Wiisp
I was callin him potential scum because he hadn't actually done anything besides speak in emojis.
When he stopped and actually gave an analysis, he immediately became a lot less suspicious.
And I've never played with Neighbor, so I assumed you couldn't have any other role with Neighbor. Which of course, apparently isn't the case.
I think I believe Ninja. We know for a fact that Ninja messed up. As town or scum he made a mistake. So the question is which reality makes the most sense.
Weird things Ninja has done:
1) Claim neighbor with little benefit and without consulting neighbors if it was okay.
2) Thought Wiisp was in the neighbor chat.
3) Claimed only one PM then changed later to say there were two.
Town-Ninja
1) Thought that LaserGuy was confirmed town. Saw that LG was getting pressured and needed help. Checked that role-claiming was legal, was told you should only do it with a definitive result, then claimed. It's reckless to not check with the neighbors first, but we know 3DS is, if nothing else, not a careful person.
2) Confused Xiivi and Wiisp in chat, which means he wasn't paying very much attention. That fits with the idea that he thought they were confirmed town.
3) Lastly, forgot about his second role PM and didn't bother to double check before confirming it. This is also a pretty big screwup, especially since it was obviously a big deal and he had time to check it, but again, we know Ninja isn't careful.
Scum-Ninja
1) Thought that neighbor would be taken as a guaranteed town and wanted to get it out there? He'd know this was false, and I don't think 3DS is on the level where he could fake a mistake like that.
2) The Wiisp error could be that he's mafia with Wiisp, and wiisp not noticing that is pretty weird. Also Wiisp did go for 3DS pretty hard right after that slip so a bussing scummate fits.
3) 2nd role PM leans heavily to scum. If he thought that his mafia PM was a secret he'd claim only 1 PM, and then later his partner would inform him in Day chat that it should have been 2 PMs. This fit's far too well.
Alright. 1 doesn't make any sense from scum perspective, 2 is pretty neutral and 3 is more likely from scum. Still #1 really doesn't make sense from scum perspective. I don't think we are doomed to lynch 3DS necessarily. There's LOTS of opportunity for things to happen in later days and I've seen what look like hopeless cases end up confirmed town. I'm going to look for scum elsewhere today unless someone can come up with a believable logic for scum ninja to claim neighbor.
LaserGuy : if you conclude in #132 that I'm scum who knew what you were doing, why do you not entertain the possibility that your reads on others is tainted by the simple fact that I would warn my buddies?
