Oasis Mafia - Over!

[ranmaru]

Possible ScumUP voted Boom so Boom could omgus him, since Boom doesn't seem to really have a direction. Notice how that's the case?

 

[ranmaru]

You say revealing the neighbors was calculated, but calculated to do what? If he was advised be an experienced scummate, what do you imagine the experienced mate was trying to accomplish?

I said that. What's the flaw in the logic?

Wtf mate, that's illegal. You vote me while explicitly saying you aren't giving an explanation. That's an implicit promise to explain yourself later. Now it just feels like you are flailing about randomly.

##Unvote
##UtopianPoyzin

 

[ranmaru]

Before that, Boom was voting Maven. Before that, he was voting Jack. Yet, Sabrar made a good point that I will show you all.

 

[ranmaru]

Spoiler: BoomFrog

My first reaction to #33 was that BF can't be buddies with LaserGuy. I believe his reaction to my request would have been quite different in that case. After that there is really not much content until #173. To note BF did a gambit very similar to LG in an old game as Town, so his silence is not necessarily a sign of scummyness. Regarding #173 he makes a good point against #Jackrito, I will come back to the rest once I formed my own opinion on the other players. I will come back to #194 as well, I don't see at this point how Jackrito's proactivity would indicate the wrongness of his previous theory as it relates to a different aspect of his content... And actually that's it so far. What immediately strikes me as weird that he calls me reserved and wants to wait for more of my content while not providing much of his own.
...
And now that I have reviewed Jackrito I still don't get it. Please explain what you like in his later content, how it moved the game forward. Please don't focus on his interaction with Ninja for reasons given.

 

[ranmaru]

##Unvote
Jackrito's been far more proactive and that really messes up my earlier theory. Also, I like that Pythag is trying to throw 3DS a line and let him help himself if he is town.

##Maven

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar is saying that Boom didn't have a good reason to move off of Jackrito. Boom's original issue with Jack was him not analyzing enough, not being proactive enough. Then, he's voting Maven, and then omgusing UP. (Who at the same time, isn't really doing much either)

So in a way, it's a weird interaction between the both of them. I think this just shows that Boom isn't really doing as much to progress town's win condition.

 

[ranmaru]

Ran is very capable of being town and being wrong. My opinion of your slot has gone down a little. I expected town-Pythag to stick to his own opinion. You've been consistantly defending the possibility of town-Ninja.

I also don't like this quote from Boom.

 

[Wiisp]

#icaughtscumboomfirst

 

[ranmaru]

Now talk to me about Jack.

 

[Wiisp]

Why do I have to talk about Jack today, I don't get why day 1 we have to read everyone

He is just not someone I want to evaluate today, leave me be

 

[ranmaru]

I was asking you since you have the most experience with him. I'm trying to solve the game. I was also wondering what you expect out of town jack, since you gave jack's scum meta.

 

[Jackrito]

Why do I have to talk about Jack today, I don't get why day 1 we have to read everyone

He is just not someone I want to evaluate today, leave me be

I want you to as well tbh, I feel like we keep skateing around the issue of each other. We both see each other as potential scum it seem, and neither of us are doing much with it. The style that I have this makes more sense from me, you I would expect to try and resolve me more.

 

[LaserGuy]

I think if irl is an issue BF would ask for replacement instead. He's an experienced player, Ninja is a newbie. Sacrificing BF for Ninja when it's not even guaranteed that we don't lynch Ninja immediately after has very negative expected value.

FWIW I think Boom as scum would definitely try to defend scum Ninja. Not to the point of sacrificing himself, but I do feel that boom has a fondness for new players and would take more risks to try to save them.

I kind of feel like Ninja wouldn't have been flailing so much if he had a buddy like Boom though. Have to check the timestamps for when Ninja changed relative to Boom posts but I'm on mobile so I can't easily atm.

 

[LaserGuy]

Are we sure sabrar is town?
This isn't shade
ranmaru
Your read of sabrar is still town, correct?

And fine
##vote Boom

I'm pretty sure this is Town Sabrar. He is not this proactive and aggressive on D1 as scum I don't think.

 

[BoomFrog]

Wow, well this is probably going to take up the time I was going to spend rereading Jack. Let me get to a computer and address this...

 

[BoomFrog]

Also, not urgent anymore, but can someone give me a tip on how to search just all posts of one player in this thread? I couldn't get it to work.

 

[ranmaru]

Ignore everyone but that one person.

 

[Z25]

Why do I have to talk about Jack today, I don't get why day 1 we have to read everyone

He is just not someone I want to evaluate today, leave me be

Because we have long phases and that’s a townie think to do? If you don’t want to fine but that’s not really a good reason

 

[Pythag]

I also don't like this quote from Boom.

Why not?

 

[ranmaru]

He doesn't have prior history with you, and that reason to lower your position in his reads list is weak. Everyone has opinions and how they change vary.

 

[Jackrito]

Ranmaru
Z25
Sabrar
Pythag
laserguy
Wisp
UP
Maven
3DSN
Boomfrog

This is where I'm at I think still not sold on Laser, but he is at least better then the others because I at least know where he stands on people and is moving the game foward to a degree. I still feel like they is something lacking at times, but worry about that later in the game because others are far worse for now.

I have liked a lot of pythag recent stuff as I said eariler, he has more active role now and I find him less passive which was my issue before.

Top 3 has not changed apart from I moved Z25 up because I seem to agree with his thoughts the most espically when it comes to Ninja. He just seems to have a town mindset as well.

Wisp is in the same spot more because of how bad others are then anything that he did himself. This whole flavor thing I could potentially see as scum intent since it gives scum info, but think he would do it as town. I still have no idea where he stands though and his lack of working me out is bothering me now. Also how his vote keeps swapping between Ninja and Boom all game.

UP went down partly because he has not done anything in a long time, and his posts feel overly defensive and readlists are still a issue. I feel like he still has a chance of being town though since he seems like the type who just always looks bad. His play now reminds me a bit of token at times when he was town. I don't understand what he is doing at all. I could lynch here today but feel higher chance of hit in bottom 3

Maven is just doing nothing him wanting to know case on UP is only thing I remember him doing and did nothing with it. I know nothing of his meta, but others seem to say he is always inactive, but offers more if town when he does come. So far that seems to fit his scum game then since he has done nothing and offered little. I'm still wondering why he asked me for my town reads at once point as well it was so weird. 691 is intresting as well with his view on scum roles. I'm not really sure of his reads apart from a dislike of Ranmaru

Ninja just has to die for the good of the town and game. Leaving this level of uncertainty today is going to cost us in the long run if somehow he is town. The chances of that seem small though since nothing he has done makes sense and the tone shifts are a big red flag like I said eariler. His flip on UP also makes no sense and seems like he just wants to go aganist popular view. This could be bad town but also more like he is trying to distance but does not know how. I don't like their readlists either espically since I went from null to town when I did nothing.


Boom has being the least impressive still I agree with Ranmaru view on how he see's ninja. I also still don't like how he backed off me as others have pointed out. Add that to the fact he seemed like wanting to get back on me when Ranmaru brought it up bothers me. He seems to think I'm scum but just won't push it. How anti he seems to Ranmaru being active as well I find odd, since I have doubts on Ranmaru, but would not stop them trying to move game foward when done nothing wrong. Shade pf pytag also seems uncalled for when he says their read went down of them for following Ranmaru. They are just signs of trying to discredit Ranmaru all over Page21. Not really a fan of his push on UP either where he translates UP posts that is a easy way to misrep to make someone look scum

 

[Sabrar]

Also, not urgent anymore, but can someone give me a tip on how to search just all posts of one player in this thread? I couldn't get it to work.

Top right corner there is the Search button. Go to the thread (doesn't matter where), open up search, select 'This thread' on the right, copy the player in the 'Member' field, hit Search. It works for me without issues.

 

[BoomFrog]

BoomFrog What I'm wondering is, in your #173, you felt that Ninja was caught noob scum. Now because of your theory in #350, you ignore that point. You seem to be ignoring his play afterwards, especially the change in playtyle/tone. Why is this?

I didn't ignore his play, I'm trying to evaluate it. I've been listening to and considering your points, and I do keep considering that he might be scum. I was replying to Sabrar but the below thinking was prompted by your points as well.

He's acting like he is being encouraged to keep trying but is still pessimistic. Which, is exactly what has happened in thread, so that doesn't indicate coaching. And no scummate would suggest attacking Ran, so that was definitely an independent action. In theory a scummate might have said something like, "find someone new scummy and go after them to show you are scum hunting" and 3DS went for the pure OMGUS. But, from the perspective of town-3DSNinja he knows Ran is wrong and gunning for him hard so that fits.

Basically both theories can fit, but newbie-town-flailing-and-alone 3DSNinja fits more easily.

I just realized. BoomFrog why haven't you responded to my #484? I also want to see an updated reads list from you today. Do you have the time to do so? You said you are busy, that is fine. Yet you haven't set up a time that you could update your reads list. You haven't been clear about that yet you harp on me for not

I didn't respond because I could see you beleived the point, but it didn't convince me to change my mind, but I didn't see any way to convince you to change your mind without getting into deep WIFOM speculation. I'm not going to commit to a specific time to update my reads. Other things in my schedule get higher priority and mafia fits in when I have time. Honestly at this point 50/50 on me having time to actually update reads at all D1. With a bunch of new faces and almost all experienced players it's going to be hard to get better then random at picking a wolf D1.

Boom liked Maven's #771 and Wisp's #739. I just wanted to point that out. To me it seems like Boom supporting those (attacking me) or being attacked by me (Wisp). It could be another reason but it just feels disingenuous to me.

I've been liking posts that I mostly agreed with. Maven saying you are putting out a lot of hot air echoed my thoughts on you perfectly. You are projecting being supremly confident, but from what I recall that is how you behaved as town in CrossOver. So it's not an attack on your alighnment, in fact it's giving me a town read of you. But I know you are self aware about it, so I'm always keeping an eye on if it's natural over-confidence or faked over-confidence.

I don't recall why I liked Wiisps post there. Probably:

Evaluating Ninja has been hard, a flip flop is quite reasonable because I am uninformed and that slot is a disaster

Which is true. I felt your attack on Wiisp was incorrect (not unreasonable, but incorrect), Wiisp has had a lot of filler posts, but they show a townie mindset every once in a while and try to push the game forward. They are trying to solve.

Boom is scum. He's positioning himself to look good on Ninja's flip while ignoring Ninja's play. I no longer believe and support a Ninja lynch. (#173, #350)

Here's the meat of the issue. I almost preemptively said something because I felt this was coming. I make scarily accurate reads based on small bits of information. In one of my last games with Zen I blew his mind by guessing something about Plytho's motivations D1. Zen wanted to lynch me all game because he thought it was a sign of TMI. At the end of the game when all was revealed he said something like, "Wow you really are just that good." I have done this and been wrong before, I basically lost a game to cemper because I gave him a pass all game due to a single (turns out manufactured) "town-slip" D1. But generally I'm right. The sticking point for me here is 3DSNinja thought that neighbor ment confirmed town. That wasn't coached, no scummate suggested that. It is possible he was just saying anything to try to find an excuse for his claim, but most likely he really beleived that. And he can't have believed that if he was scum. I've learned my lesson from the cemper incident, I won't give him a pass all game, but I'm giving him a pass D1.

And yes, it sucks to have your first game of mafia (for a while) just end D1 because you didn't get it. So yeah, I'm probably giving him a little extra leeway because of that.

Also, everyone just piling on one cadidate doesn't give us much to analyse D2. Someone has to defend the lame duck.

BF can also be confident in his reads. There is a small chance for town!BF to really think that and wanting to prevent a mislynch.

I'm quite surprised you used the word small here.

 

[BoomFrog]

Side note: This is town Ran. Not that this is a shocking revelation, but it's good to confirm it. After our experience in Crossover Ran was going to get paranoid about me at some point. If this attack never came I'd have been suspicious. I thought we'd wait until at least D2 though.

 

[BoomFrog]

Scum Boom could also theoretically want you to have this same mindset, then get lynched himself and essentially clear ninja. Who would the new playerness going on would look better to town upon Scum Booms flip.

scum!BF might do this if it were any other player. Not for Ninja. Not the BF I know.

Sabrar's right. Even being busy I still want to play the game, and I DELIGHT in being a wolf at endgame. I would be willing to pull something like this to win the game, but not D1 and not for a noob. If I were scummates with Ninja I wouldn't have the confidence that he could go the distance without me.

 

[ranmaru]

I think the crux of the issue here Boom, is how you prioritized your time in thread. That being, defending Ninja over re-reading Jack, which you are doing today, two days from deadline.

 

[Pythag]

He doesn't have prior history with you, and that reason to lower your position in his reads list is weak. Everyone has opinions and how they change vary.

That's an interesting way of reading it. I saw it more as "I expect any town player to stick to their opinions" not necessarily "I expect this from pythag"

 

[ranmaru]

Another thing Boom: If you felt that something I said about Wisp was incorrect, you could have directly addressed me so I could sort them better, and therefore lead town to having a better chance of determining scum. Yet you didn't do this.

 

[ranmaru]

That just feels like you have been present in thread, reading, and observing, yet not really showing results.

 

[BoomFrog]

I think the crux of the issue here Boom, is how you prioritized your time in thread. That being, defending Ninja over re-reading Jack, which you are doing today, two days from deadline.

I think the chance that ninja is town and I'm the only one to defend them is a lot higher then the chance Jack is scum and I'm the only one to catch them.

Another thing Boom: If you felt that something I said about Wisp was incorrect, you could have directly addressed me so I could sort them better, and therefore lead town to having a better chance of determining scum. Yet you didn't do this.

I'd already said what I thought about Wiisp in my reads list. I didn't have new info to influence you with. If the wagon on Wiisp had gotten serious I'd have waited a bit to see who went for it then come to Wiisp's defense.

 

[ranmaru]

Sabrar LaserGuy What are your conclusions on Boom after these events?

 

[Z25]

I didn't ignore his play, I'm trying to evaluate it. I've been listening to and considering your points, and I do keep considering that he might be scum. I was replying to Sabrar but the below thinking was prompted by your points as well.




I didn't respond because I could see you beleived the point, but it didn't convince me to change my mind, but I didn't see any way to convince you to change your mind without getting into deep WIFOM speculation. I'm not going to commit to a specific time to update my reads. Other things in my schedule get higher priority and mafia fits in when I have time. Honestly at this point 50/50 on me having time to actually update reads at all D1. With a bunch of new faces and almost all experienced players it's going to be hard to get better then random at picking a wolf D1.


I've been liking posts that I mostly agreed with. Maven saying you are putting out a lot of hot air echoed my thoughts on you perfectly. You are projecting being supremly confident, but from what I recall that is how you behaved as town in CrossOver. So it's not an attack on your alighnment, in fact it's giving me a town read of you. But I know you are self aware about it, so I'm always keeping an eye on if it's natural over-confidence or faked over-confidence.

I don't recall why I liked Wiisps post there. Probably:
Which is true. I felt your attack on Wiisp was incorrect (not unreasonable, but incorrect), Wiisp has had a lot of filler posts, but they show a townie mindset every once in a while and try to push the game forward. They are trying to solve.


Here's the meat of the issue. I almost preemptively said something because I felt this was coming. I make scarily accurate reads based on small bits of information. In one of my last games with Zen I blew his mind by guessing something about Plytho's motivations D1. Zen wanted to lynch me all game because he thought it was a sign of TMI. At the end of the game when all was revealed he said something like, "Wow you really are just that good." I have done this and been wrong before, I basically lost a game to cemper because I gave him a pass all game due to a single (turns out manufactured) "town-slip" D1. But generally I'm right. The sticking point for me here is 3DSNinja thought that neighbor ment confirmed town. That wasn't coached, no scummate suggested that. It is possible he was just saying anything to try to find an excuse for his claim, but most likely he really beleived that. And he can't have believed that if he was scum. I've learned my lesson from the cemper incident, I won't give him a pass all game, but I'm giving him a pass D1.

And yes, it sucks to have your first game of mafia (for a while) just end D1 because you didn't get it. So yeah, I'm probably giving him a little extra leeway because of that.

Also, everyone just piling on one cadidate doesn't give us much to analyse D2. Someone has to defend the lame duck.


I'm quite surprised you used the word small here.

I bolded this part because I don’t fully agree with this mindset.

Given their sporadic behavior, it’s quite possible they didn’t consult a teammate or one was not available before they decided to claim that. A noob scum would not necessarily think to get feedback for something like that first and foremost, even experienced scum could try different techniques.

A great example is flavorless mafia where Pokechu claimed a role they knew was likely getting them lynched. It was just something they wanted to try. A scum team doesn’t always operate as a team, so scum ninja may not have been use to consulting people and went ahead with their gambit thinking it would look good.

 

[BoomFrog]

Z25 You misunderstood my point. I'm not saying "he can't be scum because he wasn't coached". I'm saying this "claim you think neighbor is confirmed town" isn't a ploy that anyone would think of. I garuntee it was generated naturally by a sincere misunderstanding. It's not the kind of lie people generate. The "my old forum only had town-roles" and "are we allowed to role claim?" thoughts perfectly fit that story.

 

[BoomFrog]

Wiisp and Jackrito If I'm scum why did I defend 3DSNinja?

 

[Jackrito]

Wiisp and Jackrito If I'm scum why did I defend 3DSNinja?

Well they are a couple of reasons. the obv one is that he is your scum teammate. The other is that you know he is town since you are scum so are trying to take the moral high ground to a degree so you can shame those that lynch him and avoid any blame that comes from an mislynch The third option is you are town and have no knowledge and just believe that he is town and don't want to get a mislynch. I sort of get this mindset because I for a awhile was also defending Ninja until some of his more recent posts. All of these are possible reasons the outcome more depends on your overall play.

Really not sure why I get asked all the random questions off people.

 

[BoomFrog]

Yes, those are all possible, but which of those three scenarios do you think is most likely?

Really not sure why I get asked all the random questions off people.

Because people after trying to read you. You have posted a lot but you haven't days a lot. Most of what you've said send to be something someone else has already said, or fairly neutral middle of the road stuff. I've only gotten one tiny glimmer that makes me think you are town, but it's mostly pretty bland which is why I've found you vaguely scummy all D1.

Do you think that's an unreasonable read of you?

 

[Wiisp]

Wiisp and Jackrito If I'm scum why did I defend 3DSNinja?

lmao
my response to this is, "no"

 

[Wiisp]

All of these are possible reasons the outcome more depends on your overall play.

this pretty much says it best
that post in particular by Boom is nothing but NAI

 

[Z25]

Z25 You misunderstood my point. I'm not saying "he can't be scum because he wasn't coached". I'm saying this "claim you think neighbor is confirmed town" isn't a ploy that anyone would think of. I garuntee it was generated naturally by a sincere misunderstanding. It's not the kind of lie people generate. The "my old forum only had town-roles" and "are we allowed to role claim?" thoughts perfectly fit that story.

This is very possible but again if scum ninja had no correlation that the neighborhood normally has scum in it due to lack of exposure and didn’t consult a teammate, does it really sound that farfetch’d that he would not know this prior and think it could work to his advantage?

While it can go either way, his other behavior doesn’t look great and makes me lean more towards the scum side then town side.

 

[BoomFrog]

Ranmaru - Doing everything I expect of town Ran. The jumping around shows he is genuinely agonizing over his reads which he wouldn't be as scum. If he'd stayed 100% on Ninja till day end I'd have been worried.
Z25 - Seems like they are trying to solve the game. I remember deciding very early that they are probably town, I think based on an interaction with the early 3DS situation. If 3DS flips scum I'll reconsider but assuming 3DS is town then Z25 was against an easy lynch early. Their progression to being for the ninja lynch seems natural and I think it's genuine, even if I disagree with the conclusion.
Wiisp - A few good moments of actually caring about the game state and trying to get things moving in a more useful direction. I think wolf-Wiisp would have let things fester more. The refusal to analyze Jack was blatant and deliberate, they weren't trying to hide the fact that they were avoiding the evaluation. Which I think is a townie way to do it and I can guess some reasons which I assume will come out in later days.
pythag - Infrequent posts, but I like the perspective in most of them (with the one exception of sheeping Ran). Hasn't stated many bold opinions, but was against early pressure on Ninja. Assuming Ninja is town, pythag is likely town, but this isn't as strong a feeling as with Z25, as I feel his change to decide to lynch Ninja was completely "I think he's town but I'll follow Ran"
Sabrar - Playing a solid game as expected regardless of alignment. Post quality and volume are not alignment indicative for Sabrar. I'm keeping my eye out for a few tells which would be obviously counter productive to mention in detail, but I haven't seen any significant evidence of scumminess. Mild town lean.
LaserGuy - Seems really checked out for the 2nd half of D1. I can understand the feeling after doing a big gambit and analysis that you feel like you've earned it to sit back and watch, but I'd like an updated read list at least. Won't be lynched D1, but could be scum feeling relaxed if town is way off base with our wagons targets.
Jackrito - As I said above, they haven't had any unique insights, and haven't pushed anything in a townie direction, they've just been sitting back saying a bunch of neutral stuff. I did see one glimmer or something townie so I'd rather not lynch here D1.
Maven - I don't know his meta, but he's pretty impossible to read with the minimal amount of content and context I've got. From everyone's description of his meta this seems pretty normal, so I guess we'll just have to see. The fact that he really wanted to know what the case on UP was is promising, I assume he just didn't get a response in time. Hopefully he comes in with some real content, but he's going to be harder to sort in later days then everyone else so I wouldn't mind him as a compromise lynch.
3DSNinja - Dispite the big "neighborhood" misunderstanding issue, his tone change is concerning, and the PM issue is more likely from scum-Ninja. Disappearing again when things are looking like he won't be lynched is also not a good sign. Everything besides the neighboorhood thing point to scum, so I'm not that against his lynch, I just think we can do better.
UtopianPoyzin - Previous points still stand. Disappeared completely since then, but I won't hold that against him since I assume that is a RL issue not lurking. He doesn't seem like the type to lurk. Yes, Pythag and Ran say he is always kinda like this, but I think the inconsistency is real and shows he wasn't actually acting with purpose in the early game. Town can act spastically, but they do it to generate reads, not just because. I don't take the TooWolfyToBeWolf defense. (or however that acronym goes)