make such an assumption and I think that you'll agree that the possibility is there. I just think that possibility is high. I'm not trying to figure out who it is right now, as I would rather focus on my personal scumreads rather than limit myself to only those three; I just think that it is a good thing to keep in mind in the future, as this theory might fit into a bigger picture down the road. I shouldn't comment on myself, but I don't think anything I said showed TMI, as I have know idea whether there's 0-3 scum in that group.

Peculiar. Let me know if you want me to touch on anything else, I'd be happy to oblige.

I've already talked a lot about his confidence in #73 that he later toned down.

I'm not sure what you're referring to, as I still have high confidence that there's a scummer in a three person neighborhood. I'm not trying to withdrawn or conceal that statement, so don't try to make it seem that I'm trying to mislead.

#94 is actually the reserved reply to LG's gambit that could be the result of being coached. And he's even contradicting himself, see "Laser is null. There is no way to scumread Laser as of right now." vs "I'm reading them just slightly more scummy than null"

Laser is null. There is no way to scumread Laser as of right now. Posting one emoji at a time might be unhelpful, but its certainly nothing to freak out over. Granted from what limited I can read from them, I'm reading them just slightly more scummy than null, but I don't see it as anything to hard push right now.

But its the truth. There is nothing inherently scummy about only posting emojis; its null. The only reason that I had them slightly below null just into the scum territory is due to the way that my PoE cookie crumbled during the drafting stages. I found more people to be more townie than LaserGuy, so I naturally filled in the blanks and assumed that LaserGuy was just trying to conceal information. However, this read was influenced by emotions such as impatience and irritation with the slot rather than anything concrete. For someone who is criticizing me for basing my read of you on early impretions, you're sure putting a lot of emphasis into my very first readslist which has many flaws hindsight and has already been updated. It's a time where the game was rapidly fluctuating, and LaserGuy just got the scummy end of the stick. I stand by my statement that emojis and lurking are unreadable, even though they are valid lynches for policy readings. You can't be read as scum if you just never say anything, but you'll probably be killed in aggravation, which is a net loss for your faction. Now I'm going on a tangent. I said that I was reading them more scummy than null because I was already looking at my beginning readslist and I sensed a lot of townie things early on, was getting upset with Laser's emoji posting, and decided to put them lower due to the chance that they were concealing something. Obviously this was not the case, and Laser had a great re-entrance in my eyes.

followed up by "I don't see it as anything to hard push right now" which is an obvious sign that he knows what's going on.

I'm getting lost just by reading the second half of this. Emojis are the equivalent of nothing. LaserGuy was posting nothing. While annoying, it is still nothing. I'm not about to start pushing a player on D1 for posting nothing. It is not scummy. It is not townie. It is nothing. How this shows that I "know what's going on" is baffling. The only thing I know that's going on is there's a very unhanded push on LaserGuy right now that has a foundation built on nothing. So of course I can't support that. But you can go on right ahead if you'd like.

You can later see [that he knows what's going on] in #157 as well.

And just like that LaserGuy has shot up my readslist. It’s not just because their townreading me, and I don’t agree with everything they’ve said, but this just oozes “townie mindset” from my perspective and I don’t have any more grievances with this slot.

Wooooooow. It's almost like.... LaserGuy had a good post? And there was something that could be read from that slot as opposed to nothing? Give me a break. This was LaserGuy's first real post and it was at a time where LaserGuy was basically replacing in, because the game was already underway. Therefore,, there was enough content to compose a readlist, and a lot of it lined up with my thought processes. Granted, some of it didn't, but not every townie is going to think the same. How my reaction to LaserGuy's opening exemplified my supposed "all seeing eye" is beyond me.

182 is a clear scum-play, asking for directions from town

Dang. I feel like the bad guy. @Town Am I acting like the bad guy here? Let me just say that I'm still willing to change my vote with a reasonable argument from 3DS; I'm just connecting the dots to match the narrative being painted by 3DS's pessimistic outlook about the game.

3DSNinja you're not dead yet. And there isn't even a huge push on you yet either. You don't need to say that "it's all over" because it's far from that right now. I said that you had a good opening; it's been 24 hours anyway, which leaves you with 6 more days to play.

My initial push on 3DS ended up making them not wanting to play. Should I just not question it? Looking at this if I were an outsider, I'd probably chalk this up to different mafia ideologies, but from your perspective as probably being scum, I can see this being a solid check mark on your bingo board. Sadly for you though, it's merely a checkmark on a bingo board and nothing that I would consider substantial evidence. You're definitely not going to be a fan of this, but I'm going to say "So?" I've asked questions as scum and town, moreso as town. There's a 70% chance that the advice that you'll receive comes from a townie mindset, with a 93.33% chance if two people weigh in. So if you're going to incorrectly scumread me, I would prefer that you have better evidence rather than things that you thought were weird and that you falsely believe to be a clear scum play.



Poor case from Sabrar. Would be once again willing to go here toDay.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

there's a

EBWOP

There was*. Maybe it'll come back or something, idk

 

[ranmaru]

Can you tell us in two sentences or less why you and everyone else should go on Sabrar, UP?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Can you elaborate on these other scumreads? I feel it is time you do.

That was the goal of me popping back in. I'll see what I can whip up before I eat dinner

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Can you tell us in two sentences or less why you and everyone else should go on Sabrar, UP?

Not in two sentences, no; you think I can be that concise? Let me compile some BoomFrog evidence though, as that's where I'm currently voting. I just decided I would restate my position on Sabrar being a null-scum read and a direction that I would be willing to take.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

EBWOP
Meant to come out like this

Not in two sentences, no; you think I can be that concise? Let me compile some BoomFrog evidence though, as that's where I'm currently voting. I just decided I would restate my position on Sabrar being a null-scum read and a direction that I would be willing to take.

Not in two sentences, no; you think I can be that concise? Let me compile some BoomFrog evidence though, as that's where I'm currently voting. I just decided I would restate my position on Sabrar being a null-scum read and a direction that I would be willing to take.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Peculiar. Let me know if you want me to touch on anything else, I'd be happy to oblige.

Actually, I think you quoted this to, because you addressed my use of "TMI" which you said was unprompted and that I was trying to save face, but I was actually referring to what Jackrito said a couple posts later.

The way he just expalined it as accusing Up of having TMI makes sense though

So this is the exact wording (from #73, bolded part is mine). For me 'clearly' defines a confidence level of 99% or above. It implies that there shouldn't even be a shadow of doubt regarding the issue. That was my problem with it and it feels to me like UP is trying to lessen the confidence level in their later posts (#92, #93 and especially right now in #225 where he explicitly denies TMI without prompting),

Me saying "clearly" is just you putting a spin on it to show my complete confidence. Take a look at Flavorless Mafia III again to see how percentages and confidence levels were thrown out on a whim in endgame. That's like me saying "Oh, you're clearly wrong", and you saying, "But would you bet your life on it" and I was obviously say no.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

complete confidence.

You're not allowed to say that me saying "100%" or "complete confidence" instead of you saying "99% confidence" is me trying to misrepresent your position. Unless you want. But that wouldn't be a strong case. But you can if you'd like.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Okay I ended up not getting to BoomFrog right now because I spent too much time focusing on this, so there's going to be a slight delay of an hour or two. Sorry for the inconvience Ran

 

[Jackrito]

Interesting. Why not vote me who is the bottom of your list?

Partly because you gave reasons for being busyb and I expect you to do more. Laser has the benefit of being widely townread off one post so more useful to pressure there

 

[Wiisp]

I pick tomorrow to do reads on this game and if I don't you can just vote me for slanking

 

[Maven89]

I pick tomorrow to do reads on this game and if I don't you can just vote me for slanking

I will hold you to this

 

[Wiisp]

I will hold you to this

Kek
I am still waiting for yours

 

[Maven89]

Most of the games I have played with Sabrar, where I was scum, and he was town, he would be playing with the setup in mind. So is it not natural for me to expect that again?

 

[Wiisp]

ranmaru
Hey send me a scum game, k thanks

 

[ranmaru]

Summer Bash [Town]
Basic Mafia [Scum]

 

[Wiisp]

didnt help has much as I wanted
I would still like to think there is like a
Post size ratio that makes you more likely to be town
I don't recall seeing any bit of a fluff at all in either the town game you posted, or the one I was in with you
the mafia game had a fair bit

I would still rather base my read on you off this game
and right now, I am at, "this dude is at about 90%" in terms of being town

 

[Wiisp]

Most of the games I have played with Sabrar, where I was scum, and he was town, he would be playing with the setup in mind. So is it not natural for me to expect that again?

ranmaru
flesh out the above for me, what does this mean in terms of Sabrar's alignment

 

[ranmaru]

I haven't played any other games besides on here. In terms of Sabrar, he gave a good explanation for why he hasn't. This is a closed setup, and usually the setups we played were open or semi-open. I also have more reason to believe he is town simply because he *is* scum hunting and is the one to be doing it the most, in my eyes.

 

[Wiisp]

anyways like I said, see y'all tomorrow

 

[ranmaru]

My reads are nearly finished, I'll post them when page top arrives.

 

[Wiisp]

Jack and Ranmaru pretty much have the only reads of Ninja I like
I feel like they are taking the middle ground

while everyone else is on either the scale of
Ninja is just obvious wolf

or Ninja is town because some form of TWTBAW

 

[ranmaru]

I've had a hands off approach with Ninja, to give him space to breathe, so I think I mostly slowed down in response to your request.

 

[ranmaru]

I also will be responding to any questions directed to me after I post my reads. Any help to page top is appreciated.

 

[Pythag]

How do you mean, like you want to get your reads post to be the top of the page?

 

[ranmaru]

Yes I do. So that's after post 400.

 

[Pythag]

I see. Ran, did you ever answer my question with regard to 3Ds?

 

[ranmaru]

I didn't, I'll do that momentarily.

 

[ranmaru]

Bump.